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Impact of global warming on insects

Muhammad Mohsin Raza , Muhammad Aslam Khan , Muhammad Arshad , Muhammad Sagheer , Zeeshan Sattar , Jamil Shafi , Ehtisham ul Haq , Asim Ali , Usman Aslam , Aleena Mushtaq , Iqra Ishfaq , Zarnab Sabir & Aiman Sattar
a a a a a a a a b b a a a a

Department of Plant Pathology, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan

b

Department of Agri. Entomology, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan Published online: 05 Feb 2014.

To cite this article: Muhammad Mohsin Raza, Muhammad Aslam Khan, Muhammad Arshad, Muhammad Sagheer, Zeeshan Sattar, Jamil Shafi, Ehtisham ul Haq, Asim Ali, Usman Aslam, Aleena Mushtaq, Iqra Ishfaq, Zarnab Sabir & Aiman Sattar , Archives Of Phytopathology And Plant Protection (2014): Impact of global warming on insects, Archives Of Phytopathology And Plant Protection To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03235408.2014.882132

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Archives of Phytopathology and Plant Protection, 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03235408.2014.882132

Impact of global warming on insects

Muhammad Mohsin Razaa*, Muhammad Aslam Khana, Muhammad Arshadb, Muhammad Sagheerb, Zeeshan Sattara, Jamil Shaa, Ehtisham ul Haqa, Asim Alia, Usman Aslama, Aleena Mushtaqa, Iqra Ishfaqa, Zarnab Sabira and Aiman Sattara
a b

Department of Plant Pathology, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan; Department of Agri. Entomology, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan

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(Received 2 January 2014; accepted 3 January 2014) Climate change is the most debated issue of time-posing hazardous impacts on life on earth. Like other living entities, insects are also inuenced by rising temperatures, elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and uctuating precipitating patterns as range expansion, increased epizootics (insect outbreaks) and new species introduction in regions where previously these were not reported. Increasing temperature and elevated CO2 have substantial impacts on plantinsect interaction and integrated pest management programmes. Rising temperature leading to rapid development of insects and increasing the epizootics of harmful insects is a precarious threat not only to agroforestry but to urban extents as well. By employing the proactive and modern scientic management strategies like monitoring, modelling prediction, planning, risk rating, genetic diversity and breeding for resistance, the suspicions innate to climate change effects on can be diminished. Keywords: insects; global warming; climate change; insect outbreaks; insect management

Introduction As most people know, a rise in global temperature is happening from last few decades. Studies revealed that since 1850, 11 of the last 12 years are observed as the warmest most. Over the last 100 years, average increase in global surface temperature is by 0.7 C while maximum increase in temperature of 25 C has been observed near to the poles. Consequently, it is subsequent to increased ocean-water level which is due to melting of polar ice, warmer and littler winters with prior onset of spring season and later arrival of winter periods (Houghton 2001; Salinger et al. 2005; Collins et al. 2007). Generally, the warming is due to enhanced emissions of greenhouse gases (including methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and chlorouorocarbons (CFCs) engendered due to burning of fossil fuels by human beings. For instance, atmospheric concentration of CO2 has amplied by 35% over the last 200 years and temperature is predicted to be increased by 1.84 C from 2007 to 2100 (Johansen 2002; Karl & Trenberth 2003; Collins et al. 2007). Like other organisms, insects are also under the inuence of climate change. For instance, according to a survey of 1600 insect species, 940 revealed the inuence of climate change. Due to earlier spring events, range limits of different insects are expanding
*Corresponding author. Email: mohsin1570@gmail.com
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northward by 6.1 km/decade such as 35 species of butteries have shifted their survival ranges 35240 km northward in Europe (Parmesan et al. 1999). Moreover, in California, 70% of 23 buttery species have reformed their rst-ight behaviour as 24 days earlier than they did 31 years ago (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Parmesan 2006). Future turbulences will depend on the global increase in temperature over the next 100 years. A survey of about 1100 insect species revealed that climate change due to global warming engendered about 1537% of those species to extinction by 2050 (Thomas et al. 2004; Hance et al. 2007). Global warming and insect pests

