Global Games Investment Review 2014

Executive Summary
Contact: info@digi-capital.com

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Contents (of full Global Games Investment Review 2014)

Executive summary (free download)

10

Sector Reviews
(economics, dynamics, trends, M&A and investments 2010-2013, public company comparables and sector indices*)

Mobile/tablet Social/casual Massively Multiplayer Online (MMO) Console/PC Tech/gamification Advertising

23 60 84 103 127 147 152

In full Review only

Growth and consolidation opportunities+

About Digi-Capital

159

* As at 6th January 2014. No indices for tech/gamification or games advertising + For illustrative purposes only

Table of contents
1. Executive summary (pages 10-22)
a) Global games market economic overview i. Major global games market economic trends ii. Global revenue forecast by games sector (2011 - 2017F) iii. Mobile/online games revenue forecast by region (2011 - 2017F) b) Global games M&A and investment overview i. Global games M&A transaction value and volume (2005 - 2013) ii. Global games investments transaction value and volume (2005 - 2013) iii. Global games IPOs by country (2005 - 2013) iv. Global games M&A summary by sector 2013 v. Global games investments summary by sector 2013 vi. Global games public market sector indices* (2011 - 2013) c) Games industry trends/highlights i. Games subsectors overview ii. Games market segmentation/competition overview iii. Games Value vs Volume markets by sector and geography iv. Mobile apps/games usage 2013 v. Mobile apps/games revenue (2010 - 2013), including revenue split vi. Free-to-play/communal gameplay trends/economics vii. Trade consolidator/acquirer overview viii. Games sector consolidation curve
FREE DOWNLOAD

* As at 6th January 2014. No indices for tech/gamification or games advertising

Table of contents (of full Global Games Investment Review 2014)

2. Mobile/tablet sector review (pages 23-59)
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a) Mobile games/apps economic analysis i. Mobile games/apps revenue forecast (2011 - 2017F) ii. Smartphone/tablet sales forecast by OS (2013 - 2017F) iii. Mobile broadband subscription forecast by smartphone and tablet (2011 - 2019F) b) iOS/Android usage by app type (mobile/tablet) c) Mobile/tablet game usage by game genre d) Mobile game sector segmentation and highlights e) Global mobile app download forecast (2011 - 2017F), including free vs paid split f) Mobile app revenue forecast (2011 - 2017F) including paid, in-app purchases and advertising revenue split g) Mobile user Lifetime Value economic analysis h) Mobile user acquisition approach and cost analysis i) Apple case study j) iOS vs Android analysis i. Apple App Store vs Google Play apps, downloads and relative monetization analysis ii. Global Android app store analysis including downloads, apps and average download per app (Amazon, Anzhi, AppChina, D.cn, gFan, Google Play, HiAPK, Lenovo, Mobango, Opera Mobile, SlideME, SK T-Store, Tencent) k) Over-the-Top messaging app market share analysis, including share of domestic top 100 iPhone games (Kakao Talk, LINE, Weixin) l) Mobile games 2012/2013 IPO analysis (Ourpalm, IGG, Colopl, Forgame) m) Public company comparables* including 2013A, 2014E, 2015E, 2016E enterprise value/sales, enterprise value/EBITDA and price/earnings multiples (Ateam, Colopl, Com2Us, Crooz, Cyberagent, DeNA, Drecom, Forgame, G5 Entertainment, Gameloft, Gamevil, Glu Mobile, Gree, GungHo, IGG, Klab, NHN Entertainment, Taomee, Voltage) n) Global mobile games public company index 2011 - 2013* (Ateam, Colopl, Com2Us, Crooz, Cyberagent, DeNA, Drecom, Forgame, G5 Entertainment, Gameloft, Gamevil, Glu Mobile, Gree, IGG, Klab, NHN Entertainment, Taomee, Voltage)x o) Sector M&A transactions (2010 - 2013) including target, acquirer, transaction value and revenue/EBITDA multiples (where available) p) Sector investment transactions (2010 - 2013) including target, acquirer and transaction value (where available) q) Potential games sector investment/M&A opportunities+ by investor/acquirer type (major online/mobile games, major console games, independent games, major technology, media and telecoms, venture capital, private equity)

