1

C H A P T E R O N E
!ts cclinc Timc in Amcrica:
A Short History
H
allway into thc last ccntury, Amcrica was nishcd. r so it
sccmcd. n 4 ctobcr 1957, thc Sovict Union bccamc thc
rst spacc powcr in history, launching its Sputnik (satcllitc) into
orbit and striking tcrror into thc Amcrican soul. Tis was a shock
which hit many pcoplc as hard as Pcarl Harbor, rccallcd a com
mcntator lor thc Mutual 8roadcasting Systcm, thcn onc ol thc 8ig
Four nctworks. !t was a lrightlul blow. Amcrica had grown solt
and complaccnt, bclicving that it was Numbcr nc in cvcry
thing. Yct now thc country had bccn upstagcd by its mortal rival.
1

Sputnik stoppcd transmitting altcr thrcc wccks, tumbling
out ol thc sky two months latcr. Shortlivcd as it was, thc wobbly
contraption a mcrc twcntythrcc inchcs across had a dcvas
tating impact on thc Amcrican psychc. Soulscarching and scll
dcprccation turncd into a national obscssion and into a chronic
rccx as thc ccntury progrcsscd. !n thc midst ol a crashing stock
markct and a dccpcning rcccssion, thc ctobcr surprisc gavc birth
to a school ol thought that would outlivc Sputnik and rcgularly
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 1 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
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rcturn to tormcnt thc Amcrican imagination all thc way into thc
twcnty rst ccntury. Lcts call it cclinism.
2
Tc basic thcmc Amcrica as hasbccn is rccyclcd about
cvcry tcn ycars. !ts dcclinc timc in Amcrica, thc stock drama
trumpcts, and it is stagcd ancw at thc cnd ol cach dccadc
typically, as thc sun is about to sct on an administration whilc
prcsidcntial candidatcs bcgin jockcying lor position. As in thc
handwringing ovcr Sputnik, thc alarm docs in lact spring lrom
rcal troublc, bc it cconomic hardship or military mislortunc. co
nomically, this rst wavc ol cclinism bcars an uncanny rcscm
blancc to thc last, which rosc altcr thc Crash ol 2008. !n thc lall
ol 1957, thc cconomy shrank by 4 pcrccnt, in thc spring ol 1958,
by an appalling 10 pcrccnt. Tc numbcrs lor 2008 and 2009 wcrc
minus 5 pcrccnt and minus 6 pcrccnt. So thcrc is always a ratio
nal basis lor this kind ol angst attack. Just as rcgularly, though,
anxicty cxpands into Spcnglcrian visions ol lorcordaincd dccay. A
crisis is not just a crisis but a portcnt ol doom akin to thc writing
on thc wall in thc 8ook ol anicl. Just changc namcs and placcs,
and thc prophccy is up to datc.
oom is onc ol thc oldcst storics ol mankind. Tc 8ook ol
anicl is thc biblical original that has sct thc pattcrn lor a rich
tradition ol dcclinc and dcstruction in Vcstcrn thought. Vhcn
thc Mene, Mene, Tekel U-Pharsin
3
appcars out ol nowhcrc, 8aby
lons astrologcrs and soothsaycrs thc policy cxpcrts and pollstcrs
ol that timc arc ummoxcd. anicl, thc captivc Jcwish sagc has
to bc summoncd. Hc quickly dcciphcrs thc ccric script on thc wall.
King 8clshazzar and his courticrs had committcd blasphcmy by
praying to idols. Tc God in whosc hand thy brcath is, an
icl inlorms thc king, hast thou not gloricd. ivinc rctribution
was at hand. 8clshazzar had bccn wcighcd and lound wanting.
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 2 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
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Tcrclorc, God has numbcrcd thc days ol your kingdom. !n that
night was 8clshazzar, thc king ol thc Chaldcans, slain.
Tc modcrn vcrsion ol this lcgcnd, rctold dcccnnially, lollows
thc biblical modcl: Having gonc astray, Amcrica will bc callcd to
account lor thc sin ol pridc or sloth. Likc 8abylons, its bcst days
arc ovcr. As this is a sccular saga, punishmcnt will bc handcd down
not by thc dcity but by othcr nations. Mcancr and lcancr, thcy will
dcthronc thc last bcst hopc ol carth, to rccall Lincolns lamous
words in thc worst days ol thc Civil Var. Tc Sovict Union was
rst in this talc ol woc. !t would bc lollowcd by uropc, Japan,
!ndia, and China. Tc charactcrs changcd, thc drama bccamc part
ol thc Amcrican rcpcrtoirc. Sputnik markcd cclinc 1.0. \crsions
2.0 through 5.0 would lollow.
Tnv +os: Tnv Russi~xs Avv Co:ixc:
Tc rst in a long linc ol usurpcrs was thc Sovict Union. A lcw
months altcr thc Sputnik Shock, Life magazinc, thcn sclling lor a
mcrc twcntyvc ccnts, launchcd an urgcnt scrics titlcd not Mene,
Mene, but Crisis in ducation. Tc cditorial intoncd, Vhat has
long bccn an ignorcd national problcm, Sputnik has madc a rccog
nizcd crisis. To drivc thc calamity homc, thc author Sloan Vil
son put onstagc two gcncric Amcrican high school graduatcs. nc
was Johnny, who cant rcad abovc lthgradc lcvcl. Tc othcr
was Mary, who has barcly mastcrcd thc lourthgradc arithmctic
lundamcntals. n thc cusp ol adulthood, this duo couldnt cvcn
handlc thc thrcc Rs. How, thcn, could thc country lacc down thc
Sovict Union: vcn giltcd Amcrican childrcn arc nowhcrc ncar as
advanccd in thc scicnccs as thcir oppositc numbcrs . . . in Russia.
!n a nincpagc sprcad, thc magazinc laid out thc lrightcning
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 3 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
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scalc ol thc problcms thc U.S. now laccs by contrasting thc livcs
ol two rcallilc studcnts Stcphcn in Chicago and Alcxci in Mos
cow. istractcd by sports and dating, Stcphcn has littlc timc lor
hard study, but lor Alcxci good marks in school arc litcrally morc
important than anything clsc in lilc. Tc achicvcmcnt gap was
staggcring. Tough onc ycar youngcr, Alcxci is two ycars ahcad ol
Stcphcn acadcmically. Vhilc Stcphcn lrittcrs away his young lilc
with trivial pursuits, morc than hall ol Alcxcis classroom timc is
givcn ovcr to scicntic subjccts.
4
!t is hard physics ovcr solt plca
surc, with thc moral all too clcar: Tc Russians arc bound to prcvail.
Hall a ccntury latcr, a bcst scllcr by thc Yalc prolcssor Amy
Chua madc thc samc point, but this timc Chincsc cducation was thc
modcl hcld up to Amcrica. Tc mcssagc ol Battle Hymn of the Tiger
Mother (2011) was acadcmic pcrlormancc ber alles, no play datcs, no
slccpovcrs, no T\. Vhat Life did in 1958, thc Wall Street Journal rcp
licatcd lty ycars latcr, running a short vcrsion ol thc book undcr thc
tcllitall titlc Vhy Chincsc Mothcrs Arc Supcrior. !t was young
Alcxci all ovcr again. Comparcd with thcir Vcstcrn countcrparts,
Chincsc parcnts spcnd approximatcly 10 timcs as long cvcry day
drilling acadcmic activitics with thcir childrcn. 8y contrast, Vcstcrn
kids arc morc likcly to participatc in sports tcams.
5
Tis is our gcncrations Sputnik momcnt, intoncd Prcsidcnt
bama in his 2011 Statc ol thc Union addrcss. xccpt this timc
it was not Sovict Russia but China and !ndia. thcrwisc, it was
dja vu all ovcr again, to rccall Yogi 8crras malapropism. Likc thc
Sovicts, pcoplc in thcsc two countrics wcrc cducating thcir chil
drcn carlicr and longcr, with grcatcr cmphasis on math and scicncc.
Tcyrc invcsting in rcscarch and ncw tcchnologics. Tc Unitcd
Statcs would thus havc to rcach a lcvcl ol rcscarch and dcvclop
mcnt wc havcnt sccn sincc thc hcight ol thc Spacc Racc.
6

MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 4 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
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8ack thcn, Time had pilcd on thc mctaphors in a covcr story on
thc Sovict lcadcr Nikita Khrushchcv as its Man ol thc Ycar: !n
1957, undcr thc orbits ol a horncd sphcrc . . . , thc worlds balancc
ol powcr lurchcd and swung toward thc lrcc worlds cncmics. n
any scorc, 1957 was a ycar ol rctrcat and disarray lor thc Vcst.
7

So thc Sovict Union, barcly industrializcd and blcd dry by twcnty
million livcs lost in Vorld Var !!, was poiscd to outgun and out
producc thc Unitcd Statcs bclorc Stcphcn and Alcxci would rcach
middlc agc. 8ut that was just lor startcrs. !n lact, thc crisis was
much gravcr than Johnnys and Marys shabby pcrlormancc sug
gcstcd. Amcricas vcry survival hung in thc balancc.
!n thc Ycar ol thc Sputnik, a prcsidcntial pancl produccd a top
sccrct rcport, ctcrrcncc and Survival in thc Nuclcar Agc,
8
which
wcnt down in history as thc Gaithcr Rcport. Tough locusing on thc
Sovict Union, thc languagc ol doom could casily bc applicd to China
today, thc most rcccnt challcngcr toutcd as morc dynamic and dis
ciplincd than thc Unitcd Statcs. Tc cconomy ol thc USSR, warncd
thc pancl, is just a bit morc than oncthird ol that ol thc Unitcd
Statcs, but it is incrcasing hall again as last. So how long would
it takc lor thc Sovict Union to dcmotc thc Unitcd Statcs: Carccn
ing along on its straightlinc projcction, thc rcport prcdictcd that
by 1980 Moscows annual military spcnding may bc doublc ours,
unlcss, ol coursc, thc Unitcd Statcs nally wokc up to thc dcadly
thrcat. Todays doomstcrs similarly point to thc doublcdigit annual
cxpansion ol Chincsc dclcnsc spcnding, and thc morc stridcnt Cas
sandras targct 2025 as thc ycar whcn China will lcavc thc Unitcd
Statcs in thc dust cconomically. thcrs givc thc Unitcd Statcs until
2050 to drop to sccond or cvcn third placc in thc GP racc.
Vorsc, thc Gaithcr Rcport claimcd, thc Sovicts had probably
surpasscd us in !C8M dcvclopmcnt missilcs ol intcrcontincn
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 5 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
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tal rcach. Probablc is anothcr word lor dont know, but in thc
annus horribilis ol 1957 thc rcport lound a gratclul rcadcr in thc
lrcshman scnator lrom Massachusctts, John F. Kcnncdy. Up lor
rcclcction in 1958 and cying a prcsidcntial run two ycars latcr, hc
bcgan to stokc thc national angst. For him, thc day ol Amcricas
disgracc was practically at hand. 8y 1960, thc Unitcd Statcs will
havc lost . . . its supcriority in nuclcar striking powcr. Tc slothlul
policics ol Prcsidcnt iscnhowcr and his Rcpublicans would pro
ducc grcat dangcr within thc ncxt lcw ycars, ran his mantra.
