DOC/VJMUN/2014/SPECPOL/STUDYGUIDE

VJTI MODEL UNITED NATIONS

SPECPOL STUDY GUIDE

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An Introduction to SPECPOL
The United Nations Fourth Committee of the UN General Assembly (also known as the Special Political and Decolonization Committee is one of six committees of the United Nations (consisting of all UN members). Its initial jurisdiction was applied to trusteeship and non-self-governing territories. However, after the eventual independence of all the trusteeship and the vast majority of non-selfgoverning states, the trusteeship system was disassembled. With the limited number of nonself-governing states, there was not enough jurisdiction to keep the committee fully occupied. Therefore, it was merged with the Special Political Committee, which was created as a seventh committee in order to deal with specific political issues after the General Assembly concluded that the first Committee (Disarmament and Political) needed further committees to assist. SPECPOL deals with issues such as decolonization, refugees and human rights, peacekeeping, mine action, outer space, atomic radiation, outer space and the University for Peace (a United Nations University that was established in Costa Rica in order to institutionalize education that is dedicated to international peace).

USA and the Middle East

The US has deployed military personnel in various countries in the Middle East. Many of these countries are partially or completely dependent upon the military presence of USA for stability and security.

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COUNTRY: Afghanistan Bahrain Egypt Israel Jordan Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Turkey United Arab Emirates

NO. OF MILITARY DEPLOYED BY USA: 60,000 2,902 292 10, 500* 150 * 15,000* 700 800 278 2,400 193

PERSONNEL

*approximate figures This expenditure occupies a significant portion of US spending. However, the relationship between USA and the Middle East is not one sided. Just as the Middle East is dependent upon USA for security, USA is also heavily dependent upon the Middle East for oil. The US expenditure on imported foreign oil was 433 billion USD, which represents 0.7 percent of the 62.7 trillion USD GDP for 2012. The USs chief source of oil from the Middle East is Saudi Arabia. U.S. Energy Department statistics indicate that by the end of November 2012, USAs crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia stood at 450 million barrels. In fact, for the first time since 2003, the Saudi imports accounted for more than 15 per cent of the US oil imports. It also imports oil from Iraq.

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USA: Potential Self Sufficiency in Oil

According to Cambridge Energy Researchs Daniel Yergin, The United States is in the midst of the unconventional revolution in oil and gas that, it becomes increasingly apparent, goes beyond energy itself. He also stated that The industry supports 1.7 million jobs a considerable accomplishment given the relative newness of the technology. That number could rise to 3 million by 2020. In fact, according to the International Energy Agency, the US will surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the worlds leading oil producer by 2017, and will become a net oil exporter by 2030. US oil output, instead of continuing further with its decline, has increased drastically (by about 38 %) since 2008. The US has made extensive use of the technique of Hydraulic Fracturing, commonly referred to as Fracking . Fracking refers to the procedure of creating fractures in rocks and rock formations by injecting fluid into cracks to force them further open for the purpose of extraction of oil. Fracking has resulted in many oil and gas wells attaining a state of economic viability, due to the sustainable

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level of extraction that can be reached. Drilling in shale beds has left the American shoreline with expensive but idle drilling plants to import gas in liquid form. A huge amount of gas has been fracked and its price has skyrocketed. American drillers have started using the same technology to extract oil from shale beds, however this is still expensive. Although there is a larger supply of oil, as well as of biofuels and natural gas, cars are getting more efficient. The demand, therefore, is waning. According to an estimate by the EIA, by 2035 the American oil imports will have fallen to a third of current levelsjust over 3 million barrels per day. By then, US will probably be exporting the same amount of energy as coal and gas. According to analysts, US military presence in the Middle East is likely to gradually fade. Evaluating the massive cost factor and the threat to the lives of American soldiers, it is highly probable that with the decline in oil incentive the US shall disappear from the scene.

Case Study: IRAQ

HISTORY OF THE SITUATION
So why, exactly, did the US invade Iraq ten years ago? During World War I, Iraq sided with Germany and eventually fell under British control after the war. After that, Iraq experienced several changes in government until in 1979, when Sadam Hussein came to power as President. At the time, the US supported Hussein. Due to the Iran hostage situation, the US was out of sorts with Iran, and therefore gladly sold Iraq millions of dollars worth of US weapons, to back it in the Iraq- Iran war (1980). In 1982, the US State Department, headed by President Ronald Reagan, removed Iraq from its list of states supporting international terrorism despite opposition by certain congress members. In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. Iraqs economy was hurting at the time due to the recent war with Iran. It accused Kuwait of cheating it of its share of the Rumaila oil field and claimed to be aggravated by Kuwaits uncompromising attitude in negotiations regarding the islands of Bubiyan and Warbah, strategically situated near the Iraqi naval base of Umm Qasr. Husseins invasion was successful, and he declared Kuwait to be a part of Iraq. The UN strongly objected to this, and responded by creating a coalition of countries, and building up forces in Saudi Arabia. The First Gulf War began. Operation Desert Storm was primarily full of air attacks against Iraq, which lasted for 100 days, as Iraqi armed forces were destroyed very quickly, and they hastily retreated from Kuwait. Following Kuwaits liberation, the UN appointed a five-member boundary commission to demarcate the Kuwait- Iraq boundary.

