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The Sociological Study of Hope and the Economy: Introductory Remarks by Richard Swedberg Cornell University December 5, 200 a!"ope #apan 0

"ope Studies Con$erence, December %&'%(, 200 , )nstitute o$ Social Science, University o$ *o+yo

ABSTRACT *he topic o$ hope is currently not very much studied in the social sciences, and this means that the emerging discussion o$ economy and hope, in sociology and elsewhere, may still bene$it $rom a general discussion o$ hope- *his paper points to some use$ul re$lections on hope that can be $ound in the religious and philosophical literature- )t also attempts to summari.e what the social sciences have said so $ar about hope, especially economics, sociology and anthropology- ' )n the general and concluding section o$ the paper it is suggested that it is important to approach hope $rom a perspective which is such that it opens up this topic to the social sciences- /ne that has this 0uality is the $ollowing! hope is a wish for something to come true- *here are three elements to this description o$ hope! 1%2 the wish, 122 its $ocus on something specific, 132 and that the wish comes true- 4lements 122 and 132 have direct lin+s to the social world and there$ore present entries $or the social sciences5hat you wish $or depends on society, and so does the attempt to ma+e a wish be reali.ed- *he conse0uences o$ these ideas $or the sociological study o$ hope and the economy are brie$ly e6plored-

*he main aim o$ this paper is to con$ront two topics with one another that are usually +ept apart! hope and the economy- Since ) am a sociologist, ) will mainly try to do this $rom a sociological perspective, that is, with an eye towards society and the way that it in$luences things-% 7oth hope and the economy are part o$ the everyday world and $amiliar to everyone in the sense that we all have personal e6perience o$ them- *he media as well popular authors have also plenty to say on the two topics o$ economy and hope- *here e6ist many boo+s on how to start a success$ul business, get a career going and how to ma+e millions ' 8ust as there are boo+s on how to use hope to cure illnesses, conceive children and much more*he attention that academics have given to these two topics varies, on the other hand, 0uite a bit- 5hile economics today is a well established $ield o$ academic research that has its own 9obel Pri.e and many accomplishments to its name, very little academic wor+ has been carried out on the topic o$ hope- *his is where this paper comes into the picture, and its tas+ is primarily to discuss the concept o$ hope in relation to economic phenomena, and how it may ma+e its entry into social science research on the economy, especially sociology7ut even i$ ) have decided to $ocus on only one aspect o$ hope, or rather on its role in one set o$ human activities : the economy ' ) also $eel that it is important to ta+e a broad view o$ hope and discuss both what is meant by hope in general and what can be learned $rom the many di$$erent conte6ts in which it has $igured, academic or otherwise- *he main reason $or this is that the current stage o$ +nowledge about hope is unsure and not only in the social sciences- 5e do not +now e6actly what hope is and how and when it mani$ests itsel$- /nce there is more +nowledge about these issues, one may $ocus directly on one;s own area o$ research*his paper has two main parts- )n the $irst part, ) will essentially present and comment on some o$ what has been said about hope as well as hope in the economy, drawing on literature $rom as di$$erent $ields as philosophy, religion, economics, anthropology and <or comments and in$ormation ) than+ =abel 7ere.in, Christiane Cunnar, 9icolas 4ilbaum, "iro+a.u =iya.a+i, 5endelin Reich and "ans >etterberg- *he $irst version o$ this paper was written in #uly 2005- ) have omitted accounts o$ the contributions to "iro+a.u =iya.a+i and Richard Swedberg 1eds-2, Hope and the Economy since this volume has not yet been published- *he authors include anthropologists as well as sociologists, such as =abel 7ere.in, ?u8i @enda, #ane @uyer, 9ao+i Ausaga, #oycelyn Pi6ley, Bnnelise Riles and Aatherine Cerderey%

F sociology- *he ambition here is to cast the net wide, in order to catch as many $ishes as possible- *his will be $ollowed by a second and concluding part, in which ) will discuss what this catch may mean $or a more precise understanding o$ hope as well as $or research on hope and the economy, $rom a sociological perspectiveStarting $rom an 4veryday Ciew o$ "ope Clear de$initions o$ any word or concept are di$$icult to come by, $or a number o$ reasons, and hope is no e6ception- Bs 8ust mentioned, there is currently little e6act +nowledge o$ what precisely constitutes hope- /ne nonetheless has to begin somewhere, and ) will start $rom a common, non'academic de$inition<or such a de$inition o$ what DhopeE means in 4nglish, one may consult The Oxford English Dictionary, and the latest edition provides the $ollowing main de$inition! hope means Dto entertain expectation of something desired, to look (mentally) with expectationsE 1/4D %(&(!3 2- Carious e6amples $rom te6ts which contain the word DhopeE, dating all the way bac+ to the (00s, accompany this de$inition*he two main terms that are used to describe hope in this de$inition are expectation and desire- 7oth o$ them share with hope that they are $orward'loo+ing and concerned with something that has not yet occurred- 7ut there also are di$$erences46pectations di$$er, $or e6ample, $rom hope in at least one respect! what you e6pect in the $uture does not necessarily have to be positive- *he li+elihood that some $uture event will indeed ta+e place is also higher when it comes to an e6pectation than in the case o$ hope, since it is common to hope $or things that will not ta+e place- *here is $inally a rational and cognitive element to the notion o$ e6pectation, especially as used in social science, that cannot be $ound in hopeDesire has similarly some things in common with hope, and it has been argued that the two are closely related- 7oth, $or e6ample, may be deeply submerged in a person and hard to capture with the help o$ standard social science methods- 7ut it can also be argued that there are di$$erences between the two- *here is, $or one thing, a more direct 0uality to desire than to hope and sometimes also a physical 0uality to it- 5hile it comes easy, $or e6ample, to spea+ o$ hope and religion, this is less the case with desire and religion*here also e6ist some additional meanings to hope, which are less important according to The Oxford English Dictionary than Dto entertain e6pectation o$ something desiredE- *hese are! 1%2 Dto trust, have con$idenceE and 122 Dto e6pect with desire, or to desire

5 with e6pectationE- *he latter o$ these two, the reader is told, is mainly used in poetic conte6ts and is illustrated by the well'+nown 7iblical phrase Dto hope against hopeE 1a$ter Rom- iv!%&2"ope, as suggested by these additional de$initions, also needs to be situated in relation to trust- 5hile hope is not a social science concept today, trust is- 5hile both are oriented to the $uture or, more precisely, to a positive state in the $uture, there nonetheless also e6ist some di$$erences- /ne is that in trust you e6pect something to happen and would be surprised i$ this is not the case- 5hen you hope, in contrast, there is much less certainty that what is hoped $or will ta+e place- 5ith hope, reali.ation is less o$ a possibility than in the case o$ trust5hat meaning o$ hope is best suited $or the social sciencesG *here are di$$erent ways to answer this 0uestion- *he word hope has been used in a multitude o$ di$$erent conte6ts over the centuries and ac0uired many meanings in this process- )nstead o$ ma+ing an argument at this point o$ the paper $or one o$ these as the most suitable candidate, ) have chosen to present and discuss several o$ its di$$erent meanings- *his way more o$ the richness and comple6ity o$ the concept o$ hope can become part o$ the discussionConceived along these lines, the ne6t $ew pages o$ this introduction will serve as an introduction both to the concept o$ hope in general and as a social science concept- ) have also made a special e$$ort to touch on some related issues- =y way o$ proceeding will be to present and discuss the way that hope has been used and analysed in religion, philosophy and the social sciences- Bmong the social sciences ) will pay special attention to sociology, anthropology and economics*he account o$ the role o$ hope in religion, philosophy and the social sciences will be $ragmentary and incomplete, since there are $ew good studies on these topics- *he reader who also wants to e6plore the role o$ hope in the arts, everyday li$e and academic disciplines other than sociology, anthropology and economics, is re$erred to the literature in a $ootnote and to the re$erence list at the end o$ this introduction-2 "ope in Religion and Philosophy )n the literature on hope it is o$ten noted that 8ust as there e6ists a tradition o$ political hope, there also e6ists a tradition o$ religious hope- Re$erences are usually made to 4rnst 7loch;s Principle of Hope can, among other things, be described as an idiosyncratic encyclopaedia when it comes to hope, including its role in everyday li$e- <or literature and the arts, see e-g- BndrH =alrau6, an!s Hope and #-=-5- *urner, "allacies of Hope- <or hope in everyday li$e, see e-g- Studs *er+el, Hope Dies #ast$
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L the role o$ hope in the 9ew *estament, especially to the writings o$ Paul and his $amous statement in the $irst Corinthian Ietter about $aith, hope and love- *he religious tradition o$ hope sometimes has messianic overtones- )t is also e6plicitly normative, which means that what you hope $or is the same as what is good*he +ey passage in Paul;s Corinthian Ietter, written around year 55, reads as $ollows! DSo $aith, hope, love abide, these three, but the greatest o$ these is loveE 1% Cor%3!%32- *his should not be interpreted as a statement that love is superior to hope- *he two are rather part o$ each other, as an earlier passage in the same letter ma+es clear! DIove bears all things, believes all things, hopes all things, endures all thingsE 1% Cor- %3! , emphasis added2*he three so'called theological virtues o$ $aith, hope and love, are o$ten contrasted in the religious literature to the $our cardinal virtues o$ prudence, 8ustice, temperance and $ortitude 1e-g- B0uinas %(FF, "ousen 200F2- *he cardinal virtues, which trace their origin to @ree+ philosophy, are characteri.ed by the $act that they can be learned, aided by grace- <aith, hope and love, in contrast, cannot be learned, but must be poured by @od directly into the soul o$ the believer7esides the $amous 0uote $rom the Corinthian Ietter, the 7ible also contains many other important re$erences to hope- Bccording to one o$ these, hope is hidden! D<or we are saved by hope! but hope that is seen is not hope! $or what a man seeth, why doth he yet hope $orG 7ut i$ we hope $or what we see not, then do we with patience wait $or itE 1Rom&!2F'252- *he e6pression Das long as there is li$e, there is hopeE probably derives $rom the $ollowing passage! D7ut he who is 8oined with all the living has hope, $or a living dog is better than a dead lionE 14ccl- (!F2- *hat hope is central to Christianity as a doctrine is also clear $rom Paul;s description o$ @od as Dthe @od o$ hopeE 1Rom- %5!%325hile the literature on the role o$ hope in Christian religious thought is considerable, this is not the case with philosophy- Bccording to a recent article, Dit is a scandal that a philosophical theme JhopeK that is so central to how we should live our lives, and that has received so much attention in the arts, has gone virtually unnoticed in the philosophical community itsel$E 17ovens %(((!LL 2- 7ut even i$ this is true, in the $ew cases where philosophers have paid attention to hope, the result is o$ much interest since a number o$ interesting ideas have been generated- B $amous e6ample is Ieibni.; ideas on optimism, a term that became popular in the %&th century- Bccording to Ieibni., the world in which we live is the best o$ all possible worlds, even i$ we ta+e the e6istence o$ evil into account*he term optimism comes $rom the Iatin optimus or best, and is closely related to the concept o$ hope- /ptimism and hope both loo+ to the $uture, which they cast in positive

