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2001 Fall Meeting

and document conclusive tests of each model with respect to existing and future geophysical observations. The variety of models under development reflects the variety of geophysical constraints available; these include geological fault information, historical seismicity, geodetic observations, stress-transfer interactions, and foreshock/aftershock statistics. One reason for developing and testing a range of models is to evaluate the extent to which any one can be exported to another region where the options are more limited. RELM is not intended to be a one-time effort. Rather, we are building an infrastructure that will facilitate an ongoing incorporation of new scientific findings into seismic-hazard models. The effort involves the development of several community models and databases, one of which is new Java-based code for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Although several different PSHA codes presently exist, none are open source, well documented, and written in an object-oriented programming language (which is ideally suited for PSHA). Furthermore, we need code that is flexible enough to accommodate the wide range of models currently under development in RELM. The new code is being developed under supervision from an oversight committee to help ensure both standardization and usefulness to a broad range of potential users. More details on the code development will be presented at the meeting. URL: http://www.relm.org

geodetically measured strain accumulation (EW) is not taking place in the direction of the greatest principal stress (NS), as revealed by focal mechanisms. Thus, in the case of major earthquakes in Cascadia, we hypothesize that redistribution of stress does not lead to significant changes of the seismicity rate over pro-longed periods. We suggest that mapping of the microseismic response to major earth-quakes may provide an estimate to what degree the stress level is critical in their vicinity. Strong and protracted seismicity rate changes versus no significant changes are expected to characterize near critical and sub-critical seismogenic volumes, respectively.

S42A-0601 1330h POSTER Decreases in the Magnitude-Frequency b-value Prior to Intermediate Magnitude Earthquakes in Kanto, Central Japan
Masajiro IMOTO (81-298-51-1611; imoto@bosai.go.jp) National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba, Iba 3050006, Japan The hypothesis that the moment release/energy release increases in acceleration as a function of time toward an approaching main shock suggests that the evolution of seismicity in a particular case could be ascribed to changes in the frequency - magnitude distribution with time. Since dramatic increases in the number of events preceding main shocks have rarely been observed, being consistent with the hypothesis, more frequent occurrences of larger events are expected with time in approach of a main shock. Decreases in b- value of the frequency- magnitude relation in certain time scales can be an observable parameter for this hypothesis. From this viewpoint, changes in b-value are studied using microearthquakes of magnitudes of 2.0 and larger obtained from a local network in Kanto. A parameter describing changes in b-value is defined using a simple filtering procedure. In order to obtain a distribution of the parameter in the population, values of the parameter are surveyed for the period from 1982 to 1999 in a 160x160x80 km volume. Within this volume, 16 events with M5.5 and larger occurred, which are assumed as target events for estimating probabilities. The conditional distribution of the parameter is estimated from 16 values, each of which refers to the value just before each target. The distribution of the population becomes a function of symmetry, a center of which corresponds to no change in b-value. On the contrary, the conditional distribution shows an asymmetric feature, which does tend to cause the b-value to decrease. The difference in the distributions between the two groups provides us a hazard function so that we could estimate earthquake probabilities with high performance. Comparing the hazard function thus obtained with a stationary Poisson process, an AIC reduction of 20 is obtained, which includes the 16 targets. This AIC reduction agrees closely with the probability gains of a retrospective study, most of which could be observed in a range of 2 to 4.

S41C-11 1120h INVITED Foreshock-Centric Short-Term Earthquake Hazard Forecasts

Andrew J. Michael1 (650-329-4777; michael@usgs.gov) Lucile M. Jones2 (626-583-7817; jones@usgs.gov) 1 USGS, MS 977 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United States 2 USGS, 525 South Wilson Drive, Pasadena, CA 91106 Current applications of the Agnew and Jones (JGR, 1991) foreshock model use a characteristic mainshockcentric view of seismicity sequences in order to compute the probability that a given earthquake will be followed by a large event. The method requires an estimate of the long-term probability of a mainshock regardless of the occurrence of any foreshocks, the rate of foreshocks before mainshocks, and the rate of background earthquakes in the region of interest. The region of interest has generally been defined as the area within 10 km of the potential mainshocks fault, as that distance appears to be the upper limit on the distance between foreshock and mainshock epicenters (Jones, BSSA, 1984). However, defining this region requires making a prediction about the fault length of a future mainshock and this task is both controversial and problematic. Even if the fault lengths of future mainshocks can be identified, intersecting or closely spaced faults can place a single potential foreshock in the areas associated with multiple possible mainshocks. These situations can complicate the application of a mainshock centric approach. However, given spatially-varying mainshock probabilities and background seismicity rates it is possible to recast the problem in a foreshock-centric view that does not rely on characteristic mainshocks. This is done by redefining the area of interest as a 10 km circle around the potential foreshock. The probability of a mainshock can then be the integrated probability of earthquakes over a given magnitude threshold initiating within that area. This value can be determined from any spatiallysmoothed earthquake-probability model such as that developed by the SCEC phase II report in southern California, the WG99 report in northern California, or a smoothed seismicity model. The background rate can easily be determined in the same region and then one can calculate the probability of this earthquake being a foreshock to any nearby mainshock instead of to a specific mainshock. We are also exploring whether or not the rate of foreshocks before mainshocks is a function of the background seismicity rate as predicted by some rate- and state-dependent friction models. If the rate of foreshocks does depend on the background seismicity rate (as measured from small earthquakes), then one would also have to compute the rate of foreshocks before mainshocks for the 10 km circular region around the potential foreshock.

S42A MC: Hall D Thursday 1330h

Time-Dependent Earthquake Hazard Assessment II (joint with G, T)

Presiding: D Schorlemmer, ETH

Hoenggerberbg HPP

S42A-0600 1330h POSTER On-going Temporal Change of Seismic Activity around a Potentially Seismogenic Zone in the Tokai Region, Japan
Shozo MATSUMURA (81-298-54-9849; shozo@bosai.go.jp) National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba 305-0006, Japan An anomalous change in seismicity monitored by microearthquake observation has been continuing around the Tokai region since the latter half of 1990s, where it is feared that a major earthquake of disastrous proportions is in preparation. At first, the change commenced as quiescence of the activity in the crust since 1996, and also in the subducted slab since 1999. After that, these activities appeared to indicate rather complex changing pattern. Comparing the occurrence rate of earthquakes during the anomalous period with the normal one, we delineated a spatial distribution of the seismicity change, which showed a separation of area between quiescent zones and activated ones. Appearance of such segregation seems to imply that the stress state due to locked subduction has come up to a critical stage. In this stage, it is considered that a gradual slip, progressing on a relatively weaker zone should cause redistribution of stress. As a result, stress-concentrated area forms an activated zone, and on the other hand stress-released area leads to quiescence. The similar phenomena based on microearthquake seismicity are exclusively reported by Wyss and his colleagues(1981,1986,1988,1994). According to them, several major earthquakes were preceded by quiescence in background seismicity. This quiescent area surrounded a non-quiescent zone from which the final rupture started, that was regarded as an asperity by Wyss. Such a feature is commonly found for at least four cases of earthquake sequences (Kalapana,M7.2; Stone Canyon,M5.0; Kaoiki,M6.6; Landers,M7.5). We think that the present state in the Tokai area very much resembles to those of Wysss reports, excepting that the spatial scale is larger than the latter ones. In the Tokai case, three or four asperities are surrounded with quiescent zones. The total area of the asperities is about 700 square-km. It seems possible that the area of the asperity may be related to the life of the critical state, then the author attempted to derive a numerical expression connecting Anq (square-km) with Tq (year), where Anq is the total area of asperity, and Tq the continuing time of quiescence preceding the final rupture. Plotting the four cases given by Wyss on a bilogarithmic graph, we could get a formula as Tq=0.27*SQRT(Anq). Such a relation that the linear scale of the asperity is proportional to its life looks reasonable. Putting Anq=700 (square-km) into this formula, we estimate Tq=7 (years) for the Tokai case.

