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MARATHA MANDIR’S

BABASAHEB GAWDE INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES,

MUMBAI

GLOBAL WARMING

Subject: Environment Management

SUBMITTED TO

PROF. R. BALASHANKAR

SUBMITTED BY

SWARAJ NIKHADE 76

ASHUTOSH PACHADE 78

DEVENDRA PANDIT 81

VIRENDRA PATIL 88

SHEKHAR SHIVAM 107


Introduction

Natural hazards are extreme events and disasters are potential risks to these events.
Hazards are defined as phenomena that pose a threat to people, structure, environmental
resources and economic assets and which may cause a disaster. The term disaster owes its
origin to the French word ‘disastre’ which is the combination of two words ‘des’ meaning
‘bad or evil’ and ‘astre’ meaning a ‘star’. The combined expression is ‘bad or evil star’.
Disaster is defined as “… a serious disruption of the functioning of a society, causing
widespread human, material, or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the
affected society to cope using its own resources.” The United Nations defines disaster as
“…the occurrence of a sudden or major misfortune which disrupts the basic fabric and
normal functioning of a society (or community). It is an event or a series of events which
gives rise to casualties and/or loss of property, infrastructure, essential services or means
of livelihood on a scale that is beyond the normal capacity of the affected communities to
cope with unaided. Disaster is sometimes also used to describe a “catastrophic situation in
which the normal patterns of life (or eco-systems) have been disrupted and extraordinary
emergency interventions are required to save and preserve human lives and / or the
environment”.

Disaster mitigation is a “collective term used to encompass all activities undertaken in


anticipation of the occurrence of a potentially disastrous event including preparedness and
long term risk reduction measures (UNDP, 1994)”. Mitigation involves reducing the actual
or probable effects of extreme disaster on man and environment.

“Today, about three-quarters of all natural disasters are related to weather, climate and
water and their extremes…. Progress in the meteorological and hydrological sciences
shows that the impacts of natural hazards can be reduced through prevention and
preparedness,”
“In order to be prepared and to take action to meet the risk posed by disasters, it is
imperative to be informed of the risks involved, and of possible options to mitigate the
risk.”
“It is WMO's ambition to halve the number of deaths due to natural disasters of
meteorological, hydrological and climatic origin over the next 15 years.” Michel
Jarraud, Secretary-General of WMO, Message on the occasion of World Water Day on
22 March 2004

People face complex combination of vulnerability and hazard. A disaster is a result of the
interaction of both if, there are no hazards but there is vulnerable population, if there is
hazard but no vulnerable population there is any risk. Disasters claim a large proportion of
life and property loss all over the world. Disaster can simply be defined as ‘unfortunate’ or
‘adverse event’.

The Indian subcontinent has a highly diversified range of natural features. The Himalayas,
which are the young fold mountain and where the phenomena of stress release is very
common together with the uncertain monsoon winds make the region highly prone to
natural disasters. The region being the most populous in the world further adds to the
damage caused by the natural disasters.

The United Nations General Assembly adopted resolution 42/169 in December 1987 and
subsequent resolutions which proclaimed the 1990’s as the ‘International Decade for
Natural Disaster Reduction’ (IDNDR, 1989). Resolutions 43/202 (1988) and 44/236
(1989) is illustrated by the statement that purpose of IDNDR is to:
“Introduce through concerted international actions, especially in developing countries, loss
of life, property damage and social economic disruption caused by natural disasters such
as earthquakes, windstorms (Cyclones, hurricanes, tornadoes, typhoons), tsunamis, floods,
landslides, volcanic eruptions, wild fires, grasshopper and locust infections, drought and
desertification and other calamities of natural origin.”

The term environmental hazard has the advantage of including a wide variety of hazard
types ranging from ‘natural’ (geophysical) events, through ‘technological’ (man-made)
events to ‘social’ (human behaviour) events (Fig 1) The extent to which hazards are
voluntary or involuntary is particularly important. The degree of individual human
responsibility for disaster increases greatly from accidental geophysical hazards like
earthquakes, tsunamis etc to the largely self induced social hazards like smoking
mountaineering etc
Global Warming

Global warming is a potential increase in the amounts of greenhouse gases such as Carbon
Dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Models referenced by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) predict that global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4
°C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) between 1990 and 2100. The uncertainty in this range results from two
factors: differing future greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and uncertainties regarding
climate sensitivity. There is great concern that global warming will lead to the destruction
of ecosystems due to sudden temperature changes and weather anomalies such as heavy
rain, drought, and extreme heat, as well as the submersion of low-lying regions due to
rising sea levels.