colors- 7ut there also e6ist some di$$erences between the two- 5hile the opposite o$ optimism is pessimism, the opposite o$ hope is $ear or hopelessness- Bnd while hope is sometimes de$ined as an emotion or as sharing some $eatures with emotions, optimism is perhaps better described as a disposition or a set o$ opinionsBnother di$$erence between optimism and hope comes out i$ we loo+ at the $ate o$ philosophical optimism in the %&th century- *he $amous earth0ua+e in Iisbon in % 55 delivered a heavy blow to the optimism o$ the 4nlightenment, as evidenced by the reaction o$ Coltaire- )n %andide, or Optimism 1% 5(2 the ideas o$ optimism are $amously satiri.ed- 5hen Dr- Pangloss $or e6ample argues that the e6istence o$ the nose shows that nature has wisely provided us with a good place $or our eyeglasses, it is Ieibni.;s optmism that Coltaire has in mind*hat the criti0ue o$ optimism did not necessarily e6tend to the concept o$ hope can be illustrated by the wor+ o$ )mmanuel Aant- )n %riti&ue of Pure 'eason 1% &%2 Aant says that reason is interested in the $ollowing three 0uestions! %- 5hat can ) +nowG 2- 5hat ought ) to doG 3- (hat may ) hopeG 1Aant J% &%K %(L5!L35, emphasis added2 )n e6plicating each o$ these three 0uestions, Aant emphasi.es that Dall hoping is directed towards happinessE 1i*id-, p- L3L2- *he reader o$ Aant;s te6t on perpetual peace is also told that Dthere are good grounds $or hoping that we shall succeedE 1Aant J% (5K %( 0!%302*here is an e6istential tone to Aant;s $ormulation o$ the three 0uestions in %riti&ue of Pure 'eason, and one can also $ind many interesting ideas on hope in the wor+s o$ the e6istentialists- Aier+egaard, $or e6ample, discusses hope in connection with memory and repetition- Bccording to 'epetition 1%&F32, memory means to repeat bac+wards, and repetition to remember $orwards- "ope, Aier+egaard says, is neither the same as memory nor the same as repetition- )nstead it means to do something novel and brittle! Dhope is a new out$it, untried, sti$$ and shining, but which you have never used so you don;t really +now whether you will loo+ good in it or i$ it will $itE 1Aier+egaard J%&F3K %((5!L2*here is also a danger to hope, Aier+egaard warns in Either+Or, and this is the case when hope gets to set the goal rather than gently drive the action- D)t is indeed beauti$ul to see a person put out to sea with the $air wind o$ hope, one may utili.e the chance to let onesel$ be towed away, but one ought never have it on board one;s cra$t, least o$ all as pilot, $or it is an untrustworthy shipmasterE 1Aier+egaard %(& !2(2'(32-

& Bs to 20th century e6istentialists, several o$ these have shown interest in hope, such as Blbert Camus, @abriel =arcel and #ean'Paul Sartre- The yth of ,isophys 1%(F22 by Camus is o$ special interest in this conte6t because o$ its sharp argument against hope- Bccording to Camus, modern man is tempted to give in to hope, in the $orm o$ a religion or doctrine that assigns meaning to the world and hides its essential meaninglessness or absurd 0uality- *o hope, in other words, means to give in to an inauthentic impulse and to $alsi$y one;s relationship to the world- Ii$e is absurd, and this is a truth that should be $aced- D*he absurd is the contrary o$ hopeE, and Dthe re$usal to hopeE is essential to Dabsurd manE 1Camus %(55!FF, 2L2Sartre;s ideas on hope came to their most concentrated e6pression in a series o$ interviews that were published in %(&0 and have been collected in a volume entitled Hope -ow- Sartre here says that he did not thin+ in terms o$ hope when he wrote his ma8or wor+ in e6istentialism, .eing and -othingness 1%(F32- 9onetheless, since the publication o$ this wor+ he has increasingly come to $eel that Deveryone lives with hopeE and that Dhope is part o$ manE 1Sartre %((L!33, 5L27y the phrase that hope is part o$ man, Sartre does not so much mean that people are hope$ul or that they invest some o$ their actions with hope- "is argument is instead that a person;s acts are always set within a broader goal : and since this goal is hope$ul, it so'to'spea+ $rames and in$uses all other acts with its hope- /r in Sartre;s words! Deveryone has a goal beyond the practical or theoretical goals o$ the moment, matters o$ politics, say, or education, beyond all such matters, everyone has a goal that ) would call, i$ you wish, transcendent or absolute, and all practical goals have meaning only in relation to this goalE 1i*id-, p- 5L2*he $oremost philosophical wor+ on hope : and still the only ma8or philosophical wor+ on this topic : is The Principle of Hope by 4rnst 7loch- *his 3'volume wor+ was mainly written during %(3&'%(F , when 7loch lived in the United States- )ts impact on modern philosophy has been minor, partly because 7loch insisted on $ollowing his own course and ignored mainstream philosophy, and partly because o$ 7loch;s sympathy $or the Soviet Union and 4ast @ermany7loch has a broad and multi'$acetted concept o$ hope and argues that it can sometimes be an emotion and at other times more o$ a cognitive act- /ne can learn to hope, he says, and hope can also be taught- *here is Dgenuine hopeE as well as D$raudulent hopeE 17loch %(&L!52- "ope, as is shown in great detail in The Principle of Hope, can be

( $ound in many aspects o$ human e6istence ' in art, music, detective stories, daydreams, utopias and much moreBn important theme in 7loch is that hope is ontologically directed towards the $uture and what has not yet come into being : what he calls the 9ot'?et 1-och+-icht2*his "egelian sounding term should not detract $rom the $act that there is a concrete 0uality to hope in 7loch;s version- D46pectation, hope, intention towards possibility that has still not become! this is not only a basic $eature o$ human consciousness, but, concretely corrected and grasped, a basic determination within ob8ective reality as a wholeE 17loch %(&L! 2Bccording to The Principle of Hope, philosophy has utterly $ailed to deal with hope, and one important reason $or this is that it has e6clusively been preoccupied with the past- 9ot only does philosophy loo+ bac+wards, it also $ails to see the element o$ hope in the past- Ii+e <reud, 7loch says, philosophy sees as its tas+ to read the $uture $rom what has already happened, and not in terms o$ what will or may happen- )t is caught in the past, it does not see hope=ar6ism, according to 7loch, represents a watershed in the history o$ philosophy as well as in the history o$ hope- 5hat =ar6 has brought to hope is $irst and $oremost the idea that hope can be reali.ed in everyday reality- D7ecoming happy was always what was sought a$ter in the dream o$ a better li$e, and only =ar6ism can institute itE, we read in The Principle of Hope 17loch %(&L!% 2- 7loch re$ers to his type o$ =ar6ism as Dcreative =ar6ismE, and it is clear that there e6ist important parallels between his ideas on this score and the political tradition o$ messianic'revolutionary hope"ope in the Social Sciences #ust as with philosophy, very little attention has been paid to hope in the social sciences- 5hatever little there is, is also $ragmentary in nature- *his will be illustrated in the coming pages, where especially sociology and anthropology will be discussed- ) will also comment on a $ew items by economists- 9othing will be said about psychology e6cept that the e$$orts by C- Richard Snyder to introduce the topic o$ hope into psychology has been met with considerable resistance 1Snyder %((F, 2000, 200%2- )t has especially been argued that Snyder has $ailed to integrate the study o$ hope with e6isting research traditions in psychology 1e-g- Psychological )n0uiry 20022*o begin with sociology, there is $irst o$ all the classics- 9ow and then in his analyses, *oc0ueville re$ers, $or e6ample, to hope- *he most $amous e6ample o$ this is