9
Tis was thc lablcd Missilc Gap that ncvcr cxistcd, it would
takc ycars bclorc Sovict missilcs bascd at homc could ccctivcly
hit thc contincntal Unitcd Statcs. stimatcs vary widcly, crcdit
ing thc USSR with anything bctwccn lour and thirty liquidluclcd
missilcs at thc turn ol thc dccadc. Tanking thcm up would takc
tcn hours, longcr than it would takc U.S. lorwardbascd bomb
crs to rcach and dcstroy thcm. Mcanwhilc, thc Unitcd Statcs had
amasscd ovcr thrcc thousand stratcgic warhcads and almost two
thousand launchcrs by 1960. !n thc samc ycar, thc rst missilc sub
marinc, thc USS George Washington, took to thc dccp, whcrc its
sixtccn nuclcartippcd Polaris wcrc immunc to a Sovict rst strikc.
Vhcthcr by numbcr or tcchnology, thc Unitcd Statcs was lar ahcad
ol thc USSR.
Facts, unlortunatcly, dont dclivcr prophctic punch. So Kcn
ncdy paintcd Armagcddon in thc most grucsomc colors. Tc Rus
sians wcrc lorging ahcad, and thc Missilc Gap would dclivcr to
thcm a ncw shortcut to world domination.
10
!n thc prcsidcntial
campaign, Kcnncdy oratcd likc a lully blown cclinist: Tat is
what wc havc to ovcrcomc . . . |thc scnsc| that thc Unitcd Statcs
has rcachcd maturity, that maybc our high noon has passcd, maybc
our brightcst days wcrc carlicr, and that now wc arc going into thc
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 6 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
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long, slow altcrnoon.
11
Finis Americae was practically at hand in
1960. Hcnry Kissingcr, thcn a young prolcssor at Harvard, con
currcd: nly sclldclusion can kccp us lrom admitting our dcclinc
to oursclvcs.
12
Hc would rcturn to this thcmc again and again.
Tis was in thc midst ol anothcr cconomic downturn, with a
worstquartcr drop ol 5 pcrccnt in thc lall. 8ut thc Unitcd Statcs
did not ridc o into thc sunsct, and thc Sovicts ncvcr managcd
to takc that shortcut to world domination. A mcrc thirty ycars
latcr, thc USSR was no morc, having mct a latc worsc than what
history had supposcdly rcscrvcd lor thc Unitcd Statcs. !t did not
just dcclinc, it litcrally disappcarcd on Christmas ay 1991, lcav
ing bchind thc Russian Fcdcration and lourtccn orphan rcpublics.
Yct Kcnncdys agitation madc thc ctitious missilc gap rcal cnough
to scrvc its domcstic purposc. Hc kcpt his Scnatc scat in 1958 and
bcat Richard Nixon to thc Vhitc Housc two ycars latcr.
Tcn ycars latcr, at thc cnd ol thc KcnncdyJohnson cra, thc
drama ol dcclinc was rccnactcd oncc again, this timc by Kcnncdys
Rcpublican disciplc Richard M. Nixon, whcn hc was mounting his
sccond run lor thc Vhitc Housc. xccpt that this timc thc story
was not about a ctitious missilc gap but about a rcal war in \ict
nam, a campaign that originatcd in hubris and cndcd in tragcdy.
Somcbody had to lcad Amcrica out ol dcsolation, just as Kcnncdy
had promiscd a dccadc carlicr. Tis timc, thc story camc with a
ncw twist.
Tnv +6os: Tnv Uxv~vviixc ov A:vvic~
As always, pridc gocth bclorc thc lall. Pummclcd by Sputnik and
opprcsscd by thc nightmarc ol Sovict supcriority, Amcricas spir
its would soon soar again. nly a handlul ol ycars altcr Sputnik,
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 7 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
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Amcrica was No. 1 again, having rcduccd its mortal rival to a dis
tant sccond in thc stylizcd passagc ol arms that was thc Cuban
Missilc Crisis in thc lall ol 1962.
All narrativcs ol national dcclinc turn on thc naturc ol powcr:
who is losing, who is gaining it: !n thc traditional grcatpowcr
world ol thc cightccnth and ninctccnth ccnturics, war was thc
trucst mcasurc, dclivcring swilt and conclusivc vcrdicts. !t took
upstart Prussia just tcn months to dcmotc mighty Francc to a has
bccn in thc Var ol 187071. !n 1967, !sracl routcd all thrcc ol its
ncighbors gypt, Syria, and Jordan in lcss than a wcck, cstab
lishing itscll as a rcgional supcrpowcr. !n thc nuclcar agc, how
cvcr, war can no longcr scrvc as a tcst ol strcngth. vcrkill has
climinatcd grcatpowcr war lrom thc rcpcrtoirc, and so criscs havc
bccomc thc yardstick ol powcr. Tc most dangcrous and dccisivc
onc was thc Cuban Missilc Crisis, whcn Kcnncdy had bccn in
occ lor lcss than two ycars.
Tc outcomc provcd how cmpty Kcnncdys doomsday rhctoric
had bccn, and how lrcnzicd thc alarm ovcr Moscows unstoppa
blc risc. Amcrica was back on top and triumphant, to boot. 8y
taking on thc Unitcd Statcs on its homc turl, thc Sovicts actu
ally provcd that thc Missilc Gap was in lact their problcm. Vhy
clsc movc up so closc to thc Amcrican mainland, cnginccring a
thrcat that riskcd dcvastating prccmption against thc Sovict homc
land: Tc naval conlrontation in thc Caribbcan watcrs did not last
long thirtccn days, to bc cxact. Kcnncdy prcvailcd, and Nikita
Khrushchcv, Russias rulcr, had to plcdgc withdrawal. Hc would
latcr pay with his political lilc lor his advcnturism, as his Polit
buro collcagucs callcd thc Cuban gambit. Amcricas stratcgic and
convcntional supcriority had carricd thc day, in a ash that rcvcalcd
thc truc distribution ol powcr, and without a shot bcing rcd.
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 8 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
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Frcshly vindicatcd, Amcrica was again salc and sound. Tc
tcmptation wasnt long in coming. Hubris lollowcd triumph as
night lollows day, notably in \ictnam, whcrc Kcnncdy, ush with
victory, scnt somc sixtccn thousand Amcrican scrviccmcn as advis
crs. 8y middccadc, his succcssor Lyndon 8. Johnson had dis
patchcd hall a million combat troops. At thc cnd ol thc 1960s,
thc war was not going wcll, though much worsc at homc than in
thc Asian thcatcr. Many ycars latcr, Harvcy Manscld, a politi
cal philosophcr at Harvard, would dcscribc thc \ictnam ycars as
comprchcnsivc disastcr.
13
Tis timc, thc calamity was lor rcal, not
a dclibcratc dramatization, as in thc Sputnik ycars.
!t was war in \ictnam and war at homc, a crumbling dollar
and rising ination, burning citics and gcncrational rcvolt. !t was
thc longcst and darkcst chaptcr in thc history ol Amcrican scll
doubt. Lyndon 8. Johnson thought hc could do it all thc Var
on Povcrty and thc war against Ho Chi Minh, but without rais
ing taxcs, lct alonc rcining in civilian spcnding, which actually
climbcd to ncw hcights. Hc told his biographcr, ! was dctcr
mincd to bc a lcadcr ol war and a lcadcr ol pcacc. ! wantcd both,
! bclicvcd in both, and ! bclicvcd Amcrica had thc rcsourccs
to providc lor both.
14
Although thc mighticst nation on carth,
Amcrica did not.
Jcrry Rubin, thc countcrculturc hcro and lcading Yippic, who
in a vcry Amcrican carccr would morph into a wcalthy cntrcprc
ncur in thc 1980s, wrotc on thc countrys wall (notc thc Gcrman
spclling to cvokc thc Nazi parallcl),
Tc war against Amcrika
!n thc schools
And thc strccts
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 9 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
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8y whitc middlcclass kids
Tus commcnccd.
15
!n 1966, thc dcmonstrators marchcd by thc thousands. 8y
April 1967, somc 400,000 throngcd through Ncw York, in cto
bcr, 100,000 masscd at thc Lincoln Mcmorial in Vashington.
nc ycar latcr, Martin Luthcr King Jr. was murdcrcd, and so was
John F. Kcnncdys brothcr Robcrt. !t was thc unravcling ol Amcr
ica, as thc titlc ol a book on thc pcriod had it, or morc ominously,
Amcricas suicidc attcmpt.
16
\ictnam was to Sputnik what viral
pncumonia is to a hiccup. Running lor thc cmocratic nomination
in 1968, Robcrt Kcnncdy naturally invokcd thc classic prophctic
motils ol transgrcssion and pcrdition: Guilty wcrc thosc who havc
rcmovcd thcmsclvcs lrom thc Amcrican tradition, lrom . . . thc
soul ol our nation. !t was a lailurc ol national purposc, which
stcmmcd not just lrom bad policics but lrom thc darkcr impulscs
ol thc Amcrican spirit.
17
Tus spokc anicl to King Lyndon.
Robcrt Kcnncdy was not alonc in uttcring such scntimcnts.
Richard Nixon, thc Rcpublican, was also running lor thc prcsi
dcncy. Likc JFK cxactly a dccadc carlicr, hc soundcd thc alarm
ovcr Amcricas lall lrom gracc. Lct us look at thc balancc ol powcr
in thc world, hc oratcd in 1967:
Twcnty ycars ago thc Unitcd Statcs had a monopoly on thc
atomic bomb and our military supcriority was unqucstioncd.
vcn vc ycars ago our advantagc was still dccisivc. Today
thc Sovict Union may bc ahcad ol us in mcgaton capacity
and will havc missilc parity with thc Unitcd Statcs by 1970.
Communist China within vc ycars will havc a signicant
dclivcrablc nuclcar capability.
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 10 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
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Finally, lct us look at Amcrican prcstigc:
Twcnty ycars ago . . . wc wcrc rcspcctcd throughout thc
world. Today, hardly a day gocs by whcn our ag is not spit
upon, a library burncd, an cmbassy stoncd somc placc in thc
world. !n lact, you dont havc to lcavc thc Unitcd Statcs to
nd cxamplcs.
18
Tis was cclinism Litc not thc cnd, but thc shrinking ol
Amcrica in tcrms ol global powcr and prcstigc. Tc thcmc would
rcsurlacc through thc dccadcs. Amcrica was sinking slowly, whilc
othcrs wcrc rising, its inucncc was on thc wanc. Tis would
bccomc thc lcitmotil ol thc Nixon administration, and it lorcshad
owcd thc risc ol thc rcst that suuscs thc prcscntday cclcbration
ol China, !ndia, ct al. !ts lullcst cxprcssion was a rambling spccch
by thc prcsidcnt in Kansas City in 1971.
Amcrica is no longcr thc cconomic numbcr onc, Nixon
dccrccd. Tcrc arc in lact vc grcat powcr ccntcrs in thc world
today. Tcsc arc thc Unitcd Statcs, lollowcd by Vcstcrn uropc, a
rcsurgcnt Japan, thc Sovict Union, and Mainland China, which
incvitably is growing into an cnormous cconomic powcr and
cvcntually a global stratcgic playcr. So, in sum, what do wc scc . . .
as wc look ahcad 5 ycars, 10 ycars, pcrhaps it is 15: Vc scc vc
grcat cconomic supcr powcrs.
