000000000001011437

Innovative Methods for Managing Aged Transformer Fleets
Technical Report
Effective December 6, 2006, this report has been made publicly available in accordance with Section 734.3(b)(3) and published in accordance with Section 734.7 of the U.S. Export Administration Regulations. As a result of this publication, this report is subject to only copyright protection and does not require any license agreement from EPRI. This notice supersedes the export control restrictions and any proprietary licensed material notices embedded in the document prior to publication.
Innovative Methodologies for Managing Aged Transformer Fleets

1011437
Final Report, February 2005
Cosponsor Kansas City Power & Light 1331 N. Jackson Kansas City, MO 64120-1074
EPRI Project Manager B. Ward
EPRI 3412 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, California 94304 PO Box 10412, Palo Alto, California 94303 USA 800.313.3774 650.855.2121 askepri@epri.com www.epri.com
DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITIES

THIS DOCUMENT WAS PREPARED BY THE ORGANIZATION(S) NAMED BELOW AS AN ACCOUNT OF WORK SPONSORED OR COSPONSORED BY THE ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC. (EPRI). NEITHER EPRI, ANY MEMBER OF EPRI, ANY COSPONSOR, THE ORGANIZATION(S) BELOW, NOR ANY PERSON ACTING ON BEHALF OF ANY OF THEM: (A) MAKES ANY WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION WHATSOEVER, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, (I) WITH RESPECT TO THE USE OF ANY INFORMATION, APPARATUS, METHOD, PROCESS, OR SIMILAR ITEM DISCLOSED IN THIS DOCUMENT, INCLUDING MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OR (II) THAT SUCH USE DOES NOT INFRINGE ON OR INTERFERE WITH PRIVATELY OWNED RIGHTS, INCLUDING ANY PARTY'S INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, OR (III) THAT THIS DOCUMENT IS SUITABLE TO ANY PARTICULAR USER'S CIRCUMSTANCE; OR (B) ASSUMES RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING ANY CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, EVEN IF EPRI OR ANY EPRI REPRESENTATIVE HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES) RESULTING FROM YOUR SELECTION OR USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ANY INFORMATION, APPARATUS, METHOD, PROCESS, OR SIMILAR ITEM DISCLOSED IN THIS DOCUMENT. ORGANIZATION(S) THAT PREPARED THIS DOCUMENT PowerNex Associates Inc.
ORDERING INFORMATION
Requests for copies of this report should be directed to EPRI Orders and Conferences, 1355 Willow Way, Suite 278, Concord, CA 94520, (800) 313-3774, press 2 or internally x5379, (925) 609-9169, (925) 609-1310 (fax). Electric Power Research Institute and EPRI are registered service marks of the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. EPRI. ELECTRIFY THE WORLD is a service mark of the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. Copyright 2005 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
CITATIONS
This report was prepared by PowerNex Associates Inc. 27 Ashgrove Place Toronto, Ontario M3B 2Y9 Canada Principal Investigators G. L. Ford M. Vainberg This report describes research sponsored by EPRI and Kansas City Power & Light. The report is a corporate document that should be cited in the literature in the following manner: Innovative Methodologies for Managing Aged Transformer Fleets, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA, and Kansas City Power & Light, Kansas City, MO: 2005. 1011437.
iii
PRODUCT DESCRIPTION
The subject of operating transformers approaching or beyond typically assumed design lives is increasingly important for many utilities. Developing and justifying a repair / refurbish / replace asset management strategy for such populations and the rational basis for the strategy has proven critical. Because of the skewed demographic distributions common in many utilities and the fact that significant numbers of transformers are at the back end of the bathtub curve, existing methods are not adequate for the effective management of the boomer generation of aging transformers. EPRI has launched this project to help managers deal with the problem of aged transformer populations through innovative methods to determine practical investment strategies. Results & Findings This report includes the following: 1) a survey of utility practices and perceived needs, 2) identification of important asset management business case scenarios of interest to utility decision makers, 3) assessment of the quality and availability of data relevant to transformer fleet management problems through detailed work with a host utility, and 4) preliminary assessment and formulation of new method concepts that can be used to provide a quantitative and rigorous basis for these types of business case studies. Results show adequate industry and utility data are available and that these data can be used innovatively to produce significantly improved asset management strategies. Challenges & Objectives While asset managers using conventional approaches are capable of developing and executing effective maintenance and capital programs, many are experiencing greater difficulty in gaining senior executive and regulatory approval for implementation of more comprehensive programs to address the large numbers of aging assets. Budgets are routinely cut, and asset managers with technical backgrounds find it increasingly difficult to satisfy the financial analysis and business case requirements expected by senior decision-makers. This report describes several innovative methods formulated for the types of scenarios and business case studies that utility asset managers typically need to analyze. These methods address: Improved spares projection based on fleet condition Forward-looking failure rate projection for key transformer populations More versus less proactive transformer replacement The efficacy of reconditioning transformer insulation systems Tradeoffs in rating and loading capability versus maintenance Analysis of solution options for generic transformer failures
This project has demonstrated that advanced decision-making methods are practical for most utilities in terms of the quality and extent of data required, and feasible in terms of the development of generic and specialized mathematical methods. Applications, Values & Use The promising results of this preliminary project need to be expanded through broadening its range of application and through extending and deepening the analysis. Specific recommendations include: Broaden the range of applicability through work with additional EPRI host utilities to 1) widen and confirm the extent of asset manager decision requirements, and 2) confirm the availability and quality of data in other utility business and regulatory environments. Extend the formulation of methods described in this report by working with host utilities to implement prototype production methods that will produce analyses for selected business cases.
EPRI Perspective Building on the work of EPRIs Asset Management Toolkit project (described in EPRI report 1008550, Guidelines for Power Delivery Asset Management), the goal of this project is to assess and quantify the effects of aging on transformer populations, understand risks and replacement needs, and structure a budget framework for funding a selected intervention approach. Participating companies will be able to manage aging transformer assets more effectively based on assessment of risks associated with their specific transformer population demographics and conditions. As a result, funding companies can improve asset utilization and manage the business risk of failures through better understanding and quantification of likely failure rates and development of strategies tailored for their specific populations of transformers. The project will also facilitate informed decision-making regarding transformer life-cycle management including procurement, maintenance, and replacement strategies based on the funding companys unique operating, business, and regulatory requirements and constraints. Approach Address primary concerns, issues, and utility needs for managing aged transformer fleets. Learn what data are generally available and how they can be best utilized for short- and longterm management of transformer populations. Formulate preliminary high-level models for transformer fleet management applications.
All of these objectives were met though effective work with a host utility and formulation of innovative methods. Keywords Transformers Fleet Management Strategy Utility Asset Management Aging Transformer Population Hazard Rate Asset Decision-Making vi
ABSTRACT
Operating transformers at or beyond typically assumed economic lives, is an increasingly important subject for many utilities. Developing and justifying a repair/refurbish/replace management strategy for such populations and the rational basis for it, is a critical need. Because of the adverse demographic distributions common in many utilities and the fact that significant numbers of transformers are at the back end of the bathtub curve, existing methods are not adequate for the effective management of the boomer generation of aging transformers. As a result, EPRI launched this project to help managers deal with the problem of populations of aged transformers through innovative methodologies to determine practical transformer investment strategies. This report documents the early stages of the project, which includes a survey of utility practices and perceived needs, identification of important asset management business case scenarios of interest to utility decision makers, assessment of the quality and availability of data relevant to these types of problems through detailed work with a host utility, and preliminary assessment and formulation of new methodology concepts that can be used to provide a quantitative and rigorous basis for these types of business case studies. Results to date indicate that adequate industry and utility data are available and that these data can be used in new and better ways to produce significantly improved asset management strategies.
vii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The objectives of this project were to: address primary concerns, issues and utility needs for managing aged transformer fleets learn what data are generally available and how it can be utilized best for short and longer term transformer fleet management formulate preliminary high-level models for transformer fleet management applications
Utility interests and needs were sampled through a focused survey of leading utility managers. The results indicated that over two thirds of the surveyed managers are concerned with the adverse demographics of the transformer fleets that they operate. In view of these concerns a significant proportion of utilities are beginning to proactively replace at least some of their transformers a practice which was almost unheard of just a few years ago. Note however, that while such replacement decisions are being made, only equipment that is either too costly to maintain and/or has the highest risk associated with failure is usually considered for proactive replacement. Managers are increasingly using (two thirds of respondents) on-line diagnostic monitoring to assess transformer condition. The survey confirmed that utilities are universally using historic failure rate data to project future failure rates. This practice is increasingly in doubt as transformer populations are clearly not demographically stable and as well, significant proportions of these populations are at the back end of the bathtub curve. As a result, utility managers are unanimous in their assessment that development of improved methodologies for managing such transformer fleets is necessary. Data availability and quality as a precursor to development of high-level transformer fleet management models was assessed though detailed pilot studies with a host utility and through review of industry data. Typical utility data includes inventory information such as transformer nameplate (manufacturer, date of manufacture, rating etc.), operating data such as loading history and records, and maintenance data such as diagnostic test results. One of the critical needs in development of improved methodologies is valid failure rate data. Results indicate that failure data is typically available to a greater or lesser extent in most utilities. Unfortunately, post mortem investigation of transformer failures is frequently not performed in any detail because of cost, and the need to focus resources on installation of replacement equipment. Nevertheless, experience with the host utility provided failure data that could be sorted by transformer type and location and which was adequate for generic failure modes specific to the utilitys transformer populations. In addition, sources of industry failure rate data were investigated and two consistent sets of industry failure rate data were obtained. These can be applied to calibrate methodologies addressing transformer populations that are aging under normal thermal and chemical environments.
ix