%0 lin+ed to the so'called *oc0ueville 4$$ect and can be $ound in The Old 'egime and the 'e/olution$ 5hat the *oc0ueville 4$$ect re$ers to is that towards the end o$ the %&th century some re$orms were carried out in <rance, and it was precisely in the areas where these were the most success$ul, that also the revolution received most support $rom the population- *he reason $or this, *oc0ueville suggests, is that when things improve, people;s hope that things can get better is awa+ened 1*oc0ueville %((&! 23L2"ope also plays an important role in *oc0ueville;s class analysis- /ne e$$ect o$ the increasing levelling o$ society, according to Democracy in 0merica, is that people begin to hope $or material things that they never could have hoped $or in the old class society- *he poor in the United States, *oc0ueville noted on his trip to this country in %&3%'%&32, had a Dhope and longingE $or the things that the rich were consuming 1*oc0ueville 200F!L%&2- Democracy bra+es down the barriers between people, and this allows hope to e6tend in new directionsBnother e6ample o$ hope and class in *oc0ueville;s wor+ is the $ollowing/ne o$ the ma8or reasons that <rance, but not 4ngland, had a violent revolution has to do with the way that their respective aristocracies acted- *he 4nglish aristocracy held out the promise that a $ew success$ul individuals one day could 8oin its ran+s, while the <rench aristocracy did not : with resentment and hatred towards the <rench aristocracy as a result*he point was not so much whether people actually did 8oin the aristocracy, *oc0ueville says, but that they $elt that the chance was there : the hope 1e-g- *oc0ueville %&L2!22%25hile *oc0ueville was an observer that posterity has labelled a sociologist, =a6 5eber was more o$ a pro$essional sociologist- Bnd 8ust as with *oc0ueville, one can only $ind scattered re$erences to hope in his wor+- Bn entrepreneur, to ta+e one e6ample, has the DhopeE to ma+e more money than i$ he 8ust let the money in the ban+ 15eber (FL!( 2*he two areas in his wor+ where 5eber uses hope the most $re0uently, are in his political sociology and in his sociology o$ religion- 5eber especially re$ers to hope when he spea+s o$ the early wor+ing class movement which was inspired by =ar6- The %ommunist anifesto, he says, is su$$used by hope, 8ust as hope underpins =ar6;s idea that socialism will one day come into being through the collapse o$ capitalism 15eber %((F!2&&, 2(F25eber also re$ers to hope in his discussion o$ the attitude o$ the poor to religion, and here he says that hope constitutes a Drobust motiveE 15eber %(FL! (2- 5hat motivates those who are Dnegatively privilegedE in their attitude to religion, is Dhope $or

%% salvationE and Dhope $or compensationE 1e-g- 5eber %(FL!2 3, %( &!% 22- Charismatic leaders may also channel the hope o$ people and tend to appear in situations o$ despair4mile Dur+heim was much more interested in the general phenomenon o$ hope than either 5eber or *oc0ueville, and he also addresses it in an original manner- *he place where he does this is primarily in The Di/ision of #a*or in ,ociety 1%&(32, more precisely in his discussion o$ the role o$ happiness $or the evolution o$ society 19eves 20032- Dur+heim $irmly resists the idea o$ the utilitarians that happiness represents the goal o$ man+ind and that there is an increase o$ happiness in recent history- /n the contrary, he says, many countries have e6perienced an important increase in suicide during the %(th century- 9onetheless, there is plenty o$ hope around, and room $or a reasoned optimism5hat ma+es Dur+heim;s argument interesting $rom the perspective in this paper, is especially how he accounts $or the origin o$ hope- "ope can in principle be seen as either a biological product or a social product- Dur+heim leans towards the latter alternative and suggests that the reason why people $eel hope$ul, is that they have good reasons $or believing that things will turn out well in the end- "ope, in brie$, may be an emotion, but li+e all emotions it is also a product o$ society- *he central passage in The Di/ision of #a*or in ,ociety reads as $ollows! J"opeK has not miraculously $allen $rom heaven into our hearts, but must have, li+e all the sentiments, been $ormed under the in$luence o$ the $acts- *hus i$ men have learnt to hope, i$ under the blows o$ mis$ortune, they have grown accustomed to turn their ga.e towards the $uture and to e6pect $rom it compensation $or their present su$$ering, it is because they have perceived that such compensation occurred $re0uently, that the human organism was both too $le6ible and too resisting to be easily brought down, that the moments when mis$ortune gained the day were e6ceptional and that generally the balance ended up by being re'established- 1Dur+heim J%&(3K %(&F!%(02 )s it then hope that stops people $rom committing suicideG Dur+heim hesitates to answer Myes;, even i$ he doesn;t rule out the possibility that there is a lin+ between the instinct o$ sel$'preservation and hope- "e writes! Conse0uently, whatever the role o$ hope in the genesis o$ the instinct o$ sel$' preservation, that instinct is a convincing testimony to the relative goodness o$ li$e- <or the same reason, where that instinct loses its power or generality we may be sure that li$e itsel$ loses its attractiveness, that mis$ortune increases, either because the causes o$ su$$ering multiply or because the capacity $or resistance on the part o$ the individual diminishes- 1i*id-2

%2 Blso modern sociology is incomplete and $ragmentary in its analysis o$ hope#ust li+e classical sociology, modern sociology seems to pre$er to discuss concepts that are in some way related to the concept o$ hope, rather than hope itsel$ : such as trust, e6pectations, aspirations, drive and the li+e- *his is also true $or the growing branch called the sociology o$ emotions that sometimes touches on hope but pre$ers to $ocus on the ma8or and more important emotions 1e-g- Aemper %(& !2&3, 7arbalet %((&!%502Bn interesting and rare attempt to turn hope into a use$ul concept in modern sociology can be $ound in a lecture by Ral$ Dahrendor$ entitled D)ne0uality, "ope, and ProgressE 1%( L2- *he author begins by ma+ing a sharp distinction between Dutopian hopeE and Drealistic hopeE- *he $ormer he describes by pointing to the early writings by =ar6, =arcuse;s notion o$ a multi'dimensional man and "abermas; pro8ect o$ human communication- DRealistic hopeE, in contrast, re$ers to what is concrete and possible to achieve- Dahrendor$ also terms it De$$ective hopeE- Dahrendor$;s main thesis is that social ine0uality serves as an important incentive $or people to better their condition by awa+ening realistic or e$$ective hope in them<rom the perspective o$ hope and the economy, Dahrendor$;s enumeration o$ situations in which hope plays an important role in energi.ing people into action is o$ interest- D"opeNbased on e6perienceE, he says, can be awa+ened by Dthe villa one has seen on a Sunday morning wal+, the television $ilm about s+iing holidays, or even about the rich man;s trip to =onte Carlo, the advertisement o$ a new sports'carE 1Dahrendor$ %( L!%F2- "e continues, such hope motivates people to change their conditions, or their lives, in a variety o$ ways- )t may be a stimulus $or the individual to move, either geographically, or in the scales o$ social status- )t may be a challenge $or solitary action, in associations, trade unions, political groups, in order to gain shorter wor+ing hours $or all members- )t may be international action, the demand $or more voting rights in the )nternational =onetary <und, or membership in /4CD- 1i*id-2 *he reason why realistic hope is also e$$ective hope is that it constitutes a very practical +ind o$ hope, ready to be translated into reality! Nin all cases such hope is coupled with demands $or change which are capable o$ implementation, speci$ic demands, promotion or a salary increase, the $orty'eight hour or $orty'hour wee+, new uses $or special drawing rights, and the li+e- 5hether every change brought about under social conditions in which action is spar+ed o$$ by realistic

%3 hope is progress, may be open to doubt, but i$ there is to be any progress at all, such hope is one o$ its ingredients- 1i*id-2 5hile Dahrendor$ in his discussion o$ realistic hope comes very close to supplying the reader with an operational de$inition o$ hope, no such de$inition is given/ne o$ our colleagues, however, who heard about our interest in hope and the economy, has +indly supplied us with such a de$inition, and we o$$er it as part o$ the discussion o$ hope as a social science concept- "ans >etterberg, a well'+nown e6pert on survey research, wrote to us a propos hope that he very much would li+e to have the $ollowing 0uestion as+ed on an annual basis in countries all over the world! DDo you thin+ that the children who are growing up today will have it better or worse than you have it, when they are your ageGE 1>etterberg 20052- Perhaps this can be labelled pro8ected hope or, better, hope $or others)n turning to the issue o$ survey research, it can be mentioned that the very $irst attempt to include 0uestions about hope in survey research may well have ta+en place in the early %(00s in @ermany- )n %(%2 Bdolph Ievenstein, a sel$'educated wor+er and an ac0uaintance o$ =a6 5eber, published an attitude survey in a boo+ entitled The (orking %lass 1uestion 1Ievenstein %(%2, $or discussion, see /berschall %(L5!(F'%0L2- /ne o$ the 0uestions that was as+ed read E5hat hopes and wishes do you haveGE, and it turned out to be very success$ul- /ne 22'year old miner answered, $or e6ample, as $ollows! E) have one desire $or mysel$ and the rest o$ man+ind- *hat she be able to parta+e very soon in the beauty o$ the world- *he world has enough o$ it to ma+e all man+ind happy and peace$ulE 1/berschall %(L5!%0F2=entioning this early e6ample o$ a survey, also gives me an e6cuse to note that one o$ the $oremost theoreticians o$ chance and probability, Charles Peirce, has some intriguing ideas about the role o$ hope in a world ruled by chance- *he human community, Peirce appears to argue, inspires Ehope or JaK calm and cheer$ul wishE, since it always will outlast the individual 1see in this conte6t "ac+ing %((0!2%%'%22- 9o'one, as $ar as ) +now, have e6plored in detail the role that hope plays in Peirce;s philosophy>etterberg;s approach to hope : survey research where you as+ someone to compare the situation today to that o$ tomorrow : points to a whole genre o$ e6isting research- *o cite one e6ample among many, the surveys on DoptimismE and DpessimismE by @allup )nternational- *his organi.ation typically carries out research in some $i$ty'si6ty countries simultaneously, and tries to establish i$ their inhabitants are optimistic or pessimistic- *his is measured with the help o$ 0uestions on the theme o$ Ddo you thin+ ne6t

