Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

138: 1740–1750, October 2012 A

Observed triggering of tropical convection by a cold surge:

implications for MJO initiation
Lin Wang,a * Kunihiko Koderab,c and Wen Chena
a
Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
b
Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University, Japan
c
Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
*Correspondence to: L. Wang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, PO Box 2718, Beijing
100190, China. E-mail: wanglin@post.iap.ac.cn

The extratropical influence is an important mechanism in the initiation of the

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Based on analyses of several datasets, this article
demonstrates that the MJO case initiated in late January 2008 was strengthened by
a preceding cold surge over West Asia when the MJO was at its initiation phase. The
cold surge-related northerlies propagated southward along the east coast of Africa.
The associated convergence on the edge of the surge enhanced ascending motion in
the tropical western Indian Ocean and led to the onset of deep convection to the
north of Madagascar. This process helped to amplify the MJO convection rapidly,
as shown in the development of the moist static energy anomalies. In this way, the
cold surge affected the behaviour of the MJO and modified the timing of its initiation
to some extent. These results support previous studies that extratropical factors are
important for the initiation of the MJO, and suggest that the subtropical cold surges
are likely to strengthen and accelerate the build-up of deep MJO convection at the
MJO initiation phase. Copyright ! c 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Key Words: MJO dynamics; tropical-extratropical interaction; pressure surge; monsoon

Received 19 April 2011; Revised 19 December 2011; Accepted 23 January 2012; Published online in Wiley Online
Library 28 February 2012

Citation: Wang L, Kodera K, Chen W. 2012. Observed triggering of tropical convection by a cold surge:
implications for MJO initiation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 1740–1750. DOI:10.1002/qj.1905

