spe396-14 2nd pages

Geological Society of America

Special Paper 396
2005

Computational modeling of lava flows: A review

Antonio Costa†
Giovanni Macedonio
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano, 328 - 80124 Napoli, Italy

ABSTRACT

Risks and damages related to effusive eruptions (e.g., the most recent Etna erup-
tions) require satisfactory models to reliably forecast lava flow paths. An overview of
the principal approaches used to forecast lava flow invasion is presented: from the
simple probabilistic methods to the more complex computational fluid dynamics (CFD)
models. Lava flow simulations can be used for planning the evacuation or organizing
countermeasures for risk mitigation during an effusive eruption. In this case, a deter-
ministic approach can be very useful to forecast lava flow paths, flow front velocity,
and possibly to simulate the effects of the human intervention such as the effects of lava
diversion, the presence of natural or artificial barriers, etc. On the other hand, simple
probabilistic models (PM) based on the “maximum slope” are able to account only for
the topographic effects and, although less accurate, they can provide useful information
in a very short time. These simple models also can be used in the production of hazard
maps, where lava invasion probability of a given site is indicated. Typically, these maps
account for different probabilities of vents opening in different areas.

Keywords: lava flows, volcanic modeling, volcanic hazard assessment, numerical

simulation.

INTRODUCTION the atmosphere by convection and radiation, or into the underly-

ing solid by conduction (Griffiths, 2000). Moreover, kinematics
Effusive eruptions produce lava flows with features that and dynamic behavior of lava flows may dramatically changes
mainly depend on magma rheological properties, effusion rate, with lava temperature variations because of the strong tempera-
and topography (Hulme, 1974; Hess, 1980; Chester et al., 1985; ture-dependence on viscosity (Wylie and Lister, 1998; Costa and
Dobran et al., 1990). Lava flows typically have very complex Macedonio, 2003).
behavior, such as: (1) a non-Newtonian rheology; (2) formation At present a complete simulation of all these phenom-
of crust, levèes, and tunnels; (3) transitions between different ena, although possible in principle, does not exist, and current
flow regimes, such as pahoehoe, `a`a, and blocky lava; (5) change models describe only a part of the observed phenomena. This
in the topography during the flow; (6) formation of ephemeral paper focuses mainly on reviewing the different computational
boccas; (7) flow bifurcations; (8) surmounting of natural or arti- approaches utilized to simulate lava flows emplacement.
ficial barriers, etc. Concerning models for lava flow emplacement there are
Lava cooling is governed by the coupling of energy trans- basically two categories: deterministic models and probabilistic
port in the flowing lava with heat transfer from lava surface into models. In this short review we do not describe empirical models,
which correlate field data from past eruptions and can be used to
†
E-mail: costa@ov.ingv.it. provide additional information for more complex models.
Costa, A., Macedonio, G., 2005, Computational modeling of lava flows: A review, in Manga, M., and Ventura, G., eds., Kinematics and dynamics of lava flows:
Geological Society of America Special Paper 396, p. 209–218. doi: 10.1130/2005.2396(14). For permission to copy, contact editing@geosociety.org. ©2005
Geological Society of America.