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Biologically, insects are cold blooded having body temperature similar to their environment. Thus, only temperature can inuence on insect behaviour, development, distribution, reproduction and survival. It is believed that the impact of increasing temperature on insects mainly overwhelms the effects of other environmental elements (Bale et al. 2002), such as it has been estimated through models that with a 2 C increment in temperature might result in 15 additional life cycles per season (Yamamura & Kiritani 1998). Global warming, particularly increased temperatures, will bolster the insect population which results in increased public health pests and especially insect-vectored diseases. But it can also bring more severe climatic conditions such as longer and additional droughts, more frequent storms along with increased rainfall and elevated CO2 which will have adverse effects on plant growth and ultimately encourage insects to attack (Karl et al. 1995; Easterling et al. 2000; Stireman et al. 2005). Furthermore, due to warmer and shorter winters, insects will start breeding earlier (Bale et al. 2002); principally insects of medical importance like mosquitoes are likely to be inuenced potentially (Epstein 2001; Hopp & Foley 2001). Rising temperature have already exerted inuence on species distribution and diversity. For instance, in the USA and Canada, mountain pine beetle catastrophic forest pest has prolonged its range northward by about 186 miles with 1.9 C increase in temperature (Logan & Powell 2001). Elevated CO2 will increase carbonnitrogen balance in plants, which in turn will inuence insect-feeding behaviour, defensive chemical concentrations in plants, competition between insect species and plant compensation responses to insect herbivory (Coviella & Trumble 1999). Rising temperatures Globally, the temperature is rising, and insects and plants are responding in several ways (Table 1). It has been predicted through climatic models that average temperature of globe would rise 1.84 C till 2100 (Johansen 2002; Karl & Trenberth 2003; Collins et al. 2007). So, focus should be on range expansions of insects, arrival of new insects to areas in which those pests were not previously reported and modications of ecosystem that will allow some insects to reach extreme population level while driving other species into extinction. Range development Northward migration of insect population has been observed due to rising temperatures. For instance, green stinkbug (Acrosternum hilare) in England and Japan has demonstrated dramatic shifts of range of 185 miles in past 25 years with an increase of 2 C.

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Table 1. Examples of how increasing temperatures affect arthropod species and arthropod-related systems. Increasing temperature leads to: Increasing  Insect Population  Insect extinctions  Insect developmental rates  Invasive species introductions (due to rapid migration of people)  Migration up elevation gradients  Northward migration  Potential for insect outbreaks Decreasing  Effectiveness of insect bio-control by fungi  Insect diversity in ecosystems  Parasitism  Reliability of ETL

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Similarly in Europe, corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis) has shifted northward of more than 1000 km (Porter et al. 1991). In the same way, Ediths checker spot buttery (Euphydryas editha) has exhibited its population expansion northward in the USA (Parmesan 2006). Furthermore, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) has extended its range northward of more than 180 miles in last 15 years in the Rocky Mountains (Logan & Powell 2001) and now giving birth to each one generation per year in place of one every two years (Parmesan 2006) and it is expected to occur in Canadian pine forests. As similar range shifts have been detected in insect-fossil record due to changes in climatic conditions these migrations are not astonishing (Elias 1994). Change in frost pattern is one of the major reason behind range expansion (Fleming & Volney 1995). Incidence of spring frosts decreases as temperature increases and the resulting prolonged warmer periods enhance the period and intensity of insect epizootics. By planting earlier, growers can take advantage but these plants will then be accessible for crop-damaging insects and allowing them to take a quicker start and possibly add surplus generations of these insects during typical growing season. New insects Due to hurried movement of people and goods, new insect species are arriving habitually to areas that are previously not reported to those insect species. However, rising temperature results in the survival of insects in those areas where these insects could not thrive previously. For instance, in the twentieth century, potato psyllid, a destructive pest which migrated several times to California but usually persisted there only for a year primarily due to winter-cool temperatures that enforced this insect to ight to Mexico. Although, in 1999 or 2000, potato psyllid again migrated to California and established a large, year-round population since that time and persisted there for the last seven years. Resultantly, pepper, potato and tomato industries have undergone hefty losses (Liu & Trumble 2007). Ecosystem modications Rising temperatures will bolster the survival of some insect species over others such as a 3 C rise in temperature would decrease 90% offspring production of important antagonistic benecial wasps (Cotesia marginiventris), a common parasite of some caterpillar species. Thus, minor increase in temperature leads to debilitate the population of this benecial insect and increase the damage by caterpillar species, and would likely to enhance pesticide operations.

