International Policy Department Berlin, 1st September 2009

Introduction

On August 30 regional elections took place in the German federal states (länder) of Saxony,
Thuringia and Saarland. On the same day, local elections were held in North Rhine-
Westphalia. These elections were considered as a barometer of public opinion concerning the
upcoming elections to the Bundestag on September 27.

These elections are also interesting against the background of the future forming of a national
government: The present grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD is estimated by all
protagonists of the German political scene as at least suboptimal. That’s why the CDU/CSU
is focussing on a conservative government together with the FDP. Coincidentally, the
establishment of DIE LINKE as the fifth force within the German parliamentary system and the
constant loss of votes of the two big parties (CDU/CSU, SPD) for the benefit of the smaller
parties (Greens, FDP, DIE LINKE) is causing a modified situation relating to the historically
grown coalition possibilities of governments in the Federal Republic of Germany. The cases,
where a big party can form a coalition with a smaller party will become less frequent in future.

The forming of governments in the länder are allowing to draw certain conclusions concerning
the future acting of the established parties from the Western part of Germany within the new
five-party system: While the CDU tries to widen its options for being in government through
forming coalitions with the Green party, (existing coalition of CDU and Greens in the land of
Hamburg, exploratory talks towards a CDU, FDP and Green government in Saarland, the so
called “Jamaica-Coalition”), the SPD is not decided yet whether to carry the political change
together with DIE LINKE, which had been claimed by the SPD election campaign, or to be the
junior partner in a grand coalition (Saarland, Thuringia). Just as unclear is the intention of the
SPD to come to decisions on that before or after the elections to the Bundestag on
September 27.

It is essential for DIE LINKE, that the forming of a government together with the SPD is
possible, provided that arrangements in terms of social justice, ecological rebuilding, a just
educational system or more democracy can be achieved. But DIE LINKE makes also clear that
this model is not an option with regard to the federal government, because of the neoliberal
agenda of the national Social Democratic Party and its “YES” to military interventions of the
German army.

DIE LINKE performed well in these elections and Co-chairman Oskar Lafontaine, the winner of
the elections in Saarland, said that all had not been said and done in regard to the elections
in September. General Secretary Dietmar Bartsch took the same line and stated that DIE
LINKE was going with great tailwind into the elections to the Bundestag.

Below, you will find a summary and first evaluation of the elections, developed in the election
night.

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The elections of August 30 2009
Summary and first evaluation
issued by Dr. Benjamin-Immanuel Hoff
and Horst Kahrs

Evaluation of the 2009 regional elections in Saarland, Thuringia and

Saxony

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The CDU had to suffer a bitter election defeat on the 30 of August 2009. At the regional
elections in Saarland, Thuringia and Saxony the Union had to accept partially binary losses.
The party lost her sole reign in Thuringia and Saarland.

Thuringia’s prime minister Althaus and Saarland’s prime minister Müller get punished by the
voters. There are just the possibilities to build “red-red” (SPD – DIE LINKE) or “red-red-green”
(SPD – DIE LINKE - Greens) governments in both federal states.

Because of the little losses of the CDU in Saxony, the next Federal prime minister will be
recruited by the CDU again. A “black-yellow” (CDU-FDP) alliance could exemplify for the
German Bundestag.

In spite of the election losses, the CDU could be able to rule in all three federal states, if the
SPD forms a coalition with them. And in Saxony the CDU has the choice between SPD and
FDP.

It is also possible to experience the “Jamaica-Coalition”, consisting of CDU, FDP and the
Greens, in Saarland.

Altogether the Bundestag project of a “black-yellow” - coalition suffered a setback at the

2009 regional elections. This coalition is just possible in one federal state instead of three.
But the loss of the sole reigns also implies more political options for action to the CDU.

For the SPD it is hard to benefit from the regional election results. They will place the prime
minister of Saarland, if the Greens join in. But the gain in this political option does not imply
a higher mobilisation of voters. In Thuringia the SPD stays far behind the Left and is,
according to the rules, not able to place the federal prime minister. The SPD has to be the
junior partner in a coalition. In Saxony, according to the federation, the SPD is in the same
position like the FDP and both have to bid for the Union’s favour. The election result on
Sunday intensified the strategic dilemma of the SPD instead opening up more possibilities.

The Greens and the FDP were the great winners on this evening. Their results transformed
two more federal parliaments into five-party-parliaments. Both parties became partly much
stronger, especially the FDP, which does not mean that their benefits could clear the losses
of the Union. The FDP won a option to govern in Saxony and the Green won political options
for action in Saarland and Thuringia.

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The Left reached an outstanding result in the Saarland, which is in big parts due to Oskar
Lafontaine. Whether this victory will be connected to a change of policy is in the hands of the
Greens. Also in Thuringia, the party with its prime minister candidate Bodo Ramelow could
increase and almost reached the CDU. Whether this victory in the election can be
transformed into a political victory, the weeks to come will have to show. The result in Saxony
cannot satisfy, especially regarding the distinct losses in Dresden and East Saxony behind the
overall result in the state.
The voter turnout rose in Thuringia and in Saarland. The reason is the reachable possibility of
a policy change. With this prospective, the voters could be mobilized by the opposition
parties, while the one party government of the CDU was more likely to tire and exhaust their
adherents, in any case it is not mobilizing.

