Schwartz 1997 Two-Factor Model

Technical Document
Philipp Erb David L uthi Simon Otziger
December 18, 2011
Abstract
The purpose of this document is to give the formulas and relations needed to under-
stand the Schwartz two-factor commodity model (Schwartz, 1997). This includes parame-
ter estimation using the Kalman lter, pricing of European options as well as computation
of risk measures.
1 Introduction
This document describes the Schwartz two-factor model to the extent which is necessary to
understand the R package schwartz97. The two factors are the spot price of a commodity
together with its instantaneous convenience yield. It was introduced in Gibson and Schwartz
(1990) and extended in Schwartz (1997) for the pricing of futures contracts. Miltersen and
Schwartz (1998) and Hilliard and Reis (1998) presented equations for arbitrage free prices of
European options on commodity futures. In what follows we fully rely on the above mentioned
articles and state the corresponding formulas. In addition we derive the transition density of
the two state variables.
2 Model
The spot price of the commodity and the instantaneous convenience yield are assumed to
follow the joint stochastic process:
dS
t
= (
t
)S
t
dt +
S
S
t
dW
S
(1)
d
t
= (
t
)dt +

dW

, (2)
with Brownian motions W
S
and W

under the objective measure P and correlation dW

S
dW

=
dt.
Under the pricing measure Q the dynamics are of the form
dS
t
= (r
t
)S
t
dt +
S
S
t
d

W
S
(3)
d
t
= [(
t
) ]dt +

, . (4)
where the constant denotes the market price of convenience yield risk and

W
S
and

W

are
Q-Brownian motions. It may be handy to introduce a new mean-level for the convenience
1
yield process under Q
= /, (5)
which leads to the dynamics
d
t
= (
t
)dt +

. (6)
3 Distributions
3.1 Joint Distribution of State Variables
The log-spot X
t
= log(S
t
) and the convenience yield
t
are jointly normally distributed. The
transition density is
1
_
X
t

t
_
N
__

X
(t)

(t)
_
,
_

2
X
(t)
X
(t)

X
(t)
2

(t)
__
, (7)
with parameters

X
(t) = X
0
+
_

1
2

2
S

_
t + (
0
)
1 e
t

(8)

(t) = e
t

0
+
_
1 e
t
_
(9)

2
X
(t) =

2

2
_
1
2
_
1 e
2t
_

_
1 e
t
_
+t
_
+ 2

_
1 e
t

t
_
+
2
S
t (10)

(t) =

2

2
_
1 e
2t
_
(11)

X
(t) =
1

__

_
_
1 e
t
_
+

2

2
_
1 e
2t
_
_
. (12)
The mean-parameters given in (8) and (9) refer to the P-dynamics. To obtain the parameters
under Q one can simply replace by r and by dened in equation 5. Let the Q-parameters
be denoted by
X
(t) and

(t).
4 Futures Price
It is worth to mention that the futures and forward price coincide since in our model the
interest rate is assumed to be constant. In the rest of this document, the statements made
about futures contracts therefore also hold for forward contracts.
Let the futures price at time t with time to maturity = T t be G(S
t
,
t
, t, T). For
notational convenience we assume t = 0 in what follows. At time zero the futures price is
given by the Q-expectation of S
T
.
G(S
0
,
0
, 0, T) = E
Q
(S
T
) = exp
_

X
(T) +
1
2

2
X
(T)
_
(13)
= S
0
e
A(T)+B(T)
0
(14)
1
A derivation can be found in appendix A.
2
with
A(T) =
_
r +
1
2

2


S

_
T +
1
4

1 e
2T

3
+
_
+
S

_
1 e
T

2
,
(15)
B(T) =
1 e
T

. (16)
4.1 Distribution of Futures Prices
According to (13) the futures price follows a log-normal law. That is, at time zero the T-
futures price at time t has the following distribution under Q
2
:
log G(S
t
,
t
, t, T) N
_

