Stabilisation levels

Eventual and probability

Temperature ranges forto
change(relative temperature increases
pre-industial)

00 11 22 33 44 55
Falling crop yields in many developing regions
Falling crop yields in many developing regions
Food
Food
Severe impacts
Severe impacts Entire regions experience major
in marginal Rising number of people at risk from Entire regions experience major
in marginal Rising number of people at risk from declines in crop yields
Sahel region hunger, with 1/2 of the increase in declines in crop yields
Sahel region hunger, with 1/2 of the increase in (up to 1/3 in Africa)
Africa and West Asia (up to 1/3 in Africa)
Africa and West Asia

Rising crop yields in high-latitude developed Yields in many developed regions

Rising crop yields in high-latitude developed Yields in many developed regions
countries if strong carbon fertilization decline even if strong carbon fertilization
countries if strong carbon fertilization decline even if strong carbon fertilization

Significant changes in water availability

Water
Water
Small mountain glaciers
Small mountain glaciers
disappear worldwide,
disappear worldwide,
potential threat to water
potential threat to water
supplies in several areas
supplies in several areas
Significant changes in water availability
(e.g. more than a billion people suffer
(e.g. more than a billion people suffer
water shortages in the 2080s, many in Africa,
water shortages in the 2080s, many in Africa,
while a similar number gain water)
while a similar number gain water) Sea level rise threatens
Sea level rise threatens
major world cities including
major world cities including
Greater than 30% decrease London, Shanghai, New
Greater than 30% decrease London, Shanghai, New
in runoff in Mediterranean York and Hong Kong
in runoff in Mediterranean York and Hong Kong
and Southern Africa
and Southern Africa

Possible onset of collapse

Coral reef ecosystems Possible onset of collapse
Coral reef ecosystems of part or all of Amazon
extensively and eventually of part or all of Amazon
extensively and eventually rainforest
irreversibly damaged rainforest
irreversibly damaged
Large fraction of ecosystems unable to maintain current form
Large fraction of ecosystems unable to maintain current form
Many species
Many species face
face extinction
extinction
Ecosystems
Ecosystems
(20 –– 50%
(20 50% in
in one
one study)
study)

Extreme Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

(c) WWF-Canon / Martin HARVEY

Extreme Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Weather
Weather Small increases
Small increases in in hurricane
hurricane
Events
Events
intensity lead
intensity lead to
to aa doubling
doubling of
of
damage costs
damage costs in
in the
the U.S
U.S

Risk of
Risk of Rapid
Rapid Risk of weakening of natural carbon absorption and possible increasing
Risk of weakening of natural carbon absorption and possible increasing
Climate Change
Climate Change natural methane releases and weakening of the Atlantic THC
natural methane releases and weakening of the Atlantic THC
and Major
and Major
Onset of
Onset of irreversible
irreversible melting
melting Increasingrisk
Increasing riskofofabrupt,
abrupt,large-scale
large-scaleshifts
shiftsininthe
the
Irreversible
Irreversible of the
of the Greenland
Greenland ice ice sheet
sheet climatesystem
climate system(e.g.
(e.g.collapse
collapseofofthe
theAtlantic
AtlanticTHC
THC
Impacts
Impacts
andthe
and theWest
WestAntarctic
AntarcticIce
IceSheet)
Sheet)

Source : Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change