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In 1993, the CIA intelligence agency apparently discovered Husseins covert plan to assassinate former President George H.W. Bush. As a result of this, US Iraq relations turned cold, and the US launched an operation called Desert Fox. The US started making several allegations against Iraq throughout the years, with special reference to Iraqs secret weapon laboratories and uranium acquisition, insinuating Iraqs stockpiling motives. In 2002, the UNSC passed resolution 1441, offering Iraq a final opportunity to comply with its disarmament obligations. Although the US had support of many countries, France and Germany, 2 of its main allies in the NATO, defended disarmament through diplomacy and thought that military intervention would be the worst solution. The US finally invaded Iraq in 2003, with the official reason being that Iraq had failed to abandon its nuclear and chemical weapons development programme in violation of UN Resolution 687. It justified the invasion by saying that Iraq was developing weapons of mass destruction, as well as stated a desire to remove Husseins oppressive dictatorship from Iraq and bring Iraqs people democracy. The 9/11 attacks further aggravated USAs fervour. Another factor that played a pivotal role in the invasion was oil. Oil was an issue because Iraqs oil revenues meant that Hussein would always have the resources to foment trouble in the region, would always be difficult to remove through internal opposition, and would always use petrodollar influence to undermine U.N. resolutions, spike world oil prices, or distort Western solidarity. However, many are certain that the invasion was planned with the ulterior motive of seizing Iraqs wealth of oil resources.

IRAQ AND USA: 2003 2011

The period during the US invasion of Iraq was not uneventful, to say the least. Rather than initially boosting the US public image, due to news such as grotesque abuses of Iraqi detainees by U.S. soldiers, the invasion undermined it, spiking domestic and foreign criticism of the USs decision to invade Iraq. The occupation forces were unable to thwart a wave of lawlessness and violence that destabilized Iraq in just weeks subsequent to Husseins downfall. The USs at tempt to organize popular elections for a new government within 90 days failed miserably. Within months, the US faced a debilitating insurgency across Iraq. This seemed to come from three sources: the Sunnis, Shiite militias, and non Iraqi Islamists who infiltrated Iraq due to their deep-seated hatred for the US. Suicide attacks, sniper fires, car bombs and roadside bombs were commonplace, and killed several US soldiers, more than those who had died during the invasion itself. The annual costs to the US treasury rose dramatically, and the security situation in the US itself worsened because of anti-US attacks.

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The US established the CPA (Coalition Provisional Authority) to govern Iraq. The CPA transferred full governmental authority to the Iraqi Interim Government in 2004. In 2005, millions of Iraqis participated in a democratic election. There was a clash between the growing insurgency and the quest to democratize Iraq, which came to a head in 2006. President Bush, in a strategic initiative known as the surge, increased the number of GIs in Iraq and ordered them to reform their modes of operation and engage in political initiatives designed to gain goodwill. US forces used diplomacy, persuasion and aid to mobilize various factions to fight against insurgent groups. By 2008, the surge seemed to succeed. The presence of US troops partially suppressed Iraqs internal political, military and economic challenges. Obama took office in 2009 and gradually concluded US military presence in Iraq. He ended combat operations in 2010, and according to a formerly signed SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement), withdrew them all in 2011.

POST 2011- WHAT NEXT?

Post the withdrawal, Iraq is in an ongoing struggle to establish a new identity. There are several factors which are playing the role of an impediment in its progress. Deep sectarian divisions between its Shiites and Sunnis, as well as ethnic divisions between the Arabs, Kurdish and other minorities are just undercurrents, as at the same time, Iraq must build a new structure of governance, economic and social order after a period of dictatorship, war sanctions and occupation. Iraq has to cope with its growing population and try to diversify its economy, which is so dependent on petroleum exports. Internal events aggravate tensions between the central government and the factional groups (like the Sunnis and Kurds), so much so that the brewing political crisis seems inevitable. There already is a looming threat of Southern Kurdistan opting for secession.

Iraq has a high level of corruption rated 175th out of 183 countries by Transparency International. Roughly 25% of Iraqs population lives below the poverty line. Its unemployment is at least 15% and its real direct and indirect unemployment is at least 25% -- heavily weighted toward youth unemployment. As of now, one of the bloodiest confrontations between Iraqs Sunni community (the minority) and the Shiite regime exists. The United Nations estimates that about 712 people died in political violence during the month of April 2013. However, there are no US troops available to suppress the violence in the region, and there is a threat that this violence could merge with that in Syria and eventually spread to Lebanon. Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki has been turning a blind eye to shipments of arms and Shiite fighters to Syria in spite of repeated appeals from the US government. The Sunnis and the Kurdish believe that Maliki has failed to deliver on promises; however, Maliki has not done anything concrete to prove their hypothesis wrong. The actions of the government are