1. Introduction convergence and moisture, oceanic forcing, and mid-

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO; Madden and Julian,
1971, 1972) is a dominant component of tropical variability
at intraseasonal time-scales, and it exerts extensive influences
on the global weather and climate (Madden and Julian, 1994;
Zhang, 2005, provide a full review). Among the many aspects
of the MJO studies, the mechanism for the MJO initiation is
one of the most challenging and least understood topics. It
is relevant not only to the understanding of MJO dynamics,
but also to global medium- and extended-range weather
forecasts.
The existing hypotheses about MJO initiation
can be roughly grouped into five categories: local
discharge–recharge processes, extratropical influences,
upstream effects of circumnavigating waves, stochastic forc-
ing, and other factors such as atmospheric boundary-layer
c 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
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tropospheric thermodynamical forcing (Kemball-Cook and
Weare, 2001; Matthews, 2008; Ray et al., 2009), among
which the extratropical processes are regarded as important
ingredients (Liebmann and Hartmann, 1984; Lau and Peng,
1987; Hsu et al., 1990; Lau et al., 1994; Matthews et al., 1996;
Matthews and Kiladis, 1999; Lin et al., 2007; Matthews,
2008). Recently, some numerical studies have shown that
the realistic MJO cannot be generated without disturbances
from lateral/extratropical boundaries (Ray et al., 2009; Ray
and Zhang, 2010), further suggesting the importance of the
extratropical influences in the initiation of the MJO.
The extratropical influences related to the MJO initiation
documented in previous studies are mainly extratropical
wave trains in the upper troposphere (e.g. Liebmann and
Hartmann, 1984; Matthews and Kiladis, 1999). Although
the circulation and potential vorticity anomalies of the
 Cold Surge and MJO Initiation
Rossby waves maximize in the upper troposphere, they
can induce ascent throughout the whole troposphere down
to the boundary layer (Matthews et al., 1996). This type
of case is mostly observed over the central Pacific and
the Atlantic (Matthews and Kiladis, 1999; Lin et al., 2007)
because the westerlies in these regions allow the Rossby
waves to propagate into the deep Tropics. In addition,
Hsu et al. (1990) provided evidence that a Rossby wave train
could propagate into the Indian Ocean and play a role in
initiating a particular MJO event on 3 January 1986.
A second type of extratropical influence on MJO initiation
is through processes in the lower troposphere. Murakami
(1988) first speculated that the northerly surge to the
west of the Tibetan Plateau might reach the Arabian Sea
and the equatorial Indian Ocean, and excite pronounced
convection associated with the MJO. Rui and Wang (1990)
inferred that the strong equatorward meridional flow from
Mediterranean might activate MJO convection over tropical
Africa. In these studies, the triggering of the tropical
convection by shallow extratropical processes is thought
to be important during the initiation of the MJO. However,
the observational evidence about this type of extratropical
influence is rarely reported. Meanwhile, it remains unclear
how the tropical convection induced by extratropical
processes contributes to the initiation of the MJO.
Cold surges (or cold waves) are an important type of
wintertime shallow extratropical disturbance, associated
with strong winds, sharp rises of surface pressure and
sudden falls of surface temperature in midlatitudes and
the subtropics (e.g. Boyle and Chen, 1987). In addition
to their great extratropical influences, they can often
penetrate into the Tropics and induce or reinforce the
tropical convection (e.g. Chang et al., 1979, 2003; Chang
and Lau, 1980; Chang and Chen, 1992; Sun and Li, 1997;
Compo et al., 1999; Wang and Chen, 2010). For example,
Chang et al. (1979) indicated that a cold surge from the
South China Sea enhanced the tropical convection to the
east of Malaysia. Compo et al. (1999) suggested a robust
statistical relationship between an East Asian cold surge and
the convective activity over the South China Sea, the eastern
Indian Ocean, and the Philippine regions. Since tropical
convection is an indispensable component of the MJO, one
natural question is whether cold surges could play some role
in MJO initiation.
In January 2008, record-breaking and long-lasting
extreme cold surges struck southern China, leading to
great casualties and economic losses (e.g. Zhou et al., 2011).
Although the extratropical factors are thought to be the
main cause of this disaster (e.g. Wen et al., 2009; Zhou et al.,
2009; Han et al., 2011), an MJO which originated from the
western Indian Ocean around mid-January also played a
crucial role in the maintenance of the icy weather (Hong
and Li, 2009). In this study, we will show that the initiation
of this MJO case was preceded by a cold surge from West
Asia. This subtropical cold surge triggered strong convection
over the tropical western Indian Ocean and strengthened
the MJO convection at its initiation phase. In this way,
the cold surge modified the behaviour of this MJO and
contributed to its initiation. To our knowledge, it may be
the first observational study to confirm the contribution of
cold surges to MJO initiation.
The datasets and analysis methods used in this study are
described in section 2. Section 3 presents a brief overview
of the MJO case and its initiation. In sections 4 and 5
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1741
respectively, we analyze the effects of the preceding cold
surge over West Asia on the initiation of the MJO, and
the possible role of several other factors during that stage.
Section 6 provides a second case to support the proposed
role of a cold surge on MJO initiation. Finally, the article
ends with a summary in section 7 and discussion in section 8.
2. Data and methods
Atmospheric data used in this study are from the daily mean
National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National
Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis
(Kalnay et al., 1996). This dataset has a 2.5◦ × 2.5◦
horizontal resolution and extends from 1000 to 10 hPa
with 17 vertical pressure levels. Oceanic data are the
high-resolution optimally interpolated daily mean Reynolds
version-2 sea surface temperature (SST) from the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with
a 0.5◦ × 0.5◦ horizontal resolution (Reynolds et al.,
2002). Precipitation data are from the Tropical Rainfall
Measuring Mission (TRMM) merged products 3B42 dataset
(Huffman et al., 2007) which covers the period 1 January
1998 onwards. It has three-hour time interval and provides
high-resolution rainfall records on a 0.25◦ × 0.25◦ mesh.
Interpolated daily mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)
data from NOAA with a 2.5◦ × 2.5◦ horizontal resolution
are used as a proxy for the tropical convection (Liebmann
and Smith, 1996).
In order to illustrate the activity of the MJO, a
real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index developed
by Wheeler and Hendon (2004) was downloaded from
the website of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
(http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/).
This index is defined through projection of daily anomalies
onto the leading pair of empirical orthogonal functions
(EOFs) of combined fields of equatorially averaged (15◦ S
to 15◦ N) OLR, 850 hPa zonal wind, and 200 hPa zonal
wind to obtain two principal component (PC) time series
(named RMM1 and RMM2). With the annual cycle and
components of interannual variability removed prior to the
projection, this index serves as a good tool for the real-time
monitoring of the MJO activity.
In this study, we focus on the period from 1 December
2007 to 28 February 2008. The linear trend (defined in the
period 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2009 for TRMM
rainfall and in the period 1 January 1979 to 31 December
2009 for the other variables) and the annual cycle (mean and
first three annual harmonics) were removed from original
time series at each grid point to obtain anomaly fields for each
dataset. A 200-day Lanczos low-pass filter was then applied
to retain both the intraseasonal signals associated with the
MJO and the synoptic features that may be important for
the MJO initiation.
3. Overview of the MJO and its initiation
Figure 1(a) shows the time–longitude diagram of the 3-day
running mean OLR anomaly averaged over 15◦ S −5◦ N.
Two eastward propagating MJO signals are clearly visible.
The first MJO started in early December 2007 and then
propagated eastward from the western Indian Ocean to
the central Pacific. The second MJO was also initiated
over the western Indian Ocean but around mid- to late
January 2008. After it moved to the Maritime Continent,
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 1740–1750 (2012)
1742 L. Wang et al.

