Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13, Issue 3, !

13 PRI"# ISS" $%&'((), E&ISS" $)&3()

*+IMA#E *,A"-ES A"D #,EIR E..E*#S /" /+#E"IA P+AI" 0 *ARA*A+ MI*R/RE-I/"
Diana V1"2#/R3 4R2D3+ES*35 1, Ion D/"A
1

University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Management, Economical Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development MA student, uc!arest, "# Marasti, sector 1, $11%&%, uc!arest, Romania, e'mail( radulescudiana1")gmail*com + University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Management, Economical Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development MA student, uc!arest, "# Marasti, sector 1, $11%&%, uc!arest, Romania, e'mail( ion,dona)ya!oo*com Corresponding author( ion,dona)ya!oo*com
Abstract In our country, the territory with increased risk from droughts, with a tendency to aridity and desertification even includes large areas of southern Oltenia region; we may consider this to be the most exposed to desertification in Romania. In this context, we analyzed the evolution of agriculture in micro area aracal !in the towns belonging to that micro"area# in the past decade, drawing out the dependence of production on climatic phenomenon. $or conditions in aracal micro area, the %eleaninov indices were calculated and these were correlated with the economic and financial information for the micro region. Our results have revealed that the maize crop is exposed to losses, and the least exposed is the sunflower. &heat performed relatively better than maize, as demonstrated by the reduction in the period of maize acreage and a slight increase in areas planted with winter wheat. 'he main conclusion drawn from research undertaken in aracal micro region is that agriculture is increasingly volatile to climate change variations from one production year to another, with direct implications on the financial results of farmers. Key words6 limate changes, production, %eleaninov indexes

I"#R/D3*#I/" -n Romania, t!e effects of climate c!ange !ave !ad and .ill !ave a significant impact on t!e development of natural conditions, agriculture and /iodiversity are t!e most vulnera/le areas to climate c!ange, given t!e dependence on climatic conditions and t!e negative ecological, economic and social c!anges affecting t!e sustaina/le development of a region* 0!e .eat!er can !ave /ot! a direct influence, reflected in agriculture losses, and year indirect impact on t!e economic gro.t! noticed in case of !ig! dependency on t!e farming sector 1"2* 3ur country !as a gro.ing vulnera/ility in intensity and fre4uency of climate e5tremes 6droug!t, floods, !eat, frost, pests and diseases, etc*7, producing significant losses in all sectors, especially in agriculture* 0!us, it is considered of t!e appro5imately 1%*8 million !a of agricultural land 6of .!ic! #*% million

!ectares of ara/le land7 soils affected /y long periods of droug!t and consecutive years are spread over an area of appro5* 8 million !a of agricultural land 6%9:7 and t!ose su/;ect to e5cess moisture in .et years 6a/out % million !a7* Droug!t /ecomes t!e limiting factor affecting crops on t!e largest areas, e5tent and intensity of t!is type of ris< demising annual fluid reduction of agricultural production of at least =$'"$: 192* 0erritories .it! increased ris< from droug!ts, .it! a tendency to aridity and desertification even include large areas of sout!ern 3ltenia considering t!at t!is region is most e5posed to t!ese p!enomena in Romania* 3f t!ermal ris<s affecting agricultural crops in 3ltenia >lain, t!ose .it! serious effects on production are t!e ma5imum temperatures a/ove t!e critical t!res!old of =+?@* 0!e amount of days of !eat, t!e deficit .idened from t!e air and ground .ater, causes ma;or production losses and calamity for spring crops, .!ic! in Auly and August, .!en t!e fre4uency is !ig! ris<
1

Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13, Issue 3, !13 PRI"# ISS" $%&'((), E&ISS" $)&3()

of t!ese p!enomena lies in t!e critical vegetation p!ase of flo.ering* -n 3ltenia >lain, !eat !as a !ig! fre4uency 6over =$: of t!e year7, t!e !ig!est in t!e .!ole country .it! 0eleorman >lain and Danu/e Valley to.ards Biurgiu* @limate c!ange effects on agricultural crops in t!e sout!ern part of Romania depend on local conditions of eac! site and t!e severity of c!anges in climate 1%2* So t!at t!e climate c!aracteristics can /e used effectively to determine t!e productive capacity of t!e land, it must /e CtrueC for t!e location to .!ic! it relates* 0o meet t!is goal it is necessary to determine not only t!e climate as a .!ole, /ut also t!e microclimate 6@aracal7 eac! portion of territory in t!e region 63ltenia7 11$2* -n t!is conte5t, .e /elieve t!at t!e study area 6micro area of @aracal7, increased tendency scorc!ing !eat and aridity of t!e climate are p!enomena t!at need to /e considered and efforts and financial investments s!ould /e intensified in order to create a favora/le fitoclimat, a competitive agriculture and a sustaina/le development 1#2* For t!is, present researc! consider annual turnover of climatic factors t!at determine crop yields significant variations from year to year and aims to <no.ing t!e impact of climatic varia/ility on yield* MA#ERIA+S A"D ME#,/DS -n t!e agro meteorological researc!, impact studies in agriculture are /ased on .eat!er data D climate and agro meteorological stations .it! agro meteorological soft.are and climatology arc!ive 6 arc!ive E-MF 7, as .ell as specialiGed measurements, p!enology, and /iometric production, made on standard platforms /ot! in t!e agro'meteorological .eat!er stations and soft.are, as .ell as production fields located near t!e .eat!er station* Fluctuation analysis of agro climatic resources t!roug! dynamic evolution of agro meteorologicalDagro climatic factors constitutes t!e /asic criterion to 4uantify agricultural droug!t impact on t!e vegetation, crop productivity 1=2* 0!is met!od of c!aracteriGation and evaluation of t!e

influence of climate varia/ility on t!e speciesDvarieties gro.n include monitoring of meteorological D climatic factors t!roug! t!e accumulation of plant evolution 6duration and completion of p!onological p!ases7 in con;unction .it! agricultural practice, i*e* cultivation tec!nology applied differently depending on t!e specific agropedoclimatic conditions* During t!e gro.ing season, field crops re4uirement !ave differentiated climatic conditions, .it! !ig!s in t!e critical p!ases of crop'specific consumption* Agrometeorological parameters evolving optimum necessary to carry out properly t!e p!ysiological processes of plant gro.t! and development are considered ris<Dstress factors .it! adverse effects on crop gro.t! status and ultimately on agricultural productions* Agropedoclimatic ris< types defined using agro meteorological and agro climatic indices s!o. t!at t!e !eat or fluid ris< D stress can /e classified according to t!e /asic criteria used in t!e analysis and evaluation of effects on eac! agricultural species 1&2 182* 0!e decline of t!e species cultivated productive potential is directly proportional to t!e intensity, fre4uency, se4uence and duration of action of distur/ances agro meteorological factors* 7inter 89eat !as a gro.ing season t!at fall generally /et.een +=$ and +"$ days, it depends on t!e variety gro.n, /ut especially t!e gro.ing climatic conditions* Status of vegetation varies t!roug!out t!e agricultural sout!, and from one year to anot!er, due to t!e different agropedoclimatic conditions* -n May'Aune .inter .!eat goes t!roug! t!e period of ma5imum sensitivity ' Ccritical periodC to environmental conditions ' temperature and precipitation, positive or negative deviations from t!e optimal values are more !armful to plants as t!ey vary in one direction or t!e ot!er 6positive or negative7 to t!e optimum 60a/le 17* -n t!is critical period, t!e droug!t associated .it! lo. atmosp!eric !umidity and !ig! ma5imum temperatures 6!eat days7 causes severe reduction in yields of .!eat 112*

Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13, Issue 3, !13 PRI"# ISS" $%&'((), E&ISS" $)&3() 0a/le 1( Re4uirements for air temperature 6degrees are correlated .it! eac! ot!er @elsius7 for .!eat in t!e critical period .!ic! case it is not necessary
Air temperature Het!al Minimum 3ptimal May I =" 9'1$ 1&'+$ Aune I =" 9'1$ 1&'++ Source( er/ecel and cola/* Mont!

