Chapter11

ProjectRiskManagement

(PMBOKGuide)
MohammadA.Rajabi D t of Dept. fGeomatics G ti Eng., E University U i it of fTehran T h Tel:+982188334341,Cell:+989121325823 Email:marajabi@ut.ac.ir marajabi@ut ac ir Homepage:http://www.marajabi.com

TableofContent

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Introduction
Theprocessofconductingriskmanagement planning,identification,analysis,response planning andmonitoringandcontrolonaproject planning, Objective:increasetheprobabilityandimpactof positiveevents,anddecreasetheprobabilityand impactofnegativeevents Planriskmanagement Identify Id tif risks ik Performqualitativeriskanalysis Performquantitativeriskanalysis Planriskresponses Monitorandcontrolrisks
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Introduction
Risk
Occursinfuture Anuncertaineventorcondition Mayeffect:scope,schedule,cost,performance,and quality Mayhaveoneormorecauses,oneormoreimpacts Arequirement, i t assumption, ti constraint, t i t orcondition diti createsthepossibilityofnegativeorpositive outcomes Limitedpersonnel,permitissue,limitedresources Contingencyplansshouldalwaysbethereasnotalof risks i k arek known! !
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Introduction
Risk s to tolerance e a ce Riskattitudesadoptedbypeoplearedrivenby perception, p p tolerances,andotherbiases Consistentapproachtoriskshouldbedeveloped, andcommunicationaboutriskanditshandling shouldbeopenandhonest Riskresponseshouldbeabalancebetweenrisk t ki and taking drisk i ktolerance t l Riskmanagementshouldbeproactiveand consistentthroughoutproject
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11.1PlanRiskManagement
Thep processofhowtoconductriskmanagement g activities Successoftheotherfiveriskmanagement processeswillbeenhancedbycarefulandexplicit planning Thedegree,typeandvisibilityofrisk managementshouldbecommensuratewithboth therisksandimportanceoftheproject Important I toprovide id sufficient ffi i resourcesand d timeforriskmanagementactivities,andrisk evaluation
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Inputs,Tools&Techniques, Outputs

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DataFlow

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Inputs
Projectscopestatement
Whattherisksareandhowsignificant g they yare

Costmanagementplan
Howriskbudgets,contingencies,andmanagement reserveswillbereportedandassessed

Schedulemanagementplan
Howschedulecontingencieswillbereportedassessed

Communicationsmanagementplan
Whotoshareinformationonvariousrisksandresponses atdifferenttimes

Enterpriseenvironmentalfactors
Riskattitudesandtolerances(thedegreeofriskthatan organizationwithstand)
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Input
Organizationalprocessassets
Riskcategories Commondefinitionsofconcepts p Riskstatementformats Standardtemplates p Rolesandresponsibilities Authoritylevelsfordecisionmaking Lessonslearned,and Stakeholderregisters
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ToolsandTechniques
Planningmeetingsandanalysis
Attendees
Projectmanager Selectedteammembersandstakeholders Anyonewithinorganizationinchargeofmanagingriskplanningan executingactivities

Highlevelplansaredefinedincludingriskmanagement costandschedule Risk kcontingencyreserveapplication l approaches h are establishedandreviewed Responsibilitiesareassigned Templatesforriskcategories,definitionoftermslikelevel ofrisk,probabilitybytypeofrisk,impactbytypeof objectives,andprobabilityandimpactmatrixwillbe t il dt tailored toth thespecific ifi project j t
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Outputs
Riskmanagementplan
Methodology(approaches,tools,anddatasourcestoperform riskmanagement) Rolesandresponsibilities(lead,support,andriskmanagement t team members, b and dtheir th i responsibilities) ibiliti ) Budgeting(assignresources,estimatesfunds,andestablishes protocolsofcontingencyreserve) Timing(whenandhowoftenshouldtheriskmanagement processshouldbeperformed,establishesprotocolsfor applicationofschedulecontingencyreserves,andestablishes riskmanagementactivitiestobeincludedintheproject schedule) Riskcategories(processofsystematicallyidentifyingrisks. Simplelist/structuresintoRiskBreakdownStructure(RBS))

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ExampleofRiskBreakdown Structure(RBS)

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Outputs
Definitionofriskprobabilityandimpact
Negativeperspective Positiveperspective

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DefinitionofImpactScalesforFour ProjectObjectives

