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Technical Analysis
12 Nov 2009
TRAINING
TECHNICAL ANALISIS
Bagian Pertama
1. Introduction (TA)
2. Fundamental Vs TA
3. Dasar Analisa Teknis
4. Theory Dow
5. Three Past of Market
6. Trend & penggunaannya
7. Accumulation, Distribustion & Mark-up
TRAINING
TECHNICAL ANALISIS
Bagian Kedua
8. Support & Resisten & Combine
9. Channel
10. Bilangan Fibonacci
11. Retracement
12. One day trading
13. Pattern ( Reversal )
14. Pattern (Consolidate)
TRAINING
TECHNICAL ANALISIS
1. Cash Price
2. Short Term Interest Rate
3. Holding and Storage cost
4. Capital Gain/Capital Loss
5. Volatility Market
6. Market Sentimen
7. Composition Index
TRAINING
TECHNICAL ANALISIS
TRAINING
TECHNICAL ANALISIS
Awalnya.
Dana Investasi
cukup
Rajin mencari
informasi.
Salah mendeteksi
saham.
Akibatnya.
INTRODUCTION
Technical Analysis hingga kini digunakan
sebagian orang sebagai salah satu
tools didalam berinvestasi.
Baik pada saham, indeks, komoditi
maupun mata uang tertentu. Berbagai
investasi pada pasar uang dan pasar
modal tak terelakkan untuk tidak
menggunakan tools tersebut
INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
Analisa teknis merupakan satu tools
yang dapat digunakan untuk melihat
Fundamental
V
S
REALITY
Technical
Historical Price
Pattern
Indicator
Trading System
Short
Term
Introduction Technical
Analysis
Salah satu tools investasi
Chart ( Historical Price )
Kebutuhan software
Chartist dapat mendeteksi kondisi yang telah
terjadi dan tengah terjadi pada saat itu.
Sehingga user dapat memprediksikan kemana
arah pergerakkan selanjutnya.
prediksi
ANALOGY TREND
Analogy Positif ( Uptrend ) IPO
Analogi Negatif ( Downtrend )
News/Rumors
Theory Dow
Market action, repeat
16500
16000
15500
15000
14500
14000
13500
13000
12500
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
15000
10000
5000
x100000
2000 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
T
T T
U
T
T
U
T
U
U
Volume (0.00000)
40000
40000
30000
30000
20000
20000
10000
10000
x100000
x100000
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Starting Point
Komponen Chart
Type Chart
Line chart
Bar Chart
Candle chart
Type Chart
Line Chart
9900
9800
9700
9600
9500
9400
9300
9200
9100
9000
8900
8800
8700
8600
8500
8400
8300
8200
8100
8000
7900
7800
7700
7600
b.
a.
7500
1 7
August
14 22 28
4
11 18
September
25
2
9
October
16
30 6
13
November
20
27
4
D
TYPE CHART
BAR CHART
Close & High
BAR CHART
17500
d.
17000
16500
Open
16000
Low
15500
15000
14500
c.
926 4 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 6 13 2027 3 10 17 24 1 15 22 29 5 1219 26 3 10 182
2006
February March
April
May
June
July
Type Chart
Point & Figur Chart
Point & Figur Chart
f.
e.
Type Chart
Point & Figur Chart
f.
Type Chart
Candlestick Chart
Candlestick Chart
AALI (0.0, 10,450.00, 10,300.00, 10,300.00, -150.000)
h.
g.