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prompted mostly by the situation in Syria. It fears that a victory by the Sunni opposition in Syria (who are receiving support from the Sunni regimes in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar) would incite an attempt to restore Sunni dominance in Iraq. Brewing up trouble is not only the al-Qaeda, but also an organization of former Hussein supporters called the Baathist party. Maliki has been urging dialogue to calm tensions, yet at the same time has vowed to continue military operations due to the growing sectarian conflict. Recently, fighting has also been raging in the northern city of Mosul, Falluja, and in villages surrounding Baquba. Sunni Sheikh Abdul Malik al-Saadi has been encouraging Iraqs security force members to abandon their posts and join the opposition, due to which several Sunni member of the army have been deserting. Iraqs domestic challenges also have external implications. Iraq is not only a key focus of the competition between the US and Iran, but also between Iran and Southern Gulf states. It is involved in the civil conflict in Syria, and the broader Shiite-Sunni struggles that now affect most of the Islamic world. Iraq needs trade and cross-border support from Iran and aid, diplomatic and military support from the US. The US is trying to restructure its policy based on the reality that its past plans for strategic partnership have failed. The future role the US will play in Iraq needs to be smaller than it was till 2011, yet at the same time, help defend Iraq tackle outside threats. USAs success will primarily depend on the limited extent to which it can help the Iraqi government move towards a form of viable political unity and form of effective governance.

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Case Study: AFGHANISTAN

Four years ago, I promised to end the war in Iraq. We did. I promised to refocus on the terrorists who actually attacked us on 9/11. We have. We've blunted the Taliban's momentum in Afghanistan, and in 2014, our longest war will be over. A new tower rises above the New York skyline, al Qaeda is on the path to defeat, and Osama bin Laden is dead. Barack Obama, September 6th, 2012.

HISTORY OF THE SITUATION

Since independence from the British in 1919 and joining the UN in 1946, Afghanistan has experienced a number of tumultuous events - King Zahir Shahs experiment with democracy (1964-1973); a military coup in 1973 that resulted in the creation of a parliamentary democracy, Marxist coups in

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1978 followed by an insurgency and Soviet intervention. At first, the USSR had provided support to the new government. However, when the government refused to take Soviet advice, the USSR toppled the government, installed a new leader, and invaded the country. As it was in the midst of the Cold War, Afghan freedom fighters (mujahidin) were backed by the US. It began to receive substantial assistance in the form of weapons and training primarily aided by the US, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. From 1979 to 1989, Afghanistan underwent a ten-year war with the Soviet Union, in which it was completely devastated. According to the US Department of State, an estimate of one million Afghan lives were lost, while approximately 4.5 million refugees fled the country 3 million to Pakistan and 1.5 million to Iran. Even after Soviet withdrawal in 1989, the war continued, between various militias that coexisted uneasily during the occupation. The defeat of their common enemy brought to surface the militias ethnic, clan, religious and personality differences, and civil war continued until 1999, when the Taliban slowly expanded its influence, controlling about 90% of the country. The Taliban comprises members chiefly from the southern Pashtun ethnic group, which ruled Afghanistan for hundreds of years. Although it managed to suppress the anarchy due to the civil war, the Taliban implemented an extreme interpretation of Islam in the entire country, based upon the Pashtun tribal code, and committed massive human rights violations. The Taliban was especially harsh toward women and minority populations. It closed down all girls schools, did not permit women to venture out of their homes, and banned games, sports and entertainment. The normal form of punishment was being stoned to death, executed in public, or having their limbs amputated.

INVASION:
Twelve years ago, on the 11th of September 2001, the world experienced one of the most horrific attacks in modern history, the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York. The attacks were carried out by a group of fanatics on the orders of Osama bin Laden, the founder and leader of the al-Qaeda. Bin Laden was being given sanctuary by the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The UNSC imposed sanctions on the Taliban to encourage it to expel bin Laden and the al-Qaeda group, but it stubbornly refused. The US and members of the NATO, attacked the capital city of Kabul, forcing the Taliban to flee.

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NATO ISAF
NATO-ISAF aims to prevent Afghanistan from once again becoming a haven for terrorists, to help provide security, and to contribute to a better future for the Afghan people. It is working to create conditions whereby the Government of Afghanistan is able to exercise its authority throughout the country. To carry out its mission, ISAF conducts population-centric counterinsurgency operations in partnership with the Afghan National Army (ANA) and provides support to the Government and International Community in Security Sector Reform, which includes mentoring, training and operational support to the ANA. NATO-ISAFs key priorities in Afghanistan are to: Protect the Afghan people Build the capacity of the Afghan Security Forces so they can take lead responsibility for security in their own country Counter civil insurgency Enable the delivery of stronger governance and development NATO-ISAF forces have been able to partially suppress anarchy in the region; however, have been unable to completely stabilize it. With countries like Pakistan apparently providing training areas, havens and equipment to the Taliban, it is very strong, and manages to launch frequent attacks. In 2010, there was a deployment of additional troops in Afghanistan, known as the surge.

POST 2014- WHAT NEXT?

