Volume-II, Issue-IX NOVEMBER 2013

The process of privatization itself does not ensure a turnaround for the organization and things have, in the past, turned for the worse. According to Asian Development Bank about performance of Pakistans privatized enterprises, one third of them had shown a negative trend after five years of deregulation.

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NOV 2013

EDITORIAL BOARD
Dr Ashfaq hassan Khan Dr Abid Sulehri Shabbir Ali Nizami Shah A Hassan Zubair Malik

Exclusive
The Second Coming of Cinema
Pages 12-13 Pages 22-23

EDITORIAL

ADVISORY BOARD
Haroon Akhtar Khan Hamidullah Jan Afridi Sajid Gondal

The Necessary Evil

US drone strikes targeting Militants and Pak-US relations

EDITOR
Tausif-Ur-Rehman

Deputy Editor
Ahsaas Wasti

Correspondents
Aamir Rizvi Muhammad Bilal Khan Shiraz Nizami

Pages 6-7

Bureau Chief Multan

Muhammad Rizwan Awan

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here are best of the relations, there are worst of the relations and then there is Pakistan and the US. Each day brings the twists of economic policies and developmental correlation between the two countries to a new standstill. There have been times of mutual financial and strategic assistance with images like that of Ayub Khan patting President Johnson on the cheeks. Then there are times like the PMs recent visit to the US and a moderate, between the lines expression of Pakistans detest over drone strikes. The US does not mind at all as President Obama listens to the request and pats it on the cheek with another drone strike in Miranshah on the PMs return to Pakistan. The reaction is immense and again non aggressive since not a long while back, Pakistan, though covertly, itself allowed the strikes to continue. Have the strikes made their mark in the War against terror? Seeing the list of high value targets killed in these strikes, there is no doubt that it has. The recent being the killing of Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Chief Hakimullah Mehsud in a highly controversial drone attack at a highly non-expected time. The increasing number of civilian casualties on the other hand comes back to haunt Pak-US foreign policy and humanitarian programs. Pakistan bore a gigantic $100 billion loss during the last 12 years of US war against terror. Since the war reached Pakistans urban terrain in the form of suicide attacks and terrorist activities, most of this loss is non-military in nature. As per data released by USAID, Pakistan has received a civilian assistance of $3.3 billion since 2009. The aid peanuts are not enough to regenerate all the developmental programs and to boost Pakistans sluggish economy. The newly elected government had better plans in mind when they announced a dialogue process to be initiated between the government and TTP. The dialogues were aimed at bringing the extremist elements to the table and to reach common grounds with non-violence. This would have curbed the continuous foreign investment and infrastructure damage by acts of terror and would have provided the economy with a chance to move forward. The dialogue process was almost chalked out as the PM and the Interior Minister issued statements affirming an ongoing progress. Sources revealed that even TTP had agreed to the terms of not carrying out any major attacks in Pakistan till the dialogue process is complete. The killing of TTP Chief Hakimullah Mehsud in a US drone strike sabotaged the dialogue process in a single strike. With across the board criticism on the US for not playing its part in the peace process, it is still worthy to note that Hakimullah Mehsud had a bounty placed over his head by both Pakistan and the US government. The necessary evil of drones might have destroyed the dialogue process but would it help root out the root cause of a rotting Pakistan economy threatened by terrorism? The world waits fingers crossed.

Nawaz's best foot forward

Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan

Pages 8-9

Pakistan-TTP peace talks uncertain

News in Brief......................14-15 The Nobel Peace Prize.......20-21 The Lost Youth in the Lost Heaven-FATA..............22-23 Rising Temprature Raising Eyebrows...........................24-25 Who is going to Loose............26 US Tightneing Money Laundering Laws....................27 Terrorism Un-plugged.......28-29 A new Turkey insight.........30-31 Azerbaijan Past, a key to it future.............................32-33 NUST organizes Regional Consultation on 2014 UNHDR..............................34-35
D I S C L A I M E R
Utmost care is taken to ensure that articles and other information published are up-to-date and accurate. Furthermore, responsibility for any losses, damages or distress resulting from adherence to any information made available through the contents is not the responsibility of the magazine. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editor, publisher and the management. Comments and suggestions are welcome.
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Muhammad Bilal Khan

Pages 16-17

Obamacare Voodoo Economics

Tammy Swofford

Pages 18-19

An Economic Trial Run

Faiz Paracha

NOV 2013

POLICY
bolster cooperation in trade, investment and energy sectors. The Pakistan-US Working Group on Energy is to meet in Houston and Washington in November to discuss ways to expand cooperation. Under another initiative, the United States would invite Pakistani businessmen and send buyers mission to spur trade prospects. Moreover, World Bank has agreed to finance the Dasu power project in Pakistan.

The United States released $1.6 billion in aid to Pakistan, boosting a flow of assistance that slowed in recent years amid a downturn in relations.

Historic Context
According to an official figure Pakistan has received $25.9 billion from the US during the past decade (2002-2012) in shape of all accounts. The US has so far committed $1.164 billion for FY14 including $398 million for security-related expenditures and $766 million for the Economic Support Fund (ESF). It also includes $10.687 billion on account of reimbursement of Coalition Support Fund (CSF) payments, which cannot be defined as financial assistance in accordance with any standard because these expenditures were incurred by the Pakistan military in its attempts to flush out supporters of Taliban and then reimbursed by Washington. According to a document prepared by the US Congressional Research Service in collaboration with the departments of state, defence, agriculture and USAID, Pakistan received $17.226 billion for security related expenditures while total economic assistance stood at $8.686 billion since 2002. Pakistan received $312 million in the shape of the National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA) under section 1206 to provide global training and equipment. The US also provided $265 million for a Counternarcotics Fund (CN), $2.751 billion in shape of Foreign Military Financing (FMF), $27 million for International Military Education and Training (IMET), $717 million for International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement (INCLF), $115 million for Non-Proliferation, Anti Terrorism, Demining and Related (majority for anti terrorism assistance) and $2.352 billion for Pakistan Counterinsurgency Fund (PCF) and Counterinsurgency Capacity Fund (PCCF). The US provided $5.687 billion out of the $10.687 billion during the Musharraf regime from 2002 to 2007. When the PPP-led government assumed power in 2008, the US reimbursed $1.019 billion in FY08, $685 million in FY09, $1.499 billion in FY10, $1.118 billion in FY11 and $688 million in FY12. The reimbursement for FY13 and FY14 is not yet fully known. On account of total economic assistance worth $8.686 billion during the last one decade, the documents showed that USA provided $249 million for Child Survival and Health, $286 million for Development Assistance (DA), $6.610 billion for Economic Support Funds (ESF), $572 million for Food Aid, $17 million for Human Rights and Democracy Funds (HRDF),

The US provided $5.687 billion out of the $10.687 billion during the Musharraf regime from 2002 to 2007.
$704 million for International Disaster Assistance (IDA) and $248 million for Migration and Refugee Assistance (MRA) from 2002 to 2012. A majority of the total economic assistance funds were received by Pakistan during the tenure of a democratically elected government. During the tenure of the Musharraf regime from 2002 to 2007, Pakistan received $2.033 billion in shape of Economic Support Fund while the country received $347 million in FY08, $1.114 billion in FY09, $1.292 billion in FY10, $919 million in FY11 and $905 million in FY12.

Concluding Remarks
Although every country has its own socioeconomic, geo-politics and geo-strategic vested interests but recent visit of the Prime Minister succeeded to achieve some convergences between the two countries. Nevertheless, controversies have been minimized. Commitments to have enduring Pak-US bilateral relations are the ultimate victor. Energy security, economic integration, regional peace and cooperation in science and technology would further strengthen the Pak-US bilateral relations. Mutual military cooperation has strategic implications which would be used for any threat associated to terrorism, extremism and misadventures. From the Pakistan side hopes were high for greater inflows of the US foreign investments, joint ventures and trade. The US also presented its list of preferences, pledges and persuasions. However, the nitty-gritty of the present interaction and those to follow should not be mistaken. It was a giant show of commercial diplomacy, soft image projection, conflict resolution and above all securing greater mutual economic bounties and markets.

Nawazs best foot forward

P
NOV 2013

Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan

rime Minister Nawaz Sharif recently completed his official visit to Washington where he met US President Barack Obama, VicePresident Joe Biden, Secretary of State John Kerry and other top officials. Economic integration and further strengthening of bilateral trade and commerce ties were the main areas of attraction of the Prime Ministers visit to the USA.

enable Pakistan to overcome its energy deficiencies. It was specified that both sides will hold further discussions in the working groups on Energy and Security, Strategic Stability, and Non-Proliferation. Moreover, President Obama noted that US assistance in the energy sector has added over 1,000 megawatts of power to Pakistans national grid, helping over 16 million Pakistanis. Prime Minister Sharif expressed appreciation for US assistance toward the construction and rehabilitation of Gomal Zam, Satpara, Mangla, and Tarbela dams and the modernization of Guddu, Jamshoro, and Muzaffargarh power plants, and the leaders highlighted the recent Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) loan for private sector wind development in Sindh.

United States and Pakistan. They acknowledged its significance in promoting a decade of intensified cooperation between the two countries, and decided to extend the agreement through 2018. During Prime the visit the US State Department announced the two countries signed a five-year extension of the USPakistan Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement. State Departments Assistant Secretary for Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs (OES), Dr Kerri-Ann Jones and Pakistani Foreign Secretary, Jalil Abbas Jilani signed the agreement to expand relations between the US and Pakistan scientific and technological communities, and were joined by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director, John P. Holdren.

mutual prosperity and economic growth. Under the auspices of the USPakistan agreement, the governments have jointly funded nearly $30 million worth of collaborative research projects through the USPakistan Science and Technology Cooperation Program. The United States released $1.6 billion in aid to Pakistan, boosting a flow of assistance that slowed in recent years amid a downturn in relations. The bulk of the funding is made up of $1.38 billion in military. The rest is $260.5 million in civilian aid. The $260.5 million in civilian assistance is part of the total $959.5 million in FY2012 civilian assistance to be notified, because much of the civilian assistance continued unaffected during the slowdown. During the different meetings it was decided that both countries would be engaged in a range of initiatives in the coming months to help

Cooperation in Science and Technology

Both leaders expressed satisfaction at the implementation of the 2003 Agreement on Science and Technology Cooperation between the

Multiplier Effects
Since its inception in 2003, this agreement has provided a framework to strengthen scientific, technological, and engineering capabilities for both the countries, helping foster

The Energy Sector

The leaders emphasized that both sides should work together on a range of options to 6

Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan is a research scholar, specializes in geo-politics and geo-strategic issues of the GCC, CIS and South East Asia. He has keen interests in cross cultural dialogue and conflict resolution. 7
NOV 2013

WAR ON TERROR
Ali Khan accused the United States of sabotaging the government effort to initiate peace talks. He said a three-member government negotiating team was scheduled to go to Waziristan for "exploratory talks" with the Taliban on November 2. However, the government cancelled the talks due to the strike. In early June, the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan withdrew its dialogue offer to the government after a U.S. drone killed the group's deputy chief Wali-ur-Rehman Mehsud. He said the peace talks would be postponed as it depended on the new TTP leadership. Taliban leaders from Mehsud tribe in South Waziristan have so far held the group's top positions since it was founded in 2007 by Baitullah Mehsud who united all splinter groups in northwestern tribal regions. Hakimullah Mehsud was made the TTP chief in August 2009 after a U.S. drone strike killed Baitullah along with his wife in South Waziristan. Expert on tribal affairs Mehmood Shah said that the TTP could split as deputy chief Khan Syed Mehsud alias Sajna has already been tipped as the new leader but other Taliban leaders could push for election of a non-Mehsud as the new TTP chief. Political analyst Ikram Sehgal said Hakimullah's death was a serious setback for the proposed peace dialogue, though his killing was seen as a huge blow to the TTP. Senior political leaders also angrily reacted to Friday's drone strike when the government and the TPP were set to enter into the longawaited peace talks aimed at putting an end to the bloodshed. Imran Khan, leader of the Pakistan Justice Movement, said the U. S. does not want peace process in Pakistan, adding that his government in northwestern Khyber Pakhtukhwa province will block supplies bound for NATO-led troops in Afghanistan after approval of a resolution in the provincial assembly. Jamiat ulema-e-Islam, a powerful Islamic party, condemned the TTP chief's killing and held the U.S. responsible for the failure of the peace process. Hakimullah's death has also raised serious concern about the Taliban revenge as the group had carried out such attacks in the past. The federal government took extra security measurers shortly after Hakimullah's death. Hakimullah Mehsud was the third senior Taliban leader killed in U.S. drone strikes this year. Wali-ur-Rehman Mehsud, the TTP depuSaid, who is 36, is believed to be involved in the attack on a Naval base in Karachi and is also credited with masterminding a 2012 jailbreak in which the Taliban freed 400 inmates in the northwestern city of Bannu. Sajna has no basic education, conventional or religious, but he is battle-hardened and has experience of fighting in Afghanistan, an official had said earlier. The council was considering four names for the post which included Khan Said, Umar Khalid Khurasani, Mullah Fazlullah and Ghalib Mehsud.

