National studies on recidivism

An inventory of large-scale recidivism research in 26 European countries

First draft July 2005

B.S.J. Wartna L.T.J. Nijssen WODC Ministry of Justice The Netherlands

Research and Documentation Centre

Contents 1 Introduction............................................................................................................................3 2 No studies, up till now.............................................................................................................3 3 National recidivism studies.....................................................................................................3 green = national recidivism study ............................................................................................5 red = no national recidivism study............................................................................................5 grey = non respons.....................................................................................................................5 4 Monitoring recidivism............................................................................................................6 5 e!inition and measurement o! recidivism............................................................................6 6 "t#er types o! data t#at are used............................................................................................$ $ Met#ods and measures used ..................................................................................................% Main pu&lications on larg'scale recidivism studies in (uropean countries...........................)

1 Introduction This report describes the current state of affairs on large-scale recidivism research in Europe. n 200! the "#$%& the research bureau of the 'inistry of Justice in the (etherlands made an inventory of the studies carried out in the European countries. !) countries received a *uestionnaire by e-mail. 2+ responded and sent in their replies., This means there-s a response rate of ++.. percent. 2 No studies, up till now n the follo/ing countries there hasn-t been a study on recidivism on a national level as yet0 Albania 1rmenia 6elgium %yprus %9ech 5epublic Greece 2atvia 2ithuania 8oland Portugal 3lova4 5epublic 74raine Tur4ey

n :reece there isn-t a national study& but there is a 8h$ on this topic in progress. n 1rmenia& 6elgium& %9ech 5epublic& 2atvia& 2ithuania& 74raine& 8oland& 8ortugal and 3lova4 5epublic& there do e;ist large-scale databases that could be used for this goal. n 1rmenia& 3lova4 5epublic& %9ech 5epublic and Tur4ey there are plans to initiate a national or large-scale study on recidivism. n other countries the reasons for not planning such a study& vary. 3ome respondents report lac4 of finances& others suppose resources are directed to other issues or mention a lac4 of e;perience in doing this type of research. 3 National recidivism studies n the follo/ing countries there are national studies on recidivism available0 Austria $enmar4 England < "ales Finland France :ermany celand The (etherlands Norway 3cotland 3/eden 3/it9erland

To give some idea of the magnitude of the studies carried out in these countries0 n :ermany the recidivism study covers all persons in respect of /hom a sentence /as passed in the reference year of ,))= or /ho /ere released follo/ing a prison sentence in that year >appro;imately , mln. offenders?@ n the latest study in England < "ales on Auvenile reconvinction they analysed the one-year reconviction rates for Auveniles >those ages ,0-,.? dealt /ith by the %riminal Justice 3ystem in 200!. These rates /ere compared /ith those recorded for 2000&
,

"e don-t have data from0 6ulgaria& Estonia& reland& taly& :eorgia& Bungary& %roatia& 'acedonia& 'alta& 5omania& 3lovenia and 3pain. (orthern reland seems to have carried out a national study ho/ever& considering a po/erpoint-presentation /e obtained regarding the prediction of overall reconviction rates.

200,& 2002 and ,)).. n England < "ales researchers used random samples in their study@ n France the recidivism study covers all persons. From all offenders >!5!)C2? in the entire population from ,))+ the recidivism rate after five years is ,05+25@ n (or/ay the sample si9es used for a study of long-time sentenced persons in ,)C0,)C) through ,))) /as C5,. 6eside this study 3tatistics (or/ay publishes a recidivism statistic every year. The measure is recidivism during a 5-year period. The sample si9e used for this measure is +5000@ n 1ustria the sample si9es for the recidivism study among all adults sentenced in 1ustria in ,)C! /as +).2+.. The sample si9e used in the same recidivism study& only among Auveniles is ..2)2@ n 3chotland the 3# currently covers all convictions in 3cottish courts e;cept for motoring and some other minor offences. There are Aust over ,&000&000 records on the 3# @ around .0&000 ne/ records are added each year@ n 3/eden a brief study of the total population of persons found guilty of criminal offences in ,))+ is based on t/o different populations. n the first part of the study the population is limited to persons found guilty of criminal offences in ,))+& roughly ,!0 000 persons. 8ersons /ith incomplete personal code number >social security number?& convicted for Aust one minor crime >sanction can only result in fines? or persons convicted in superior courts have been e;cluded from the population. The si9e of the population in the brief study is then appro;imately .) 000 persons >net? or appro;imately )5 000 persons >gross?. n the second part of the study the population is based on persons found guilty of criminal offences in a period of three years >,))+& ,)).& ,))C?& roughly !)0 000 persons. 1fter the e;clusion of some persons >see above? the si9e of the population arrives at appro;imately 2)! 500 persons >gross?@ n 3/it9erland the appro;imate sample si9es are ,5.000 a year on studies on first offenders@ the recisivism of released persons is C.000 a year. The sample si9e on studies of first offenders traffic offences is ..500@ 3ample si9es used in $enmar40 D 1ll persons released in the years of ,))+-,))) after serving an unconditional prison-sentence. D 1ll ne/ clients /ith suspended sentence /ithE/ithout supervision by the probation and after-care service in the years ,))+-,))). D 1ll persons granted pardon before imprisonment in the years ,))+-,)))@ n the (etherlands = maAor reports /ere published in 2005. From all offenders in the entire population from ,)). >,=+0))? the recidivism after t/o years among adults is !+25+ and among Auveniles is !,!..

