SAFETY AND

SECURITY STRATEGY

September 3, 2009
Violence Involving CPS Students Unacceptable

CPS Students Shooting

By Time and Location

80% 100%
Outside Outside of
School Schools
Hrs.
500+ Shooting Incidents Over Two Years
 Analysis Led To 3 Key Areas:

Identify
Students at
Risk of
Becoming Creating a
Victims of School
Violence Culture of Creating a
Calm Safe
Passage to
and from
School
 Identify
Students at
Risk of
Becoming Creating a
Victims of School
Violence Culture of Creating a
Calm Safe
Passage to
and from
School
CPS Shooting Victim Study
80+% of shootings occur during times
outside of CPS' control
All shootings occurred outside of school
BUT, there is a very predictable pattern of
victims; most had a common set of risk
factors
These risk factors are identifiable using
basic CPS data
It is possible to identify students that
have a high probability of falling victim
Uncontrollable Risk Factors
African American and Hispanic males are at a
higher risk of becoming shooting victims

Gender Race
% within group % within group
1 4
Female 9 Other
19 9 White
51
36 Hispanic

91
80
49 African
Male 51 American

Victims Total HS Victims Total HS

Population Population
“More Controllable” Risk Factors
Victims attending school
School Type
1 % within School Type
11
10
13 LEGEND
2
6 Selective
10 Magnet
27 9
5 Military

Career Academy

Charter

Alternative
55 58
Neighborhood

Victims Total HS
Population
Probability Of Being A Gun Violence Victim*
Risk of # of
Being Current
Group Shot Students Interpretation

Ultra Model predicts that ~200

High 20+% ~200 students have a greater than
Risk 20% chance

Very Model predicts that ~1,000

High 7.5 - 20% ~1,000 students have a 7.5 to 20%
Risk chance

High Model predicts that ~8,500

1 - 7.5% ~8,500 students have a 1 to 7.5%
Risk
chance

Model predicts that ~100,000

Lower Minimal ~100,000
students have minimal chance
Risk
<1%

* Over the next 2 years

“More Controllable” Risk Factors
Analysis reveals ability to predict victims
Academic In-school
Performance Attendance Behavior
% of students Avg. % of days absent1 Avg. # of 4-6 incidents
>2 credits "off track"2 Per 100 days of school

53 16
.57
9 42 .07
Victims Total HS Victims Total HS Victims Total HS
Population Population Population

Special Homeless
Education
24 7
Percent
Percent

16 5

Victims Total HS Victims Total HS

population population
Intervening With At Risk Students
Student assigned community-based
advocate/mentor and placed into a job

Advocate is on call 24-7 and is required to

spend 16+ hours a week with their assigned
students

Advocate works with the student’s family and

links them to assistance and support services

Students routinely assessed by social workers

and counselors to monitor progress and needs
 Identify
Students at
Risk of
Becoming Creating a
Victims of School
Violence Culture of Creating a
Calm Safe
Passage to
and from
School
Creating a Culture of Calm in Schools
Develop a school safety score and analyze
performance across schools
About 70% of schools' variation in safety
performance is outside principal's control -
based on environmental risk factors
30% is within a principal's control
A different safety philosophy exists for schools
that are performing well
Outperforming schools tend to favor mental
health and prevention whereas underperforming
schools favor policing and punishment/discipline
 Victims Attended 89 High Schools
30 25% of CPS High Schools experienced
28
80% of the total homicide and aggravated
26
24 battery incidents
Total incidents

22
20
18
16
14
12
Homicides
10
8
Aggravated Batteries
6
4
2
0
89
38 schools compose # HS
~80% of total incidents
Calculating The School Safety Index
40%Safe Climate Index
40% Serious Misconduct Index
20% Victim Index

ABSOLUTE EXPECTED
VALUE ADD
SAFETY SAFETY
SAFETY SCORE
SCORE SCORE

Environmental circumstances
outside the school’s control
(prevalence of IEP students, crime
rates where students live, and
school type)
“Safety Value Add”
Estimates impact of every school’s safety and
security practices