Pakistan wants dialogue process to continue

Pakistans Federal Information Minister Pervez Rasheed has said that the Pakistan strongly condemns US drone attacks, adding that the government still wants the process of peace talks with the Taliban to continue. Presenting governments stance over the US drone assault that killed Hakimullah Mehsud, Rasheed said that the government does not want any hindrance in the dialogue process with the insurgents. The minister further stated that the government would take steps against those elements who want to obstruct the negotiation process. The government is facing troubles soon after start of the dialogue process, he admitted.

ty chief, was killed in U.S. air raid in North Waziristan on May 29, 2013. Maulvi Nazir, chief of his own faction of the Taliban, was killed in South Waziristan on January 2, 2013.

Khan Said Sajna new TTP chief

A meeting of the Pakistani Taliban's Shura (Council) on November 2, 2013 named Khan Said Sajna aka Khalid as the next chief of the banned Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan militant organisation a day after a US drone strike killed its former leader Hakimullah Mehsud in North Waziristan. Most of the members of the council were present in the meeting which was held at an undisclosed location though all members could not attend it. Out of 60 members attending the Shura, 43 members voted in favor of 'Sajna' whereas 17 others voted against him, militant sources told Economic Affairs, who added that Said's election was not confirmed by splinter groups of the militant organisation.

US closely following Pakistans talks with TTP

The United States was closely following reported talks between the Pakistani government and the TTP but would let Islamabad define those negotiations, the State Department said on November 1. We are, of course, following it closely as you would expect but this is an internal matter for Pakistan, the departments spokesperson Jen Psaki told a briefing in Washington. The official reminded the media that this was not a dialogue and discussion that the US would be involved in. We will see how things proceed (as) we have a shared interest with Pakistan to end violence and bring peace and prosperity to the entire region, she said. Ms Psaki said the United States was interested in the talks, their scope and the outcome but would refrain from defining them for Pakistan. She acknowledged that the United States was encouraging talks between the Afghan government and Afghan Taliban as it believed that theres no military solution to the dispute. The writer is Islamabad based journalist and can be reached a bilalpunnu@gmail. com 9
NOV 2013

Pakistan-TTP peace talks uncertain

T
Muhammad Bilal Khan
NOV 2013

he death of Pakistani Taliban chief Hakimullah Mehsud in an American drone strike on November 1 almost derailed the government's plan to hold peace talks with Taliban militants. Mehsud was killed along with five senior leaders of the militant group when American

drones fired missiles on a compound and their vehicles in North Waziristan tribal region. The Taliban leaders came under attack after they held consultations ahead of the proposed peace talks with the government. Latest reports suggest that nearly 20 Taliban figures, who had gathered at the compound, were killed in the attack. Pakistani Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar

the Governments Job

Not
Muhammad Yousaf

ECONOMY

akistans first experience with handing over of state owned enterprises to private sector in the 1980s. Though almost every government in power since Gen Zia has unanimously adhered to this formula but the Sharifshave proved themselves to be really fond of this technique. Every time they come to power there is a renewed call for deregulation of important state owned corporations that have by and now become a burden on the economy. In his first term as countrys premier, he

let away 26 percent shares and complete management of several banks and industrial units to private investors as countrys first major privatization plan in spite of fierce opposition and charges of corruption by the workers. The process followed in his second tenure though more through the privatization commission of Pakistan which was established in 1996. With just months in his third term as premier, the Nawaz Sharif-led government has announced privatization of 31 important state owned enterprises including Pakistan International Airlines, Railways, Steel Mills, Pakistan State Oil and many other national corporations in the first phase of his grand plan to get rid of 65 PSEs as advised by the IMF. Given the economic condition of the country and fast depleting national exchequer the announcement must be taken as a welcome move.The ever growing expenditures incurred by the state run organizations have led

to a global consensus regarding the process. In Pakistan only, the annual loss generated by public sector enterprises is estimated to be aroundRs400-500 billion. But in a troubled country like ours, even a simple and much neededprocess like this is never without complications. With the historic Supreme Court revoking of the Steel Mills sale in 2005, the privatization commission has a tough job at hand. The Sharifled government will have to walk a tight rope for satisfying both an ultra-active judiciary and the watchful media apart from answering tricky questions by the Opposition parties. The judiciary in particular and the Supreme Court in general pose a massive challenge to the massive plan in case the element of transparency is compromised. The court has done so in the past and will not shy away from repeating it if the rules are not effectively followed. The courts judgements in the IPPs and RekoDiq mines case prove that the judges in

The process of privatization itself does not ensure a turnaround for the organization and things have, in the past, turned for the worse. According to a 1998 report by Asian Development Bank about performance of Pakistans privatized enterprises, one third of them had shown a negative trend after five years of deregulation.
NOV 2013

the highest post will not sit quiet in case of any mishandling by the political government or the commission, come what may. Apart from judiciary an ever watchful media will test the nerves of the government in case of any discrepancy in the selling of the PSEs. The vibrant media has effectively and positively influenced the governments in the past by active reporting and timely feedbacks. As visible in the many cases in the past, it would be foolish to expect media to turn a blind eye towards the government acts. Though there is almost unanimity across the countrys political divide and not a single party is expected to vigorously oppose the idea, there are still ripe opportunities for them to put the ruling coalition to wire. With a strong Imran Khan led opposition the PML-N has little room for error. Also PPP, the former rulers of country have criticised the governments announcement citing hikes in both unemployment and inflation as the only definite outcome of the plan.Meanwhile other parties like MQM and ANP may join hands as assets like Railways, Steel Mills and National Airlines comes under the radar. This political pressure coupled with the fierce opposition by the employees unions within the organizations will mount the pressure and may also attract public sympathies. Workers of these organizations will surely be on the streets for their survivals. The process of privatization itself does not ensure a turnaround for the organization and things have, in the past, turned for the worse. According to a 1998 report by Asian Development Bank about performance of Pakistans privatized enterprises, one third of them had shown a negative trend after five years of deregulation. Similarly with some events in the past like the sale of corporations such as Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited and the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) the general perception is not a particularly rosy one, with widespread concerns about extensive

labour lay-offs and continued injection of public-sector resources into the privatised entities. The case of the later is a special one. Not only the corporation is still being mishandled, it has refused to overcome its annual losses and has been constantly draining the national exchequer. However, a deep analysis will only find out that the problem was not with the plan but with what happened after its deregulation. Apart from other stake holders, the general public also has some reservations about the mechanism as it is almost certain that job cuts and lay-offs will follow the process. Unlike the state, the private owners/managers find it impossible to keep large and mostly overstaffed work departments. There is a strong need that a mechanism is devised with the corporation of government and the future buyers to ensure rights of the workers. With so much to take care of, the Nawaz led-government is left with only option to illustrate its full commitment to transparency in the process, ensuring no traces of favouritism

and nepotism. Any monopolies aiming to build their hegemony must be condemned to avoid benefits from moving into fixed hands. On the other hand there is dire need of speeding up the process as by now, the commission has only finalized the list of the enterprises it intends to sale while details of its privatization agenda are nowhere to be seen. Also, as called by the Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, the Commission must come up with a reduced time frame for completion of the process from the previous period of 18 months to ensure speedy business. The sooner it happens, the better. Any unwanted delays in the plan will only add to the woes of the government and will only strengthen to the voices raised against the much needed plan.

The Writer is an Islamabad based Freelance Journalist and he tweets @ usaf_malik.

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d n o c f e S go e n i h T om a m C ine C

O
NOV 2013

ne day an actress, a filmmaker, a director and a distributor gathered to talk shop over tea. Even though a regional film had won at the NY City International film festival, and another cleaned up the local 12

box-office a few years ago, the obituary for the Pakistani cinema was delivered a while ago. It was to remain uncontested for a long time. Film buffs were left wondering why not a single award winning film (Seedlings) or documentary (Saving Face) had been screened in the gleaming new cinemas; or where that little advertised indie horror flick disappeared to, moments after its debut. And do local movies even stand a chance against the distributors bottom line, or space unfairly reserved for the Indian blockbuster for that matter. Mandviwalla opened the gateway to neighbouring cinema and fielded objections of an uneven playing field with a shrug - good Pakistani movies need not

Afrah Jamal fear any Indian invasion in his view. A few months pass. The distributor and filmmaker are together once again at KLF (Karachi Literature Festival) 2013. Seedlings is still not in cinemas, which is strange and the people who can make it happen chalk it up to a lack of communication. That they have been thrown together twice in a span of 6 months and could not work out a distribution plan looks odd. As with all good horror stories, something had survived in the wreckage and those ready

to write off the industry will be off cheering, and not just because of all the multiplexes designed with the requisite 3D bells & whistles mushrooming across a war torn land. They are hopeful because of Main Hoon Shahid Afridi (MHSA), Chambaili, and Zinda Bhaag that reclaimed lost territory and Waar that recently made a killing at the box office. What we see now is termed as a resurrection - not a revival according to the same cynical distributor, previously seen arguing with the Senate where he is asked why he cannot make just one good film. Sir we are not making films at all, he would point out. This was way back when Bol and Khuda Ke Liye by Shoaib Mansoor had helped reignite the passion. But Bol, Mandviwalla had insisted was an exception and not the rule; else there would be others in its wake. The flash-forward to September 2013 is interesting where funny-man Fakhr-e-Alam (rapper / host) is on the censor board, a Pakistani film has been sent in for Oscar consideration, and yet another has garnered international recognition. And Seedlings has broken the jinx (and communication barrier) and plays to a sold out house albeit under a different name. Back in 2012 however, Zeba Bakhtiar, Meher Jaffri, Asim Raza and Nadeem Mandviwalla are still mulling over the mangled remains of the Pakistani film industry. They know where the bodies are buried so to speak and can provide some context. There was Zeba, dwelling upon the pre-production challenges while shooting / editing songs where they would be missing a production designer, screenplay / scriptwriter, or art directors (only commercial ones). Sometimes cultural constraints stand in the way of progress and Meher admitted that there was no makeup credit in her movie and that she had a horrendous time trying to find one. Zeba knows a qualified makeup artist from Hollywood whose husband refuses to let her work. Bad makeup destroys the most beautiful piece, in her opinion. Our girls and boys, she decided, are better looking till they come in front of camera, the fault lies with Image consultants who to be missing from the picture - literally. Asim Razas impressive credentials are generally met by ...so what do you do otherwise? To him filmmaking is a profession to be taken seriously and not a hobby to be dabbled in. And Mandviwalla the eternal realist doubting that an ordinary mortal can ever hope to conjure up the backing of a Bol. He asserts that Pakistan cannot start at the top, and the new guard is not trying to. There are, however making history with the first sports movie, first political statement and now the first war against terror flick setting the production bar higher than its ever been. Not bad for a supposedly moribund industry.