* As at 6th January 2014. x GungHo not included in index chart for relative scale, but included in overall indices in Executive Summary + For illustrative purposes only

Table of contents (of full Global Games Investment Review 2014)

3. Social/casual sector review (pages 60-83)
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a) Social games economic analysis i. Global social games revenue forecast (2010 2014F) ii. Casual players vs payers male:female ratio iii. Social player age profile (UK) b) Sector segmentation i. Leading Facebook social games company (>1M DAU) market share ii. Social network average developer revenue shares (Facebook, Tencent, RenRen, Sina Weibo, Mixi) c) Social games paying players economic analysis (average spend, share of revenue, share of paying players) d) Social games development approach overview e) Zynga case study i. Bookings, revenue and EBITDA (Q1 2011 - Q3 2013) ii. Daily Active Users (DAU), Monthly Active Users (MAU) and Monthly Unique Users (MUU) (Q1 2011 - Q3 2013) f) Facebook user analysis for leading social games companies >1M DAU (total games portfolio DAU vs average DAU per game) g) Social/casual games value chain analysis and sector highlights h) Public company comparables* including 2013A, 2014E, 2015E, 2016E enterprise value/sales, enterprise value/EBITDA and price/earnings multiples (Boyaa, Electronic Arts, Real Networks, Zynga, Gamania, Neowiz, NHN Entertainment, Tencent, YY) i) Global social/casual games public company index 2011 - 2013* (Boyaa, Electronic Arts, Real Networks, Zynga, Gamania, Neowiz, NHN Entertainment, Tencent, YY) j) Sector M&A transactions (2010 - 2013) including target, acquirer and transaction value (where available) k) Sector investment transactions (2010 - 2013) including target, acquirer and transaction value (where available) l) Potential games sector investment/M&A opportunities+ by investor/acquirer type (major online/mobile games, major console games, independent games, major technology, media and telecoms, venture capital, private equity)

* As at 6th January 2014. + For illustrative purposes only

Table of contents (of full Global Games Investment Review 2014)

4. MMO sector review (pages 84-102)
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a) MMO games market share analysis i. By game ii. By genre b) Sector segmentation and highlights c) MMO business models hierarchy d) Nexon case study i. Overview ii. Revenue growth (2001 - 2013E) iii. Revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin (2008 - 2013E) iv. Major game franchise lifetime revenues v. Regional revenues (China, Korea, Japan, other) e) Tencent case study i. Overview ii. Revenue, EBT and EBT margin (2008 - 2012) iii. Overall Chinese games sector market share by game typex f) Public company comparables* including 2013A, 2014E, 2015E, 2016E enterprise value/sales, enterprise value/EBITDA and price/earnings multiples (Activision Blizzard, ActozSoft, Asiasoft, ChangYou, Electronic Arts, Giant Interactive, Joymax, Kingsoft, Khongzhong, NCSoft, Netease, Nexon, NHN Entertainment, Perfect World, Shanda Games, Tencent, The9, Webzen, WeMade, YD) g) Global MMO games public company index 2011 - 2013* (Activision Blizzard, ActozSoft, Asiasoft, ChangYou, Electronic Arts, Giant Interactive, Joymax, Kingsoft, Khongzhong, NCSoft, Netease, Nexon, NHN Entertainment, Perfect World, Shanda Games, Tencent, The9, Webzen, WeMade, YD) h) Sector M&A transactions (2010 - 2013) including target, acquirer and transaction value (where available) i) Sector investment transactions (2010 - 2013) including target, acquirer and transaction value (where available) j) Potential games sector investment/M&A opportunities+ by investor/acquirer type (major online/mobile games, major console games, independent games, major technology, media and telecoms, venture capital, private equity)

x Overall market not Tencent specific * As at 6th January 2014 + For illustrative purposes only

Table of contents (of full Global Games Investment Review 2014)

5. Console sector review (pages 103-126)
a) b) c) d)
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e) f) g)

h) i) j) k)