Natural factors affecting climate change and human induced


activities causing global warming

Natural factors Human activities

Solar Output Deforestation


Volcanic activity Methane
Mountain Building Carbon Dioxide
Continental drift Chlorofluorocarbon
Earth geometry s
Stellar dust Earth’s Methyl bromide
Atmospheric chemistry Climate
Atmospheric albedo Vehicular emissions
Surface albedo

For millions of years, gases in the Earth’s atmosphere have trapped sufficient heat from
solar radiation to sustain life. However, an increase in human activity is now raising levels
of greenhouse gases such as CO2, so that excess heat is trapped in the atmosphere. The
burning of fossil fuels, forest cover change and use of chemical fertilizers etc. are
increasing the amount of green house gases as the atmosphere becomes a better insulator,
retaining more heat which is provided by sun - this phenomenon is called ‘Global
Warming’ (Fig. 6 and Fig. 7). Global warming is occurring faster than predicted because
rapid economic growth has resulted in higher than expected greenhouse emissions since
2000.
The Green house Effect

(1) Energy from the sun drives the


climate and weather on the earth. Of Su
the ultra-violet rays that enter the
atmosphere, some are reflected back
or absorbed by the clouds. Most
(2) Some of the Earth’s
reach earth and warm its surface
heat is passed back into
space. Some gets trapped
in the atmosphere by
carbon dioxide, water
vapour,
Major contributors to Global chlorofluorocarbons,
Warming
-Cutting of trees
-Burning of fossil fuels (3) Human activities like burning
- Chemical fertilizers of fossil fuels by automobiles and
- Vehicular traffic industry are compounding the
- Industries and factories situation by adding greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere

Ice holds large fresh water supplies and is a vital part of the ecosystem. Melting ice and
climate change thus demands urgent attention by decision makers and the public
worldwide. Global warming is also wiping out creatures – it is suspected that every hour 3
species disappear, every day up to 150 species are lost, every year between 18,000 and
55,000 species become extinct. If warming continues, more than a million species
worldwide would be extinct by 2050. Global sea levels could rise by more than 20ft.,
devastating coastal areas. Deaths from global warming will double in just 25 years to 3
lakh people a year. The recent tsunami that claimed more than 270,000 lives, sprouting of
grasses in the Antarctica and snowfall in Dubai are all warning signals of global warming.
Increase in Global Temperatures in the Last Century

Source: http://www.agregatepros.com/parts.html
Global average near-surface atmospheric temperature rose 0.74 ± 0.18 °Celsius (1.3 ± 0.32
°Fahrenheit) in the last century (Fig. 8 and Fig. 9). The prevailing scientific opinion on
climate change is that "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations," which leads to warming of the surface and lower
atmosphere by increasing the greenhouse effect. Greenhouse gases are released by
activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, land clearing, and agriculture.

The term global warming is a specific example of the broader term climate change, which
can also refer to global cooling. In principle, global warming is neutral as to the period or
causes, but in both common and scientific usage the term generally refers to recent
warming and implies a human influence. The UNFCCC uses the term "climate change" for
human-caused change, and "climate variability" for other changes. Some organizations use
the term "anthropogenic climate change" for human-induced changes.

Temperature Anomaly in the Past Decade

Source: http://www.agregatepros.com/parts.html
The Impact of Global Warming
An increase in global temperatures can in turn cause other changes, including a rising sea
level and changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation. These changes may increase
the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, heat
waves, hurricanes, and tornadoes. Other consequences include higher or lower agricultural
yields, glacier retreat, reduced summer streamflows, species extinctions and increases in
the ranges of disease vectors. Warming is expected to affect the number and magnitude of
these events; however, it is difficult to connect particular events to global warming.
Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, even if no further greenhouse gases
were released after this date, warming (and sea level) would be expected to continue to
rise for more than a millennium, since CO2 has a long average atmospheric lifetime.

The impact of global warming will cause sea level rise by half a meter by 2100, and
glacial melt downs. Himalayan glaciers are retreating at a record pace - the Gangotri
glacier is retreating 98 feet every year. Erosion of coral reefs is occurring in Andaman,
Seychelles, Malaysia, Madagascar, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Maldives and Indonesia. Flooding
is also causing havoc in coastal areas, like in Sunderbans area, where 18,500 hectares have
been flooded in past 30 years. 1 m rise could mean extinction of the Royal Bengal Tiger in
the Sunderbans. If the sea level rises by 2 m, half of Bangladesh will be submerged.

