TO: FR: DT: RE:

Interested Parties Michael Ramlet, Meghan McCarthy and Kyle Dropp January 30, 2014 Real-Time Public Reactions to the State of the Union and Responses

President Obamas address on healthcare drew generally positive reviews from Independent voters, but at a much lower intensity than Democrats. The difference between Independents and Democrats often hovered around 50 points, a spread that could spell trouble for Democrats at the polls come November. In contrast, the Republican response from Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) had only a 20-point intensity difference between Republicans and Independents. Furthermore, Independents increased their positive ratings of McMorris Rodgers speech and Sen. Mike Lees (RUT) Tea Party response by 10 points when they said the country could not return to the pre-Obamacare days. This is the first video dial test poll conducted by The Morning Consult and includes a substantially larger sample of respondents than traditional dial tests conducted by cable news programs and private pollsters. The four video dial tests cover nearly all healthcare comments delivered during the President Barack Obamas State of the Union Address, U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgerss Republican response, and Senator Mike Lees Tea Party Response. The video dial tests were conducted on Wednesday, January 29, 2014, the day after the State of the Union, among a national sample of 1,329 likely 2014 voters recruited via Survey Sampling International, Inc. (SSI) online. Respondents were randomly assigned to view a single video message and then instructed to use a slider on the screen to describe how favorably they felt toward a brief statement. The slider values ranged from -100 (highly unfavorable) to 100 (highly favorable) and recorded four measures per second.

Topline Dial Test Findings Videos and Topline Results: http://bit.ly/1n1vTkg Summary Analysis Memo: Crosstab Dial Test Findings President Barack Obama Part 1: http://bit.ly/1aKV376 President Barack Obama Part 2: http://bit.ly/1a4uB7J Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers: http://bit.ly/1bb3rr3 Senator Mike Lee: http://bit.ly/1fm1X0X Example Video Dial Tests President Barack Obama Part 1: http://stanford.io/1n1GyeZ President Barack Obama Part 2: http://stanford.io/1dbs5rf Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers: http://stanford.io/1iQC3Xe Senator Mike Lee: http://stanford.io/1cA9DwO

Overall Findings: Pre-Existing Conditions Resonate for Democrats Survey participants who identified as Independents liked when the president talked about people not being able to be denied health insurance because of a pre-existing condition. Voters all across the political spectrum responded positively when the president said his law ensures that if misfortune strikes, you dont have to lose everything. Not Going Back Works for Republicans Independents approved of GOP responses acknowledging that our country cannot return to the days of health care before Obamacare. This was the first time Republicans heavily emphasized that they do not want to simply repeal the entire health reform law. McMorris Rodgers Message Slightly More Appeal to Independents As expected, partisanship prevailed in respondents overall ratings. Democrats generally rated statements from President Obama favorably and statements from Republicans negatively. Republicans did the opposite, but Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers tested slightly ahead of the President with Independents. Independents Dinged the President Obama for Partisanship Independent voters did not like when the president poked fun at Republicans 40-plus votes to repeal the health reform law, recording negative ratings. However, the snarky line did elicit positive responses from younger viewers. Women Still More Supportive of President Obama Women showed greater positive intensity during President Obamas address. McMorris Rodgers received greater positive intensity than Lee among women voters. Young Voters Responded Favorably to the Call to Sign-Up Younger viewers recorded positive responses to the presidents call for Americans to help one another get insurance. Speaking to this age group is important to the Obama administration, as younger, often healthier, people are needed to subsidize insurance costs on the state and federal exchanges. Its About Regular People President Obama found a new message that resonated well with Republicans and people who disapprove of the Affordable Care Act. The president gained 40 points in approval when he spoke about Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear of Kentuckys efforts to get regular people enrolled in health insurance. It wasnt enough to knock him into positive territory, but the message resonated at the same levels with conservatives as talking points on pre-existing conditions did. Humanize It Personal stories and humor appealed most across party and generational lines. VIDEO DIAL TEST RESULTS President Obama Part #1 The presidents first health care segment garnered positive ratings from Independent and Democrat voters, with a notable 10 point increase among independents when the president said the Affordable Care Act would protect people from financial ruin due to health problems. Democrats recorded ratings around 50, Independents hovered around 30, and Republicans vacillated between -30 and -50. Viewers who approve of the ACA recorded steadily increasing positive ratings.

Viewers who disapprove of the ACA recorded primarily negative views, but showed some positive increases when the president mentioned people being protected from financial hardship due to health costs and the fact that people cannot be denied coverage for a preexisting condition. This group recorded the highest positive rate when the president used the line if misfortune strikes, you dont have to lose everything, but did not get above -30. Impressions decreased as the president mentioned expanding coverage to young adults and Medicaid enrollments, back down to -50. But they increased back up to -30 when the president mentioned that people with pre-existing conditions could not be denied health insurance. Viewers broken down by age recorded similar reactions to Obamas first segment of health comments. All recorded positive ratings that trended up as Obama spoke about health reform protecting people from financial hardship and granting coverage to people with preexisting conditions. However, all flat lined when the president listed the number of Medicare enrollees and young people who had gotten coverage due to the ACA.

President Obama Part #2 Independents did not like when the president poked fun at Republicans efforts to repeal the health reform law, recording negative ratings. Conversely, the president got a 40 point increase from Republican voters when he spoke about health insurance benefitting regular people. Democrats had positive impressions that increased throughout the clip; Independents started out with negative impressions that slowly increased but did not end in a positive range; Republicans disapproved but responded positively to some messages from Obama. People who disapprove of the ACA recorded negative impressions, but like those who identified as Republican voters, they noted a 30 point increase when Obama listed the regular people who would benefit from health insurance coverage. Younger viewers age 18-29 recorded the most positive ratings of this segment, during which President Obama teased Republicans about voting to repeal the health reform law 40+ times and urged Americans to help one another sign up for health insurance. Ratings decreased into negative ranges as viewers got older.

Cathy McMorris Rodgers: Independents registered a 10-point positive increase when McMorris Rodgers said the country could not go back to the way things were before the Affordable Care Act, and those ratings continued to increase in response to McMorris Rodgers saying health care choices should be personal. Republicans ratings mirrored those of independents, but at rates that were about 10 points higher. Democrats increasingly disapproved of the messages, with a small increase when McMorris Rodgers said we could not return to the health system we had before the ACA. Those who disapproved of the ACA recorded increasingly positive views, particularly when McMorris Rodgers noted that the health reform law was wrong for the country. People who approve of the ACA recorded negative views. McMorris Rodgers elicited negative ratings from people age 65+ when she mentioned people receiving cancellation notices, and those age 18-29 slowly decreased their ratings throughout the speech. However, nearly all age groups increased when McMorris Rodgers said health care decisions should be personal and not the purview of the government.

Tea Party Response: Senator Mike Lee Independents registered a 10-point approval of Sen. Mike Lees comments that the country could not go back to the old health care system, which gave too much power to health insurance companies, but needed a different solution from the ACA, which gave too much power to the government. Republicans steadily approved of Lees comments, always staying in the positive range. Democrats disapproved, with a quick 20 point decrease coming when Lee said the ACA gave government too much power. Viewers who disapprove of the ACA registered increasingly positive reactions to Lees speech, but flat lined when he mentioned that reformers in the House and Senate were working on alternatives. Those who approve of the law registered negative reactions, but recorded a 10 point increase when Lee said the old system gave too much power to insurance companies. Viewers were split by age on Lees comments, with seniors largely disapproving, followed by people age 18-29. Viewers from age 34-64 recorded increasingly positive views throughout Lees speech.