U.K.

withdrawal from the European Union

Predict the outcome of the 2017 UK referendum on withdrawal from EU

Considering different aspects of the current relation between the UK and the EU such as the economy, politics, and its important position in the worldwide picture, our prediction for the outcome of the 2017 UK referendum on withdrawal from the EU is:

1.- The European Union and United Kingdom will renegotiate their economic relationship. We believe that non of the parties would benefit from a complete withdrawal of the. UK from the EU because it would affect the current fragile economy of the EU and the possibilities of market and trade of the UK. Half of the UK exports go to the European Union. If the UK left the EU, it would have to find a new market for those exports.

2.- The UK asks for more political flexibility within the European Union so countries can make their own decisions within the international community. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Mr. Cameron told the european newspapers that the EU was 'ripe for reform' and said that to compete with developing nations like India, China, Indonesia and Malaysia, the EU needed to be more open, think more about the cost it is putting on business -specially small firms- and interfere less in member states national affairs. (Winning, N., 2013)

We can conclude that the UK will not withdraw from the EU because of the economic strain that it will impose on both the UK and the EU. Because the UK is economically important to the EU and vise versa, the EU will be willing to make changes to their partnership. Some say that the referendum will never take place because the outcome could be

dangerous but we believe it will because not doing it would have a high political implication but it will focus on the economic and political aspects.[1]

Withdrawal from the European Union

According to the Treaty of Lisbon, article 50 of the Treaty on European Union states that the European Council shall propose guidelines for the conclusion of an agreement setting out the arrangements for withdrawal of a Member State.

Article 50: 1. Proposal Withdrawal Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. Negotiations Starts A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3.Decision Making The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned,

unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. Withdrawing State, none intervention in the European Council. Final Decision For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. Rejoining Steps If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49. [2]