%F year will be better than this yearGE *here are also 0uestions that attempt to loo+ at the economic dimensions o$ this theme, such as the economic prospect in general, whether unemployment will increase and the li+e 1e-g- @allup )nternational 20052*his type o$ research leads in a natural way to the 0uestion i$ there e6ists a relationship between the idea o$ hope in the economy and surveys o$ consumer con$idence*hese surveys are very common in contemporary society, where they are closely $ollowed by politicians and business people- Surveys o$ consumer con$idence trace their origin to the wor+ o$ @eorge Aatano, in particular to his )nde6 o$ Consumer Sentiment $rom %(52*he two most cited surveys o$ consumer con$idence in the United States today are the Consumer Con$idence )nde6 1produced by the Con$erence 7oard2 and the )nde6 o$ Consumer Sentiment 1produced at the University o$ =ichigan2- *he 0uestions that are as+ed in this type o$ surveys, include the $ollowing! DIoo+ing ahead, do you thin+ a year $rom now you 1and your $amily living there2 will be better o$$ $inancially, worse o$$ or 8ust about the same as nowGE and D*urning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you thin+ that during the ne6t %2 months we;ll have good times $inancially or bad times or whatGE 15eiss 20032- Results $rom surveys o$ consumer con$idence indicate that young people have more con$idence in the $uture than old people, and well'o$$ people more than poor people*he notion o$ consumer con$idence overlaps to some e6tent with that o$ hope, but there also e6ist signi$icant di$$erences between the two- 7oth are, $or e6ample, directed at the $uture and that things may be better in the $uture- *he most important di$$erence is that while surveys o$ consumer con$idence are interested in establishing what will happen, hope is more about what one wants or wishes to happen- )t is true that what will happen and what one wants to happen may coincide- 7ut even when this is the case, there is a comple6ity to the notion o$ hope that goes well beyond the standard measure o$ consumer con$idence5hat represents so $ar the most impressive and important attempt to approach the topic o$ hope through survey research has been made in #apan at the )nstitute o$ Social Science at *o+yo University, in connection with the pro8ect o$ "opology 12005'2*he bac+ground to this research is the sense among the public in #apan since a $ew years bac+ that the country lac+s hope, hence the interest among some o$ its social scientists $or this topic*he main survey by this institute, underta+en in 200L, $ound that the ma8ority o$ the country;s population 1roughly &0 O2 had hope and that the ma8ority o$ these 1some

%5 L0 O2 also believed that they would be able to reali.e this hope within a reasonable amount o$ time 1@enda 200 2- People, it turned out, hoped $or di$$erent things, and $or males hope was typically attached to wor+- 9ot only individuals but also households were researched, and wealthy households had more hope than poor households?uri @anda : the main researcher behind this wor+ : concludes that the data does not allow you to determine i$ hope has actually declined in #apan or not- Since #apanese society, however, is moving in the direction o$ a society with more old people, with more unemployment, and certain other $eatures, and since these $actors 1old age, unemployment and a $ew other items2 have been shown to be associated with low levels o$ hope, #apan may very well be heading in the direction o$ less hope*o $ully evaluate the situation in #apan, it can be added, one would also need comparative data, something that does not seem to e6ist today- 5hile the @allup )nternational Survey $indings $or 2005 is based on very di$$erent 0uestions than those that were used in #apan, one o$ their $indings should nonetheless be mentioned- *his is that the level o$ optimism varied 0uite a bit between regions as well as between countries 13%O and 2LO respectively2- Does hope, one wonders, vary e0ually muchG /ne also wonders what the results would have been in #apan i$ 0ualitative research methods had been used, such as in depth interviews, participant observation and the li+e- 5ould these be able to answer more subtle 0uestions that are hard to get at with the help o$ survey researchG 5ould they, $or e6ample, validate the approach o$ someone li+e sociologist >ygmund 7aumanG Bccording to 7auman, one can $ind hope in many situations where people have no ob8ective reason whatsoever to be hope$ul- D"ope is stronger than all imaginable Mtestimony o$ reality;E 17auman 200F!L 2- D"ope needs no proo$E, he also says- D"ope is valid and real even i$ groundlessE 1i*id-2- )n brie$, the relationship o$ hope to empirical reality is comple6 and raises 0uestions that may re0uire many di$$erent types o$ methods to e6plore)$ we move on $rom sociology to anthropology, it would appear that e0ually little attention has been paid to hope in this branch o$ the social sciences- Bccording to an attempt to trace the history o$ research on hope in early and classical anthropology, there only e6ists one wor+ on this topic! "aith, Hope, and %harity in Primiti/e 'eligion 1%(322 by Robert Ranulph =arrett 1Crapan.ano 2003a, b2- *his, however, does not mean that anthropologists have $ound no re$erences to hope in the many cultures they have researched over the years- Bccording to the "uman Relations Brea <iles, studies o$ nearly all the cultures that currently ma+e up this giant data base 1%FL o$ %L52 contain re$erences to the word

%L DhopeE- 3 7ut hope itsel$, it should be emphasi.ed, is not a searchable category in "RB<, and this is an indication that anthropology does not see hope as a topic o$ importance*he situation is somewhat di$$erent in modern anthropology- /ne o$ the leaders in the emerging interest in hope among anthropologists is Cincent Crapan.ano, the author o$ an important essay on hope $rom the perspective o$ what he calls literary'philosophical anthropology- )n this essay, Crapan.ano primarily attempts to theori.e hope in terms o$ desire- *he two are not identical, he says, but related- 5hen hope is mobili.ed, it becomes energi.ed and close to desire- "ope that is not mobili.ed, in contrast, is more di$$icult to understand, and it also resists interpretation : li+e hope in general ultimately doesCrapan.ano approaches the sub8ect o$ hope by presenting and commenting on a number o$ philosophers and social scientists who have written on hope- *wo o$ these vignettes are o$ special interest to the theme o$ hope and the economy- )n one o$ these Crapan.ano reinterprets the $amous cargo cult $rom the perspective o$ hope, emphasi.ing that the cult members did not 8ust sit around and hope, but actively engaged in various activities to reali.e their desires- 5hat they wanted, Crapan.ano suggests, was not only certain ob8ects, but also the world view and the vision o$ which these ob8ects were part : a bit li+e modern consumers do not only want the goods in the stores but also what these signi$y in terms o$ status and dreams*he second e6ample draws on the author;s $ieldwor+ in South B$rica, 8ust be$ore the Bpartheid system came to an end- Studying the white people, Carpan.ano $ound that they had 0uite a bit o$ hope : hope to retain their privileges, their li$estyles and their property- 7ut he also $ound that they were peculiarly inactive- *hey were waiting, Carpan.ano concludes, and their hope was a negative one- )t did not help them to $ind a solution to their problems, it was a $orm o$ paraly2ing hope*he second leader in the attempt to turn the study o$ hope into a theme in modern anthropology is "iro+a.u =iya.a+i- "e is, $irst o$ all, the author o$ The ethod of Hope, which can be described as an ethnographic study o$ a community o$ dispossessed <i8ians- 5hat especially interests =iya.a+i is the role that hope has played in the attempts by the Suavo people over the years to regain their ancestral lands, but also in some o$ their other activities such as gi$t'giving and business ventures- 5hile most analysts o$ hope whose wor+ has been discussed so $ar, have approached hope as a topic, and attempted to Bll in all the "RB< Collection contains material on 3 0 di$$erent cultural, ethnic religious and national groups in the world- Since hope is not captured by one o$ "SRB<;s searchable categories, however, and since a word search can only be made on the electronically available material, ) have restricted my comment to the %L5 cultures3

