Regional Workshop on Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Development Planning

14-17 April 2009, Tokyo

COUNTRY REPORT - PAKISTAN

Muhammad Tahir Anwar
Federal Water Management Cell Ministry of Food & Agriculture Islamabad, Pakistan
The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of ADBI, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this presentation and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

SequenceofPresentation
Status An Overview Climate Change Scenario Water Resources of Pakistan Indus Basin Irrigation System Challenges Interventions Way Forward

Status
Anactivememberoftheinternationalcommunityinits effortstoprotectGlobalCommons JoinedUNFCCCatRio 1992 Ratifiedthetreaty 1994 SubmittedInitialNationalCommunicationon ClimateChange 2003 DepositedinstrumentofaccessiontotheKyoto Protocol 2005 CleanDevelopmentMechanism:National OperationalStrategy 2006 NationalYearofEnvironment 2009

AnOverview

LandArea: Population: Coastline:

796,095sq.km 166million 900kmwith Arabiansea 4.8%

Rangelands: 1/3oflandarea Forests: Agrarianeconomy 10AgroEcologicalZones GDPshare21% Employs44%laborforce

Climate
Temperature: 26OCto+52OC

Humid(K,R) Humid(K),SubHumid(R) Humid(K),Semiarid(R) SubHumid(K),Humid(R) SubHumid(K,R) SubHumid(K),Semiarid(R) SubHumid(K),Arid(R) SubHumid(K),Hyperarid(R) Semiarid(K),Humid(R) Semiarid(K,R) Semiarid(K),Arid(R) Semiarid(K),Hyperarid(R) Arid(K),Semiarid(R) Arid(K,R) Arid(K),Hyperarid(R) Hyperarid(K),Semiarid(R) Hyperarid(K),Arid(R) Hyperarid(K,R)

MeanSeasonalRainfall: AprilOct: 50mm >800mm NovMar: <50mm >500mm

ClimateChangeScenario
Variables Temperature Rainfall Carbondioxide Predictionscenario Limits/Period 0.3O C/decade 1.0%/decade 360,550ppm 0.9O C& 1.8O Cin 2020and2050 3%& 6%rainfallin 2020and2050

Climaticdatabaseline 196190

Source:PakistanInitialNationalCommunicationonClimateChange 2003

ClimateChange
And we know that it is happening.

IndusBasinIrrigationSystem(IBIS)
IndusBasin 566,000km2 WatershedArea 944,000km2

MajorStorageReservoirs(Nos): Barrages(Nos): LinkCanals(Nos): MainCanals(Nos) 61,000km: CivilCanalinNWFP(Nos): Distributaries(Nos): Watercourses(Nos) 1,610,000km: GrossCommandArea(Mha):

3 19 12 44 200 4,000 135,000 14.6

AvailabilityofFreshWater

Source:PakistansWaterEconomy:RunningDry,TheWorldBank

WaterAvailabilityVsPopulationGrowth
PERCAPITA AVAILABILITY POPULATION GROWTH

WaterStressed WaterScarce

Source:http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/futureindex.html

StorageCapacity&Sedimentation

Source:PakistansWaterEconomy:RunningDry,TheWorldBank

WaterUsebySector

Source:PakistanWaterSectorStrategy,Vol.5

AreaofMajorCrops
CROPS
Wheat Cotton Rice Fodders Sugarcane Maize Gram OtherCrops

AREA(M.HA)
8.58 3.07 2.58 2.50 1.03 1.02 1.05 3.44

SHARE(%)
36.6 13.1 11.0 10.7 4.4 4.4 4.5 15.5

76%areaisoccupiedbyfivemajorcrops wheat,cotton,rice,foddersandsugarcane
Source:PresentationonCountrysStatusReportatECOWorkshop,MINFAL 2006

CropWaterRequirements
CROPS
Wheat Rice Cotton Sugarcane Fodders OtherCrops TOTAL

REQUIREMENT (MAF)
23.1 17.6 16.4 9.6 9.5 16.8 93.0

SHARE (%)
24.8 18.9 17.6 10.3 10.2 18.2 100.0

83%waterisusedby5cropshaving76%area
Source:PresentationonCountrysStatusReportatECOWorkshop,MINFAL 2006

WaterBudget
CANALDIVERSIONS 103MAF ConveyanceLosses 49MAF

CANALWATERAVAILABLE ATFARMHEAD 54MAF GroundWaterContribution 48MAF NETWATERAVAILABILITY ATFARMHEAD 102MAF

Waterrequirement:93MAF

FieldApplicationLosses 26MAF

RainfallContribution:13MAF

Shortfall: NETWATERAVAILABILITYFOR 4MAF(4.3%)withrainfall contribution CROPCONSUMPTIVEUSE 17MAF(18%)without 76MAF rainfallcontribution

Efficiency
OverallConveyanceEfficiency 52.5%
CanalConveyanceEfficiency 75% WatercourseConveyanceEfficiency 70%

FieldApplicationEfficiency 75% OverallIrrigationEfficiency 40%

AnnualWaterRequirement Projected
(MAF)

Particulars
CanalHeadRequirement MeanSurfaceWaterAvailable Shortage IrrigationEfficiency

2010
135.74 103.81 31.93 45%

2025
155.00 103.81 51.19 50%

Source:ADB,WaterSectorStudy

WaterProductivity

Source:PakistansWaterEconomy:RunningDry,TheWorldBank

WaterUseEfficacy
600 592 500 400 300 200 100 0 (kgofproduce/acreinch) (kgofsugar/acreinch) 253 25 59 Sugarcane Sugarbeet

Source:Ahmad,PARC2005

CanIrrigationMiraclebeSustainedin 21st Century?

Businessasusual (No?????). Stabilizepopulationandincreasewater productivity Shiftthinkingfromraisinglandproductivity to raisingwaterproductivity kgha1 kgm3

Morecropperdrop

Challenges
ImprovingirrigationefficiencyofIBIS Equitbale waterdistribution Goodwatermanagementpractices Precisioninfarmoperations Makingdeliverycompatiblewithcropping pattern Harvestingrainwaterandrunofffromhill torrents

Interventions
PrecisionLandLeveling/Laser LandLeveling
WaterSaving: 50%inwheat 68%inRice

ReduceTillage/Resource ConservationCultivation
WaterSaving:1520% SavinginFuelandOrganicMatter

Contd..
RaisedBedCultivation(Rs.474million)
WaterSaving:3040% Increasedcropproductivity:1040%

WatercourseLiningand Improvement(Rs.66billion)
Reductioninconveyance losses:2030% IncreasedCroppingIntensity

Contd..
HighEfficiencyIrrigation Systems(Rs.18billion)

Drip/Trickle&Sprinkler IrrigationSystems
WaterApplicationEfficiency:6090%

WayForward
Integratedeffortsbydonoragencies avoid duplication Capacitybuilding Sharesuccessfultechnologiesforadaptation Promoteregionalcooperationtomitigate climatechangeeffectsonsustainablebasis

Contd..
Awarenesscampaignforallthestakeholders Harvestrainwaterandhilltorrents Promoteresourceconservation, environmentalfriendlyandenergyefficient technologies Introduce/promotewaterefficient&heat tolerantcultivars Adjustcroppingpatterntoavailableresources

IRecall..
WhenIseewhatwewe'vedone,Ishedatear AndwhenIthink,Istarttofear Forwithoutwater,wherewouldwebe Withoutwater,therewouldbenoyouorme

(KenHoffman sPoemon Water) Hoffmans Water)

TIME & TIDE WAITFORNONE!