S42A-0602 1330h POSTER A Software Tool for Quantitative Seismicity Analysis ZMAP
Stefan Wiemer1 (stefan@seismo.ifg.ethz.ch) Matt Gerstenberger1 (matt@seismo.ifg.ethz.ch) 1 ETH Zurich, Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Hoenggerberg,, Zurich 8093, Switzerland Earthquake catalogs are probably the most basic product of seismology, and remain arguably the most useful for tectonic studies. Modern seismograph networks can locate up to 100,000 earthquakes annually, providing a continuous and sometime overwhelming stream of data. ZMAP is a set of tools driven by a graphical user interface (GUI), designed to help seismologists analyze catalog data. ZMAP is primarily a research tool suited to the evaluation of catalog quality and to addressing specific hypotheses; however, it can also be useful in routine network operations. Examples of ZMAP features include catalog quality assessment (artifacts, completeness, explosion contamination), interactive data exploration, mapping transients in seismicity (rate changes, b-values, p-values), fractal dimension analysis and stress tensor inversions. Roughly 100 scientists worldwide have used the software at least occasionally. About 30 peer-reviewed publications have made use of ZMAP. ZMAP code is open source, written in the commercial software language Matlab by the Mathworks, a widely used software in the natural sciences. ZMAP was first published in 1994, and has continued to grow over the past 7 years. Recently, we released ZMAP v.6. The poster will introduce the features of ZMAP. We will specifically focus on ZMAP features related to time-dependent probabilistic hazard assessment. We are currently implementing a ZMAP based system that computes probabilistic hazard maps, which combine the stationary background hazard as well as aftershock and foreshock hazard into a comprehensive time dependent probabilistic hazard map. These maps will be displayed in near real time on the Internet. This poster is also intended as a forum for ZMAP users to provide feedback and discuss the future of ZMAP. URL: http://seismo.ethz.ch/staff/stefan

S41C-12 1135h RELM (the Working Group for the Development of Region Earthquake Likelihood Models) and the Development of new, Open-Source, Java-Based (Object Oriented) Code for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Edward H Field ((626) 583-7814; field@usgs.gov) USGS, Pasadena, 525 S. Wilson Ave, Pasadena, CA 91106, United States Given problems with virtually all previous earthquake-forecast models for southern California, and a current lack of consensus on how such models should be constructed, a joint SCEC-USGS sponsored working group for the development of Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) has been established (www.relm.org). The goals are as follows: 1) To develop and test a range of viable earthquakepotential models for southern California (not just one consensus model); 2) To examine and compare the implications of each model with respect to probabilistic seismic-hazard estimates (which will not only quantify existing hazard uncertainties, but will also indicate how future research should be focused in order to reduce the uncertainties); and 3) To design

Cite abstracts as: Eos. Trans. AGU, 82(47), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract #####-##, 2001.

2001 Fall Meeting

S42A-0603 1330h POSTER Probabilistic Forecast of Earthquakes Using Spatially Variable b-Values
Danijel Schorlemmer1 (+41 1 633 38 57; danijel@seismo.ifg.ethz.ch) Stefan Wiemer1 Max Wyss2 Domenico Giardini1 1 Swiss Seismological threshold 10-8 m/s and dynamic range of 90 dB. Triaxial induction magnetometer measures geomagnetic pulsations in the frequency range 0.003-30 Hz with sensitivity threshold 20 pT/Hz1/2 at frequency 0.01 Hz and 0.02 pT/Hz1/2 at frequencies higher than 10 Hz. Dynamic range of the magnetometer is 90 dB. Measurements of NS and EW components of telluric currents with maximum distance between electrodes of about 500 m are carried out. The acoustic emission receiver (high-frequency seismometer) based on mechanical pendulum with ceramic transducer is installed in 30 m borehole. The output signals are filtered by 4 filters with central frequencies equal to 30, 160, 500 and 1000 Hz. In the same borehole was installed highfrequency seismic noise (HFSN) piezoceramic sensor with very narrow band around 30 Hz and sensitivity threshold 10-12 m. The chemical components Cl, HCO3, SO4, Na, K, Ca, H3BO3, H4SiO4, gases CH4, N2, O2, CO2, Ar, He, H2 and hydrocarbonates C2H6, C2H4, C3H8, C3H6, C4H10, C4H10i are analysed in a few wells nearby the observatory. The atmospheric pressure, direction and velocity of the wind, humidity, precipitation, air and ground temperature are measured using meteorological station installed at observatory. Since June 2000 CGO Karymshina has started regular simultaneous monitoring of the above-mentioned parameters. Processing and analysis of the data include different methods (correlation, spectrum, wavelet and polarization). Weekly quick- looks (72 graphs) and monthly reviews are regularly distributed to Russian and Japanese collaborators. Many interesting facts are revealed from the initial scientific analysis. Rather promising results on co-seismic changes of electric and magnetic fields, on an increase of ULF noise polarization ratio 2-7 days before the large seismic shocks, and corresponding intensification of VLF signals could be mentioned in this connection. The chemical composition of underground water shows many variations in hydrocarbonates, but was not found any clear anomalies connected with earthquakes.

F893

S42A-0606 1330h POSTER The Most Recent Co-Seismic Faulting at the Central to Southern Parts of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line Active Fault System, Central Japan
Daisuke Miura1 (+81-471-82-1181; dmiura@criepi.denken.or.jp); Ryuta Hataya1 (+81-471-82-1181; hataya@criepi.denken.or.jp); Katsuyoshi Miyakoshi1 (+81-471-82-1181; miyakosi@criepi.denken.or.jp); Daiei Inoue1 (+81-471-82-1181; daiei@criepi.denken.or.jp); Masashi Omata2 (+81-3-5261-5761; ms-omata@ina-eng.co.jp); Toshinori Sasaki2 (+81-3-5261-5761; ts-sasak@ina-eng.co.jp); Yasuteru Kawasaki2 (+81-3-5261-5761; ys-kawas@ina-eng.co.jp); Akiko Miyawaki2 (+81-3-5261-5761; miya6002@chive.ocn.ne.jp); Takenobu Tanaka2 (+81-3-5261-5761; t-tanaka@ina-eng.co.jp); Ri-ichiro Miyawaki2 (+81-3-5261-5761; ri-miyaw@ina-eng.co.jp) 1 Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 1646 Abiko, Abiko, Chiba 270-1194, Japan 2 INA Co. Ltd., 1-44-10, Sekiguchi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-8668, Japan A series of paleo-seismological trenching study have been performed to clarify co-seismic faulting events and to evaluate a potential for dynamic rupture involving multiple segments of the 150km long ItoigawaShizuoka Tectonic Line active fault system (ISTL), Central Japan. According to the recent seismic potential assessment, the fault system is the most dangerous active fault system in Japan causing great earthquake in near future. Although it is a potentially dangerous one, in account for the co-seismic behavioural segmentation on the ISTL, there is in need of information for timing and nature of seismological event. With lots of trench excavations, lots of 14 C datings, and careful geological observations along the fault system, we discuss the possible behavioural segment in ISTL. In particular, we focus on the timing of the most recent event. The fault system consists of strike-slip (S), reverse (R), and both (SR) of surface rupturing natures. We excavated along the central to southern parts (CS parts; ca. 80 km long) involving, from north to south, the Okaya (S), the Kamanashiyama (S), the Hakushu (SR), the Houohzan (S), the Shimotsuburai (R), and the Ichinose (R) faults. Timing of the most recent event at each of them is following; Okaya (two trenching sites): 930-1700 cal.y.B.P. and 1390-2000 cal.y.B.P.; Northern Kamanashiyama (two sites): 9301510 cal.y.B.P, and 300-1200 cal.y.B.P. with a strikeslip offset of 5 meters; Southern Kamanashiyama (one site): 1500-1900 cal.y.B.P.; Hakushu (one site): 16302710 cal.y.B.P.; Shimotsuburai (combination of two sites): 1370-2500 cal.y.B.P.; Ichinose (one site): 7701270 cal.y.B.P.. These paleoseismological results indicate that; there was two timings for the most recent event in the C-S parts of the ISTL, i.e., 800-1200 cal.y.B.P., and 14001700 cal.y.B.P.. Former, the latest event shows an offset of 5 meters corresponds to 60 km surface rupturing, and this possible fault length is less than that of the entire ISTL. In the meanwhile, the later event is continuously obtained along the southern Kamanahsiyama to the Shimotsuburai faults. The fault trace length for this event is ca. 50 km in maximum. These suggest that the length of behavioural fault segment at the C-S parts of the ISTL is likely up to 50-60 km corresponding to cause the MJM A 7.8 earthquake.