Tc diagnosis didnt quitc pan out. Filtccn ycars latcr, in 1986,
Japan was about to pcak. At thc cnd ol thc dccadc, it was slid
ing into longtcrm stagnation whosc cnd wc havc yct to scc. Tc
Sovict Union was sinking cvcn morc rapidly, its cmpirc collapsing
shortly thcrcaltcr. 8ut at thc cnd ol his spccch, Nixon soundcd
likc swald Spcnglcr and Arnold Toynbcc, thc twcnticth ccn
turys most lamous cclinists, rollcd into onc.
19
! think ol what
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 11 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
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happcncd to Grcccc and to Romc . . . , grcat civilizations ol thc
past, which rst bccamc wcalthy, thcn lost thcir will to livc, to
improvc. So thcy succumbcd to thc dccadcncc which cvcntually
dcstroys a civilization. And thc Unitcd Statcs is now rcaching
that pcriod.
Tis was thc buildup. Likc any good prophct, Nixon concludcd
by switching lrom doom to dclivcrancc. Amcricas lall lrom gracc
was not yct, hc told his audicncc, thc country was still prccmincnt
as world lcadcr. !t had thc vitality, thc couragc, thc dcstiny
to play a grcat rolc, but thc pcoplc nccd to bc rcassurcd.
20
Likc
all prophcts, thc prcsidcnt was thc man to do so, trust mc, so to
spcak. Hcnry Kissingcr, who had bccn tutoring Nixon in lorcign
policy, did not sound quitc as sanguinc.
For Nixons national sccurity adviscr, thc cnd ol thc twosupcr
powcr world was alrcady hcrc, and Amcrica had to adjust to thc
ncw rcality. Political multipolarity was at hand, hc wrotc in 1968,
which makcs it impossiblc to imposc an Amcrican dcsign.
21
Tc
nation, in othcr words, had to scalc back. !n ycstcrdays twopowcr
world, thc Unitcd Statcs had hcld at lcast onchall ol thc voting
stock, in this ncw vcpowcr world, that sharc was bound to dwin
dlc to onclth.
Tis prospcct apparcntly gavc risc to mclancholy rccctions.
According to thc rctircd navy chicl lmo Zumwalt, Kissingcr
had condcd to him in 1970 that thc Unitcd Statcs had passcd
its historical high point likc so many carlicr civilizations. Tus,
it was Kissingcrs job to pcrsuadc thc Russians to givc us thc bcst
dcal wc can gct, rccognizing that thc historical lorccs lavor thcm.
Amcricans lack thc stamina to stay thc coursc against thc Rus
sians, Zumwalt quotcd Kissingcr as saying, thcy arc Sparta to
our Athcns. Kissingcr would latcr dcnouncc thc rcport as total
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 12 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
13
labrication, adding that Zumwalt had misundcrstood thc points
! was making.
22
Givcn his political agcnda, thc admiral surcly did misrcp
rcscnt thc convcrsation. A cmocrat running lor thc Scnatc in
\irginia in 1976, Zumwalt may havc uscd Kissingcr as a whip
ping boy in ordcr to discrcdit Nixons lorcign policy. n thc
othcr hand, Nixons and Kissingcrs pcrorations wcrcnt pullcd
lrom thin air. Tc Unitcd Statcs was hcmorrhaging blood, trca
surc, and rcputation. Tc \ictnam Var could not bc sustaincd at
homc, a woundcd nation, thc Unitcd Statcs had to movc out ol
harms way. cclinism hcartlclt or instrumcntal was thc way
to prcparc thc nation lor thc coming Uturn in grand stratcgy.
Tis could havc bccn thc largcr purposc ol thc wc arc down, and
thcy arc up oratory.
Tc ncw stratcgy was dtcntc with thc Sovict Union and thc
opcning toward China, thc two powcrs that wcrc arming and
abctting North \ictnam. Rapprochcmcnt with thc two Rcd giants
would givc thc Unitcd Statcs lcvcragc ovcr Hanoi. 8ut how to
pcrsuadc a nation that had bccn wcancd sincc thc latc 1940s on a
stcady dict ol godlcss communism: To lcgitimatc thc ncw diplo
macy, a ncw domcstic conscnsus had to bc lorgcd. And thc issuc
was whcthcr thc ncw balancc which thc Administration sought
abroad would balancc at homc.
23
So thc quintcsscntial Cold Varrior, Richard Nixon, had to
changc stripcs. Hc had to pcrsuadc thc nation to scalc back, cspc
cially sincc Congrcss would no longcr support this or any othcr
impcrial vcnturc. Tc Unitcd Statcs could not play thc worlds
policcman, it had to bring highying cnds in linc with dwindling
mcans. Hcncc it was high timc to avoid dircct involvcmcnt in lavor
ol rcgional powcr balanccs. Lct thc locals carry thc burdcn. Tis
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 13 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
14
was thc gist ol thc ncw Nixon octrinc.
24
!n ordcr to justily down
sizing and dcaling with ycstcrdays mortal locs, it might hclp to
paint thc nation smallcr than it was. cclinism, as always, was an
cducational cxcrcisc.
id Nixon and Kissingcr intcnd to vacatc Amcricas cxaltcd
placc at thc top: Tc China opcning and dtcntc with Moscow
actually addcd up to a classic ol rcalpolitik, in which dclt diplomacy
compcnsatcd lor an apparcnt or gcnuinc loss ol powcr in thcsc try
ing days. Vith Amcrica in thc middlc, Vashington would play thc
Sovicts against thc Chincsc, and both against North \ictnam. !n
cithcr casc, thc Unitcd Statcs would act as thc conccrtmastcr.
Alas, ncithcr China nor Sovict Russia would play sccond ddlc
to thc Unitcd Statcs in ast Asia. Tcy kcpt on arming and shicld
ing North \ictnam, and Ho Chi Minh wcnt on to conqucr thc
South altcr thc Unitcd Statcs had cndcd its dircct military involvc
mcnt in 1972. Fivc ycars latcr, just bclorc lcaving occ, Hcnry
Kissingcr harkcd back to his 1968 articlc about adapting to polit
ical multipolarity, cnding on a mclancholy notc: !n thc naturc
ol things, this task could not havc bccn complctcd cvcn without
Vatcrgatc.
25
8ut il by this task Kissingcr mcant translorming
thc world into a pcntagon ol powcr, with thc Unitcd Statcs volun
tarily sinking to primus inter pares, thc projcct was ncithcr ncccs
sary nor part ol thc plan.
Tc Unitcd Statcs, though it did not prcvail in \ictnam, was
hardly lacing dcclinc in thc latc 1960s. !t did sucr lrom thc rcvolt
ol thc young, lrom a crisis ol thc spirit, and thc plight ol an ccon
omy chargcd with producing too many guns and too much buttcr
(aka social spcnding) all at oncc. 8ut by any mcasurc ol powcr
cconomic mass, military clout, and diplomatic wcight thc Unitcd
Statcs rcmaincd prccmincnt. Tosc lablcd dominocs didnt lall
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 14 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
15
across thc lcngth and brcadth ol Asia, North \ictnams conqucst
ol thc South was socialism in just onc morc hall country.
26
Los
ing a war without having to sucr stratcgic dcmotion this is thc
mark ol a truly grcat powcr. Lcsscr powcrs havc not bccn so lucky.
Altcr its mauling by PrussiaGcrmany in 1871, Francc could no
longcr claim stratcgic primacy on thc Contincnt. Altcr 1945, it was
Gcrmanys turn to lall lrom powcr. Altcr thc Sovict Union lost thc
Cold Var, it disintcgratcd. clcat spcllcd disastcr lor all ol thcm.
Tnv +os: A:vvic~s M~i~isv
At thc cnd ol thc 1970s, rcal calamity struck oncc again. Altcr
thc sccond oil shock, in 1979, gasolinc priccs in thc Unitcd Statcs
almost doublcd in twclvc months, a risc that took tcn ycars to
work itscll out in thc rst dccadc ol thc twcntyrst ccntury. 8y
thc summcr ol 1979, Amcricans again laccd long gas lincs at thc
pump, as thcy had during thc rst oil shock, in 1973, whcn pricc
controls, as thcy always do, lcd to inluriating shortagcs. !nation
kcpt accclcrating: lrom 6 pcrccnt in 1977, whcn Jimmy Cartcr took
occ, to 11 pcrccnt in 1979. !t pcakcd at almost 14 pcrccnt in thc
clcction ycar ol 1980. Two ycars latcr, U.S. uncmploymcnt shot up
to almost 11 pcrccnt thc highcst lcvcl sincc thc Grcat cprcs
sion, and morc than onc pcrccntagc point highcr than at thc worst
momcnt ol thc 200709 rcccssion. At thc cnd ol thc 1980s, a dol
lar was worth lcss than hall ol what it was worth at thc bcginning.
Abroad, thc dollar had droppcd likcwisc against major uropcan
currcncics, likc thc dcutschc mark. !n contrast to thosc ol thc Car
tcr ycars, thc cconomic wocs ol thc bama ycars lookcd morc likc
a nasty migrainc painlul and protractcd, but not dcadly.
Tc contrast sharpcns whcn thc political humiliations ol thc
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 15 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
16
timc arc addcd to cconomic catastrophc. Nicaragua lcll to thc San
dinistas in 1979, bccoming Cubas rst Latin Amcrican satcllitc.
Tc Shah, Amcricas longtimc pillar in thc Middlc ast, cscapcd
lor his lilc lrom thc Khomcini Rcvolution in January 1979. And
this timc, thc C!A and 8ritains M!6 could no longcr cnginccr a
coup to bring him back, as thcy had donc in 1953. !ranian studcnts
occupicd thc U.S. cmbassy in Tchran, tcrrorizing thcir Amcri
can hostagcs lor 444 days. A hallhcartcd attcmpt by thc Cartcr
administration to rcscuc thcm cndcd in thc bloody disastcr ol cs
crt nc, lorcing thc abortion ol thc mission. Sovict and Cuban
lorccs wcrc marching across rcsourccrich Ccntral Alrica. Finally,
during Christmas 1979, thc Sovicts invadcd Alghanistan.
Nothing could undcrscorc Amcricas lragility morc than Jimmy
Cartcrs lamous Malaisc Spccch ol 1979, as thc mcdia would dub
it. Hc diagnoscd a crisis ol condcncc . . . that strikcs at thc vcry
hcart and soul and spirit ol our national will. Vc can scc this crisis
in thc growing doubt about thc mcaning ol our own livcs and in
thc loss ol a unity ol purposc lor our Nation. Tat crosion ol our
condcncc thrcatcns to dcstroy thc social and thc political lab
ric ol Amcrica. !t all addcd up to an assault on our hcart, soul,
spirit, and will.
27
No othcr Amcrican prcsidcnt has cvcr paintcd
thc countrys lall lrom gracc in such grucsomc colors.
At thc cnd ol thc ycar, cclinism was rampant throughout
thc land. Newsweek ran a covcr story titlcd Has thc U.S. Lost !ts
Clout: Tc magazinc had uncarthcd prool positivc ol thc crosion
ol Amcrican prcstigc and powcr. Tcrc was thc Sovict bogcy again.
ncc Amcrica had hcld a nuclcar monopoly, now it was struggling
to maintain somcthing callcd parity. Tc country was slipping.