The effects for the federal elections depend on the acting of the parties in the days to come.
The FDP and – a bit more moderate – the Christian Democrats used massive warnings
against the “red camp”. The Greens, on the other hand tried to present themselves as the
first modern party in the five party system: themes and contents were important. The SPD will
not have much time to enjoy “the dramatic losses of the CDU” because there were almost no
increases for themselves. How the SPD, pinched between the continuation of the Grand
Coalition as the only realistic option for government on the one side and the refusal of a
cooperation with the Left on the federal level on the other, wants to take an offensive to
mobilize its potential remains unclear. It is not very likely that the SPD will make that clearer
before September 27th (the day of the federal elections).
A small ray of hope for the SPD is the recapture of the mayor’s offices in Cologne, Essen and
Dortmund. Nevertheless, the local elections brought no rebirth of the SPD in the big towns
and districts of the Ruhr region. In fact, the Greens increased their result here. For the Left
the local elections were a more modest beginning of the political cycle till the state elections
in May 2010.

2. The results in Thuringia

The Landtag of Thuringia has changed again from a three-party parliament to a five-party
parliament. CDU lost a third of its MP. DIE LINKE, despite its grown share of the votes, lost
one seat, but is now never the less shortly behind the CDU.

Rate of votes Seats

LTW04 LTW09 LTW04 LTW09
CDU 43,0% 31,2% -11,7% 45 30 -15
SPD 14,5% 18,5% 4,1% 15 18 3
Grüne 4,5% 6,2% 1,6% 0 6 6
FDP 3,6% 7,6% 4,0% 0 7 7
PDS/LINKE 26,1% 27,4% 1,3% 28 27 -1
Others 8,3% 9,0% 0,7% 0 0 0

The result of the votes is a disastrous defeat for the CDU and its Prime Minister Dieter
Althaus. Simultaneously, the voters have confirmed to DIE LINKE its entitlement to govern the
land. DIE LINKE continues to be the second strongest party. The SPD could get additional

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votes, but stays clearly behind DIE LINKE. The Greens and the FDP could manage to re-enter
the Landtag. As it had been the case in the first legislative period of 1009-1994, five parties
are again represented in parliament.

The distribution of the 88 seats in the Landtag would allow several constellations of
government building:

- a coalition between CDU and SPD under CDU leadership and a CDU Prime minister
(48 seats)
- a coalition between LINKE and SPD under DIE LINKE leadership (45 seats)
- a coalition between LINKE, SPD and the Greens under the leadership of DIE LINKE (51
seats), which would reflect the real political cooperation amongst those parties on
content-related topics during the last years.

The decisive role belongs now to the SPD. In case DIE LINKE would come out of the elections
stronger than the SPD, the SPD had announced a cooperation with the CDU, with SPD as the
junior partner. But given the big losses of the CDU and the expectations of the voters to get a
political change, it’s becoming difficult to the SPD to help the CDU again to get the Prime
minister.

3. The results in Saarland

The election result in Saarland has brought the absolute majority of the CDU in the Landtag
to an end. The CDU lost 13 percent. DIE LINKE is the winner of the election evening, with an
increase of votes of more than 18 percent.

Rate of votes Seats

LTW04 LTW09 LTW04 LTW09
CDU 47,5% 34,5% -13,0% 27 19 -8
SPD 30,8% 24,5% -6,3% 18 13 -5
Grüne* 5,6% 5,9% 0,3% 3 3 0
FDP 5,2% 9,2% 4,0% 3 5 2
LINKE 2,3% 21,3% 18,9% 11 11
* Barbara Spaniol (Grüne) changed from the Greens to DIE LINKE during the election period.

A black-yellow centre-left government of CDU and FDP didn’t get a majority in Saarland. The
distribution of seats in the new Landtag allows several government constellations:

- a so-called “Jamaica coalition” of CDU, FDP and Greens (black-yellow-green is the

national flag of Jamaica), under CDU leadership and with the loser of the elections,
Peter Müller, as Prime minister
- a coalition of the two biggest parties under CDU leadership and with Peter Müller as
Prime minister
- a centre-left coalition of SPD, LINKE and Greens under SPD leadership and
replacement of the CDU Prime minister.

Given that CDU and FDP on the one hand, SPD and LINKE on the other hand both dispose of
24 parliamentary seats, a decisive role in government building relates to the smallest party in

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the Landtag, the Greens. In this respect, the Greens have to be counted amoung the winners
of the elections evening.

4. The results in Saxony

The result of the vote in Saxony confirmed the existing parliament of six parties. There were
again losses for the Christian Democrats (CDU), nevertheless still remaining the by far
biggest party in the Landtag. The extreme right National Democratic Party (NPD) reaches the
re-election into a regional parliament for the first time, despite losses of votes. The Left lost
votes, but stays by far the strongest opposition party. The Social Democrats (SPD) keeps its
place slightly above the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which can feel as the winner of the
evening.