The vibrant new face of Pakistani is ensuring that golden oldies stay relevant as fresh faces arrive and exciting opportunities are born. Asim, whose teleplay Behadd recently aired on HUM TV had commented on the obsession with the directors seat. He also admitted that the remaining crew seldom get due credit in this business. If there had been production designers seated here today, they would have helped onlookers see their prospects. He has a point. The panel of experts eye enthusiasts who enter the business sans a business plan or a long term strategy, in a place where the sole incentive is money or recognition, with a ... whats in it for me? thought bubble hovering atop their heads and concede that such mindsets inevitably end in disappointment. While a great line-up lies ready to roll out hoping to mobilize cinema goers for a long over-due reunion, people will stay as long as the show stays on script. Waar for all its slick production values and wonderfully restrained acting that reinstated the box office crown to its rightful owner but left the screenplay unattended. Critics might find plenty to crucify but with a budget that cannot compete with Michael Bay, (who operates with the support of the mighty DOD (department of Defence) behind him), the truly spectacular displays of firepower and awe inspiring shots of rising helos gets Waar a standing ovation. While not exactly cerebral, the movies are exploring the countryside without enlisting theatricality or a troupe of dancing queens. Those who complained about the absence of role models would approve of the new line up of heroes that for now come in pure white but one day may embrace dual shades. When talking of commercial, parallel and art cinema Asim had suggested that it was time to take a new direction..., substantial cinema he called it ....something that gives one reason to believe and hope. Whether one puts songs or not, thats up to you but make it intelligent enough to capture the interest. This then in his opinion is the first step in making a commercially viable cinema. But when you make something for yourself, he added, then do not be surprised it doesnt go far. A classic underdog story unfolds and sage insiders who know what sent the first industry to an early grave regard the second coming with trepidation. The makeover however has yielded a cinema carved from dramatic cultural markers that need not fear its nemesis as it resumes its march under the Made in Pakistan banner. The writer is a freelance journalist who blogs at http://afrahjamal.blogspot. com/. She can be reached at afrahjh@ hotmail.com and on twitter http:// twitter.com/afrahjh

As with all good horror stories, something had survived in the wreckage and those ready to write off the industry will be off cheering, and not just because of all the multiplexes designed with the requisite 3D bells & whistles mushrooming across a war torn land. They are hopeful because of Main Hoon Shahid Afridi (MHSA), Chambaili, and Zinda Bhaag that reclaimed lost territory and Waar that recently made a killing

at the box office.

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News in Brief
Key firms announce results Corporate results: MCB posts growth despite shrinking spreads
MCB: MCB Bank announced results for the first nine months of calendar year 2013, with profit after taxation rising to Rs17.6 billion, from Rs16.8 billion for the corresponding period in the previous year, with an interim cash dividend of Rs3.5 per share. Earnings per share for the period clocked in at Rs16.98, up 4% from Rs16.96 for the corresponding period last year. The increase in profits comes despite a 9% drop in Net Interest Income, coming down to Rs28.57 billion compared to Rs31.29 billion in the corresponding period for the previous year. The drop in NII is a result of reduced banking spreads in the last quarter, which averaged at 6.26% for the period, down from 7.14% for the corresponding period last year, according to Topline Securities. Despite the drop in interest income however, the company was able to boost its revenue through an increase in non-interest income of 23%, coming in at Rs8.8 billion compared to Rs7.2 billion in the previous year; and a reversal of Rs1.8 billion in provisions against non-performing loans significantly increased income. Nishat Mills: The company reported 1QFY14 unconsolidated profits at Rs1.57bn and earning per share (eps) at Rs4.47 for the first quarter 2014 (1QFY14), up 48pc in the same quarter last year (YoY). The earnings were however down 9.4pc from Rs1.7bn (EPS Rs4.94) in previous quarter (QoQ). On QoQ basis, revenues of the company showed slight improvement of 0.4pc to Rs13.6bn while gross margins improved by 50bps to 18.4pc. However, 68pc QoQ higher administration cost to Rs265m, 16pc QoQ lower other income to Rs672m and 63pc QoQ higher tax expenses to Rs181m overshadowed the gross profit growth of 3.2pc. On year on year basis, earnings improved by 48pc primarily due to improved textile operations and higher other income. During the period, sales rose by 4.8pc YoY. The results were in line with analysts expectations. Engro Corporation: The Company declared net profit at Rs. 5,919m for the nine months ended Sept 30 (9M2013), compared to a net loss of Rs. 433m during the same period last year. The company stated in a note that the return to profitability was mainly attributable to the fertilizer business. The third quarter added Rs2,478 million to the bottom line as both fertilizer plants ran through most of the quarter, Engro Polymers revenues and profits grew substantially and other subsidiaries also had an improved performance except for the fall in revenues at Engro Foods. The company reported earning per share (eps) at Rs11.58 for the 9M2013 against loss per share at Re0.87. After witnessing adverse operating environment in 9M2012, turnaround in its flag ship urea business in 9M2013 contributed to the holding companys profitability. Profit of Rs6.7 per share came from Engro Fertilizers. This more than made up for the decline in profitability coming in from Engro Foods. Engro Corporations overall revenues grew by 30% to Rs108bn. Engro Polymer: Engro Polymer and Chemicals Limited announced profit after tax at Rs552m and earning per share at Rs0.83m on consolidated basis during 9MCY13, up by over six times the PAT at
NOV 2013

selling and distribution cost made up for the decline in gross margins. Decrease of 30pc in financial charges led to profit before tax growth of 2pc. Effective tax rate in 1QFY14 stood at 31pc against 5pc in the same period last year. This was primarily due to Rs441m deferred taxation that resulted in bottom-line decline of 26pc.

the brokers by the exchange since its establishment in 1948.

US confirms criminal probe of forex manipulation

The US Justice Department is investigating the manipulation of foreign exchange rates, a top federal prosecutor said in the first public acknowledgement of such a probe in the United States. Criminal and antitrust authorities have an "active, ongoing investigation" into the possible manipulation, Mythili Raman, the acting head of the department's criminal division, said in a statement to Reuters. The confirmation comes on the same day Dutch bank Rabobank agreed to pay more than $1 billion to resolve allegations that it manipulated Libor and other benchmark rates. Also, other European banks that face related probes disclosed they sent aside major sums to cover legal costs. In echoes of the global probe into interest rate rigging, authorities are also examining suspected price manipulation in the $5.3 trillion-aday currency market. Regulators in Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and Hong Kong said earlier this month they were also investigating the conduct in currency markets.

Rs83m (EPS: Rs0.13) posted during 9MCY12. Earnings however declined by 22pc QoQ to Rs127m and eps at Rs0.19 during 3QCY13. The numbers fell short of most analysts expectations.

Engro Foods: The Company reported 9M2013 profits of Rs1.24bn (EPS Rs1.62). Earnings turned out to be 23pc lower than 9M2012 earnings of Rs1.6bn (EPS Rs2.11). During the period, though margins remained stable at 24.6pc (down 20bps YoY), revenues declined by 5pc YoY to Rs28bn. Further, 6pc increase in distribution costs to Rs3.8bn and 22pc hike in administration costs to Rs748m dampened the bottom-line. However, on the positive side, 13pc decline in financial costs to Rs586m and 38pc decline in tax expenses to Rs502m provided support to the falling profits. The company reported 9 months 2013 profits of Rs1.24bn (EPS Rs1.62). Earnings turned out to be 23pc lower than 9M2012 earnings of Rs1.6bn (EPS Rs2.11). Lucky Cement: Pakistans largest cement company announced 1QFY14 EPS at Rs7.87 as against Rs6.23 the previous year, representing growth of 26pc. The companys topline grew by 5pc to Rs9.3bn as against Rs8.9bn in 1QFY13 mainly due to 18pcYoY increase in cement prices. As a result, gross margins expanded to 44.6pc in 1QFY14. Other income was realised at Rs221m during the quarter as against Rs87m during same period previous year, which shored up the company bottomline. Pakistan Petroleum Limited: PPL announced its 1QFY14 profit of Rs12.5bn (EPS Rs6.33), up 11pc against Rs11.3bn (EPS Rs5.72) in corresponding period last year. During 1QFY14, PPLs topline increased by 14pc to Rs27.8bn as against Rs24.5bn in 1QFY13 as it benefited from higher oil production; depreciation of rupee against the dollar and stable international oil prices YoY. Lafarge Pakistan: The company declared results for the ninemonths 2013 (9MCY13) posting a heavy slump of 93pc in QoQ profit after tax to Rs38 million, translating into earnings per share (eps) at Rs0.03 in 3QCY13. The 9MCY13 earnings stood at Rs903m (EPS: Rs0.69) up by 18pc YoY against Rs786m (EPS Rs0.58) recorded in 9MCY12. Topline recorded growth of 12 per cent YoY at Rs7.8bn in 9MCY13 against Rs7bn in same time last year. The quarterly results disappointed investors who were hoping for a healthy bottom line. PTCL: The Company posted consolidated earnings per share (EPS) of Rs2.21 as against a loss per share of Rs0.28 in the corresponding period last year. The previous years loss was primarily driven by one-off VSS costs were on a recurring basis, 9M2013 EPS clocked in a growth of 18pc YoY to Rs100.5 billion, from Rs84.9bn in the same time last year. In 3Q2013, the company clocked up an EPS of Rs0.67 versus a loss per share of Rs1.62 (recurring EPS: Rs0.54). The key driver of earnings was the growth of 20pc YoY in revenues largely due to higher rates on international incoming calls. DG Khan Cement: The major cement company announced 1QFY14 EPS of Rs2.44, down 26 per cent over 1QFY13. The results stood below market expectations.Though the revenue remained stagnant, 5pc increase in the cost side (resulting from rise in power tariff) dented the gross margins of the company by 360bps.However, 44pc decrease in

Pakistan Oilfields: The Company posted 1QFY14 EPS of Rs15.25, up 41pc from Rs10.85 in the same period last year. The hike in earnings comes from an increase in companys topline and higher other income. During the period under review, companys top line increased by 33pc to Rs8.86bn compared with Rs6.65bn last year on account of higher oil and gas production, up 32pc and 6pc, respectively. Moreover, 212pc increase in companys other income further enhanced the bottom-line primarily driven by strong final dividends from its associate companies (APL and NRL). Indus Motor: The automobile company announced 1QFY14 EPS of Rs11.19 as against Rs8.79 in the same quarter last year, up 27.3pc. Improved earnings were primarily on account of higher sales volumes. During 1QFY14, the company sold locally assembled 8,419 units against 8,299 units in 1QFY13. Revenues increased to Rs14,315m in 1QFY14 compared to Rs13,475m in the same period last year assisted by the increase in prices by almost 2pc in Sept 2013. Askari Bank: Askari Bank posted a loss after tax of Rs3.9 billion for the nine-month period ending September 30, according to a notice sent to the Karachi Stock Exchange on October 21.The bank made a profit of Rs1.4 billion in the corresponding nine-month period in 2012. The financial result of the bank shows the much-anticipated loss incurred in the nine months is mainly because of the extraordinarily high provisions against loans and advances recorded in the second quarter of 2013. In the latest quarter, however, these provisions came down to Rs809 million, down a massive 87% compared to the preceding quarter when they hovered around Rs6.3 billion. Therefore, while the bank posted a loss for the nine-month period, its profit for the third quarter alone was Rs157 million.