To provc thc point, Newsweek trundlcd out a Japancsc prolcssor
who had always bccn cagcr to travcl to thc Unitcd Statcs, but
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 16 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
17
now hc didnt cvcn want to go again this ycar. Tc spokcsman
ol thc Gcrman govcrnmcnt wouldnt cxactly gloat, rathcr wc lccl
pity lor thc Unitcd Statcs schadcnlrcudc masking as solicitous
conccrn. A Frcnch analyst did not scc thc Amcrican way ol lilc
as so absolutcly supcrior any morc.
28
Adjust thc namcs and thc
datcs, and you havc a oncsizctsalldccadcs diagnosis ol incs
capablc dcclinc.
!n an acrid rcvicw ol thc NixonCartcr cra, Robcrt V. Tuckcr
ol Johns Hopkins wrotc, Tough disputcd until rcccntly, Amcr
icas dcclinc was no longcr a mattcr ol scrious contcntion. Fol
lowing thc ancicnt prophctic tradition, which sccs pcrdition as
thc wagcs ol sin, thc notcd scholar brandishcd thc unpalatablc
truth that wc havc bctraycd oursclvcs.
29
Amcrica wasnt quitc
nishcd, opincd Hclmut Sonncnlcldt, prcviously Kissingcrs
counsclor in thc Statc cpartmcnt. 8ut thc Amcrican drcam . . .
nccds a good dcal ol rcvision. Vc can do lcss than wc havc tcndcd
to think. Vinston Lord, anothcr lormcr aidc, put it tout court in
his ncw rolc as thc hcad ol thc Council on Forcign Rclations,
which in thosc days scrvcd as unocial ccntral committcc ol thc
U.S. lorcign policy cstablishmcnt: ur cra ol prcdominancc is
ovcr.
30
Tc grcat riscr was again thc Sovict Union. Could Missilc Gap
!! bc lar bchind: Hcnry Kissingcr, now out ol occ, warncd that
Amcricas stratcgic supcriority has crodcd. !l thc country did not
gct back into thc racc, thcn in thc 80s wcrc going to pay a vcry
scrious pricc. Tc rst installmcnts arc alrcady visiblc.
31
Tc scqucl
ol thc rst Missilc Gap was callcd Vindow ol \ulncrability, and
thc script was writtcn not by an aspiring prcsidcntial candidatc, as
in Kcnncdys casc, but by thc Committcc on thc Prcscnt angcr.
Tis was an asscmbly ol inucntial privatc pcrsonagcs, which had
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 17 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
18
alrcady playcd Cassandra in 1950 and was rising to rcncwcd prom
incncc in thc Cartcr ycars.
32
Ronald Rcagan, thc Rcpublican can
didatc in 1980, had joincd thc cxccutivc board ol thc committcc a
ycar carlicr.
Again, cclinism camc with rcal dcclinc. Tc 198082 rcccs
sion saw thc worst singlcquartcr plungc almost 8 pcrccnt ol
GP sincc thc Grcat cprcssion. Tc Vindow ol \ulncrability
built on prcvious doomsday sccnarios that had paintcd thc Unitcd
Statcs as prcytobc ol thc Sovict bcar. Tcsc wcrc thc Gaithcr
Rcport ol 1957 and thc National Sccurity Councils NSC68 mcm
orandum ol 1950. Tc lattcr, an inhousc documcnt, had spcllcd
out to Prcsidcnt Truman: Rcarm or rctrcat! Now, thirty ycars latcr,
thc Sovict Union was again rcaching lor nuclcar supcriority, and
this timc lor kccps. r so thc cclinist agitation had it. Tc Sovi
cts wcrc arming to ght and win a nuclcar war, thc Committcc on
thc Prcscnt angcr trumpctcd. Vhilc hardcning thcir own silos,
thc Sovicts wcrc building hcavicr and morc accuratc missilcs capa
blc ol taking out Amcricas rctaliatory lorcc in a rst strikc.
Tis sccnario was hypcrbolc vcrging on irrcality, givcn that thc
Sovict Union could not takc out Amcricas undcrsca strikc lorcc or
thosc bombcrs that wcrc on constant airbornc rcadincss. For News-
week, howcvcr, this was thc most alarming lorccast in ycars.
33

Time brought onstagc dclcnsc cxpcrts who warncd that thc Sovi
cts arc ahcad or gaining in almost cvcry catcgory.
34
An cvcn morc
mcnacing prospcct is a shilt in thc world balancc ol powcr toward
thc Sovict Union, Time wrotc on Amcricas wall two ycars latcr.
35

Tc columnist Joscph Alsop, rcaching dccply into his grab bag ol
gloom, placcd Amcrica right ncxt to ancicnt Carthagc, which was
dcstroycd by Romcs warlikc manpowcr. Russia was Romc, and
wc havc rcachcd thc stagc whcn wc must cxpcct disastcr in thc
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 18 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
19
long run, unlcss wc makc painlul corts to rcdrcss thc balancc
without unduc dclay.
36
Tat alarm, which had bccn soundcd twicc in thc 1950s,
turncd out to bc lalsc oncc morc. At thc timc, thc Unitcd Statcs
had almost thrcc timcs as many stratcgic warhcads as thc Sovict
Union. 8ut as myth, thc Vindow ol \ulncrability was as ccctivc
as its prcdcccssors NSC68 and thc Gaithcr Rcport. !t triggcrcd
a wavc ol rcarmamcnt in thc lattcr days ol thc Cartcr administra
tion, and thc tidc rosc mightily undcr Rcagan.
Rcagan was thc grcatcst protccr ol thc cclinist agitation. Hc
appropriatcd thc panicky languagc as dcltly as had John F. Kcn
ncdy, thc cmocrat, twcnty ycars bclorc. Mr. Cartcr, Rcagan
rccitcd in thc prcsidcntial dcbatc ol 1980, had cancclcd thc B-I
bombcr, dclaycd thc MX |missilc|, dclaycd thc Trident submarinc,
dclaycd thc cruisc missilc, shut down . . . thc Minuteman missilc
production linc. . . . !n othcr words, his rival was guilty ol sloth
and ncglcct. !t was high timc to rcstorc our margin ol salcty and
to stop unilatcral conccssions to thc Sovicts.
37

Amcricas dclcnsc strcngth, rcmonstratcd Rcagan, is at its
lowcst cbb in a gcncration, whilc thc Sovict Union is vastly out
spcnding us in both stratcgic and convcntional arms.
38
Tc Harvard
political scicntist Samucl Huntington summcd it all up: Fcclings ol
dcclinc and malaisc, rcinlorccd by anothcr oil pricc hikc and ina
tion, gcncratcd thc political currcnts that brought Ronald Rcagan
to powcr in 1981.
39
Vith thc Amcrican hostagcs still hcld in !ran,
Cartcr lost in a landslidc. And truc to thc prophctic tradition
rst Jcrcmiah, thcn rcdccmcr Rcagans most lamous campaign
commcrcial thrcc ycars latcr intoncd, !ts morning again in Amcr
ica. And undcr thc lcadcrship ol Prcsidcnt Rcagan, our country is
proudcr and strongcr and bcttcr.
40
8ut not lor long.
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 19 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
20
Tnv +8os: J~v~xs Risixc Sux
!n prcvious dccadcs lrom Sputnik to Malaisc candidatcs
and committccs had crowdcd thc stagc whcrc thc stock drama
cclinc Timc in Amcrica was playcd out. Tc 1980s bclongcd
to thc acadcmics, analysts, and thrillcr authors. Tc starring rolc
also changcd. Altcr thrcc dccadcs ol Tc Russians Arc Coming,
thc Sovict Union was laltcring, and it would go on to losc thc Cold
Var in 1989, whcn thc \clvct Rcvolutions swcpt away Moscows
dccaycd cmpirc in astcrn uropc. So who would push asidc thc
Unitcd Statcs now: ntcr Japan in thc lcad and uropc in a sup
porting rolc.
Japan had bccn ngcrcd as a powcr to watch sincc thc carly
1970s, in a languagc almost idcntical to thc hoopla about China
thrcc dccadcs latcr:
l all thc various postwar cconomic miraclcs, thc Japancsc
is thc most spcctacular. Japan . . . has bccomc, in lcss than a
quartcr ccntury, thc lrcc worlds sccondranking industrial
powcr. Sincc 1950, Japans GNP has grown an avcragc ol 10
pcrccnt pcr ycar. From 1960 to 1969, it rosc at an . . . avcr
agc ol 11.4 pcrccnt pcr ycar . . . Tc Japancsc GNP |might
catch| up with thc Amcrican by 1985 or 1990. Tc ycar
2000 . . . will bcgin thc Japancsc ccntury.
41
Pcrccntagcs arc dcstiny, this classic ol cclinism suggcstcd,
and with growth numbcrs that dwarlcd cvcn Chinas pcrlor
mancc (around 10 pcrccnt) a gcncration latcr. Japan was soaring,
now and lorcvcr morc. So rst a rcality chcck on thc trcnds as
thcy actually unloldcd. !n 1985, whcn Japan was supposcd to ovcr
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 20 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
21
takc thc Unitcd Statcs, its GP was 81.3 trillion (in thcn dollars),
thc Unitcd Statcs was 84.2 trillion, thrcc timcs largcr. Fivc ycars
latcr this was thc ncxt prcdictcd drawcvcn point thc tally was
3 trillion vs. 6 trillion, so Japan was coming closcr. !n 2000, it was
4.6 trillion vs. 10 trillion, so Japan was cvidcntly slowing. Now
shilt lorward to thc prcscnt, and it is back to thc luturc and to
thc original thrcctoonc gap.
42
!n rcal dollars, thc gap was cvcn
largcr (scc gurc 1). Such is thc latc ol lincar, tomorrowwillbc
likc ycstcrday projcctions.
1. Real GDP, 19692011 (2005 U.S. dollars)
souvcv: U.S. cpartmcnt ol Agriculturc, conomic Rcscarch Scrvicc, http://www
.crs.usda.gov/ata/macrocconomics/ata/HistoricalRcalGP\alucs.xls.
Yct lincarity thc idca ol Japans unbrokcn risc would lccd
cclinism lor thc ncxt twcnty ycars. Among thc rst to turn thc
Japan ubcr allcs thcmc song into a long dirgc lor Amcrica was
16,000
YEAR
B
I
L
L
I
O
N
S

O
F

U
S
D
14,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1
9
6
9
1
9
7
2
1
9
7
5
1
9
7
8
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
7
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
1
12,000
Russia
Former Soviet Union
Japan
United States
EU-15
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 21 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
22
thc Harvard sociologist zra \ogcl with his Japan as Number One:
Lessons for America. Tis was in 1979, at thc hcight ol Jimmy Car
tcrs malaisc, and it sct thc tonc lor uncnding hcro worship. For
its admircrs, Japan was Hcrculcs and instcin rollcd into onc. Tis
giants strcngths and brains wcrc supcrhuman, as Chinas arc said
to bc today.
Tc choicc narrativc unloldcd likc this: Japans burcaucracy
planncd with mcticulous lorcsight. Tcsc wisc samurai kncw
cvcrything, and what thcy did not know, thcy studicd obscssivcly
to uncarth. Govcrnmcnt and busincss workcd hand in glovc lor thc
grcatcr glory ol thc nation. Japancsc rms could draw on limitlcss
capital, and bccausc thc lunds wcrc providcd by bank loans, not
by cquity, corporations did not havc to plcasc shortsightcd stock
holdcrs. Tc cducational systcm was cclcbratcd as thc Sovict onc
had bccn in thc Sputnik days, and as Chinas is today: no non
scnsc, hard work, ruthlcss compctition to promotc thc bcst and thc
brightcst. vcn bcttcr, Japan sharcd nonc ol Amcricas pathologics.