Lastly, several innovative methodologies have been reviewed and formulated for the types of scenarios and business case studies that typical utility asset managers need to analyze. These include (but are not limited to): 1. Improved spares projection based on fleet condition 2. Forward looking failure rate projection 3. More versus less proactive transformer replacement 4. The efficacy of reconditioning transformer insulation systems 5. Tradeoffs in rating and loading capability versus maintenance and 6. Analysis of solution options for generic transformer failures. Significant progress has been made in terms of data acquisition, determining fleet management strategies of leading utilities and in testing of high-level transformer fleet management methodologies as applied to practical business case scenarios. This project has demonstrated that using host utility and available industry data, development of advanced decision-making methodologies is practical for most utilities in terms of the quality and extent of data required, and feasible in terms of the development of generic and specialized mathematical methods.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
PowerNex Associates Inc. wishes to thank Chris Kurtz, William Herrington and Elijah Forney, as well as Mike Lebow and Barry Ward from EPRI for significant contributions to the formulation and success of this project.
xi
CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................1-1 Project Objectives .................................................................................................................1-2 2 REVIEW OF INDUSTRY NEEDS AND EXISTING PRACTICES...........................................2-1 Informal Survey Objectives ...................................................................................................2-1 Informal Survey .....................................................................................................................2-1 Summary of Informal Interviews With Utilities .......................................................................2-5 Ranking ............................................................................................................................2-5 Condition Assessment and Testing / Monitoring ..............................................................2-5 Replacement and Refurbishment .....................................................................................2-6 Spares Policies.................................................................................................................2-6 Failures.............................................................................................................................2-7 Failure Cause Investigations ............................................................................................2-7 Failure Avoidance.............................................................................................................2-7 Data Issues.......................................................................................................................2-7 Information From the Literature and Industry Sources..........................................................2-8 Thermal and Chemical Aging in Transformers .................................................................2-8 Transformer Failure Rates................................................................................................2-9 Asset Management Practice and Methodologies ...........................................................2-10 3 AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY OF DATA MAINTAINED IN TYPICAL UTILITIES ..............3-1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................3-1 Demographics Analysis.........................................................................................................3-1 Analysis of 50 MVA Dual Secondary Winding Transformers ................................................3-5 Loading.............................................................................................................................3-5 Condition Data..................................................................................................................3-7 Criticality ...........................................................................................................................3-8 Failure Data and Analysis.................................................................................................3-8 Summary on Failure Analysis.........................................................................................3-12
xiii
4 METHODOLOGIES FOR FLEET MANAGEMENT: TRANSFORMER FAILURE PROJECTION AND AGING METHODOLOGIES .....................................................................4-1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................4-1 Long-Term Transformer Aging: .............................................................................................4-3 5 SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS..................................................5-1 Summary ...............................................................................................................................5-1 Conclusions...........................................................................................................................5-1 Recommendations ................................................................................................................5-2 6 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................6-1 A SUMMARY OF INTERVIEWS WITH UTILITIES .................................................................. A-1 B DATA ANALYSIS APPLICATIONS MATRIX................................................................. B-1
xiv
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1-1 The Need for Improved Methodologies for Managing Transformer Fleets ...............1-1 Figure 2-1 Responses to Informal Survey .................................................................................2-2 Figure 2-2 Responses to Informal Survey .................................................................................2-2 Figure 2-3 Responses to Informal Survey .................................................................................2-3 Figure 2-4 Responses to Informal Survey .................................................................................2-3 Figure 2-5 Responses to Informal Survey .................................................................................2-4 Figure 2-6 Responses to Informal Survey .................................................................................2-4 Figure 2-7 Bartley Hazard Rate Function ................................................................................2-9 Figure 3-1 Demographics of All Transformers (17 MVA & Above) ............................................3-2 Figure 3-2 Demographics of 50 MVA DSW Transformers .........................................................3-3 Figure 3-3 Demographics of 17-42 MVA Transformers .............................................................3-3 Figure 3-4 Demographics of 30-42 MVA Transformers .............................................................3-4 Figure 3-5 Demographics of 30-42 MVA Transformers .............................................................3-4 Figure 3-6 Typical Daily Load Profile for One of the 50 MVA Units ...........................................3-6 Figure 3-7 Normalized Bus Load Histogram..............................................................................3-6 Figure 3-8 Condition-Based Sorting of 50 MVA Units Based on Results of DGA Testing/Analysis .................................................................................................................3-7 Figure 3-9 Failure Analysis by Substation for 50 MVA DSW Transformers...............................3-9 Figure 3-10 50 MVA DSW Transformer Failures Between 1983 and 2003 .............................3-11 Figure 4-1 Adverse Transformer Fleet Demographics Approaching the Bad End of the Bathtub Curve..................................................................................................................4-2 Figure 4-2 Hazard Rate and Related Statistical Life Expectancy Distribution Functions Obtained From Transformation of the Corresponding Operating Temperature Distribution .........................................................................................................................4-4 Figure 4-3 Basic Methodology in Simplified Form .....................................................................4-5 Figure 4-4 The Effect of Maintaining Insulation System Condition on Life Expectancy .............4-6 Figure 4-5 Refurbishment After 1 Year or 10 Years in a Deteriorated State .............................4-7 Figure 4-6 Asset Management Issues in Solving Unique Transformer Problems .....................4-9
xv
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2-1 Data from CIGRE Study Committee 12 WG 05 .......................................................2-10 Table 3-1 Initial Groupings of the Transformer Fleet .................................................................3-2 Table 3-2 Percentage of Failures Associated With Substations ................................................3-9 Table 3-3 Failure Analysis by Manufacturer (OEM) .................................................................3-10 Table 3-4 Average Age of 50 MVA DSW Transformers as a Function of Time .......................3-11 Table B-1 Typical Available Data and Uses............................................................................. B-1
xvii
INTRODUCTION
Transformer fleet management is an increasingly important subject for many utilities operating populations of transformers that have significant numbers of units at or beyond typically assumed economic lives. Developing and justifying a repair/refurbish/replace management strategy for such populations and the rational basis for it, is a critical need. Because of the adverse demographic distributions common in many utilities and the fact that significant numbers of transformers are at the back end of the bathtub curve, existing methods are not adequate for the effective management of this boomer generation of transformers aging as illustrated in Figure 1-1.
Figure 1-1 The Need for Improved Methodologies for Managing Transformer Fleets
1-1
Introduction
The figure illustrates a typical fleet demographic distribution as it ages over time. The brown colored age bins represent the bins in which failures have occurred and the green bins represent replacements. The hazard rate curve (or Bathtub curve as it is more commonly named) remains constant for a given population; but as can be seen the demographic distribution increasingly overlaps the back end of the curve. The more the overlap between the demographic distribution and the hazard rate curve, the more failures can be expected. In the near-term, asset managers can and are applying diagnostics and monitoring periodically and on-line, to keep track of the condition of critical and problematic units. Through such actions asset managers can rank their population of transformers by condition and make decisions for specific units. But with increasing regulator and shareholder scrutiny, better tools to help managers develop credible asset management strategies and support transformer investment (O&M and capital) are needed. In recognition of these needs, EPRI initiated the project described in this report.
Project Objectives
The objectives of this project are summarized below: to address primary concerns, issues and utility needs for managing aged transformer fleets to assess data availability and quality and its potential for short and longer term transformer fleet management to formulate innovative methodologies for transformer fleet management applications
This project began by sampling utility needs, data availability and quality as a precursor to development of high-level transformer fleet management models though pilot studies with host utilities. The project included the following tasks: 1. Acquire relevant and available data (the data included utility needs analysis, demographics and nameplate data, long and short term ratings of equipment, equipment duties and worst case operational stresses, as well as available equipment failure data) 2. Analyze and document collected data 3. Summarize transformer fleet management practices in leading utilities worldwide 4. Analyze all collected data and information, carry out a statistical data analysis, and formulate innovative methodologies for demographic and failure/end-of-life projections for the pilot utility's fleet of transformers; document results and conclusions. The following chapters describe the results of investigations in all of these tasks.
1-2
REVIEW OF INDUSTRY NEEDS AND EXISTING PRACTICES
To ensure that the project take advantage of all existing relevant information, PowerNex Associates Inc. initiated a review of best management practices for transformer fleets through a focused utility survey and through a search of available papers and reports. As well, a follow-up discussion with asset managers and transformer experts in utilities participating in this project and a few selected utilities known to be active in this area was completed. The following sections describe the findings and results of the utility survey and the search of available literature and information.
Informal Survey Objectives