History of warming / Temperature record:


Relative to the period 1860–1900, global temperatures on both land and sea have
increased by 0.75 °C (1.4 °F), according to the instrumental temperature record; the urban
heat island is not believed to be significant. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased
about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C/decade against 0.13 °C/decade) (Smith,
2005). Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.12 and 0.22 °C
(0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements.
Over the one or two thousand years before 1850, temperature is believed to have been
relatively stable, with possibly regional fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period or
the Little Ice Age (Fig. 10).
Temperature Movement over the Ages

Source: http://www.agregatepros.com/parts.html

Although 1999 was not a record breaker, it was the fifth warmest year in the recorded
history. The overall warmth of the decade would have been even greater were it not for the
eruption of Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991. Stratospheric aerosols from the
eruption reduced the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface of the northern
hemisphere during 1992-1993, making them the 2 coolest years of the decade (though still
warmer than the long-term average) and, although we don’t have reliable records for the
years prior to 1880, a recent analysis using techniques by using complex computer
programs called general calculation model (GCM) estimates the global distribution of
temperature & precipitation that would result from hypothesized changes in the
atmosphere. It describes that 5 of the years in 1990s were probably the warmest for North
America over the last six centuries. Interestingly, though land and ocean temperature both
increased significantly in the 1990s, they were not perfectly in sync with each other.

Human health threats due to rise in temperature, may be more serious than temperature
data alone would suggest. This is important because experts believe that the most
dangerous health threat occurs not from very high day time temperature for several days
but without intervening cool nights. The results of the study are even more noteworthy
when one takes into account that data from the record warm years of 1997 through 1999
were not included. (Aguado Edward and Burt E. James, 2001)
A study done in the US between 1949-1995 found that the incidence of extreme apparent
temperature has increased more dramatically. To make matters worse, the increase in night
time apparent temperature has been greater than the increase in day time apparent
temperature, and instead of dropping at sunset, it has persisted overnight.

Effects of Global Warming

Some effects on both the natural environment and human life are, at least in part, already
being attributed to global warming. Glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as the Larsen
Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, increased intensity and frequency of
hurricanes and extreme weather events, are being attributed at least in part to global
warming. While changes are expected for overall patterns, intensity, and frequencies, it is
difficult or impossible to attribute specific events (such as Hurricane Katrina) to global
warming.

Some anticipated effects include sea level rise of 110 to 770 mm (0.36 to 2.5 feet) by
2100, repercussions to agriculture, possible slowing of the thermohaline circulation,
reductions in the ozone layer, increased intensity and frequency of hurricanes and extreme
weather events, lowering of ocean pH, the spread of diseases such as malaria and dengue
fever, and mass extinction events.

Increasing extreme weather catastrophes are due to increasing severe weather and an
increase in population densities. The World Meteorological Organization and the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency have linked increasing extreme weather events to global
warming, as have Hoyos et al. (2006), writing that the increasing number of category 4
and 5 hurricanes is directly linked to increasing temperatures.
How Climate Change will affect World Regions
The UN climate report looks at the impact on eight world regions, with the Arctic,
southern Africa, Pacific islands and Asian Coastal regions worst hit:
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Europe (6) Polar (7) Asia (8)
North South & Small Africa areas Australia,
America Central Pacific New
America islands Zealand
(a) More (a) (a) (a) (a) (a) (a) (a) water
heat Reductio Increase droughts, Increased Rising Himalayan shortage
waves n of rain d threat water risk for temperat glacier worsens
(b) More forest due to shortages floods, ures, melting (b) more
forest (b) rising (b) especially glacier (b) Rising threatened
fires Dispersi sea level Fishing in central and ice water species in
(c) Year- on of and tourism and Eastern melt levels Great
round savannah storms threatene Europe affect increasing Barrier
snow (c) Sea (b) d Southern flora and the risk of Reef and
melts in level rise Drinkin (c) Europe fauna flooding other
western threatens g water Crops, (a) More (b) (c) reservation
mountai cities on reservoi feed heat waves Change Decrease s
ns the rs affected (b) Forest in of (c) Coastal
(d) Atlantic reduced fires perma- precipitatio regions are
Coastal coast (c) (c) Water frost n affects more
regions Tourism shortages situation crops and threatened
threatene affected (d) Crops at affects feed by more
d by risk infra- storms and
floods Northern structure floods
Europe (d)
(a) Moderate
Improved global
crops temperatur
(b) es rise
Increased gives New
Hydro- Zealand
Power better
production conditions
for
agriculture