!ts crimc ratc was minusculc, its citics wcrc clcan and salc. \ogcls
Japan as Number One, notcd an admiring rcvicwcr, was a monu
mcnt to Japans stcamrollcr cmincncc.
43
Anothcr typical pacan was sung by Time: Japans powcr clitc
practiccs a dcmocratic idcal that Amcricans ignorc: thc spirit
ol compromisc and conscnsus. 8usincss and govcrnmcnt arc
not advcrsarics, thcy work togcthcr. Statcowncd banks makc
lowintcrcst loans to manulacturcrs, and privatc banks know
that thc govcrnmcnt cxpccts thcm, too, to givc casy crcdits. Tc
govcrnmcnt docs not yicld to thc plcas ol spccial intcrcst groups.
8urcaucrats and cxccutivcs jointly managc policy. Tc two sidcs
undcrstand onc anothcr . . . bccausc thcsc lcadcrs usually havc thc
samc roots ol culturc and class.
44
Hcncc a culturc as mcssy and
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 22 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
23
scllabsorbcd as thc Amcrican onc could ncvcr livc up to such pcr
lcction. Todays China admircrs usc similar languagc whcn prais
ing thc advantagcs ol authoritarian modcrnization.
Amcrican admiration lor this No. 1 soon dcgcncratcd into
shccr paranoia that would opprcss thc Amcrican imagination lor
ycars on cnd. !n 1992, Michacl Crichton publishcd thc bcst scllcr
Rising Sun, which was madc into a movic with Scan Conncry and
Vcslcy Snipcs onc ycar latcr, grossing 815 million (824 million
today) on thc rst wcckcnd. !t was a pcrlcct tcstimony to Amcricas
drcad ol Japan, thc China ol thc 1980s.
uring Vorld Var !!, thc Japancsc had ncvcr madc it bcyond
Pcarl Harbor, ovcr thc ncxt thrcc ycars, its Asian cmpirc was
shattcrcd by Amcricas military machinc. 8ut in thc 1980s Japan
lookcd truly indomitablc. !t was amassing not just a rcgional but
also a global cmpirc pcacclully and with bcachhcads right in thc
hcart ol thc Amcrican cconomy. !n 1989, Mitsubishi bought onc
national trcasurc, Ncw Yorks Rockclcllcr Ccntcr, onc ycar latcr, a
Japancsc busincssman grabbcd anothcr, Pcbblc 8cach in Calilor
nia. Fcar and loathing cxplodcd in a lamous sccnc in Congrcss in
1987, whcrc a Japancsc \CR was smashcd in lront ol thc camcras
to makc thc point.
Rising Sun, thc movic, would gross 860 million (8100 million
currcnt). n thc surlacc, thc book and thc movic wcrc spinning a
gripping whodunit. 8ut thc rcal mcssagc was a rcmakc ol anicls
dcadly prophccy. Likc 8abylons, Amcricas days wcrc numbcrcd.
Tc plot: A young woman is rapcd and murdcrcd during thc grand
opcning ol a Japancsc company hcadquartcrs in Los Angclcs. !n
short ordcr, though, thc chicl ol policc ordcrs thc two dctcctivcs
to drop thc invcstigation. So thc Japancsc, thc plot whispcrs, had
alrcady corruptcd a mighty Amcrican city. Undctcrrcd, thc intrcpid
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 23 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
24
duo gocs on to uncovcr a widcr conspiracy: Tc Japancsc want con
trol ovcr thc U.S. clcctronics industry, but only lor startcrs, thc
ultimatc stakc is political powcr. So thc invadcrs try to pin thc
murdcr on an antiJapancsc scnator who is mulling a prcsidcntial
run. !n thc cnd, thc rightcous slcuths conlront thc rcal culprit, a
Japancsc cxccutivc, with thc damning cvidcncc. Hc mccts his just
dcscrts by jumping to his dcath, and Amcrica is savcd.
Tc ocamcra rcalitics should havc bccn morc hcartcning still.
At thc pcak ol thc paranoia, thc Japancsc cconomy was in lrcc lall
as wcll, plunging into thc Lost ccadc ol thc 1990s into con
traction and dcation. Yct nobody noticcd how Japans cconomic
miraclc was cvaporating. !n an altcrword to Rising Sun, thc author
Michacl Crichton insistcd that thc Unitcd Statcs still had to comc
to grips with thc lact that Japan has bccomc thc lcading industrial
nation. !t had invcntcd a ncw kind ol tradc advcrsarial tradc,
tradc likc war. !n Debt of Honor ol 1994, thc thrillcr author Tom
Clancy wcnt to thc summit ol all lcars, laying out a U.S.Japancsc
tradc war cscalating into thc rcal thing with a nuclcararmcd
Japan. Tis movic was a blockbustcr as wcll.
Lovcrs ol irony might havc a cld day by comparing thc c
tion with thc gurcs. Vhilc Crichton and Clancy wcrc proting
handsomcly lrom thcir nightmarc talcs, Japan was sinking last.
Tc country had boastcd doublcdigit growth ratcs in thc 1950s
and 1960s, which at scvcral points had cxcccdcd thc 10 pcrccnt ol
Chinas a gcncration latcr. oublcdigit cxpansion cndcd in 1970.
At thc closc ol thc 1970s, growth was down to lcss than 3 pcrccnt.
!n thc 1980s, thc Japancsc cconomy oscillatcd bctwccn a low ol 2
pcrccnt and a high ol 7 pcrccnt. Growth pcakcd in 1988, thc ycar
that markcd thc bcginning ol a rclcntlcss slidc. Yct in thc samc
ycar, Clydc Prcstowitz, lormcrly assistant sccrctary ol commcrcc
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 24 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
25
in thc Rcagan administration, prcdictcd, Tc Amcrican ccntury
is ovcr. Tc big dcvclopmcnt in thc lattcr part ol thc ccntury is thc
cmcrgcncc ol Japan as a major supcrpowcr.
45
Tc Unitcd Statcs
was a Japancsc colony in thc making.
46
!n lact, it was downhill lor thc colonizcr. !n 1992, thc ycar ol
thc Rising Sun, growth noscdivcd bclow 1 pcrccnt, and in 1994,
whcn Debt of Honor camc out, thc ratc was lowcr still. Tc Lost
ccadc, with two dips bclow zcro, was in lull swing. vcr sincc,
Japan has bccn growing at about hall thc Amcrican ratc.
47
As
Japans cconomy worscncd, so did its prcss, this is how thc nim
blclootcd mcdia work. Shiny pillars ol cxccllcncc suddcnly
crumblcd into pilcs ol rot. Tc politicians: Poodlcs ol cntrcnchcd
intcrcsts, incompctcnt and scllscrving. Tc administration:
Japans burcaucratically guidcd capitalism . . . dcmonstratcs an
incrcasing propcnsity to corruption. Tc banking systcm that oncc
gushcd lorth limitlcss capital: !t is mircd in bad dcbt and cov
crup.
48
Tc school systcm: An inhuman prcssurc cookcr that is
good lor rotc lcarning, but unks on lrcsh thinking.
Tough shalt not mistake a rapid rise from a low base for an ever-
lasting boom was thc lcsson ol thc 1980s, which also applicd to ast
Asias othcr shooting stars. Japans cconomic miraclc rcscmblcd
South Korcas, Taiwans, and todays Chinas (lor thc parallcls, scc
chaptcrs 4 and 5). Trow in thc catchup cconomy ol Gcrmany,
as wcll, laid low just as Japans was in Vorld Var !! dicrcnt
culturcs, similar paths ol rcdcvclopmcnt. Tc stccp risc ol Japan ct
al. was lcd lrom thc outsidc by cxports and at homc by undcrcon
sumption and its ip sidc, high saving.
Tc surpluscs in thc tradc and savings accounts madc moncy
cxtraordinarily chcap. Funds bccamc cvcn morc plcntilul as a ris
ing ycn swcpt in lorcign monics in scarch ol casy prots lrom lur
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 25 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
26
thcr rcvaluation. Tis will happcn in China, too, il thc country
unlcttcrs its currcncy and kccps it lrccoating. Tc prcdictablc
rcsult in Japan was cxplosivc assct ination (which is alrcady biting
in China today). Tc Nikkci indcx hit an alltimc high ol almost
39,000 on 29 cccmbcr 1989. Choicc propcrtics in Tokyo sold
at 81.5 million pcr squarc mctcr (or 8180,000 pcr squarc loot in
currcnt dollars). Vhcn thc bubblc burst, trillions wcrc wipcd out
in thc collapsc ol thc stock and rcal cstatc markcts. Twcnty ycars
latcr, thc Nikkci was crccping along bclow thc 10,000 mark.
Tc ycar ol thc Rising Sun was good lor yct anothcr objcct lcs
son. !n thc Unitcd Statcs, 1992 markcd thc birth ol thc longcst
cxpansion sincc thc midninctccnth ccntury, whcn rcliablc statis
tics bccamc availablc.
49
sscntially, it lastcd until 2007, thc ycar
bclorc thc crash. Tc boom was intcrruptcd only bricy by an
cightmonth stumblc bclow 1 pcrccnt growth in 2001. Tat was
in thc altcrmath ol thc dotcom bubblc prickcd in March 2000.
Tc cclinists wcrc not imprcsscd.
Just vc ycars bclorc Amcricas ltccnycar boom, thc Johns
Hopkins acadcmic avid Callco had callcd thc Unitcd Statcs a
hcgcmon in dccay. !t was sct on a coursc that points to an igno
minious cnd, hc prcdictcd.
50
Now, at thc thrcshold ol Amcricas
labulous long run, thc scholar dcvotcd an cntirc chaptcr ol Te
Bankrupting of America to cclinc Rcvisitcd. Vhy anothcr round
ol gloom: His answcr was dcindustrialization. !t occupics a placc
ol honor in thc Hall ol cclinism, ncxt to thc thcorics ol many
othcr authors who argucd that making stu bcats invcnting and
dcsigning, moving and markcting, trading and banking. Most ol
thc ncw scrvicc jobs wcrc not in hightcch or high valucaddcd,
Callco claimcd, but in lastlood chains, discount rctail storcs . . .
and similar lowwagc scctors.
51
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 26 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
27
!n short, Amcricas bcst days wcrc ovcr again. !t was cvolv
ing into a land ol hamburgcr ippcrs, pizza boys, and bigbox rctail
clcrks. !n lact thc oppositc was truc, thc majority ol ncw jobs wcrc
adding valuc abovc avcragc. Tc simplcst and bcst mcasurc ol valuc
crcation is rcal GP pcr workcr. !n thc past lty ycars, thc Unitcd
Statcs has consistcntly outrankcd its ncarcst compctitors, including
Japan and Gcrmany, by imprcssivc margins, as is shown in gurc 2.
52
2. Real GDP per Employed Person (2010 U.S. dollars)
souvcv: U.S. 8urcau ol Labor Statistics, ivision ol !ntcrnational Labor Compar
isons, 15 August 2011.