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In contrast, rising temperatures will favour some urban and agricultural insects. For instance, at higher temperatures, Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) are better competitors than other ant species (Dukes & Mooney 1999). So, as temperature rises, Argentine ants will likely disseminate northward, dislocating more inborn ant species. Similarly, another insect named spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) will also prot from rising of temperatures as eggs laid by this insect is 50% greater at 25 C rather that at 15 C (Rgnire 1983). Additionally, rising temperatures may inuence the reproduction timing in this insect in such a way that might be no longer affected by parasitoids which usually retain its population small (Fleming & Volney 1995). Logically, another outcome of rising temperatures is increase in the incidence and amount of forest res. For instance, trees become more vulnerable to insect attack when higher temperatures and droughts happen together such as in southern California where this effect was observed early in this decade, bark beetle dead trees of thousands of acres and fuelling enormous forest res. Consequently, some insect species are appealed to re-damaged trees and their populations can be expected to upsurge if their food supplies increase continuously. Subsequently, epizootics of destructive insect pest are expected to increase with rising temperature and can lead to considerable ecosystem modications such as in carbon and nitrogen cycling, energy ows and biomass decomposition (Haack & Byler 1993). For example, when premature leaf drop or defoliation will occur as a result of outbreaks, it would entirely change the specic nutritional composition of leaf litter, thus inuencing the biomass-decomposing organisms success. But with the existing research grounds, long-term effects are difcult to predict at such fundamental level. Raised CO2 Impact of increasing CO2 concentrations on plants is one of the most studied features of climate change and global warming (Table 2). As carbon is the key element in plants structure, raised CO2 let them to nurture more quickly due to rapid carbon assimilation. For example, greenhouse growers are familiar with this for a long time and many add CO2 deliberately to boost plant growth. Likewise, due to high photosynthetic rates in raised CO2, scientists initially supposed that it would be a remedy to worlds food security (LaMarche et al. 1984). Additionally, many crop plants would become more drought tolerant along with having a more quick growth rate because in elevated CO2 stomata do not open much.

Table 2.

Illustrations of how growing atmospheric CO2 affects plantinsect interactions.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 leads to: Increasing  Carbon-based plant defences  Effects of foliar applications of B. thuringiensis  Food consumption by caterpillars  Reproduction of aphids  Predation by lady beetle Decreasing  Effects of transgenic B. thuringiensis  Insect developmental rates  Nitrogen-based plant defences  Parasitism  Response to alarm pheromones by aphids

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Under raised atmospheric CO2 conditions, crop plants are likely to become more drought tolerant and predicted to produce good yields even under disparaging conditions (LaMarche et al.1984). But the prediction has not proven exact due to several factors such as under elevated CO2, plants grow more and ultimately insects eat more. For instance, it has been demonstrated through some early researches that Lima beans (Phaseolus lunatus) photosynthesize better and grow more quickly in raised CO2 concentrations along with 20% more attack by its primary pest, the cabbage looper (Trichoplusia ni). It occurred due to 28% less nitrogen-containing leaves in contrast to plants grown in ample concentrations of CO2. Being animal, nitrogen is the key element in insects body for its development. Plants grown in elevated CO2 when have less nitrogen in leaves, the cabbage looper respond to eat more leaf area to accumulate required amount of this key element. Such behaviour of increased feeding has been demonstrated by several insect groups like beetles, butteries, grasshoppers and moths (Coviella & Trumble 1999). Other potential factors for reduced crop production can be adaptation to raised CO2 that decelerates photosynthesis (Hollinger 1987) and rising temperatures that will reduce the crop efciency in warmer areas (IPCC 2012).

Plant defences Insects can be further affected due to disturbances such as plenty of carbon and lack of nitrogen that bring other major changes in plants. Mostly there are two kinds of chemical defences in plants that save plants from insect feeding i.e. carbon-containing compounds like tannins and phenolics, and nitrogen-containing compounds such as alkaloids and cyanogenic glycosides. Carbon-based compounds decrease the insects food digestion capability often by binding with proteins such as cotton having phenolics that can reduce insect feeding. In atmosphere of raised CO2 concentrations, carbonbased defences increase in many plant species. While nitrogen-based defences either act as toxins and debilitate the insects or make the plants inedible by acting as repellents like potatoes and plums having nitrogen-based defences and under raised CO2 condition these plant defences become reduced. So, the carbon and nitrogen balance will potentially inuence insects feeding behaviours.