Console games sector overview Global console games hardware and software revenue forecast (2011 - 2017F) 8th console generation analysis (Sony PS4 vs Microsoft Xbox One) Console games economics i. Development costs vs sales analysis ii. Major console games franchise sales summary iii. Console publisher economic analysis iv. Game development financing model overview Console games sector value chain analysis Sector segmentation and highlights Public company comparables* including 2013A and 2014E, 2015E, 2016E enterprise value/sales, enterprise value/EBITDA and price/earnings multiples (Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts, Gamestop, Take Two Interactive, Capcom, Konami, Namco Bandai, Nintendo, Sega Sammy, Square Enix, Gameloft, Ubisoft) Global MMO games public company index 2011 - 2013* (Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts, Gamestop, Take Two Interactive, Capcom, Konami, Namco Bandai, Nintendo, Sega Sammy, Square Enix, Gameloft, Ubisoft) Sector M&A transactions (2010 - 2013) including target, acquirer and transaction value (where available) Sector investment transactions (2010 - 2013) including target, acquirer and transaction value (where available) Potential games sector investment/M&A opportunities+ by investor/acquirer type (major online/mobile games, major console games, independent games, major technology, media and telecoms, venture capital, private equity)

* As at 6th January 2014 + For illustrative purposes only

Table of contents (of full Global Games Investment Review 2014)

6. Games tech/gamification sector review (pages 127-146)
a) b) c) d) e)
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Games technology value chain analysis Gamification industry subsectors overview Sector M&A transactions (2010 - 2013) including target, acquirer and transaction value (where available) Sector investment transactions (2010 - 2013) including target, acquirer and transaction value (where available) Potential games sector investment/M&A opportunities* by investor/acquirer type (major online/mobile games, major console games, independent games, major technology, media and telecoms, venture capital, private equity)

7. Games advertising sector review (pages 147-151)

a) b) c) d) e) Games advertising sector overview Games advertising revenue forecast (2011 - 2017F) Sector M&A transactions (2010 - 2013+) including target, acquirer and deal value (where available) Sector investment transactions (2010 - 2013) including target, acquirer and deal value (where available) Potential games sector investment/M&A opportunities* by investor/acquirer type (major online/mobile games, major console games, independent games, major technology, media and telecoms, venture capital, private equity)

8. Growth and consolidation opportunities* (pages 152-158)

a) By investor/acquirer type (major online/mobile games, major console games, independent games, major technology, media and telecoms, venture capital, private equity) b) By sector (mobile/tablet, social/casual, MMO, console/PC, enabling tech/gamification, advertising)

Note: no public company comparables or indices foe games tech/gamification or games advertising * For illustrative purposes only + Note: no games advertising M&A transactions in 2013

Executive summary

10

Mobile driving revenue to $100B by 2017 and $5.6B M&A in 2013

Mobile could drive total games software industry revenue to $100B by 2017
Mobile/online games could grow to ~$60B revenue (23.6% CAGR 11-17F) Mobile/online games could take 60% games software market share by 2017 Total global games software revenue could grow to ~$100B revenue by 2017

Mobile and Asia drove games M&A to $5.6B in 2013 ($7.9B including Activision-Blizzard)
M&A value grew by 29% from 2012 to a record $5.6B (excluding $2.3B management led portion of Activision-Blizzard/Vivendi) Average M&A deal size grew 23% from 2012 to $63.8M Mobile dominated M&A by transaction value (67%) and volume (36%)

Asia the biggest growth driver of economic value in mobile/online games

Asia and Europe could take >80% combined revenue share for mobile and online games 9 of the top 10 games M&As of 2013 had Asian buyers, up from 8 out of 10 in 2012 Global and pan-regional M&A deals significant in 2013 pan-regional relationships remain critical for trade exits 13 out of 15 games IPOs in 2011-2013 were by Chinese, Japanese or South Korean companies

Investment recovers slightly, returning to 2010 levels

Investment value grew 16% from 2012 to $1B, but early stage investment gap remains Average investment deal size grew 14.8% from 2012 to $6M Mobile games and tech/gamification dominated investment in 2013

Games dominate mobile app usage and revenue Over-the-Top messaging apps (OTT) a new disruption
Games took 32% of 2013 mobile app usage (blended iOS/Android tablet/smartphone) - 67% of tablet usage Games took 72% of 2013 mobile app revenue and ~40% of mobile app downloads Asian OTT platforms beginning to disrupt mobile games in domestic markets Kakao Talk, WeChat and LINE taking significant share

8th generation console cycle beginning to address decline, but questions remain
8th console generation (PS4, Xbox One, Wii U) beginning to address long term decline Questions about potential new installed bases, transition from 7th generation and mobile cannibalization