53
Anothcr lavoritc ol 1980sstylc cclinism was Vcstcrn
uropc. !n 1987, Callco and othcr admircrs ol thc ld Contincnt
thought that thc uropcan Community was poiscd to outstrip thc
hcgcmon in dccay. Tc Unitcd Statcs was no longcr suprcmc.
YEAR
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
5
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
5
2
0
1
0
120,000
2
0
1
0

U
S
D
Japan
Germany
United States
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 27 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
28
!ts cdgc gonc, thc Unitcd Statcs was oundcring amid grcat dan
gcrs. !l thcrc is a way out, it lics through uropc. History has
comc lull circlc: thc ld Vorld is nccdcd to rcstorc balancc to thc
Ncw.
54
Tc problcm with Amcrica was too much military spcnd
ing, an undisciplincd budgct, nancial disordcr, a glaring lack
ol crcativc invcstmcnt. How much bcttcr positioncd wcrc thc
uropcans with thcir stablc policics lavorablc to busincss invcst
mcnt! Hcncc Amcrica should draw inspiration lrom Vcstcrn
uropc. Vith its hcalthicr cconomy, thc hall contincnt was mov
ing toward a morc pcrlcct union. To boot, its govcrnmcnts wcrc
morc ccicnt than thc Amcrican.
55
Tc problcm with this asscssmcnt was that in thc 1990s thc
Unitcd Statcs would grow at an annual avcragc ol 3.5 pcrccnt and
uropc (U15) by lcss than 2 pcrccnt (scc gurc 3). 8y thc timc
3. Real GDP Growth Rates, 19912011
souvcv: U.S. cpartmcnt ol Agriculturc, conomic Rcscarch Scrvicc, Historical
GP and Growth Ratcs, http://www.crs.usda.gov/ata/Macrocconomics/ata/
HistoricalRcalGP\alucs.xls.
YEAR
6
4
0
2
6
4
2
P
E
R
C
E
N
T
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
1
Japan
EU-15
United States
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 28 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
29
thc dccadc was ovcr, uncmploymcnt in thc Unitcd Statcs had lallcn
to bclow 4 pcrccnt, which is dcncd as lullcmploymcnt. !n thc
U15, it stood at 9 pcrccnt. So much lor thc End of Work, a stcw
ol Malthus and Marx, cookcd up at thc timc by Jcrcmy Rilkin.
As his book had it, thc cntirc globc would soon run out ol jobs
bccausc ol automation and inlormation tcchnology.
56
Tc Unitcd
Statcs stubbornly rcluscd to obcy what was ocrcd as an iron law
ol history. So did thc Asian cconomics.
Tc prccmincnt cclinist ol thc 1980s was Paul Kcnncdy, thc
Yalc historian, who publishcd Te Rise and Fall of the Great Powers
in 1987. Tc ccntral argumcnt ol thc 700pagc tomc was this: Tc
Unitcd Statcs now runs thc risk, so lamiliar to historians, ol thc
risc and lall ol prcvious Grcat Powcrs, ol . . . impcrial ovcrstrctch.
vcrstrctch mcant that thc sum total ol thc Unitcd Statcs global
intcrcsts and obligations is . . . lar largcr than thc countrys powcr
to dclcnd thcm all simultancously.
57
!n an opcd vcrsion, Kcnncdy
providcd this chccklist ol dccay: ovcrall growth lagging bchind
that ol its chicl rivals, thc social problcms ol its inncr citics, thc
croding inlrastructurc, and thc shortcomings ol its cducational
systcm. !t all addcd up to rclativc dcclinc, just as in thc casc ol
8ritain, which oncc was also No. 1. Now thc ncw numbcr onc
powcr is laltcring.
58
History had spokcn, and thcrc was only onc dcccnt choicc lclt
lor thc abouttobcdclrockcd supcrpowcr: to managc its aairs
so that thc crosion progrcsscd slowly and smoothly.
59
Gct your
housc in ordcr, cut back on proigacy and impcrial ambitions,
counsclcd this lormcr 8riton. Tc most trcnchant critiquc ol Kcn
ncdys cclinism was Samucl Huntingtons scminal Foreign Aairs
articlc in 1988.
60
Hc rcscrvcd his sharpcst attack lor a classic ol
cclinism: thc stcady shrinkagc ol Amcricas sharc ol thc global
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 29 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
30
cconomy. To losc GP was to losc grcatncss, was thc gist ol Kcn
ncdys indictmcnt.
8ut it all dcpcnds on how thc numbcrs arc parscd. !l 1945 is
thc basc linc, thc Unitcd Statcs was indccd on thc skids. At thc cnd
ol historys most murdcrous war, thc Amcrican sharc ol thc global
cconomy is commonly cstimatcd at onchall. Naturally, as uropc,
Japan, and thc Sovict Union rccupcratcd, that abnormal takc was
bound to shrink.
61
8y 1950, thc wcight ol thc Amcrican cconomy
was down to 27 pcrccnt, which is still cnormous whcn comparcd
with anothcr basclinc: thc cvc ol Vorld Var !. At that point, thc
Unitcd Statcs was good lor only onclth ol thc worlds total. !n
thc 1970s, thc avcragc sharc was ncarly 27 pcrccnt and at thc cnd
ol thc naughts ol thc twcntyrst ccntury a bit morc than 26 pcr
ccnt.
62
Tc data dcmonstratc obstinatc continuity oncc thc anomaly
ol post1945 is ignorcd.
Tc morc gcncral problcm lurkcd clscwhcrc. Vhcn Kcnncdy
lookcd at thc two nations at thc top, thc Unitcd Statcs and thc
USSR, hc discovcrcd a kind ol compctitivc dccadcncc, a tcrm
coincd by thc Sovictologist Lcopold Labcdz somc lorty ycars ago.
8oth wcrc dcclining, but thc Unitcd Statcs was sinking lastcr,
Kcnncdy concludcd. Actually, it was thc othcr way around. Tc
Sovict/lormcr Sovict sharc halvcd bctwccn thc 1970s and thc
1990s, which is an cnormous plungc by any historical standard.
Kcnncdy ccrtainly did not think thc Sovict Union would collapsc
at thc rst scrious tcsting
63
vcry lcw pcoplc thought so
64
but
collapsc thc USSR did, a mcrc lour ycars altcr Te Rise and Fall
camc out. And why: 8ccausc whatcvcr symptoms ol dccadcncc thc
Unitcd Statcs displaycd, thc Sovict Union had thcm in multiplcs.
Kcnncdy had so much right, cxccpt lor thc namc ol thc loscr.
Muscovy was ovcrstrctchcd. !t had to policc and subsidizc its
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 30 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
31
impovcrishcd ast uropcan cmpirc. !t had to kccp aoat its Latin
Amcrican satrapy in Cuba, and pay lor Castros advancc guard in
thc hcart ol Alrica. !t was ghting an unwinnablc war in Alghan
istan. !t spcnt anywhcrc lrom two to thrcc timcs morc on its mil
itary (as a sharc ol a much smallcr cconomy) than did thc Unitcd
Statcs, straining undcr thc addcd burdcn ol kccping up with Rca
ganitc arms racing. Totalitarian industrialization undcr Stalin had
brought victory ovcr Nazi Gcrmany. Now thc modcl was grinding
to a halt, colliding at cvcry stcp with thc dcmands ol a modcrn
cconomy. Tc Sovict Union lackcd capital markcts and capitalists,
it sticd compctition and globalization conditions abounding in
thc Unitcd Statcs. Vorsc, thc Sovict Union sucrcd lrom cultural
pathologics that madc thc Unitcd Statcs look likc an cxcmplar ol
strapping hcalth. Tc list was cndlcss, ranging lrom alcoholism as
a national discasc via plummcting lcrtility ratcs to thc lowcst lilc
cxpcctancy in thc dcvclopcd world.
Tc Sovict Union was thc provcrbial timc bomb waiting to
cxplodc. Tc triggcr was thc pricc ol oil. !n 1980, crudc lctchcd
8100 pcr barrcl (all gurcs in 2012 dollars). Vhcn Mikhail Gor
bachcv was anointcd as gcncral sccrctary vc ycars latcr, oil stood
at 857. Vhcn thc Sovict Union committcd suicidc by abolishing
itscll on Christmas ay 1991, oil sold lor 837, dropping to its
lowcst low, 817, scvcn ycars latcr. At that point, oil was chcapcr
in rcal tcrms than it had bccn just bclorc thc rst oil shock, in
1973.
65
Tis Uppcr\olta with nuclcar wcapons, as thc Gcr
man chanccllor Hclmut Schmidt likcd to quip, was in ccct a
Tird Vorld cxtraction cconomy chaincd to thc priccs ol raw
matcrials, cspccially ol oil and gas. Tc sourcc ol its powcr had
bccn mincrals and nukcs, as thc long slidc altcr Gorbachcvs risc
dcmonstratcd.
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 31 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
32
Russia was morc likc Habsburg without Latin Amcrican gold
and silvcr, which had paid lor an cmpirc on which thc sun ncvcr
scts until it ran out. r likc thc ttoman mpirc, oncc a lormi
dablc war machinc that drovc all thc way to 8osnia in thc wcst
and 8asra in thc cast, but provcd immunc to modcrnization. And
so thc Sovict mpirc was not at all likc thc Unitcd Statcs. !t did
not posscss thc countlcss rcncwablc cncrgics ol an cconomy that
was thc worlds largcst and most sophisticatcd, hcncc blcsscd with
myriad sourccs ol rcjuvcnation. !n July 1990, Mikhail Gorbachcv
conccdcd to thc Vcst what Stalin and succcssors had lcrociously
rcluscd lor lorty ycars: Gcrmanys rcunication within thc Vcst.
Tc titanic strugglc bcgan and was playcd out in Gcrmany, and so
Gorbachcvs ycs was nothing lcss than Moscows capitulation in
thc Cold Var. To givc away ast Gcrmany, thc stratcgic bracc,
was to givc away thc cntirc cmpirc.
Tc summcr ol 1990 thus opcncd a ncw chaptcr in thc annals
ol impcrial ovcrstrctch. As thc Sovict Union, lor lorty ycars thc
bcar at thc door, bcgan to limp away, thc Unitcd Statcs mcrcly
stumblcd into a short rcccssion. Yct to dwcll on this snapshot is
to miss thc largcr point, which was a rcvolution in intcrnational
aairs.
Suddcnly, thc rarcst momcnt ol intcrnational history was at
hand: whcn onc intcrnational systcm givcs way to anothcr. Tc
twopowcr world, known as bipolarity, vanishcd, and thc last man
standing was thc Unitcd Statcs. Tc stratcgic conscqucnccs camc
just as swiltly. As thc Sovict Union was collapsing, thc Amcrica
ol Gcorgc H. V. 8ush bcgan to prcparc lor war against Saddam
Husscin, and this in a rcgion whcrc Amcrican lorccs would ncvcr
havc darcd vcnturc whilc Moscows powcr was still intact. vcntu
ally, 700,000 troops wcrc cldcd in !raq, a quasially ol Moscow,
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 32 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
33
and thcy won handily. Tc dralt was not rcinstatcd, nor was thc
cconomy put on a war looting. !nstcad, it movcd into thc longcst
cxpansion cvcr, in spitc ol two morc wars: in Alghanistan altcr
9/11 and again in !raq in 2003. Such was thc rclativc crosion ol
thc Unitcd Statcs position prcdictcd just a lcw ycars carlicr.
