November 9, 2006

2006 Election Results Analysis: A First Cut

The people have spoken -- or at least the (according to AP) roughly 40% of voting age
citizens who voted have spoken. The results of 435 elections for House seats and 33
elections for Senate seats have handed control of both chambers to the Democrats come
January, for the first time since 1994. Democrats picked up 6 seats in the Senate, and
more than 30 seats in the House (the exact number remaining unclear due to several close
elections that remain undecided). Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) will be Speaker of the House,
Harry Reid (D-NV) will be Majority Leader in the Senate. What does it all mean for the
international development and humanitarian community? Let's start with a look at the
committees. Tables at the end of this document list all foreign relations authorizing and
appropriating committee members and their status. What follows is a summary review
and discussion.

Senator Foreign Relations Committee

SFRC leadership has given no indication they're going anywhere. Barring unforeseen
shifts (which do sometimes happen) Senator Lugar (R-IN) and Senator Biden (D-DE) are
likely to stay on the committee, with Biden as Chair and Lugar as ranking minority
member. The Committee loses three members: Senator Sarbanes to retirement, and
Senator Chafee and Senator Allen to losses. The loss of Senators Sarbanes and Chafee,
reliable allies of our community, will be particularly felt.

Senate Appropriations State/Foreign Operations Subcommittee

Appropriations subcommittee leadership on the Democratic side is unlikely to change:
current ranking member Senator Leahy has given no indication that he would move
anywhere else and is expected to assume the Chairmanship of the Subcommittee. On the
Republican side, on the other hand, things may change, given current Chair Senator
McConnell's expected ascent to the Senate Republican leader position (with current
leader Senator Frist retiring). While we don't know for sure, certainly there is reason to
expect that a Minority Leader McConnell might relinquish his subcommittee slot.
Possible successors – next in line in the seniority rankings currently – are Senator Specter
(R-PA) and Senator Gregg (R-NH). The Subcommittee loses Senator Mike DeWine (R-
OH), who lost his reelection bid. Senator DeWine was considered a key champion to
many in our community.

Senate Appropriations Full Committee

Leadership of the full Appropriations Committee will likely remain unchanged aside
from the transfer of the Chair's gavel: Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV) will assume the
Chair, while Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) will be ranking Republican.

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House International Relations Committee
With the Democrats taking control, current ranking Democrat Tom Lantos (CA) is in line
to assume the Chair of HIRC. Rep. Lantos's strong interest in the work of the committee
gives no reason to suspect he could be lured elsewhere, so barring outside intervention –
which seems unlikely, rumors to the contrary notwithstanding – he is expected to take the
gavel. On the Republican side things will change, with current Chair Henry Hyde (IL)
retiring, and second-ranking Republican on the committee Jim Leach (IA) going down to
defeat. Next in line in seniority is Christopher Smith of NJ followed by Dan Burton of
IN, but House Republicans don't used seniority alone to choose their leaders, so rank may
not be decisive. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL), who will be 4th ranking in seniority, has
contested the Republican committee leadership position in the past, and may try again.
Who will end up as the Republican leader on HIRC will likely depend on the outcome of
overall Republican leadership elections and on any subsequent committee shuffling that
may occur. Those leadership elections have reportedly been pushed back to Dec. 4, so
the picture for the 110th will remain unclear for some time. Hyde and Leach were two
more strong allies for our community, as was Sherrod Brown (OH), who won a Senate
seat, so their departure will be felt and their replacements of particular interest. Retiring
members Katherine Harris (R-FL) and Mark Green (R-WI) will also leave vacant seats
on the Committee.

House Appropriations Foreign Operations Subcommittee

Democrat Nita Lowey (NY) is in line to assume the subcommittee Chair in January,
barring any moves elsewhere (such as the Labor–HHS subcommittee?), with Jesse
Jackson Jr. (IL) (possibly considering a run for Chicago mayor) and Carolyn Kirkpatrick
(MI) next in line on the Democratic side. Departures here at this point are all on the
Republican side, with the most important being the retirement of Jim Kolbe. Kolbe is
another champion of the poor who will be missed. Also absent on the Republican side
will be Don Sherwood of PA and John Sweeney of NY. Joe Knollenberg (MI) and Mark
Kirk (IL) are at the top of the seniority line for Republicans, although again, that alone
may not determine the Republican leader.

House Appropriations Full Committee

As in the Senate, leadership of the full Appropriations Committee will likely remain the
same, with the gavel moving from the current Chair, Jerry Lewis (R-CA) to the current
ranking Democrat, David Obey (WI).

Discussion
What is the upshot? There is a temptation to assume that Democrats are more
internationalist and therefore more willing to invest in humanitarian and development
work overseas, and based on that assumption to celebrate the Democratic ascendance to
power as a good thing for the InterAction community and the work we care about.
Certainly the ascension to chairmanships of Senators Leahy and Biden and
Represenatives Lowey and Lantos would seem to bode well.

A couple of arguments can be made to temper that optimism, however. First, a number of
key champions for investing in the world's poor were on the Republican side and have

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now been lost to retirement or defeat at the polls: Hyde, Kolbe, Leach, DeWine, and
Santorum come to mind. Secondly, this election will bring into Congress a number of
more moderate Democrats. Whether "moderate" will in these cases translate into "less
internationalist" remains to be seen. The bottom line of these two arguments is that there
is even less reason than ever to think that support for foreign assistance and development
work will fall strictly along party lines.

A third argument concerns the broader landscape. The new Congress will face a tough
fiscal environment, with considerable domestic spending pressures and the continued
drain of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Leadership will be looking for places to cut
spending, and foreign assistance will provide a tempting target. Supportive leadership on
our committees may make only so much difference in such an environment. Ultimately,
then, perhaps only cautious optimism is in order.