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
1
7
August
14 22
28
4
11
September
18
25
2
9
October
16
30
6
13
November
20
27
4
D
Type Chart
Candlestick Chart
Time Choice
Time Choice
Daily Chart
37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
10000
10000
5000
5000
x1000
x1000
10
h
16
23
30
6
April
13
20
27
4
May
11
18
25
1
8
June
15
22
29
6
July
13
21
27
3
10
August
18
24
31
7
14
September
28
5
12
October
19
26
2
9
16
November
23
Time Choice
Weekly Chart
ASII (30,450.00, 31,650.00, 30,100.00, 31,600.00, +1,250.00), Parabolic SAR (34,975.28)
37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
10000
10000
5000
5000
x10000
x10000
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2010
Time Choice
Monthly Chart
ASII (30,500.00, 31,650.00, 29,750.00, 31,600.00, +300.000), Parabolic SAR (15,808.21)
35000
35000
30000
30000
25000
25000
20000
20000
15000
15000
10000
10000
5000
5000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
x10000
x10000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Trending
Primary Trend 1thn 3thn
Intermediate Trend 6 bln
1thn
Short (minor) Trend 5hr 6bln
Akumulasi, Mark-Up
Distribusi
Primary
Trend
Intermediate
trend
Minor trend
UPTREND
H ig h v o la tility
L o w v o la tility
S ID E W A Y S
H ig h v o la tility
L o w v o la tility
DOW NTREND
H ig h v o la tility
37000
37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
1. PRIMARY TREND
2. INTERMEDIATE TREND
3. MINOR TREND
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
36000
35000
34000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
8000
7000
6000
5000
6000
5000
Oct
Nov
Dec
2008
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
Accumulation &
Distribution
Trend lines
Trend lines
Uptrend
Downtrend
Trend lines
Downtrend
6500
6000
5500
Uptrend
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
Uptrend
2000
1500
Volume (14,260,000)
50000
x1000
May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul Aug
Sep Oct
Nov Dec
2005
Mar
Analisa Subyektif
Horizontal Support
and Resisten Line
TLKM (8,700.00, 8,700.00, 8,600.00, 8,650.00, -50.0000)
13000
12500
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
Volume (11,219,000)
15000
10000
5000
x10000
2007 Nov
Dec
2008
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Perubahan Support
Resisten Support
Support Resisten
Dibentuk dr Trend Line
Support Resisten
& Trend Line
N
b
1500
1500
a
1000
1000
COMBINASI SUPPORT LINE & RESISTEN
& TREND LINES
_
`
500
500
^
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Support Resisten
IHSG (1,148, 1,160, 1,146, 1,158)
1200
Resisten
1200
1150
1150
1100
1100
1050
Resisten
Support
1000
1050
1000
950
950
900
900
850
850
800
Resisten
800
Resisten
750
750
700
700
Support
650
600
Resisten
550
500
650
600
R Support
550
500
Support
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
Support
Support
300
250
250
200
200
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Contoh Support
Resisten & Channel
Kombinasi
Sup-Res dengan Channel
Channel Lines
Channel Lines
Channel Lines
Channel Line
Pada Saham PGAS
PGAS (11,000.00, 11,150.00, 10,950.00, 10,950.00, -50.0000)
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
2006 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct Nov
Dec
Reversal Trend
Pola reversal dapat
diidentifikasikan
dengan garis trend
(naik/turun), baik
jk pendek,
menengah /
panjang dan dapat
dilihat dari garis
moving averages.
Reversal Trend
Pada Nikkei
18500
18000
17500
17000
16500
16000
15500
15000
14500
14000
13500
13000
12500
September
November December
2006
February
March
April
May
June
July
Reversal Trend
BBCA (2,525, 2,550, 2,500, 2,525)
REVERSAL or CONTINUE
N
[
SELL
August
September
October
November
December
2003
February
March
April
May
2650
2600
2550
2500
2450
2400
2350
2300
2250
2200
2150
2100
2050
2000
1950
1900
1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
Reversal Trend
Reversal Trend
Sup-Res, Trend, MA
Resisten
Support
ANALISA DGN
PIVOT POINT
Analisa ini digunakan untuk trading jangka pendek dan
dibantu support & resisten harian yang diformulasikan.
Beberapa hal yang perlu diketahui dari pivot point
Pivot point memiliki dua buah support dan dua buah resisten
Pivot point digunakan sebagian besar untuk jangka pendek.
Pivot point mampu melihat kadar penguatan atau penurunan
dengan bantuan kedua support dan resisten.
Pivot point dapat dikombinasikan dengan penggunaan MA.
Mengkombinasikan pivot point dengan volume dianjurkan.