Tnv Twvx:vFivs: Cvx:uvv:
Tnv Cnixvsv Avv Co:ixc:
cclinism mcrcilully took a brcak in thc 1990s, pcrhaps bccausc
thc Unitcd Statcs was cnjoying such a nicc run altcr thc suicidc ol
thc Sovict Union. Japan, thc gcocconomic killcr app ol thc 1980s,
was still alivc, but out ol thc racc, whcrc it has bccn cvcr sincc.
Stuck in thc Lost ccadc, thc supcrstar ol thc 1980s no longcr
stokcd Amcrican angst. Tough Japancsc automakcrs continucd to
dccimatc ctroits 8ig Trcc, thc ballyhoo about Japan had dwin
dlcd into cmbarrassing lootnotcs to history. Gloom is thc domi
nant mood in Japan thcsc days, rcportcd an Asian commcntator,
whilc Amcrican capitalism is rcsurgcnt, condcnt, and brash.
66
!t docsnt takc much to vault lrom cclinism to triumphalism
whcn thc gcopolitics is right. Hadnt Amcrica just won thc lorty
ycars war, aka Cold Var, thc longcst in modcrn history: Vhat
othcr country could win a hot war, as thc Unitcd Statcs had donc
in !raq in 1991, lrom six thousand milcs away: Vith a hightcch,
spaccdbascd panoply worthy ol Vorld Var !\: Tcrc was no ncw
No. 1 crccping up on thc Unitcd Statcs nowhcrc on thc horizon.
Vhy cvcn think about a military thrcat, as in thc Sovict days: U.S.
Sccrctary ol Statc Madclcinc Albright crowcd that Amcricas clout
was so daunting as to rcndcr its usc unncccssary. 8ut il wc havc
to usc lorcc, it is bccausc wc arc Amcrica, wc arc thc indispcnsablc
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 33 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
34
nation. Vc stand tall, and wc scc lurthcr than othcr countrics into
thc luturc. . . .
67
cprcssion had turncd into scllaggrandizcmcnt.
Altcr thc First !raq Var, which cost only 294 Amcrican livcs
out ol a total ol 700,000 dcploycd, thc Washington Post columnist
Charlcs Krauthammcr pourcd sarcasm on ycstcrdays cclinists:
!l thc Roman cmpirc had dcclincd at |our| ratc, youd bc rcading
this column in Latin.
68
Tc U.S. cconomy, boostcd by Rcaganitc
dcrcgulation and Clintons wcllarc rclorms, was soaring. As thc
budgct wcnt into surplus, uncmploymcnt virtually vanishcd. !n
uropc, by contrast, it rosc abovc 10 pcrccnt in thc latc 1990s.
cclinc was ycstcrday, now thc Unitcd Statcs had all thc brag
ging rights. Tc dcning lcaturc ol world aairs was globaliza
tion, cxultcd thc New York Times Tomas Fricdman at thc 1997
Vorld conomic Forum, and |il| you had to dcsign a country
bcst suitcd to compctc in such a world, |it would bc| todays Amcr
ica. Forgottcn was M!T!, thc allknowing and allpowcrlul Jap
ancsc Ministry ol !ntcrnational Tradc and !ndustry. Japan was no
longcr thc ragc, though topdown modcrnization would soon bc
culogizcd again as China bccamc thc ncw modcl. Now thc hcrocs
ol thc dotcom agc bcstrodc thc carth. Tcy wcrc thc ncw mastcrs
ol thc univcrsc, and thcy wcrc all Amcricans. Tosc who uscd to
go on a pilgrimagc to Japan now invadcd Silicon \allcy. Fricdman
concludcd on a triumphant notc: Globalization is us.
69

Tc occasional cclinist harrumph in thosc days soundcd
cithcr quirky or gcncric likc a ngcr cxcrcisc at thc piano. dward
Luttwak, a promincnt stratcgist in Vashington, thought that thc
Unitcd Statcs would turn into a thirdworld country by 2020.
Tc path sccmcd straight cnough straight downhill. At any
ratc, thc country was alrcady adapting to its latc by acquiring thc
ncccssary thirdworld traits ol latalistic dctachmcnt.
70
Tis was in
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 34 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
35
1992, on thc cusp ol Amcricas longcst boom, which cxtcndcd all
thc way to 2007.
At thc cnd ol thc naughts, dcclinc was back with a vcngcancc.
8ack was Paul Kcnncdy with a rcmakc ol Te Rise and Fall, this
timc bccausc ol thc global nancial crisis triggcrcd by thc lall ol thc
housc ol Lchman on 15 Scptcmbcr 2008. Vhilc Russia, China, ct
al. might bc sucring sctbacks, thc biggcst loscr is undcrstood to
bc Unclc Sam. Chronic scal dccits and military ovcrstrctch
thc twin scourgcs ol his 1987 book wcrc nally doing in thc
Unitcd Statcs, and thc global tcctonic powcr shilt, toward Asia
and away lrom thc Vcst, sccms hard to rcvcrsc.
71
Tis shilt was
onc rcason lor Amcricas slidc, thc othcr was Amcrican political
incompctcncc. Tcrc was but onc consolation: grcat powcrs takc
an awlul long timc to collapsc.
72
Tc nicc thing about prophccy is
that doom ncvcr comcs with a datc.
Tc crash ol 2008 has inictcd prolound damagc on |Amcr
icas| standing in thc world, warncd Rogcr Altman, lormcrly thc
dcputy trcasury sccrctary, thc crisis is an important gcopolitical
sctback.
73
Gcrman nancc ministcr Pccr Stcinbruck prcdictcd,
Tc U.S. will losc its status as thc supcrpowcr ol thc global nan
cial systcm |which| will bccomc morc multipolar.
74
Tc Harvard
historian Niall Fcrguson wcnt hallway. n thc onc hand, thc bal
ancc ol global powcr is bound to shilt. n thc othcr, commcn
tators should always hcsitatc bclorc thcy prophcsy thc dcclinc and
lall ol thc Unitcd Statcs.
75
Hc rcmaincd as sibyllinc two ycars latcr.
mpircs, hc wrotc, lunction in apparcnt cquilibrium lor somc
unknowablc pcriod. And thcn, quitc abruptly, thcy collapsc.
76
So
disastcr will strikc, or it may not.
Actually, most cmpircs takc a long timc to collapsc, likc thc
Roman, ttoman, or Habsburg vcrsions, whosc dcmisc unloldcd
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 35 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
36
ovcr ccnturics. Tcy collapsc abruptly only in war, as did thc tsa
rist, Austrian, Vilhclminc, and Turkish cmpircs in Vorld Var !,
and Japans in Vorld Var !!. vcn in thcsc cascs, only Habsburg
and thc Portc litcrally disintcgratcd. Japan lost its shortlivcd war
timc conqucsts, but thc nation as such rcmaincd intact, turning
into a commcrcial giant twcntyvc ycars latcr. Russia just changcd
colors, lrom Vhitc to Rcd, and thcn wcnt on to cxpand into
thc hcart ol uropc. !t would takc anothcr grcat war, thc Cold
Var, to dismantlc thc Sovict cmpirc scvcntylour ycars latcr.
Yct this kind ol war is not in Amcricas luturc. Tcrc is no mcan
inglul way in which othcrs could dcstroy thc Unitcd Statcs, cxccpt at
thc pricc ol scllimmolation. !n contrast to othcr cmpircs, thc Unitcd
Statcs will not bc lcllcd by war. nly thc Unitcd Statcs can do in thc
Unitcd Statcs as it almost did 150 ycars ago in thc Civil Var, in
an attcmpt that is so dccply ctchcd in thc Amcrican mcmory that it
docs not invitc rcpctition. !n this ccntury, sloth, hubris, or proigacy
might gnaw at thc vitality ol thc nation, as cclinists havc prophc
sicd lor dccadcs. 8ut whcn and whcthcr this would comc to pass is
indccd unknowablc, to rccall Fcrgusons kcy disclaimcr. No such
hcsitation bclcll thc Cassandras ol cclinc 5.0.
Somc ol thcir lorc was again simply gcncric, that is, divorccd
lrom timc and circumstancc and thus achingly lamiliar to thosc
who rcmcmbcr lty ycars ol similar wisdom. Two wccks altcr
thc lall ol thc housc ol Lchman in 2008, thc xlord don John
Gray strcsscd a wcllwrought thcmc: Tc cra ol Amcrican global
lcadcrship . . . is ovcr.
77
Actually, gcncric cclinism nccds nci
thcr datc nor triggcr. !l it isnt rcpcatcd by thc samc prophct tcn,
twcnty ycars down thc lanc, it is gcncrational. So a lcw months
bclorc thc Crash ol 2008, thc youngish Parag Khanna, ol thc Ncw
Amcrica Foundation in Vashington, intoncd, Amcricas standing
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 36 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
37
in thc world rcmains in stcady dcclinc. Tc discasc was impc
rial ovcrstrctch, and thc pricc was thc wcakcning ol Amcricas
armcd lorccs through ovcrusc.
78
Tat had a lamiliar ring rccall
Paul Kcnncdys dirgc twcnty ycars carlicr and so did thc rcport
that Amcrican powcr is in dcclinc around thc world. Tcsc obitcr
dicta could havc bccn pcnncd in 1958, 1968, 1978. So could this
onc: Vc arc compcting and losing in a gcopolitical markct
placc alongsidc thc worlds othcr supcrpowcrs.
79
Vho wcrc thcy: !t uscd to bc Russia in thc 1950s and 1970s, and
Japan in thc 1980s. Now it was thc uropcan Union and China.
For uropc, it was thc sccond timc around thc block. Twcnty ycars
carlicr, an oldcr gcncration ol doomstcrs had toutcd thc rcjuvcna
tion ol uropc and Japan, hcncc thc rclativc diminishing ol thc
cnormous Amcrican supcriority.
80
A lact chcck: uring thosc two
dccadcs, thc U27s sharc ol thc global cconomy had droppcd by
5 pcrccntagc points, and Japans by thrcc, whilc thc Unitcd Statcs
takc had rcmaincd thc samc. !n thc compctitivc dccadcncc racc,
gold and silvcr wcrc actually going to thc U and Japan.
And yct, claimcd Khanna in 2008, Amcrica is isolatcd whilc
uropc and China occupy thc two cnds ol thc grcat urasian land
mass that is thc pcrcnnial ccntcr ol gravity ol gcopolitics. Gonc
was not only thc Unitcd Statcs but also that colossus bctwccn 8cr
lin and 8cijing known as Russia and occupying clcvcn timc zoncs.
uropc was suddcnly back again, pcrhaps bccausc it had cnjoycd a
shortlivcd uptick in growth just prior to thc Crash ol 2008. nc
and a hall ycars latcr, thc ld Contincnts days in thc sun wcrc
ovcr, and so Time unvcilcd Tc !ncrcdiblc Shrinking uropc.
81

Up or down pushing thc story is punditrys bcst lricnd.
Anothcr rccyclcd classic ol cclinism rcad, vcr thc past
dccadc, thc Unitcd Statcs sccmcd to havc lost ground in almost cvcry
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 37 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
38
conccivablc arca political, cconomic, social, and intcrnational
and . . . its bcaring in tcrms ol valucs and principlcs. Arrogancc,
bclligcrcncc, individualism, and violcncc wcrc trumping thc valucs
ol human rights, cquality, participation. . . . As just rctribution,
thc Unitcd Statcs is hcadcd lor hard timcs.