With the US and the NATO forces planning to leave in 2014, the burning question arises: will the Afghan forces be able to survive? Efforts to guarantee stability continue to be undermined by the Taliban-led insurgency that has apparent access to safe havens in Pakistan. Alleged hideouts of the Taliban in Pakistan include Babargarh area of South Waziristan, Danday Darpakhel area of North Waziristan and Bannu which sits along North and South Waziristan. A highway that runs from Quetta, Pakistanthe epicentre of Taliban operationsto Kandahar, Afghanistan, is a major route for noninterrupted of weapons and fighters. Some research indicates that the Taliban has turned to

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sub-contracting youth from Pakistan. The insurgents supply the explosives, but the unemployed youth plant them for cash and incentive, sometimes even risking their lives in the process. The rates are 10,000 20,000 Pakistani rupees to blow up an Afghan police vehicle, 20,000 for US vehicles, and even as high as 100,000 for a coalition vehicle. In 2007, Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was founded as a union of militant groups in Pakistan. Other factors which play a role are concerns about the international communitys long-term commitment to Afghanistan following the transition to Afghan security in 2014, as well the implications of a political settlement with the Taliban and other armed opposition groups. After more than a decade of intervention in Afghanistan, the insurgency groups (Taliban, IMU, Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin, the Haqqani network, Lashkare -Taiba) remain resilient, the Afghan government weak, and the international community fatigued. Despite increased ISAF troop levels, as well as the recent killing of Osama bin Laden and other al Qaeda operatives by the NATOISAF forces, the number of attacks in Afghanistan this year has risen. Over the past couple of years, there has been an 80% increase in the use of isolated, homemade bombs-the IED (Improvised Explosive Device), by the Taliban insurgency. Last year itself, there were nearly 15,000 IED incidents, causing 1900 US Casualties. Overall, more than 60% of US casualties and 85% of Afghan army and police force casualties in Afghanistan are caused by IEDs. This chaos is a strong reason for the delay in the withdrawal of the forces. Although the US will continue to play an advisory role in suggestion post the withdrawal, the world is not sure whether the ANA and the Afghan National Security Forces will be able to manage defending themselves from the Taliban on their own. There are several reasons to believe that US military withdrawal would be detrimental for Afghanistan, many of which stem from old tradition. The ANSF is primarily made up of uneducated and underpaid Pashtun men, who may not be able to maintain the logistics systems and infrastructure implemented by the US, along with which, the ANSF has no means by which it can maintain American military equipment. The ANSF lack discipline; drug consumption, homicide and conflicts between soldiers are common stories. In fact, the Taliban has a better maintained logistics systems and structural organisation than the ANSF. Furthermore, the extremist interpretation of the ideology of Jihad, is the glue that holds the insurgents together, and causes them to sacrifice anything for their cause, much to the chagrin of the US troops trying to stabilize Afghanistan. With Afghanistans neighbours in the Middle East facing sectarian war and trouble of their own, the Taliban can easily attack Afghanistan once it is vulnerable after the withdrawal. Afghanistan is one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world. Concerns still remain as to how Afghanistan, heavily dependent on foreign aid and businesses created due to foreign

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military presence, can manage post the withdrawal. About half the population suffers from shortages of housing, clean drinking water, electricity and employment. Afghanistans biggest economic challenge is finding a source of sustainable and equitable growth. Another take on the matter is that the troops should withdraw NOW, for staying longer will not help achieve a victory; the Taliban will simply wait it out, as it has done for the past 12 years. Nearly 2,000 U.S. soldiers have been killed and 15,000 wounded trying to create a workable Afghan state, at a cost exceeding a half trillion dollars. Yet the U.S. has neither broken the back of the Taliban nor created effective Afghan institutions. Building an effective Afghan state is ultimately up to the Afghanis, not the Americans. What will happen to Afghanistan when US troops leave?

SPECULATION: Afghanistan, a worse Iraq?

Many believe that the US war in Iraq was a war of choice, but there are mixed opinions regarding the nature of the war in Afghanistan. President Obama said of the US military operations in Afghanistan, This is not a war of choice. This is a war of necessity. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq share fundamental differences as well as significant similarities.

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Iraqs population is sparsely distributed, that is, primarily concentrated in a collection of key cities along the Tigris and Euphrates river valleys. By comparison, Afghanistan is physically bigger, with a larger, more dispersed, and more rural populace. Its terrain is also much more challenging. These

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factors point to the need for an appreciably greater number of forces and a more complex logistics systems in Afghanistan as opposed to in Iraq. The educational levels in both nations also point to their disparity. According to UNESCO, the overall literacy rate in Iraq is approximately 80%. According to the NRVA (National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment), the estimated national literacy rate in Afghanistan is 26%.

ECONOMIC SCENARIO
The unemployment rate in Afghanistan is about 40%, according to Index Mundi, while in Iraq it is about 16%. The trend of unemployment is shown in the two statistical charts below:

Iraq highly benefits from its oil production. It has the fifth largest proven crude oil reserves in the world, and it passed Iran as the second largest producer of crude oil in OPEC at the end of 2012. Iraq was the 6th largest net exporter of petroleum liquids in the world in 2012, with the majority of its oil exports going to the United States and to refineries in Asia. Afghanistans oil production, in comparison is close to nothing.

POLITICAL STATUS QUO

The political challenge in Iraq is essentially one of reconstruction, whereas in Afghanistan, it is one of building from scratch. Iraq has a somewhat educated population, and some professional businesses; however, Afghanistan has hardly reached even a basic level of national organization or sophistication. Soviet war and occupation, subsequent Afghan civil war, and warlord-led division, among other

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events, have basically destroyed any pre-existing political institutions. As a consequence, Afghanistan has limited national infrastructure and lacks effective self-government. The fight in Iraq was mostly among internal and civic factions, with the US trying to suppress and settle them. However, upon withdrawal, they have resumed in full vigour. Afghanistan is more a conflict of the government and the US in opposition to the insurgent Taliban. No major domestic conflict currently exists in Afghanistan, but the possibility of sectarian conflict spreading throughout the Middle East reaching Afghanistan must not be negated.