directly, in to use only

some of t!em*
Ma5imum =$'=" =$'="

0a/le %( 0!ermal limits for .!eat, maiGe and sunflo.er

@rop 0!ermal limits 6degrees7 Minimum annual average A/solute For fructification For min* for and !arvesting green survival t!e /eans mass '& & '1$ '+$ /y '8 9 & & variety $ '+ 1+ 1$

Fumidity is t!e second ma;or important factor to .inter .!eat* 3rganic range favora/le for .!eat, from t!e point of vie. of precipitation recorded, is /et.een =8$ and 98" mm* Hatest e5perimental results from our country considers as optimal for t!e entire gro.ing season of .!eat, t!e amount of a/out &$$ mm rainfall 11$2 60a/le +7*
0a/le +( 0!e optimum of precipitation 6l Ds4 m7 in .inter .!eat D reference t!res!olds
-J J J-' -V "$,$ V 9$,$ V9$,$ V-"$,$ V--%$,$ -J' V--&$$

3ptimal annual average 11

Minter .!eat MaiGe Sunflo.er Source( 0eaci

--%$,$ &$,$ +$$,$ Source( 0eaci

3f t!ese .e selected Seleaninov inde5 t!at measures variations of p!enomena in different periods of t!e year, ta<ing into account t!e p!enomena normally seasonal fluctuations 6temperature and precipitation7(
SFR =

Mai:e Regarding maiGe crop re4uests to temperature, it is assumed t!at maiGe is a plant .it! !ig! re4uirements to temperature* 0emperature re4uirements of maiGe in t!e Ccritical periodC t!at corresponds to t!e mont!s of Auly are illustrated in t!e follo.ing ta/le 112 60a/le =7*
0a/le =( Re4uirements for air temperature 6degrees @elsius7 for maiGe in t!e critical period
Mont! Auly August Het!al $ $ Het!al 1$ 1& Air temperature Het!al Ave* daily temp* K += Ave* daily temp*+1 Het!al =+'== K =$

precipitation $*15 average temperature

As for !umidity, t!e conditions in our country, Llteanu 1+2 esta/lis!ed maiGe production per !ectare if t!e average rainfall totals e5ceed amounts greater t!an %$ mm in May, &$ mm in Aune and Auly respectively in 9$ mm in August* 0!e same aut!or considers optimal distri/ution of rainfall follo.ing( May &$'9$ mm, Aune, 1$$'1+$ mm, 1$$'1+$ mm in Auly, August, &$'9$ mm* For t!e t!ree test cultures ta<en in t!e t!ermal limits of survival and t!at ensures t!e /est results are presented in t!e follo.ing ta/le 11$2 60a/le %7* 0emperature and !umidity data a/ove are compared in agro climatic data/ase tests* Many, !o.ever, t!e agro'climatic indicators

Average inde5 .as calculated as t!e average of individual indices s!o.s t!e same c!aracteristics in different groups variation units* 0!ey .ere determined for t!e t!ree ma;or crops for micro area analyGed namely .!eat, maiGe and sunflo.er* Agro climatic indices of t!e type Seleaninov .ere used to calculate regression functions, .!ic! descri/e t!e dependence of a analytical c!aracteristic result and a c!aracteristic factor* Mit! its synt!etic nature and direction t!ey !ave e5pressed t!e relations!ip /et.een p!enomena* 0!e regression function mirrored t!e .ay t!e scope c!anged of c!ange c!aracteristic feature resultant factor, apart from t!e influence of ot!er features considered random, and t!erefore not included in t!e analysis* -n our analysis, regression function .as a linear feature evenly resultant, c!anging under t!e influence of c!anging factorial feature, t!e linear function t!at .e used .it! t!e formula( y N a O / 5,

Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13, Issue 3, !13 PRI"# ISS" $%&'((), E&ISS" $)&3()

.!ere y values resulting features depend only on 5 factor values* All ot!er factors are considered constant* Beometric regression coefficient / is t!e slope of t!e straig!t line* @oefficient .as calculated using t!e met!od of smallest s4uares* From t!e linear regression coefficient / and t!e correlation coefficient r t!ere .as manifested relation(
r,

r;

