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2 May 2013 Singapore Daily Venture Corp: Just Cant Catch A Break; Cut to Sell, TP $6.70 VMS SP | Mkt Cap USD1.8b | ADTV USD3.2m
Cut to SELL from Buy with TP slashed to SGD6.70. Results were below expectations with net profit down 21% YoY and more of the same can be expected in 2Q13. Visibility is low until 2H13 as economic conditions are turning against Venture again, and new customer contributions are taking longer than expected to ramp. Venture is still guiding for full year growth but it is increasingly difficult to see how they will pull it off. There are just too many macroeconomic uncertainties and the company has been too slow in taking the needed actions for a long-awaited turnaround. To cap it off, capex will shoot up this year, and with a weak earnings outlook, dividends could be under pressure as well. We downgrade the stock to SELL (TP SGD6.70) ahead of the FY12 final dividend payout. Relook below SGD7.00.
Click here for full report VMS SP | Technology
Consensus (12 mths)
$8.32
6 4 1
Source: Bloomberg
Bumitama Agri: Sweet Young Trees; Initiate at Buy, TP $1.24 BAL SP | Mkt Cap USD1.4b | ADTV USD0.8m
Initiate coverage with a BUY and SGD1.24 TP on 16x FY14 PER, implying just 0.9x PEG. Underappreciated and relatively undiscovered, Bumitama Agris (BAL) value will rise organically as its young trees mature. BAL has figures that can make heads turn. It is the fastestgrowing plantation company in our coverage universe, having planted an average of ~9,700 ha of nucleus area p.a. over the past nine years. Sizeable (nucleus planted area of 101,182 ha) with young trees (~5 years old) and robust growth (3-year forward FFB output CAGR of 21%), BAL has it all. It was also the third most profitable planter in our stock universe in 2012.
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gyap@maybank-ke.com.sg
BAL SP | Plantation
($) 1.20 Vol ('000) 30000 25000 1.10 20000 1.00 15000
$1.01
0.90
10000 5000
5 3 0
0.80 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 May-13
Source: Bloomberg
ct.ong@maybank-ib.com
Others Ho Bee Investment: Overseas Expansion Eyed; Buy TP $2.66 HOBEE SP | Mkt Cap USD1.2b | ADTV USD1.1m
Excluding divestment gains, Ho Bees 1Q13 core PATMI of SGD18m (+29% YoY, -66% QoQ) was in line with expectations. We remain sanguine on Ho Bees strong cash position and cheap valuations. Maintain BUY. With limited acquisition opportunities in Singapore, Ho Bee intends to cast its eyes overseas. It has already acquired three parcels in Gold Coast, Australia, at near distressed prices. These site could potentially add another 11 cts/share to our RNAV estimate. We relooked at our previously conservative assumptions for Ho Bees investment properties and have raised our target price to SGD2.66, pegged to a 30% discount to RNAV. Positive deployment of its cash hoard and further leasing updates at The Metropolis will be near-term catalysts.
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OCBC: NIMs to Stabilise in Subsequent Quarters; Hold, TP $11.30 OCBC SP | Mkt Cap USD30.2b | ADTV USD29.6m
OCBCs 1Q13 core net profit of SGD696m (+5% QoQ, -12% YoY) was slightly below our expectations on lower-thanexpected NIMs, but in line with consensus. Given expectations of stable NIMs over the next few quarters though, our forecasts are maintained and our TP is raised to SGD11.30 from SGD10.50, pegging on a higher P/BV multiple of 1.5x (1.4x previously), taking valuations up to the long-term mean for the group and supported by ROEs of about 11.9% for 2013. HOLD prefer DBS for its more attractive valuations 2013: PER 11.5x, P/BV 1.2x, ROAE: 10.6%, yield: 3.4%) and the strong growth in its non-traditional income channels.
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desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com
wilsonliew@maybank-ke.com.sg
Location SP SP SP
Corporate Roadshows Corp Day: China Baby Boom MSCI Lunch: Benchmarking & Rebalancing Blackrock ETF Teach In
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SINGAPORE DAILY
Results Calendar
MONDAY 29-Apr-13 Company Ascendas Hospitality Trust Aztech Group Broadway Industrial Fragrance Group Frasers Commercial Trust Global Premium Hotels Indofood Agri Resources Raffles Medical Group World Precision Machinery 06-May -13 Company Global Investments Singapore Post Period 1Q FY13 1Q 1Q SMRT Tuan Sing Holdings United 1Q Overseas Insurance 1Q Venture Corp 07-May -13 Company OSIM International Perennial China Retail Trust ST Engineering Period 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 08-May -13 Company ARA Asset Management ASL Marine Ellipsiz Far East Hospitality Trust Hi-P International Sembcorp Industries WBL Corporation Wilmar International 1Q 1Q 2Q 1Q 1Q Period 1Q 3Q 3Q 09-May -13 Company DMX Technologies Ezion Holdings Parkson Retail Asia Parkway Life REIT StarHub Period 1Q 1Q 3Q 10-May -13 Company Amtek Engineering Fraser & Neave Hotel Royal Period 3Q 2Q 1Q 1Q FY13 1Q 2Q OKP Holdings 1Q 1Q Ho Bee Investment Hutchison Port Holdings Trust OCBC 1Q Genting Singapore Lippo Malls 1Q Indonesia Retail Trust 1Q United Overseas Bank 1Q Sembcorp Marine 1Q 1Q Roxy-Pacific 1Q 1Q FY13 Del Monte 1Q LABOUR DAY DBS Group 1Q Period TUESDAY 30-Apr-13 Company Period W EDNESDAY 01-May -13 Company Period THURSDAY 02-May -13 Company Period FRIDAY 03-May -13 Company Cityspring Infrastructure Trust Cosco 1Q 1Q Period
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2 May 2013
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SINGAPORE DAILY
2 May 2013
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SINGAPORE DAILY
DISCLOSURES
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Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 2 May 2013, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. As of 2 May 2013, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analysts compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
2 May 2013
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