Figure 1. (a) Time–longitude diagram of the 3-day means of OLR anomalies averaged over 15◦ S −5◦ N with contour interval 20 W m−2 , positive
contours dotted, negative values shaded and zero contour lines in bold. (b) Amplitude of the Wheeler–Hendon index. Both are for the period 1 December
2007 to 28 February 2008.

it induced anomalous northerlies and contributed to the

record-breaking cold anomaly and icy weather over southern
China (Hong and Li, 2009). In the following, we will focus
on the second MJO case and explore when and how it was
initiated.
The amplitude of the RMM index indicates that the
strength of the MJO decreased rapidly after mid-January
2008 (Figure 1(b)). Meanwhile, the phase evolution of the
RMM index indicates that the previous MJO entered phase
7 on 8 January, but its eastward propagation ceased in the
following ∼10 days (Figure 2). These phenomena suggest
that the previous MJO became inactive (or died out) during
this period. In contrast, the amplitude of the RMM index
recovered in late January (Figure 1(b)). Meanwhile, the
RMM index re-emerged in phase 1 and began to propagate
eastward subsequently (Figure 2), implying the start of the
second MJO. Generally it is arbitrary to define the exact start
time of the MJO due to its quasi-cyclical nature (Matthews,
2008). Therefore, based on the above evidence, it is suggested
that the MJO case that we are concerned with was initiated Figure 2. (RMM1, RMM2) phase space diagram for the period from 1
in late January 2008. December 2007 to 28 February 2008. Days in December 2007, January
2008 and February 2008 are shown by open diamonds, open triangles
and open circles, respectively. This figure is available in colour online at
4. The cold surge and its effect on the MJO initiation wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/qj