.!ere are standard medium deviations of r y, and 5 c!aracteristics, concrete indicators, e5pressed /y a certain unit of measure* 0!eir report s!o.ed t!at t!e linear regression coefficient s!o.s !o. many units of t!e varia/le y per one unit of t!e varia/le 5* -n our case t!e coefficient !as a negative correlation* 0!e correlation coefficient, used to determine t!e intensity correlation, .as calculated using t!e formula(
rN

Me t!en determined curve ad;ustment operation t!at .as useful, and !ad to /e doneP ta<ing into account t!e data t!at must /e ad;usted* For t!is t!ere .as used a continuous, depending on t!e ad;ustment of a num/er of t!ree parameters( temperature, rain, production* Regarding interpretation of Seleaninov inde5, it is measured /y SFR value for a given day, or t!e .eat!er siGes given /y @aracal station* -mpact 6on production7 is given /y compliance .it! certain values(

.!ere M is t!e average production, and R is t!e analytical ad;ustment value* 0!e conditions necessary to o/tain t!e /est yields are .!en t!e SFR S 61*$'1*%7* M!en it e5ceeds 1*%, t!e output .ill decrease due to e5cessive moisture, and .!en it drops /elo. 1*$, due to t!e droug!t* -n general, a related SFR- isolinear e4ual to $,"'$*& coincides .it! semi'desert climate conditions* RES3+#S A"D DIS*3SSI/"S #9e *aracal Micro area !as in its components, /eside city of @aracal, anot!er 9 localities 6 rastavTUu, uciniVu, Deveselu, 3/WrVia, Redea, Rotunda, 0raian and VlTdila7* Agriculture in t!is micro area is .ell represented, t!e follo.ing data is very elo4uent* -n t!e year +$1+ compared to t!e 3lt county, .!ose total area .as of "%# 9+9 !a, t!e micro'region .as appro5imately %8 &#& i*e* #:* A similar percentage still !olds in terms of agricultural area, t!e micro area @aracal !olding #*": of t!e agricultural area of 3lt @ounty* As ara/le land, t!e micro area of @aracal !ad, in t!e year +$1+ at t!e @ounty level, accounted for over 1$: of t!e total ara/le area*

.!ere( 5 values of factorial featuresP y ' values of resulting featuresP Q 5 standard medium deviation of t!e feature 5P Q y standard medium deviation of t!e feature yP n num/er of pairs of values o/served attri/utes of features 5 and y or
rN

.!ere( ' average of products 5y 6 and ' average of features 5 and y* For t!e calculation of t!e correlation coefficient t!ere .as used t!e formula(
%

Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13, Issue 3, !13 PRI"# ISS" $%&'((), E&ISS" $)&3()

