ARTICLE IN PRESS

Hospitality Management 22 (2003) 129134

Discussion paper

A vision of tourism and the hotel industry in the 21st century

Ivanka Avelini Holjevac*
Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Opatija, Ika, Primorska 42, p.p. 97, 51410 Opatija, Croatia

Abstract The aim of this paper is to discuss the future of the tourism and hotel industry in view of the forecasted social and economic changes during the 21st century. Tourism and the hotel industry will become one of the largest world industries. The globalization (unication) and localization (diversication) processes will affect both world and regional tourism. The paper pursues the answers to the questions as to who will be the tourists of the future and what kind of needs and desires they will have? r 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Vision of the future; Tourism; Future hotel models; Globalization; Diversication; Quality

1. Introduction To envision the future is a difcult task, which requires vast knowledge, imagination and creativity and borders the domain of science ction. The world is entering the third millennium in which great changes are expected in all areas of the human interest, life and activity. These changes have been brought on by past and present man-made events, which have had both positive and negative consequences. Although tired of the present, humans are still curious; they are challengers, adventurers, and march bravely into the future. The question that is posed to us is, does the past determine the future and to what extent will the future be dened by presently unknown factors? As to our vision of the future two extremes are possible, a pessimistic or optimistic. The pessimistic vision predicts anarchy and chaos, merciless struggles between the privileged and the deprived, mans subordination to production,
*Tel.: +385-51-294-693; fax: +385-51-291-965. E-mail address: ivankaah@hika.hr (I.A. Holjevac). 0278-4319/03/$ - see front matter r 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/S0278-4319(03)00021-5

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technological control of life and work, market monopolies, an ecology which is subordinate to prot, wars and violence, man subjugated to science, virtual tourism, human cloningor in other words mankind made to the measure of society. The optimistic vision predicts a just society, freedom of work and thought, humanized labor, market competition and development, production subordinate to humans, the victory of mind over matter, humans as creators, humans rule over technology, democracy and peace, science in the work of mankind, global ecological consciousness, tourists freely traveling the world, humans as spiritual beingsor in other words society made to the measure of mankind. If quality signies the right to choose, then the choice is the optimistic vision of the world. The meaning of tourism quality can be derived from its denition. Quality is everything that the tourist requires and expects. Thus it is the task of tourism enterprises to meet these expectations while making a prot. In addition to nancial indicators, business performance in the future will also be measured by non-nancial indicators that will evaluate the impact the hotel industry on a variety of factors such as: improvement of the quality of life, preservation of nature, guiding society towards new spiritual values, contributing to peace and understanding between all nations, and creating a world in which all people are equal (a balance between the economy and ecology).

2. Guidelines for tourism of the future Human beings as travelers are the propelling force in the existence and development of tourism. As biological beings, humans not only have to satisfy their basic needs for food, beverages, sleep and shelter, but also to fulll their social and spiritual needs that among others include leisure, recreation and travel as well as others not yet identied. Tourism is the most important industry in the world in terms of the numbers of employees and its effect on the social and economical development of a region or country. It is an industry that will help developing countries solve their problems of unemployment and poverty by turning the potentials of these countriesi.e. natural and cultural heritageinto a prot. It is a clean industry, which will coincide with the green trend of the future that aims to preserve and conserve nature for future generations. This will be the great return to naturethe green wave. The coming millennium will be marked by signicant political, social, demographic and technological changes, and will denitely differ from the 20th century. As far as people are concerned, the 21st century will bring more leisure time, a higher standard of living and a better quality of life. The number of poor people will decline, and there will be no more famine. People will have more opportunities for both rest and recreational activities in their free time. Recreational and travel activities will be undertaken not only for the purpose of meeting the growing needs of people for leisure, but also for maintaining and caring for peoples health and longevity, for creating a life of comfort satisfaction and relaxation, or in other words