THE ROLE OF USA

Iraq and Afghanistan were both weak at the time of US invasion. US fighting in Iraq lasted over eight years, and the war in Afghanistan has been occurring since twelve years. In, Iraq roughly 4500 US soldiers have been killed whereas in Afghanistan approximately 2000. The cost of the US war in Iraq was $810,564,775,996, which is 1.29 times the cost of the war in Afghanistan till date. The figure below shows a comparison between the survival rates of US military personnel during the main wars that it has fought in the recent past. Over the years, the survival rate has seemed to increase:

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ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

Another external factor playing a critical role is the rest of the international community. By 2004 itself, seven countries had withdrawn fighting capability from Iraq. Even the UN has refrained from intervention, except in times of utmost necessity. Afghanistan, on the other hand, has had several UN employees and international NGOs and organizations (UNDP, UNHR, UNESCO, UNHCR, WHO, EU Afghanistan, AIMS) in the area from the initial stages of conflict. Other countries have also tried to establish a stronghold in the area.

Post the withdrawal in Iraq, the only competition the US has had, although big, is Iran. However, the case will not be the same in Afghanistan. As soon as the US troops leave, several countries may try to plug the subsequent security vacuum to establish their supremacy in the oil-rich region and try to save the day. China and a few European countries have already been trying to do so over the years, but with limited success. The Middle East, till date, has been skeptical of trusting any country other than the US, so their reception of the rest of the international community shall excite significant controversy. It is logical to assume the entry of USAs successor in the region, if any, shall skew the already damaged political equilibrium and come with lasting economic implications on global trade. Internationally, there could be a possible growth in the perception that American power and influence are on the decline, which will be welcome to their competitors, but unwelcome to those who fear that the US will not be able to protect them anymore. Delegates, in light of the similarity and dissimilarity of the situation in each country, a comprehensive approach require practical consideration of these varied nuances while formulating any solution.

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The Arab Spring

Minor protests

Related crises outside the Arab world Protests and governmental changes

Civil war Major protests

Government overthrown

The main conflicts occurring under the Arab Spring are in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain. 1. In Tunisia, there was a 4 week long civil revolt, which included several demonstrations on the streets, which lead to the ousting of long-time President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, as well as a new democratic system of elections, which resulted in the formation of a coalition between the Islamist

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Ennahda Movement (main), the centre-left Congress for the Republic (junior partner) and the left leaning Ettakatol (junior partner). 2. The Egypt revolution of 2011 was characterized by demonstrations, marches, plaza occupations, riots, non-violent civil resistance, acts of civil disobedience and labor strikes. Millions of protesters from a variety of socio-economic and religious backgrounds demanded the overthrow of the regime of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. During the revolution, 846 were killed. After the revolution, over 600 died. 6,467 people were injured and approximately 12,000 were arrested. 3. The Libyan war that was fought for the majority of the year 2011. It was fought between forces loyal to Colonel Muammar Guddafi and those who wished to oust the government under him. The National Transition Council (NTC) took over interim control and was recognized by the UN as well as 105 other countries. 4. The Yemeni revolution lasted for a year. It called for the resignation of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Its chief cause is said to be the Yemeni governments proposal to modify the Constitution of Yemen. One candidate Presidential elections were held, and Abd Rabbuh Mansur alHadi was elected as the new President. The Military Forces underwent re-structuring following the sacking of several of its leaders.

5. The civil war in Syria started in March 2011 and is currently underway. It is an armed conflict between the Syrian Baath party government loyalists and those forces which seek to oust it. The chief cause was political repression. President Bashar al-Assad had assumed power in 2000 after his father Hafez (who had been the Ruler of Syria since 1970) died. Assad believed in the one-party rule system and kept the power concentrated within the hands of the ruling family of Syria. By late March 2013, the opposition activist group SOHR reported the number of children killed in the conflict had risen to 4,390, while at the same time 2,726 women were also killed. On 13 February 2013, the United Nations put out an estimate of 70,000 that had died in the war. 6. The uprising in Bahrain is currently ongoing. There have been several demonstrations, and a sustained campaign of civil resistance. It was caused by the discrimination meted out to Shias and the slow pace of democratization, and was inspired by concurrent regional protests. There have been 121 deaths in the uprising till date.

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7. In Jordan, protests have forced the government to abandon liberal reforms in favour of an unsustainable economic status quo. 8. In Algeria, they have highlighted the public's disaffection with the political process. 9. Another revolution in the Middle East is the Lebanese Alawite-Sunni Conflict, where fighting has mainly occurred between Lebanese opponents and the supporters of the Syrian government. While revolutions in favour of less autocratic regimes are shaking the political status quo in the region, the advent of fundamentalism rather than democracy is equally, if not more, likely in some countries.