Impact on crops There may be a vigorous growth of some crops in raised CO2 conditions, but there is a trade-off because as temperature rises seed production may drop (Vara Prasad et al. 2005). Droughts and oods linked with rising temperature will likely affect some of the increased growth. Along those lines, an increase of 1.52.5 C in average global temperature will extend the range of pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella), though it is now circumscribed to frost-free regions of Arizona. Such changes could result in subsequent crop damage (Gutierrez et al. 2006). Moreover, pine aphid (Schizolachnus pineti) demonstrated increases population rate, fertility and feeding at 26 C in contrast to 20 C (Holopainen & Kainulainen 2004). So, with rising temperature diversity of herbivorous insects and their inuence on plants increases generally (Wilf & Labandeira 1999).

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Increased epizootics Global warming will bring a number of disastrous events like oods and droughts and these frequencies of such events will result in herbivore populations. Predictions of increased incidence and extended durations of insect epidemics have been made for forest insects based on their previous studies (Volney & Fleming 2000; Logan et al. 2003). For example, in Norway birch forests, lepidopteran (Argyresthia retinella) outbreak was observed and concomitant to high temperatures and droughts (Tenow et al. 1999). Similarly, increased range of winter moth (Operophtera brumata) has been observed in Norway birch forests (Hagen et al. 2007). An outbreak of caterpillar (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) on Scot pine was encouraged by warmer winters due to rising temperatures (Hodar & Zamora 2004; Buffo et al. 2007). Epidemic of oak dieback disease occurred in Japan due to encounter of this fungus with ambrosia beetle (Platypus quercivorus) which has increased its range due to global warming (Kamata et al. 2002). Moreover, warming temperatures are anticipated to bolster European pine sawy (Neodiprion sertifer) and shoot beetle (Tomicus destruens) which result in excessive pine damage (Faccoli 2007). Impact on benecial insects Pests and predators are potentially inuenced by temperature. With the modication in temperature, behaviour of predators can be stimulated or dispirited. For example, below 11 C, reproduction rate of pea aphid at which lady beetle (Coccinella septempunctata) can prey it exceeds while the situation is reversed above 11 C. On the other hand, at higher temperatures the natural enemies of spruce budworm (C. fumiferana) become less operative (Harrington et al. 2001). Due to global warming, herbivorous insects may enlarge their ranges. Consequently, they could migrate to enemy-free areas where their parasitoids may or may not track them. Monophagous parasitoids will be likely to most extremely effected having difculty to adopt a new host (Hance et al. 2007).

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Implications of global warming and strategies to mitigate the issue Various models have been used to predict how global warming will affect insect ecosystems. Some of these models have been used to predict the response of individual insect pests to climate change (Logan et al. 2003). For example, CLIMEX has been used to explore the response to climate change of various insects and pathogen (Desprez-Loustau et al. 2007). Regrettably, many climatic models do not consider all important factors involved in global warming though these models have become as sophisticated. Furthermore, predictions of currently developed climatic models do not account for insect impacts on vegetation and mostly these models do not include the impact of insect as regime change agent (Folke et al. 2004). A little has been studied regarding the interactions of climate and disturbance whether the impacts of individual turbulences like forest insects on forest function and structure have been studies (Dale et al. 2001). Therefore, it is difcult to predict the extent to which global warming will affect the magnitude, severity or frequency of disturbances (Loehle & LeBlanc 1996). Much has been focused on the inuences of single disturbances on host plants and climate but knowledge concerning climate change impacts on insects has been insufcient yet. Oftenly, the role of insects, pathogens, abiotic stressors and their synergistic interactions with host under changing climate scenario