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improving the quality of life. Improving the quality of life is one of the great challenges for the tourism of the futurea challenge that in our opinion can and should be met. Leisure activities connected to active vacations and sports, physical and mental health, and pleasure represent the new tourist product called Wellness (Avelini Holjevac, 2000). The globalization process will continue, because tourism is a global business, a world industry without boundaries, open to all changes and improvements. Humans as travelers want to feel safe, free and at home, no matter where they are. Tourism will strive to achieve a balance between the two dissimilarities of unication and diversication, and to adopt the positive features of globalization, while emphasizing particularities and attractions through localization. The tourist market will be a free market common to all countries of the world. This is where the full extent of globalization will be realized. The common rules in this tourist village will be global computerized booking systems, global competition and large tourist enterprises that will dictate the economic rules and distribution of tourism prots. The globalization process will help to eliminate the rigid boundaries between countries with a view to creating a common market with just distribution, humanized labor and material and spiritual prosperity of all the people of the world. Only this type of economic and political process of globalization can be benecial to mankind and its future. For tourism, it will also mean prosperity. Future world tourism arrivals according to World Tourism Organization will increase from 673 million tourists in 2000 to 1 billion in 2010 and 1.6 billion in 2020 (WTO, 1997) (Table 1). These forecasts show that Europe will have the lowest tourist growth rate (3.2% and 3.1%), whereas the largest tourist growth rate is forecasted for East Asia and the Pacic (8.2% and 6.8%). A small number of tourism researchers have also attempted to predict the future of tourism. For example, Pizam (1999) presents his prediction of the future although he understands the risks of forecasting it (Sam Goldwyn, a noted Hollywood lm producer was reported to have said: never make forecasts, especially about the future). Pizams justication for undertaking this task is that the best way to envision the future is to create it. In the above article Pizam
Table 1 Tourist arrivals (in millions) Region Base year 1995 Forecasts 2000 Africa Americas East Asia/Pacic Europe Middle East South Asia World 20 110 81 334 14 4 563 26 131 105 386 19 6 673 2010 46 195 231 526 37 11 1046 2020 75 284 438 717 69 19 1602 Average annual growth rate (%) 19952000 5.4 3.6 5.2 3.0 6.4 5.6 3.6 20002010 5.7 4.0 8.2 3.2 7.1 6.8 4.5 20102020 5.1 3.8 6.8 3.1 6.5 5.8 4.4

Source: WTO, (1997).

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presents his own vision of life and tourism in the future by outlining the factors that will inuence life as a whole by the year 2050. These are the environment, demographics, economy and business, lifestyle and values, politics, housing, education, entertainment, shopping, and technology. From the above mentioned, he derives a specic vision of the future tourism and hotel industry. The author believes that, by the year 2050, tourism will be by far the largest industry worldwide, with 2 billion tourists and US$24 billion in domestic and international receipts. The major tourist destinations will be India, China, Indonesia and Brazil. New forms of tourism and tourist attractions will appears such space trips and resorts in space, underwater resorts, submarine cruises, resorts specializing in people with disabilities, fantasy islands, etc. The author envisions new modes of transportation and major changes in the present transportation industry. In his opinion, by the year 2050 there will be rocket travel, moving sidewalks in major cities and tourist zones, mega cruise ships (500010 000 passengers), high-speed trains, battery operated electric engines, cities with no parking zones, large airports connected with direct trains from the city center for air-travel where passengers check in their luggage.1

