NOAA/NWS Binghamton, NY

Winter Storm Potential Thursday
Updated: Tuesday 2:30 PM 2/11/2014
By: Warning Coordination Meteorologist Dave Nicosia
This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton Service Area only: FOR CENTRAL NY This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton, and Oneonta. FOR NORTHEAST PA This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre.

Changes since yesterday’s briefing
• More detail provided. • Storm is trended more to the west increasing chances for heavy snow in northeast PA and the Catskills. • Winter storm watches may be issued. • Still uncertain as to how far west the storm will spread heavy snow.

• Major winter storm will impact the northeast U.S. and middle Atlantic states Thursday to Thursday night. • Confidence is increasing that the storm will affect at least parts of northeast PA and the Catskills with a heavy snowfall.
– 6 to 10 inches of snowfall possible. – Farther west 3 to 5 inches from Bradford and Susquehanna Counties in PA through the Binghamton area and northward to Utica. – 1 to 3 inches or less farther north and west.

• Still determining how far west the significant snows will spread. This is where the primary uncertainty lies. • Winds east to northeast of 5 to 15 mph gusts to 25 mph over the higher terrain. • It will be milder…with temperatures mainly in the 20s and lower 30s. • Stay tuned for further updates…

• Snow will spread north and reach northeast PA and the Catskills early Thursday morning. • The snow will spread farther west by Thursday afternoon. • The snow will peak in intensity late Thursday morning to late Thursday afternoon. • Snow tapers off Thursday evening.

Preliminary* Accumulations

This is our first estimate of snowfall and is subject to change especially if the storm tracks farther west.

• How far west the heavy snow makes it… is still in question. • Confidence level has increased to over 50% that much of northeast PA and the Catskills will see over 6 inches of snow from this storm. • Confidence is 30 to 50% farther west and even lower for our western fringe counties.

Chances for more than 6” of snowfall
10% to 30%

30% to 50%

50% to 70%

Temperatures and Winds
• Thursday morning: mainly teens, winds light easterly. • Thursday afternoon: mid 20s to lower 30s. winds northeast 10 to 15 mph gusts to 25 mph over the higher terrain. • Thursday night: mainly 20s with north to northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

• Main impact will be to travel. • Roads will become snow covered and very slippery. • Some blowing and drifting snow. • Temperatures will be milder than recent days.

Monitor Conditions!
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