Escolar Documentos
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Table of Contents
I. II. III. IV. V. VI. Labor Market GDP Housing Energy Health Fiscal Situation
Businesses Have Added 8.1 Million Jobs Over the Last 45 Months
Monthly Change in Private Payroll Employment
Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 Jan-07
I. Labor Market
400 200
Nov-13
0 -200
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
3
The Unemployment Rate Has Fallen SteadilyBut the Long-Term Unemployment Rate Remains Significantly Elevated
2001-07 Average
Jan-95
Jan-00
Jan-05
Jan-10
4
Recent Months of Real Wage Growth Have Been Strongest Since 2009...
Growth in Real Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Workers
12-Month Percent Cha nge 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 2007
I. Labor Market
Nov-2013
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
5
2.9 S
2013:Q3
2003:Q1
2006:Q1
2009:Q1
2012:Q1
6
6 4 2 0 -2 -4
3.1
3.9
1.3
0.3
-2.7
-2.0
-5.4
-6 -8
-8.3
-10
7
2009:Q1
2011:Q1
2013:Q1
9
2009:Q1
2011:Q1
2013:Q1
10
The Trade Deficit Is Narrower than Pre-Crisis Years, Helped by a Falling Deficit in Petroleum ProductsAnd the Current Account Deficit is the Lowest As a Share of the Economy Since 1998
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 00
II. GDP
8
All other goods Petroleum
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12 13*
11
*2013 based on merchandise trade data through October and average current account through Q3. Source: Census Bureau; Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Jan-81
Jan-91
Jan-01
Jan-11
13
Index (3/16/90=100)
7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Jan-07
III. Housing
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage (Left Scale) Dec. 12-13 Refinancing Applications (Right Scale)
8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
14
9 8 1980:Q1
III. Housing
Note: Reflects estimated payments on mortgage and consumer debt. Source: Federal Reserve Board.
1990:Q1
2000:Q1
2010:Q1
15
The U.S. is Now Projected to Produce More Natural Gas and Total Liquid Fuels than Russia and Saudi Arabia
U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia Liquid Fuels and Natural Gas Production, 2008-2013 (est.)
40 30 20 10 0
Saudi Arabia
U.S.
Natural Gas
Liquid Fuels
2008
IV. Energy
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
16
Domestic Oil Production Has Exceeded Imports For First Time Since 1995
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
17
2013*
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
18
*Data for 2012 and 2013 are projections. Source: CEA calculations based on data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Medicare
Medicaid
19
*Data for 2012 and 2013 are projections. Source: CEA calculations based on data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The Budget Deficit Has Fallen Rapidly the Presidents Proposals Would Stabilize Debt as a Percentage of GDP Over The Next 10 Years
Percent of GDP (Fiscal Year)
11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 2000
VI. Fiscal Situation
Actual
2003
2006
2009
2012
The Decline in the Deficit Since FY2009 Represents the Largest Four-Year Improvement Since the Demobilization from WWII
5.7
3.7
3.2
2.7
1996-2000
1992-1996
1983-1987
21
Slowing Cost Growth Has Contributed to Lower Cost Estimates for Medicare and Medicaid
Percent of GDP
4.5 2014
VI. Fiscal Situation
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
22