209

210 A. Costa and G. Macedonio
Deterministic models are based on the solution of the
transport equations, such as mass conservation, momentum and
energy balances, and account for the magma rheological proper-
ties. They can be usefully utilized to simulate lava flow paths or
the effects of the human interventions, such as, for instance, lava
diversion or the presence of natural or artificial barriers (e.g.,
Macedonio and Longo, 1999).
Due to the high complexity of the transport equations, even
numerical solution of the complete three-dimensional problem
for real lava flows is often impossible. To overcome these com-
putational difficulties, simplified models are adopted, including
cellular automata (CA) and two-dimensional (2D) models.
Besides the CA approach, we describe a simplified 2D model
based on the shallow water equations (SWE), i.e., the conserva-
tion equations for depth-averaged velocities, temperature, and
lava depth, which result in first-order partial differential equa-
tions (Costa and Macedonio, 2005). CA models use methods able
to account for mass conservation, radiative heat exchange with
the atmosphere, variations of the viscosity with the temperature,
and the non-Newtonian magma behavior (Crisci et al., 1986;
Barca et al., 1987, 1988, 1993; Ishihara et al., 1988, 1989; Miya-
moto and Sasaki, 1997; Crisci et al., 2004).
On the other hand, probabilistic models based on the maxi-
mum slope (Macedonio et al., 1990; Dobran and Macedonio,
1992; Barberi and Villari, 1994) are able to account only for the
topographic effects and, although less accurate, they can provide
useful information in a very short time. Moreover, Wadge et
al. (1994) presented a method for the assessment of the hazard
posed by the lava flows using both a deterministic and a proba-
bilistic model.
Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches are very
useful in organizing countermeasures for risk mitigation dur-
ing an effusive eruption. Knowledge of the likely path and front
velocity of a lava flow is very important for organizing evacua-
tions, while knowledge of the probability that a particular zone
will be overrun by a lava flow is important for long-term plan-
ning purposes. A hazard map has to contain quantitative informa-
tion on the probability that a site may be inundated by a lava flow
under a set of several conditions, such as different effusion rate,
vent location, lava temperature, etc.
As an example of lava flow prediction, some reconstructed
lava flow paths, and hazard maps obtained by the models
described in the following are shown. In the next section, we
describe deterministic models both based on the numerical solu-
tion of transport equations and based on the CA method. Follow-
ing that, we present simpler probabilistic models based on the
maximum-slope criterion.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS BASED ON TRANSPORT
THEORY
Following the transport theory, lava flow is modeled by a
set of differential equations that describe the mass conservation,
the momentum and the energy balances. The resulting equations
spe396-14 2nd pages
(Navier-Stokes equations) are highly nonlinear and their solution
is a hard task. Moreover, non-Newtonian lava behavior, presence
of a free surface, and nonlinear boundary conditions in the energy
equation (heat loss by radiation) increase the complexity of the
problem. During cooling, levèes form laterally, and as lava cools,
the flow may exhibit regime transitions from pahoehoe to `a`a
flows and blocky flows, which need different modeling.
Under the reasonable hypotheses of incompressible fluid
and constant specific heat, the dynamics of lava flows are gen-
erally described by the following transport equations for mass,
momentum, and energy, respectively:
∇ · v = 0, (1)
ρ ∂v/∂t + ρ v · ∇v = –∇P+ ρg + ∇·τ, (2)
ρ ∂l/∂t + ρ v · ∇l = k∇2T + τij ∂vi/∂xj, (3)
where ρ is the fluid density, v is the velocity vector, g represents
the gravity force, P is the pressure, τ is the stress tensor, l is the
enthalpy per unit mass, T is the temperature, and k is the thermal
conductivity. The last term on the right side of equation 3 rep-
resents the internal heat generated by viscous dissipation (Ein-
stein’s notation about summation over repeated indices is used).
Buoyancy effects and latent heat release due to crystallization are
not considered (enthalpy is simply given by the product between
a constant specific heat and temperature).
To solve the transport equations 1, 2, and 3, boundary condi-
tions must be specified for the velocity v and the temperature T.
Alternatively, prescribed values of the stress tensor τ and pressure
P, and/or heat fluxes may be present. Usually, conditions of the
former type apply to the inlet (or outlet) or to no-slip boundar-
ies, whereas the boundary condition of the latter type applies to
the slip boundaries (e.g., free surface, symmetry surfaces, etc.).
Moreover, the time integration of the transport equations requires
the definition of the initial field of the dependent variables v,
T, and P at time t = 0. Finally, in order to account for the non-
Newtonian behavior of lava, crystallization and solidification, a
stopping criterion has to be imposed. Therefore, current com-
putational models commonly assume lava flows as a Bingham
liquid with a non-null yield strength, i.e., when lava thickness
becomes lower than a critical minimum value, local flow stops
(e.g., Miyamoto and Sasaki, 1997).
A qualitative sketch of a lava flow model is shown in the
Figure 1, where the usual boundary conditions prescribed at a
lava flow vent, base, and surface are indicated.
Three-Dimensional Models
The LavaSIM code (Fujita et al., 2004) seems to be a
promising example of a three-dimensional computational fluid
dynamics (CFD) model for lava flow simulation (the code is
basically based on the algorithm described in Hidaka and Ujita
[2001] and Hidaka et al. [2002]). LavaSIM is able to account
 spe396-14 2nd pages

Computational modeling of lava flows: A review 211

Figure 1. Sketch of a lava flow model. The figure schematically shows a lava flow with variable
depth h and crust thickness on a slope inclined with an angle α. Boundary conditions at the vent, at
the bottom, and at the free surface are also indicated, and represent the lava emission temperature
and the lava vent velocity, respectively. As boundary conditions at the lava-ground interface, we
indicate no-slip boundary conditions for the momentum equation (V = 0) and the assumptions of
constant basal temperature or constant basal heat flux for the energy equation. Similarly, at the up-
per surface, we indicated the free-surface condition for the momentum (by setting a null transversal
component of the stress tensor) and the assumptions of constant efficient superficial temperature or
constant superficial heat flux for the energy equation.