A day-to-day inspection of the anomalous OLR from early

to late January 2008 reveals that the tropical Indian Ocean
was occupied by large-scale suppressed convection before 17
January (Figure 3(a, b)). On 18 January, a weak convection
signal began to emerge just off the east coast of Africa
around the Equator (Figure 3(c)). It amplified to the north
of Madagascar on 19 January (Figure 3(d)) and became
more organized later (Figure 3(e–g)). On 23 January, this
organized convection centre spanned the western Indian
Ocean (Figure 3(h)) resembling the typical phase 1 of the
wintertime MJO (e.g. Figure 8 of Wheeler and Hendon,
2004). Meanwhile, the suppressed convection centre over the
central Indian Ocean was weakened and began to propagate
eastward (Figure 3(d–i)), corresponding to the initiation
of the MJO. In this process, the amplification of local
c 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
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convection over the tropical western Indian Ocean from 18
to 19 January seems to be important.
Previous studies suggest that the onset of the MJO is
featured with the build-up of convection from shallow
to deep with time, which can be seen clearly in the
evolution of the moist static energy (e.g. Kemball-Cook
and Weare, 2001). The moist static energy is defined as
h = cp T + Lq + gz, where cp is the specific heat of air, T is
the air temperature, L is the latent heat of condensation, q is
the specific humidity, g is the gravitational constant, and z is
the geopotential height. Usually a strong positive h anomaly
extending from near the surface up to about 300 hPa can be
observed with the onset of the MJO convection (Kemball-
Cook and Weare, 2001). Figure 4 shows the daily evolution
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 1740–1750 (2012)
 Cold Surge and MJO Initiation 1743

Figure 3. The daily mean 850 hPa wind anomalies (vectors) and 3-day mean OLR anomalies (shading) for the period 16 to 24 January 2008.

Figure 4. The daily evolution of the moisture static energy anomalies averaged over 40◦ −60◦ E, 15◦ S −0◦ for the period 9 to 31 January 2008; contour
intervals are 500 J kg−1 , negative values are dashed and zero lines are in bold.

c 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Copyright ! Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 1740–1750 (2012)
1744 L. Wang et al.

Figure 5. The daily evolution of (a) surface pressure (hPa), surface meridional wind speed (m s−1 ) and surface air temperature (◦ C) averaged over
the area 45◦ − 55◦ E, 20◦ − 30◦ N, (b) surface air temperature anomalies (contour interval 2◦ C), (c) 850 hPa omega (shading interval 0.03 Pa s−1 ) and
negative surface meridional wind speed (contour interval 1 m s−1 ), and (d) TRMM rainfall anomalies (contour interval 50 mm) and 850 hPa divergence
(contour interval 2 × 10−6 s−1 ) for the period 10 to 25 January 2008. In (b), (c) and (d), values are averages over 45◦ − 55◦ E, and (c) and (d) have
negative contours dashed and zero contours omitted.

of h anomaly averaged over 40◦ − 60◦ E, 15◦ S −0◦ . A weak
positive h anomaly centred below 850 hPa was observed
from 13 to 16 January. It began to amplify on 17 January
and extended further upwards to 300 hPa on 19 January,
indicating the onset of the deep convection associated with
the MJO. This result is consistent with that indicated by
the OLR, and confirms that the amplification of convection
over the tropical western Indian Ocean on 19 January is
important at the initiation phase of this MJO.
What caused the onset of the deep convection on 19
January? An inspection of the 850 hPa winds indicates that
it is closely related to the anomalous northerlies from the
Arabian Peninsula (Figure 3(b–d)) induced by a preceding
c 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
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cold event over West Asia. Figure 5(a) shows the time
evolution of several surface meteorological variables over
West Asia (45◦ − 55◦ E, 20◦ − 30◦ N). The surface northerlies
in this area increased since 11 January and peaked on 15
January. It was accompanied by a significant drop in surface
air temperature and an increase in surface pressure, with
the largest anomalies occurring on 16 and 17 January,
respectively. The drop of temperature and the rise of
surface pressure were preceded by the strong northerlies
(Figure 5(a)), indicating a passage of a surface cold front
through this area. Although the changes in the surface
meteorological variables are not as sharp as those over
East Asia, all these characteristics bear great resemblance to
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 1740–1750 (2012)
 Cold Surge and MJO Initiation 1745