ANALISA DGN
PIVOT POINT
Resisten 2
Resisten 1
Pivot Point
Support 2
Support 1
S1 = ( 2 x P ) H1
S2 = P (H1 L1)
Dimana :
P = Pivot point
H1 = high previus
L1 = Low Previus
C1 = Close Previus
ANALISA DGN
PIVOT POINT
3600
Pivot point
3500
SI
3400
S II
3300
R1
3200
R2
3100
1
ANALISA DGN
PIVOT POINT
DATA PADA PIVOT POINT
Date
Open
High
3/4/2003
3575
3575
3/5/2003
3450
3475
3/6/2003
3400
3425
3/7/2003
3400
3425
3/10/2003
3375
3375
3/11/2003
3225
3225
3/12/2003
3250
3425
3/13/2003
3400
3400
Low
Close
3475
3475
3375
3400
3375
3425
3350
3375
3250
3250
3150
3225
3250
3400
3275
3325
Pivot
point
SI
S II
R1
R2
3,508.3
3,416.7
3,408.3
3,383.3
3,291.7
3,200.0
3,358.3
3,441.7
3,358.3
3,391.7
3,341.7
3,208.3
3,175.0
3,291.7
3,408.3
3,316.7
3,358.3
3,308.3
3,166.7
3,125.0
3,183.3
3,541.7
3,458.3
3,441.7
3,416.7
3,333.3
3,250.0
3,466.7
3,608.3
3,516.7
3,458.3
3,458.3
3,416.7
3,275.0
3,533.3
ANALISA DGN
PIVOT POINT
4700
C lose
P ivot point
SI
S II
R1
R2
3700
4/29/2003
4/15/2003
4/1/2003
3/18/2003
3/4/2003
2700
Fibonacci
Fibonacci merupakan angka unik dan dalam
TA dijadikan landasan untuk melihat titik
balik, seperti Fibonacci Retracement &
Fibonaci Fan Lines
Formula Fibonaci ini banyak
Seperti :
dipergunakan dalam
1+2=3
perhitungan TA seperti
2+3=5
Fibonacci Retracement dan
3+5=8
Elliot Wave
5 + 8 =13
8 + 13=21,
Sehingga kalau dilihat : 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,dst
Retracement Level
Retracement Level adalah
Metode atau tools yang dapat
mengindikasikan titik balik
pada suatu saham pada trend
naik / turun
BASIC Technical
Analysis
38 %
16000
15000
50 %
62 %
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
x1000
rch
April
May
June
July
August
September
November
2009
February March
April
May
June
July
August
September
Novemb
Fibonacci Retracement
ASII (30,450.00, 31,650.00, 30,100.00, 31,600.00, +1,250.00)
37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
23.6%
23.6%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
38.2%
38.2%
100.0%
50.0%
50.0%
61.8%
61.8%
161.8%
100.0%
261.8%
100.0%
FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT
423.6%
161.8%
161.8%
Volume (5,376,000)
30000
37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
30000
25000
25000
20000
20000
15000
15000
10000
10000
5000
5000
x1000
x1000
arch April
May
June
July
August September
November
2009
FebruaryMarch April
May
June
July
August September
Novem
Fibonacci Retracement
37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1/3
23.6%
23.6%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
38.2%
38.2%
100.0%
50.0%
50.0%
61.8%
61.8%
161.8%
100.0%
261.8%
100.0%
2/3
FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT
423.6%
161.8%
161.8%
Volume (5,376,000)
30000
37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
30000
25000
25000
20000
20000
15000
15000
10000
10000
5000
5000
x1000
x1000
arch April
May
June
July
August September
November
2009
FebruaryMarch April
May
June
July
August September
Novem
CHART PATTERN
Trading Pattern
1. Gapping / Windows
2. Candlestick chart
3450
a
b
3400
3350
3300
3250
3200
3150
3100
3050
3000
2950
2900
2850
2800
2750
2700
2650
2600
2550
2500
2450
2400
2350
2300
2250
2200
2150
13
21
27
3
August
10
18
24
31
7
September
14
28
5
October
12
19
26
2
9
November
16
23
3450
3400
3350
COMMON GAP
3300
3250
3200
3150
3100
3050
3000
2950
2900
2850
2800
2750
COMMON GAP
2700
2650
2600
2550
20000
15000
10000
5000
x10000
27
3
August
10
18
24
31
7
September
14
28
5
October
12
19
26
2
November
5500
5000
4500
4000
6
March
13
20
27
3
April
11
17
24
1
May
15
22
Common Gap
3450
3400
3350
COMMON GAP
3300
3250
3200
3150
3100
3050
3000
2950
2900
2850
2800
2750
COMMON GAP
2700
2650
2600
2550
20000
15000
10000
5000
x10000
27
3
August
10
18
24
31
7
September
14
28
5
October
12
19
26
2
November
Common Gap
5500
5000
4500
4000
6
March
13
20
27
3
April
11
17
24
1
May
15
22
Breakaway &
Continuation Gap
ISAT (8,900, 8,950, 8,800, 8,900)
breakaway gap
9500
9500
9000
9000
8500
8500
8000
8000
Bearish
Breakaway
gap
7500
7000
7500
7000
Continuation Gap
6500
23
30
7
October
14
21
28
4
11
November
6500
18
25
2
16
December
23 2
2003
Exhaustion Gap
Exhaustion Gap
Exhaustion Gap
1800
1800
1750
1750
1700
1700
1650
1650
1600
1600
1550
1550
1500
1500
1450
1450
1400
1400
1350
1350
1300
1300
1250
1250
1200
1200
1150
1150
1100
1100
1050
1050
1000
1000
950
950
900
900
850
850
ctober
November
December 2003
February
March
April
May
Day Trading
(Candle)
Day Trading
(Candle)
Day Trading
(Candle)
Day Trading
(Candle)
Reversal
Pattern
Head and Shoulder
Inverted Head and Shoulder