for three-dimensional convection, spreading and solidification,
temperature-viscosity dependence of magma, and minimum
spreading thickness. The model accurately formulates the bound-
ary interface between melt and crust. The code is able to deal
with the free surface by associating an attribute to each mesh cell
(convection or free surface). The convection mesh is completely
filled with lava melt or crust, the free surface mesh is not com-
pletely filled and represents the external boundaries of the flow.
Heat and mass transfer associated with melt flow propagation are
modeled by updating these mesh attributes. In the code formula-
tion it is necessary to assume lava melt does not scatter into the
atmosphere and the crust floats and moves only vertically (which
does not fully reflect the actual behavior). The stopping criterion
is based on the minimum spreading thickness due to the non-null
lava yield stress. The model was applied to simulate lava flows at
Mt. Fuji (Fujita et al., 2004).
Currently, the high complexity of the dynamics of actual
lava flows has not yet permitted the development of satisfac-
tory and efficient three-dimensional CFD codes. To overcome
the computational difficulties, simplified models are usually
adopted, including 2D model and cellular automata (CA).
Simulation by Cellular Automata
In the literature, different simplified models have been pre-
sented based on the CA method for the evaluation of volcanic
hazard by lava flow. Among these, Crisci et al. (1986) and Barca
et al. (1987) developed a three-dimensional model based on CA
for the simulation of lava flows. This model was then simplified
to a two-dimensional one by Barca et al. (1988).
Formally, a cellular automata is a quadruple A = (Ed,X,S,σ)
where Ed is a set of cells identified by points with integer coor-
dinates in a d-dimensional Euclidean space, X is a set of vectors
defining the neighbors of each cell, S is a finite set of states that
each elementary automaton may assume, and σ is a deterministic
transition function for the states S of a cell as a function of the
states of the neighboring cells (Barca et al., 1993; Cannataro et
al., 1995).
The model assumes the space inhabited by lava flow may be
partitioned in terms of discrete volume (cells) to which a set of
parameters is associated: (1) altitude of the cell; (2) lava thickness;
(3) lava temperature; and (4) four (or six) lava fluxes to and from
the neighboring cells (see Fig. 2). These parameters may vary as a
consequence of an interaction with a neighboring cell, or because
of an imposed global condition that affects all the cells simultane-
ously (Barca et al., 1993). A set of rules was given for changing a
given parameter at each time step. For example, the cell altitude
remains unchanged until lava reaches a given temperature and
solidifies; at this time the altitude of the cell is increased by the
value of lava thickness inside the cell, and the lava thickness is
reset to zero. Flows among the cells are allowed as a consequence
of the different hydrostatic pressure of the lava among neighboring
cells. Lava rheology is accounted for by introducing a minimum
lava level below which no flow is possible. This minimum level
(adherence parameter) was allowed to vary with the temperature
according to an exponential law. Temperature also varies during

212 A. Costa and G. Macedonio
lava cooling by thermal radiation (for the complete algorithm
specifications, see Di Gregorio and Serra, 1999).
This model was validated, for instance, in the reconstruction
of the 1986–1987 Etnean lava flow field on a sequential computer
with a computation time comparable to the actual event (several
days). A parallel implementation of the code has permitted the
application to the 1991–1993 Etna eruption with simulation time
of about 1 h (Cannataro et al., 1995). An improvement of this
2D model, called SCIARA, uses hexagonal instead of square
cells (see Fig. 2). SCIARA was used to reconstruct recent lava
flows such as, for instance, the July 2001 event (see Fig. 3) and
was applied to determine hazard zones in the Catania, Italy, area
(Crisci et al., 2003, 2004).
Another model proposed by Ishihara et al. (1988, 1989) also
assumes lava behaves like a Bingham fluid whose viscosity and
yield strength depends on the temperature. The computational
domain is divided into two-dimensional square cells with fixed
dimensions. During each time step the lava volume variation in
each cell is computed as the sum of the mass flows across the cell
boundaries. This ensures the continuity equation is satisfied at
each time step. The mass flow rates across each boundary of the
cell are computed as a function of the thickness and the physical
parameters of lava in the given cell. The flow is allowed to propa-
gate only after lava has reached a minimum critical thickness.
This also acts as a limiting factor for the numerical diffusion.
Moreover, an energy balance equation based on the radiative
heat exchange is solved to account for lava temperature in each
cell. The model employs a propagation rule to compute the mass
flux across each cell boundary based on the analytical studies of
Dragoni et al. (1986) for stationary lava flow on an inclined plane.
The most dramatic assumption is the flow rate between two cells
Figure 2. Sketch of the hexagonal cells used by the cellular automata
(CA) model called SCIARA (after Crisci et al., 2004). The indices
specify the outflows of the central cell toward the adjacent cells.
spe396-14 2nd pages
does not depend on the difference of lava thickness inside the
cells but it is only a function of the different topographic eleva-
tions between the two cells. This assumption strongly simplifies
the computational algorithm by neglecting coupling effects
among the cells and reduces the computational time. This model
was utilized by the authors to reconstruct the Sakurajima (Japan)
1914 effusive eruption, showing an agreement with the field data
in the first phases of the simulation.
The CA method used by Miyamoto and Sasaki (1997) repre-
sents an improvement of the Ishihara et al. (1988, 1989) model.
In fact, the Miyamoto and Sasaki (1997) method extends the
applicability of the model to a flat or little-inclined plane, which
considers the effects of self-gravity and includes a correction to
strongly reduce the well-known problem of mesh dependence in
the CA method. The code was validated using data from the 1983
Miyakejima lava flow.
Two-Dimensional Models Based on Depth-Averaged
Equations
Recently, Costa and Macedonio (2005) presented a model
based on depth-averaged equations obtained by integrating mass,
momentum, and energy equations over the depth of fluid from
the bottom up to the free surface.
Depth-averaged flow models based on the so-called shallow
water equations (SWE) were first introduced by De Saint Venant
in 1864 and Boussinesq in 1872. Currently, applications of the
shallow water, or St. Venant, equations include a wide range of
problems that have important implications for hazard assessment
from flood simulation (Burguete et al., 2002) to tsunami propaga-
tion (Heinrich et al., 2001).
This approach is valid within the limit H*2/L*2 « 1 (where
H* is the undisturbed fluid height and L* the characteristic wave-
length scale in the flow direction). This means we are dealing
with very long waves or with “shallow water.”
Assuming an incompressible homogeneous fluid and a
hydrostatic pressure distribution, the shallow water equations for
a uniform or gradually varied flow, are given by:
∂h/∂t + ∂(Uh)/∂x + ∂(Vh)/∂y = 0, (4)
+ +
) (
∂ (Uh ) ∂ (β xxU h + gh / 2 ∂ β yxUVh
2 2
=
)
− gh∂H
− γU, (5)
∂t ∂x ∂y ∂x
+
( +
) (
∂ (Vh ) ∂ β xyUVh ∂ β yyV h + gh / 2
2 2
=
)
− gh∂H
− γV, (6)
∂t ∂x ∂y ∂y
where h is the depth of the fluid measured from the altitude of
the terrain surface H (bed), (U,V) = 1/h∫H(H+h)u(x,y,z)dz and are
the depth-averaged fluid velocity components, βxx, βyx, βyy are
correction factors (in the range 0.5–1.5), and γ is a dimensionless
friction coefficient depending on the fluid rheology and on the