3. Guidelines for the hotel industry of the future Tourism has a bright future, and so does the hotel industry. The hotel of the future is dened by tourism guidelines, that is, the needs of the tourist of the 21st century. Who will be the consumer, the guest, and the tourist of tomorrow? New communication technologies will enable faster and easier business contacts without business trips, but the number of people traveling for leisure, pleasure and learning will increase signicantly. The hotel of the future will be a green hotel or an ecohotel. Everything, from the choice of the location, construction, equipment, hotel products and hotel services, will be subordinated to the preservation of nature and the environment, to manthe worker, and manthe guest. Nature hotels or eco-oasis will be a common phenomenon. Spa hotels will offer services related to the preservation of health, beauty (look good, feel better), physical and spiritual strength, such as the serving health food, offering various spiritual and physical exercises, and utilizing natural remedies and resources located in the hotels vicinity (i.e. mineral water springs, seas, lakes, rivers). These green and spa hotels will meet all the needs of the green tourist wave that will overow the world in the future. Tourists seeking adventure will go on board cruise hotels that will cruise the seas and outer space (space tourism). These cruise hotels will be equipped to provide the tourist with the pleasure of exploring the unknown. Space will become
The similarity between the visions of Pizam and the author of this paper conrms the presence of the globalization of scientic methodology and manner of thinking in the eld of tourism. Identical or similar results in thinking and researching increases the possibility that this vision can become reality, and serve as an orientation for the formulation of a strategy for tourism and hotel development in the future.
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the new tourist destination for humans, and maybe planet Earth will be the same for aliens. Travelers of the future will be easy going. They will not be necrophiliacs (lovers of inanimate objects) and lug their baggage around. This will be achieved through staying in home hotels, where travelers will nd everything they need, from clothing, shoes and other necessities, to beds, food and beverages, and new products and services. However, to entice people to leave their comfortable homes and stay in home hotel these properties will have to maintain a high degree of uniqueness and attractiveness. This means that they would need to be better than a typical home, offering good quality, unique ambiance and reasonable rates. Educational hotels will meet the growing desire of tourists to learn and acquire new skills required for frequent job changes, and fulllment of spiritual needs. Specially equipped, these hotels with offer the tourist of the future all that it pleasant and benecial to both body and spirit, ranging from playgrounds for children, to various cultural and educational programs for adults, and programs for the elderly and retired. Electronic transfer of knowledge and research results will replace todays conferences and symposia. Vacation hotels will be designed to meet the needs of elderly tourist as life spans increase. These hotels will offer comfort, tranquility, opportunities for socializing, mini-libraries, food and beverages adjusted to the special needs and requirements of seniors and special treatments and exercises for the body and spirit. Themed hotels (and themed restaurants) will emphasize the ethnic and/or regional uniqueness of the country, region or place. The tourist will nd there meals, entertainment and ambiance typical for the locality and distinguishable from other regions by culture, nature, inhabitants, customs, music, etc. Themed restaurants will usually offer typical local dishes where customer can actively participate in the selection and preparation of their meals, with all the associated sensory experiences. Catering and hotel products in the coming century will be characterized by a sophisticated synthesis of esthetics, quality and functionality. A balance between economy and ecology, as well as between esthetics and ethics will be sought. As far as the macro-organization of the future hotel industry is concerned, international hotel companies will continue to dominate the market, but small independent hotels will continue to exist and ourish. The micro-organization of the hotel will be based on the teamwork of interdisciplinary experts such as: nutritionists, economists, sociologists, psychologists, technologists, information technology experts, educators, entertainers, kinesiologists (experts who study the art and science of human movement and physical activity), physicians, designers, architects and other experts of emerging new elds. Considering the Management of Human Resources, employees will be the most important assets of hotels, therefore making education and training a permanent and continuing activity. Employees will be provided with childcare, elderly persons care, and alternative work arrangements. The number of employees per guestroom will be reduced due to automation in routine operations, employees participation in prot sharing, stock options and in decision making, team work, incentive pay and frequent promotion (Pizam, 1999).

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Considering the future of the hotel industry and tourist industry there will be two opposing trends: cheap hotels outside the cities and luxury hotels in resort areas where guest will be waited on hand and foot. There will be an increase in the number of themed hotels, and restaurants where the customer will design and supervise the preparation of the meals and select their preferred entertainment. Hotels will be built on Mars, the moon and on space stations. World Reservation Centers will enable guests to reserve and book their preferred lodging anywhere in the world. Most tourism enterprises and a great number of tourists will abide by uniform codes of practice for sustainable tourism. Countries will adopt standardized passports and uniform custom clearance practices. Todays travel agencies would cease to exist and transform themselves into travel consultants. Hotels will outsource some of their traditional functions such as accounting, security, engineering, etc. to independent contractors in order to decrease costs and increase productivity. All purchasing will be conducted electronically and direct with global vendors. Checkins and checkouts will be done electronically. Individual reservations will be conducted via World Reservation Centers, which will contain all the necessary information about guests and their needs and preferences. Customer satisfaction surveys will be simplied and automated. Robots will be used for housekeeping and the preparation of routine meals. To increase guest security and safety doors and safes will be operated by codes and employees behavior and access would be strictly controlled (Pizam, 1999).

4. Conclusion All of these predictions conrm that in the future the hotel business will concentrate on satisfying the guests needs, while at the same time humanizing the work place which will result in cost reduction and increased protability.

References
Avelini Holjevac, I., 2000. Kvaliteta kao strategija razvoja zdravstvenog turizma. In: Proceedings of the ! e, Thalassotherapia Opatija, Croatia, pp. 104112. Conference Zdravstveni turizam za 21. stoljec Pizam, A., 1999. Life and tourism in the year 2050. International Journal of Hospitality Management 18 (4), 331343. WTO, 1997. Tourism: 2020 Vision, Inuences, Directional Flows and Key Trends, Ececutive Summary. WTO, Madrid, Spain, p. 31. Ivanka Avelini Holjevac, Ph.D., is a Professor in the Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Opatija, Croatia. Her areas of interest are Controlling and Total Quality Management.