G
(t, T),
2
G
(t, T)
_
, (17)
where

G
(t, T) =
X
(t) +A(T t) +B(T t)

(t) (18)

2
G
(t, T) =
2
X
(t) + 2B(T t)
X
(t) +B(T t)
2

(t). (19)
5 European Commodity Options
The fair price of a European call option on a commodity futures contract was derived as a
special case of more general models in Miltersen and Schwartz (1998) and Hilliard and Reis
(1998).
Here we give the formula for the two-factor model. In this setting, the price of a European
call option C at time zero with maturity t, exercise price K written on a commodity futures
contract with maturity T is given by
C
G
= E
Q
_
e
r t
(G(S
t
,
t
, t, T) K)
+

(20)
Since the futures price G(S
t
,
t
, t, T) is log-normally distributed we obtain a Black-Scholes
type formula for the call price C
G
.
C
G
= P(0, t) {G(0, T)(d
+
) K(d

)} (21)
with
d

=
log
G(0,T)
K

1
2

2
=
2
S
t +
2
S

_
1

e
T
_
e
t
1
_
t
_
+

2

2
_
t +
1
2
e
2T
_
e
2t
1
_

e
T
_
e
t
1
_
_
and being the standard Gaussian distribution function.
2
Note that the Q-dynamics is primarily interesting to value derivatives on the futures price. For simulation
studies and dynamic nancial analysis the real-world (P) dynamics is of relevance. To get the P-dynamics all
tilde-parameters have to be replaced by the ones without tilde.
3
The following put-call parity is established
C
G
P
G
= P(0, t) {G(0, t) K} . (22)
Thus, the price for a European put option P
G
at time zero with maturity t, exercise price K
written on a commodity futures contract with maturity T becomes
P
G
= P(0, t) {K(d

) G(0, T)(d
+
)} . (23)
Remark: For the special case when the exercise time t of the option and the maturity T
of the futures contract coincide, formulas (21) and (23) still hold. However, the options we
price for t = T are no longer options written on futures contracts with maturity T but rather
options with exercise time T, written on a commodity spot contract.
6 Parameter Estimation
This section demonstrates an elegant way of estimating the Schwartz two-factor model. That
is estimating the model parameters using the Kalman lter as in Schwartz (1997). Subsection
6.1 shows how the Schwartz two-factor model can be expressed in state space form. Once the
model has been cast in this form the likelihood can be computed and numerically maximized.
6.1 State Space Representation
Let y
t
denote a (n 1) vector of futures prices observed at date t and
t
denote the (2 1)
state vector of the spot price and the convenience yield. The state space representation of
the dynamics of y is given by the linear system of equations
y
t
= c
t
+Z
t

t
+G
t

t
(24)

t+1
= d
t
+T
t

t
+H
t

t
, (25)
where
t
N(0, I
2
) and
t
N(0, I
n
). G
t
and H
t
are assumed to be time-invariant. The
errors (innovations) in the measurement equation (24) are further assumed to be independent
in the implementation of this package
G
t
G

t
=
_
_
_
g
2
11
.
.
.
g
2
nn
_
_
_
. (26)
Using the functions A() and B() dened in (15) and (16) the components of the state space
representation (24) and (25) are

t+t
=
_
X
t+t

t+t
_
(27)
T
t
=
_
1
1

_
e
t
1
_
0 e
t
_
(28)
d
t
=
__

1
2

2
S

_
t +

_
1 e
t
_

_
1 e
t
_
_
(29)
H
t
H

t
=
_

2
X
(t)
X
(t)

X
(t)
2

(t)
_
(30)
4
y
t
=
_
_
_
log G
t
(1)
.
.
.
log G
t
(n)
_
_
_
Z
t
=
_
_
_
1 B(m
t
(1))
.
.
.
.
.
.
1 B(m
t
(n))
_
_
_
(31)
c
t
=
_
_
_
A(m
t
(1))
.
.
.
A(m
t
(n))
_
_
_
G
t
G