82
Tosc wcrc thc just
wagcs ol sin. Cotton Mathcr, 8ostons stcrn (and inucntial) Puri
tan ministcr, could not havc put it morc cruclly thrcc hundrcd ycars
carlicr, in 1709.
83
Finally, two lorcign voiccs. nc was Kishorc Mahbubanis, Sin
gaporcs lormcr UN ambassador, whosc bid to succccd Sccrctary
Gcncral Ko Annan had bccn thwartcd by Vashington. Hc
chroniclcd not just thc dcgcncration ol Amcrica but thc triumph ol
Asia, as cclcbratcd in thc subtitlc ol his book Te New Asian Hemi-
sphere: Te Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East. Tc tonc was
avuncular, shading o into thc patronizing: Sadly . . . , Vcstcrn
intcllcctual lilc continucs to bc dominatcd by thosc who continuc
to cclcbratc thc suprcmacy ol thc Vcst. . . . So thc Vcst rcad:
thc Unitcd Statcs was losing its grip not only on powcr but also
on rcality go lrom Chaptcr 11 straight to thc couch. 8y contrast,
thc rcst ol thc world has movcd on. A stcady dclcgitimization ol
Vcstcrn powcr . . . is undcrway. Now othcr nations arc . . . morc
compctcnt in managing global . . . challcngcs.
84
And who would inhcrit thc carth: nly lour rcal candidatcs
|could| providc global lcadcrship today: thc Unitcd Statcs, thc
uropcan Union, China and !ndia. Japan, with thc worlds scc
ondlargcst GP and a pcr capita incomc tcn timcs largcr than
Chinas, did not makc it into this lcllow Asians panthcon. Tc
Unitcd Statcs: As victim ol thc ncocons on thc right and thc
ncoprotcctionists on thc lclt, it cannot bridgc a gap bctwccn
itscll and thc world that has ncvcr bccn widcr. So Amcrica was
bcyond rcdcmption, thc blamc lalling on both 8ush lortythrcc on
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 38 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
39
thc right and 8arack bama on thc lclt, whosc cmocrats wcrc
bouncing around protcctionist shibbolcths during thc 2008 cam
paign. Rich and populous, uropc didnt makc thc cut, sincc it
has not bccn ablc to cxtcnd its bcnign inucncc outsidc its tcrri
tory. !ndia: !t is by lar thc wcakcst ol thc lour. Tat lclt China,
which should cvcntually takc ovcr thc mantlc ol global lcadcrship
lrom Amcrica.
85
Tis was thc politc vcrsion ol Atlantis Lost wishlul think
ing wrappcd in dctachcd analysis. Lct us complcmcnt this takc
with thc dyspcptic, noholdsbarrcd vcrsion ol a Russian who had
sccn thc Sovict cmpirc discmbowcl itscll and, in an act ol psychic
rcvcngc, projcctcd thc samc latc onto thc Unitcd Statcs. Tc Sovict
Union had succumbcd to its tcrminal cconomic incompctcncc,
and so will thc Unitcd Statcs: At somc point during thc coming
ycars . . . , thc cconomic systcm ol thc Unitcd Statcs will tcctcr
and lall. . . . Amcricas cconomy will cvaporatc likc thc morning
mist.
86
Tc author thcn mcticulously tallicd all thc similaritics,
as hc saw thcm, bctwccn thc Sovict Union and thc Unitcd Statcs.
8oth wcrc bastions ol militarism, thc worlds jailcrs, and dcadly
lailurcs in cducation, cthnic intcgration, and hcalth carc. Tcy
wcrc cvil cmpircs both.
Ncar thc cnd ol naughts, cvcn bclorc thc Crash ol 2008, thc
ncw cclinist conscnsus had scttlcd on Asia on China rst and
lorcmost, on !ndia sccond, and on Russia and 8razil somcwhcrc
down thc linc. Tcsc wcrc thc lablcd 8R!C countrics, thc quartct
that would inhcrit thc world. Tc drivcr ol thc ncw dispcnsation
was an old onc. Tc Unitcd Statcs was losing thc growth racc to
thosc who wcrc lorging ahcad at doublcdigit spccd. !n mid dccadc,
a lormcr Japan boostcr likc Clydc Prcstowitz mcrcly changcd thc
namcs ol thc candidatcs in his Tree Billion New Capitalists: Te
Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East.
87
Tc chaptcr hcadings
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 39 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
40
tcll thc talc. !n this ncw world, things would bc Madc in China
and Scrviccd in !ndia. And Amcrica was on thc Road to Ruin.
A lormcr cditor ol thc Economist, 8ill mmott, saw gcopoli
tics lollowing cconomics, with powcr growing not lrom thc bar
rcl ol a gun but lrom GP and tradc statistics. Vasnt thc Vorld
8ank prcdicting that China and !ndia might triplc thcir output
in a mattcr ol ycars: 8y thc latc 2020s, China would ovcrtakc thc
Unitcd Statcs. And so, goodbyc, Amcrica. How the Power Strug-
gle between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade,
proclaimcd thc subtitlc ol his book Rivals.
88
Japan, stuck in rcal
dcclinc, was in again, and thc Unitcd Statcs was out.
Tc Newsweek International cditor Farccd Zakaria, born in !ndia
and traincd at Yalc and Harvard, put an original gloss on an old
story in 2008. !t wasnt that Amcrica was dccrcpit and dcclining, as
many prcvious authors had argucd. Amcrica still had many asscts
on thc lcdgcr. thcrs wcrc simply growing lastcr at an awcsomc,
unbrcakablc spccd. A billion pcoplc in !ndia, 1.3 billion in China
how could so much mass and momcntum bc stoppcd: Hcncc it was
thc risc ol thc rcst that would dwarl thc Unitcd Statcs. And thc
luturc would bclong to thc postAmcrican world.
89
Two ycars
latcr, thc historian Niall Fcrguson classicd thc Unitcd Statcs as a
dcparting powcr, up against thc arriving powcr that was China.
90

xit Gullivcr, cntcr thc Middlc Kingdom. Finally lor good:
Not yct. Four ycars altcr thc Crash ol 2008, thc Economist put a
strapping Unclc Sam on its covcr, chccring him as Tc Comcback
Kid. !nsidc, thc wcckly announccd, Lcd by its invcntivc privatc
scctor, thc cconomy is rcmaking itscll. ld wcakncsscs arc bcing
rcmcdicd and ncw strcngths discovcrcd, with an agility that has
much to tcach to stagnant uropc and dirigistc Asia.
91
Tc Unitcd
Statcs was on thc up, uropc and Asia wcrc trcading watcr. ar
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 40 8/15/13 11:14 AM
I T S DECLI NE TI ME I N A MER I CA
41
licr in thc ycar, thc American Interest, showing Unclc Sam punch
ing with an ovcrsizcd boxing glovc, had put thc samc titlc Tc
Comcback Kid on its covcr. !nsidc, thc journal prcscntcd arti
clcs likc How Amcrica !s Poiscd to Rctakc thc Lcad in thc Vorld
conomy, Tc ncc and Futurc ollar, and Tc Population
8oon.
92
Foreign Aairs put thc cmisc ol thc Rcst on its covcr.
!nsidc, thc titlc ol thc lcad piccc rcad, 8rokcn 8R!Cs: Vhy thc
Rcst Stoppcd Rising. Highlighting thc tumbling growth ratcs ol
thc quartct, thc author addcd, Nonc ol this should bc surprising
bccausc it is hard to sustain rapid growth lor morc than a dccadc.
93
Usually, cclinists just comc back, thcy ncvcr rcpcnt. nc did:
Rogcr Altman, thc lormcr dcputy trcasury sccrctary turncd busi
ncss consultant. A prophct ol dcclinc in 2008, hc cclcbratcd Amcrica
thc 8cautilul lour ycars latcr.
94
Tc U.S. banking systcm had rccov
crcd lastcr than anyonc could havc imagincd. Capital and liquid
ity havc bccn rcbuilt to lcvcls unsccn in dccadcs. Tc Unitcd Statcs
had madc a hugc lcap in industrial compctitivcncss and could look
lorward to bringing back jobs lrom thc rising rcst. And thc brcath
taking incrcasc in oil and gas production would add morc than onc
pcrccntagc point to annual GP growth within vc ycars. cclin
ism, it sccms, is a cxiblc dcvicc. !n this casc, it took lour ycars to
transition lrom Jcrcmiah to Pollyanna.
95
Trough cclincs 1.0 and
4.0, thc Amcrican Phocnix had riscn at comparablc spccds.
Four ycars altcr Rivals had givcn thc nod to China and !ndia,
its author thought that thc Amcrican ccntury was not ovcr. Tis
might bc thc momcnt to rcthink all thc lashionablc assumptions
about Amcricas dcclinc.
96
Anothcr rclormcd cclinist, who had
chccrcd Japan, China, and !ndia in succcssion, now bct against
thcm: Vc arc told again and again how China has cnjoycd thrcc
dccadcs ol cconomic growth in cxccss ol 10 pcrccnt annually,
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 41 8/15/13 11:14 AM
THE MY TH OF A MER I CA S DECLI NE
42
and how !ndia and now othcrs wcrc scoring in similar ways. 8ut
rcmcmbcr all prcvious cconomic miraclcs in uropc and Asia.
Tc truth is that thcy all bccamc unsustainablc.
97
!n his prcsidcntial campaign ol 2012, thc Rcpublican Mitt
Romncy soundcd thc trumpct lor thc grcatncss ol this country.
Vhcrcas Prcsidcnt bama had dcatcd thc notion ol Amcrican
cxccptionalism, by noting that cvcrybody clsc bclicvcd in his or
hcr own countrys cxccptionalism,
98
Romncy prcscntcd himscll as
an unapologctic bclicvcr in thc grcatncss ol this country who pro
claimcd, Tis ccntury must bc an Amcrican ccntury.
99
So, in lact,
did thc prcsidcnt. Amcrica is back, hc cxultcd in his 2012 Statc ol
thc Union addrcss. Anyonc who tclls you othcrwisc, who tclls you
that Amcrica is in dcclinc or that our inucncc has wancd, docsnt
know what thcyrc talking about. Tcn hc soundcd a kcy thcmc ol
thc Clinton administration: Amcrica rcmains thc onc indispcns
ablc nation in world aairs.
100

Tis sanguinc portrayal ol thc country niccly shows that cclin
ism is a mattcr ol datcs, just likc trcason, as Tallcyrand quippcd. Tc
night is always darkcst during a prcsidcntial campaign. !n occ,
cspccially as a sccondtcrm clcction is looming, it is morning again
in Amcrica, to rccall Ronald Rcagans lamous T\ spot. So no
morc dcclinc lor bama, as hc prcparcd lor his sccond run. Tis
notsocxccptional country was again thc indispcnsablc nation.
A ncw cyclc was unlolding, but trcnds, as this chaptcr has shown,
arc madc up in thc minds ol bcholdcrs, and thcn lor a purposc bc
it political or pcdagogical. nly timc can tcll what was a blip or a
ncw pattcrn. 8clorc wc look at longcrtcrm lorccs and numbcrs in
chaptcr 3, lct us ask why cclinism is such an cvcrgrccn. Vhat arc
thc lunctions ol gloom and doom in thc political discoursc:
MythofAmericasDecline_5pp.indd 42 8/15/13 11:14 AM