11

Sources: Sources and details by sector in full Global Games Investment Review 2014

Mobile to take games software to $100B Asia the growth engine

(Individual sector analyses included in full Global Games Investment Review)

Mobile and online games could grow to ~$60B revenue (23.6% CAGR 11-17F), take 60% games software market share and grow the games software market to ~$100B revenue. The console* sector is important but ex-growth

Global Video Games Sector Revenue ($B)

120 100 80 60 40

Asia and Europe could take >80% combined revenue share for mobile and online games. North America remains an important mobile and online market

20

0
2011 2012 2013 Console software 2014F Online 2015F Mobile 2016F PC 2017F Advertising Dedicated hardware

Regional Mobile/Online Games Revenue ($B)

60 50

Chinese, Japanese and South Korean domestic strength has produced high volume, low ARPU**, cost efficient games businesses with up to 50%+ operating margins, enabling significant investment in foreign markets

40 30 20 10 0 2011 2012 Asia Pacific 2013 EMEA 2014F North America 2015F 2016F 2017F Latin America

12

Sources: PWC, Gartner, AppAnnie, Digi-Capital, Companies Note: Online includes MMO, casual and social games * Note: Console excludes MMO ** Average Revenue per User

Record $5.6B M&A in 2013 driven by mobile and Asia

$5.6B M&A in 2013 ($7.9B including Activision-Blizzard)
M&A value grew by 29% from 2012 to record $5.6B (excluding $2.3B management led portion of Activision-Blizzard/Vivendi deal) M&A volume grew 5% from 2012 to 88 transactions Average M&A deal size grew 23% from 2012 to $63.8M Mobile dominated M&A by value (67%) and volume (36%)
Global video games investment (ex-IPOs) ($M)
6,000
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 M&A Value 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 M&A Volume Investment Value Investment Volume

180
160 140 120

100
80 60 40

Investment recovers slightly, returning to 2010 levels

Investment value grew 16% from 2012 to $1B Investment volume grew 1% from 2012 to 167 transactions Average investment deal size grew 14.8% from 2012 to $6M Mobile games and tech/gamification dominated investment in 2013

20
0

Asian IPOs continued to deliver exits for investors

Games IPOs in the last decade have been a largely Chinese, Japanese and South Korean phenomenon 13 out of 15 games IPOs in 2011-2013 were by Asian companies
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Games IPOs (number by country of origin)

Asia increased its domination of games M&A again in 2013

9 of the top 10 games M&As in 2013 had Asian acquirers 8 of the top 10 games M&As in 2012 had Chinese, Japanese or South Korean acquirers Global and pan-regional M&A deals significant in 2013 pan-regional relationships remain critical for trade exits Large domestic deals in China, Japan and South Korea a major factor

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

(See transactions list in full Global Games Investment Review 2014)

China

Japan

South Korea

US

UK

13

Sources: Sources and details by sector in full Global Games Investment Review 2014 Note: Funds raised/transaction value includes only disclosed or estimated amounts, including announced earn outs where applicable. Activision-Blizzard/Vivendi deal not included in charts on this page

Mobile dominated M&A and investment in 2013

Games sector M&A 2013
4,000

3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000

1,500
1,000 500 -

Tech/Gamification MMO
5

Console/PC Social/Casual
10 15 20 25 30 35

Advertising
0

Transaction Volume

Games sector investments 2013

500

Mobile

Transaction Value ($M)

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

Tech/Gamification

MMO Console/PC Social/Casual

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Advertising

Transaction Volume

14

Sources: See sources by sector in full Global Games Investment Review 2014 Note: Funds raised/transaction value only includes disclosed or estimated amounts, including announced earn outs where applicable. ActivisionBlizzard/Vivendi deal not included in charts on this page

(See transactions list by sector in full Global Games Investment Review 2014)

Mobile Transaction Value ($M)

Public markets driven by mobile and recent Asian IPOs

Global games public market sector indices (base = 100)

250

200

150

100

50 31-Dec-10

30-Apr-11 Mobile Games Index

31-Aug-11

31-Dec-11

30-Apr-12

31-Aug-12

31-Dec-12

30-Apr-13

31-Aug-13 All Games Index

31-Dec-13

Social/Casual Games index

MMO Games Index

Console Games Index

(See public company comparables and indices list by sector in full Global Games Investment Review 2014)