Computational modeling of lava flows: A review
proprieties of both flow and bed. The gradients indicate the chan-
nel bottom slopes in both the directions x and y (xi = x,y). The
terms on the right sides represent the so-called source terms.
In the case of lava flows the viscosity is strongly temperature
dependent. For this reason, besides the equations 4, 5, and 6, it is
necessary to solve the equation for the energy conservation. Costa
and Macedonio (2005) adopted the following heuristic equation
for the depth-averaged temperature T(x,y) = 1/h∫H(H+h)T(x,y,z)dz:
∂(Th)/∂t+ ∂(βTxUTh)/∂x)+ ∂(βTyVTh)/∂y = – E(T4 – Tenv4)
– W(T – Tenv) – C(T – Tc) + K(U2 + V2)e–b(T – Tr), (7)
where Tc and Tenv are the temperatures at lava base interface and
of the external environment respectively, and βTxβTy , E, W, C, and
spe396-14 2nd pages
213
Figure 3. July 2001 Etna lava flow event
as observed (A) and as simulated using
SCIARA (B) (after Crisci et al., 2004).
K are a set of semi-empirical parameters. The first term on the
right side of the equation 7 represents the radiative exchange, the
second and the third account for the convective and conductive
heat transfer, respectively, and the last represents the viscous
heating term (Tr is a reference temperature, see below). More-
over, a simple exponential relationship between lava viscosity
and temperature was assumed (Costa and Macedonio, 2002):
μ = μrexp[–b(T – Tr)], (8)
where b is an appropriate rheological parameter and μr is the
viscosity value at the reference temperature Tr (for example, a
convenient choice is Tr = T0, with T0 equal to the emission tem-
perature at the vent). For the description of a thermal balance