FoDP has become dormant

The Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FoDP) Forum has become dormant. However, Pakistan is following the pledges made by donors at Tokyo meeting in 2009 and budgeted Rs 1.119 billion inflows in current fiscal year. Secretary Finance Dr Waqar Masood told media that the FoDP as well as Pakistan Development Forum and Aid to Pakistan Consortium had become ineffective long ago. But the pledges made at Tokyo Forum were being followed by Economic Affairs Division (EAD), he added. The government has budgeted Rs 1.119 billion external resources through Tokyo pledges for the current fiscal year, which were made in 2009 within the FoDP Forum, a brainchild of former President Asif Ali Zardari. An amount of Rs 952 million was budgeted in 2008-09 fiscal year from Tokyo pledges. In the subsequent fiscal year, 2009-10, Rs 46.328 billion was budgeted under Tokyo pledges, which were revised downward to Rs 29.6 billion. In budget 2010-11, Rs 26.69 billion was projected which was also later revised downward to Rs 3.599 billion. Rs 3.661 billion was budgeted in 2011-12 fiscal year which was revised downward to Rs 979 million. The government projected Rs 1.023 billion in budget 2012-13 under Tokyo pledges which was marginally increased to Rs 1.067 billion. The government has budgeted Rs 1.119 billion for the current fiscal year under Tokyo pledges.

KSE declares dividend

The Annual General Meeting of the Karachi Stock Exchange on October 23 approved the first ever dividend for the members (stock brokers). The board had recommended dividend at Rs0.5 million for each of the 200-broker fraternity at the KSE. It requires appropriation of Rs100 million out of the years earnings. Although several members were critical of some of the issues, no one was said to have objected to the receipt of first ever dividend paid to

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OPINION
They buy their wants and beg their needs. The poor can afford colorized tattoos, salon manicures and the latest cell phone. There is little thought for working within the confines of a disciplined budget. My hairdresser comes to mind. She spent three thousand dollars for her small daughters birthday party. But in the next breath she told me she had taken her daughter to an area childrens hospital to treat a fever. I cant afford insurance. Obamacare will shrink the middle class as more chickens are slaughtered and pins stuck into the backs of working class Americans. We are dependent on our jobs to sustain our families. Corporations are lining up like two lines of falling dominoes. One corporate line glumly announces they will decrease their full-time work force by morphing into part-time labor pools that do not fall under the mandate. The second corporate line gleefully announces it is cheaper to pay a fine than to provide coverage for their workforce. My socioeconomic bracket is hurtling downward. My ancestors blazed trails through forests, cleared the land and shouldered wooden plows. American women harvested the fields, lugged water in wooden buckets and birthed their progeny by the light of lanterns. Smudgefaced children worked alongsidetheir parents. Americans worked, sweated and toiled for the Constitutional promise of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. There is no Constitutional guarantee for healthcare. Obamacare slaughters my chicken for the man who did not work for it. The POTUS is manipulating a voodoo doll. I feel the pinprick in my back. The writer is a freelance journalist and author of the novel Arsenal. She can be reached at tammyswof@msn.com

OBAMACARE Voodoo Economics

Tammy Swofford

Obamacare will shrink the middle class as more chickens are slaughtered and pins stuck into the backs of working class Americans. We are dependent on our jobs to sustain our families. Corporations are lining up like two lines of falling dominoes.

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very month I submit a payment to my private insurance carrier. It covers monthlyhealthcare costs. This payment is an economic discipline deployed across a lifetime. My family consumes most meals at home. We choose non-designer clothing and prudently consider our household purchases. Our economic discipline allows us to live in a mid-century home on a tree-lined street with a pond and park at the end of the block. Life is carefully planned around our finances. 16

President Obama assures us that The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is good for Americans. Many Americans loathe this federal mandate. We remain firmly opposed to what the Democrats have forced upon us. I am one of those Americans. What I write today is an opinion piece which is an echo chamber. Listen to the conversation. This is the topic of interest around the tables of ordinary Americans. Pull up a chair, please join us and accept the gift of our hospitality. But most of all, experience our palpable fear.

For middle-class taxpayers,Obamacare is based on voodoo economics. This voodoo sticks a pin right into the backs of working-class citizens. We suffer from excessive taxation with misrepresentation. We are weary of a burgeoning and federally applauded entitlement class. The slow hemorrhage of our lifeblood into the hands of men who did not toil for the bread on our tables continues. Our homemade bread isapuff pastry for bad policy. Hence, our yearning for a spot of tea. Voodoo is actively practiced in Haiti. I

mention this because my grandfather served as a Christian dental missionary in that nation. He was aware of the many rituals playing out around him. The roots of vodoo extend from the soil of West Africa. The Ewe immediately comes to mind as a group which hasmoorings in voodoo magic. Essentially, voodoo involves manipulation and/or sacrifice of the one for the benefit and/or detriment of another life.Obamacare is a policy slaughterhouse against middleclass Americans. It was Herbert Hoover who promised Americans A chicken in every pot and a car in every garage. These were bold times. Campaign slogans attested to the growing prosperity of the American people. Obamacare slaughters the chicken and gives it to someone else. My son and I went to see the film Elysium. It is a propaganda film in favor of universal healthcare. Whilst trying to knock some sense into my childs head regarding the double story he stated, Mom, healing should not cost anything. While noting the ethical tone of our conversation it seemed important that he understand that Obamacare presents us with a greater ethical dilemma. All flawed policies produce greater economic distress. Plunderingthe middle class to give to the poor is as mythical as Robin Hood. At least Robin Hood only plundered the rich. My son finally understood my concern when I told him that while healing should not bear a cost, modern healthcare is not cheap. Every activity bears a cost. I am a registered nurse. I can work for free. But we will look at an empty pantry. Starvation is also unethical. The point was further driven home when I pointed out the man peddling his bicycle. If my son believes that all men should own a car, he should give his Jeep to the man propelling himself along on two wheels. Is it a compassionate thought? Yes. Is it economically feasible? Nope. My son needs

his vehicle for the commute to work. Policy with the appearance of ethical concern but lacking economic feasibility is voodoo. America is a land of promise based on a Constitution with a succinct bill of rights. But the spirit of the law is clear. Each man has a right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. But each man is accountable for his life. He is accountable, in at least some small measure, to do his part to live the American dream. He is a steward not only of his own life but the life of his future generations. Poverty can be seasonal in America. But poverty is never meant to be generational. Entitlement programs which continue in generational manner strip men of their motivation. Obamacare deconstructs the spirit and the intent of Constitutional law. It is a passive form of slavery against the middle class. America has a class of generationally poor who choose dependency on the federal tit for almost everything but the air they breathe.

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ECONOMY
crisis. In this context, it would be important to examine the history of IMF programs with Pakistan as well as the implications of its anticipated bailout package for growth, employment and poverty. The current economic woes are mainly due to the economic mismanagement and poor governance over the last five years since the previous government failed to implement tax reforms. It resorted to borrowing both from internal and external resources in order to run its day-to-day business. The government borrowed a record Rs8.6 trillion between 2008 and 2013 from domestic sources including the State Bank of Pakistan, National Savings Schemes and commercial banks. State Bank documents reveal that the government also borrowed Rs843 billion from eight countries and international financial institutions and also took IMF loans of Rs754 billion. These loans have pushed Pakistans debt and liabilities from Rs6.6 trillion in 2008 to an unsustainable level at Rs15.2 trillion, equal to 68 per cent of the GDP. Pakistan has undertaken 13 programs with IMF since 1988. Most of the programs were suspended and failed to revive economic growth resulting into recession, increased indebtedness, unemployment, and higher poverty levels. During the most recent IMF Stand By Arrangement (SBA) in 2008, economic growth declined to 1.7 per cent in 2008-09 from an average of seven per cent per annum between 2003 and 2008 and remained around three per cent in 2009-10. The area where the IMF has indicated showing leniency is reviewing the requirements of purchasing dollars from the market. The flaw in the original framework was that the IMF had hoped that the rupee depreciation would make the countrys exports more competitive an assessment that underestimated global economic conditions. The SBPs ill-preparedness for the July negotiations was also the reason behind setting the overambitious targets. The relaxation in the condition of building reserves may give a comfort to the SBP but would not soothe the market, which is closely monitoring the fast depleting reserves, according to an independent economist who wished anonymity. However, according to finance ministry officials, the situation is expected to turn around in March next year. From March, the economic managers hope to receive big payments from the Asian Development Bank and World Bank, floating a $650 million Euro bond and receiving some bilateral assistance. The writer is Islamabad based senior economic journalist. Follow on Twitter: @fezi22 Email: fparacha@gmail.com

in line with the IMF advice. Analysts say that gas prices increase would be a tough challenge for the government as under new constitutional amendments provinces are empowered to set the gas prices and they would certainly resist a hike. As Pakistan passed through the first quarter of the current fiscal year, there was a growing realization on both sides that the quantitative targets of net foreign exchange reserves and ceiling on net foreign currency swaps assigned to the SBP were stringent. Pakistan has sought an increase in disbursements, as it would receive only $2.2 billion from the IMF this year as against repayments of the previous loan to the tune of over $3 billion. This according to sources shows a gap of about a billion dollar. However, the Fund was not immediately ready to give this relaxation and asked Islamabad to first successfully complete first two reviews of the program. The IMF realized that the balance of payments projections were over-ambitious, if not unrealistic. The current account deficit during the first quarter of the current fiscal year remained at $1.23 billion slightly less than what the IMF had projected for the whole financial year. The SBP managed to meet most of the targets for the first quarter but it unnerved the markets when it started purchasing dollars from the sport market, which put the rupee under pressure, resulting in over 7% devaluation in just three months. However, the SBP failed to meet the projection of having $5.6 billion reserves by end of September. Despite being in the IMF program, the gross foreign exchange reserves depleted to $4.8 billion by end of September, which further melted down to $4.086 billion by October 14 less than even one month import bill cover. Pakistan abandoned a previous $11.3 billion IMF loan program in 2011 after refusing to carry out strict financial reforms, and still owes about $4 billion to the fund. Debt repayments to IMF have depleted reserves, and Pakistan has to repay $1 billion of IMF loan in the current fiscal year 201213, $3.4 billion in 2013-14 and $1.3 billion in 2014-15. The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan are fast depreciating. The new government faces a dilemma of reviving growth or requesting IMF for financial support in order to avert balance of payment

IMF concerned at depleting forex

An Economic Trial Run

Faiz Paracha

IMFs latest bail out to Pakistan

Pakistan abandoned a previous $11.3 billion IMF loan program in 2011 after refusing to carry out strict financial reforms, and still owes about $4 billion to the fund.