Service, ETH HPP, Zuerich 8093, Switzerland

Hoenggerberg

2 University of Alaska, Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk Drive P.O. Box 757320, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, United States Spatially mapping the earthquake size distribution, or b-value, on a local to regional scale reveals strong variants on scales of 215 km. We have shown in several studies in diverse tectonic regimes that these variations in b are highly statistically significant and correlate well with the assumed distribution of asperities (low b-values, b < 0.7, short recurrence times) and creeping sections (high b-values, b > 1.3, long recurrence times) in the Earths crust. From these studies we have proposed three hypotheses: 1) Asperities can be mapped by low b-values, or alternatively by patches of short local recurrence time (local recurrence time hypothesis). 2) The most accurate probabilistic forecast of earthquakes is achieved when considering the spatial heterogeneity in b and TL . 3) Changes in b-value lead to meaningful changes in the probability of earthquakes. We present first results from a systematic statistical test of our hypotheses on data from California. The null hypothesis is a model with spatially varying productivity, or a-value, but constant b-value. Using 2and 3-dimensional grids with a node spacing of 1 km, we compute forecasts of seismicity for variable learning/forecast periods and variable observation sample radii. We compare forecasts at each node using loglikelihoods that assumes a stationary poissonian distribution of seismicity. To establish the significance of the observed log-likelihood sum differences of both of the models, we use a Monte Carlo style simulation approach, keeping earthquake hypocenters and focal times while permutating magnitudes. As a first test region, we evaluate the seismicity in the period 19802001 with M > 1.1 in the Parkfield region. Our test reveals that for forecast periods between 3 and 9 years, and radii between 2 and 5 km, the null hypothesis can be rejected at a significance level < 0.01. Therefore, a spatially varying b-value provides a significantly better forecast of future seismicity. Next we will evaluate other regions in California using the same approach, and, eventually, implement a real-time test of the hypothesis.

S42A-0605 1330h POSTER

Do Large Aftershocks Decrease Similarly to Smaller Ones?

Kohji Hosono1 (+81-3-3212-8341; hosono@eqvol.kishou.go.jp) Akio Yoshida2 (+81-298-53-8675; ayoshida@mri-jma.go.jp) Stefan Wiemer3 (+41-1-633-6625; stefan@seismo.ifg.ethz.ch) Matt Gerstenberger3 (+41-1-633-6625; matt@seismo.ifg.ethz.ch) 1 Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-3-4, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan 2 Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1, Nagamine, Tsukuba, Iba 305-0052, Japan 3 Institute of Geophysics, ETH, Hoenggerberg, HPP, Zurich CH-8093, Switzerland

S42A-0604 1330h POSTER The First Result of the Precursors Observation in Karymshina Observatory (Kamchatka, Russia) for Moderate Earthquakes
Evgenii Gordeev1 (+7-415-2259531; gord@emsd.iks.ru); Seiya Uyeda2 (+81-543-36-0591; suyeda@st.rim.or.jp); Toshiyasu Nagao2 (+81-543-36-0591; nagao@scc.u-tokai.ac.jp); Oleg Molchanov3 (+7-095-7314747; om olchanov @yahoo.com); KatsumiHattori4 (+81-43-290-2801; hattori@earth.s.chiba-u.ac.jp); Alexander Lutikov3 (+7-095-2549950; ail@uipe-ras.scgis.ru); Vladimir Gladyshev3 (+7-095-2556040; glad@uipe-ras.scgis.ru); Alexander Schekotov3 (+7-095-2548905; schekotov@uipe-ras.scgis.ru); Viktor Chebrov1 (+7-415-2258898; chebr@emsd.iks.ru) 1 Kamchatkian Department, Geophysical Service, Russian Academy of Sciences, PetropavlovskKamchatsky 683006, Russian Federation

Ote-machi,

S42A-0607 1330h POSTER

The Omori formula describing the temporal decrease of aftershock activity is one of few valuable quantitative descriptions of seismicity found so far. Combining the formula with another well-known law about size distribution of earthquakes, Reasenberg and Jones (1989, 1994) developed a statistical method to evaluate probabilities of aftershock occurrence. The method is based on the above two scaling laws. However, the appropriateness of the method depends on two implicit assumptions: 1) The parameter representing the temporal decrease of aftershock activity is the same for large and small aftershock; 2) The size distribution of aftershocks does not change with time. Here we evaluate the validity of these two critical assumptions for probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment. We investigated separately the temporal decrease of large and small aftershocks in detail, using data sets with different threshold magnitude for aftershock activities of the 1995 Kobe earthquake and the 2000 western Tottori earthquake. Both mainshocks are shallow inland earthquakes that occurred in Japan with the same JMA magnitude of M7.3. A most notable fact we found is that the occurrence rate of large aftershocks decreases apparently faster than the one for smaller ones. It seems that the larger the aftershocks, the faster the decay rate. This feature is observed for both aftershock sequences. We now have started to analyze additional sequences in California. Preliminary results suggest a similar behavior. We discuss the meaning of these findings and its significance for probabilistic forecasting of large aftershocks.

Towards Practical, Real-Time Estimation of Spatial Aftershock Probabilities: A Feasibility Study in Earthquake Hazard
Phillip Morrow1 (pj.morrow@ulst.ac.uk) John McCloskey2 (j.mccloskey@ulst.ac.uk) Sandy Steacy2 (4428 7032 4428; s.steacy@ulst.ac.uk) 1 School of Informatics, University of Ulster, Coleraine BT52 1SA, Ireland 2 Geophysics Research Group, University of Ulster, Coleraine BT52 1SA, Ireland It is now widely accepted that the goal of deterministic earthquake prediction is unattainable in the short term and may even be forbidden by nonlinearity in the generating dynamics. This nonlinearity does not, however, preclude the estimation of earthquake probability and, in particular, how this probability might change in space and time; earthquake hazard estimation might be possible in the absence of earthquake prediction. Recently, there has been a major development in the understanding of stress triggering of earthquakes which allows accurate calculation of the spatial variation of aftershock probability following any

2 Tokai University, 3-20-1, Orido, Shimizu 424-8610, Japan 3 Institute of the Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation

4 Chiba University, Ingage-ku, Chiba 263-8522, Japan In 1999 the complex geophysical observatory was created in Kamchatka, Russia under mutual RussianJapanese scientific project. The main purpose of this project is to investigate electromagnetic and other phenomena in connection with earthquakes. The observatory is sited in the place without any sources of industrial noise. The seismic waveforms, acoustic emission, telluric currents, magnetic pulsation and chemical composition of underground water are measured continuously. The measurements of three components of ground displacement velocity is realized by seismometer in the frequency band 0.5-40 Hz with sensitivity

Cite abstracts as: Eos. Trans. AGU, 82(47), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract #####-##, 2001.

F894

2001 Fall Meeting

S42A-0609 1330h POSTER Temporal b-value Variation During Fracture Evolution
Takaki Iwata1 (+44-151-794-5160; iwata@liv.ac.uk) Paul Young1 (+44-151-794-5178; r.p.young@liv.ac.uk) 1 Department of Earth Sciences, Liverpool University, 4 Brownlow Street, Liverpool L69 7GP, United Kingdom There are many studies which mention temporal b-value change before a major earthquake or earthquake swarm. At the Underground Research Laboratory (URL) in Canada, we monitored acoustic emissions (AEs) which occurred during the growth of a major induced fracture. Using the AE data, we investigated the temporal b-value change that accompanied the occurrence of the fracture. The experiment in the URL gave us a unique opportunity to observe the evolution of microcracks into a major fracture. As the sample size is much larger than that used in a classic fracture experiment, data obtained at the URL can bridge the gap between laboratory and field observations. On 15 September 1998, a concrete bulkhead was made to act as a tunnel seal. Nine days after the pouring, around 4:00 on 24 September, significant AE activity started and continued during almost two days. This activity formed a major crack as defined by the spatial distribution of AEs. We investigated temporal b-value changes around this activity. Before this activity, bvalue decreased generally. However, a few hours just before the beginning of this activity and the formation of the macro fracture, the b-value started to increase. We describe the relationships observed between seismic velocity, AE rate, temperature, dehydration and strain in the vicinity of the fracture during its evolution from microcrack coalescence to macro fracture. URL: http://www.liv.ac.uk/seismic High-dynamic range waveform data shows microcracking in mm scale has similar dynamic rupture behavior to earthquakes. Initial phase associated with the quasi-static to quasi-dynamic rupture growth were observed for some events. The critical size of the nucleation zone can be estimated from the initial phase or pre-events. The power law relation between the duration of the initial phase and the critical nucleation size is consistent with the data obtained from friction test as well as some large earthquakes. It was found that the quasi-static rupture growth in a specific scale consists of dynamic fractures of asperities in a smaller scale, and so on. Therefore, the rupture process is considered to be hierarchical and it is expected that the dynamic rupture in a small scale can map out the quasi-static nucleation process of the rupture in a larger scale. Since dynamic motions are easier to detect remotely than static ones, the dialectic relationship between gstatich and gdynamich is thus very helpful for understanding the source preparing of large earthquakes. URL: http://staff.aist.go.jp/xinglin-lei/Studies/ Hasperity.htm