-n +$1+, .!eat .as cultivated on an area of 1#"=# !ectares, representing 19*1: of t!e total area cultivated .it! .!eat in t!e @ounty of 3lt and .!eat production .as of =&#$" tones 61=*9: of t!e countyXs .!eat production7* MaiGe .as gro.n in +$1+, at t!e micro area level, on an area of 8$1" !a 6"*1": of t!e area cultivated .it! maiGe in 3lt @ounty7 and maiGe production in t!e same year totaled 1",""$ tons 69*&9: of t!e @ounty7* Sunflo.er .as gro.n in +$1+ on an area of a/out #9%$ !a 61#: of t!e county area planted .it! sunflo.er7 products o/tained /eing 91=" tones 61=*"=: of t!e @ounty7* -n t!e period +$$%'+$1+, t!e area under .!eat increased /y =*9:, t!e area under maiGe decreased /y %&*9: and t!e area under sunflo.er !as increased /y 9$:* During t!e same period .!eat production fluctuated /et.een a minimum of "# 1#9 tones in +$$" and a pea< of 9$,$$$ tons in +$11, t!e maiGe from a minimum of =1&& tones in +$$8 and a ma5imum of #%+# tones in +$$9, and t!e sunflo.er /et.een a minimum of 1" "%# tones in +$$8 and a pea< of =8,$$$ tons in +$$%* As s!o.n in ta/le ", fluctuations in production are very !ig!, as a direct conse4uence of c!anges in cultivated areas, especially t!e yields per !ectare*
0a/le "( 0!e average production of .!eat, maiGe and sunflo.er in areas of @aracal micro area, during +$$% ' +$1+ 6tonsD!ectare7
Hocality rastavTUu uciniVu @aracal Deveselu 3/WrVia Redea Rotunda 0raian VlTdila 0otal rastavTUu uciniVu @aracal Deveselu 3/WrVia Redea Rotunda 0raian VlTdila 0otal rastavTUu uciniVu @aracal Deveselu 3/WrVia Redea Rotunda +$$% =*= =*= +*1 =*= =*= =*= =*= =*= =*= =*+ =*& =*& =*& =*& =*& =*& =*& =*& =*& =*& 1*" 1*" 1*" 1*" 1*" 1*" 1*" +$$" +*" +*+ +*8 =*$ "*= +*9 +*9 =*$ +*" =*$ %*9 "*$ =*" %*$ =*9 8*9 %*" =*" +*" %*% +*" +*$ 1*= 1*% 1*= +*= +*9 +$$& $*# +*= 1*8 $*+ 1*$ 1+*# 1*9 1*& 1*# =*" 1*$ +*$ =*" +*# =*" =*$ =*% +*" ' +*8 $*= 1*" $*9 1*= 1*9 1*$ 1*# +$$8 +$$9 M!eat +*# 8*1 1*$ =*+ $*9 +*& $*9 =*1 $*8 +*& 1*% %*+ $*# +*9 $*" +*8 $*# =*$ 1*1 =*& MaiGe $*= 1*" $*" =*$ $*" %*% $*+ 1*+ ' 1*" $*8 +*+ $*8 +*8 ' +*$ $*8 +*$ $*" +*= Sunflo.er $*% 1*8 $*% 1*1 $*% $*8 $*1 1*+ $*% 1*+ 1*$ 1*9 $*" 1*= +$$# +*# +*9 +*% =*1 +*& =*9 =*1 +*9 +*9 =*1 %*$ =*= %*= "*" "*" =*" %*9 %*$ =*# %*= 1*9 1*& 1*% +*= 1*9 1*9 $*+ +$1$ +*# +*9 +*% =*1 +*& =*9 =*1 +*9 +*9 =*1 %*$ =*= %*= "*" "*" =*" %*9 %*$ &*$ %*1 1*9 1*& 1*% +*= $*+ 1*9 1*9 +$11 +*& +*9 ' ' +*+ =*" =*1 =*" ' 1*" %*# =*1 ' ' +*9 +*8 %*+ 9*= ' %*= 1*& +*= 1*9% +*" 1*& =*8 +*$ +$1+ =*$ $*# +*% +*& 1*# 1*8 +*% 1*% 1*= 1*& +*% 1*& +*% =*1 1*% +*8 1*= $*" +*& +*$ 1*1 1*+ 1*8 1*= 1*$ $*& $*&

Hocality 0raian VlTdila 0otal

+$$% 1*" 1*" 1*"

+$$" 1*8 1*& 1*#

+$$& 1*"& $*+ $*#

+$$8 $*= $*= $*&

+$$9 1*% 1*+ 1*"

+$$# +*+ 1*+ 1*&

+$1$ 1*$ 1*$ 1*"

+$11 +*+ 1*" +*"

+$1+ $*& 1*% 1*$

Source( Eational -nstitute of Statistics

-n t!e analyGed period, t!e strongest influence on productivity .as of climatic conditions* 0o commensurate t!e climate impact on crops, .e applied t!e inde5 Seleaninov over crops of .inter .!eat, maiGe and sunflo.er, ta<ing into account t!e gro.ing in features and ris<s of t!ese t!ree crops in various stages of development 6for .!eat ' April'Aune, for maiGe and sunflo.er ' April to August7* 0rying to correlate data on t!e production of .!eat, maiGe and sunflo.er, .it! t!e Seleaninov inde5 6/ased on temperature and precipitation7 t!ere .ere o/tained regression curves li<e t!ose in t!e follo.ing ta/le 60a/le &7*
0a/le &( @urves ad;ustment list
nStatio
*rop Seleaninov dependence curve ad<ustment &=Production -rap9ic Indices point +oss production