% e6plain the conditions under which it becomes stronger or wea+er, =iya.a+i argues that hope should primarily be studied as a method- Drawing on the wor+s o$ 7loch, 7en8amin and Rorty, he says that any other way o$ proceeding would be to negate the nature o$ hopeBn important aspect o$ =iya.a+i;s approach to hope as a method can be $ound in his notion o$ repetition or replication- D"opeE, he says, Dcannot be argued $or, it can only be replicatedE 1=iya.a+i 200F!%%02- Bn e6ample o$ replication in The ethod of Hope can be $ound in the analysis o$ the attempt by the Suavo people to start a real estate pro8ect in the %((0s, a venture that they initially approached with deep pessimism because o$ their earlier $ailures with this type o$ enterprise- /ne o$ their religious leaders, however, told the Suavo people that they now had @od on their side, something which made them see things in a new and hope$ul light- )n =iya.a+i;s terminology, hope was thereby replicated and trans$erred $rom the area o$ religious thought to the area o$ real estateSimilarly : and this is how The ethod of Hope ends : =iya.a+i wants to replicate or trans$er hope onto the area o$ anthropological +nowledge itsel$*he main 0uestion that according to =iya.a+i drives his research : How do we keep hope ali/e3 ' also in$orms his second ma8or study, which deals with Dthe economy o$ hopeE 1=iya.a+i $orthcoming2- Using a ma8or #apanese securities $irm as his research site, =iya.a+i shows how some derivative traders; hope$ul vision in$uses not only their daily economic activities but also their lives more generally- *his study represents =iya.a+i;s most important study o$ hope and economy so $ar)$ we now turn to the science o$ economics, it soon becomes clear that economists have paid even less attention to hope than sociologists and anthropologists- Bn important reason $or this is no doubt connected to the hold that homo economicus has had on mainstream economics, $rom the end o$ the %(th century till today- 4conomic man is e0uipped with superior cognitive s+ills but he has no emotions- "e is never surprised or disappointed, and he never e6periences hope or $ear- "e can, however, calculate probabilities and ta+e ris+s, and a ris+'ta+er can to some e6tent be labelled an optimist, 8ust as someone who is ris+ averse can be called a pessimist4ven i$ it is possible to analyse some aspects o$ hope with the help o$ concepts such as ris+'ta+ing and rational e6pectations, the $iction o$ economic man severely restricts the analysis o$ hope- *his becomes clear i$ one compares the minimal space allotted to hope in microeconomics or rational choice theory to the one that can be $ound in early economics- )n The (ealth of -ations 1% L2, $or e6ample, Bdam Smith touches on the role o$ hope in economic li$e in both a comple6 and realistic way- "e notes,

%& among other things, that the hope o$ a better li$e motivates people to wor+ harder : what he calls Dthe com$ortable hope Jo$ the average personK o$ bettering his conditionsE 1Smith J% LK %( L!(&25hat may well be Bdam Smith;s main contribution to the analysis o$ the role o$ hope in economic li$e has to do with a di$$erent topic, namely his thesis that hope ma+es people overestimate their chances o$ ma+ing a pro$it and underestimate their chances o$ ma+ing a loss- *here is plenty o$ Dthe presumptuous hope o$ successE and Dthe hope o$ good luc+E, he says, but not enough D$ear o$ mis$ortuneE 1Smith J% LK %( L!%2L2- Smith notes that the e6istence o$ lottery illustrates Dthe presumptuous hope o$ successE, and that it is this type o$ hope that ma+es adventurers enter into business and young people choose pro$essions $or which they have little talent- )t is the same Dromantic hopeE, Smith adds, that ma+es young men enlist in the army at the beginning o$ a war and disregard the chance o$ getting +illed 1i*id-2Bs already noted, it is to a great e6tent the popularity o$ the idea o$ economic man that has prevented economists $rom addressing the role o$ hope in economic li$e beyond such notions as rational e6pectations, ris+'ta+ing and the li+e- Some unorthodo6 economists, however, have tried a di$$erent approach to economic analysis and, in doing so, they have occasionally touched on the topic o$ hope- /ne o$ these is Aenneth 7oulding, the author o$ an interesting article entitled DSources o$ Reasonable "ope $or the <utureE 1%(&F2*he main argument in 7oulding;s article is that there e6ist many reasons $or being pessimistic about the $uture, such as shrin+ing natural resources, the population e6plosion and the prospect o$ nuclear war- 7ut there also e6ist grounds $or optimism, according to 7oulding 1who has a tendency to e0uate hope with optimism2- D"ope is a comple6 conceptE, he says, Dbut in all its various meanings it implies optimism about the $utureE 17oulding %(&F!22%2- *hat hope is related to optimism is an opinion that the reader o$ this paper has already encountered, but 7oulding adds a new twist to the idea o$ optimism, namely that o$ probability- "e writes! "ope, $ortunately, does not depend on certainty, or people would certainly not buy lottery tic+ets- )t rests on an optimistic image o$ the $uture which is perceived as having positive probability 1greater than .ero2- 17oulding %(&F!2232 )t should be noted that 7oulding does not to draw a distinction between uncertainty and ris+, something that ma+es his concept o$ hope less comple6 than it has to be- 5hile uncertainty is characteristic o$ a situation in which it is not possible to assign any

%( probability at all to an event, this is always possible in situations that involve ris+, according to the well'+nown argument by <ran+ Anight 1J%(2%K %(&52Bnother unorthodo6 economist who has been interested in the role o$ hope in the economy is Blbert /- "irschman, author o$ 0 .ias for Hope 1%( %2 and several other studies that are relevant in this conte6t- )n one o$ these studies "irschman suggests, $or e6ample, that $ew entrepreneurs reali.e how many obstacles they will have to overcome in order to be success$ul, and that they would never have started their businesses i$ they had +nown this- 5hat drives economic progress, in other words, is o$ten hope or what "irschman calls Dthe helping handE 1"irschman %(L 2Bnother theme in "irschman;s wor+ that is directly related to hope, is what he terms DpossibilismE- *he main idea behind this term is that much social science research emphasi.es how unli+ely some countries are to succeed, be it because o$ structural reasons, because they have not have the prere0uisites $or a ta+e'o$$ or something else- Bccording to "irschman, this type o$ analysis can be destructive, and social scientists should instead try to assist these countries in being success$ul- "e writes! so what are the many countries Jthat are in bad shapeK supposed to doG @et themselves a di$$erent +ind o$ eliteG /r $orgo any attempt to bring about changeG 5hat is at $ault here, in my opinion, is the traditional probabilistic approach o$ the sociologist1"irschman %(&L!% 325hen "irschman critici.es the $aulty probabilistic concept o$ the sociologist he does not mean that this type o$ concept can be remedied with the help o$ more sophisticated mathematics or model'building- 5hat is missing in sociology is the insight that is much more common among historians, he says, namely that unli+ely events do happen, and that this is something that needs to be better understood! in the present instance Jo$ sociological researchK this consists o$ the discovery o$ paths, however narrow, leading to an outcome that appears to be $oreclosed on the basis o$ probabilistic reasoning alone- "istory and historians are usually in charge o$ ma+ing such discoveries that contradict their own Mlessons;- 7ut occasionally sociologists could come upon them also, i$ only they were attentive to the intersections o$ their numerous probabilistic statements- 1"irschman %(&L!% 3' F2 5hile the doctrine o$ homo economicus is still strong in mainstream economics, there also e6ist some recent challenges- /ne o$ the most interesting o$ these, not least $rom the perspective o$ hope, is that o$ behavioral economics 1e-g- Camerer et al 200F2- *his type o$ economics draws on psychology and e6periments as a way o$

20 challenging mainstream economics, and especially one o$ its ma8or $indings is o$ relevance to the study o$ hope- *his is that people tend to overestimate their chances to succeed and underestimate their chances to $ail- *his type o$ research, which is +nown as overcon$idence theory, is sometimes summari.ed with the phrase Dsadder but wiserE, it also brings us bac+ to the argument o$ Bdam Smith in The (ealth of -ations/ne study that can be used to illustrate overcon$idence theory is D*he 7orrower;s Curse! /ptimism, <inance, and 4ntrepreneurshipE by David de =e.a and Clive Southey 1%((L2- Drawing on literature in psychology as well as in behavioral economics, a model is here presented that is based on Dthe psychology o$ optimismE but that also has some a$$inity with the idea o$ entrepreneurs as ris+ ta+ers in rational choice analysisBccording to the authors, their model success$ully accounts $or the $act that small business owners badly overestimate their chances to succeed 1de =e.a and Southey %((L2- *hey also emphasi.e that this result has important policy implicationsDiscussion4 Trying to 5et %loser to Hope and an 6nderstanding of )ts 'ole in the Economy B$ter having loo+ed at various attempts to understand what hope is, the time has come to try to pull together the di$$erent threads and suggest what may be a $ruit$ul way o$ approaching hope with the help o$ the social sciences- <irst o$ all, it is clear that none o$ the social sciences has paid much attention to the phenomenon o$ hope- 5hile one can $ind some attention in sociology, anthropology and psychology, there is still a long way to go be$ore studies o$ hope constitute Dnormal scienceE in these disciplines and there is a generally accepted notion o$ what hope stands $orRelated to this $act, it should be emphasi.ed, is that there is a no need $or a general theory o$ hope at this stage- Such an e$$ort would be premature- 5ays towards a clari$ication o$ what is meant by hope is more help$ul, and especially i$ it allows us to establish some entry points $or the social sciencesSuch clari$ication may start with the everyday notion o$ hope- Bs already mentioned, one such notion can be $ound in The Oxford English Dictionary where hope is described as a way Dto entertain expectation of something desired, to look (mentally) with expectationsE 1/4D %(&(!3 2- *he central role that the notion o$ De6pectationE plays in this de$inition, however, ma+es it less use$ul when discussing hope $rom a broad social science perspective- *his has to do with the way that the term e6pectation is currently used in economics, which is very $ar $rom its everyday meaning- )n modern economics