large earthquake. Over the past few years this Coulomb stress technique (CST) has been the subject of intensive study in the geophysics literature and has been extremely successful in explaining the spatial distribution of aftershocks following several major earthquakes. The power of current micro-computers, the great number of local, telemetered seismic networks, the rapid acquisition of data from satellites coupled with the speed of modern telecommunications and data transfer all mean that it may be possible that these new techniques could be applied in a forward sense. In other words, it is theoretically possible today to make predictions of the likely spatial distribution of aftershocks in near-realtime following a large earthquake. Approximate versions of such predictions could be available within, say, 0.1 days after the mainshock and might be continually refined and updated over the next 100 days. The European Commission has recently provided funding for a project to assess the extent to which it is currently possible to move CST predictions into a practically useful time frame so that low-confidence estimates of aftershock probability might be made within a few hours of an event and improved in near-realtime, as data of better quality become available over the following days to tens of days. Specifically, the project aims to assess the extent to which this is scientifically feasible in terms of our understanding of the physical phenomena which control the variation of seismicity following a large event due to stress redistribution and practically possible given present limitations on data availability, data quality and computational or data transfer speeds. The project is divided into a number of elements designed to reflect the temporal sequence of tasks that must be undertaken for the prediction of aftershock hazard. These tasks include determining a time-indexed sequence of slip distributions for both real and synthetic events, calculating a suite of time-indexed stress perturbations and quantitatively comparing predicted and observed aftershock distributions, and developing techniques for predicting likely strong ground motion from the predicted spatial distribution of aftershocks.

S42A-0611 1330h POSTER Analysis of a Century of Instrumentally Recorded Historical Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region
Robert A Uhrhammer (1.510.642.8504; bob@seismo.berkeley.edu) UC Berkeley, Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, 215 McCone Hall 4760, Berkeley, CA 94720-4760, United States The San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR) Historical Earthquake Re-analysis Project (HERP) objective is to characterize spatial and temporal evolution of SFBR seismicity during the initial part of the earthquake cycle as the SFBR emerges from the stress shadow of the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The problem is that the existing Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (BSL) seismicity catalog for the SFBR, which spans most of the past century (1910-present), is inherently inhomogeneous because the location and magnitude determination methodologies have changed, as seismic instrumentation and computational capabilities have improved over time. Creation of a SFBR catalog of seismicity that is homogeneous, that spans as many years as possible, and that includes formal estimates of the uncertainty in the estimated parameters is a fundamental prerequisite for probabilistic studies of SFBR seismicity. The existence of the invaluable BSL seismological archive, containing the original seismograms as well as the original reading/analysis sheets, coupled with the BSL computational capabilities allows the application of modern analytical algorithms towards the problem of determining the source parameters, including formal uncertainties, of the historical SFBR earthquakes. Our approach is to systematically re-analyze the data acquired from the archive to develop a homogeneous SFBR catalog of earthquake location, local magnitude (ML ), moment magnitude (Mw ), and seismic moment tensor (mechanism), including formal uncertainties on all parameters which extends as far back in time as the instrumental records allow and which is complete above appropriate threshold magnitudes. We report on the progress to date.

S42A-0608 1330h POSTER Implications of Secondary Aftershocks for Failure Processes

Susanna J Gross ((303) 492-1039; sjg@colorado.edu) Susanna Gross, 216 UCB CIRES University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States When a seismic sequence with more than one mainshock or an unusually large aftershock occurs, there is a compound aftershock sequence. The secondary aftershocks need not have exactly the same decay as the primary sequence, with the differences having implications for the failure process. When the stress step from the secondary mainshock is positive but not large enough to cause immediate failure of all the remaining primary aftershocks, failure processes which involve accelerating slip will produce secondary aftershocks that decay more rapidly than primary aftershocks. This is because the primary aftershocks are an accelerated version of the background seismicity, and secondary aftershocks are an accelerated version of the primary aftershocks. Real stress perturbations may be negative, and heterogeneities in mainshock stress fields mean that the real world situation is quite complicated. I will first describe and verify my picture of secondary aftershock decay with reference to a simple numerical model of slipping faults which obeys rate and state dependent friction and lacks stress heterogeneity. With such a model, it is possible to generate secondary aftershock sequences with perturbed decay patterns, quantify those patterns, and develop an analysis technique capable of correcting for the effect in real data. The secondary aftershocks are defined in terms of frequency linearized time s(T ), which is equal to the number of primary aftershocks expected by a time T ,

S42A-0610 1330h POSTER Experimental study on the hierarchical rupture process of faults having heterogeneous asperities
Xinglin Lei1 (+81-298-61-3783; xinglin-lei@aist.go.jp) Kinichiro Kusunose1 (+81-298-61-3783; k.kusunose@aist.go.jp) Takashi Satoh1 (+81-298-61-3783; t.satoh@aist.go.jp) Osamu Nishizawa1 (+81-298-61-3971; osamu-nishizawa@aist.go.jp) 1 National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Tsukuba Central 7, Higashi 1-1-1, Tsukuba 305-8567, Japan Earthquake faulting is characterized by nonuniform distributions of rupture velocity, stress drop as well as co-seismic slip, indicating nonuniform distribution of local strength over the earthquake fault. Strong seismic wave is generally radiated from where the rupture velocity or stress drop changes rapidly. Many after shocks, especially strong ones, may take place at the unbroken barriers on the earthquake fault. Therefore, the rupture process of coupled fault asperities is an important rule for understanding the source preparation of earthquake. The authors studied the detailed faulting process (from quasi-static to dynamic rupture) of several naturally healed faults having heterogeneous asperities in rock samples based on the hypocenter distribution of acoustic emission (AE) events. The initial phase of microcracking is also examined with high-dynamic range waveforms. Experimental results indicate that the quasi-static nucleation of the geometrically heterogeneous fault is, in fact, the fracture process of several asperities. Fracture of a asperity contains 1) foreshocks initiated at one or several positions along the edge of the asperity, 2) a few main shocks started at also the edge of the asperity, and 3) after shocks fill out the whole asperity area. The seismic b-value of foreshocks is high (1.0). However, the period of the main shocks shows the minimum b-value around 0.6. Finally, the after shocks associated with an increasing b-value (to 1.0). After the main shocks, local stress around the asperity is partially releases and thus stress redistribution occurs. As a result, the fracture of the neighbor asperities may be initiated or promoted. Fractures of several asperities in the nucleation zone are associated with the short-term precursory fluctuations in the b-value as well as event rate. Since fracturing of an asperity shows a dense spatial clustering, a maximum event rate, and a minimum b-value, multiple minima of b-value can be observed associated with a fault of multiple asperities. These facts indicate that detailed time-space distribution of hypocenter and b-value can be used to identify asperities. However, a careful analysis is required since an asperity may show high and low b-values at different stress stages.

S42A-0612 1330h POSTER A Simple and Testable Model for Earthquake Clustering
Rodolfo Console1 (0039-06-51860417; console@ingv.it) Maura Murru1 (0039-06-51860412; murru@ingv.it) 1 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata, 605, Rome, Rm 00143, Italy Earthquakes are regarded as the realization of a point process modeled by a generalized Poisson distribution. We assume that the Gutenberg-Richter law describes the magnitude distribution of all the earthquakes in a sample, with a constant b value. We model the occurrence rate density of earthquakes in space and time as the sum of two terms, one representing the independent, or spontaneous, activity and the other representing the activity induced by previous earthquakes. The first term depends only on space and is modeled by a continuous function of the geometrical coordinates, obtained by smoothing the discrete distribution of the past instrumental seismicity. The second term also depends on time, and it is factorized in two terms that depend on the space distance (according to an isotropic normal distribution) and on the time difference (according to the generalized Omori law), respectively, from the past earthquakes. Knowing the expected rate density, the likelihood of any realization of the process (actually represented by an earthquake catalog) can be computed straightforwardly. This algorithm can be used in two ways: (1) during the learning phase, for the maximum likelihood estimate of the few free parameters of the model, and (2) for hypothesis testing.

T s t=0 n(t)dt,

where the start time t = 0 is the time of the primary aftershock, and the primary aftershock decay function n(t) is extrapolated forward to the times of the secondary aftershocks. In the absence of secondary sequences the function s(T ) re-scales the time so that approximately one event occurs per new time unit; the aftershock sequence is gone. If this rescaling is applied in the presence of a secondary sequence, the secondary sequence is shaped like a primary aftershock sequence, and can be fit by the same modeling techniques applied to simple sequences. The later part of the presentation will concern the decay of Hector Mine aftershocks as influenced by the Landers aftershocks. Although attempts to predict the abundance of Hector aftershocks based on stress overlap analysis are not very successful, the analysis does do a good job fitting the decay of secondary sequences.