The final dispensation of the FY07 spending bills, along with the supplemental
appropriations bill expected in February, will provide initial indicators of the priorities of
the 110th Congress. As caucus leadership posts, committee leadership posts, and
committee memberships are decided, we will keep you updated and provide further
analysis. Stay tuned.

Tables
The following tables list current membership of foreign relations authorizing and
appropriating committees on each side, in order of seniority, with their status post-
November 7. Changes are in bold italics.

Senate Appropriations Committee

Thad Cochran (R-Mississippi), Chairman Not up
Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia), Ranking Member Won

Senate Appropriations
Subcommittee on State, Foreign
Operations, and Related Programs
Republicans
Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Chairman Not up
Arlen Specter (Pennsylvania) Not up
Judd Gregg (New Hampshire) Not up
Richard Shelby (Alabama) Not up
Robert Bennett (Utah) Not up
Kit Bond (Missouri) Not up
R. Michael DeWine (Ohio) Lost
Ted Stevens (Alaska) Not up

Democrats
Patrick Leahy (Vermont), Ranking Member Not up

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Daniel Inouye (Hawaii) Not up
Tom Harkin (Iowa) Not up
Barbara Mikulski (Maryland) Not up
Richard Durbin (Illinois) Not up
Tim Johnson (South Dakota) Not up
Mary Landrieu (Louisiana) Not up
Robert Byrd (West Virginia) Won

Senate Foreign Relations

Committee
Republicans
Richard Lugar (Indiana), Chairman Unopposed
Chuck Hagel (Nebraska) Not up
Lincoln Chafee (Rhode Island) Lost
George Allen (Virginia) Loss
Norm Coleman (Minnesota) Not up
George Voinovich (Ohio) Not up
Lamar Alexander (Tennessee) Not up
John E. Sununu (New Hampshire) Not up
Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) Not up
Mel Martinez (Florida) Not up

Democrats
Joseph R. Biden, Jr. (Delaware), Ranking Not up
Member
Paul Sarbanes (Maryland) Retiring
Christopher Dodd (Connecticut) Not up
John Kerry (Massachusetts) Not up
Russ Feingold (Wisconsin) Not up
Barbara Boxer (California) Not up
Bill Nelson (Florida) Won
Barack Obama (Illinois) Not up

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House Appropriations Committee
Jerry Lewis, California 41st (R - Chairman) Won
David R. Obey, Wisconsin 7th (D - Ranking Won
Member)

House Appropriations
Subcommittee on Foreign
Operations, Export Financing and
Related Programs
Republicans
Jim Kolbe, Arizona 8th (Chairman) Retiring
Joe Knollenberg, Michigan 9th Won
Mark Steven Kirk, Illinois 10th Won
Ander Crenshaw, Florida 4th Won
Don Sherwood, Pennsylvania 10th (Vice Chair) Lost
John Sweeney, New York 20th Lost
Dennis R. Rehberg, Montana At Large Won
John Carter, Texas 31st Won

Democrats
Nita M. Lowey, New York 18th (Ranking Won
Member)
Jesse L. Jackson, Jr., Illinois 2nd Won
Carolyn C. Kilpatrick, Michigan 13th Unopposed
Steven R. Rothman, New Jersey 9th Won
Chaka Fattah, PA Won

House International Relations

Committee
Republicans
Henry Hyde, Chairman Illinois 6th Retiring
James Albert Smith Leach Iowa 2nd Lost
Christopher Smith, Vice Chair, New Jersey 4th Won
Dan Burton Indiana5th Won
Elton Gallegly California 24th Won
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Florida 18th Won
Dana Rohrabacher California 46th Won
Edward Royce California 40th Won
Peter King New York 3rd Won
Steve Chabot Ohio 1st Won
Thomas Tancredo Colorado 6th Won

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Ron Paul Texas 14th Won
Darrell Issa California 49th Won
Jeff Flake Arizona 6th Won
Jo Ann Davis Virginia 1st Won
Mark Green Wisconsin 8th Retiring
Jerry Weller Illinois 11th Won
Mike Pence Indiana 6th Won
Thaddeus McCotter Michigan 11th Won
Katherine Harris Florida 13th Retiring
Joe Wilson South Carolina 2nd Won
John Boozman Arkansas 3rd Won
J. Gresham Barrett South Carolina 3rd Won
Connie Mack Florida 14th Won
Jeff Fortenberry Nebraska 1st Won
Mike McCaul Texas 10th Won
Ted Poe Texas 2nd Won

Democrats
Tom Lantos, Ranking member California 27th Won
Howard Berman California 28th Won
Gary Ackerman New York 5th Unopposed
Eni Faleomavaega American Samoa, Not Voting Unopposed
Donald Payne New Jersey 20th Unopposed
Sherrod Brown Ohio 13th Retiring (won Senate race)
Brad Sherman California 27th Won
Robert Wexler Florida19th Unopposed
Eliot Engel New York 17th Won
William Delahunt Massachusetts 10th Won
Gregory Meeks New York 6th Unopposed
Joseph Crowley New York 7th Won
Earl Blumenauer Oregon 3rd Won
Shelley Berkley Nevada 1st Won
Grace Napolitano California 38th Won
Adam Schiff California 29th Won
Diane Watson California 33rd Unopposed
Adam Smith Washington 9th Won
Betty McCollum Minnesota 4th Won
Ben Chandler Kentucky 6th Won
Dennis Cardoza California 18th Won
Russ Carnahan Missouri 3rd Won

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