The objectives of the informal survey were: To identify what is done or being planned in the area of transformer fleet management To identify proven and practical approaches and tools, which should be considered in the development of a Best-In-Class Fleet Transformer Management Plan / Strategy
The scope of the study included transmission transformers rated 17 MVA and above, which included auto and station transformers. Transformer populations and demographics vary widely among even similar sized North American utilities. While some utilities have seen little if any load growth for a number of years, there are others with loads growing at rates of 3% or higher, thus putting substantial pressure on capital budgets to build new facilities, versus maintenance and operating budgets. While confidentiality issues constrain us from revealing participating company information and specifics associated with their data, we believe that the key findings summarized below provide good insight on transformer related practices.
Informal Survey
The intent of the survey questionnaire was to ask questions that could be answered with a minimum of effort based on readily available information, and to get contact information for a transformer specialist in the recipients organization. We used a list of potential utility contacts (received from EPRI) as a starting point to identify key contacts for the informal survey. The survey questionnaire, in the form of an e-mail, was sent to the EPRI Transformer program members, as well as to some additional utilities. Due to confidentiality concerns expressed by the respondents, we are not able to disclose the identities of the utilities, which participated in 2-1
Review of Industry Needs and Existing Practices
this Task. The project team followed up where possible by contacting the designated personnel to engage in a detailed discussion to fill in the necessary additional information. The questions asked and a summary of findings obtained during informal discussions with transformer experts in the participating utilities is presented below and in Appendix A.
Figure 2-1 Responses to Informal Survey
It is perhaps not surprising to note that 2/3 of the utilities feel that within their demographics of Transformer Population Age / Condition are a growing concern.
2-2
The response to the above question is very important, as it demonstrates that a substantial number of utilities are beginning to proactively replace at least some of their transformers a practice which was almost unheard of just a few years ago. Note however, that while such replacement decisions are made, only equipment that is either to costly to maintain, potentially unreliable or has the highest probability of failure with high consequences of failure is considered for proactive replacement.
2-3
These results indicate a significant finding. The assumption that historic rates of failure will continue is only valid if the population of transformers is in the flat portion of the bathtub curve and demographically stable. This finding indicates a strong need for methodologies to better forecast rates of transformer failure, if significant numbers of aged transformers are approaching end of life.
2-4
As indicated in the last figure, all respondents felt that there is a need to improve the Transformer Asset Management processes, which is consistent with the main objective of this EPRI initiative. While the informal survey provided useful general information, further details were obtained through extended teleconference calls with the participating utilities transformer experts. A summary of key findings from discussions with these transformer experts is provided below.
Summary of Informal Interviews With Utilities

This section provides a summary of discussions with transformer experts in the respective utilities that were a follow-up to the survey questionnaire. During these informal discussions it quickly became clear that drivers and constraints among even the limited number of utilities participating in this survey vary greatly. These differences result in a variety of transformer management approaches, which also depend on capital and operating budgets, regulation (rates), customer and shareholder inputs and constraints. The following sections summarize this information by topic: Ranking Many, but not all, carry out an annual ranking assessment to determine their worst units (in terms of condition and criticality). Depending on findings, most utilities carry out either more testing or maintenance, or in the worst-cases initiate a transformer replacement process. Some utilities admitted to having no ranking system at all. These companies are looking to organizations like EPRI for help in setting up such a system, which can be integrated with their existing data and processes. Condition Assessment and Testing / Monitoring While some utilities have robust systems for determining and keeping track of transformer condition, others seem to have little system or none at all. Most utilities carry out standard tests as a proxy for transformer condition, including: DGA usually annually, but varying from 6 months to 3-5 years Doble Power Factor and other tests often every 1 or 2 years Thermovision usually annually Degree of Polymerization (DP) utilities use it only in exceptional cases. One utility recently sampled paper from 150 units and sent it out for DP analysis, however because the sampling procedure was not good enough, the DP analyses were inconclusive. Online DGA monitoring very few utilities fully instrument transformers, as it is costly (could be as high as $100k/unit) and can only be justified for critical units and applications.
2-5
Using standard industry software (like Delta-Xs Transformer Oil Analyst) most utilities trend the DGA data and act on data analysis results (exceptions). The actions may include re-sampling or more frequent sampling of gas-in-oil, transformer inspection (external or under extreme circumstances internal), refurbishment or relocation, and as a last resort replacement. Replacement and Refurbishment Transformer refurbishment activities usually include rebuilding and re-gasketing Load Tap Changers (LTCs). As manufacturing facilities reduce the costs of equipment, incentives to repair transformers seem to be rapidly diminishing. At the same time, some utilities have concerns with certain manufacturing facilities and are willing to pay more for perceived better quality (which is difficult to quantify, as comparative data are not readily available). Spares Policies As financial pressures on utilities are constantly increasing, justifying pure spares is becoming a significant challenge. In situations perceived to be critical, utilities do purchase spare units or enter into spare sharing agreements with neighboring utilities to minimize capital costs and outage times in the event of failures. For utilities with a substantial load growth, justifying spares is easier, as system expansion and reliability demand ongoing investment. Some utilities replace older transformers with new units and use older units as spares. In jurisdictions where regulators support proactive equipment replacement, utilities again have more incentives and flexibility in justifying buying spares. In the majority of other situations, utilities often have to make do with the available equipment and budgets and some resort to relocating units as replacements, when a failure occurs. Many utilities do not purchase and maintain spares for each class of transformers, as there is usually system redundancy built-in, allowing for at least single contingency failures. Most utilities also have a predetermined process in the event that a critical transformer (because of system location and/or type of customers served) has to be replaced. Most utilities share concerns about long lead times to get new or replacement units and about the quality of equipment manufactured using offshore production. Usually utilities that carry out an internal studies for spare needs, base their spare requirement on historic failure rates for each equipment class. However, continuing to make this assumption will likely lead to an industry-wide systemic underestimation of the numbers of replacement units required and capacity limited manufacturing delays as vintage equipment populations reach end of life.
2-6
Failures In the context of the survey and in general for this project, failure is defined as any event or condition, which requires removal of the transformer from its location and the installation of a replacement. While the subject of transformer failures has been discussed in numerous venues and journals over the many years, the industry does not have an organized public domain database of failures. Issues of confidentiality, liability and proprietary concerns interfere with collecting and sorting comparable data. Failure Cause Investigations Failure mode analysis is typically complex, requires considerable expertise and involves significant cost. Transformer expertise required to properly analyze failures (that may have resulted from long-term strength reduction through electro-chemical aging and complex combinations of mechanical and electrical stresses) is also hard to find nowadays. Therefore, some utilities do little when failures occur, other than to replace the failed unit as quickly as possible with what they perceive is a better one. Discussions with a number of utilities revealed that while some companies diligently analyze every transformer failure, others simply replace the failed equipment. Best-in-Class practices include detailed root cause failure analysis and the maintenance failure and failure rate statistics, so that if more than one unit is affected by a specific cause, action can be taken to limit such failures for the remaining transformer population. Keeping track of industry activities and participating in CIGRE, IEC, EEI, DOBLE and IEEE activities allows companies to keep track of what can go wrong with similar equipment and to take preventive actions to avoid minimize the risk of failures. Failure Avoidance Most utilities do their utmost to avoid in-service failures. As transformers edge closer to end-oflife, utilities tend to continue operation unless there are clear symptoms of impending failure. As this is not an engineering process, failures do occur, with failure rates varying widely for different classes of equipment, depending on manufacturer, vintage, operating and maintenance policies. Discussions with utilities reported failures rates (calculated as a percentage of the whole utility population) as low as 0.2% per year and as high as 13% per year. Data Issues From an operational point of view, most utilities have SCADA systems, which can and often do track data for significant events (like through faults). In many companies system reviews identify follow up actions for effected equipment. These can include DGA, inspection, etc. Issues of data integration are still not fully resolved and most utilities continue to struggle with correlating the operational, maintenance and asset register data needed to make sound asset management decisions.
2-7
Information From the Literature and Industry Sources