Cite abstracts as: Eos. Trans. AGU, 82(47), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract #####-##, 2001.

2001 Fall Meeting

We demonstrated that this time-dependent model has a significantly better performance than a stationary Poisson model, even if its likelihood is computed excluding the obvious component of main shock-aftershock interaction. A possible use of our model is taking it as a null hypothesis to be compared with other forecast hypotheses that make use of more deterministic rules. foreshocks and aftershocks is restricted to earthquakes of M>=4.0, then there is are significantly more pairs of events within 1 day of each other than expected from a Poisson process. Even when the M>=4.0 catalog is further purged of earthquakes triggered within 2 days by the Landers and Hector Mine mainshocks, there remains an excess of M>=4.0 events within 10 days of each other relative to a Poisson distribution. It can be shown that this excess is due primarily to events in the Southern California Shear Zone. The Poisson probability of one or more M>=4.0 events in any 10 day period in Southern California is 27%. From 19832000 27% of the M>=4.0 events west of the San Andreas Fault were followed in the next 10 days by another M>=4.0 earthquake somewhere in Southern California. However, 40% of the M>=4.0 events in the Southern California Shear Zone from 1983-2000 were followed in the next 10 days by another M>=4.0 event somewhere in Southern California. This observation suggests that the seismicity in Southern California contains non-Poissonian elements.

F895

S42A-0613 1330h POSTER San Andreas Fault, California, M 5.5 or greater Earthquakes 1800-2000
Tousson Toppozada1 (1-916-322-9309; ttoppoza@consrv.ca.gov) Dave Branum1 (dbranum@consrv.ca.gov) Michael Reichle1 Claudia Hallstrom1 1 California Division of Mines and Geology, 801 KStreet, MS 12-32, Sacramento, CA 95814, United States The San Andreas fault has been the most significant source of major California earthquakes since 1800. From 1812 to 1906 it generated four major earthquakes of M 7.2 or greater in two pairs on two major regions of the fault. A pair of major earthquakes occurred on the Central to Southern region, where the 1857 faulting overlapped the 1812 earthquake faulting. And a pair of major earthquakes occurred on the Northern region, where the 1906 faulting overlapped the 1838 earthquake faulting. The 1812 earthquake resulted from a rupture of up to about 200 km, from the region of Cajon Pass to as far as about 50 km west of Fort Tejon (Sieh and others, 1989). This rupture is the probable source of both the destructive 1812.12.8 San Juan Capistrano and the 1812.12.21 Santa Barbara Channel earthquakes. The 1838 earthquakes damage effects throughout the Bay area, from San Francisco to Santa Clara Valley and Monterey, were unequalled by any Bay area earthquake other than the 1906 event. The mainshocks effects, and numerous strong probable aftershocks in the San Juan Bautista vicinity in the following three years, suggest 1838 faulting from San Francisco to San Juan Bautista, and M about 7.4. The 630 km length of the San Andreas fault between San Francisco and Cajon Pass ruptured in the 1838 and 1857 earthquakes, except for about 75 km between Bitterwater and San Juan Bautista. The 1840-1841 probable aftershocks of the 1838 event occurred near San Juan Bautista, and the foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1857 event occurred near Bitterwater. In the Bitterwater area, strong earthquakes continued to occur until the 1885 earthquake of M 6.5. Near Parkfield, 40 to 70 km southeast of Bitterwater, M 5.5 or greater earthquakes have occurred from the 1870s to the 1960s. In the total Bitterwater to Parkfield zone bracketing the northern end of the 1857 rupture, the seismicity and moment release has decreased steadily since 1857, and has tended to migrate southeastward with time. The 1868 earthquake on the Hayward fault is the only major historical event in the East Bay. It was preceded by 12 earthquakes of M 5.5 or greater from 1855 to 1866, within 60 km of the Hayward fault, and was followed by 13 years with no M 5.5 or greater Bay area earthquakes other than aftershocks. The 1906 San Andreas fault event was preceded from 1881 to 1903 by 18 earthquakes of M 5.5 or greater, and was followed by quiescence till 1954 with only 3 earthquakes of M 5.5 or greater. We have observed shorter cycles of seismicity followed by quiescence associated with the other major Bay area earthquakes of 1838, 1868, and 1989. The Bay area has been seismically quiet at the M 5.5 or greater level since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and its 1990 aftershocks. This quiescence contrasts with the ten years before 1989, when five M 5.5 to 6.2 events occurred. The Loma Prieta earthquake is of comparable magnitude to the 1868 Hayward earthquake, and might be expected to be followed by a short quiet period similar to that following 1868.

S42A-0615 1330h POSTER Predicting the Hazard From Large Events Around a Major Earthquake From an Analysis of the Aftershock Sequence
Yosihiko Ogata (81-3-5421-8744; ogata@ism.ac.jp) Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Minami-Azabu 4-6-7, Minato-Ku,, Tokyo 106-8569, Japan We show that the pattern of aftershock activity of a large event provides useful information for assessing the probability of a subsequent large event in an extended neighborhood of the main event (say, within a distance of two degrees). Namely, if the aftershock activity becomes quieter than that expected from the normal decay, the probability of an event of similar size to the main event or larger is several times higher than would be the case if the aftershock activity continued normally. For measuring such an anomaly precisely, we first need to model the normal aftershock activity. In fact, many aftershock sequences are more complex than the simple inverse power decay represented by the modified Omori formula. The epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is a generalized version of the modified Omori formula and better fitted to various aftershock sequences including non-volcanic type swarms. Using the ETAS model, aftershock sequences with several threshold magnitudes are investigated for the 76 mainshocks that occurred in and around Japan during the last three-quarters of a century. The focus is placed on objective examination of whether or not, in an aftershock sequence, there is a significant change-point followed by relative quiescence, that is, a significant lowering of the activity from that predicted by the ETAS model. Relative quiescence can take place regardless of the activity level. It is thus demonstrated that relative quiescence can help to forecast whether or not a large event is more likely than usual to follow shortly in the neighborhood. URL: http://www.ism.ac.jp/ogata/

Prefecture, some two hundreds kilometers west from Tokyo, where great earthquake has been asserted to occur in near future. The network is consisting of five sites spanning about 50km measuring three magnetic and one vertical electric filed variation. The largest part of noises is of local background noises. The pattern recongnition technique is adopted to reduce this kind of noises. Waveform of any signal is transmitted to central station if it is recognized not to be this kinds of noises. We transmit only signal parameters of the noises in order use to indicate the environmental condition around the site. Another large source of noises are of atmospherics. In order to reduce this kind of noises we rely on the lightning monitoring data by means of origin time of events based on the GPS clock. Many of the noises induced by atmospherics are identified by choosing appropriate time window. Source locations of VPS are determined in relation with earthquake epicenter by means of direction finding technique and source location method in line with earthquake hypocenter determination procedure. Remaining signals are investigated in relation to the crustal activity. We focus on the emission properties occurred at around the time of major earthquake of magnitude 5.3 occurred on 3, April 2001, just in the middle of the network. It is found that there were increases of VPS number in correlation with the main shock and the largest aftershock on 1st July. And, there were considerable amount of signals emitted from the epicentral region. However the distribution is not concentrated, but there are considerable scatter of source points around the epicenter. We suspect that there are widespread distribution of perturbed ground water regime in the region of rapid crustal activities as earthquakes and volcanic eruption.

S42A-0617 1330h POSTER Tectonomagnetic Signals Detecting in Geomagnetic Data Series Obtained in Izu Peninsula
Nikolai P Kostrov1 (81-70-5465-7059; nikolai@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp); Yoichi Sasai2 (81-3-5321-1111 Ext. 24923; sasai@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp); Naoto Oshiman3 (g53032@sakura.kudpc.kyoto-u.ac.jp); Yoshimori Honkura4; Yoshinobu Ishikawa1; Shigeru Koyama1; Makoto Uyeshima1 (uyeshima@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp) 1 Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 YAYOI, BUNKYO-KU, Tokyo 1130032, Japan 2 The Disaster Prevention Division, Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Nishi-Shinjuku, 2-8-1, Shinjukuku, Tokyo 163-8001, Japan 3 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan 4 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 1520033, Japan Izu Peninsula is situated in the central part of the Japanese Islands, which is the junction area of the four plates. High tectonic activity has been under way there, including several damaging earthquakes, earthquake swarms, anomalous crustal uplift and volcanic eruptions on the see floor. Observations on some permanent stations have shown decrease in geomagnetic total force with respect to some reference stations before earthquakes. Meanwhile other stations showed no any precursory changes. On the other hand there is no complete model of physical process taken place in that area before and after earthquake. Thus there are problem of searching for specific patterns formed before earthquake. Our recent approach is based on factor analysis of geomagnetic data series to reveal the patterns preceding earthquake. We are studying daily mean night values of total intensity variations relative to Kakioka geomagnetic observatory and Kawazu station located apart from others. Investigation of data obtained in 1991-1994 at 10 stations showed that a specific pattern arose before each of the 5 earthquakes (M2.3-4.8) happened in this period. We supposed that segments of data series are linear combination of new hidden uncorrelated variables (factors) and searched for number of factors in sliding windows. When several factors were revealed we analyzed their correlations with data segments in the window. It turned out that correlations formed a compact cluster approximately a month before earthquake. Moreover, the cluster corresponded to the compact group of stations in the test area. It should be mentioned that stations in the group situated in land whereas earthquakes zone located off the east coast. Analysis is in progress now to give definite conclusion on precursors in geomagnetic data series. We need to do further analysis on other tectonic events as well as to compare tectonically quiet periods with active ones.