214 A. Costa and G. Macedonio
in a lava flow context, similar to equation 7, see Keszthelyi and
Self (1998). Crystallization and crystallinity-dependence of the
viscosity are not explicitly considered, but they are implicitly
accounted for in the determination of the rheological parameters
in equation 8. Concerning the coefficient γ, which appears in
equations 5 and 6, Costa and Macedonio (2005) proposed a rela-
tionship similar to that used in the viscous regime including the
temperature-viscosity dependence:
γ = 3νr /h exp[–b(T – Tr)], (9)
where νr = μr /ρ is the kinematic viscosity and ρ the fluid density.
For the other semi-empirical parameters, it was assumed (Costa
and Macedonio, 2005):
C = nκ/h; E = εσf/(ρcp); W = λf/(ρcp); K = μrm/(hρcp), (10)
where κ = k/(ρcp) is the thermal diffusivity, σ the is Stephan-
Boltzmann is constant, f is the fractional area of the exposed hot
lava (Crisp and Baloga, 1990), ε is the emissivity, λ is the atmo-
spheric heat transfer coefficient, and n and m represent a fraction of
the characteristic boundary layer lengths (in the case of parabolic
velocity profile, n = 4 and m = 12 [Shah and Pearson, 1974]).
Equations 4, 5, 6, and 7 were solved by using an algorithm
based on the software package CLAWPACK available on the web
at http://www.amath.washington.edu/~rlj/clawpack.html. CLAW-
PACK is a public domain software package designed to compute
numerical solutions to hyperbolic partial differential equations
using a wave propagation approach (LeVeque, 1997, 2002).
As an example of an application to real lava flows, Costa and
Macedonio (2005) reported simulation results of some lava flow
events that occurred during the 1991–1993 Etna eruption. The
model was able to reproduce semiquantitatively the behavior of
the real lava flows and the magnitude of the involved quantities,
such as lava thickness and lava temperature, showing a good
agreement with field observations (see Fig. 4).
This approach appears to be a robust physical description
and a good compromise between the full three-dimensional
description and the need to decrease the computational time. The
good performance obtained from this preliminary version of the
model substantiates the model as a potential approach to reliably
forecast lava flow paths.
Simplified Models (FLOWGO)
An example of a model that tries to overcome the main intrin-
sic computational difficulties is FLOWGO (Harris and Rowland,
2001). FLOWGO is a self-adaptive numerical model that follows
lava elements down an open channel. The basis of the model is the
estimation of lava velocity as Bingham fluid flowing in a chan-
nel (using a semicircular or a very wide channel approximation
depending on the morphology). At each step in the calculation,
heat loss and gain are calculated in order to determine their effects
on lava rheology. Starting with some given initial conditions at
spe396-14 2nd pages
the vent, lava with new temperature, crystallinity, rheology, and
velocity calculated by the model is passed a unit length down-
channel and eventually stops if velocity is zero or the flow core
has reached the solidus temperature. The model was applied and
calibrated simulating flow field at Mauna Loa, Kilauea, and Etna
(Harris and Rowland, 2001). This model presents a means of
analyzing lava flow thermo-rheological relationships, identifying
important factors in determining how far a channel-fed flow can
extend, and assessing lava flow hazard.
Although this code adopts a detailed heat budget and an
accurate description of lava rheology, its principal limits are
intrinsically contained in the drastic assumption of one-dimen-
sional fully steady profile.
Simulation of the Flow Front Movement (FLOWFRONT)
In Young and Wadge (1990) and Wadge et al. (1994), a dif-
ferent computer model for the simulation of the lava flow front
behavior was presented. The main characteristic of this computer
program is its computational speed. This is achieved by simulating
only the front of a lava flow, assuming implicitly the arrival of the
lava to the front. For each iteration a volume of lava in excess of a
critical volume is distributed to its eight neighboring cells. Assum-
ing a Bingham rheology, this is possible when lava thickness is
large enough that the shear stress exceeds the yield strength on
that slope. Once a cell has successfully distributed its excess lava,
it becomes inactive during the next iteration (Wadge et al., 1994).
This model does not account for the variation of the lava rheology
with the temperature, but it permits variations in the effusion rate
and the yield strength. The model was applied to the 1988–1989
Lonquimay lava eruption. However, as noted by the authors, this
application has raised serious reservations about a deterministic
employment of this model. Better results were obtained by the
same authors for lava flows at Etna when a probabilistic approach
based on a Monte Carlo simulation was performed (Wadge et al.,
1994) (see Fig. 5). In this case the input parameters to the model
were randomly varied according to a previously computed prob-
ability evaluated by using a multivariate analysis on historical
records of past lava flows in the period 1763–1989.
PROBABILISTIC MODELS BASED ON THE
MAXIMUM SLOPE
In the model of Macedonio et al. (1990) it is assumed that
topography plays the major role in controlling lava flow path.
The identification of the different zones potentially invaded by
a lava flow is performed by computing the probability of inva-
sion by using a Monte Carlo algorithm. The flow is allowed to
propagate along random paths starting from a source point on a
topographic map by following a set of propagation rules. The
paths cannot propagate upward, whereas the downflow paths are
more probable along the maximum-slope direction. Due to the
probabilistic character of the propagation rules, the paths may
propagate also on a noisy topography with small morphologic
 spe396-14 2nd pages

Computational modeling of lava flows: A review 215

Figure 4. Simulated lava thickness of 3

and 4 January 1992 Etna lava flow (after
Costa and Macedonio, 2005).

Figure 5. Results of a probabilistic

mapping of the potential for lava flow
inundation on the flanks of Etna ob-
tained using FLOWFRONT. The colors
indicate the number of times an area
has been inundated (the total number
of simulations was 380) (after Wadge
et al., 1994).