Figure 1 Countries with and without national recidivism studies

green F national recidivism study red F no national recidivism study grey F non respons

4 Monitoring recidivism n five European countries there are proAects for monitoring recidivism rates over time. n England < "ales& 3cotland& France& the (etherlands and 3/eden >starting from 200=? some of the analyses are repeated every year. n :ermany there isn-t a monitor yet& but there are plans in this direction. n 1rmenia there are plans to measure recidivism annually& too. n (or/ay large databases are being built to produce statistics on recidivism& but it is not clear ho/ often they /ill be used. 5 Definition and measurement of recidivism 1s from this chapter this report /ill only give the measurements and definitions used in the studies from the European countries /here a national study on recidivism /as carried out2. Table 1 Definition and measurement of recidivism in national recidivism studies
(cotland (weden !ngland " #ales %&e Net&erlands (wit)erland $rance 'ustria German Denmar* day yes !years yes day yes years yes day no Norwa

Types of crime date used Self reported data on crimes committed Police records on reported crime Judicial records on prosecuted crime Records on court appearence Data on incarceration Observation period year 2 years ! years " years # years 6 years $ years Smallest time unit month Distinction of seriousness

year yes

day yes

day yes

"ith the e;ception of celand and Finland& because /e didn-t receive all the information about their studies on recidivism.

+ ,t&er t pes of data t&at are used Table 2 Data descri tion
%&e Net&erlands !ngland " #ales (wit)erland (cotland (weden $rance 'ustria German Denmar* Norwa

Demographic variables that are used Se% Age &ationality Previous criminal record District or region Types of offences that are being distinguished (iolence against the person Se%ual offenders )urglary Ro**ery +heft and handling ,raud and forgery -riminal damage Drug offences .ther offences Types of sanctions or disposals that are being distinguished Prison term -ommunity service order +raining order Pro*ation order ,ine Discretionary dismissal Settlement /other than financial0 -ustodial measure /entrustment order0 .ther sanction

'

n the follo/ing countries the data can be lin4ed to other sources of information >for instance& to employment information& or to information on other criminogenic needs& psychiatric information& etc.?0 England < "ales@ (or/ay@ 3/eden and the (etherlands. The main reasons /hy data sources can-t be matched in all the countries is because of data protection la/s and the amount of time >and costs? it ta4es to lin4 the data.

- Met&ods and measures used Table ! "ethods used to analyse or #uantify recidivism
%&e Net&erlands !ngland " #ales (wit)erland (cotland (weden $rance 'ustria German Denmar* Norwa

Methods used to analyse or quantify recidivism Ra1 percentages Ad2usted rates ,re3uencies of ne1 offences -orrelations 4ogistic regression -o% regression

n some European countries the data has already been used to generate statistical predictions. Especially England < "ales is far ahead on the other countries in predicting recidivism. 6ut also in the (etherlands and in :ermany the data has been used to generate statistical predictions. n 3chotland and 3/eden there are plans to initiate statistical predictions on recidivism.

Main pu.lications on larg/scale recidivism studies in !uropean countries 1ustria Pilgram$ A% $ie erste Gsterreichische 5Hc4fallstatisti4 ein 'ittel 9ur Evaluation regionaler 3trafenpoliti4 sterreichische Juristenzeitung, 46, 1991, 577-586 ,)), Pilgram$ A% "andel und regionale Iarianten der Jugendgerichtspra;is auf dem 8rHfstand der Gsterreichischen 5Hc4fallstatisti4 sterreichische Juristenzeitung& 49, 1994, 121-126 ,))= $enmar4 &yvsgaard$ '% The criminal career: the Danish longitu inal !tu " %ambridge 7niversity 8ress& 200! England < "ales (ome )ffice Ju#enile recon#iction: results $rom the 2%%& cohort' 2onden& 3tationary #ffice& 2005 (ome )ffice Ju#enile recon#iction: results $rom the 2%%1 an 2%%2 cohorts 2onden& 3tationary #ffice& 200= * icer$ &%$ A%Glic+sman ( ult recon#inction: results $rom the 2%%1 cohort 2ondon& Bome #ffice& 200= Prime$ ,% )rogres ma e against *ome +$$ice )u,lic !er#ice (greement Target 1% 2ondon& Bome #ffice& 2002 Finland "arttunen$ "%$ ,-P% .a Ta+ala (uorisorangaistus ,)). 200,. 7uden rangaistuslaAin arviointi +i-eus.oliittisen tut-imuslaito-sen /ul-aisu/a 192 2002 /a i-*e 0l0 T% Ehdollisen rangaistu4sen 4JyttG4errat Aa 4asautumat +i-eus.oliittisen tut-imuslaito-sen tut-imustie onanto/a 42