Absolute Expected Safety

School
Safety Score Safety Score Value Add “Safety Value Add” calculation
High School 1 80 69 12
Absolute Safety Score
High School 2 36 53 -17
- Expected Safety Score
= Safety Value Add
(distance from expectation line)
120
High School
Example: High School 1
100
1 = (11)
Absolute Safety Score: 80
80 Expected Score: 69
Safety Score

Value Add: 80-69 =

y = x + 5E-13
60 R2 = 0.6945
11
Example: High School 2
40

High School Absolute Safety Score: 36

20
2 – (-17) Expected Score: 53
Value Add: 36-53=
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 -17
Expected Safety Score
All Schools Would Like More Professional Help
Underperformer have up to 15% fewer
counselors and social workers per student

2.0

14%
1.0

4.0
12%
0.0

Social Workers*
2.0

0.0

Outperforming Counselors*
Underperforming

* Professionals Per Thousand Students

Do Underperformers Over Rely On Police?

% of Time Misconduct Reported to the Police

15% 29%
22% 44%
63% 27% 81%
24%
173%

38 62 14 37 49 63 37 67 68 78 50 38 54 66 61 78 54 77
Display of Fighting Fight Theft Theft False Poss. Of Poss. Of Poss. Of
Gang without With < $500 > $500 Alarm Alcohol Drugs Weapon
Affiliation injury Injury Pull

Underperforming Outperforming
Outperformers Allocate More To Safety/Security
Underperformers spend more safety $s on
personnel and less on programs, equipment
and training
Annual safety $s per student Percent Allocation of
Safety and Security $s
82%
$501
35% 62%
Outperforming
Underperforming
$328

13% 12%
7% 4% 1% 3%
Outperforming Underperforming Personnel Equipment Training Programs
Schools Schools
Discipline
More severe discipline is used at
underperforming schools for student misconduct

Fighting without a weapon

1st Violation
Percent

15%
20 20 23 15 Repeat Violation
0 80 85 0
Warn, Short Long Expel
Percent
Detention, Suspend suspend 246%
In-school
Suspend
27 8 80 92 7 23 7 0
Short Long Expel Other
Suspend Suspend
Parent Participation
Less participation in parent-teacher
conferences reported by underperformers
Average % of participating Parents
76-100%

51-75%
17%

26-50%

0-25%
Participated in parent-teacher conferences

Outperforming Underperforming
Creating A Culture Of Calm
School culture action plans for 38 high schools
Increased staffing of social workers and
counselors
Enhanced training and hiring standards for
school security guards
Overhauling expulsion and disciplinary
processes to include parent/guardian
engagement
Social and emotional learning programs
instituted at the 38 focus high schools
 Identify
Students at
Risk of
Becoming Creating a
Victims of School
Violence Culture of Creating a
Calm Safe
Passage to
and from
School
Safe Passage Is Key To Success
Feeling “Safe“ precursor to academic success
EXTRACURRICULAR
ATTENDANCE PARTICIPATION
% of students Participating in
ACADEMIC
Avg. % of days absent Extracurricular Activities
PERFORMANCE

18 % Students Making 100

Expected Gains
15 14 14 100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
Not safe Somewh Mostly Very safe
at safe safe
20
0
"Somewhat safe" "Mostly safe"
0
"Somewhat safe" "Mostly safe"
Safe Passage Analysis
Students surveyed to determine their
feeling of safety

Students Selecting
"Not Safe" or
"Somewhat Not Safe"

50% or More
35% or More
Less Than 35%
Hotspots Driven By Gang Boundaries
High School at intersection of 3 gang territories

High School

Students living in
Gang A territory feel Gang A
unsafe crossing into Gang B
Gang B territory Gang C

"Not safe" to
"somewhat safe"

"Somewhat safe
to mostly safe"
"Mostly safe" to
"very safe"
Note: Gang boundaries based on Chicago Crime Commission "The Gang Book" (2006)
Safe Passage At All High Schools
School by school review using gang
boundaries and student survey
information to plan community based
safe passage strategies

Bus service in areas where students feel

“unsafe”

Boosting parental, community and police

involvement in focus areas