216 A. Costa and G. Macedonio
barriers. When several paths are generated, areas with greater
probability are crossed many times, whereas areas with lower
probability are crossed very seldom. The flow paths have no
lateral dimensions and cannot fill basins; when many paths enter
a basin, they randomly propagate and spread until they touch
the walls of the basin and stop. Therefore, a basin behaves as
a sink for the flow paths, and this allows easy recognition of
them. Flow rate cannot be specified in the source points and the
program does not account for the time. It simply shows which
paths are more probable when a fluid is allowed to exit from the
source points. It must be noted that this program does not solve
physical equations and, for this reason, it allows fast computa-
tion of the invaded areas. However, since the results are only the
probabilities of fluid invasion without knowing the rheological
properties of the fluid, the main application of this model is gen-
erating hazard maps when the characteristics of the fluid are not
known. The program was used to evaluate the eruptions of Mt.
Etna of 1983, 1985, 1987, and 1989 and to evaluate a hazard map
for Mt. Etna (Macedonio et al., 1990) by using data on the spatial
distribution of historic eruptive vents and structural data from
Guest and Murray (1979) and Villari et al. (1988). This computer
program was utilized during the 1991–1993 Etna eruption by
Barberi et al. (1992b), Barberi and Villari (1994), and Dobran
and Macedonio (1992), providing in short time a hazard map
for the invaded areas (Barberi et al., 1992a, 1993; Dobran and
spe396-14 2nd pages
Figure 6. Simulation results of Macedo-
nio et al.’s (1990) probabilistic model
for the July 2001 Etna lava flow. A vent
sited at 2100 m above sea level with
UTM coordinates (500567; 4173373)
and a total number of 10,000 gener-
ated paths were considered. The color
mapping is proportional to the number
of times a path crosses a given area:
yellow corresponds to once, while red
corresponds to 10,000 times. From this
simulation, two branches are evident:
the first (in N-S direction), with a higher
probability, is well correlated with the
observed lava flow, while the second (in
the S-E direction), with a lower prob-
ability, was not observed. The UTM
coordinates of the bottom-left and of
the upper-right corner are (498000;
4167000) and (506000; 4174000), re-
spectively.
Macedonio, 1992), and more recently during the July 2001 Etna
eruption (see for example Fig. 6).
Recently, Favalli et al. (2005) followed a similar approach
by stochastically perturbing the topographic morphology with a
random length of the same order of the lava thickness.
Finally, preliminary results of new algorithms such as
the Lattice Boltzmann technique (e.g., D’Auria et al., 2005)
suggest that they can be satisfactorily applied to model these
complex phenomena.
CONCLUSIONS
We have presented a brief description of the currently avail-
able models to simulate lava flow paths. Deterministic models
are more rigorous, but they need many simplifying assumptions
to be applied to the forecasting of a lava flow, due to both the
complexity of the phenomenon and computational problems.
On the other hand, probabilistic models often contain only few
physical assumptions, and in most cases assume the major role
is played by topography. Concerning deterministic models, the
development of algorithms for parallel computers seems to be the
way to drastically speed up the computation.
Finally, we expect new algorithms, for example those based
on the Lattice Boltzmann technique, could contribute to the suc-
cessful modeling of these complex processes.