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Outputs
Probabilityandimpactmatrix(risksareprioritized basedontheirpotentialimplications Revisedstakeholderstolerances Reportingformat(howtodocument,analyze,and communicatetheoutcomesoftherisk management tprocesses) ) Tracking(documentshowriskactivitiesare recordedforthebenefitofthecurrentproject, project as wellasforfutureneedsandlessonslearned,and howriskmanagementprocesseswillbeaudited
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11.2IdentifyRisks
Theprocessofdeterminingwhichrisksmayaffect theprojectanddocumentingtheircharacteristics Projectmanager manager, teammembers, members risk managementteam,customers,subjectmatter experts,endusers,otherprojectmanagers, stakeholders,andriskmanagementexperts shouldp participate p Iterativeprocess, frequencydependsonsituation

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Inputs,Tools&Techniques, Outputs

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Data Flow

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Inputs
Riskmanagementplan(rolesandresponsibilities,riskmanagement activitiesinbudgetandschedule, schedule riskcategories) Activitycostestimation(providesquantitativeassessmentofthe likelycosttocompletescheduledactivities) Activitydurationestimation(providesquantitativeassessmentof thelikelytimetocompletescheduledactivities) Scopebaseline(assumptionsmadeandtheiruncertainty,atboth microandmacrolevels) Stakeholderregister(forsolicitinginputsforidentifyingrisks) Costmanagementplan(maygenerateoralleviateriskbyitsnature orstructure) Schedule h d l managementplan l (may ( generateoralleviate ll risk kby b its natureorstructure) Qualitymanagementplan(maygenerateoralleviateriskbyits natureorstructure)
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Inputs
Projectdocuments
Assumptionslog Workperformancereports Earnedvaluereports Networkdiagrams Baselines,and O h project Other j i information f i proved dtobe b valuable l bl Publishedinformationincludingcommercialdatabases Academicchecklists Benchmarking Industrystudies,and Riskattitudes Projectfilesincludingactualdata Organizationalandprojectprocesscontrols Riskstatementtemplatesand Lessonslearned
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Enterpriseenvironmentalfactors

O Organizational i i lprocessassets

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ToolsandTechniques
Documentationreviews(plans,assumptions,previous projectfiles,contracts,andotherinformation Informationgatheringtechniques
Brainstorming g( (tog getcomprehensive p listofproject p j risksusing g multidisciplinaryexperts,andthecategorizingtheideas) Delphitechniques(questionnaire,anonymous,unbiased) Interviewing(experiencedprojectparticipants,stakeholders, andsubjectmatterexperts) Rootcauseanalysis(toidentifyproblem,discoverthe underlyingcause,developpreventionaction)

Ch Checklist kli analysis l i (b (based donhi historical i li information f i and d knowledge.ThelowestlevelofRBSisagoodpointtostart, shouldalwaysbereviewedtoincorporatenewlessons learned)
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ToolsandTechniques
Assumptionsanalysis(tocheckthevalidityofthe assumptions,theiraccuracy,instability,inconsistencyor incompletenessofthem) Diagrammingtechniques
Causeandeffectdiagrams(orIshikawa/fishbonediagrams) System/processflowcharts(showinghowvariouselementsofa systeminterrelate,andthemechanismofcausation) Influencediagrams(graphicalrepresentationsofsituation showingcasualinfluences,timeorderingofevents,andother relationshipsamongvariablesandoutcomes SWOTanalysis(Strength (Strength,Weakness Weakness,Opportunities, Opportunities Threats. Threats Strengthsshouldoffsetthreats,opportunitiesovercome weakness) Expertjudgment
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Outputs
Riskregister
Listofidentifiedrisks
Shouldbedescribedinasmuchdetailasisresaonable Structure:
EVENTmayoccur,causingIMPACTor IfCAUSE,EVENTmayoccur,leadingtoEFFECT

Therootcausesofrisksmaybecomeeveident

List Li of fpotential i lresponses

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11.3PerformQualitativeRisk Analysis
Theprocessofprioritizingrisksforfurther analysisoractionbyassessingandcombining theirprobabilityofoccurrenceandimpact Alsoassessingthetimeframeforresponse andtheorganization organizations srisktolerance associatedwiththeprojectconstraintsofcost, schedule scope schedule, scope,andquality

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Inputs,Tools&Techniques, Outputs

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DataFlow

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Inputs
Riskregister Riskmanagementplan
Roles R l and dresponsibilities ibiliti f forconducting d ti risk i kmanagement t Budgets Scheduleactivitiesforriskmanagement Riskcategories Definitionsofprobabilityandimpact,theprobabilityandimpact matrix,and Revisedstakeholders risktolerance

Projectscopestatement
Riskassociatedwithcommontypeprojectsversusprojectsusingfirst ofitskindtechnology,complex,stateofthearttools