Asset managers need to make decisions for the ongoing maintenance of assets; but for aged transformer populations, options for managing the end-of-life for individual units and for the fleet become critical. To be effective, asset managers need to have an understanding of: 1. How equipment and the materials which operate under stress age and at what stage in the aging process their assets are at present 2. What options for maintenance/repair/refurbishment are available and how effective they might be and 3. How to formulate and analyze the data and information to make convincing business cases for senior management and regulatory purposes. The technical and business literature is replete with publications in all of these areas beginning decades ago with data on aging processes, and increasingly in recent years with information on asset management experience relevant to end-of-life decisions. While it is impractical to provide an exhaustive review of such literature, this section of the report summarizes published information most relevant to this project. Thermal and Chemical Aging in Transformers Aging in oil/paper insulation systems has been a topic of research and study for many years going back to the early work of Montsinger and Dakin in the 30s and 40s. Dakins aging model has become an industry standard that has stood the test of time and application. It forms the basis for loading guides of several organizations including ANSI/IEEE standard C57.91 and IEC Publication 354. The model represents the deterioration of insulating paper through thermal aging, oxidation, and hydration. Transformer life is represented by a simple exponential function with a pre-exponential factor and constants in the exponent, which are functions of the type and condition of the insulation system. The pre-exponential factor is a function of the assumed new and end-of-life values of the papers degree of polymerization (typically 1000 and 200 respectively), and physical properties of the paper commonly referred to as factor A. Similarly, the exponential factor is a function of physical properties and is assigned a value between 13500 and 15000. This model can be used in a number of ways to relate operating temperatures to transformer life. It is commonly used as a basis for setting design hot spot and other key operating temperatures in order that the design deliver the lifetimes expected by or specified by transformer operators. It can also be used to calculate the loss of life attributed to overloading. Based on the universal industry acceptance of this model, it can be reasonably adopted as a proxy for the aging of transformers under normal operation. Of course, actual end-of-life in the form of in-service failure is likely to involve other stresses. While normal aging (possibly accelerated by moisture ingress or other chemical mechanisms) gradually weakens the insulation and its supporting system, final failure typically occurs after either or both mechanical and electrical transient stresses impinge on the transformer. For example, short-circuit through faults impose significant mechanical winding stresses, which aging transformers may not withstand in their deteriorated state. Winding deformation occurs 2-8
which leads directly to increased electrical stresses leading to failure in the relatively short-term. Alternatively, electrical transients may simply exceed the dielectric strength of a degraded insulation system leading to immediate failure. Actual post mortem determination of the cause of failure is difficult and in many cases utilities have not carried out the necessary forensic analyses. A CIGRE Working Group 12-05 provides useful data on the rate of transformer failures including some information on causes of failure. Some industry groups such as EEI and Doble provide forums in which utilities present information on significant failures and their studies in determining the cause; however such groups recognize the commercial sensitivity of the information and therefore maintain a degree of confidentiality. Transformer Failure Rates As described in other sections of this report, information on transformer failure rates, specifically the hazard rate function or as it is more commonly know, the bathtub curve, is relevant to the development of the needed methodologies. The bathtub curve was originally used to describe the failure of large groups of electronic components in which a number of early failures was common, followed by an extended period of very low failure rate, and then ultimately followed by a significant increasing failure rate reflecting wear out and old age. Some transformer experts believe that with tight control over transformer acquisition and installation, the transformer hazard rate function should look more like a hockey stick. Unfortunately the real world is not that perfect and though fairly rare, infant mortality failures of transformers do occur. Quantitative data on the hazard rate function for transformers are sparse. Some sources report that the average transformer failure rate is currently about 1% and expected to increase five fold in the next fifteen years. The insurance industry has a particularly focused concern around transformer failure rates. The Bartley 2002 and 2003 papers provide estimates and a number of analytical hazard rate functions indicating a 50% failure rate at age 50, as illustrated in Figure 2-7 below. (While Bartley clearly labels this curve a Hazard Function, we believe it to be a cumulative probability function.).
Figure 2-7 Bartley Hazard Rate Function
2-9
Two additional sources of proprietary data were found, which can be compared with the Bartley data. The population that is insured is largely generation oriented, which would imply that Bartleys curve could be compared with data for Generator Step-Up (GSU) units; however, for example at the age 50 data, that the insurance industry estimated failure rate of 50 % appears to be extremely conservative by comparison with the proprietary data estimate of 20 % for the same age. This highlights some of the problems faced in obtaining good typical industry data. The insurance industry data is based on looking at a population of failed units, while for the purposes of developing a fleet management methodology the relevant hazard rate function needs to be based on the whole population of similar units, both operating and failed. CIGRE Study Committee 12 WG 05 carried out such a survey reported by Dietrich in Electra No. 88. Unfortunately the survey was limited to units less than 20 years of age. Nevertheless the results (tabulated below) provide perhaps the best estimate of overall failure rates in the flat portion of the bathtub curve.
Table 2-1 Data from CIGRE Study Committee 12 WG 05 Primary Voltage Range Age of Units (years) 0-5 >5 - 10 >10 - 20 60 kV-100 kV Failure Rate % 2.8 2.1 1.7 100 kV 300 kV Failure Rate % 1.7 1.9 2.2 300 kV 700 kV Failure Rate % 1.9 2.5 3.2
Note that these results differ significantly from the estimates provided by Bartley; however, the CIGRE survey appears to be well designed and executed and therefore more credible than data provided elsewhere, which is based on unknown sources. Asset Management Practice and Methodologies The literature on asset management methods and technologies is extensive and growing rapidly. Textbook and academic approaches provide basic information and mathematical and business methods. These provide a useful foundation; but because many of these methods involve simplifying assumptions to make analytical solutions practical, application to real problems requires care. For this project, asset management methodologies relevant to larger aged populations of assets are relevant. Aging infrastructure problems are not limited to the power utility business. Water supply systems, roads and bridges and many forms of physical assets are facing similar types of decision analysis. These methods, like most current near-term asset management methods, employ a ranking model using condition assessment data, which results in support for near-term decisions for individual worst of the bunch transformers. Most relevant to this project is an American Electric Power study on failure analysis of EHV transformers (Kogan et al), in which they provide an analysis and discussion of a failure rate calculation and projection of the number of failures to be expected in future time frames.
2-10
Condition assessment is typically based on conventional off-line measurements like DGA with TOA analysis. On-line monitoring is also a growing practice, which offers the possibility for extending the operating life of units close to failure or heavily loaded units with gas or moisture problems. Such technologies can be used to minimize failure risks by identifying symptoms of failure before a failure occurs. Failure risks can be significant, ranging from $0.5 million for environmental clean up, to $1.5 million/day for spot power purchases, to $1.0 million for insurance deductibles. Methods for assessing and managing such risks are available in many sources. Much literature exists on day-to-day transformer maintenance practices. See for example the Bureau of Reclamations FIST manual, which provide a detailed and in-depth summary of available methods. A growing and important aspect of transformer and transformer fleet management is the use of, and the criteria for, application of transformer insulation remediation technologies. Such approaches are attractive for aged transformers and. in particular, to managers of large fleets of transformers who are trying to defer major replacement programs and capital costs. Although such methods for refurbishing transformer insulation systems are intuitively attractive, there is little quantitative information available on the amount of life extension that can be obtained.
2-11
AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY OF DATA MAINTAINED IN TYPICAL UTILITIES
Introduction
During the course of this project PowerNex Associates Inc. (PNA) received, reviewed and analyzed a substantial amount of data and information from a host utility. These data provide a good example of the kind of data, which many utilities maintain. Consistent with the forgoing discussion, the information of primary interest included demographic data (nameplate data such as, model, manufacturer, year built, etc.), failure data (age at failure, type of failure and so on) and factors which would influence transformer aging such as, loading records, condition information (diagnostic test and condition assessment data, results of DGA). These data are important to facilitate grouping of the fleet into comparable populations and to identify anomalies and potential generic or abnormal operational or performance data. The following sections present examples of the data received and the results of analysis of the data, in a form suitable for various business case studies by a utility asset manager.
Demographics Analysis
Demographics analysis is one of the important tools for identifying and presenting data on comparable groups of transformers. While age is not the only factor required to make decisions on populations of transformers, it is an important parameter, which should be used in conjunction with transformer class, application, loading, condition and other parameters to separate equipment into common groups. The scope of this project included only data on transformers in the host utility with ratings at and above 17 MVA. This resulted in the transformer fleet demographics shown in Figure 3-1 below. As transformers differ substantially depending on the rating and application, the total population was split into distinct groups, for which various types of analysis could be carried out.
3-1
Availability and Quality of Data Maintained in Typical Utilities
Figure 3-1 Demographics of All Transformers (17 MVA & Above)
Based on application and size, the overall transformer population was initially sub-divided into 4 groups shown in Table 3-1:
Table 3-1 Initial Groupings of the Transformer Fleet Group No. 1 2 3 4 Ratings Autos (400-550 MVA) 60-200 MVA 50 MVA Dual Secondary Winding (DSW) 17-42 MVA
Of these groupings, the 50 MVA DSW and the 17-42 MVA units were of primary interest. The demographic data for these groups are shown in Figures 3-2 and 3-3.
3-2
Figure 3-2 Demographics of 50 MVA DSW Transformers
Figure 3-3 Demographics of 17-42 MVA Transformers
Clearly the 50 MVA DSW data display an unusual trend that is symptomatic of an unusual purchasing, and/or operational history. The 17- 42 MVA grouping can also be further separated into 2 categories, 17-25 MVA and 30-42 MVA and demographics for these populations are shown in Figures 3-4 and 3-5.
3-3
3-4
In this case, a change in system requirements resulted a significant reduction in purchase of units with ratings less than 25 MVA and subsequent specification and purchase of units having ratings greater than 30 MVA. Clearly the overall demographic data shown in Figure 3-3 hides the important features illustrated by careful population sorting and grouping. Comparison of the above figures with Figure 3-3 indicates that there is a substantial difference in the data for the 17-25 MVA and 30-42 MVA transformer populations, with average age for the former group of 39 more than 2.5 times the average age of the 30-42 MVA population. This type of analysis suggests that separation of the 17-42 MVA populations of transformers would be more appropriate for any subsequent analysis. Based only on demographics, it is clear that these groups are very different in their population/age distributions. However, life expectancy of transformers is not determined by age alone (even though the age can be a useful proxy), but rather, other parameters and factors, most importantly how heavily they are stressed relative to their ratings and how well they have been maintained, have to be considered in analyzing groups of transformers. Data availability related to some of these important factors is described in the next section.
Analysis of 50 MVA Dual Secondary Winding Transformers