Source: Complied from The Times of India, New Delhi ed., Dated: Wednesday, April
4, 2007

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), giving the most authoritative
study on the on the regional impact of climate change since 2001, also warns that the
poorest nations are likely to suffer the most. The report warns that the temperature rises of
2-3 degrees Celsius predicted by 2050 spell disaster for both humanity and environment.
By 2050, the report warns, more than 200 million people could be forced to leave their
lands by rising sea levels, floods and droughts with many more facing early deaths from
mal nutrition and heat stress. According to UN Environment Programme “We are talking
about a potentially catastrophic set of developments” and “Even a half-metre rise in the
sea level would have catastrophic effects in Bangladesh and some island states”. The
report predicts that Himalayan glaciers will melt away, affecting hundreds of millions of
people. If current warming is maintained, Himalayan glaciers could decay at very rapid
rates, shrinking from the present 500,000 sq km by 2030 according to draft technical
summary (The Times of India, New Delhi ed., Dated: Tuesday, April 2, 2007)

United Nations Convention on Climate Change highlighted needs and duties of


developing and developing countries as follows:
a) Developed countries shall help developing nations deal with requirements of the
convention and the effects of climate change by-
• Providing money and technological assistance to help these nations measures flow
of green house gases.
• Assisting countries that are particularly vulnerable to harmful effects of climate
change to meet the costs of adoption
• Providing environmentally sound technologies within these nations
b) All nations to
• Provide information on the quantities of green house gases they release, and how
much is absorbed by their sinks.
• Publish regular updates on programmes to control emissions, and to adopt to
climate change.
• Promote the sound management and conservation of such green house gas sinks as
plants, forests and oceans.
• Cooperate in planning for the impact of climate change on coastal zones, water
resources and agriculture
• Cooperate in the protection of areas prone to floods or droughts, particularly in
Africa.
• Inform the public about climate change and its effects, and promote and facilitate
public participation in developing responses.
Mitigation of Global Warming and Adaptation to Global Warming
The broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to
increase has led nations, states, corporations and individuals to implement actions to try to
curtail global warming. Some of the strategies that have been proposed for mitigation of
global warming include development of new technologies; carbon offsets; renewable
energy such as wind power, and solar power; nuclear power; electric or plug-in hybrid
electric vehicles; non-fossil fuel cells; energy conservation; carbon taxes; improving
natural carbon dioxide sinks; deliberate production of sulfate aerosols, which produce a
cooling effect on the Earth; population control; carbon capture and storage; and
nanotechnology. Many environmental groups encourage individual action against global
warming, often aimed at the consumer, and there has been business action on climate
change.

Kyoto Protocol

The world's primary international agreement on combating global warming is the Kyoto
Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol is an amendment to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries that ratify this protocol commit to
reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases, or engage in
emissions trading if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases. Developing
countries are exempt from meeting emission standards under Kyoto Protocol. This
includes China and India, the second and third largest emitters of CO 2, behind the United
States.

Global Warming
Predictions in 21st Century
Based on HadCM3 Model

Source:http://w ww.agregatepros.c
om/parts.html

Global climate model


The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21st century is calculated by
the HadCM3 climate model, if a business as usual scenario is assumed for economic
growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure (Fig. 11), the globally averaged
warming corresponds to 3.0 °C (5.4°F).

Scientists have studied global warming with computer models of the climate. These
models predict that the net effect of adding greenhouse gases will be a warmer climate in
the future. However, even when the same assumptions of fossil fuel consumption and CO 2
emission are used, the amount of predicted warming varies between models and there still
remains a considerable range of climate sensitivity.

Climate models have produced a good proxy to observations of global temperature


changes over the last century. While these models do not unambiguously attribute the
warming that occurred from 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects;
however, they suggest that the warming since 1975 is dominated by man-made greenhouse
gas emissions.

Conclusion
A hazard only becomes a disaster when it comes in contact with vulnerable population or
location. Natural disasters cannot be stopped but with better mitigation we can reduce the
loss they incur on life and property and reduce it to bare minimum. Techniques of risk
assessment, vulnerability analysis, structural and non structural measures including
building codes, resistant structures, warning and forecasting etc. can reduce the impact of
disaster.

In regard to global warming the big question is whether it is largely result of human
activities or natural variations. While the answer is not known for certain, each new
warmer year lands further support to the GCH’s predictions of a warmer atmosphere in
response to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases.

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