Organizational O i i lprocessassets
Informationonprior,similarcompletedprojects Studiesofsimilarprojectsbyriskspecialities,and Riskdatabasesthatmaybeavailablefromindustryorpropreitry sources
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ToolsandTechniques
Riskprobabilityandimpactassessment
Impactonprojectsschedule,cost,quality,orperformance, includingbothnegativeeffectsforthreatsandpositiveeffects foropportunities

Probability P b bili and di impactmatrix i

Low,moderate, orhighpriority Canrateariskseparatelyforeachobjective(cost,time,and scope) ) Highriskswithnegativeimpacthaveprioritiesandneed aggressiveactions Lowriskswithnegativeimpactshouldbeaddedtowatchlist Highriskswithpositiveimpactshouldbetargetedfirst Lowriskswithpositiveimpactshouldbeaddedtowatchlist

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ProbabilityandImpactMatrix

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Dark gray: high risk Medium gray: low risk Light gray: moderate risk

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ToolsandTechniques
Riskdataqualityassessment
Accurateandunbiaseddataisrequired. required Accuracy, Accuracy quality quality, reliability,andintegrityofdataregardingriskshouldbe checked

Risk Ri kcategorization t i ti
UsingRBS,theareofprojectisaffected,projectphases

Riskurgencyassessment
Risksrequiringneartermresponses Timetoaffectariskassessment Symptomsandwarningsigns Riskrating

Expertjudgment
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Outputs
Riskregisterupdate
Riskrankingorprioritylistofprojectrisks
High,moderate,andlow Forschedule,cost,andperformance

Risks s sg grouped oupedbycatego categories es

Mayrevealcommonrootcauses

Causesofriskorprojectarearequiringparticularattention
Mayimprovetheeffectivenessofriskresponses

Listofrisksforadditionalresponseinthenearterm Listofrisksforadditionalanalysisandresponse Watchlists oflowpriorityrisks Trendsinqualitativeriskanalysisresults

Apparenttrendcanmakeriskresponsemore/less urgent/important

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11.4PerformQualitativeRisk Analysis
The ep process ocesso ofnumerically u e ca ya analyzing a y gt the ee effect ecto of identifiedrisksonoverallprojectobjectives performedonrisksthathavebeenp prioritized Isp bythePerformQualitativeRiskAnalysisprocess Presentsqualitativeapproachtomaking decisionsinthepresenceofuncertainty ShouldberepeatedafterPlanRiskResponsesas well llaspart tof fMonitor M it and dControl C t lto t determine d t i iftheoverallprojectriskhasbeensatisfactorily decreased
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Inputs,Tools&Techniques, Outputs

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DataFlow

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Inputs
Riskregister Riskmanagement g p plan Costmanagementplan
Setstheformatandestablishescriteriaforplanning,structuring, estimating,budgeting,andcontrollingprojectcosts Ithelpsdeterminethestructureand/or / applicationapproachfor quantitativeanalysisofthebudgetorcostplan

Schedulemanagementplan
Setstheformatandestablishescriteriafordeveloping, developing andcontrolling projectschedule Ithelpsdeterminethestructureand/orapplicationapproachfor quantitativeanalysisoftheschedule

Organizationalprocessassets
Informationonprior,similarcompletedprojects Studiesofsimilarprojectsbyriskspecialists,and Risk kdatabases d b that h maybe b available l bl from f industry d orproprietary sources
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Datagatheringandrepresentationtechniques
Interviewing Probabilitydistributions

ToolsandTechniques

Quantitativeriskanalysisandmodelingtechniques
Sensitivityanalysis ExpectedMonetaryValue(EMV)analysis
Analysisunderuncertainty Statisticalconceptthatcalculatestheaverageoutcomewhenthefutureincludes scenariosthatmayormaynothappen Opportunities> positivevalues,threats>negativevalues EMV:multiplyingthevalueofeachpossibleoutcomebyitspossibilityofoccurrenceand addingproductstogether Commonuse: decisiontreeanalysis

Modelingandsimulation

ExpertJudgment
Toidentifypotentialcostandscheduleimpacts,toevaluateprobability,andto defineinputsintothetools Interpretationofthedata Identifytheweaknessofthetools,theirrelativestrengths Whenandwhichtoolismoreappropriategiventheorganizationscapabilities andculture

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RangeofProjectCostEstimates CollectedDuringtheRiskInterview

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ExamplesofCommonlyUsed ProbabilityDistributions

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DecisionTreeDiagram

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CostRiskSimulationResults

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Outputs
Riskregisterupdates Probabilisticanalysisoftheproject Probability b bili of fachieving hi i costand dtime i objectives Prioritizedlistofquantifiedrisks Trendsinq quantitativeriskanalysis y results