Based on discussions with the host utility and on available data and information, PowerNex Associates Inc. concentrated its effort mainly on the population of 50 MVA Dual Secondary Winding (DSW) transformers, which anecdotally had a history of premature failures. Initial efforts focused on data discrepancies between various sources of data. As noted previously, parameters that are important for transformer life, reliability and performance are loading and condition. The following sections summarize data relevant to these topics. Loading Transformer loading is one of the significant factors affecting reliability and life expectancy a transformer and needs to be considered in developing methodologies (these relationships will be described in more detail in Section 4). Data supplied by the host utility provided an understanding of the kind of typical loading these units experience over a period of 1 year. Full 2003 load data was used to extract samples of typical annual and daily bus loads, as presented in Figure 3-6 below. While this represents the hourly variability in loading for only one bus and for only one year, similar data are available for all busses and for many years. These data can be analyzed further to provide a statistical distribution of loading as illustrated in Figure 3-7.
3-5
Figure 3-6 Typical Daily Load Profile for One of the 50 MVA Units
Figure 3-7 Normalized Bus Load Histogram
3-6
Loading data need to be converted into critical transformer temperature data to predict the life of the transformer. Heat run data provides the means for transforming transformer loadings into hot spot temperatures. Using the loading data in conjunction with the heat run data and standard industry methods, it is possible to develop the statistical distribution of transformers hot spot temperatures, which, in turn, allow prediction of life expectancy (based on IEEE Standard C57.91-1995) as will be described in Section 4. Condition Data Another very important factor for application of advanced methodologies is transformer condition. To get a valid condition assessment, a transformer expert needs to carry out a detailed study of condition data, maintenance and repair records, operational data, inspection data and so on. The host utility provided PNA with DGA data for all transformers in its fleet. Most utilities collect this type of data and utilize it to monitor the condition of transformers and create a condition-based ranking list for the transformers in their inventory. To illustrate how such condition-based sorting can be used, demographic data sorted by condition for the population of 50 MVA transformers is shown graphically in Figure 3-8.
Figure 3-8 Condition-Based Sorting of 50 MVA Units Based on Results of DGA Testing/Analysis
As can be seen from this diagram, a substantial portion of population is in what PNAs transformer expert classified as a problematic condition. Clearly, if no remedial action is taken for the problematic group, these two groups need to be separated for the purpose of estimating future failure rates.
3-7
Criticality Most utilities consider criticality of equipment to create a transformer ranking list. The host utility provided PNA with a list of transformer criticality for 50 MVA DSW transformers in which the following parameters were used for determination of overall criticality of transformer unit: Customer Cost System Stability Age / Design
The overall criticality is then a normalized sum of all factors for each transformer. While many utilities use similar approaches to ranking transformers, it should be noted that other parameters, which may have a significant effect on transformer ranking, could be and often are, incorporated explicitly in this type of a model. These include system reliability targets and asset condition. In addition, weights can be added to each factor to influence their effect on the overall criticality. However, it is difficult to quantify the real contribution of each of these factors to criticality, as the ranges of factors and their weights are not quantitatively related to the actual risk of the effects of the loss or reduction in performance of these assets to customers, asset owners and stakeholders in terms of direct capital costs, environmental costs, costs of transmission constraints, bottled generation, replacement power purchases and so on. (Risk is defined as probability of an event multiplied by the full cost of the event.) Such a risk-based approach combined with sensitivity studies for the parameters affecting probability distributions and taking into account condition as a function of time (past & future), would certainly provide substantially better information on how badly (in terms of expected cost) events may go wrong and therefore would improve prioritization of capital and maintenance decisions and thus the return on investment dollars. Failure Data and Analysis Failure data is clearly one of the most important parameters required for proper assessment and analysis of transformers. Failure data can be used to identify unusual failure trends for specific types of transformers, specific manufacturers/repair shops, specific buses in a system or many other factors, which may become evident through analysis. For example, a failure location correlation analysis is illustrated in Figure 3-9.
3-8
Figure 3-9 Failure Analysis by Substation for 50 MVA DSW Transformers
It is interesting to note that 40 out of 44 failures are associated with 13 substations and 30 out of 44 failures have occurred in only 8 substations. While the number of substations with 50 MVA units was not constant over the last 20 years, it has been relatively stable. A summary of this data is presented in the table below:
Table 3-2 Percentage of Failures Associated With Substations # of Stations 2 4 8 13 18 % of Failures Associated With Stations 22.2% 40.0% 66.7% 88.9% 88.9%
3-9
These data indicate that not all stations behave equally which may imply that the operating environment in some substations is worse than in others. Discussions with host utilitys staff and PNA transformer experts suggested that the most likely cause of frequent failures at specific locations was either unequal loading on the two windings resulting in localized overheating, or a reclosing practice associated with line faults called thumping. This practice exposes transformers to more short-circuit events and associated stress. This design of transformers is known to have weakness to short circuit stresses, which may lead to a relatively short life under such conditions. It is also possible that other factors contribute to the poor life performance of the 50 MVA DSW transformers. Over the last 40 years, these units have been repaired by a number of repair and OEM shops, some of which have gone out of business and may have had problems with quality of repairs. The failure data were also analyzed to detect differences between manufacturers. The average age at first failure sorted by OEM is shown in Table 3-3 below. OEMs B and C had the worst record.
Table 3-3 Failure Analysis by Manufacturer (OEM) MFG A B C D E F Years in Service to 1st Failure
22.6 10.0 10.2 24.2 17.0 31.6
Based on these data, it would seem on the surface, at least, that transformers repaired by these facilities did not last anywhere close to the life of original equipment delivered to the host utility. As it is not known whether the stresses to which the transformers were subjected were similar for original and refurbished units, and whether or not operating and maintenance practices remained the same for both groups, it is therefore impossible to conclude that the differences in average life are due to manufacturing or repair quality alone or in conjunction to other factors.
3-10
Figure 3-10 50 MVA DSW Transformer Failures Between 1983 and 2003
Reviewing the average age of transformers at a time of failure, as a function of time frame reveals interesting information. Table 3-4 presents this data. While the 5-year average age at the time of failure shows some variation, the comparison of 15 and 20 year horizons indicates only a small change in the average age to failure.
Table 3-4 Average Age of 50 MVA DSW Transformers as a Function of Time Time Frame of Failures 1983-1988 1989-1992 1993-1997 1998-2003 1983-1997 1983-2003 Average Age at the Time of Failure 9.4 14.3 19.2 14.8 11.7 12.8
As described in the following section of this report, to improve existing forecasting of the rate of transformer failures, it is important to estimate the hazard rate function for each population of transformers being considered. For populations that have a specific generic or systemic failure mode that results in abnormal failure statistics (for example the 50 MVA DSW units discussed above), this function can be approximated by a failure rate function based on operational data. For transformer populations which are operated and maintained to industry standards and which do not display unusual failure modes or rates, overall industry hazard rates may be used as a first approximation until such time as specific company data becomes available. In view of the importance of developing improved failure data, careful pooling of utility data may be advantageous. 3-11
For this project, failure data from the host utility was processed to determine the age of or each transformer when it failed. Demographics data provides the number of similar transformers in service at the respective ages when failures occurred. These data are then combined to develop point estimates for the hazard rate function. As the number of failures for the 50 MVA DSW population is relatively significant, combining the point estimates for the hazard rate can approximate the overall hazard rate function. Summary on Failure Analysis This section of the report demonstrates that even with limited nameplate, some failure data, loading data and condition data, it is possible to carry out several types of analysis, which can provide utility asset managers with valuable insight into the performance of their transformer assets. The analysis also demonstrates the kind of data, which is required to carry out the what if scenarios for business case sensitivity studies. One of the significant peripheral benefits of the formulation of the methodologies in this project is that by identifying the types of decisions that confront asset managers, the type of information required to make those decisions is being identified and therefore the types of data needed to develop the information is clarified. As gathering data and processing it to ensure its accuracy is expensive, knowing what data are necessary and worth gathering (and why) is also very important.
3-12
METHODOLOGIES FOR FLEET MANAGEMENT: TRANSFORMER FAILURE PROJECTION AND AGING METHODOLOGIES
Introduction
Transformers age under operational stresses and ultimately fail. Like all machines that are operated in the real world, the materials, which are used in transformers, weaken and deteriorate over time, which in turn reduces the capability of the transformer to withstand both normal and transient stresses. Deterministic prediction of remaining life with accuracy is impossible in general, because although inspection and tests can reveal a weakened condition, end-of-life in the form of a failure is typically delayed until a transient event causes a significant irreversible damage. For example, a through fault may produce mechanical stresses in the windings that cannot be restrained by the aged and weakened winding insulation and bracing systems. Electrical failure may not occur at this time, because the reduced winding clearances may remain adequate to withstand normal service voltages. Ultimate failure in this weakened condition may take days, months or years depending on the existence and severity of any insulation tracking or partial discharge mechanisms, or the random occurrence of transient over-voltages caused by lightning or switching surges. Therefore failure prediction, particularly for large numbers of transformers, becomes a statistical analysis problem. The insurance industry, which has direct financial risk associated with failure prediction, has taken a significant interest in this topic (Bartley) and have expressed concern over the looming adverse demographic problem. Utilities have, on the other hand, adopted the philosophy that projected failure rates will continue at the same level as in the past. Unfortunately this assumption is based on failure rates consistent with being in the bottom of the Bathtub Curve and it ignores the adverse transformer fleet demographics that are a fact of life for most utilities. The reality is that most utilities are operating significant numbers of transformers having ages in excess of 40, 50 and even 60 years, which implies failure rates consistent with those at the back end of the bathtub. Figure 4-1 illustrates the problem.
4-1
Methodologies for Fleet Management: Transformer Failure Projection and Aging Methodologies
Figure 4-1 Adverse Transformer Fleet Demographics Approaching the Bad End of the Bathtub Curve
Mathematicians call the failure rate curve, or the back end of the bathtub, the hazard rate function. It defines the failure probability at each age bracket. Unlike the more familiar cumulative distribution that defines the probability of failure up to a given age, the hazard rate function defines the probability of surviving up to a certain age and then failing in exactly the next higher age bracket. The projected number of failures is obtained by summing the number of units in each age bracket times the value of the hazard rate function for that age bracket. Clearly, projecting a failure rate to be the same as in the past implies that the hazard rate function is constant (i.e. in the flat part of the bathtub curve) and that the number of transformer units in each age bracket is the same. Neither of these assumptions is valid for most utilities. While projection of future transformer failures based on past experience has formed the basis for spares calculations, in the light of the looming demographics problem, improved methodologies for projecting the number of future transformer failures is increasingly needed to evaluate and build business cases for a range of asset management decisions. For example, should more aggressive (if so and how much more aggressive) proactive transformer replacement programs be implemented? Is there a business case for insulation system reconditioning for groups of transformers that are in a deteriorated state? How much can loading be increased on units that have high moisture, if they are dried out and improved moisture control systems are installed? These types of asset management decisions fall into the category of taking more versus less proactive approaches, and the business case development requires estimates for the benefits in terms of reduced rates of transformer failures and the consequential repair, replacement, cleanup, and related customer service and impact costs. The challenge in developing improved methodologies for projecting failure rates is first to obtain valid demographic and related condition data for defined transformer populations, and secondly to obtain improved estimates for the hazard rate function for these populations. The first task should be relatively straightforward given typical utility record keeping practices. The second task is more complex.
4-2
Real utility data, particularly for populations experiencing unique failure modes, is important. As described earlier in the report, some external data is available from international. The data from these sources are useful for comparative purposes; however, the data is averaged over varying transformer types and applications, and there exist no means to adapt it to specific case studies. The need for this project is to obtain a methodology for evaluation of the hazard rate function, that is a function of transformer operating and maintenance practices, such as loading history and the condition of the insulation system, so that the types of optional asset management scenarios can be modeled to obtain the hazard rate function resulting from implementation of these scenarios. The following section describes the development of such a methodology.
Long-Term Transformer Aging:

Long-term transformer aging, characterized by deterioration processes in the primary insulation systems in the transformer, has been the focus of research for decades. Three interrelated stress parameters are involved. Heating caused by losses under load, the presence of oxygen and the presence of moisture all conspire to break molecular bonds in the cellulose insulating materials and to react with the oil causing damage to the insulation system. Research on this topic, goes back to the early work of Montsinger and Dakin in the 1930s and 40s, which still forms the basis for industry standards. Based on this work, insulation life expectancy can be calculated as functions of temperature, and insulation system condition factors. In practice, transformer loading varies over time and therefore the transformer insulation experiences a range of temperatures depending on the nature of the transformer application, its design and ambient conditions. For example, generating station unit transformers are designed and operated to perform in a fairly narrow temperature range corresponding to the full unit output capacity. On the other hand, typical transmission substation transformers are commonly applied in load growth areas in anticipation of future load with redundancy through system design resulting in loadings over most of the transformer life at less than 50 % of rated full load capability. This load and corresponding temperature variability can be represented by statistical distributions, which describe the relative probability that the unit is operated at specific temperatures. Using the aging model described above, these probability density distributions can be mathematically transformed into the corresponding probability density distributions for the life expectancy of transformers operating with these temperature distributions. The probability density distributions of life expectancy can then be integrated to obtain the more commonly used cumulative distributions, and these can then be used to obtain the hazard rate function. These hazard rate functions as described earlier, are needed with the fleet or asset group demographic distribution in order to obtain failure rate projections. Raw loading data are typically available in most utilities; however, it requires analysis to transform it into a useable format. Figure 3-6 in section 3 illustrates typical loading data for a 50 MVA area supply transformer. These data indicate that as expected, the load on the transformer fluctuates periodically depending on customer demand. This variability in loading can be represented by a corresponding statistical distribution.
4-3
Transformer loading directly influences the temperatures experienced at various locations in a transformer. Of most concern are hot spot temperatures, which because their time constants are relatively short compared with the rate of loading variability, will follow the load without temperature lag. Hot spot temperatures can be estimated for loadings less than rating, based on heat run data (ANSI/IEEE Standard C57.91 1995). An example transformation for good quality thermally upgraded paper insulation is shown in Figure 4-2 below. Knowledge of the statistical distribution of operating temperatures is used with the life expectancy relationship to obtain the corresponding statistical distributions of expected life. This transformation, which is accomplished using well-established statistical methods, allows modeling of the effects of loading and insulation system quality on life expectancy.
Figure 4-2 Hazard Rate and Related Statistical Life Expectancy Distribution Functions Obtained From Transformation of the Corresponding Operating Temperature Distribution
4-4
The process that has been described in the preceding paragraphs is summarized in simplified form in the following figure.
Figure 4-3 Basic Methodology in Simplified Form
Starting on the lower left, raw time based loading data is transformed into the statistical distribution of loadings (in this case for two types of loading). The loading distributions are transformed into hotspot temperature distributions using heat run data and Standards-based methods. These distributions are then transformed again using Standards-based methods into life expectancy distributions. These are convolved with the demographics distributions projected for future years to obtain estimates for the number of failures in future years. The formulation of this probabilistic model provides an extremely useful tool for estimating the effects of loading and insulation system condition on transformer life expectancy. For example if the temperature distribution in the lower part of Figure 4-3 is shifted to the right reflecting higher loadings, the result is that the hazard rate function in the upper figure shifts up and to the left. Similarly if the loading distribution remains the same but the insulation system is allowed to deteriorate, the hazard rate function shifts up and to the left, reflecting a reduced life expectancy. An example of this is illustrated in Figure 4-4 below.
4-5
Figure 4-4 The Effect of Maintaining Insulation System Condition on Life Expectancy
In this case the clean and dry curve represents transformer insulation systems that have been maintained in very good condition. This curve, which reflects the life expectancy of wellmaintained transformer fleets, has been calibrated against two independent proprietary data sources. As can be seen the hazard rate function for degraded insulation shifts significantly to the left reflecting reduced life expectancy. What options has an asset manager when confronted with this situation? There are three, the first of which is to ignore the information and hope that nothing bad happens. Failing that option, the next consideration would be the possibility of refurbishing the affected transformers by treating the oil by drying and de-gassing. This option has been investigated with the results as shown in Figure 4-5.
4-6
Figure 4-5 Refurbishment After 1 Year or 10 Years in a Deteriorated State
As can be seen the effectiveness of the refurbishment process on life expectancy is strongly dependant on how long the insulation systems operated in the deteriorated state. This type of quantitative modeling highlights a couple of important points, namely that insulation system condition has a big effect on life expectancy, and secondly the longer the system is operated in the degraded state, the harder it is to get back to a good state. This model provides the basis for making quantitative business case analyses of the benefit of effective maintenance programs which keep transformers in good shape, and as well it can be used to asses the cost benefit of investment in insulation system refurbishment programs.
4-7
The last option that an asset manager might consider in this scenario, relates to the rating of the affected units. If as a management policy, early transformer failures are frowned upon, or alternatively transformer life expectancies are expected to meet industry norms, the last remaining option is to de-rate the unit. In this case the hazard rate function for the degraded insulation system needs to be shifted to the right by determining what reduced loading would be tolerable. For some utilities this may be a viable option, if the system design has been based on very conservative redundancy provisions. But for other utilities, that have under-invested in infrastructure through the past few years of uncertainty during industry restructuring, loadings will have increased, and this last option of reducing ratings is not practical. The methodology upon which this example is based puts a quantitative you pay me now or you pay me later tool in the hands of the asset manager. In some cases the asset manager is faced with a generic or systemic problem with a segment of a company transformer fleet. The problem may have been a specific design or manufacturing flaw involving a number of units that was not discovered until all of the units were in service. Or the problem may be an operational issue involving the occurrence of excessive stresses that were not anticipated at the planning or specification stage. In either case, the problem is manifest through a significant number of transformer failures at service lives well less than the normal service life. The problem may exist for several years before the trend is suspected because failures of all types are normally combined. Without careful forensic analysis after failures, recognition of the subgroup of at-risk transformers may not occur. Separation of the corresponding generic and normal failure data is a critical step. Figure 4-6 illustrates this concept. Generic problems of this type tend to be unique, which implies that industry or aggregated past failure data for the utility in question will probably not give a good representation of the hazard rate for the group of transformers at risk of the generic failure mechanism. Therefore it is important that actual failure data relevant to this type of generic failure be separated out of the overall failure statistics of the utility as illustrated in the figure. The hazard rate for the remainder of the population that is aging normally can be represented by industry data or company data (with the generic failure data removed) if available.
4-8
Figure 4-6 Asset Management Issues in Solving Unique Transformer Problems
Convolving the respective hazard rates with the corresponding demographic data as the populations progress in age yields projections of the number of failures over time in the future. Clearly if the status quo is maintained, as in Case 1 above, the number of projected failures is greater than the situation as shown in Case 2 in which the generic problem is solved. Analysis using a methodology of this type is important for spares calculations and to estimate the cost impacts of prospective failures in the event that Case 1 or a continuation of the status quo is selected. If Case 2 is the choice, several solution options may be possible; but this methodology provides the analytical information necessary to build the business cases for the range of solution options that may be of interest. While in general, solution options may involve considerable capital and other costs, careful analysis of these costs compared with the prospective costs of the short-term, Case 1 option may provide the necessary justification for longer-term solutions.
4-9
SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Summary
While this project is in its early stages, our objectives are to establish basic feasibility of methodologies that can be applied effectively as tools for the analysis of asset management decisions involving aged transformer fleets. The results of our investigations have identified significant analytical weaknesses in conventional methodologies that need to be improved for aged populations and to meet the increased scrutiny of utility managers and regulators. The state of underlying knowledge of transformer aging is an ongoing research topic, which requires continuing attention; however, as described above, sufficient knowledge and data exists to formulate significant new methodologies, which can be effectively applied to emerging asset management needs.