Saxony
Rate of votes Seats
LTW 2004 LTW 2009 LTW LTW 2009
2004
CDU 41,1% 40,2% -0,9% 55 58 3
SPD 9,8% 10,4% 0,6% 13 14 1
Grüne 5,1% 6,4% 1,3% 6 9 3
FDP 5,9% 10,0% 4,1% 7 14 7
PDS/LINKE 23,6% 20,6% -3,0% 31 29 -2
NPD 9,2% 5,6% -3,6% 12 8 -4
Others 5,3% 6,8% 1,5% 0 0 0

The increase of the FDP brings the CDU into the position to negotiate with two parties about
a coalition. The allocation of seats makes possible as well to continue the existing coalition
with the SPD as the change to a classical middle-right-coalition with the FDP. Both coalitions
would have 72 out of 132 seats in the Landtag.
Building a government without the CDU is again impossible after this election. Counting the
seats, an all party coalition excluding the NPD would have 66 seats. The election confirmed
the role of the CDU as quasi state party in Saxony, having something like a natural right to
nominee the prime minister. On the other hand, the Left in Saxony appears as a persistent
opposition party that misses strong partners. Opposite to that, SPD, FDP and the Greens can
compete to become the junior partners of the CDU.

5. The local election results in North Rhine-Westphalia

Only 52.3% of the voters – the least ever - went to the ballot for the local elections in North
Rhine-Westphalia. The CDU stayed the strongest party in the districts with 38,6%, the SPD
lost votes once more and fell under 30%. DIE LINKE with 4,4% on average stayed under the 5%
threshold.

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Splitting oft he valid votes
KW 2004 KW 2009
CDU 43,4% 38,6% -4,8%
SPD 31,7% 29,4% -2,3%
Grüne 10,3% 12,0% 1,6%
FDP 6,8% 9,2% 2,4%
(PDS)LINKE 1,4% 4,4% 3,0%
REP 0,6% 0,2% -0,3%
NPD 0,2% 0,3% 0,1%
Groups of voters 4,8% 4,9% 0,1%
Others 0,8% 1,0% 0,2%

With the election result, the falling trend for CDU and SPD is continuing. In the end of the
1960s and during the 1970s, both parties were used to get results around 45% and
altogether more than 90%. In the 1980s and 1990s, both parties reached together 80-85%. At
the local elections in 2004, they got 75%, and in 2009 only 68%.

In 1999, the CDU jumped from 40,3% to 50,3%, whereas the SPD fell from 42,3% to 33,9%.
This result was even undercutted by the SPD in 2004 and now again in 2009. The CDU
couldn’t manage to stabilise its high results and has now reached approximately its level from
1990.

Simultaneously with the loss of influence of both big parties, the voter turnout changed. In
1975, local elections took place together with the regional elections in North Rhine-
Westphalia, in 1994 local elections fell together with the national elections, which explains a
high voter turnout.

Splitting of the votes during the local elections 1975-2009

1975 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Non-voters 14,3% 30,1% 34,2% 34,4% 18,3% 45,0% 45,6% 47,7%
Invalid votes 0,3% 1,1% 1,0% 1,1% 1,2% 0,9% 1,1% 1,0%
CDU 39,2% 31,9% 27,3% 24,2% 32,5% 27,2% 23,1% 19,8%
SPD 38,3% 31,0% 27,5% 27,7% 34,0% 18,4% 16,9% 15,1%
Grüne 5,3% 5,4% 8,2% 4,0% 5,5% 6,2%
FDP 6,0% 4,5% 3,1% 4,2% 3,0% 2,3% 3,6% 4,7%
(PDS)LINKE 0,4% 0,7% 2,2%
REP 1,5% 0,5% 0,2% 0,3% 0,1%
NPD 0,1% 0,2%
Groups of 2,5% 2,5%
voters
Others 1,2% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% 2,3% 1,6% 0,4% 0,5%

Between those years, the voter turnout was between 65 and 70%, whereas since 1999, it has
been 55% or less. At the local elections in 2009, the CDU could bind only every fifth voter, the
SPD even not every sixth voter. This gap in the local political representation couldn’t be filled
by the smaller parties and electoral groups.

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DIE LINKE achieved its best results in the cities of Oberhausen (8.5%), Duisburg (7.7%), Herne
(7.4%) and Bochum (6.9%). Followed by the district of Recklinghausen (6,5%), the cities of
Wuppertal (6.2%), Bielefeld (5.7%) and Essen (5.6%). DIE LINKE also achieved more than 5% in
the cities of Dortmund, Gelsenkirchen, Remscheid, Düsseldorf and the districts of Ennepe-
Ruhr and Wesel.

In Oberhausen, Duisburg, Recklinghausen and Wesel, DIE LINKE could improve its last
Bundestag-result about 1.6%. But DIE LINKE also undercut its results in Gelsenkirchen about
2.4%, in the district of Düren about 2.1% and in several more cities and districts between 1
and 2 percentage points.

Election party in the party headquarters, the Karl-Liebknecht-Haus, 30th August 2009