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are not included (Scherm 2004). There is consensus that climate change likely will stress trees and increase their vulnerability to insects, pathogens and emerging diseases (Brasier 2005). Modication in developmental rates of insects, host resistance, phenology and physiology of hostinsect interactions will occur from global warming. For instance, plant defences will be affected by elevated CO2 by altering host anatomy and physiology like extra accumulation of carbohydrates in leaves, lowered nutrient concentration, increased bre content, extra layer of epidermal cells and greater number of mesophyll cells (Chakraborty et al. 1998). Tree density and canopy size may increase as CO2 increase in atmosphere resulting in substantial increase in insect feeding (Manning 1995). Here, we suggested different categories of management tactics to cope the issue of insect outbreaks under climate change. Our coverage of management impacts addresses only a portion of the full scope. We have focused on key points where we feel crop health agents have the greatest inuence. Implementation of the discussed strategies will differ, depending on the state of the science to bolster the activities, nancial status, human perception and other existing resources, and what resource management aims are proposed. IPM modication Integrated pest management generally integrates chemical controls (pesticides), biological controls (antagonists, predators and parasites) and cultural controls (sowing time and resistant varieties) to decrease insects below population threshold that will result in economic losses. Many of the pests can deal with enough exible IPM methods but the desire is to reduce the amount of global warming (Socolow 2005). Mostly, growers and researchers design IPM tactics to minimise detrimental environmental impacts while maximising economic returns (Trumble 1998). Because insect populations will development is more quick and faster at higher temperatures which result in hefty crop damage quickly, IPM strategies should be modied to address the issue of rising temperature. For instance, degree day models containing IPM programmes may need only slight modication unless biological control agents include in the control strategies (Stacey & Fellowes 2002). Monitoring Monitoring the spatial occurrence patterns of insects in relation to annual weather patterns and ranges of host crops and trees will inform adaptive management. By conducting systematic surveys of host-plant growth, health and mortality by skilled personnel at regular intervals, the consistency of monitoring data will be enhanced. The efciency of management tactics can be employed meritoriously for long-term management of host crops and trees by coordinating monitoring data with disturbing agents (Sturrock et al. 2011). Modelling prediction With the abrupt variations in environmental conditions by global warming, it will be difcult for professionals to depend on previous experiences and observations to plan and predict for the future, otherwise must develop and use a diversity of modelling tools (Sturrock et al. 2011). Climate models coupled with environmental envelopes such as

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those developed by Hamann and Wang (2006) provide a powerful tool to forecast the potential range of changes across a landscape. Phenomenally diverse model such as from vegetation to climate to disturbance agents, when well integrated can lead to effect host-crop management under changing climate. The next step is to couple those changing environmental envelopes with the ecology of host plants and insects. Modelling insects climate envelopes along with host reactions to climate can thus increase the capability to forecast insect attack outcomes. Risk rating Risk- and hazard-rating systems are essential components of crop-health strategy and should be in place, and applied, in advance of insect epidemics (outbreaks). As these systems have proven to be useful when attempting to forecast future pest impacts due to climate change, they should be a priority for crop-health research and development. Relating historical occurrence with bio geo-climatic zone variants can be helpful momentary. Genetic diversity Increased host-crop species and genetic diversity in combination with facilitated migration is one of the most effective, efcient and durable methods to maintain healthy plantations in the aspect of climate change and global warming (Millar et al. 2007; ONeill 2008). Planting species and populations (seed lots) that adapt to future climatic uctuations preserve the hostpest balance in the forest ecosystem. Facilitated migration of host species provides an opportunity to increase resilience and reduce vulnerability to insects because most of the insect pests are species specic, so the simple act of increasing the number of species directly reduces the risks of outbreak, and assist to attain management goals. Breeding for resistance Gene conservation will be critical as climate change, both for maintaining and enhancing the resilience of host species and for the hope of improving crop-level resistance to pests (Yanchuk 2001). Through breeding, insect and disease resistance, genetic diversity and tolerance to environmental stresses can be promoted. As global warming bolstering insects by increasing generation per year and range expansion (Bale et al. 2002), such rate of climatic uctuations might exceed the current capability of breeding programmes to face the drastic effects of these uctuations on crop plants. The unprecedented level of uncertainty of climate patterns, host conditions and insect pests, signals to investigate and adopt resistance mechanisms that will provide a general insect tolerance or resistance to forest trees (Woods et al. 2010). Conclusions Global warming is a serious challenge to agribusiness and our ecosystem as its consequences are hazardous to crop health. Rising temperatures will inuence the insect behaviour, distribution, development, survival, reproduction, geographical rang end population size and elevated CO2 on the other hand will alter the chemical plant defences, parasitism, reproduction and insect developmental rates. Ultimately, these disturbances

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pose hazardous impacts on crop health and our ecosystem. A proactive and scientic approach will be required to cope with this issue. We recommend different tactics to manage the insects under changing climate scenario: modifying IPM, monitoring, modelling prediction, risk rating, genetic diversity and breeding for resistance. These strategies can be a promising programme for crop-health management and sustainable ecosystem from insects under changing climate. References
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