Conclusions
Transformer fleet management is an increasingly important subject for most utilities and: Developing and justifying a transformer fleet management strategy and the rational basis for it is a critical need Existing methods are not adequate for the effective management of the impending boomer generation of aging transformers Increasing regulator and shareholder scrutiny demands better tools to help managers develop and support optimum transformer investment needs Survey confirms that utilities are increasingly concerned about implementing effective strategies to deal with the looming problem of large numbers of aged transformers.
Although utility managers are in perfect agreement that improved methodologies are needed, the kinds of decisions/business case analyses that are of interest vary depending on the specific circumstances in each utility. Some typical needs are listed below: Spares/replacement projection, which takes into account the specific demographics and condition of the population. This type of analysis is needed to evaluate options for more versus less proactive replacement programs and to allow more accurate planning of capital investment needs and to secure better contractual arrangements with suppliers for these options. 5-1
Summary, Conclusions and Recommendations
Reassessment or evaluation of loading criteria versus life expectancy. Efficacy of and payback on insulation system reconditioning. Related to this topic is evaluation of the trade-off between maintenance of transformer condition versus loading capability needed to achieve a standard life expectancy. Generic problems can occur through mistakes in design, manufacture or application. Evaluation of optional solutions of such problems involving projection of minimal cost donothing failure rates/costs versus projected failure rates/costs for the other solutions is of interest in specific utilities. Data is typically available in utilities; but it requires work to mine and analyze correctly. When analyzed and presented effectively, the data alone provides valuable insights for asset managers. Methodologies applicable to normal aging in well-maintained and operated fleets are available and can be implemented to provide quantitative support in business case analysis. In unusual situations, similar formulations can be customized to provide specific results for populations that are influenced by atypical failure modes.
This project has demonstrated that utility managers recognize a need for improved asset management methods, that significant advances in methodology are feasible and that the necessary data are available. As part of this project the sponsoring utility got an insight into the strength and weaknesses of maintenance and capital replacement programs for transformers and a better understanding of benefits of particular tasks, sub as an independent review of condition assessment and failure data assessment analysis.
Recommendations
The promising results of this preliminary project need to be expanded through broadening the range of application and through extending and deepening the analysis. Specific recommendations include: Broaden the range of applicability through work with additional EPRI host utilities, to widen and confirm the extent of asset managers decision requirements and needs, and to confirm the availability and quality of data in other utility business and regulatory environments. Extend the formulation of the methodologies described in this report by working with the existing and additional host utilities in implementing prototype production methodologies, which will produce analyses for selected business cases.
5-2
REFERENCES
1. ANSI/IEEE, IEEE Guide for Loading Mineral-Oil-Immersed Transformers, C57.91 1995 2. Bartley, W.H., Life Cycle Management of Utility Transformer Assets, Breakthrough Asset Management for the Restructured Power Industry Oct. 10-11, 2002 Salt Lake City Utah 3. Bartley, W.H., Analysis of Transformer Failures International Association of Engineering Insurers 36th Annual Conference Stockholm 2003 4. Dakin, T.W., Electrical Insulation Deterioration Treated as a Chemical Reaction Rate Phenomenon, AIEE Transactions Vol. 66, 1947, pp 113-122 5. Dietrich W., An International Survey on Failures in Large Power Transformers in Service, Electra No. 88 6. FIST Manual 3-30, Transformer Maintenance, Facilities Instructions, Standards, And Techniques October 2000 Hydroelectric Research And Technical Services Group D-8450 United States Department Of The Interior Bureau Of Reclamation Denver, Colorado http://www.usbr.gov/power/data/fist/fist3_30/fist3_30.htm 7. Kogan V.I., J.A. Fleeman, J.H. Provanzana, and C.H. Shih Failure Analysis of EHV Transformers IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 3, No. 2, April 1988, pp672-683 8. Montsinger, V.M., Loading of Transformers by Temperature, AIEE Transactions Vol. 49, 1930, pp 776-792
6-1
SUMMARY OF INTERVIEWS WITH UTILITIES
A-1
Summary of Interviews With Utilities
A-2
DATA ANALYSIS APPLICATIONS MATRIX
A summary table demonstrating the kind of data which is typically available in the utilities and how it can be utilized, is presented below:
Table B-1 Typical Available Data and Uses Available Data Age, Model, Condition (DGA) What can be done with data Demographics and condition assessment + trending Analysis / Predictions Age / Condition vs time Replacement needs analysis Age, Model, Condition (DGA) Can convolve demographics for applicable population with industry failure rate data (age vs failure rate) to predict: Spares needs analysis Cost/Benefit analysis for Tx replacement & spares Better prediction of replacement needs for specific circumstances short & longer terms Better spares strategy Create a better model for age and/or condition vs time or other parameters, such as through faults, switching surges, loads Failure Cause Analysis for each class / population of Txs Consider mitigation for changes in loading stresses (de-rating, feeder reconfiguration, re-location, replacement) Consider mitigation for changes in SCC. stresses (derating, bus splitting, re-location, replacement) Consider mitigation for changes in surge/lighting stresses (de-rating, cap banks, surge arrestors, relocation, replacement) Thermal loading data for each Tx class Heat run data for each Tx class Can model benefit/impact for maintenance/reconditioning of insulation systems versus loading More accurate rating and loss of life calculation
Failure Rate for specific classes or populations of Tx
Can create a specific hazard function and more accurate convolution of existing and future populations vs time and/or condition
Correlate Nameplate Data with Failure Data to predict which if any equipment subpopulations can be Affected by identified Failure Causes, with what probability and consequences, depending on criticality.
Benefit/Impact for changes in maintenance policy Benefit of Heat Run data/testing
B-1
Data Analysis Applications Matrix Table B-1 Typical Available Data and Uses (continued) Available Data Availability and cost/benefits of new/existing technologies What Can Be Done With Data Assessment of benefit of new technologies (monitoring, oil treatment, etc.) Cost / Benefit of new data / methods on: maintenance polices performance Costs and Benefits of increased / decreased operation and/or maintenance policies Tx spares Tx replacement strategy Load ratings Short.Circuit. ratings Tx relocation Tx Rewinding Bus splitting Installation of surge arresters, cap banks Sensitivity studies to determine how accurate the data has to be, how often it should be obtained, etc. to provide a positive ROI Quantitative, risk-based approach to business case analysis of various options and alternatives for capital and OM&A budgets Analysis / Predictions Incremental improvement in life expectancy and ROI on refurbishment of Tx insulation system, etc.
Data issues
Classification of equipment, accuracy, digitize condition, exception reporting and actions
B-2
Export Control Restrictions Access to and use of EPRI Intellectual Property is granted with the specific understanding and requirement that responsibility for ensuring full compliance with all applicable U.S. and foreign export laws and regulations is being undertaken by you and your company. This includes an obligation to ensure that any individual receiving access hereunder who is not a U.S. citizen or permanent U.S. resident is permitted access under applicable U.S. and foreign export laws and regulations. In the event you are uncertain whether you or your company may lawfully obtain access to this EPRI Intellectual Property, you acknowledge that it is your obligation to consult with your companys legal counsel to determine whether this access is lawful. Although EPRI may make available on a case by case basis an informal assessment of the applicable U.S. export classification for specific EPRI Intellectual Property, you and your company acknowledge that this assessment is solely for informational purposes and not for reliance purposes. You and your company acknowledge that it is still the obligation of you and your company to make your own assessment of the applicable U.S. export classification and ensure compliance accordingly. You and your company understand and acknowledge your obligations to make a prompt report to EPRI and the appropriate authorities regarding any access to or use of EPRI Intellectual Property hereunder that may be in violation of applicable U.S. or foreign export laws or regulations.
The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), with major locations in Palo Alto, CA, and Charlotte, NC, was established in 1973 as an independent, non-profit center for public interest energy and environmental research. EPRI brings together member organizations, the Institute's scientists and engineers, and other leading experts to work collaboratively on solutions to the challenges of electric power. These solutions span nearly every area of power generation, delivery, and use, including health, safety, and environment. EPRI's members represent over 90% of the electricity generated in the United States. International participation represents over 10% of EPRI's total R&D program.
Program: Substations
1011437
2005 Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Inc. All rights reserved. Electric Power Research Institute and EPRI are registered service marks of the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. TOGETHERSHAPING THE FUTURE OF ELECTRICITY is a service mark of the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. Printed on recycled paper in the United States of America
Togethershaping the future of electricity
Electric Power Research Institute 3412 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, California 94304 PO Box 10412, Palo Alto, California 94303 USA 800.313.3774 650.855.2121 askepri@epri.com www.epri.com