S42A-0616 1330h POSTER Characteristics of the Earthquake Related ELF/VLF Band Electromagnetic Field Changes
Yukio Fujinawa1 (81-298-51-1611; fujinawa@bosai.go.jp) Takumi Matsumoto1 (81-298-51-1611; mtakumi@bosai.go.jp) Kozo Takahashi Hiroshi Iitaka2 Sadao Takahashi3 (81-3-3491-7181) 1 National Research Institute for

S42A-0614 1330h POSTER Nonrandom Clustering of Seismicity in Southern California

John E Ebel1 (617-552-8300; ebel@bc.edu) Alan L Kafka1 (617-552-3650; kafka@bc.edu) 1 Weston Observatory, Boston College, 381 Concord Rd., Weston, MA 02493, United States If seismicity patterns are to be used to predict earthquakes, one must identify nonrandom (e.g., nonPoissonian) temporal elements in earthquake catalogs. In this research we took the earthquake catalog of M>=3.0 earthquakes in Southern California from 1983 to 2000 and searched for non-Poissonian elements in the seismicity. When foreshocks and aftershocks are removed from the catalog, the seismicity is indistinguishable from a Poisson process with a very high level of confidence. However, when the catalog purged of

Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, 3-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0006, Japan

2 National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, 1-1-1, Umezono, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8568, Japan 3 Sankosha Corporation, 4-3-8, Oosaki, Shinagawa, Tokyo 141-0032, Japan The pulse-like signals in the ELF/VLF (VPS) and LF ranges have been reported to correlate temporarily with the occurrence of earthquake in the very short term. But in order to investigate the intrinsic relationship with earthquake we need to eliminate noises as far as possible and to know source location of those signals. Here we present an extended observational result following previous works (Fujinawa et al, 1997, 2001), which suggest that slight radiations are emitted from the epicentral region of major earthquakes though large signals are emitted in the region of some several hundreds kilometers around the epicenter. VPS are recorded by an observation network in the Shizuoka

Cite abstracts as: Eos. Trans. AGU, 82(47), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract #####-##, 2001.

F896

2001 Fall Meeting

S42A-0620 1330h POSTER Seismic Wave Velocity Change and Stress Build-up in the Crust of the Kanto-Tokai Region
Muneyoshi Furumoto1 (81-76-264-5733; furumoto@hakusan.s.kanazawa-u.ac.jp) Yoshihiro Hiramatsu1 (81-76-264-5734; yoshizo@hakusan.s.kanazawa-u.ac.jp) Yuko Ichimori1 Nobuhiko Hayashi1 Takashi Satoh2 (satoh@gsj.go.jp) 1 Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, Kanazawa University, Kakuma, Kanazawa 9201192, Japan 2 Geological Japan Elastic wave velocities in rocks show large stress dependence in a number of laboratory experiments. The dependence is due to stiffening by closure of structural defects with increasing compressive stress. Thus, the stress dependence can be used as a potent tool for measuring the stress in the crust. However, the seismological interest in the scheme seems to be lowered, since many studies have given negative results on the detection of the secular velocity change. In this report we show the first clear evidence of the secular velocity increase in the upper crust which corresponds to the tectonic stress accumulation. The study area is the Kanto-Tokai region, Japan, which is one of the most tectonically active regions in the world. During the period from 1979 to 1986, seismic waves from seven detonations, about 500 kg of powder charge, at the same location were observed at 15 stations. Large temporal P-wave travel time changes (more than 10 msec) in the crust were observed. We find that the temporal variation is the response of the crustal rocks to two components of stress change, the ocean tidal load and the secular stress accumulation. From the tidal component we estimate the stress sensitivity of the velocity change to be of the order of 1 per MPa. The inferred annual rate of fractional velocity incease dvvyear caused by the stress accumulation in the upper crust is of the order of 103 year. If the stress sensitivity obtained above can also applied to the secular component, the stress accumulation rate in the crust is estimated to be on the order of kPayear. The results indicate that the monitoring of the stress state in the crust can be carried out by precise measurements of seismic wave velocity. Survey of Japan, Tsukuba 305-8567, an asperity with the largest coseismic moment release. The result of the OBS observation in 2000 also shows almost no seismicity in the same gap, separating the aftershock area into two parts with different seismicity pattern: In the trenchward half, many earthquakes during the present observation are located within clusters identical to those in aftershock period, indicating these clusters persistently active. In contrast, microseismicity in the landward half does not show evident cluster pattern as in the aftershock distribution. In the trenchward area, the moment release in the 1994 mainshock was significantly smaller, suggesting weaker seismic coupling. The different pattern of the seismicity of the inter-seismic period revealed by the present study may be correlated to such variation in interplate coupling strength.

S42A-0618 1330h POSTER Testing for premonitory patterns based on critical point dynamics
Gert Zoeller1 (+49-331-977-1175; gert@agnld.uni-potsdam.de) Sebastian Hainzl2 (+49-331-977-5409; hainzl@geo.uni-potsdam.de) 1 Institute of Physics, University of Potsdam POB 60 15 53, Potsdam 14415, Germany 2 Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Potsdam POB 60 15 53, Potsdam 14415, Germany We test the hypothesis that large earthquakes are preceded by critical point dynamics in space and in time. While several cases of growing spatial correlation length and accelerating moment release before large earthquakes have been documented, it is not clear how often these patterns occur without a subsequent mainshock, respectively a mainshock occurs without a premonitory pattern. Therefore, we have derived a technique based on a comparison with random (surrogate) data, which allows to map probabilities in space and time for the occurrence of a critical point anomaly. We apply this technique to both, growing spatial correlation length and accelerating moment release, in order to quantify the correlations between premonitory patterns and large earthquakes. Applying the method to California seismicity, we observe clear correlations between critical point anomalies and subsequent mainshock activity. However, a systematic application of power law fits to the data can also lead to high false alarm rates and misleading results. We discuss different approaches with respect to their suitability for practical forecasting purposes.

S42A-0622 1330h POSTER

Identication of Seismic Gap and Quiescence by Way of Monitoring Spatio-temporal Changes in Seismic Energy Releases and Recurrence Patterns

S42A-0619 1330h POSTER A Search for Temporal Variations in Wave-Propagation Characteristics Associated with the 1993 Parkeld Aseismic Transient
Paul G. Silver1 (202-478-8834; silver@dtm.ciw.edu) Fenglin Niu1 (202-478-8837; niu@dtm.ciw.edu) Robert M. Nadeau2 (510-486-7312; nadeau@seismo.berkeley.edu) Thomas V. McEvilly2 (510-486-7347; tom@seismo.berkeley.edu) 1 Department of Terrestrial Magnetism, Carnegie Institution of Washington, 5241 Broad Branch Road, N.W., Washington, DC 20015, United States 2 Seismological Lab., Univ. of California, Berkeley, 207 McCone Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720-4760, United States Extracting subsurface deformation information from temporal changes in the seismic properties of the crust has been a long-time pursuit of seismologists. One of the more promising approaches to this problem has been the comparison of the codas of similar events occurring at different times and recorded at the same station. If one forms a cross correlation within a time window centered on elapsed time t, the lag time (t) of the cross correlation is then a measure of the temporal change in the medium (ignoring the contribution from differential event location). The variation can be due either to a temporal change in velocity, or a change in the location of scatterers that produce the coda. This approach has been successfully applied to similar events that have followed major earthquakes. The change appears to reflect the gradual post-seismic healing of cracks in the shallowest crust. We have applied this same approach to the more general problem of aseismic deformation. In particular we have studied the dataset generated by a decade of events recorded by a network of borehole seismometers in the area of Parkfield, California (HRSN). While no large events occurred during this period, there was a well documented aseismic transient that was observed on a variety of geodetic and seismic instruments in 1993, and was accompanied by four magnitude 4+ earthquakes. We wanted to determine whether there was an observable change in the medium accompanying this transient. We analyzed several tight clusters of similar events and computed (t) for all pairs of events in a cluster. We commonly observed excursions in (t) ranging from 1 to 10ms. Because the size of the variation is small, it is necessary to distinguish between true temporal variation, and variation that is due to slight differences in earthquake location. Given the differential location of the two events, it is possible to place a bound on the maximum excursion in (t) due to this cause. If the observed variation is greater than this value, then we consider it to be a candidate for true temporal variation. Most of the observed variation can indeed be explained by differential earthquake location. There remains, however, a subset of the data that may be consistent with a temporally varying medium. Analysis of one of the clusters, for example, suggests a temporal change that is synchronous with the timing of the 1993 transient event.