$*$1 M!eat #$ <gDindices point

*aracal

$*$1 MaiGe 18" <gD indices point

$*$1 Sunflo.er %" <gD indices point

Source( o.n calculations

Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13, Issue 3, !13 PRI"# ISS" $%&'((), E&ISS" $)&3()

Follo.ing t!e Seleaninov -nde5 in t!e last # years .e find t!at in four years 6+$$&, +$$8, +$$9 and +$1+7 t!ere .ere droug!ts, .!ic! led to t!e loss of production from all t!ree crops e5amined, only five years 6+$$%, +$$", +$$#, +$1$ and +$117 can /e considered normal in terms of temperature and precipitation 60a/le 87*
0a/le 8( Seleaninov -nde5 and deviation from normal values @aracal .eat!er station
+$$ % +$$ " +$$ & +$$ 8 +$$ 9 +$$ # +$1 $ +$1 1 +$1+

79eat Seleaninov -nde5 1,11 $,#9 $,9" $,9 1,$= 1,$& 1,$1 1,$1 $,9% %eleaninov -nde5 deviation from normal values 6percentages7 ' + 1" +$ ' ' ' ' 1% Mai:e Seleaninov -nde5 1,=+ 1,1" $,9= $,89 $,9+ 1,1 1,$9 1,$+ $,91 %eleaninov -nde5 deviation from normal values 6percentages7 ' ' 18 ++ 19 ' ' ' 1# Sunflo8er Seleaninov -nde5 1,=+ 1,1" $,9= $,89 $,9+ 1,1 1,$9 1,$+ $,91 %eleaninov -nde5 deviation from normal values 6percentages7 ' ' 18 ++ 19 ' ' ' 1# Source( o.n calculations

-n t!ese circumstances, .e find t!at farmers in t!e micro area @aracal lose in terms of significant production in t!is period, as reflected /y t!e Seleaninov inde5 60a/le 97(
0a/le 9( >roduction losses reflected /y t!e Seleaninov inde5 to normal values for .inter .!eat, maiGe and sunflo.er 6<g D !a7
+$$ % +$$ " +$$& +$$8 +$$9 +$$ # +$1 $ +$1 1 +$1+

+$$& over 8": in +$$8, almost &+: in +$$9 and &"*+: in +$1+7* Sunflo.er crop .as also affected /y t!e droug!t in most years, .it! =9*#: in +$$&, "$*=: in +$$8, %1*+: in +$$9 and %=*": in +$1+* Eoticea/le for t!is crop is t!e loss in +$$8, .!en production .as ac!ieved in less t!an !alf t!e average annual long'range as specialists say, all crops /eing compromised* M!eat !as proved to /e t!e /est enduring crop to unfavora/le evolution of climatic elements* 0!e ta/le s!o.s t!at it !as /een less affected /y t!e droug!tP production losses registered in t!e micro area of @aracal /eing =%*=: in +$$&, %%*": in +$$8 and =&*=: in +$$9, follo.ing t!ree years are favora/le for .!eat, as in +$1+ losses to /e significant again, standing at almost %$: of t!e value* Me conclude t!at all t!ese variations from one production year to anot!er actually s!o. vulnera/ility .!ic! e5posed farmers in t!e study area, t!e climatic factor /eing decisive* And .!en .e say t!is, .e mean financial losses t!at farmers !ad to /ear* 0!e follo.ing ta/le presents .!at level stood for a !ectare of crop losses in t!e micro area of @aracal, ta<ing into account t!e losses of production and t!e prices of t!ose years* As seen in t!e years t!at !ave losses in production 6+$$&, +$$8, +$$9, +$1+7 t!ere .ere recorded financial losses t!at varied 4uite muc!* 0!us, for t!e .!eat crop, t!e /iggest losses .ere o/tained in +$1+ 61"++*" Hei7* 0!is .as due on t!e one !and, to large p!ysical loss of t!at production year and, on t!e ot!er !and, !ig! .!eat prices .ere recorded t!at year* Hosses .ere recorded in +$$8, severe droug!t year, .!en !arvests .ere compromised micro area almost in total*
0a/le #( Financial losses to t!e farmers reflected /y t!e Seleaninov inde5 to normal values for .inter .!eat, maiGe and sunflo.er 6lei D !a7
+$$& 1"=$ %8%,= +#8" +$$8 +$$9 Minter .!eat 6<gD!a7 1#9$ 1&+$ Minter .!eat 6leiD!a7 1+&8,+ 11=% MaiGe 6<gD!a7 =9"$ =1"$ MaiGe 6leiD!a7 +$1+ 181$ 1"++," ==+"