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awaz Sharif swept a landslide victory in May 2013 General Elections of Pakistan. The victory was mostly based on the promises of retribution from a sluggish economy. The growth of Pakistans economy has averaged 3 per cent over the last five years. All the voters needed were promises of jobs and stability. On the other hand Power cuts and minimal social services trigger frequent violent protests. In September the IMF saved Pakistan from a possible default by agreeing to loan it $6.7 billion over three years, but its condition of quarterly reviews means the cash is not guaranteed. The IMF paid the $540 million first installment 18

of the three-year deal in September, but future payments are dependent on the completion of tough economic reforms measured at quarterly reviews. Pakistan, battling a homegrown Taliban insurgency, is blighted by a dysfunctional energy sector, with severe power shortages limiting GDP growth. The key aim of the IMF package was to Reduce Pakistan's fiscal deficit which neared nine per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) last year to a more sustainable level. The Washington-based lender envisages the deficit falling to 5.8 per cent of GDP this financial year, and 3.5 per cent by the end of the program. However, the government has missed the

target for foreign exchange reserves by $300 million, which have fallen alarmingly this year, with just $4.2 billion dollars held. Analysts warned of tough times ahead as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government tries to increase Pakistan's meager tax receipts. The government allowed some tax concessions which are contrary to the IMF conditions. Broadening the tax base is politically difficult, even for a government elected with a healthy majority just five months ago. Doing away with subsidies on electricity that fuel a huge debt problem within the sector is also challenging. A recent planned price rise was held up by the interventions from the courts. Government has to increase gas tariff in next quarter,

he International Monetary Fund has reportedly shown concerns over the depleting foreign exchange reserves and balance of payments situation of Pakistan, which is worsening despite Islamabads joining new IMF programme. The IMF is focusing on the countrys reserves and balance of payments situation, but nothing is worrisome, said a senior officer of the Finance Ministry, while talking to Economic Affairs. He further said that Pakistan and IMF also held talks on the power sector of the country, adding talks between Pakistan and IMF were going well. However, sources said the IMF team showed concern over the balance of payments position of Pakistan, which was worsening as compared to what had been projected by the IMF for the first quarter (JulySeptember) of the current fiscal year 2013-2014. This is one of the targets missed by Islamabad for getting the second tranche. Pakistan and IMF had agreed that gross foreign currency reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) should increase to $5.64 billion by the end of September, which stood at $4.824 billion, showing a gap of $816 million. The IMF team said Pakistans reserves were still under pressure despite its joining the new IMF programme worth $6.64 billion in September 2013. Meanwhile, Pakistan would have to repay $700 million in November that would put an additional pressure on the reserves before receiving the second tranche in December. Pakistan has admitted before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the government is struggling to control the circular debt that once again surged to over Rs 100 billion after clearing it a couple of months ago. Pakistans economic team on Friday briefed the IMF on the power sector of the country. The Funds mission is currently visiting Islamabad for the economic assessment for releasing the second tranche worth around $550 million under Extended Fund Facility (EFF). According to sources, the government told the Fund that circular debt had once again accumulated and surged to over Rs 100 billion. Pakistan told the Funds mission that it had cleared circular debt worth Rs 480 billion just a couple of months ago, but it had once again starting accumulating for several reasons. Similarly, the government is releasing subsidy to the power sector despite increasing its tariff recently. The government told the Fund that it had released over Rs 80 billion to the power sector in the first four months (July-October) of the current financial year 2013-2014, adding the subsidy would not go beyond the targeted level. It is worth mentioning here that Pakistan has already received first tranche worth $ 550 million under Extended Fund Facility in early September and is desirous of getting the second one worth $ 550 mil-

lion in December. 19
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COMMENT

The Nobel
Yasmeen Aftab Ali

In Pakistan, there is a feeling of let-down by some for MalalaYusufzai not having won the coveted award after the hype created by some sections of media on her leading the race. The brave 16 year old shot in the head by the Taliban spiritedly said, They only shot a body but they cannot shoot my dreams, revealing she wanted to become Pakistans Prime Minister as she missed out on the Nobel Peace Prize.

ne year prior to his death, Nobel finalised his will in 1895. The relevant portion of the will, stating the criteria for what has later become known as the Nobel Peace Prize is:"och en del t den somharverkatmesteller best frfolkensfrbrdrandeochafskaffandeellerminskningafstendearmeersamtb ildandeochspridandeaffredskongresser."(Swedi sh) "and one part to the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses." (English translation) According to the Nobelprize.Org, "92 Nobel Peace Prizes have been awarded since 1901. It was not awarded on 19 occasions: in 19141918, 1923, 1924, 1928, 1932, 1939- 1943, 1948, 1955-1956, 1966-1967 and 1972. Why were the Peace Prizes not awarded in those years? In the statutes of the Nobel Foundation it says: "If none of the works under consideration is found to be of the importance indicated in the first paragraph, the prize money shall be reserved until the following year. If, even then, the prize cannot be awarded, the amount shall be added to the Foundation's restricted funds." During World War I and II, fewer Nobel Prizes were awarded."The Vietnamese politician Le DucTho, awarded the 1973 Nobel Peace Prize jointly with US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, is the only person who has declined the Nobel Peace Prize. They were both awarded the Prize for negotiating the Vietnam

peace accord. Le Doc Tho said that he was not in a position to accept the Nobel Prize, citing the situation in Vietnam as his reason. (Nobelprize. org) Norwegian lawyer and activist Fredrik Heffermehl released a book Nobelsvilje (Nobel's Will). He critically assesses the prize's history and the political committee and process which now award the Nobel Peace Prize. According to Heffermehl, prior to World War II about 85% of recipients were awarded in accordance with the will, but since the end of the war only 45% of the recipients fit the criteria. Recipients Al Gore and the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change do not suit the requirements, according to the author. Neither do Muhammad Yunus and his Grameen Bank, nor WangariMaathai. "Disarmament and anti-militarism was what Nobel wanted to promote," says Heffermehl to Aftenposten. Talking of at least one notable Peace Prize recipient; President Barack Obama received the Nobel Peace Prize after being

in office for 12 days as President in 2009. The Norwegian Nobel Committee said Obama had been awarded the prize for his

calls to reduce the worlds stockpiles of nuclear weapons and work towards restarting the stalled Middle East peace process. The committee praised Obama for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples. It was said, Very rarely has a person to the same extent as Obama captured the worlds attention and given its people hope for a better future. (Ross Chainey: Reuters October 9, 2009) He further stated; despite his ambi-

tious international agenda, Obama is yet to make a significant breakthrough in the Middle East or effectively deal with the threat of Irans nuclear programme and his country is currently fighting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. There were 259 candidates for the Nobel Peace Prize for 2013 and 50 of them were organizations. The winner for 2013 was the chemical weapons watchdog OPCW. Set up in 1997 to implement the Chemical Weapons Convention, it employs around 500 people and is an autonomous organization with a working relationship with the United Nations. According to a BBC report (Published October 11, 2013) the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) was adopted by the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva in September 1992. Under its terms the OPCW stringently verifies whether member nations are complying with the CWC.Part of the OPCW's mission is to prevent the re-emergence of chemical weapons in a country which has signed up.The OPCW says Albania, India and a third country - widely believed to be South Korea - have completed the destruction of their declared chemical weapons. In Libya and Iraq, as well as Syria, Russia and the US, the destruction is ongoing, states the report. If one views the part of Alfred Nobels will, awarding OPCW with the prestigious Peace Prize makes more sense than many awarded

earlier, although even this award by many is being viewed as being one indirectly awarded to Assad and Putin. Inspectors were allowed in Syria only after the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and John Kerry the US secretary of state, came to an agreement aimed to circumvent American military intervention.The prize, without question highlights the Syrian crisis, says Aryn Bakerthe Middle East Bureau Chief for TIME. While announcing the award, the Norwegian Nobel committee criticized US and Russia both are committed to destroy their arsenals of chemical weapons under the terms of the CWC, but missed a 2012 deadline to accomplish the objective.According to the Committee, disarmament figures prominently in Alfred Nobel's will. "The Norwegian Nobel Committee has through numerous prizes underlined the need to do away with nuclear weapons. By means of the present award to the OPCW, the Committee is seeking to contribute to the elimination of chemical weapons," the citation said. The Committee however made it clear that the nomination of OPCW was made before April 1 and "came into the picture before the impasse in Syria". (KounteyaSinha, October 11, 2013 in Times of India) In Pakistan, there is a feeling of let-down by some for MalalaYusufzai not having won the coveted award after the hype created by some sections of media on her leading the race. The brave 16 year old shot in the head by the Taliban spiritedly said, They only shot a body but they cannot shoot my dreams, revealing she wanted to become Pakistans Prime Minister as she missed out on the Nobel Peace Prize. However, giving credit where credit is due for bravery in her case, the spirit for a Nobel Peace Prize is as outlined in Alfred Nobels will is demanding of different achievements. A friend wrote, While not taking the credit away from Malala for having the courage to speak up,there's a long way for Malala to go, in order to achieve the status of anyone like Abdul SattarEidhi for one or Mother Teresa! Some feel her cause has been manipulated, Her intelligence is not the issue; it's the manipulation. People like Edhi, Dr. AdeebRizvi (of SIUT) directly touched and changed the lives of hundreds of thousands or millions,writes another. I cannot but be reminded here of a very tongue-in-cheek quote by the Canadian-born experimental psychologist, cognitive scientist, linguist, and popular science author Steven Pinker , Some people believe that the nuclear bomb should be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, since it scared the major powers away from war by equating it with doomsday. The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book, A Comparative Analysis of Media and Media Laws in Pakistan. She can be reached atyasmeenali62@gmail.com. 21
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20

The Lost Youth

Lost Heaven-FATA
in the

ATA (Federally Administrated Tribal Areas) has been underlined as the most dangerous region of the world, or even some intellectuals (whose very intellect is immensely doubtful to me) call it the `Red Zone` of the world. Now a natural query that always scratches my head off, and which might freak one a little out a bit too, `How about the people living in the red zone?`, `How about the families spending their time in there?`, `How about the very youth belonging to these areas`? These are some mind scratchers and random mongers, always itchingthe indifferent, unheard and unclear. But for the moment being, I`ll pick the latest out of the lot, i.e. the very youth and the problems they face in there, education in particular, would be today`s agenda. The overall situation when discussed might get politicized which arent my cup of tea, INDEED! Youth is the ultimate asset and future of any country. Pakistan is no exception.Today, let`s do some serious audit and self accountability, ask yourself, do these people have any access to any social rights? Oh, I guess I am takena little more far flung by my emotions for the day being. Lets get our heads down to the very basic human right as per the `United Nations Charter` or any charter in the world, i.e. EDUCATION. I have penned the word education in bold. Oh! It gives a shouting appeal in the writing norms. Am I really shouting? Do I? Really? Okay if you get it this way, so just be it! Yes, I am shouting. I feel like shouting. The matter is worth it. The very matter is so Goddamn worth it. O`all you big shots out there, o` all you mighty swordsand o` all you old big time Greek emperors out there, arent you listening to the un-counting, random and grieved voices.Let me just buy some of your precious time, discuss and draft a fact sheet about these 22

Muhammad Bilal very young springs, keeping education as a niche and magnum opus. Let`s get neutral for a moment, if you may please. They say the charity begins at home. First off, I would like to share something that happened to me back in the time when I wanted to pursue my higher education and to enroll in Master`s program in Australia. I wrote an email to a professor in Malaysia to seek some help out and requested to extend his help and give me some tips which could help me fetch some scholarships. When I received the email back via another respected professor, I was stunned for a moment. God knows that I was literally shocked. The very honorable professor very generouslyhad asked me to include in my personal statement that we dont have any electricity in Pakistan, especially in FATA it`s just part of the history. This was the first ever brain teaser and a food for thought for me to get my head down on the very basic necessity of human life in the contemporary arena which was, `Yes, we dont have any electricity in our country, oh yes, I didnt even think about it how deprived as a nation we are` Are we that laggards and poor? So poor of us and our fortunes. God knows well I didnt register this reality prior to that, partially because of the reality constructs we have. Might be! To worsen the situation off, I thought to me, I dont belong to FATA, how about the people living in there? How miserable the students would have been in those areas at any course?

