Uncertainty and variability

Problem: model showing why correctly modeling uncertainty and variability can impact the results of a model. Uncertainty can only b (and sampled) once per iteration, whereas variability should be different for each subject modeled

We randomly sample 100 individuals in a region and 8 have a disease. How many infected individuals are there in areas A-E within the region? n s proportion of infection (uncertain) #NAME? 100 8

areas within a region population in the region Correct uncertainty A 10,000 #NAME? B 5,000 #NAME? C 6,000 #NAME? D 1,000 #NAME? E 9,000 #NAME? Total infected in region next week #NAME?

Duplicating uncertainty #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

Overlay these two cells to see how a simple assumption can have large impact int he results. The SD of the uncertainty calculation is twice as large as for the variability calculation!

This model illustrates a specific risk modeling technique and/or method. The techniques and methods shown within this model may be used freely by anyone.
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ertainty and variability

e results of a model. Uncertainty can only be represented odeled

Proportion of infection (varies per area) Alternative #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

o cells to see how on can have large lts. The SD of the lation is twice as he variability

modeling technique methods shown within

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d a free @RISK traing too, ModelAssist.html.