'

'

1"= $

Minter .!eat 1#9 1&+ ' $ =9" $ $ MaiGe =1"

'

'

181$

'

'

+#8 "

'

'

'

==+"

$ Sunflo.er ' ' 8&" ##$ 91$ Source( o.n calculations

'

'

'

9""

Hosses .ere over 1$ percent in all crops and for all years, t!e most affected /eing maiGe, .!ic!, for e5ample in t!e last 8 years, t!e average losses to more t!an !alf 6"9*%: in
>

Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13, Issue 3, !13 PRI"# ISS" $%&'((), E&ISS" $)&3()
+"$+," ++=&," Sunflo.er 6<gD!a7 8&" ##$ 91$ Sunflo.er 6leiD!a7 %+9,% 911,9 1$1+," Source( o.n calculations 1$11," +=&$,8 9"" 1%#+,+

For maiGe, losses .ere even !ig!er, reac!ing for e5ample in +$$8 to +"$+*" Hei to ++=&*" Hei in +$$9 and +=&$*8 Hei in +$1+* 3f t!e t!ree crops analyGed losses .ere t!e lo.est for sunflo.er crops 6compared to t!e ot!er t.o crops7, varying /et.een a minimum of %+9*% Hei in +$$%, to a ma5imum of 1%#+*+ Hei in +$1+* */"*+3SI/"S -mpact of climate varia/ility on gro.t! and development of agricultural crops is 4uantified /y t!e potentiality of .eat!er parameters to ensure optimum gro.ing conditions or adverse effects* For Romania, in general, and 3ltenia and @aracal micro region, in special, climate c!ange !as !ad and .ill !ave a significant impact on t!e development of natural conditions* Fere, agriculture and /iodiversity are t!e areaYs most vulnera/le to t!e effects of t!ese c!anges given to t!e dependence of climatic conditions and to t!e negative effects of ecological, economic and social conditions* Actually, a /ig part of 3ltenia area presents an increased ris< to droug!ts and !ave a tendency to aridity and desertification* 3ur researc! .as concentrating to t!e evaluation of implication of ris< involved in agriculture* @alculation of Seleaninov inde5es and t!eir correlation .it! t!e economic and financial results at @aracal micro region level come to confirm t!at t!e agriculture is increasingly volatile to climate c!ange variations* -n addition, t!e yield variations and t!e financial results !ave direct implications on income levels and living standard* ased on t!e results o/tained, .e conclude t!at t!e maiGe crop is e5posed to losses and t!e least e5posed is t!e sunflo.er* M!eat performed relatively /etter t!an corn, as demonstrated /y t!e reduction in t!e period of corn acreage and a slig!t increase in areas planted .it! .inter .!eat* 0!erefore, .e