those seen in the East Asian cold surge (e.g. Chang et al.,
1979; Boyle and Chen, 1987). Hence, it is inferred that
West Asia experienced a cold surge around 16 January.
Previous studies have shown that the tropical convection
can be induced and intensified by a subtropical cold surge
through a northerly incursion (Chang et al., 1979). Here
an increase in the 850 hPa winds was also observed to the
northeast of Madagascar before the onset of the convection
(Figure 3(b–d)). Therefore, it is quite possible that this
convection was triggered by the preceding cold surge over
West Asia.
To further validate the cause–effect relationship between
the cold surge and the onset of the convection, we examined
the time evolution of some meteorological variables in the
same longitudinal band from 45◦ E to 55◦ E (Figure 5(b–d)).
After the occurrence of the cold surge, the subtropical cold air
mass progressed southwards. Due to the strong modification
of the cold air mass by the underlying warm ocean, the
associated drop of surface air temperature was clear north
of 15◦ N but much weaker and almost invisible further south
(Figure 5(b)), resembling the situation over East Asia (e.g.
Chang et al., 1979). In contrast, the southward incursion of
meridional winds was more evident (Figures 5(c), 6(a–c)),
and the northerly anomalies intensified continuously from
17 to 19 January (Figure 3(b–d)). Accordingly, a region
of ascending motion was observed to propagate southwards
just on the edge of the northerly winds (Figures 5(c), 6(a–c)).
When the wind maximum (exceeding 6 m s−1 ) reached the
Southern Hemisphere on 19 January, the ascending motion
exceeded 0.12 Pa s−1 and triggered deep tropical convection
(Figures 3(d), 6(c)) as well as intense precipitation
(Figure 5(d)).
Note that the ascending motion and related convergence
were already seen around 5◦ S on 17 January and became
stronger on 18 January (Figures 5(c, d), 6(a, b)). Figure 6. Latitude–pressure cross-sections of meridional winds (shading)
However, it was not until the arrival of the northerly and meridional circulation (vectors) averaged over 45◦ − 55◦ E for (a) 17
maximum on 19 January (Figures 3(d), 5(c), 6(c)) that January, (b) 18 January, and (c) 19 January 2008. (d) shows the January
mean SST averaged over 45◦ − 55◦ E.
the convergence and the ascending motion began to
amplify significantly (Figures 5(c, d), 6(c)). Therefore, it
can be concluded that the onset of this convection was
caused by the convergence on the edge of the northerly into the deep Tropics. The associated convergence on its edge
winds associated with the preceding cold surge over West enhanced ascending motion and led to the onset of deep
Asia. convection over the tropical western Indian Ocean. This
One question is why the cold surge-induced deep process strengthened the MJO convection significantly at its
convection occurred to the south of the Equator in contrast initiation phase and contributed to the MJO initiation. Also,
with Chang et al. (1979). Previous studies have shown that recall that Figure 4 reveals that the shallow convection of
SST in excess of 27.5◦ C is a basic requirement for the this MJO case persisted for only about 6 days, which is much
occurrence of large-scale deep convection (e.g. Graham and shorter than the ∼20 days in Kemball-Cook and Weare
Barnett, 1987). We examined the SST in Chang et al. (1979) (2001). The shallow convection became amplified exactly
and found that this requirement was met to the north of when the influence of the preceding cold surge arrived at the
Borneo (around 4◦ N, 112◦ E) where the enhanced convection tropical Indian Ocean. Therefore, it is deduced that the cold
was observed. However, in the present case, this requirement surge could also modify the timing of the MJO initiation
was met only in the Southern Hemisphere (Figure 6(d)). to some extent via its strengthening effects on the MJO
Therefore, the deep convection was observed to the south convection.
of the Equator. Meanwhile, it is also noteworthy that some
weak convection and rainfall were observed to the south 5. The effects of other factors
of the Equator before 19 January (Figures 3(a–c), 4, 5(d)).
These processes may help to moisten the column and serve Previously we have shown that the preceding cold surge
as a pre-condition (e.g. Kemball-Cook and Weare, 2001; could modify the activity of this MJO at its initiation
Lin and Johnson, 1996) for the development of the deep phase. Meanwhile, the warm SST in Figure 6(d) and some
convection on 19 January. other anomalies imply that several other factors may also