t
=
_
_
_
g
2
11
.
.
.
g
2
nn
_
_
_
(32)
where X
t
= log S
t
, t = t
k+1
t
k
and m
t
(i) denotes the remaining time to maturity of
the i-th closest to maturity futures G
t
(i).
5
A Derivation of the joint distribution
The joint dynamics of the commodity log-price X
t
= log S
t
and the spot convenience yield
t
reads in an orthogonal decomposition of (1) and (2)
dX
t
=
_

t

1
2

2
S
_
dt +
S
_
1
2
dW
1
t
+
S
dW
2
t
(33)
d
t
= (
t
)dt +

dW
2
t
, (34)
Equation (34) can be solved using the substitution

t
= e
t

t
and Itos lemma.

t
= e
t

0
+
_
1 e
t
_
+

e
t
_
t
0
e
u
dW
2
u
(35)
Plugging (35) into (33) gives
X
t
= X
0
+
_
t
0
dX
u
(36)
= X
0
+
_

1
2

2
S
_
t
_
t
0

u
du +
_
t
0

S
_
1
2
dW
1
u
+
_
t
0

S
dW
2
u
. (37)
Lets have a look at the integral
_
t
0

u
du.
_
t
0

u
du =
_
t
0
e
u

0
du +
_
t
0

_
1 e
u
_
du +
_
t
0

e
u
__
u
0
e
s
dW
2
s
_
du (38)
For the integral
_
t
0
e
u
__
u
0
e
s
dW
2
s
_
du we use Fubinis theorem to interchange the order of
integration:
_
t
0
__
u
0
e
u
e
s
dW
2
s
_
du =
_
t
0
__
t
s
e
u
e
s
du
_
dW
2
s
(39)
=
_
t
0
1

_
1 e
(ts)
_
dW
2
s
(40)
Plugging eq. (40) into eq. (38) and solving the Riemann integrals yields
_
t
0

u
du =

0

_
1 e
t
_
+t

_
1 e
t
_
+

_
t
0
1

_
1 e
(ts)
_
dW
2
s
. (41)
This leaves us with the following expression for X
t
:
X
t
= X
0
+
_

1
2

2
S

_
t + (
0
)
1 e
t

+
+
_
t
0

S
_
1
2
dW
1
u
+
_
t
0
_

S
+

_
e
(tu)
1
__
dW
2
u
. (42)
The log-spot X
t
and the convenience yield
t
are jointly normally distributed with expectations
E(X
t
) =
X
= X
0
+
_

1
2

2
S

_
t + (
0
)
1 e
t

(43)
E(
t
) =

= e
t

0
+
_
1 e
t
_
. (44)
6
The variance are obtained using expectation rules for Ito integrals and the Ito isometry.
var(X
t
) =
2
X
=

2

2
_
1
2
_
1 e
2t
_

_
1 e
t
_
+t
_
+ 2

_
1 e
t

t
_
+
2
S
t
(45)
var(
t
) =
2

=

2

2
_
1 e
2t
_
(46)
cov(X
t
,
t
) =
X
=
1

__

_
_
1 e
t
_
+

2

2
_
1 e
2t
_
_
(47)
References
Rajna Gibson and Eduardo S. Schwartz. Stochastic convenience yield and the pricing of oil
contingent claims. The Journal of Finance, 45(3):959976, 1990.
Jimmy E. Hilliard and Jorge Reis. Valuation of commodity futures and options under stochas-
tic convenience yields, interest rates, and jump diusions in the spot. Journal of Financial
and Quantitative Analysis, 33(1):6186, 1998.
Kristian R. Miltersen and Eduardo S. Schwartz. Pricing of options on commodity futures with
stochastic term structures of convenience yields and interest rates. Journal of Financial
and Quantitative Analysis, 33:3359, 1998.
Eduardo S. Schwartz. The stochastic behavior of commodity prices: Implications for valuation
and hedging. Journal of Finance, 52(3):923973, 1997.
7