Regional Instability
The political instability prevalent in the Middle East is attributed to a background of the region's recent history. The presence of precious oil is also seen as a chief cause of the particularly unstable political conditions in the Middle East. The first cause of instability is economic underdevelopment. One would think that the large amount of wealth gained through oil production would take care of this problem, but it hasnt. Although it has raised the standard of living in some parts, and even made a few families very wealthy, but shockingly, even the Gulf states which have a higher per capita income than the other States are undeveloped. They lack technical, skilled and even semiskilled labour. Their institutions are bureaucratic and inefficient. These economies depend entirely on a single commodity, and lack, therefore, the diversified productive structures capable of sustained

economic growth. The second reason is oil. Oil has not only been a source of wealth, but also a cause of corruption. Oil production has led to high expectations for fast, significant betterment, which the companies have sadly not been able to deliver. Oil has caused a considerable amount of social tension between those who have a lot and those who have very little, be it between different countries in the Middle East or even between various groups or factions within the same country. There is wide speculation that the various uprisings and revolutions in the Middle East will lead to a Ripple Effect. Just as when an object is dropped into water, ripples can be seen expanding across the water, the use of the term ripple effect in this context implies spreading of the impact of a political disturbance in one country. The resumption of sectarian battle in Iraq and on the outskirts of Syria can have a deadly ripple effect and spread to the other countries in the Middle East region (such as Lebanon), which are already facing high tension. The al-Qaeda organizations in Syria and Iraq have

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already proclaimed a joint emirate. This could also affect US interests. If such upsurge continues, it could lead to the ascent of anti-US forces such as the al-Qaeda and the Hezbollah. When such possibilities are viewed in context of the existing regional conflicts, such as that between Israel and Palestine (on the issues of mutual recognition, security, water rights & control of Jerusalem), the future prospects that await the Middle East are nothing short of absolute disaster.

RULE 9 Moderate and Un-moderated Caucus

CHINA
China, being the 2nd largest oil consumer and importer of the world, has close relations with the Middle East in both economic and political terms. China imports oil from the area, therefore stability in the region is important for China. China is also trying to regain its position as a major global player. Its relation with the Middle East is exclusive in the fact that it has long-standing relations with the Palestinians, and has developed good relations with Israel in the past 20 years as well. However, although China has good trade relations with Israel, there is a huge gap in terms of understanding the perceptions of the region. Several think that China is completely mercenary on its stand in the Middle East.

China is also unique among the foreign powers in the Middle East in that it simultaneously maintains largely positive relations with the regions four major ethnic groups: Arabs, Persians, Turks, and Jews. Part of this is due to Chinas foreign policy principle of non - interference in internal affairs. China made a surprising offer recently to referee peace in the Middle East. While China will not immediately contribute in a meaningful way to security in the region, it has been increasing its presence there, including deploying peacekeepers to U.N. contingents in Sudan and Lebanon. It is also allegedly laying the groundwork for a more robust regional military presence, establishing its so-called string of pearls network of naval bases in the Indian Ocean that spans from Asia to the Persian Gulf.

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China is trying to develop good political and economic relations with countries like Pakistan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and other Asian countries, to help further its intents with this naval network. Although on the face of the situation, it seems like a military strategy, in reality, it may be a far subtler concept. It is possibly a commercial, political, strategic as well as a military venture. Primary ports throughout the string can become commercial avenues and warehousing facilities for products transiting between the Middle East and Asia, where China wishes to be the dominant nation.

One of the main ports that will help China geopolitically and strategically is the $200 million port of Gwadar in Pakistan, close to the Iranian border and the entrance of the Persian Gulf. What is interesting about this port is that in 2011, when Pakistan publicly requested China to take over the port from Singapore, China publically refused. China already has the Pakistani port of Karachi in its possession. However, China has suddenly ostensibly shown interest in taking the next step in Gwadar, and taking over it. This could perceptibly be seen as China trying to further its oil and transport interests in the region. Upon US withdrawal of Afghanistan, this port would open up supply routes which would lead to Central Asia and ultimately China. China would greatly benefit from this, as it would ease its Malacca Dilemma (where China is too dependent on the Strait of Malacca to import hydrocarbons from the Middle East), and allow China to establish a listening post near the Persian Gulf.

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Chinas growing influence in the region is multidimensional encompassing economics, defence, diplomacy and soft power. It sees its interests best served by focusing on commerce and keeping a low profile. It may not take a front seat diplomatic role, but it will invest more in the region, subtly increasing its influence and involvement. Middle Eastern states are also increasingly drawing China into political and security issues, possibly leading China to play a more prominent political role in the region. As one of the worlds largest political and economic powers, what will happen if China manages to get hold of even some of the reigns in the Middle East? Moreover, can potential Chinese domination spur other Asian powers (such as Japan, Indonesia and South Korea) to pursue similar action?

IRAN
Iran is a non-Arab, non-Arabic speaking country, which is emerging as a pivot of Middle Eastern politics. It wishes to establish its influence from inside out, and one of its main points of interest for this purpose is Iraq. Many believe that Iran has vested interests in Iraq, and wants it to become a strategic partner and act as a bridge which will extend Iranian influence across the Middle East (especially through Syria and Lebanon). It seeks to ensure that Iraq no longer serves as a base for the US to further its interests, nor does it re-emerge as a threat to Iran itself. What will be the outcome of Iran trying to establish its dominance in the region? Economically, Iran was one of Iraqs largest trading partners during the US invasion. Southern Iraq is the only place outside of Iran where Iranian currency (the Rial) is used. During the reign of Husseins