2% e6pectation is closely associated with rational choice and $ormal calculability : two categories that do not go very well with hope*he way that hope will be approached in this paper is as $ollows, and, again, the reason $or choosing this particular angle has to do with the purpose o$ opening up hope to the social sciences- =y point o$ departure is a simple description o$ hope as the wish for something to come true- *here are several elements to this de$inition, but $or the moment their unity and overall meaning should be stressed! one does not wish $or something abstract, but $or something precise, and one also wants this wish $or something precise to be reali.ed- 5hether it ultimately can or will be reali.ed or not, is not +nown, but this does not stop the actor $rom hoping that it will- "ope, in short, is characteri.ed by a certain type o$ uncertainty, but not because it cannot be calculated $or cognitive reasons 1<ran+ Anight;s type o$ uncertainty2- *he actor is not interested in calculating the uncertainty*here are three distinct elements to the description o$ hope that has 8ust been presented, and each o$ them deserves attention! 1%2 the wish 122 for something 132 to *ecome true 1see <ig- %2- *hat hope can be called a wish reminds us o$ the $act that while hope is not seen as a sentiment, it is o$ten seen as being close to a sentiment- )ts cognitive element is low, even i$ not absent- /ne feels hope, and one is usually also aware o$ its e6istence- 5hether there is a biological dimension to hope, as there is to emotions, is hard to say- Bnthropological data, as noted earlier, indicates that hope can be $ound in most culturesP<ig- % about herePF *hat hope is hope for something means that hope typically does not e6ist by itsel$, but rather attaches itsel$ to something else- *his gives it a certain illusive and secondary 0uality that may also help to e6plain why hope has not attracted as much attention as related phenomena which so to spea+ stand on their own legs, such as $ear, anger or shame5hile it may or may not be the case that the core o$ hope is social 1we currently do not +now2, it does get lin+ed to the social element through its attachment to something special- )n one type o$ society 1or group2, you can hope $or items a, * and c, and in another $or d, e and f- *he social sciences, in other words, can be brought into the analysis o$ hope at precisely this point*he third and last element o$ hope is that hope includes the wish $or something to *ecome true$ *his means, $or one thing, that hope has a goal to which it
F

<or <ig- %, see the end o$ this paper-

22 points- *he $ormulation ) have used is Dto become trueE rather than Dto be reali.edE, since hope does not have the direct and instrumental 0uality o$ the latter e6pression- "ope, it can be added, is always rooted in a person- )t can remain in the person or it can reach out through some action $rom the person into reality)n the case that hope is translated into action in the world, outside the person, there is another opening $or the social sciences, because something can usually not become true unless there is assistance or acceptance $rom other people- )$ one;s environment, $or e6ample, is very positive to something, there is more o$ a chance that this something will be hoped $or, and that it will become trueStill, hope is always anchored in the person and cannot be reduced to, say, a simple recipe $or how to do something- "ope may also not inspire to action and thereby remain a wish $or something to become true- )$ this is the case : i$ hope is passive rather than active ' the person places hersel$ in the position to wait $or something to happen to her- "ence the a$$inity between waiting and hoping, with the danger that i$ one waits to long, hope may vanish and the element o$ waiting may overta+e the person-5 )$ we return to active hope, hope that wishes to be reali.ed outside the person, it would seem that certain types o$ hope and ways o$ reali.ing these may become so ingrained or characteristic $or certain groups and societies that they can be described as social facts in Dur+heim;s sense- *hey constitute, in brie$, the DnormalE way to hope, and divergencies $rom them are accompanied by a sense o$ coercion and possibly also by sanctions $rom other people- People may, $or e6ample, hope $or material success o$ a certain type, $or one;s children to be success$ul in a certain way, and so onSimilarly, in case the actor tries to reali.e his or her hope, the 0uestion arises i$ the means to go about this reali.ation constitute a social $act or not- B social $act in this case would mean that there e6ists ways that are commonly used to reali.e a goal, as opposed to new and untried ways- *he chances that hope will be reali.ed is presumably larger i$ the means that are used have already been tried out and are commonly used7ut there may be more to hope and its social dimension than so- Aier+egaard spea+s o$ hope as $air wind $illing the sails and pushing the wish $or something to its goal7ut he also ma+es the interesting comment that hope can so to spea+ overta+e its ob8ect and lessen its chances o$ being reali.ed- *his is where hope goes $rom being help$ul to preventing its ob8ect $rom coming into being and sometimes even destroying it- Bgain, a
5

*hese thought are inspired by the wor+ o$ 9ao+i Ausaga-

23 door is opened up to the social since it is easy to imagine situations where the individual succumbs to over'enthusiasm precisely because o$ what other people do/ne can illustrate some o$ the view o$ hope that has been advanced in this paper with the help o$ a diagram with two dimensions- /ne denotes whether hope stays within the person or whether the person will also try to reali.e it in reality 1passi/e+acti/e2*he other dimension attempts to capture the 0uality that hope is use$ul in some doses ' to get the wishing going ' but that it also can become so strong that it overwhelms the normal un$olding o$ hope and prevents it $rom becoming true 1infusing+o/ertaking, see <ig- 22P<ig- 2 about herePL *he transition into reality is a di$$icult one, and this is where realistic hope separates out $rom unrealistic hope- Ultimately, it is only possible to decide which is what post factum- 7ut there also e6ist realities that represent impossible obstacles to hope, and i$ the actor, driven by a very strong wish, still tries to reali.e his or her hope, disappointment is in store- *here may be social facts that go counter to the hope 1such as that no'one may marry someone o$ the same se62, 8ust as there may be natural facts 1such as the law o$ gravity that prevents man $rom $lying2$ 7e$ore discussing what this approach to hope implies $or the social science study o$ hope and the economy, something also needs to be said about hopelessness- *he notion o$ hopelessness is o$ten mentioned in discussions o$ hope, but it is not theori.ed in its own right- )t is typically seen as the opposite o$ hope, sometimes as $ear and sometimes as the lac+ o$ hope=y own sense is that this way o$ loo+ing at hopelessness may be wrong"opelessness, ) would argue, is a phenomenon in its own right and as important to study as hope- )t is not simply the opposite or negation o$ hope but can throw new light on the nature o$ hope- =ore precisely, while hope would seem to always attach itsel$ to something, hopelessness indicates that hope may be more general than so- People with no hope, it is o$ten noted, are people who $eel hopeless in general and not 8ust without hope in relation to some special item or need"opelessness gives associations to Sartre;s notion o$ hope as in$using a person;s ma8or enterprise in li$e rather than 8ust some speci$ic pro8ect- "ope, $rom this perspective, may be understood as a capacity that people have- )t also seems to indicate that this capacity is brittle, and, once destroyed, that something important is missing in the individualL

<or <ig- 2, see the end o$ this paper-

2F Bgain, we have an entry $or the social sciences here, to the e6tent that the destruction o$ the capacity $or hope comes $rom the outside- )t can, $or e6ample, have been caused by some speci$ic event, and relevant events may vary $rom society to societyPerhaps also the opposite is true, namely that the capacity to hope can be strengthened under certain circumstances- Can it also be restored, once it has been destroyedG 5e do not +now)$ one applies this view o$ hope to the economy, one can get a sense $or some o$ the topics that can be analy.ed with the help o$ the social sciences- Bs to the element o$ wish, it would seem that people wish $or economic things, among other reasons, because o$ scarcity, there is 8ust not enough o$ everything $or everybody- )t would also seem that people primarily wish $or material matters when it comes to the economy- *his would mean that wishes o$ this type are more aimed towards the outer world than towards the inner world- )nterestingly enough, however, this may not always be the case- People have plenty o$ economic dreams and wishes about the economy 1e-g- =iya.a+i $orthcoming24lement Q 2 : that hope always means a wish $or something : ta+es on a special meaning in the world o$ the economy- /ne may wish $or a $ortune, a good 8ob, success in business and so on- Bs earlier mentioned, this element has a direct lin+ to the social in the sense that di$$erent groups, societies and so on have di$$erent economic items to which hope can be attached- )n a $eudal society, the peasant may hope $or a non' rapacious lord, in a capitalist society $or a high demand $or the crop, and so onSimilarly, 4lement Q 3 : the wish $or something to *ecome true : is played out according to its own logic in the world o$ the economy- )$ the person +nows what to do, the chance o$ reali.ing the hope will grow- "ope can also get the person going and be the helping hand that "irschman spea+s about- 7ut i$ hope overta+es the action to reali.e the hope, the entrepreneur may go wrong, end up as a speculator or a rec+less investor 1see <ig- 32P<ig- 3 about hereP 5ays o$ hoping that involves the economy may $inally also congeal into social $acts that people see as DnormalE and DnaturalE, unless they deviate $rom them 1in which case they are e6perienced as coercive2- )n the case o$ the economy one may, $or e6ample, hope $or a good 8ob 1which allows the individual to reali.e himsel$Phersel$2, $or ma+ing money by starting your own $irm, and so on-