Belsin4i& ,))) &uiva.0rvi &% 5i4as ma4saa rahallaan& 4GyhJ sel4Jnahallaan- tut4imus sa44ovan4ien van4ilaurasta +i-eus 2%%&0&212 2: 1%2-118 200! 3uomen Iirallinen Tilasto >3IT? +i-eus 1995:8, 3usintari-ollisuus 1981 4 1991 Tilasto4es4us& Belsin4i& ,))5 France /ecomte$ C%$ )% Timbart 2es condamnKs de 200, en Ktat de rKcidive 5ulletin 6in$ormation statisti7ue e minist8re e la Justice 200! :ermany (ein1$ 2%$ ,% ,ehle 9:c-$all$orschung Ele4tra :mbB& (iedernhausen& 200= ,ehle$ ,%$ 2% (ein1$ P% *utterer 2egalbe/Jhrung nach strafrechtlichten 3antionen. Ein 4ommentierte 5Hc4fallstatisti4 5un erministerium er Justiz. 6erlin& 200! celand 'aumer$ 3%$ 4% 2right$ &% &ristinsdottir$ (%Gunnlaugsson %rime& 3hame& and 5ecidivism0 The %ase of celand 5ritish Journal o$ ;riminolog" 41, 4%-59 2002 the (etherlands 2artna$ '%$ N% Tollenaar$ "% 'lom 9eci i#e 1997' <en ci/$ermatig o#erzicht #an e stra$rechteli/-e reci i#e #an #ol=assenen en /eug ige a ers $en Baag& 6oom Juridische uitgevers& 2005 #nder9oe4 en beleid& nr. 22. 2artna$ '%$ N% Tollenaar$ A% 3ssers Door na e ge#angenis' <en ci/$ermatig o#erzicht #an e stra$rechteli/-e reci i#e on er e>ge etineer en $en Baag& 6oom Juridische uitgevers& 2005 #nder9oe4 en beleid& nr. 22C 2artna$ '%$ *% el (arbachi$ A% van der /aan

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Jong #ast' <en ci/$ermatig o#erzicht #an stra$rechteli/-e reci i#e #an e>-.u.illen #an /ustiti?le /eug inrichtingen $en Baag& 6oom Juridische uitgevers& 2005 #nder9oe4 en beleid& nr. 22) 2artna$ '%$ *% el (arbachi$ /% van der &naa $ / 5uiten ,ehan eling' <en ci/$ermatig o#erzicht #an e stra$rechteli/-e reci i#e #an e>ter,eschi--inggestel en $en Baag& 6oom Juridische uitgevers& 2005 #nder9oe4 en beleid& nr. 2!0 (or/ay '5dal @ et lange lA. 0@n the long term1 $epartement of Justice& (or/ay& ,))) '5dal$ Fridhov Bo#,ru s-arrierer og til,a-e$all 0;riminal careers an reci i#ism1 $epartement of Justice& (or/ay& ,))2 3cotland 5econvictions of offenders discharged from custody or given non-custodial sentences in ,)).& 3cotland !tatistical 5ulletin ;riminal Justice serie ;rJC2%%&C1 Edinburgh& 200! 3/eden Driminal#Er ens 9e o#isning om Fter$all 0The !=e ish )rison an )ro,ation !er#ice6s 9eci i#ism 9e.ort1 The (ational 8rison and 8robation 1dministration 3/it9erland Gie erholte stra$rechtliche Herurteilungen, 3ne con amnation .Inale en entraJne-t-elle 6autresK 6ern& 6F3E#F3& ,))5 9:c-$allraten, Tau> e rIci i#e 6ern& 6F3E#F3& ,)). !trassen#er-ehrs elin7uenz un 9:c-$all, DIlin7uance routi8re et rIci i#e, LeuchMtel 6ern& #F3E6F3& 2000

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