Baathist Party, several powerful Shiite political parties made Iran their home base. Iran is very cognizant of the fact the Iraqis still harbour ill will for Iran, due to the Iran-Iraq war. However, Iran is now apparently taking advantage of the internal turmoil, and is supplying the Shiites in Iraq with weapons and goods to support them against the Sunnis. Iran also allegedly has had a strong interest in an insurgent takeover in Afghanistan, because this will delegitimize American efforts in the country, sow chaos within the system, and create doubt in the American publics mind as to the effectiveness of military intervention. There is also a nuclear facet of this interest. Iran has been hit by numerous economic sanctions targeting its banking and energy sectors over its nuclear energy program, which the United Nations and the U.S. have implemented. However, Iran has maintained its stand that such cession would

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interfere with its professed goal of peaceful nuclear energy development. Iran is now turning to its neighbour Iraq to help it dodge these international sanctions. In order to help, Iraq is smuggling oil and letting Tehran secretly move large amounts of cash through bank auctions.

CHINA AND IRANS RELATION

Given the prominence and pertinence of Irans alleged nuclear ambitions, coupled with Chinas welldeveloped association with Iran, one can learn about Chinas interests and its approach to international relations through this bilateral relationship. The relationship seems to revolve primarily around Chinas participation in large-scale infrastructure projects within the Islamic Republic, as well as Irans role in meeting Chinas oil requirements. Chinas trade with Iran expanded from $447 million in 1994 to $14.5 billion in 2006 to $29.4 billion in 2010.

RUSSIA
When the US invaded Iraq, Russia lost politically and economically, and when the US invaded Afghanistan, Russia lost big time geopolitically (due to its relative proximity to the nation.) Russia allegedly seeks to gain a lot from the withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russias relations with the Middle East have been very low-key. However, it still maintains ties with Palestine, and is a member of the so-called quartet of Middle East negotiators (which also includes the UN, EU and the US). It is trying to re-establish a military presence in the Mediterranean at the Syrian port, Tartus, and in 2008, offered Syria and Egypt nuclear power stations.

The southern fringe of Russia - from the Caspian to Outer Mongolia is peopled by millions of Muslims with strong cultural and racial ties with people over the border in Turkey, Iraq, Persia and Afghanistan. Russia is attempting to use this fringe as a cultural bridge between Russia and the Middle East. The US is perceivably starting to take a little less interest in the Middle East, so the Russians see the need for somebody else to be involved, and possibly become a large power player in the near future.

INDIA
India's strategic interests in the Middle East can be summarized as energy, citizens, trade, and religious ties. Today, India is interested in the Gulf as a source of oil and as an oil services market, and wishes to pursue opportunities in investment, sale of consumer goods, and tourism. Pakistan acts as

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an obstacle to Indian access to Central Asia; hence India has developed close ties with Iran. Iran also acts as a boost to Indias power base on the international stage. India has the worlds second largest Muslim population, and the second largest Shiite population, giving India strong cultural ties with Saudi Arabia and Iraq. India, being an IT superpower, also sees a profitable market for itself in the Gulf, where internet security is a pressing issue for both governments and businesses.

EUROPEAN UNION
The Middle East has been a region of major importance to the EU for decades. However, member states have struggled to fulfil their objectives of supporting peace, prosperity and good governance among their Southern neighbours. The current economic crisis, including the strains within the Eurozone, has added additional difficulties for the EU in its attempts to stabilise the Middle East. In an attempt to support economic development and good governance, the EU has developed extensive bilateral ties with most countries in the Middle East, and even offered Turkey the prospect of EU membership. The EU has also been heavily involved in the Middle East peace process: as the largest aid donor to the Palestinians. It has led efforts in nation-building, trained Palestinian security forces, and provided a border monitoring mission on the Egypt-Gaza border. Several European countries also have troops in the UNs monitoring mission on the Israeli- Lebanese border. At times, the EU has been criticised for responding too slowly to events, and for failing to show united strategic leadership. According to the EU, the roadmap is the key instrument for guiding the Middle East peace process. However, if the EUs economic model is seen as failing, the EUs reform agenda will be appear less attractive to the Middle East, making it harder for the EU to establish a stronghold.

PAKISTAN
Pakistan maintains close relations with the Islamic countries of the Middle East. These ties are important for religious, strategic, political, and economic reasons. Pakistan is also geopolitically very closely placed near the Middle East. It has its three holiest mosques in Mecca, Medinah and Jerusalem, apart from numerous other places of reverence in Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine and Egypt. The Arab countries provide fruitful employment to about 4 million Pakistanis. Its role in the Afghanistan war is well-known. Today, Pakistan is the alleged safe haven of the Taliban insurgency and its logistical supply line. However, Pakistan also serves as the major logistical line for the NATO forces in Afghanistan, as over 80% of the supplies that the forces depend on to survive arrive via

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Pakistan from the port of Karachi. Unless the alliance is willing to rely on either Russia or Iran for its logistics, geographically, it has no choice. Pakistan and the US also have good relations themselves. Pakistan has unusually strong leverage on both sides of the war.

SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa seeks to apply the principle of universality and evenhandedness to the situation in the Middle East, and pursue good relations with all the states in the area. It believes that only through negotiation will a long-lasting solution be achieved in the area. South Africa is also striving to realize the full potential of export markets in the region, including the sale of technology, and provide funding to member states.