<or <ig- 3, see the end o$ this paper-

25 #ust li+e the ob8ect o$ hope may be a social $act, this is also the case with the means that are used $or its reali.ation- 4conomic means, in brie$, may ac0uire the e6emplary or obligatory 0uality that comes with a social $act- Bgain, using uncommon means will presumably lower the chances $or the hope to be reali.ed7ut lower chances $or reali.ation may always not be a handicap in the area o$ the economy, it can also translate into a large pro$it i$ the e$$ort is success$ul- Bn argument o$ this type can, $or e6ample, be $ound in Schumpeter;s theory o$ entrepreneurship- )n general, the topic o$ hope and entrepreneurship may be closely related 1e-g- Anudsen and Swedberg 200&2<inally, hopelessness can have a paraly.ing e$$ect, spreading $rom the area o$ the economy to the rest o$ a person;s li$e- )n the $amous study $rom the %(30s o$ the unemployed in =arienthal, such a situation is discussed- *he authors divide the unemployed families into three categories 1#ahoda, Ia.ars$eld and >eisel 1J%(33K %( %2*here are $amilies that are Dunbro+enE, DresignedE and Dbro+enE- )n the authors; terminology, the unbro+en have hope, the resigned have no hope, and the bro+en $eel hopeless*he purpose o$ the discussion in the second part o$ this paper has not been to develop a general theory o$ hope, and then apply it to the economy- )nstead its purpose has been to loo+ at hope in a way that opens it up $or social science study, especially the sociological study o$ hope and the economy- ) have indicated two places where hope has direct lin+s to society! you hope $or something and $or this something to *ecome true"opleessness also appears to be caused by social $orces- Bll o$ these cases, ) argue, invite to $urther discussion, re$lection and research 1see <ig- F2-

2L Re$erences and Suggestions $or <urther Reading *his bibliography contains both the re$erences to the items mentioned in the te6t and re$erences to a $ew additional wor+s on hope, to illustrate general statements in the te6t about writings on hope in di$$erent conte6ts- *here currently does not e6ist a bibliography o$ writings on hope, but many o$ the boo+s and articles in this list contain use$ul re$erences to the role o$ hope in economics, philosophy, sociology and so onB0uinas, Saint *homas- %(FF- .asic (ritings of ,aint Thomas 0&uinas- 2 vols- 9ew ?or+! Random "ouseBugustine, Saint- %(53- ,aint 0ugustine!s Enchiridion4 or, "aith, Hope and %harity- 5ashington, DC! Regneryanual to #aurentius %oncerning

7arbalet, #ac+- %((&- Emotion, ,ocial theory, and ,ocial ,tructure- Cambrdige! Cambridge University Press7auman, >ygmund- 200F- D*o "ope is "umanE, Tikkum %(,L!LF' 7echtel, @ordon- %(( - DB Dual'Source )ndicator o$ Consumer Con$idenceE, ,ociological ethodology 2 !2(('32F7en8amin, Bndrew- %(( - Present Hope4 Philosophy, 0rchitecture, 7udaism- Iondon! Routledge7erger, Peter- %(L(- 0 'umor of 0ngels4 odern ,ociety and the 'edisco/ery of the ,upernatural- 9ew ?or+! Doubleday R Company7loch, 4rnst- %(&L- The Principle of Hope- 3 vols- Cambridge, =B! *he =)* Press7oulding, Aenneth- %(&F- DSources o$ Reasonable "ope $or the <utureE, 0merican Economic 'e/iew F,2!22%'257ovens, Iuc- %(((- D*he Calue o$ "opeE, Philosophy and Phenomenological ,tudies 5(,3!LL '&%7re.nit., Shlomo- %(((- D*he 4$$ect o$ "ope and Pain *olerance8, ,ocial 'esearch LL,2!L2('527urridge, Aenelm- %((5Pressam*u4 0 elanesian illenium- Princeton! Princeton University

Camerer, Colin et al 1eds2- 200F- 0d/ances in .eha/ioral Economics- Princeton! Princeton University PressCamus, Blbert- %(55- The yth of ,isophus- 9ew ?or+! Cintage 7oo+s-

Caspar, Ruth- %(&%- D;Bll Shall 7e 5ell;! Prototypical Symbols o$ "opeE, 7ournal of the History of )deas F2,%!%3('50-

2 Clot$elter, Charles and Phillip Coo+- %(&(- ,elling Hope4 ,tate #otteries in 0merica$ Cambridge, =B! "arvard University PressCrapan.ano, Cincent- 2003a- )maginati/e Hori2ons4 0n Essay in #iterary+Philosophical 0nthropology- Chicago! University o$ Chicago PressCrapan.ano, Cincent- 2003b- DRe$lections on "ope as a Category o$ Social and Psychological BnalysisE, %ultural 0nthropology %&,%!3'32Cronan, 5illiam- %((%- -ature!s 9ortonetropolis4 %hicago and the 5reat (est- 9ew ?or+! 5-5-

Cullen, #im- 2003- The 0merican Dream4 0 ,hort History of the )dea that ,haped a -ation/6$ord! /6$ord University PressDahrendor$, Ral$- %( L- )ne&uality, Hope, and Progress$ 4leanor Rathbone =emorial Iecture- Iiverpool! Iiverpool University PressDe =e.a, David and Clive Southey- %((L- D*he 7orrower;s Curse! /ptimism, <inance, and 4ntrepreneurshipE, The Economic 7ournal %0L!3 5'&LDeenene, Patric+- %(((- D*he Politics o$ "ope and /ptimism! Rorty, "avel, and the Democratic <aith o$ #ohn DeweyE, ,ocial 'esearch LL,2!5 'L0(Desroche, "enri- %( (- The ,ociology of Hope- 7oston! RoutledgeDur+heim, 4mile- J%&(3K %(&F$ The Di/ision of #a*or in ,ociety- *rans- 5-D- "alls- 9ew ?or+! *he <ree Press<o6, Cicente- 200 - 'e/olution of Hope4 The #ife, "aith and Dreams of a 9ew ?or+! Ci+ingexican President-

<reeman, Christoper- %((2- Economics of Hope4 Essays on technical %hange, Ecoinomic 5rowth, and the En/ironment- 9ew ?or+! St- =artin@allup )nternational- 2005- Press Release on Survey <indings Coice o$ the People- December 20@enda, ?u8i- 200 - D5hy "as "ope 7een Iost in #apanGE Paper presented at Cornell University@od$rey, #oseph- %(& - 0 Philosophy of Human Hope- Dordrecht! 9i8ho$$@ood, =ary'#o Del Cecchio et al- %((0- DBmerican /ncology and the Discourse o$ "opeE, %ulture, edicine, and Psychiatry %F!5(' ("ac+ing, )an- %((0- The Taming of %hance- Cambridge! Cambridge University Press"age, @hussan- 2003- 0gainst Paranoid -ationalism4 ,earching for Hope in a ,hrinking ,ociety- Sydney! Pluto Bustralia-

2&

"arvey, David- 2000- ,paces of Hope- 7er+eley, CB! University o$ Cali$ornia Press"irschman, Blbert /- %( %- 0 .ias for Hope- 9ew "aven, C*! ?ale University Press"irschman, Blbert /- %(&L- D)n De$ense o$ PossibilismE- Pp- % %' 5 in 'i/al 9iews of ,ociety$ 9ew ?or+! Ci+ingarket

"irschman, Blbert /- %(L - De/elopment Pro:ects O*ser/ed- 5ashington, DC! 7roo+ings"obsbawm, 4ric- %( 3- D*he Principle o$ "opeE- Pp- %3L'F% in 'e/olutionaries- 9ew ?or+! 9ew Bmerican Iibrary"ouser, R-4- 1ed-2- 200F- The %ardinal 9irtues4 0&uinas, 0l*ert and Philip the %hancellor*oronto! Ponti$icial )nstitute o$ =edieval Studies#ahoda, =arie, Paul Ia.ars$eld and "ans >eisel- J%(33K %( %of an 6nemployed %ommunity- 9ew ?or+! Bldinearienthal4 The ,ociography

Aant, )mmanuel- J% &%K %(L5- %riti&ue of Pure 'eason$ *rans- 9orman Aemp Smith- 9ew ?or+! St- =artin;s PressAant, )mmanuel- J% (5K %( 0- DPerpetual Peace! B Philosophical S+etchE- Pp- (3'%30 in "ans Reiss 1ed-2, ;ant!s Political (ritings- Cambridge, UA! Cambridge University PressAemper, *heodore- %(& - D"ow =any 4motions Bre *hereG 5edding the Social and the Butonomic ComponentsE, 0merican 7ournal of ,ociology (3,2!2L3'&(Aier+egaard, SSren- J%&F3K %(& - Either<Or- Col- %- Princeton! Princeton University PressAier+egaard, SSren- J%&F3K %((5- 6pprepningen- Reboda, Sweden! 9imrodAier+egaard, SSren- J%&F K %(L2- DIove "opes Bll *hings and ?et is 9ever Put to ShameEPp, 23%'FL in (orks of #o/e- 9ew ?or+! "arperAnight, <ran+ "- &%(2%( %(&5- 'isk, 6ncertainty and Profit- Chicago, )I! University o$ Chicago PressAnudsen, *horb8Srn and Richard Swedberg- 200&- DCapitalist 4ntrepreneurshipE- Paper presented at the con$erence DCapitalism and 4ntrepreneurshipE, Cornell University, /ctoberIevenstein, Bdolph- %(%2- Die 0r*eiterfrage, mit *esonderer .er=cksichtigung der so2ialpsychologischen ,eite des modernen 5ross*etrie*es und der psycho+physichen Einwirkungen auf die 0r*eiter$ =unich! 4- ReinhardtIove8oy, Brthur /- %(2 - D/ptimism and RomanticismE, P #0 F2,F!(2%'F5Iynch, 5illiam- %(L5- )mages of Hope! )magination as Healer of the Hopeless- 7altimore! "elicon Press-

2( =alrau6, BndrH- %(3&an!s Hope- 9ew ?or+! Random "ouse- *rans- o$ #!Espoir$ etaphysics of Hope$ 9ew ?or+!