Based on the above analyses, we can deduce the role of the be important for the initiation of this MJO. Therefore,
preceding cold surge over West Asia in the initiation of this the possible effects of these factors will be examined
MJO. The cold surge-related northerlies invaded southwards here.
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1746
Figure 7. Time–longitude diagrams of the 3-day means of (a) 850 hPa zonal wind speed anomalies, (b) 200 hPa zonal wind speed anomalies, and (c) 400
−500 hPa averaged air temperature anomalies, all averaged over 15◦ S −5◦ N for the period 10 December 2007 to 31 January 2008. Contour intervals are
(a) 2 m s−1 , (b) 4 m s−1 , and (c) 0.5◦ C. Dotted contours indicate negative values in (a) and (c), and positive values in (b). Zero contour lines are in bold.
5.1. Tropical thermodynamical forcing
The upstream effect of circumnavigating waves is an
important mechanism for the initiation of the MJO, which
is usually associated with the eastward propagation of
tropical Kelvin waves (Knutson et al., 1986; Knutson and
Weickmann, 1987; Lau and Peng, 1987; Hendon and Salby,
1994). The associated eastward-propagating negative mid-
tropospheric temperature anomalies can also destabilize the
atmosphere and help to trigger intraseasonal convection
anomalies (Matthews, 2004).
Figure 7 shows the time–longitude diagram of upper-
and lower-tropospheric zonal wind anomalies and mid-
tropospheric temperature anomalies over the Tropics (15◦ S
−5◦ N). A Kelvin wave was observed to propagate eastwards
from about 60◦ W just before the initiation of the MJO
(Figure 7(a, b)). However, the anomalous upper-level
easterlies and the lower-level westerlies did not arrive
at longitudes 45◦ − 55◦ E until after the amplification of
convection on 19 January 2008. The temperature evolution
supports this scenario, which shows the late arrival of
cold mid-tropospheric temperature anomalies behind the
upwelling Kelvin wave (Figure 7c). Therefore, there is little
evidence for Kelvin wave initiation of the MJO, which
would require the arrival of upper-level easterly anomalies
before the onset of deep convection. Nevertheless, negative
mid-tropospheric temperature anomalies were seen along
the longitudes 45◦ − 55◦ E since about 20 December 2007
(Figure 7(c)), which may be related to the arrival of eastward-
propagating wind anomalies in late December 2007 to
early January 2008 (Figure 7(a, b)). Such mid-tropospheric
cooling could help to destabilize the atmosphere and create
a favourable condition for the subsequent amplification of
convection on 19 January 2008. In this way, the tropospheric
c 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
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L. Wang et al.
thermodynamical forcing may prime the atmosphere for the
initiation of this MJO.
5.2. Oceanic forcing
The air–sea interaction is an important component of the
MJO dynamics (Hendon, 2005). Positive SST anomalies
are often observed to lead enhanced MJO convection
by a quarter cycle (e.g. Woolnough et al., 2000). This
mechanism is particularly effective for successive MJO events
(Matthews, 2008) to which this MJO case belongs. Figure 8
shows the time–longitude diagram of SST anomalies over
the tropical Indian Ocean (averaged over 15◦ S −5◦ N).
Along the longitudinal band where this MJO was initiated
(45◦ − 55◦ E), negative SST anomalies persisting to about 23
January 2008 were preceded by positive SST anomalies in
late December 2007. The time lag between the two anomalies
is roughly a quarter cycle of the MJO. It implies that the
positive SST anomalies may serve as a precondition for
the subsequent onset of the MJO convection. Meanwhile,
it is noteworthy that there remain different viewpoints
regarding the role of intraseasonal SST on MJO initiation
(e.g. Pegion and Kirtman, 2008a, 2008b; Ray et al., 2011;
Webber et al., 2012). Therefore, some numerical model
studies are needed to further explore the possible oceanic
forcing on the initiation of this MJO case, which is outside
the scope of this article.
5.3. Extratropical Rossby wave forcing
The equatorward-propagating Rossby wave in the Northern
Hemisphere is an important mechanism for MJO initiation
(e.g. Hsu et al., 1990). Meanwhile, the occurrence of cold
surges is also closely associated with midlatitude Rossby
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 1740–1750 (2012)
 Cold Surge and MJO Initiation
Figure 8. Time–longitude diagram of the 3-day means of SST anomalies
averaged over 15◦ S −5◦ N for the period 10 December 2007 to 31 January