conclude t!at variations from one production year to anot!er actually s!o. vulnera/ility of e5posed farmers in t!e study area, t!e climatic factor /eing decisive* And .!en .e say t!is .e mean financial losses t!at farmers !ad to /ear* -n t!ese conditions, to counter t!e effects of agro'climatic ris<s involved in production for t!e @aracal micro region .e propose( ' Measures to improve t!e efficiency of .ater resources, especially for maiGeP ' Adaptation measures to climate c!ange( o Farming practices to reduce effects suc! as( a selection of agricultural measures allo.ing .ater preservingP assessment and 4uantification measuresP develop immediate and adaptation strategies in t!e futureP o An efficient crop management and land use( selection of varietiesDgenotypesP crop rotationP tillage systemP o Ris< management and climate c!ange impacts on agricultural productivity t!roug! t!e adoption of strategies including( a diagnosis and prognosis of t!eir occurrenceP monitoring of suc! p!enomenaP environmental protection measures /y specific plant tec!nology systems and .ays of use adapted to local conditionsP t!e support of agricultural tec!nology and alternative agricultural management practices in order to prevent and mitigate t!e possi/le negative effects on t!e vegetation and agricultural yields in areas most vulnera/le to climate ris<s* ' Measures on t!e development of an efficient agricultural insurance* A*?"/7+ED-ME"#S 0!is researc! .or< .as supported and financed /y t!e >3SDRUD1$8D1*"DSD8&999 program* RE.ERE"*ES
112 er/ecel 3* And cola/*, 1#8$, Agrometeorologia 6Agrometeorology7, Editura @eres, ucureVti* 1+2 Llteanu B!*, 1##9, Fitote!nie 6>!ytotec!nics7, 1, EdiUia a doua, Editura @eres, ucureVti* '

Scientific Papers Series Management , Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development Vol. 13, Issue 3, !13 PRI"# ISS" $%&'((), E&ISS" $)&3() 1=2 @ofas E*, 0oma E*, Dumitru S*, +$1+, Researc! on t!e influence of climatic factors on agricultural production plant in -alomita county, @onferinUa ZtiinUificT -nternaUionalT [Eco'0rend\, 0g* Aiu, Fouse >u/lis!er Academica rWncuVi, pg* =$+'=1$ 1%2 @uculeanu, V*, Marica, A*, Simota, @*, 1###, @limate c!ange impacts on agricultural crops in Romania and adaptation options, @limate Researc! 6@R S>E@-AH &, oo< Version7, -nter'Researc! Bermany, 1+(1"='1&$ 1"2 FurduGeu, B*P @onstantin, H*, +$$9, Several Aspects Regarding Meat!er and Meat!er Derivatives, Aurnalul Economic ' 0!e Romanian Economic Aournal, +8( 198'+$= 1&2 FurduGeu, B*, Mateescu, E*, ]evorc!ian, @* s*a*, +$$#, Raport de cercetare @ercetTri Vi e5tensie privind managementul riscurilor agropedoclimatice prin derivate pe factori climatici 6Researc! and E5tension Researc! Report on agropedoclimatic ris< management /y derivatives in climatic factors 7, ASE ucureVti 182 ]evorc!ian, @*, FurduGeu, B*, Bavrilescu, @*, +$1+, UtiliGarea instrumentelor derivate cu opiuni pentru managementul riscurilor meteo Ln fermele agricole din Sud'Estul RomWniei, Ln Economia agroalimentarT i deGvoltarea ruralT Ln RomWnia* -mplicaii ale >A@ asupra securitTii alimentare 60!e use of derivatives for ris< management options forecasts on farms in Sout!eastern Romania, agro' economy and rural development in Romania* -mplications of @A> on food security7, Editura Academiei RomWne, ucureti* 192 Sandu, -*, Mateescu, E*, VTtTmanu V*V*, +$1$, Sc!im/Trile climatice Ln RomWnia Vi efectele asupra agriculturii 6Romania and t!e effects of climate c!ange on agriculture7, Editura S-0E@F, @raiova 1#2 Simota @*, Marica A*, @uculeanu V*, +$$=, -mpactul sc!im/arii climei asupra ecosistemelor agricoleP evaluarea vulnera/ilitatii si a masurilor de adaptare 6-mpact of climate c!ange on agricultural ecosystems, vulnera/ility assessment and adaptation measures7, Ed* ARS D3@EED-, Academia Romana' @omitetul Eational pentru Modificarile Blo/ale ale Mediului, pg =8'## 11$2 0eaci D*, 1#9$, onitatea terenurilor agricole 6farming land evaluation7, Editura @eres, ucureVti, p* +=