LATIN AMERICA
Latin America and Middle Eastern countries increasingly share a common geopolitical agenda. Their goal is to promote a multi-polar world; not one, two or three hegemonic powers, but a multiplicity of global actors, so as to establish greater balance and fairness in international relations.

PROPOSED SOLUTIONS
The past action of the UN on the situation in the Middle East, primarily entails diplomatic talks, imposition of sanctions, finding a role for the international community, and if necessary, sending troops and organizations to help stabilize the region. In order to view past UN resolutions, visit this website below: http://www.un.org/apps/news/docs.asp?Topic=Middle%20East&Type=Resolution The following list is just a general set of ideas. Delegates, you must try and determine the viability and plausibility of these solutions, and try and work around their shortcomings. Remember that seemingly

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non-viable solutions can partially or even wholly be made into viable solutions. What will work is ultimately up to you to decide.

IRAQ
Political 1. Peace talks and mediation among sectarian factions by neutral third parties 2. Cooperation of nations like the US and China, to help contain Irans nuclear ambitions (as Iraq is one of its main defending allies) 3. Measures to prevent internal problems, and preventing the Sunni-Shiite conflict from spreading throughout the greater Middle East Economic 1 Promotion of organized professional parity 2 Development of commerce and trade (apart from oil resources) Social 1. Development of strong educational and foundational systems 2. Peace talks among neighbours

AFGHANISTAN
Short-term: 1. Occupation of Afghanistan by the United Nations (post-withdrawal). 2. Occupation of Afghanistan by a foreign nation These solutions are only short-term; as such situations only prolong dependency of the nation, and extend its time for stabilization. It is also important to develop long-term solutions, especially concerning withdrawal of the US troops.

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Long term: Political 1. Prompting of a diplomatic dialogue between insurgents and government representatives (explore ways in which this can be made possible) 2. Restructuring of the judicial system in Afghanistan, according to the need of the common people (to prevent regional turmoil post withdrawal) 3. Measures to protect the citizens from control of insurgents Social 1. Multilateral cooperation between their neighbour states within the Middle East 2. Building indigenous capacity of citizens of Afghanistan to help it to manage postwithdrawal 3. Improving literacy rates Economic 1. Development of trade and commerce with the Afghani government 2. Improvement of the economic and professional infrastructure Military 1. Reorganisation of the Afghan army 2. Development of sophisticated training procedures for the Afghan army

MIDDLE EAST (AS A WHOLE)

Role of the Middle East Policy Council The Middle East Policy Council is a non-profit educational organization. It was founded to expand public debate on the political and economic issues of the region and the policies devised with special reference to the US. Although this Council is centred on the USs interests, it is a wonderful platform for public debate and resolution, and attempts to analyze different situations in the Middle East from different angles. The Middle East Policy Council could be used as an archived resource by various

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international members to discuss issues specific to the Middle East on an international forum. It can serve as a neutral platform to promote regional cooperation and stabilization.

Focus of the Committee

The main focus of committee discussion is the restoration of stability in Iraq and establishment of stability in Afghanistan post the US withdrawal. Turmoil due to the Arab Spring, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Syrian civil war and other factors are also within the purview of the topic, however, they will primarily be discussed in the context of how they affect Iraq and Afghanistan. You may suggest measures to ameliorate the situation in these areas as a whole or specifically only if time permits. Many believe that finding a few concrete solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will help stabilize the Middle East, and take the first steps toward helping Iraq and Afghanistan.

Questions a Resolution Must Answer (QARMAs)

1. What can be done to resolve the political, economic, military and social situation in Iraq from a short term and long term perspective? 2. What can USA do to leave Afghanistan in a better position than it has left Iraq?

3. What can be done to resolve the potential political, economic, military and social situation in Afghanistan from a short term and long term perspective?

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4. How can Iraq and Afghanistan be protected from internal dangers, such as sectarian conflict and thriving insurgency?

5. What is the nature of the role that USA should play in ameliorating the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan? 6. Is foreign occupation in the best interests of Iraq and Afghanistan? How should foreign expressions of control be encouraged or thwarted?

7. How can tension within Iraq and Afghanistan be prevented from spreading in the region? 8. How can tension in the region surrounding Iraq and Afghanistan be prevented from spreading in the two countries?

BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. www.un.org 2. http://www.middleeast.about.com 3. www.isreview.org 4. www.mbc.edu 5. www.socialist.nu 6. www.ibtimes.com 7. www.naturalresources.house.gov 8. www.globalresearch.ca 9. www.theoildrum.com

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10. www.investopedia.com 11. http://www.isaf.nato.int/ 12. www.digitalcommons.mcmaster.ca 13. www.csg.org 14. www.projectvisa.com 15. www.cartoonstock.com 16. www.foreignpolicy.com 17. www.economist.com 18. www.blogs.reuters.com 19. http://www.meforum.org 20. http://www.cnn.com 21. http://www.thenation.com 22. www.forbiddenplanet.co.uk 23. http://www.nytimes.com 24. http://www.brookings.edu 25. http://costofwar.com/ 26. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news 27. http://www.aljazeera.com/news 28. http://unama.unmissions.org/ 29. http://www.globalpolicy.org 30. http://www.usmep.us/

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