000000000001011437

Enviado por

Dados do documento

Descrição original:

Direitos autorais

Formatos disponíveis

Compartilhar este documento

Compartilhar ou incorporar documento

Opções de compartilhamento

Você considera este documento útil?

Este conteúdo é inapropriado?

Direitos autorais:

Formatos disponíveis

000000000001011437

Enviado por

Direitos autorais:

Formatos disponíveis

Innovative Methods for Managing Aged Transformer Fleets

Innovative Methodologies for Managing Aged Transformer Fleets

Final Report, February 2005

EPRI Project Manager B. Ward

DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITIES

REVIEW OF INDUSTRY NEEDS AND EXISTING PRACTICES

Informal Survey Objectives

Review of Industry Needs and Existing Practices

Figure 2-1 Responses to Informal Survey

Figure 2-2 Responses to Informal Survey

Review of Industry Needs and Existing Practices

Figure 2-3 Responses to Informal Survey

Figure 2-4 Responses to Informal Survey

Review of Industry Needs and Existing Practices

Figure 2-5 Responses to Informal Survey

Figure 2-6 Responses to Informal Survey

Review of Industry Needs and Existing Practices

Summary of Informal Interviews With Utilities

Review of Industry Needs and Existing Practices

Review of Industry Needs and Existing Practices

Review of Industry Needs and Existing Practices

Information From the Literature and Industry Sources

Review of Industry Needs and Existing Practices

Figure 2-7 Bartley Hazard Rate Function

Review of Industry Needs and Existing Practices

Review of Industry Needs and Existing Practices

AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY OF DATA MAINTAINED IN TYPICAL UTILITIES

Availability and Quality of Data Maintained in Typical Utilities

Figure 3-1 Demographics of All Transformers (17 MVA & Above)

Availability and Quality of Data Maintained in Typical Utilities

Figure 3-2 Demographics of 50 MVA DSW Transformers

Figure 3-3 Demographics of 17-42 MVA Transformers

Availability and Quality of Data Maintained in Typical Utilities

Figure 3-4 Demographics of 30-42 MVA Transformers

Figure 3-5 Demographics of 30-42 MVA Transformers

Availability and Quality of Data Maintained in Typical Utilities

Analysis of 50 MVA Dual Secondary Winding Transformers

Availability and Quality of Data Maintained in Typical Utilities

Figure 3-7 Normalized Bus Load Histogram

Availability and Quality of Data Maintained in Typical Utilities

Availability and Quality of Data Maintained in Typical Utilities

Availability and Quality of Data Maintained in Typical Utilities

Figure 3-9 Failure Analysis by Substation for 50 MVA DSW Transformers

Availability and Quality of Data Maintained in Typical Utilities

22.6 10.0 10.2 24.2 17.0 31.6

Availability and Quality of Data Maintained in Typical Utilities

Availability and Quality of Data Maintained in Typical Utilities

Long-Term Transformer Aging:

Figure 4-3 Basic Methodology in Simplified Form

Figure 4-5 Refurbishment After 1 Year or 10 Years in a Deteriorated State

Figure 4-6 Asset Management Issues in Solving Unique Transformer Problems

SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Summary, Conclusions and Recommendations

SUMMARY OF INTERVIEWS WITH UTILITIES

Summary of Interviews With Utilities

DATA ANALYSIS APPLICATIONS MATRIX

Failure Rate for specific classes or populations of Tx

Benefit/Impact for changes in maintenance policy Benefit of Heat Run data/testing

Classification of equipment, accuracy, digitize condition, exception reporting and actions

Togethershaping the future of electricity

Você também pode gostar