Oh God! Help us all. The matter of education is of utter importance. Students from FATA and Pakhtun region dont even have basic necessities to compete with the rest of Pakistan and likewise, the world. They just have to go by the prevailing miserable situations of the country, particularities applied to their respective areas with othermanifold hazards. They have to pave their ways to create opportunities for themselves all by virtue of their struggle only. They dont have any socio-economic stability. Terrorism has struck them like a plague. The widespread poverty and unemployment has done the rest to snatch the basic right of education. They dont have the infrastructure, building and teachers. Sky is the only roof when they attend their schools. No check and balance on the teachers who remain absent for years. Drones are killing innocents and families and confiscating these very humans the right of being called a human even. Every single house has one Malala at least, and counting. Having said all of this, these outlined factbits are the outcomes. They are not the problems, at-least to me. The chief and primary thing is the `Intention` of the government which is so rare, outdated and has remained only a question mark, just the wayalways it has been. The very intention that government always blesses the rest of Pakistan with but strictly speaking, NOT FATA (I am saying it by sources, and not by means of any prejudice or bias). For example, Danish school is the project of one of the provinces in Pakistan, and that province already has the best education system not even in Pakistan but accredited and acknowledged worldwide. My question to you is, does FATA need these kind of projects more or else? To me, every government is as respectable, to the threshold, as advertised by the constitution of Pakistan, but my point is about priorities. My intention is just to get their eyeballs rolling towards the

emergency situation in FATA. The government seems to be in some delta sleep and long-lasting denial to address these basic issues. How unfair and inhuman it is! Sigh. Adding on to the said, federal government announces different national and international scholarships for FATA students. For example, USAID Students Exchange Program and others. I just want to take the opportunity to make an impression out here. Allow me! For crying out loud, is your primary and secondary education more important or your higher education? Agree to disagree but to me, it`s always primary. I have got my reasons to debate with people having otherwise opinion and I duly respect those. Thats pretty debatable. `We do get some opportunities at higher level, mostly for

Students from FATA and Pakhtun region dont even have basic necessities to compete with the rest of Pakistan and likewise, the world. They just have to go by the prevailing miserable situations of the country, particularities applied to their respective areas with other manifold hazards. They have to pave their ways to create opportunities for themselves all by virtue of their struggle only.

Ph.D and MS level but those are mostly grabbed by the selected-few who come through by thin and thick all their life and are the products of the process, who are self made. We dont get something at primary or secondary level`, told a FATA student to the correspondent. `Out of the whole FATA, We dont even include in the one percent who get a chance to pursue higher education, our mates from the primary schools never make it after middle even because of infinite manyother contributing factors, government intention and their lack of interest in our region is one of those`, he added. Now, a reality check, Its very clear from his comments that if we ever get to magnify on the bits he tabled, we would come to the conclusion that you get admitted in higher education when you see through your primary, middle, high and secondary schools. What if you dont have these? Is there any mechanism to have the eligibility and get admitted for the higher degrees? Of course NOT! In the first place, government needs to announce `Education Emergency` and come up with `Education Reforms` for FATA, mainstreaming the primary and high education. For example, government of KP has started the school enrollment drive which is tremendously successful and would have its long lasting effects on the region, strategically speaking. On national level, we need to generalize those too. It will have strategic and long-lasting benefits and effectson this region. Just one example, the socio-economic conditions would ultimately be improved when you raise the educational standards. All stakeholders would reap the benefits

and the state itself would be the topmost benefactor of the detailed. The situation of FATA is really getting twisted around. Government of Pakistan still has time to rescue all those young springs and the future leaders of Pakistan. Better late than never! If some foreign elements have made them what they have to face today, shouldnt be generalized on the larger part of it, the very tribal brave youth who loves Pakistan just as any other Pakistani or even more and has equal rights as any other Pakistani would have. My concern is it`s youth. Let other platforms should handle the political situations. There image is tarnished, the face is muddy and hugger-mugger and their future is blurred. Where do you expect them to go in future? What do you expect them to do for living? How are they going to feed their kids? Every single thing that is not incorporated in the law, automatically becomes the OUTLAW?`Don`t we need to incorporate them as the proper citizens of Pakistan`, is the cry of the day. These are the very basic questions that you need to ask yourself in the first place. Adding on to the advantages, I ask you a very simple question, `What happens when you replace a pen in someone`s hand with a grenade`?

Muhammad Bilal is a brand manager, lecturer and a trainer and career counselor. He holds an MBA degree in Marketing and International Business from NUST Business School, Islamabad. He can be reached at mbilal518@ gmail.com 23
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Rising raising eyebrows

Inayat Karim latitudes hardly receive any snowfall. Rakaposhi, a spectacular peak in the Karakoram mountain range and the twelfth highest in Pakistan, has not been completely covered in snow since 2008, he added. According to Karim, over the last five years, the winter snowfall in the valley has melted in just a few weeks in March. It used to remain until at least the end of April. The changes experienced by farmers in the Hunza valley are different from those happening elsewhere in Gilgit-Baltistan. In other parts of the province, the winter season both begins and ends later now than it used to, delaying the snow melt needed for irrigation and stunting the growth of crops. But even in the Hunza valley, the changes in the onset of the seasons are a problem for vegetable and fruit farmers like Shehla Hayat. Every year in October, the shift from summer to winter used to be gradual. But for the last four years each October, hotter summer days (have) become cooler abruptly, the 35year-old farmer said, while harvesting fodder outside her house in Barashal village. The sudden plunges in temperature, together with unexpected rainfall, have badly affected local crops of apples, apricots, pears and potatoes when they were nearly ripe, causing losses for farmers, Hayat said. Climate and agricultural experts warn, that the long-term consequences of the rising temperatures and glacial melt could be dire. Inayat Karim, a mountain farming conservationist at the Baltit Rural Support Organisation in Hunza valley, said the Ultar glacier, which looms over Karimabad to a height of 7,400 metres (24,300 feet), has been shrinking since 1999, and a previously snow-covered peak is now bare. Shahana Khan of the Aga Khan Rural Support Programme says the valley now receives rain as well as snow in the winter months. This points to a scary scenario for sustainable flows of the Hunza River, Khan said, pointing out that declining snowfall will

AGRICULTURE
eventually reduce levels in the Hunza River, which accounts for 25-30 percent of the water that flows into the Indus River - in turn vital to much of the nations agricultural economy. There are short-term problems for the Hunza River too. Farmers say it has become increasingly turbulent in recent years due to increased glacial melt in the summer months, which sometimes causes it to breach its banks. The director general of the Pakistan Meteorological Department, Arif Mahmood, is concerned by the retreating snowline in the high mountains. In the past, mountains in the valleys like Gilgit, Hunza, Skardu and Shigar in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) used to receive huge snow in their lower altitude areas, between 2,000 and 3,000 metres. But this is no more the case, he said. There has been a surge in heat wave incidences in UIB areas, Mahmood continued. The temperature now goes up beyond 40 degrees Celsius in summer as compared to (an earlier) maximum of 28 degree Celsius some 10 years ago. There has also been an unusual shift in monsoon patterns, which are becoming heavier and moving to higher altitudes, he added. Mahmood warned of increasing flash floods and landslides in the UIB region if temperature increases continue. The senior weather official called for urgent action to make public infrastructure more climate-resilient, such as strengthening river banks and bridges, and to introduce new crop varieties. Otherwise, local communities will be increasingly threatened by torrential rains, floods and wildfires. Saleem Shaikh is climate change and development journalist

Saleem Shaikh

I
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Fida Karim Khan, a farmer in Karimabad, a village in the picturesque Hunza valley of Gilgit-Baltistan province. Farmers in Hunza say maize never used to grow taller than a meter during its five-month season from June to October. Now a longer growing period and warmer days are helping the stalks reach up to 2 meters. The maize yield has increased by an estimated 20-25 percent, while the harvests of other crops are also bigger. Farmers in this remote area also complain that a lack of government guidance has left them

n the mountains of northern Pakistan, farmers say rising temperatures are giving them bumper harvests. The climate and agricultural experts worry about the consequences of increasing tempratures for the glaciers that are vital for the countrys irrigation. Many years back, the weather used to remain cold and cloudy most of the year. But now we have (more) warm months that are helping our staple, cash and fruit crops to grow faster and longer, and post higher yields, said Sultan 24

uncertain about their planting schedules. If they do that the earlier onset of summer could prove an advantage but they are not sure if the changes in weather patterns are permanent. The Hunza valley perches on the north side of the Hunza River in the Upper Indus Basin, some 675 km from Islamabad. The valley lies at an elevation of around 2,500 meters (8,200 feet) and is surrounded by much higher mountain peaks and glaciers. Ali Madad, a 76-year-old farmer in Barashal village, says that because of warmer temperatures, glaciers are melting more consistently, which makes his livelihood easier. Now the streams, which are a major source of irrigation for mountain agriculture, flow even in winter, he said. Whereas snow used to begin falling in the valley around mid-October and continue for six months, it now begins in late December and ends a couple of months later, he added. Temperatures that used to fall as low as minus 16 degrees Celsius over a decade back, now rarely drop below minus 2 degrees. Summer, previously a three-month season, has become correspondingly longer. In Karimabad, Sultan Khan observed that winter snowfall is now less than 5 inches, in sharp contrast with the 13 inches or more observred a decade ago. Local agriculture expert Fida Karim said only the mountain peaks now get covered with snow in winter, while the middle and lower

Shahna Khan

Shehla Hayat 25
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India and Pakistan

Who is going to loose?

Muhammad Hamza

kirmishes between India and Pakistan have been escalated to international borders from the Line of Control (LoC). Rising tension between the two neighbors is a major threat to peace in South Asia. Cease fire agreement in 2003 had calmed the disputed border territory and gave way to Track-I dialogue between these countries. Over the years governments on both sides had tried to open trade corridors for each other, building confidence of the investors and worked on the Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) especially on visa issues. The dream of regional integration in South Asia is highly dependent on political and economic relations between India and Pakistan. Only trade and investment could bring prosperity in the entire region. Everyday disputes between two regional powers could deprive the over one fifth of the world's population from their right of development. Notwithstanding, trading relations between these countries have significantly

improved over the years. India is the biggest trading partner of Pakistan in the South Asian region, it is, therefore, evident that increase in volume of trade will benefit Pakistan. According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics, data, Pakistans total exports to India form July, 2012 to November, 2012 was Rs12,360.59million which is 1.31 percent of the total exports of the country. Imports in the same period from India amounts to Rs56,016.56million which is 3.23 percent of the total Imports. Moreover, India has awarded Pakistan with the status of Most Favored Nation (MFN) in 1996. Pakistan was supposed to grant MFN status to India last year but the bureaucratic procedures and pressures from various quarters lingered on the process. For many of us MFN would certainly means like granting India the more favored importing country, for clarity: This only implies that Pakistan will give the same treatment to Imports from India as it does to imports from any other WTO member states with which Pakistan doesnt have Free Trade Agreement (FTA) or Preferential Agreement (PTA). (Source: Ministry of Commerce, Pakistan). According to a recent study conducted by Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), informal trade between India and Pakistan is around US $4.2 billion, which is way above the formal trade. A study by Dr. Hafiz Pasha for Ministry of Commerce, Pakistan shows

that if Pakistan grants MFN status to India and mutual relaxation in NTBs, then the volume of formal trade can rise from US $2.7 billion to US $7.1 billion. Same study also took into account macro-economic impacts of trade liberalization with India; here is brief summary of those: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Pakistan could be 1.5 % higher, net increase in employment in the medium term is about 169,000, consumer welfare gain estimated to be Rs 70 billion and likely improvement in the global trade balance for Pakistan. Other important point that is worth mentioning here is the rising interest of entrepreneurs from both sides of the border for the investment opportunities. The recent trade liberalization efforts paved the way for consolidated foreign direct investment (FDI) policy and many other areas of economic corporation. Pakistan really needs to think out of box, where this conflict will lead us to. Hostile environment between both nations have some serious repercussions for the people living on both sides of LoC and border. All the efforts made so far for Track-I and Track-II dialogue are put aside when a single bullet is fired on LoC.There is very important role that comes in here which rests with civil society, media and business community on both sides of the border. Media can act as a catalyst for exaggerating this conflict or they can exert pressure on both the governments to normalize relationships in favor of the citizens of these countries. Business community on both sides of the border have huge stake in normalizing relationships with India, so sitting quietly wont help them now, same is the case with all the big chambers of the countries.
The writer is a researcher at Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) he can be reached at hamzaabbas87@gmail.com