Computational modeling of lava flows: A review
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We are grateful to A. Neri for his helpful comments.
REFERENCES CITED
Barberi, F., and Villari, L., 1994, Volcano monitoring and civil protection
problems during the 1991–1993 Etna eruption: Acta Vulcanologica, v. 4,
p. 157–165.
Barberi, F., Caruso, P., Macedonio, G., Pareschi, M., and Rosi, M., 1992a,
Reconstruction and numerical simulation of the lahar of the 1877 eruption
of Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador): Acta Vulcanologica, v. 2, p. 35–44.
Barberi, F., Macedonio, G., Pareschi, M., and Santacroce, R., 1992b, Lava haz-
ard assessment at Mt. Etna: The case of 1991–1992 eruption: European
Geophysical Union, XVII General Assembly, University of Edinburgh,
also on Annales Geophysicae Supplement no. 1 to v. 10, Part 1, p. C107.
Barberi, F., Carapezza, M., Valenza, M., and Villari, L., 1993, The control of
lava flow during the 1991–1992 eruption of Mt. Etna: Journal of Vol-
canology and Geothermal Research, v. 56, p. 1–34, doi: 10.1016/0377-
0273(93)90048-V.
Barca, D., Crisci, G., Di Gregorio, S., and Nicoletta, F., 1987, Lava flow simu-
lation by cellular automata: Pantelleria’s examples, in Proceedings, Inter-
national Applied Modelling and Simulation: Cairo, Egypt, International
Association of Science and Technology for Development (IASTED),
v. 4A, p. 9–15.
Barca, D., Crisci, G., Di Gregorio, S., Marabini, S., and Nicoletta, F., 1988,
Nuovo modello cellulare per flussi lavici: Colate di Pantelleria: Bollettino
del Gruppo Nazionale per la Vulcanologia: Roma, Italy, Consiglio Nazio-
nale delle Ricerche, p. 41–51.
Barca, D., Crisci, G., Di Gregorio, S., and Nicoletta, F., 1993, Cellular automata
method for modelling lava flows: Simulation of the 1986–1987 eruption,
Mount Etna, Sicily, in Kilburn, C., and Luongo, G., eds., Active lavas:
Monitoring and modeling: London, University College of London Press,
p. 291–309.
Burguete, J., Garcia-Navarro, P., and Aliod, R., 2002, Numerical simulation of
runoff from extreme rainfall events in a mountain water catchment: Natu-
ral Hazards and Earth System Sciences, v. 2, p. 109–117.
Cannataro, M., Di Gregorio, S., Rongo, R., Spataro, W., Spezzano, S., and
Talia, D., 1995, A parallel cellular automata environment on multicom-
puters for modeling and simulation: Parallel Computing, v. 21, no. 5,
p. 803–824, doi: 10.1016/0167-8191(94)00099-V.
Chester, D., Duncan, A., Guest, J., and Kilburn, C., 1985, Mount Etna: The
anatomy of a volcano: London, Chapman and Hall Publications, 404 p.
Costa, A., and Macedonio, G., 2002, Nonlinear phenomena in fluids with tempera-
ture-dependent viscosity: An hysteresis model for magma flow in conduits:
Geophysical Research Letters, v. 29, no. 10, doi: 10.1029/2001GL01449.
Costa, A., and Macedonio, G., 2003, Viscous heating in fluids with tempera-
ture-dependent viscosity: Implications for magma flows: Nonlinear Pro-
cesses in Geophysics, v. 10, no. 6, p. 545–555.
Costa, A., and Macedonio, G., 2005, Numerical simulation of lava flows
based on depth-averaged equations: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 32,
L05304, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021817.
Crisci, G., Di Gregorio, S., Pindaro, O., and Ranieri, G., 1986, Lava flow simu-
lation by a discrete cellular model: First implementation: International
Journal of Modelling and Simulation, v. 6, p. 137–140.
Crisci, G., Di Gregorio, S., Rongo, R., Scarpelli, M., Spataro, W., and Calvari,
S., 2003, Revisiting the 1669 Etnean eruptive crisis using a cellular
automata model and implications for volcanic hazard in the Catania area:
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, v. 123, p. 211–230,
doi: 10.1016/S0377-0273(03)00037-4.
Crisci, G., Rongo, R., Di Gregorio, S., and Spataro, W., 2004, The simula-
tion model SCIARA: The 1991 and 2001 lava flows at Etna: Journal of
Volcanology and Geothermal Research, v. 132, p. 253–267, doi: 10.1016/
S0377-0273(03)00349-4.
Crisp, J., and Baloga, S., 1990, A model for lava flows with two thermal compo-
nents: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 95, p. 1255–1270.
D’Auria, L., Costa, A., and Macedonio, G., 2005, Numerical simulation of
lava flows based on Lattice Boltzmann technique, II General Assembly:
Vienna, Austria, European Geophysical Union Geophysical Research
Abstract, v. 7, 02711.
spe396-14 2nd pages
217
Di Gregorio, S., and Serra, R., 1999, An empirical method for modelling and
simulating some complex macroscopic phenomena by cellular automata:
Future Generation Computer Systems, v. 16, p. 259–271, doi: 10.1016/
S0167-739X(99)00051-5.
Dobran, F., and Macedonio, G., 1992, Lava modeling contributions of the
Volcanic Simulation Group during the 1991–1992 eruption of Mt. Etna:
Giardini, Pisa, Italy, Volcanic Simulation Group Report 92-7, Gruppo
Nazionale per la Vulcanologia (GNV) Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
(CNR), p. 28.
Dobran, F., Barberi, F., and Casarosa, C., 1990, Modeling of volcanological
processes and simulation of volcanic eruptions: Giardini, Pisa, Italy, Vol-
canic Simulation Group Report 90-1, Gruppo Nazionale per la Vulcanolo-
gia (GNV) Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), p. 28.
Dragoni, M., Bonafede, M., and Boschi, E., 1986, Downslope flow models
of a Bingham liquid: Implications for lava flows: Journal of Volcanol-
ogy and Geothermal Research, v. 30, p. 305–325, doi: 10.1016/0377-
0273(86)90059-4.
Favalli, M., Pareschi, M., Neri, A., and Isola, I., 2005, Forecasting lava flow
paths by a stochastic approach: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 32,
L03305, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021718.
Fujita, E., Hidaka, M., Umino, S., and Goto, A., 2004, Lava flow simulation
code: LavaSIM by VTFS-project, in Western Pacific Geophysical Meeting
Supplement [abs.]: Eos (Transactions, American Geophysical Union), 444,
v. 85(28).
Griffiths, R., 2000, The dynamics of lava flows: Annual Review of Fluid
Mechanics, v. 32, p. 477–518, doi: 10.1146/annurev.fluid.32.1.477.
Guest, J., and Murray, J., 1979, An analysis of hazard from the Mount Etna Vol-
cano: Journal of the Geological Society of London, v. 136, p. 347–354.
Harris, A., and Rowland, S., 2001, FLOWGO: A kinematic thermo-rheologi-
cal model for lava flowing in a channel: Bulletin of Volcanology, v. 63,
p. 20–44, doi: 10.1007/s004450000120.
Heinrich, P., Piatanesi, A., and Hébert, H., 2001, Numerical modelling of
tsunami generation and propagation from submarine slumps: The 1998
Papua New Guinea event: Geophysical Journal International, v. 145,
p. 97–111, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2001.00336.x.
Hess, P., 1980, Polymerization model for silicate melts, in Hargraves, R., ed.,
Physics of magmatic processes: Princeton, New Jersey, Princeton Univer-
sity Press, p. 3–48.
Hidaka, M., and Ujita, H., 2001, Verification for flow analysis capability in the
model of three-dimensional natural convection with simultaneous spread-
ing, melting and solidification for debris coolability analysis module in
the severe accident analysis code ’SAMPSON’, (I): Journal of Nuclear
Science and Technology, v. 38, no. 9, p. 745–756.
Hidaka, M., Sato, N., and Ujita, H., 2002, Verification for flow analysis capabil-
ity in the model of three-dimensional natural convection with simultane-
ous spreading, melting and solidification for debris coolability analysis
module in the severe accident analysis code ’SAMPSON’, (II): Journal of
Nuclear Science and Technology, v. 39, no. 5, p. 520–530.
Hulme, G., 1974, The interpretation of lava flow morphology: Geophysical
Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, v. 39, p. 361–383.
Ishihara, K., Iguchi, M., and Kamo, K., 1988, Numerical simulation of lava
flows at Sakurajima, in Proceedings, International Conference on Volca-
noes, Kagoshima, Japan: Kagoshima, Kagoshima Prefectural Government,
p. 475–478.
Ishihara, K., Iguchi, M., and Kamo, K., 1989, Numerical simulation of lava
flows on some volcanoes in Japan, in Fink, J., ed., Lava flows and domes:
New York, Springer-Verlag, p. 174–207.
Keszthelyi, L., and Self, S., 1998, Some physical requirements for the emplace-
ment of long basaltic lava flows: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 103,
no. B11, p. 27,447–27,464, doi: 10.1029/98JB00606.
LeVeque, R., 1997, Wave propagation algorithms for multidimensional hyper-
bolic system: Journal of Computational Physics, v. 131, p. 327–353, doi:
10.1006/jcph.1996.5603.
LeVeque, R., 2002, Finite volume methods for hyperbolic problems: Cam-
bridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 578 p.
Macedonio, G., and Longo, A., 1999, Lava flow in a channel with a bifurcation:
Physics and Chemistry of The Earth, v. 24, p. 953–956.
Macedonio, G., Pareschi, M., and Santacroce, R., 1990, A simple model for
lava hazard assessment: Mount Etna, in Proceedings: Mainz, Germany,
International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s
Interior (IAVCEI).