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11.5PlanRiskResponses
Theprocessesofdevelopingoptionsandactionsto enhanceopportunitiesandtoreducethreatstoproject objectives FollowsQualitativeRiskAnalysisandPerform Qualitative li i Risk i kAnalysis l i processes,identifies id ifi and d assignspeopletotakeresponsibilityforriskresponses. priorities insertingresources Addressesrisksbasedonpriorities, andactivitiesintobudget,schedule,andproject managementplan Shouldbeappropriatetothesignificanceoftherisk, costeffective,realistic,agreedbyallparties,timely, andownedbyaresponsibleperson
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Inputs,Tools&Techniques, Outputs

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DataFlow

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Inputs
Riskregister
Identified Id tifi drisks, i k Root R tcausesof frisks, i k Lists Li t of f potentialresponses,Riskowners,Symptoms, Warningsigns signs,Relativerating/prioritylist, list Listof riskswithneartermresponse,Trendsin qualitativeanalysis q y results,Watchlist oflow priorityrisks

Riskmanagement g p plan
Rolesandresponsibilities,riskanalysisdefinitions, timingforreviews,riskthresholdsforlow, moderate,andhighrisks
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ToolsandTechniques q
Riskanalysistoolssuchastreeanalysiscanbeusedtochoosethemost appropriateresponses Mixedresponsesaremostlikelytobeeffective Strategiesfornegativerisksorthreats
Avoid(extendingschedule,reducingscope,shuttingdowntheproject) Transfer(financialriskexposure,insurance,warranties,guarantees) Mitigate(takingearlyactions, actions adoptinglesscomplexprocesses, processes conduction moretests,choosingmorestablesuppliers,prototyping,redundancy) Accept(Passiveacceptance:noactionexcepttodocumentthestrategyand leaveittotheprojectteamtodealwithit.Activeacceptance:establishing contingencyreserveformoney money,time, time andresources)

Strategiesforpositiverisksoropportunities
Exploit(seekingtoeliminatetheuncertaintyassociatedwithaparticular upsideriskbyensuringtheopportunitydefinitelyhappens.Suchasrewardsto shortertimetocomplete, complete lowerthecost) Share(allocatingsomeoralloftheownershipoftheopportunitytoathird partywhoisabletocapturetheopportunityforthebenefitoftheproject. Suchasjointventures,specialpurposecompanies) Enhance(suchasaddingmoreresourcestofinishearly) Accept(notactivelypursuingit)

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Tools&Techniques
ContingentResponseStrategies(tobe executedundercertainpredefinedconditions suchasmissingintermediatemilestones milestones, gaininghighprioritywithasupplier) ExpertJudgment(forspecificanddefinedrisk)

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Outputs
Riskregisterupdates
Appropriateresponsesarechosen,agreedupon,andincludedintheriskregister Levelofdetailcorrespondswiththepriorityrankingandtheplannedresponses(highand moderaterisksusuallyindetail) Indentifiedrisks,theirdescriptions,areasoftheproject(WBS)affected,theircauses(RBS), andhowtheymayaffectprojectobjectives Riskownersandassignedresponsibilities OutputsfromthePerformqualitativeAnalysisprocess,includingprioritizedlistsofproject risks Agreeduponresponsestrategies Specificactionstoimplementthechosenresponsestrategy Triggers, Triggers symptoms symptoms,andwarningsignsofrisks risks occurrence Budgetandscheduleactivitiesrequiredtoimplementthechosenresponses Budgetandscheduleactivitiesrequiredtoimplementthechosenresponses Contingencyplansandtriggersthatcalltheirexecution Fallbackplansforuseasareactiontoariskthathasoccurredandtheprimaryresponsetobe inadequate Residualrisksthatareexpectedtoremainafterplannedresponseshavebeentakenaswellas thosethathavebeendeliberatelyaccepted Secondaryrisksariseasadirectoutcomeofimplementingariskresponse,and Contingencyreservesthatarecalculatedbasedonthequantitativeriskanalysisoftheproject andtheorganizationsriskthresholds
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Outputs
Riskrelatedcontractdecisions
Insurance,servicesformitigatingortransferringpartorallofthethreator enhancingorsharingpartoralloftheopportunity UsuallyareinputstothePlanProcurements

Projectmanagementplanupdates
Schedulemanagementplan
Changestotoleranceorbehaviourrelatedtoresourcesloadingandlevelling,and schedule

Costmanagementplan
Changesintoleranceorbehaviourrelatedtocostaccounting,tracking,andreports,as wellasupdatestothebudgetandtheconsumptionofcontingencyreserves