US tightening money laundering laws

in the US and that its international affiliates are not shell companies. The House bill on shell companies would require the true ownership of a firm be identified when it is incorporated. The White House said earlier this year that it would push for such legislation as part of its G8 pledge. In August, the Senate introduced a similar measure that requires companies to disclose their ultimate or real owners when the firm is established. It also mandates that those companies keep the ownership information up to date. In addition to holding bank executives personally responsible, the House anti-money laundering bill backed by representatives Maxine Waters and Carolyn Maloney gives authorities more power to ban individuals from the industry if they violate anti-money laundering laws.It also raises the cap on the maximum prison term for individuals convicted of evading an anti-money laundering programme from five years to 20 years. The legislation requires the justice department to explain to Congress decisions that lead to monetary settlements instead of pursuing prison terms. The bill would also enhance the authority of the Treasurys Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, giving it civil litigation authority instead of having to rely on the justice department to pursue legal prosecution. Corporate governance standards would also be strengthened by requiring senior bank management to certify receipt of compliance reports that identify deficiencies. Regulators would have to issue rules prohibiting pay structures that jeopardize compliance, and banks must include clawback compensation provisions for legal violations. Last year, HSBC Holdings paid a record $1.9bn to US authorities to settle accusations that it failed to monitor billions in wire transfers and purchases of US currency involving the Sinaloa drug cartel in Mexico and the Norte del Valle cartel in Colombia. HSBC was also accused of violating US sanctions against Iran, Cuba, Libya, Myanmar and Sudan. HSBC has apologized over the allegations and said it has significantly improved its standards. Standard Chartered, ING Bank NV and other banks have also had to pay millions to settle allegations of money laundering or violating sanctions. In the wake of the recent bank money laundering scandals, where even record-breaking fines were nothing more than the cost of doing business, I believe its time to go after the individuals responsible for these crimes, said Ms Waters, who added that bank executives can no longer hide behind collective decision-making. FT

fforts to fight money laundering and empty shell companies would be strengthened by two bills introduced in the US Congress on October 23, by giving federal regulators enhanced powers to hold bank executives personally responsible for misdeeds. The move in the US House of Representatives comes after banks had to pay at least $5bn in fines and settlements to resolve allegations of laundering money for drug cartels, Iranian clients and the Cuban government. However, no bank executives have been indicted in those cases. Tackling shadowy shell companies was also on the agenda of the G8 meeting of the worlds largest economies in June. British Prime Minister David Cameron in particular pushed for the true beneficial ownership of companies to be revealed through registries, which would crack down on companies trying to evade taxes. In the US, senators pointed to Apples tax practices as a reason why loopholes needed to be eliminated. In May, the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations issued a report on Apple, saying the company avoided paying taxes on $44bn in income by using by using a complex web of offshore entities. Apple denied those claims, arguing that it is probably the largest corporate taxpayer

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TERRORISM UN-PLUGGED
Televised acts of Terror and Psychological Trauma
Television. The question arises if it is the right time to evaluate the psychological impact of media that sensitize the public or have we as a nation become breaking news junkies. The resilience shown by Pakistanis under such circumstances is surprisingly optimistic. Even in the wake of unprecedented catastrophic attacks, the Pakistani society has displayed a quick recovery overall. In the days immediately after the terrorist attacks, stress reactions and anxiety are very common. The media has often left Pakistani public to live sensitized with the post-terror trauma. When interviewed Pakistani public revealed to be remarkably resilient in dealing with the impact of terrorism. Interestingly that has also been the finding in regions which experience terrorist attacks on a frequent and widespread basis. While populations tend to cope fairly well with ongoing terrorist threats, media coverage often adds a destabilizing factor to the mix. Media attention fosters a widespread false belief that terrorist attacks are both more common and

PERSPECTIVE BUDGET 2013-14

Dr Fawad Kaisar

he post-9/11 world faces psychological impact of unchecked Terrorism. Across the world, terrorist attacks kill maim thousands each year. This results in causing massive economic and mortal damage. Images of the aftermath of bombings and other atrocities beam from the media outlets each day. It is natural to assume that the fear of terrorism has a crippling psychological effect on the society. In Pakistan little had been done until Chief Justice of Pakistan enquired an explanation from PEMRA following the five hours live coverage of Blue Area Islamabad Standoff on national

more dangerous. Psychiatrists have also found that intense media coverage itself can have damaging impact on some adults and children. They suffer serious psychological problems as a result of long exposure to media coverage of terrorist attacks. That includes trouble sleeping, nightmares, anxiety or depression. These people had not been at the scene when the attack occurred nor were they directly connected to the victims. All they had witnessed was a great deal of media coverage of terrorism. Researchers found that in some groups of schoolchildren, media

exposure alone seemed to be a primary cause of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) in the aftermath of terrorist attacks. The New England Journal of Medicine published a survey of residents of Manhattan post 9-11 attacks. They found that 7.5% of the respondents reported symptoms consistent with PTSD and 9.7% reported symptoms consistent with depression. There was a direct link between how close one lived to the Twin Towers and the likelihood to develop PTSD. Twenty percent of those living in the vicinity of the World Trade Center showed signs of PTSD. The findings also emphasized the vicarious impact of the attacks: most of those displaying negative symptoms of PTSD and depression had not been physically at the Center when the attack occurred, they had not been in immediate danger and they were not related to direct victims. Instead, these people turned to television, radio, and the Internet, to learn about what had happened, and for some, the media had then become an extremely significant vector of fear. Despite the absence of major violence in US for the past decade, terrorism has never left the public consciousness. It has remained a high profile political and public issue. Enormous debate and coverage is given to the threat of terrorism. In the past ten years, the average American is much more likely to have been struck by lightning than to have been caught up

Despite the absence of major violence in US for the past decade, terrorism has never left the public consciousness.
in a terrorist attack. Yet such statistics appear to have done little to reassure the people however. The hype is probably because of the enormous attention given to terrorist alerts. A recent telephone survey of nearly 1000 people in Islamabad alone found that changes in the news break alert system are associated with increased signs of distress among a survey. When the newsbreak alert on TV appeared, suspending

the normal transmission these people showed increased levels of depression, anxiety, phobic responses and other signs of PTSD. When the alert levels dropped back to normal, the symptoms again spiked indicating that public reminders of the danger acted as a stressor regardless of the direction of the change. Most psychological strain is often not seen when attacks are frequent and common, but when they are rare and unpredictable. In the later circumstances it is harder to develop a sense of control over the situation, and in the end, having a sense of control is important without it we are much more susceptible to our fears. In some respects, Pakistan today faces the worst of both worlds. The absence of any terrorist attacks in the country would help create an impression of normality. This impression is constantly jostled by the terror warnings and media speculation of an impending threat. This balancing act seems to have no end any time sooner. Yet a checked and balanced representation of the televised acts of terror could help safeguard the social psychology.

Dr Fawad Kaiser is a forensic psychiatrist at ' Care Principles' in Norwich, having been Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Assistant Dean of University Affairs at Shifa International Hospital in Islamabad.

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WORLD
measures/mechanisms already introduced in the said democratization package, the PM said further that administrative arrangements in the package will be changed through circulars and regulations. Moreover, administrative arrangements will involve lifting the ban on wearing headscarf in public offices and taking the student oath in primary schools as well as the opening of Roman language and institute and returning the Mor Gabriel monastery to the Orthodox. It is now decided that all legal barriers impeding the return of minority foundations' assets are to be removed. The assets of Greeks and Armenians were confiscated by a decree passed by the Republican People's Party in 1936. A later decree, passed in 2011, enabled the return of these assets to foundations. He said the package is going to underpin Turkey's stability and it will neither be the first nor the last of forthcoming amendments and updates. It appears that the ruling party in Turkey has decided to win the hearts of many minorities especially Kurds for achieving greater national reconciliation in the country which would bring high levels of socio-economic prosperity, geopolitical harmony and the last but not the least, geo-strategic stability in the system. Many pro-Kurdish parties said the announced measures in the recently announced democratization package are short of expectations. The package does not have the capacity to overcome blockages in the peace process. Terming the proposed reform on mother tongue instruction in schools as ineffective and insufficient as this would only apply to private feepaying institutions. Critical analysis of this democratization package shows that allowing election campaigns to be conducted in languages other than Turkish and decriminalizing the use of Kurdish letters not found in the Turkish alphabet would be a game changer for the Kurdish community in the country. Moreover, ban on all primary school students in state schools to recite a deeply nationalistic vow at the start of each week, which begins with the words: "I am a Turk" would definitely win many hearts fighting on the mountains for a specific social, culture recognition and of course economic stake and survival in

Turkey
in sight

A new

Education in Kurdish is one of the most important issues among the reforms. For the further promotion of regional languages and dialects, Prime Minister Erdoan went on to say that some letters such as W,X and Q which are not within the presently used alphabet will be used and legal arrangements will be made to pave the way for their use.

M
NOV 2013

Aamir Rizvi

ost recently, the Turkish PM Recep Erdogan has introduced a number of reforms relating to political rights, party organization, and propaganda in non-Turkish languages. It has already started a hot debate in the country. The government defends it as another giant step (silent revolution) towards further democratization process while opposition labels it as treats to please the protesters on the roads. Nevertheless, it has strong socio-economic, geo-political and geo-strategic implications. He opened three different systems of elections to debate as to how the new election system will shape. The reforms offer three options for the electoral system, which will be decided based on public support and political parties' preferences: a majoritarian system with the current 10 percent threshold lowered to 5 percent retention of the current system; or a majoritarian system that would divide Turkey into 550 30

electoral districts and eliminate election thresholds. He said further that the democratization package will give the opportunity to launch election campaigns and propaganda in different languages and dialects, noting that preventing the fulfillment of religious faith will be punished as violation of basic right and freedoms. It further enhances the participation of regional political parties and factions in the main stream politics. Political parties will only need to obtain

3 percent of the vote to qualify for state financial assistance. The current requirement is 7 percent. Education in Kurdish is one of the most important issues among the reforms. For the further promotion of regional languages and dialects, Prime Minister Erdoan went on to say that some letters such as W,X and Q which are not within the presently used alphabet will be used and legal arrangements will be made to pave the way for their use. Previously, there

was plenty of imprisonment on the use of W, Q and X letters used widely in Kurdish. They have been excluded from keyboards, and violation of their use has been punishable by two to six months in jail. He said whatever is necessary for education in different languages and dialects in private schools to be established will be done and noted the legal barriers standing in the way of changing village names will be lifted and the Nevehir University will be re-named as Hac Bekta University. It shows the strong commitment of the PM and his government towards social development especially in the field of education. It also stresses the need to have multi-cultural and multi-linguistic approach the arena of complex corporate world where profits become first. Talking on the different administrative

Different Political Parties Augments

Pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party Proposals, presented by Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, are not enough to satisfy Kurdish militants who this month halted their withdrawal from Turkish territory. It is also not satisfied with the democratization package. According to it Turkey's human rights record has crippled the economy in the mainly Kurdish southeast of the country. More than 40,000 people have been killed in fighting since 1984.

Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)

the days to come. Many administrative arrangements are mentioned in the recently announced democratization package which would further brighten the greater political participation of the Kurdish political parties and factions in the Turkish Parliament. In a major policy speech, Erdogan said parliament would debate whether to reduce the threshold for a political party to enter parliament to 5 percent of the national vote, or even eliminate the barrier completely, and introduce a "narrowing" of the current constituency system. Previously, the current 10 percent threshold, among the highest in the world, has kept pro-Kurdish groupings outside of parliament and has been one of the main grievances of Turkey's Kurds who make up around a fifth of the country's 76 million population. On the contrary with the threshold removed, BDPs deputies would increase substantially. The package also would lower the percentage of votes needed to qualify for parties to get treasury assistance to 3 percent. This would provide treasury assistance to the BDP. The PM sincerely initiated a strategic move in the current democratization package proposing reforms to restrictions on the Islamic head scarf, saying women employees would be allowed to cover their heads at state institutions except in the military and security services, as judges and prosecutors. It would increase greater role of women in the public-private sectors. It would minimize the chances of gender discrimination in the society at large. A low employment enrollment of the females has been the basic weakness in the Turkish economy which is now hopefully rectified after this democratization package.

The writer is Islamabad based journalist

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Selected Economic Indicators (%) GDP growth Inflation Current account balance (share of GDP) Source: ADB estimates (2013-2014). Tausif ur Rehman national budget of Azerbaijan grew 19 times over the last 10 years. It accounts for 75 percent of South Caucasus economy. Over $138 billion has been invested in economy. Incomes of population grew 6.9 percent, pensions 8.6 percent while salaries grew 6.3 times. It should be emphasized that in the Global Competitiveness 2013-2014 Index, Azerbaijan is unconditionally ahead of all the countries of Eastern Europe, as well as a number of developed countries, including Italy. Moreover, in WEF rating Azerbaijan is ahead of the BRICS countries, except for China. However, the ranking of the World Economic Forum is not the only report that reflects the ongoing development of Azerbaijan's economy. Not so long ago, international rating agency Fitch Ratings, Standard & Poor's and Moody's have also improved the credit rating of Azerbaijan, which is also a good indicator of reforms. The Presidents policy of diversification of macro-economy, non-oil sector has grown 10 percent more over the first seven months of the current year. Improvement in the ranking by 7 points compared to the report for 2012-2013 and by 16 points compared to the report for 2010-2011 reflects the success and efficiency of economic and social policy of the President now paying its dividends. One of the important actors of free market economy i.e. foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased in the country i.e. US$ 25.4 billion in January-July, 2013.

2013 3.1 6.7 13.0

2014 4.8 7.0 17.0

Azerbaijan Past, a key to its future

The comparative study of Azerbaijans stable socio-economic performance shows that the GDP growth reached 1.3 percent in 1996, 5.8 percent in 1997, and averaged 10 percent during 1998-2003. From 2004-2011 the country`s real GDP grew by three times.
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resident Ilham Aliyev has been sworn in as the President of Azerbaijan, for the next five year term, after winning the October 9, 2013 presidential elections. He received 84.55 percent of the votes. According to the Central Election Commission of Azerbaijan, ten candidates contested the elections. The total number of polling stations was 5,492, among them 37 stations were present in the diplomatic and consular missions of Azerbaijan in foreign countries. Sustainable economic development, further democratization, social development and above all national sovereignty remained the main topics during the elections. More than 53,000 observers, including 1300 international observers were invited by the Government and Parliament of Azerbaijan, which represented 100 countries and 50 international and non-governmental organizations, such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and its Parliamentary Assembly, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe , the European Parliament, the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development GUAM, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, the Economic Cooperation Organization, the Council of Turkic Speaking Countries and others. The comparative study of Azerbaijans stable socio-economic performance shows that the GDP growth reached 1.3 percent in 1996, 5.8 percent in 1997, and averaged 10 percent during 1998-2003. From 2004-2011 the country`s real GDP grew by three times. Critical analysis of the President Ilham Aliyev socio-economic performance during the last decade indicates tremendous socio-economic prosperity. Diversification of production and survival resources has been one of his main strategic priorities. The revenues of energy exploration, production and supply have been utilized to eradicate the high levels of poverty reduced from over 50 per cent to just six per cent. Process of industrialization, has been encouraged and finances from the oil and gas fields has been carefully channeled into education, and Human Resource Management (HRM) through the State Oil Fund of the Azerbaijani Republic (SOFAZ). Over the last decade, Azerbaijan has transformed into a leading regional investor, financing multi-billion projects in different countries of the world. Azerbaijan has significantly improved its positions in the annual ranking list of world economies for 2013-2014 while consolidating its status of a country with the most competitive economy among the CIS states. The

Many economic research studies uphold the importance of political stability and continuation of socio-economic policies and political reforms. Many countries of the Latin America, MENA, Asia and even EU gained and maintained the high levels of qualitative life because of political stability and unity of command. Recent ongoing political chaos in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Kenya has already produced serious dints in their marc-economies. Ilham Aliyevs strategic vision has successfully transformed the shores of Azerbaijan into hub of energy resources. Now migratory birds of FDIs are hatching their eggs in the nests of Azerbaijan. The economy of Europe is dependent on the easy and smooth supplies of its energy resources. Ilham Aliyev has also made Azerbaijan a regional commercial center and bridge to many regional and transactional countries. During the last decade, besides, the opening of new industries/corporations and job creation in the non-oil sector, the extraordinary development of the manufacturing, transport and utilities infrastructure, the establishment of modern social facilities, including educational, health and sports institutions, laid the foundation for the countrys all-round development. Due to his wise leadership, society is tolerant, free from any chauvinism. Political system is maturated enough to rheostat any shock. Economy is strong, stable and sustainable. The building of a democratic society and a

system of transparent public relations has been the key direction of state policies in the years of independence. During the last decade political pluralism has been nurtured as the necessary foundation of sustainable progress. Effective legal and democratic conditions have been institutionalized in the realms of political parties. A total of 55 political parties are registered in Azerbaijan, of which 11 are represented in parliament. Commercial diplomacy has achieved high levels of strategic cushion. High levels of exports, inflows of FDI and joint ventures are the few examples of its rigorous commercial diplomacy. Presidents pragmatic foreign policy has minimized its foreign reliance. Its strong military is ready to respond any external aggression. Better public health care and medication have been one of the salient features in the past decade. More than 650 million manats were allocated for the sector. Over 400 medical institutions have been built or renovated in the vast majority of Azerbaijani districts in the last 10 years. All of these have been fitted with state-of-the-art equipment and technology. In Azerbaijan religion is sacred but rituals are not allowed to dominate on others faiths and factions. Discrimination is a bygone story and fairy tales of dialogue among the different civilizations and culture are commonly welcomed in every part of the Azerbaijan. Doves of harmony, peace and progress are flying high. Social security, better education, creation of employment are the salient features of the Ilham Aliyev. Respect for the humanity, political indifference and high levels of transparency, accountability and corruption free business facilities have made Azerbaijan, an ideal destination of FDI and joint ventures. The writer is Islamabad based journalist and can be reached a islamabadpbc@ gmail.com 33
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REPORT
in Social Policy was held before the concluding session. The session was chaired by member national assembly Mr. Asad Omar while the panelists included renowned economists and delegates from India, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Dr. Akmal Hussain in his introductory remarks elaborated the significance of economic potential in the south. He established that it is for the first time in three centuries that the global economy has shifted to India and China in the south. However he indicated that the Global economic crises, growing inequality between and within states and the Global environmental crises might be the largest challenges faced by developmental economy. Dr. Santosh Mehrotra, A senior economist from India elaborated the idea of reducing poverty in India through better economic choices and raising the poverty line. A rebalancing of economy, he stated, was common to any developing nation. Khalid Malik, Director HDRO, UNDP New York, said that the report will present an argument for a sustained enhancement of capabilities of individuals and societies as being critical to reducing vulnerabilities and deepening progress The Human Development Report examines different aspects of human development, measuring many other interrelated factors along in the process. The theme of 2014 Report is Sustaining Human Development: Addressing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience. The 2014 report is of great significance in reference to post 2015 global development discussions as it presents a strong rationale for a fairer world, and the need for solidarity and attention to those who are particularly vulnerable to an economic meltdown. Mr. Marc-Andre Franche, Country

NUST organizes Regional Consultation on 2014 UNHDR

Ahsaas Wasti India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. The guests from Pakistan included Mr. Asad Umar (Member National Assembly), Dr. Ishrat Hussain (Director IBA& Former Governor State Bank of Pakistan), Dr. Hafiz Pasha (Former Finance Minister of Pakistan), Dr. Salman Shah (Former Advisor to Ministry of Finance), Dr. Akmal Hussain (Vice Chairman, BNU Institute of Public Policy, Pakistan) and Dr. Akram Sheikh (Former Deputy Chairman Planning Commission). In his inaugural address, Rector NUST, Engineer Muhammad Asghar, identified investment in human development as a key to promote peace and stability in the region. He articulated the importance of Human Development Report stating the report has been forcing decisionmakers around the globe to rethink their policies to meet upcoming challenges of human development. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon also sent a special message for the event highlighting the importance of sustainable development and resilient progress in all countries on an accelerated pace. He said: Despite rapid economic growth in south Asia poverty still persists. Reduction in inequalities is to be one of the main priorities as it will in turn lead to reduction in vulnerability and strengthening of resilience in the populations. The Chief Guest of the event was Mr. Tariq Fatemi, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs. In his address he emphasized the need to enhance the capabilities of people in South Asia, in order to protect them from vulnerabilities. He added, The presence of so many best minds from south Asia under the banner of the UN and NUST gives us assurances that in the remaining 800 days global leader are determined to come as close in achieving the remaining targets as possible. The second day of the consultation highlighted important sessions on regional Human Development, economic inequalities and social policies. A significant session on Universalism

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0th and 31st October 2013 marked the Consultation on 2014 Human Development Report and Discussion on Human Development in South Asia at NUST Islamabad campus. The consultation was jointly organized by The Human Development Report Office (New York), United Nations Development Program Pakistan and National University of Sciences & Technology. The event witnessed a participation of best regional economic minds who shared their experiences and knowledge with the participants. These included the leading economists and policy makers from South Asia, including 34

Director UNDP Pakistan appreciated NUST for the international standard arrangements and providing an amazing opportunity to all the stakeholders to gather under one umbrella. Rector NUST Engineer Muhammad Asghar highlighted the significance of the event and thanked all the dignitaries, esteemed guests and regional speakers, for attending the event and making it successful by contributing to the consultation process. At the occasion he also announced the establishment of the NUST Centre for Human Development Studies in NUST School of Social Sciences and Humanities. In his concluding remarks, Dr. Ashfaque Hasan Khan, Principal & Dean NUST School of Social Sciences & Humanities (S3H), revisited the problems and hardships faced by the management in organizing an event of such global significance. He shared with the guests that the event was a fruit of nearly a year of planning and efforts. He appreciated UNDP staff and leadership in their continuous support and assistance during the event. Dr. Khan also shared with the esteemed economists and dignitaries that the government has offered to launch the 2014 UNHDR in Pakistan as well. He announced another event in the pipelines for the next year under the banner of International Model United Nations for January. The event would be organized at NUST and would include 0ver 1000 students from 44 International educational institutions representing over 28 countries. Concluding the conference he added that this consultation would help in realigning and strengthening the commitment that the people of south Asia have towards their own people. The national and international guests lauded the arrangements put in place by the NUST administration and the Economic Society

of NUST in successful deliberation of this international event. They said the event provided an excellent opportunity for the academic community, policy makers and the students to share their vision for Human Development in South Asia. The consultation on the 2014 Human Development Report concluded with an opportunity for the academic youth, national economists and policy makers to listen to the greatest economic minds of South Asia under one roof. The insightful discussions and intriguing Q&A sessions introduced interesting backdrops to the event promoting the national talent to reach out to international participants. Organization of such events in the future could prove worthwhile for both the academic and economic minds of Pakistan.

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Canadian High Commission in Pakistan celebrates Canada in Fall 2013

Consultation on 2014 UNHDR at NUST

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