Yuzo Toya1 (ytoya@eos.hokudai.ac.jp) Minoru Kasahara1 (mkasa@eos.hokudai.ac.jp) 1 Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University, Institute of Seismology and Volcanology Hokkaido University N10,W8, Sapporo, HOK 060-0810, Japan

S42A-0621 1330h POSTER Microseismicity in the inter-seismic period in the rupture area of the 1994 Sanriku-Oki Earthquake by ocean bottom seismographic observation
Asako Kuwano1 (+81-22-225-1950; kuwano@aob.geophys.tohoku.ac.jp); Shinji Yoneshima2 (shinji@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp); Ryota Hino1 (hino@aob.geophys.tohoku.ac.jp); Minoru Nishino1 (nishino@aob.geophys.tohoku.ac.jp); Hajime Shiobara3 (shio@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp); Toshinori Sato4 (satot@earth.s.chiba-u.ac.jp); Junzo Kasahara3 (kasa2@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp); Hiromi Fijimoto1 (fujimoto@aob.geophys.tohoku.ac.jp) 1 Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Aramaki-Aza-Aoba, Aoba, Sendai 980-8578, Japan 2 Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Minamidai 1-15-1, Nakano, Tokyo 164-0014, Japan 3 Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Yayoi 1-1-1, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-1132, Japan 4 Faculty of Science, Chiba Unversity, Yayoi-Cho 1-33, Inage, Chiba 263-0022, Japan The off-Sanriku region, northern part of the Japan Trench subduction zone, is characterized by high seismicity and large (M>7) earthquakes occur almost once per decade. In fall 2000, we observed microseismicity in the rupture area of the 1994 Sanriku-Oki Earthquake (Mw 7.7) using an Ocean Bottom Seismometer(OBS)network to probe temporal change in seismicity by comparing the hypocenter distribution at present and that of the aftershock activity. Land GPS network data shows that the ultra-slow post seismic failure has ceased and interplate coupling is recovering in this area. We expect that present seismicity pattern is different from that of the aftershock activity reflecting such change. The previous OBS study on the aftershock distribution of the 1994 earthquake showed that the aftershocks were distributed over the entire rupture area forming many clusters, except a gap in aftershock activity in the central part corresponding to

This study presents a technique to graphically illustrate seismic gap and seismic quiescence in the spacetime history of seismicity. There have been many attempts in the past to identify seismic gaps by classifying large seismic events into rather rough categories, while at the same time, seismic quiescence anomalies have been recognized in some artificially modified catalogs, e.g., declustered ones. Ideally, however, the seismicity should be treated as a continuous and dynamic process if possible, besides testing/confirming the homogeneity and completeness of catalogs in use. Here, we attempt to delineate seismic gaps and quiescence zones by mapping the spatio-temporal distributions of seismic energy releases and inter-event times in a selected magnitude range of events, along the subduction zones near Japan. First, the distribution of seismic energy releases and their cumulative values are described in a series of maps and a space-time diagram along the subduction zone. The cumulative seismic energy (described in log E is obtained by summing the energy equivalent to all the sampled earthquakes within a unit space-time window, using the Gutenberg-Richters equation for each event: logE=11.8+1.5MS (assumed MJM A roughly equals MS for M>=4), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Catalog (1926.0-2001.5; Depth<=60km). Importantly, the sampling window size for each segment of the subduction zone was decided in reference to known fault parameter estimates (dimension LxW) of a recent characteristic event in the study area. Generating these diagrams helps highlight the areas of relatively low cumulative seismic energy release and their time history. Then, another series of maps and a space-time diagram of the inter-event times for a given magnitude class are produced. The graphical representation of inter-event time distribution well depict some behaviors of local seismic activities, such as seismic quiescence, migration of epicenters, and some site-specific/characteristic patterns of aftershock sequences. Finally, these two sets of graphs are compared and analyzed to locate some zones of apparent seismic gap and quiescence. Studying the shallow seismic activities along the subduction zones near Japan using the technique, for instance, helped reveal some seismic gaps and ongoing seismic quiescence zones. These identified regions include the eastern off-shore Hokkaido, Iwate Oki, Tokaido Oki, Bouso Oki, Bungo-Suido, and AshizuriMisaki Oki. Particularly, seismic quiescence can be clearly illustrated in the space-time diagrams of interevent times for M>=6 events in the case of eastern offshore Hokkaido, and M>=4 for the Tokai region. As far as can be observed from both space-time diagrams of cumulative energy release and inter-event times for each case, there seems to be clear deficiencies in seismic energy releases in these areas. In future, we intend to continue our investigations further and compare these results with some geodetic strain accumulation estimates to obtain rough estimates of the accumulated strain or the deficiencies.

Cite abstracts as: Eos. Trans. AGU, 82(47), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract #####-##, 2001.

2001 Fall Meeting

S42A-0623 1330h POSTER

F897

S42B MC: Hall D Thursday 1330h

Bumps, Lumps, and Clumps in the Mantles Midsection II (joint with T, V, DI, MR)

Presiding: C McCammon, Universitt

Electromagnetic Anomalies Prior to Large Earthquakes in Greece: A Study of Their Behavior Through Laboratory Experiments, Fault Models and the Geotectonic Structure of Each Focal Area

Bayreuth; C Bina, Northwestern University; G Helrich, University of Bristol

S42B-0624 1330h POSTER On the Relative Variations of P and S Velocity in the Mantle

Thus the effect of cold temperature must have been counteracted by a petrologic anomaly. Furthermore, seismic anisotropy at depths where weakly anisotropic -phase should dominate suggests the presence of a highly anisotropic phase instead. Two leading candidates for the petrologic anomaly are the presence of metastable olivine (-phase) or volatiles brought down by subduction. Both would lower seismic wave speeds in the transition zone and could trigger deep earthquakes. For metastable olivine, it must also develop lattice-preferred orientations to account for the observed anisotropy. For hydrous minerals or free fluids, their shear-wave speeds may be slow enough to provide a large contrast (10%) against coexisting minerals, which is needed to develop a finescale, laminated structure. However, the lack of a consistent pattern in fault plane solutions of outboard earthquakes does not support preferred orientations of fluid pockets as a mechanism to trigger these earthquakes. Moreover, the amount of hydrous minerals needed to reduce seismic wave speeds may also make the entire slab buoyant, prohibiting subduction.

Konstantinos Eftaxias1 (ceftax@cc.uoa.gr); Panayiotis Kapiris1 (pkapiris@cc.uoa.gr); Vassilios Hadjicontis1 (vhadji@cc.uoa.gr); Elizabeth Dologlou2 (edologl@cc.uoa.gr); Nikos Bogris1 (nbogris@cc.uoa.gr); John Kopanas1 (zakekfe@otenet.gr); George Antonopoulos1 (sv8rx@otenet.gr); Athanassios Peratzakis2 (ceftax@cc.uoa.gr); David Ziplimiani3 (ceftax@cc.uoa.gr) 1 Solid Earth Physics Institute, Panepistimiopolis Zografos, Athens 157 84, Greece