Qualitymanagementplan
Ch Changesin i tolerance t l orbehaviour b h i related l t dto t requirements, i t quality lit assurance,quality lit control,aswellasupdatestotherequirementsdocumentation

Procurementmanagementplan
Changesintoleranceorbehaviourrelatedtostrategyofmakebuydecisionsorcontract types

Humanresourcemanagementplan
Changesintoleranceorbehaviourrelatedtoorganizationalstructure,resource applications,toleranceorbehaviourrelatedtostaffallocation,aswellasupdatestothe resourceloading

Work kbreakdown b k structure Schedulebaseline Costperformancebaseline Guide toPMBOK

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Outputs
Projectdocumentupdates
Assumptionlogupdates
Maybeincorporatedinthescopestatementorina separateassumptionslog

Technicaldocumentationupdates p
Technicalapproachesand/orphysicaldeliverablesmay change

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11.6MonitorandControlRisks
Theprocessofimplementingriskresponseplans,trackingidentifiedrisks, monitoringresidualrisks,identifyingnewrisks,andevaluatingriskprocess effectivenessthroughouttheproject Projectworkshouldbecontinuouslymonitoredfornew new,changing changing,and outdatedrisks Techniquessuchasvarianceandtrendanalysis Purposes:
Projectassumptionsstillvalid Ifassessedriskhaschangedorcanberetired Riskmanagementpolicies/proceduresarefollowed Contingencyreservesofcost/scheduleshouldbemodifiedinalignmentwith thecurrentriskassessment

Caninvolvechoosingalternativestrategies,executingacontingencyor fallbackplan,takingcorrectiveaction,andmodifyingtheproject managementplan RiskresponseownerreportsperiodicallytoPMontheeffectivenessofthe plan,anyunanticipatedeffects,anycorrectionneededtohandletherisk appropriately Includeupdatingtheorganizationalprocessassets,lessonslearned databases,riskmanagementtemplates

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DataFlow

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 RiskRegister

Inputs

Indentifiedrisksandriskowners,agreeduponriskresponses, specificimplementationactions actions,symptomsandwarningsignsof risk,residualandsecondaryrisks,watchlist oflowpriorityrisks, andtimeandcostcontingencyreserves

Project j management g p plan

Risktolerances,protocols,riskowners,time,andother resourcestoprojectriskmanagement

Workp performanceinformation
Deliverablestatus Scheduleprogress,and Costsincurred

Performancereport
Varianceanalysis Earnedvaluedata, data and Forecastingdata
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ToolsandTechniques
RiskAssessment Shouldbedoneregularly
Identificationofnewrisks Reassessmentofcurrentrisks Closingoutdatedrisks

Riskaudits
Examininganddocumentingtheeffectivenessofrisk responsesindealingwithidentifiedrisks.Theirroot causes,and dthe th risk i kmanagement tprocess PMshouldmakesureitisdoneregularly Shouldhaveclearformatandobjectives j
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Tools&Techniques q
Varianceandtrendanalysis
Checkingplannedresultstotheactualresults Earnedvalueanalysisandothermethodsofprojectvarianceandtrend analysiscanbeused Outcome:forecastpotentialdeviationoftheprojectatcompletionfrom cost/scheduletargets

Technicalp performancemeasurement
Checkingplannedresultstotheactualresults Metricsshouldbedefined.Suchasweight,transactiontimes,numbersof delivereddefects,storagecapacity

Reserveanalysis
Comparestheamountofremainedcontingencyreservestotheamountof remainingrisks

Statusmeetings
Agendainperiodicmeetings Dependingontheamountofidentifiedrisks,theirpriority,anddifficultyof responsetherequiredtimeformeetingvaries Riskmanagement g becomeseasierthemoreoftenitisp practiced Themorewetalkaboutit,themorelikelypeopleidentifyrisksand opportunities

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 Risk i kregister i updates d

Outputs

Outcomeofriskassessments,riskaudits,andperiodicriskreviews whichcanbe:
Newidentifiedrisks,updatestoprobability,impact,priority,responseplans, ownership,andotherelementsoftheriskregister Closedrisksandreleasedassociatedreserves

Actualoutcomesoftheprojectsrisksandriskresponses

Organizational O i ti lprocessassets t updates d t

Templatefortheriskmanagementplanincludingtheprobabilityand impactmatrix,andriskregister RBS Lessonslearnedfromtheprojectmanagementactivities

Changerequests
Recommendedcorrectiveactions
Contingencyplansandworkarounds(notplannedresponsestounidentifiedor acceptedpassiverisks)

Recommendedpreventionactions

Projectmanagementplanupdates Projectdocumentupdates
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