218 A. Costa and G. Macedonio
Miyamoto, H., and Sasaki, S., 1997, Simulating lava flows by an improved
cellular automata method: Computers & Geosciences, v. 23, no. 3,
p. 283–292, doi: 10.1016/S0098-3004(96)00089-1.
Shah, Y., and Pearson, J., 1974, Stability of non-isothermal flow in chan-
nels. III, Temperature-dependent power-law fluids with heat generation:
Chemical Engineering Science, v. 29, p. 1485–1493, doi: 10.1016/0009-
2509(74)80173-9.
Villari, L., Rasà, R., and Caccamo, A., 1988, Volcanic hazard at Mt. Etna
(Sicily, Italy): Some insight from the geostructural pattern constraining
flank eruptions, in Proceedings, International Conference on Volcanoes,
Kagoshima, Japan: Kagoshima, Kagoshima Prefectural Government,
p. 491–494.
spe396-14 2nd pages
Wadge, G., Young, P., and McKendrick, I., 1994, Mapping lava flow hazard
using computer simulation: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 99,
no. B1, p. 489–504, doi: 10.1029/93JB01561.
Wylie, J., and Lister, J., 1998, The stability of straining flow with surface cool-
ing and temperature-dependent viscosity: Journal of Fluid Mechanics,
v. 365, p. 369–381, doi: 10.1017/S0022112098001505.
Young, P., and Wadge, G., 1990, FLOWFRONT: Simulation of lava flow:
Computers & Geosciences, v. 16, p. 1171–1191, doi: 10.1016/0098-
3004(90)90055-X.
MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED BY THE SOCIETY 19 APRIL 2005
Printed in the USA