Triple Tops and Triple Bottoms
Double Tops / Double Bottoms
Source or Rounding Bottoms / Tops
V Formation / Spikes
Continuation
Pattern
Triangle
Wedges
Rectangle Formation
Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder
h
LS
rS
rS
LS
h
Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder
BBRI (7,450.00, 7,500.00, 7,250.00, 7,450.00, +0.0)
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
5500
Volume (16,841,500)
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
x1000
4
ay
11
18
25
1
June
15
22
29
6
July
13
21
27
3
10
August
18
24
31
7
September
14
28
5
October
12
19
26
2
9
November
16
23
Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder
TLKM (11,900.00, 12,050.00, 11,550.00, 11,550.00, -350.000)
13000
12500
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
mber
2007
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
Nove
Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder
11800
11700
11600
11500
11400
11300
11200
11100
11000
10900
10800
10700
10600
10500
10400
10300
10200
10100
10000
30000
20000
10000
x100000
ber October
November
December
2006
February
March
April
May
June
July
Au
Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder
Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder
Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder
HMSP (3,475, 3,775, 3,475, 3,550)
5000
5000
4500
4500
4000
4000
3500
3500
3000
3000
2500
2500
2000
2000
Volume (28,929,500)
10000
10000
5000
5000
x10000
x10000
001
M J
2002
2003
M A
Reversal Pattern
Head and Shoulder
Double Bottoms
Double Bottoms
3550
3500
3450
3400
3350
3300
DOUBLE TOPS
3250
3200
3150
3100
3050
3000
2950
2900
2850
2800
2750
2700
2650
2600
2550
2500
15
22
29
6
July
13
21
27
3
10
August
18
24
31
7
September
14
28
5
October
12
19
26
2
9
November
16
23
Double Bottoms
Rounding Bottoms
Rounding Bottoms
PNBN (770.000, 770.000, 770.000, 770.000, +0.00)
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
x10000
2008
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Rounding Bottoms
15900
15800
15700
15600
15500
15400
15300
15200
15100
15000
14900
14800
14700
14600
14500
14400
14300
14200
14100
14000
13900
13800
13700
13600
13500
13400
13300
13200
ary
April
May
June
July
August
September
15900
15800
15700
15600
15500
15400
15300
15200
15100
15000
14900
14800
14700
14600
14500
14400
14300
14200
14100
14000
13900
13800
13700
13600
13500
13400
13300
13200
15500
15000
14500
14000
13500
SPIKES PATTERN
13000
12500
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2006
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Triangle
Ascending Triangle
Descending Triangle
Triangle Pattern
5500
5000
4500
SYMETRICAL TRIANGLE
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
0500
0000
9500
9000
8500
8000
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec 2006Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep OctNov
Triangle Pattern
24500
24000
18
24
31
7
September
14
28
5
October
12
19
26
2
November
16
23
Triangle Pattern
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
50000
Volume (21,785,000)
40000
30000
20000
10000
x10000
4
ay
11
18
25
1
June
15
22
29
6
July
13
21
27
3
10
August
18
24
31
7
September
14
28
5
October
12
19
26
2
9
November
16
23
Triangle Pattern
ADRO (1,550.00, 1,560.00, 1,530.00, 1,540.00, +0.00)
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
50000
Volume (21,785,000)
40000
30000
20000
10000
x10000
4
ay
11
18
25
1
June
15
22
29
6
July
13
21
27
3
10
August
18
24
31
7
September
14
28
5
October
12
19
26
2
9
November
16
23
Descending
Triangle
Descending Triangle
Descending
Triangle
Descending Triangle
Descending
Triangle
Flag Pattern
Flag Pattern
Flag Pattern
Flag Pattern
Wedges
Rising Wedges
Wedges
Rising Wedges
Wedges
Wedges
Rising Wedges
Wedges
4700
4600
4500
4400
4300
4700
4600
4500
4400
4300
4200
4100
4000
3900
3800
3700
3600
3500
3400
3300
3200
3100
3000
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
4200
4100
4000
3900
3800
3700
3600
3500
3400
3300
3200
3100
3000
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
August
September
October
November
December
2003
February
March
April
May
Wedges
2650
2600
2550
2500
2450
2400
2350
2300
2250
2200
2150
2100
2050
2000
1950
1900
1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
October
November
December 2003
February
March
April
May
Rectangle Formation
Volume Analysis
Price
Up
Up
Down
Down
Volume
Up
Down
Up
Down
Market
Bullish
Bearish
Bearish
Bullish
Action
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Volume Analysis
28
4
February
11
18
25
4
March
11
18
25
1
April
15
PSIKOLOGIS LEVEL