2008. The contour interval is 0.3◦ C, negative values are dotted and zero
contour lines are in bold.
Figure 9. (RMM1, RMM2) phase space diagram for the period from 1
November 1989 to 31 January 1990. The days in November, December
1989, and January 1990 are shown by open diamonds, open triangles
and open circles, respectively. This figure is available in colour online at
wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/qj
waves (e.g. Park et al., 2011). Hence, it is natural to
explore the possible role of extratropical Rossby waves
on the initiation of this MJO. An inspection on the
upper-tropospheric geopotential height and associated wave
activity flux (Takaya and Nakamura, 2001) reveals that an
eastward-propagating Rossby wave did appear before the
occurrence of the West Asian cold surge. However, this
wave train did not propagate towards the Equator. Instead,
it propagated further eastward to South and East Asia (not
shown). Therefore, the extratropical Rossby wave is not a
direct factor that triggered this MJO. Nevertheless, the cold
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1747
surge over West Asia is closely associated with this Rossby
wave. In this sense, the Rossby wave may play some indirect
role in the initiation of this MJO.
6. More evidence for the proposed mechanism
In previous sections, the strengthening of MJO convection
at its initiation phase by a preceding subtropical cold
surge was documented only for one case. It is natural to
ponder whether such a relation could exist in other cases
or whether the proposed mechanism is important more
generally. Usually the best way to answer these questions is
to present some statistical results. However, the locations
of both the cold surges and the MJO initiation vary from
case to case, making statistical analysis such as compositing
rather difficult. As a substitute, we briefly show another case
to support the proposed mechanism.
Figure 9 shows the evolution of the RMM index for
the period 1 November 1989 to 31 January 1990. It
reveals that an MJO began to propagate eastwards with
its amplitude exceeding 1 after 20 December. Given its
weak activity in mid-December 1989 and taking the same
criteria used in section 3, this suggests the initiation of
an MJO over the tropical western Indian Ocean in late
December 1989. Additionally, an inspection of several
surface meteorological variables reveals that a cold surge
occurred over subtropical West Asia on 16 December (not
shown). After the occurrence of this cold surge, anomalous
northerlies penetrated southwards along the east coast of
Africa (Figure 10). On the southern edge of the anomalous
northerlies, a convection centre was observed to occur
and amplify around 60◦ E, 5◦ N (Figure 10(b, c)). When the
anomalous northerlies were intensified on 20 December, this
convection centre moved further south, merged with the pre-
existing convection to the north of Madagascar, and formed
a well-organized deep convection centre (Figure 10(d)).
One difference of this case from that in January 2008
is that the convection to the northeast of Madagascar was
stronger before the arrival of the northern edge of the cold
surge (Figure 10(a–c)). This feature can also be seen in
the evolution of the moisture static energy (h) anomalies,
which indicates positive h anomalies in the mid-troposphere
from 15 to 19 December (Figure 11). However, although the
positive h anomalies had already occupied the troposphere
below 300 hPa on 18 December, these anomalies were
not so strong (most below 1000 J kg−1 ) and were further
weakened on 19 December. It was on 20 December (when
the cold surge-induced convection merged with pre-existing
convection) that the h anomalies became strong enough
(>1000 J kg−1 ) and persisted for the subsequent 7 days or
so. These results confirm that the cold surge could trigger
tropical deep convection and help to strengthen the MJO
convection rapidly at its initiation phase, consistent with the
mechanism proposed in the previous sections.
7. Summary
Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, NOAA OLR and
TRMM rainfall datasets, this study provides observational
evidence that an MJO was initiated over the tropical western
Indian Ocean in late January 2008, and that at its initiation
stage the MJO convection was strengthened rapidly by a
preceding subtropical cold surge. It is revealed that West
Asia experienced a cold surge around 16 January 2008, as
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 1740–1750 (2012)
1748 L. Wang et al.