=arcel, @abriel- %(L2$ Homo 9iator4 )ntroduction to a "arper-

=arrett, Robert Ranulph- %(32- "aith, Hope, and %harity in Primiti/e 'eligion- 9ew ?or+! =acmillan=ar6, Ieo- %( %- The achine in the 5arden4 Technology and the Postwar )deal in 0merica9ew ?or+! /6$ord University Press=iya.a+i, "iro+a.u- <orthcoming- 0r*itraging 7apan4 The Economy of Hope in Tokyo "inancial arkets- 7er+eley! University o$ Cali$ornia Press=iya.a+i, "iro+a.u- 200F- The ethod of Hope4 0nthropology, Philosophy, and "i:ian ;nowledge- Stan$ord! Stan$ord University Press=iya.a+i, "iro+a.u and Richard Swedberg 1eds-2- <orthcoming- Hope in the Economy=oltmann, #Trgen- %((3- Theology of Hope4 On the 5round and )mplications of a %hristian Eschatology- =inneapolis, =9! <ortress Press=uys+ens, Iames- %( (- The ,uffiency of Hope4 The %onceptual "oundations of 'eligion, Philadelphia, P9! *emple University Press9eves, Carlos- 200%- D/ptimism, Pessimism, and "ope in Dur+heimE, 7ournal of Happiness ,tudies F!%L('&3/bama, 7arac+- 200 - The 0udacity of Hope4 'eclaiming the 0merican Dream- 9ew ?or+! Crown Publishers/bershall, Bnthony- %(L5- Empirical ,ocial 'esearch in 5ermany>?@?+>A>@- 9ew ?or+! 7asic 7oo+s/4D 1/6$ord 4nglish Dictionary2- %(&(- D"ope Jand Related *ermsKE- Pp- 3 o$ The Oxford English Dictionary- /6$ord! Clarendon Press/tto, Randall- %((%- The 5od of Hope4 The Trinitarian 9ision of 7=rgen =D! University Press o$ BmericaPeters, Curtis- %((3- ;ant!s Philosophy of Hope- 9ew ?or+! Peter IangPsychological )n0uiry- 2002- DComments! JCriti0ue o$ SnyderKERicoeur, Paul- %((5- D"ope and the Structure o$ Philosophical SystemsE- Pp- 203'%L in "iguring the ,acred- =inneapolis, =9! <ortress PressRorty, Richard- %(((- Philosophy and ,ocial Hope- "armondsworth, 4ngland! Penguin' & in Col-

oltmann- Ianham,

30 Sartre, #ean'Paul- %((L- Hope -ow4 The >A?B )nter/iews- Chicago! University o$ Chicago PressSanyal, 7ishwapriya, Senyal- %((F- DSocial Construction o$ "opeE- Pp- %3%'FF in Iloyd Rodwin and Donald SchUn 1eds-2, 'ethinking the De/elopment Experience- 5ashington, DC! 7roo+ingsSchudson, =ichael- %(((- D?ou;ve @ot =ail! B <ew /bservations on "opeE, ,ocial 'esearch LL,2! L25'2&Shade, Patric+- 200%- Ha*its of Hope4 0 Pragmatic Theory- 9ashville, *9! Canderbilt University PressShiller, Robert- 2000- )rrational Exu*erance- Princeton! Princeton University PressSimmel, @eorg- J%(0&K %(50- D<aith$ulness and @ratitudeE- Pp- 3 ('F0% in The ,ociology of 5eorg ,immel- 9ew ?or+! *he <ree PressSmith, Bdam- J%( LK %( L- 0n )n&uiry into the -ature and %auses of the (ealth of -ations$ /6$ord! /6$ord University PressSnyder, C- Richard- %((0- The Psychology of Hope- 9ew ?or+! *he <ree PressSnyder, C- Richard 1ed-2- 2000- 0 Hand*ook of Hope- San Diego! Bcademic PressSnyder, C- Richard- 200%- D"ope and "opelessnessE- Pp- L(0 'L(0( in Col- %0 o$ 9eil Smelser and Paul 7altes 1eds-2, The )nternational Encyclopaedia of the ,ocial and .eha/ioral ,ciences- Bmsterdam! 4lsevier,ocial 'esearch- %(((- DJ*heme )ssueK! "ope and DespairE- LL,2!F2('L (Sullivan, Patricia- %((L- Days of Hope4 'ace and Democracy in the -ew Deal 0rea- Chapel "ill, 9C! University o$ 9orth Carolina PressSwedberg, Richard- 2005- DBn Bttempt at a Sociology o$ "ope! *he Case o$ 4conomic Development in %&th Century SwedenE- Unpublished paper, see the web page o$ Richard SwedbergS.ondi, Peter- %(&L- D"ope in the Past! /n 5alter 7en8aminE- Pp- %F5'5( in On Textual 6nderstandings and Other Essays- =inneapolis, =9! University o$ =innesota Press*er+el, Studs- 2003- Hope Dies #ast4 ;eeping "aith in Difficult Times- 9ew ?or+! 9orton*iger, Iionel- %(((- D"ope Springs )nternalE, ,ocial 'esearch LL,2!L%%'2F*oc0ueville, Ble6is de- 200F- Democracy in 0merica- *rans- Brthur @oldhammer- 9ew ?or+! *he Iibrary o$ Bmerica-

3% *oc0ueville, Ble6is de- %((&- The Old 'egime and the 'e/olution$ *rans- Blan S- Aahan- Col%- Chicago! University o$ Chicago Press*oc0ueville, Ble6is de- %&L2- E<rance be$ore the RevolutionE- Pp- 20F'52 in Col- % o$ emoir, #etters, and 'emains- 7oston! *ic+nor and <ields*urner, #-=- 5- J%&%2K %(3(- D<allacies o$ "opeE- P- F F in B-#-<- <inberg, The #ife of 7$ $($ Turner- /6$ord! Clarendon PressCerdery, Aatherine- %((5- D<aith, "ope, and Caritas in the Iand o$ the Pyramids! Romania, %((0'%((FE, %omparati/e ,tudies in ,ociety and History 3 ,F!L25'L(Coltaire- J% 5(K 200F- %andide, or Optimism- 9ew "aven, C*! ?ale University Press5eber, =a6- %( &- Economy and ,ociety4 0n Outline of )nterpreti/e ,ociology- 7er+eley, CB! University o$ Cali$ornia Press5eber, =a6- %(FL- 1eds- "ans @erth and C- 5right =ills2- "rom /6$ord University Pressax (e*er- 9ew ?or+!

5eber, =a6- %((F- 1ed- Peter Iassman and Ronald Speirs2- Political (ritings- Cambridge, UA! Cambridge University Press5eiss, =ichael- 2003- D)nside Consumer Con$idenceE, 0merican Demographics 251%2!23'2(5illiams, Raymond- %(&(- 'esources of Hope4 %ulture, Democracy, ,ocialism- Iondon! Cerso5right, Iouis- %(50- D"istorical )mplications o$ /ptimism in 46panding BmericaE, Proceedings of the 0merican Philosophical ,ociety (F,%!%&'23>etterbertg, "ans- 2005- 4'mail to Richard Swedberg dated #une %>i$$, #errold- %(LF- D#ohn Ianghorne and *urner;s M<allacies o$ "ope;E, 7ournal of the (ar*urg and %ourtauld )nstitutes 2 !3F0'F2>ourna.i, =ary- 2002- Hope4 -ew Philosophies for %hange- 9ew ?or+! Routledge-

32 <ig- %- "ope and )ts Iin+s to Society

I. Hope the !ish

II. for something

III. to come true

the core of hope is a !ish this !ish is for something, and this something has a social dimension for this something to "ecome true# it has to "ecome true in society and through interactions !ith other people

%omment: <rom a social science perspective it is important to loo+ at hope in a way that allows the social science perspective to be applied to it- 5ays o$ hoping may also congeal into social $acts, which people see as DnaturalE and where deviations as $elt as coercive-

33 <ig- 2- *wo Dimensions o$ "ope

o$ertaking

A
inside

B
outside

inspiring

%omment4 *he $igure attempts to e6press the suggestion the notion that hope can either be centered inside a person or be oriented towards actions by the person on the outside, hope can also wor+ as an inspiration $or the ob8ectPaction o$ hope or hope can overta+e or overpower the attempt to reali.e it-

3F <ig- 3- *wo Dimensions o$ "ope and the 4conomy

o$ertaking economic utopias economic $atalism the Bmerican Dream irrational e6uberance gold digging

inside buying lottery tic+ets economic dreams hope $or a good 8ob

outside

creative economic actions possibilism entrepreneurship

inspiring

%omment! 4conomic actions are primarily concerned with the outer rather than the inner sphere- 7ut as the e6amples in the $igure shows, some interesting economic topics belong to the inner sphere- *he speci$ic items mentioned in the $igure may also shi$t around a bit, depending on the circumstances- *he Bmerican Dream may be seen as a social $act that involves hope-

35 <ig- F- "ope and )ts Iin+s to 4conomy and Society

group membership o$ the actor 1class, gender etc2

economic, social and cultural capital o$ the actor

Hope

the !ish

for something

to come true

consumer culture including adver' tisement

economic opportunity structure

economic institutions and material resources

%omment4 *he $igure shows some social in$luences on hope relating to the economy in modern capitalist society- *he in$luences relate to 1%2 the ob8ect o$ hope and 122 how it can be reali.ed- 5ays o$ hoping may also congeal into social $acts, which people see as DnaturalE and where deviations as $elt as coercive-