Homework # 1

1. [20 pts.] A certain polymer is used for evacuation systems for aircraft. It is important that the polymer be resistant to the aging process. Twenty specimens of polymer were used in an experiment. Ten were assigned randomly to be exposed to the accelerated batch aging process that involved exposure to high temperatures for 10 days. Measurements of tensile strength of the specimens were made and the following data were recorded on tensile strength in psi. No aging 327 322 318 317 325 318 316 329 328 321 319 314 315 311 309 318 303 304 301 305 Aging a) Use Minitab to draw a histogram diagram for each sample. Make sure you provide a selfexplanatory caption for your charts including a description of the data being plotted and its units. b) Use Minitab to provide a summary of the descriptive statistics for each sample. Interpret the results for each sample. c) Comment on the similarity or lack of similarity between the mean and median of each sample. d) From your plot, does it appear as if the aging process has had an effect on the tensile strength of this polymer? Why?

Histogram (with Normal Curve) of Aging

2.0
Mean StDev N 309.9 6.488 10

Count of specimens

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

295

300

305

310 315 Aging Tensile strength (psi)

320

325

In this Histogram diagram we have plotted the results for the ten specimens of polymer that were randomly assigned to be exposed to the accelerated batch aging process that involved exposure to high temperatures for 10 days. Measurements of tensile strength of the specimens were recorded in psi and were divided into 9 intervals of equal size.

Minitab summary of the descriptive statistics for the specimens of polymer exposed to the aging process
Variable Aging Count 10 Mean 309.90 TrMean 309.88 StDev 6.49 N for IQR 12.00 Variance 42.10 Minimum 301.00 Q1 303.75 Median 310.00

Frequency

Variable Aging

Q3 315.75

Maximum 319.00

Range 18.00

Mode *

Mode 0

Skewness 0.07

Kurtosis -1.57

For this statistics we used 10 specimens of polymer, all exposed to the accelerated batch aging process. The central tendency of the tensile force of the specimens was calculated their mean, median and mode. The mean came out to be 309.9 psi and the median of 310 psi. None of the values for tensile force are the same so no mode could be calculated. The smallest measure of strength was 301 psi and the largest was 319 psi with a range of 18 psi and a standard deviation of 6.49 psi. The results have a variance of 42.10 psi. With Q1 which is the median of the first half of the observations and Q3 , the mean of the second half of the observations we obtained an interquartile range (IQR) of 12 psi. The histogram plot shows that the results are symmetric this makes the skewness very low at 0.07 and that the shape is unimodal. Kurtosis measures the peakedness of a distribution, in thi case since we obtaines a kurtosis of -1.57 and given that the normal distribution has a kurtosis of 3, we can say that we have a less peaked distribution.

Histogram (with Normal Curve) of No aging

3.0 2.5
Mean StDev N 322.1 4.864 10

Frequency

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

In this Histogram diagram we have plotted the results for the ten specimens of polymer that were not exposed to the accelerated aging process. Measurements of tensile strength of the specimens were recorded in psi.

Count of specimens

315

320 325 No aging Tensile strength (psi)

330

Minitab summary of the descriptive statistics for the specimens of polymer NOT exposed to the aging process
Variable No aging Count 10 Mean 322.10 TrMean 322.00 StDev 4.86 N for IQR 9.50 Variance 23.66 Minimum 316.00 Q1 317.75 Median 321.50

Variable No aging

Q3 327.25

Maximum 329.00

Range 13.00

Mode 318

Mode 2

Skewness 0.21

Kurtosis -1.71

In both cases the mean and median are extremely similar. Varying by 0.10 psi for the aged specimens and by 0.60 psi for the normal specimens. After analyzing our plots there does appear to be an effect of the

4. [25 pts.] ABC Co. is presenting efficiency problems in its delivery process. The table below shows the frequency results of the problems that cause poor efficiency: No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Activity Waiting for cement load area availability. Busy truck receiving or dispatching materials. Waiting for the supervisor to give dispatching forms. Waiting for loader availability. Waiting for loaders operator. Lack of water Dirt stock out Rocks stock out Truck maintenance Waiting for the next order Frequency of occurrence 45 100 5 900 10 70 5 7 50 3 Cost per occurrence $50 $40 $50 $30 $50 $100 $250 $200 $900 $20

Construct a Pareto chart and write an interpretation of the graph. Clearly describe how you would approach an improvement initiative of the companys delivery process.
Y X

Pareto Chart of Activity

90000 80000 70000 80 60 40 20 0 100

Total Cost

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Activity Total Cost Percent Cum % 9 4 6 2 1 8 7 45000 27000 7000 4000 2250 1400 1250 50.7 30.4 7.9 4.5 2.5 1.6 1.4 50.7 81.2 89.1 93.6 96.1 97.7 99.1 5 500 0.6 99.7 3 10 250 60 0.3 0.1 99.9 100.0

In the left Y-plane you find the total cost for improving each problem. In the X-plane you find all the problems in order of cost, from the most expensive to the least. (Each number makes reference to the table above were you can find the frequency of occurrence and the cost per occurrence for each problem) On the right Y-plane you find the percentage of each problem in relation the the total cost of improving all the problems. TOTAL COST: $88,710.00

Percent

5. [30 pts.] Historical data is often used in marketing to drive estimates of future demand. A common estimate (or forecast) used to predict future demand is the moving average. This forecasting method considers a weighted average where the most recent observations receive the same weight, while all the remaining observations receive a weight of zero. Of course, the value of m is a parameter of the method, and it is up to the user to fine tune it for the application of his(her) choice. To compute an -period moving average use the following equation: () ( ) where:
number of observations to consider in the moving average ( ) actual observation at period most recent data period ( ) forecast for period

Suppose the monthly sales for a particular product for the past 20 months has been as follows:

Month

Demand A(t)

()

()

()

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

15.00 18.00 13.00 17.00 12.00 15.00 18.00 24.00 20.00 27.00 33.00 31.00 39.00 39.00 41.00 35.00 55.00 41.00 59.00 61.00

--16.50 15.50 15.00 14.50 13.50 16.50 21.00 22.00 23.50 30.00 32.00 35.00 39.00 40.00 38.00 45.00 48.00 50.00

---15.33 16.00 14.00 14.66 15.00 19.00 20.66 23.66 26.66 30.33 34.33 36.33 39.66 38.33 43.66 43.66 51.66

----15.75 15.00 14.25 15.50 17.25 19.25 22.25 26.00 27.75 32.50 35.50 37.50 38.50 42.50 43.00 47.50

a) For this example, apply a moving average with to forecast the monthly sales for months 3 through 20. b) Use How do these results compare to the ones in (a) for months 4 - 20? c) Use How do these results compare to the ones in (a) and (b) for months 5 - 20? d) The forecast standard error (i.e, the standard deviation of the forecasts) is a criterion used to compare forecasting models. What is the standard error for the demands estimates obtained with ? ? ? Which value of would you prefer? Why? e) The mean absolute deviation is another criterion used to compare forecasting models. The absolute deviation for any given period is the absolute difference between the forecast and the observed demand for the period. Once an absolute deviation is calculated for every single forecasting period, they are averaged to produce the estimate of the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the model. Calculate the mean absolute deviation for the models in (a), (b), and (c). Which value of would you prefer? Why? f) What are the similarities and dissimilarities of considering the cost of errors using forecast standard error and MAD? Justify your answer.