Figure 10. The daily mean 850 hPa wind anomalies (vector) and 3-day mean OLR anomalies (shading) for the period 17 December to 20 December
1989.

Figure 11. The daily evolution of the moisture static energy anomalies averaged over 50◦ − 70◦ E, 15◦ S −0◦ for the period 9 December to 31 December
1989. The contour interval is 500 J kg−1 , negative values are dashed and zero contour lines are in bold.

indicated by an obvious enhancement of northerly flow, a
drop of surface air temperature and a rise of surface pressure.
After the occurrence of the cold surge, the associated
northerly flow progressed southwards and penetrated into
the Tropics. The low-level convergence on the edge of the
northerly winds amplified the ascending motion around
2.5◦ S on 19 January and triggered deep convection over the
western Indian Ocean. This process strengthened the MJO
convection significantly at its initiation phase, as shown
in the development of the moist static energy anomalies.
Moreover, due to the contribution of the cold surge, the
build-up of this deep MJO convection was accelerated
c 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
Copyright !
compared with the composite results in previous studies
(Kemball-Cook and Weare, 2001). In this way, the cold
surge affected the behaviour of the MJO and modified the
timing of its initiation to some extent. A brief investigation
of a second MJO case initiated in late December 1989 further
confirmed this mechanism.
The inspection of other possible triggering factors suggest
little evidence for the role of a tropical Kelvin wave and
extratropical Rossby wave. In contrast, the mid-tropospheric
temperature anomalies are found to play some role in
the initiation of this MJO. The cold mid-troposphere
could destabilize the atmosphere and provide a favourable
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 1740–1750 (2012)
 Cold Surge and MJO Initiation 1749

condition for the occurrence of the deep convection. to reproduce the activity of cold surges appropriately in
The intraseasonal tropical SST variability is also likely to numerical models in order to obtain better simulations and
prime the atmosphere for this MJO initiation, and further predictions of the MJO. Of course, cold surges are not the
investigation with numerical models may be helpful. only factor that need be considered in the MJO simulations;
The results in this article concrete the speculations the role of other extratropical factors such as the North
of Murakami (1988) that the subtropical northerlies are Atlantic Oscillation (Lin and Brunet, 2011) may also be
important for MJO convection, although the time-scale of important, and these deserve further investigation.
northerlies is different (intraseasonal in his case and synoptic
in our case). The results also support previous numerical Acknowledgements
studies that the extratropical factors are important for the
initiation of the MJO (e.g. Ray et al., 2009). However, in We appreciate the two anonymous reviewers for their
contrast to the triggering role of extratropical wave trains detailed comments and constructive suggestions that led
in the upper troposphere (Liebmann and Hartmann, 1984; to significant improvement on the manuscript. We are also
Hsu et al., 1990; Matthews and Kiladis, 1999; Lin et al., 2007),grateful to Drs G. Chen and P. Huang for helpful discussions
the subtropical cold surges are more likely to strengthen the and Dr R. Wu for assistance in improving the English
MJO convection. usage. This work was supported jointly by the Chinese
Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-EW-QN204), the National
8. Discussion Basic Research Program of China (2010CB428603) and the
National Natural Science Foundation of China (41025017,
Comparing this study with previous ones, we find that the 40905026).
influence of extratropical waves on the MJO are mostly
observed over the Western Hemisphere where the upper-
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