Michael Antolik1 (627-495-9604; antolik@seismology.harvard.edu) Yu J. Gu1 (gu@seismology.harvard.edu) G oran Ekstr om1 (ekstrom@eps.harvard.edu) Adam M. Dziewonski1 (dziewons@eps.harvard.edu) 1 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, 20 Oxford St., Cambridge, MA 02138, United States The question of chemical heterogeneity within the mantle may be best addressed by studying the relative variation of shear and compressional velocities. Several of the recent models obtained through joint inversion for shear and either compressional or bulk sound velocity show a clear increase in the ratio R = lnVs / lnVp with depth and/or a significant negative correlation between shear and bulk sound velocity for some distance above the core-mantle boundary [e.g., Su and Dziewonski, 1997; Masters et al., 2000; Ishii and Tromp, 1999]. This may indicate influences on velocity heterogeneity from factors other than thermal structure. To effectively estimate the relative variations of shear to compressional velocity with depth throughout the whole mantle requires the simultaneous use of many different types of data (i.e., travel times of different types as well as longer period data such as surface wave velocities or complete waveforms). This is because of the vastly different depth sensitivities of these data sets. Using the discontinuous spline parameterization of Gu et al. [2001], we jointly invert for P and S velocity variations in the mantle using absolute and differential travel times, surface wave phase velocities and whole seismic waveforms. We invert for perturbations to a target 3-D model of shear velocity (scaled by a constant factor for P velocity). The results confirm an increase with depth in R over most of the lower mantle, but show as much as a factor of two higher value in the upper mantle over previous estimates. In addition, we observe a strong decorrelation between compressional and shear velocities at the top of the lower mantle and extending to roughly 1000 km depth. This feature is occasionally seen in comparisons of correlations between other published velocity models [Becker and Boschi, in press] and seems to be supported by the very low variance reduction obtained for P wave travel times by our starting scaled shear velocity model. We investigate the robustness and implications of these results.

S42B-0626 1330h POSTER The Origin of the Type III Inclusions in Diamonds Rened Using Calculated Phase Relations in the System En-Di-Jd
Tibor Gasparik (631-632-8213; gasparik@sbmp04.ess.sunysb.edu) CHiPR and Department of Geosciences, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY 11794, United States Phase relations in the system Mg2Si2O6CaMgSi2O6-NaAlSi2O6 (En-Di-Jd) were calculated using the ternary Redlich-Kister equation to express the mixing properties of the pyroxene and majoritic garnet solutions, and the previously published experimental data for this system and its constituent binaries. The resulting phase relations were empirically adjusted to account for the effects of additional elements, particularly Fe, and then used to refine the estimate for the conditions of origin of four type III pyroxene inclusions found in diamonds from Sao Luiz, Brazil (Hutchison et al., CMP, 1991). The unusual compositions of the type III inclusions are close to En39Di20Jd41 (mol %) for the two inclusions with higher Na contents (BZ237A and BZ259B), and close to En52Di17Jd31 for the two inclusions with lower Na contents (BZ242B and BZ246A). For the bulk compositions limited to the ternary system, the resulting phase relations suggest that the two inclusions with higher Na contents formed from a majoritic garnet precursor, which could coexist at the upper limit of its stability in the lower mantle with MgSiO3 perovskite, CaSiO3 perovskite, NaAlSiO4 (calcium ferrite structure) and stishovite at 25.5 GPa and 2010oC. This is close to the original estimate of 25 GPa and 2000oC by Gasparik and Hutchison (EPSL, 2000). These conditions may exceed the stability of pyrope, thus allowing coexisting TAPP, found in association with one of the type III inclusions (BZ259B). Stishovite could be replaced with (Mg,Fe)O in compositions not limited to the ternary system. Despite the high Na contents of the two Na-rich type III inclusions, the resulting assemblage could be produced by a wide range of possible mantle compositions. However, the same phase relations suggest that the two type III inclusions with lower Na contents could coexist only with MgSiO3 perovskite at 24 GPa and 1980oC. Hence, all four inclusions could be produced by a chondritic mantle, but not eclogite or pyrolite, which are too high in Ca to produce the two inclusions with lower Na contents.

2 University of Athens, Physics Department, Panepistimiopolis Zografos, Athens 157 84, Greece

3 Institute of Geophysics, Georgian Academy of Sciences, 1 Alexidze Str., Tbilisi 380093, Georgia

Clear precursory electromagnetic (EM) anomalies were recorded at Zante station (37.76o N-20.76o E) in W. Greece, at MHz and kHz frequency bands, prior to the three destructive earthquakes occurred in Greece, on May 13 1995 with Ms =6.6 at Kozani-Grevena area, on June 15,1995 with Ms =6.5 at Egio-Eratini area and on September 7, 1999 with Ms =5.9 at Athens area. The field detected EM signals and their wavelet analysis showed the following remarkable and compatible with the international experience, features: (i) a significant increase of the EM activity in both frequency bands (MHz and kHz) before the earthquakes; (ii) a dramatic shift of their frequency content from MHz to kHz as the earthquake approaches; (iii) an electromagnetic quiescence just before the main shock and (iv) a total absence of EM signals during and after the main shock. By means also of laboratory experiments on acoustic (AE) and (EM) emissions we attempted to investigate similarities in the time evolution of the frequency content between laboratory emissions and the field detected EM anomalies prior to the earthquakes. We found that: (i) both field EM anomalies and laboratory emissions showed a significant acceleration in their event rate activity before the earthquake and rock failure respectively and (ii) the reported by Ohnaka and Mogi frequency shift (from MHz to kHz) of the AE activity during the last deformation stage of rock samples, was in full agreement with the observed shift (from MHz to kHz.) of the EM anomalies before the earthquakes. Features (iii) and (iv) are also compatible with laboratory experiments All the above interpretation and results yield to the suspicion that the study of precursory VLF and VHF electromagnetic anomalies might be possible to illuminate from another viewpoint the last stages of the earthquake preparation process. Moreover these EM anomalies have revealed interesting correlations between the structure of pre-seismic sequence of electromagnetic anomalies and the results from the geotectonic, seismological and geodetic studies on the corresponding earthquakes. These electromagnetic anomalies preceding each individual earthquake generally differ, in the frequency bands where they appear, the number of distinct electromagnetic anomalies in each frequency band, their duration and their lead-time. In this paper, we show that these observed differences are strongly correlated with, the fault model characteristics and the focal geotectonic structure of the associated earthquake. The simultaneous presence/absence of VHF anomalies with the VLF recordings are related to the presence/absence of surface faults; the number of distinct VLF signals is related to the number of faults that will be activated; the duration and lead-time differences are related to the geotectonic structure heterogeneities. These findings strongly support the hypothesis that these EM anomalies seem to be specific signs of the preparation process for earthquakes.

S42B-0625 1330h POSTER Seismic Anisotropy in the Transition Zone of the Mantle: Implications for Mantle Dynamics and Deep Earthquakes
Michael R Brudzinski1 (217-244-6048; brudzins@uiuc.edu) Wang-Ping Chen1 (w-chen@uiuc.edu) 1 University of Illinois, Geology Department, MC 102, 245 NHB, 1301 W. Green St., Urbana, IL 61801, United States We demonstrate a rare, unequivocal case of seismic anisotropy in the transition zone beneath the TongaFiji Region. In many triplicate, broadband waveforms, horizontally polarized shear-waves (SH) arrive up to 3 s earlier than vertically polarized shear-waves (SV). Using waveforms from earthquakes of different depths, we isolate the anisotropic region to lie mainly in the transition zone where the speed of SV is approximately 1% slower than that of SH. The anisotropic zone coincides with the occurrence of outboard earthquakes - a subhorizontal swath of deep (>300 km) seismicity extending nearly 800 km farther to the west of the Wadati-Benioff zone. Cold temperature, as evident from deep earthquakes, is expected to increase seismic wave speeds. However, P and SH wave speeds are not fast in the source region of outboard earthquakes [Brudzinski and Chen, JGR, 21661, 2000; Chen and Brudzinski, Science, 2475, 2001], and SV wave speeds are even slower than SH wave speeds.

S42B-0627 1330h POSTER Thermal Conductivity of Garnets and the Middle Mantle
Paul Arthur Giesting1 (314-935-7292; paulg@levee.wustl.edu) Anne M Hofmeister1 (314-935-7440; hofmeist@levee.wustl.edu) 1 Washington University, Dept. Earth Planetary Science 1 Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130, United States The thermal conductivity (k) of garnet phases is calculated from a formula originating with Debye, adapted to treat the vibrations in a solid as a collection of damped harmonic oscillators. Our model utilizes phonon lifetimes obtained from Kramers-Kronig analyses of existing IR reflectivity spectra, as well as new measurements presented here, and calculates k at ambient conditions. Two series of natural garnets were investigated: (1) X3 Al2 Si3 O12 , where the X site holds varying amounts of Mg, Fe2+ , and Ca (pyrope-almandines with subordinate grossular); and (2) Ca3 Y2 Si3 O12 , where the Y site holds Al and/or Fe3+ (grossular-andradites). The model predicts k at

Cite abstracts as: Eos. Trans. AGU, 82(47), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract #####-##, 2001.