15

Sources: Factset, Bloomberg, Lazard

Disruption from industry transition across all market sectors

Mobile/tablet
Single and multi-player player mobile games Played on smartphones/tablets Example company: Supercell

Over-the-Top (OTT) mobile-social

Multiplayer mobile-social games Played on OTT mobile messaging platforms Example company: Kakao Talk

Social online
Simple multiplayer online games Played on social networks Example company: King

Casual online
Simple single player online/download games Played on browser or downloaded to PC Example company: Big Fish Games

Subscription Massively Multiplayer Online (MMO)

Hundreds of thousands of simultaneous player games Played on PC Example company: Activision-Blizzard

Free-to-play MMO
Millions of simultaneous player games Played on PC/browser Example company: Tencent

Console/PC
Retail/digital download console/PC games Played on PS3/4, Xbox360/One, Wii/U, 3DS, Vita, PC Example company: EA

Tech/gamification
Games technology/gamification platforms Software as a Service B2B business model Example company: Unity

(Individual game sector trend and economic analysis in full Global Games Investment Review 2014)

16

As competition intensifies to capture growth

Mobile/Online

Hardcore

Casual

Console/PC

17

Note: selected companies

With the Big V having split games into Value and Volume markets

Value
(large long-term niche)

Volume
Europe
(mass market growth)

America
Japan

China
India Mobile/ tablet Mobile-social

Console

South Korea
Brazil

Over-the-Top Free-to-play MMO Tech/gamification Social/casual online

Subscription MMO

Users: thousands to tens of millions ARPU: $-$$$ Costs: $ millions to tens of millions Operating profit: negative to 20%+ Growth rates: negative to <10% Business model: unit sales, subscriptions, virtual goods

Users: thousands to hundreds of millions ARPU: - $$ Costs: $ tens of thousands to millions Operating profit: negative to 70%+ Growth rates: negative to 100%+ Business model: unit sales, free, virtual goods, ads

18

Games dominate mobile app usage, downloads and revenue

iOS/Android (Mobile/Tablet) Usage
News 2% Productivity 2% Other 6%

Global mobile apps/games revenue ($B)

25

Utility 8%

Entertainment 8%

Games monetise ~4x more effectively than all other mobile app types
Browser 20% Social Networking 24%

15

Note: Games = 67% tablet usage Top 5 mobile app countries (revenue)

10

0 2010 2011 Non-games mobile app revenue 2012 2013 Mobile games revenue

(Detailed mobile games sector analysis and forecasts in full Global Games Investment Review 2014)

19

* Sources: Flurry, AppAnnie, Gartner

Games = 72% revenue

Games 32%

20

Free-to-play and communal gameplay changing sector dynamics

Communal Gameplay
(competitive/collaborative) Free-to-play MMO

Single player vs communal gameplay monetization comparison

OTT+

13x

Subscription MMO

12x
>10x 10x

Social

8x

Paid

Tech/Gamification

Free To Play

6x

4x Mobile/tablet 2x Casual online 0x Paying users ARPPU PvE* only PvP* only ARPU PvP and PvE

1.07x

Single Player

Single player

20

Sources: Companies, Kongregate * ARPPU = average revenue per paying user, ARPU = average revenue per user, , LTV = lifetime value, PvE = Player vs environment, PvP = Player vs player + Over-the-Top mobile messaging platform (e.g., LINE, Kakao Talk, WeChat)

With a changing pyramid of potential consolidators

9 of the top 10 M&As in 2013 had Asian buyers Todays growth companies could become tomorrows consolidators

(See M&A transactions detail in full Global Games Investment Review 2014)

21

Note: Companies are for illustrative purposes only

Online/mobile independents - exit now or invest for growth

(Growth/consolidation opportunitiesx in full Global Games Investment Review 2014)

Consolidation Curve by Sector

Sector Consolidation High Social/Casual Online Sector Launch Sector Growth for Scale Sector Consolidation Sector Equilibrium Console/PC Subscription MMO

Free-to-play MMO

Medium

Mobile/tablet

Mobile-Social Gamification Tech Low - VC Investment - Some small M&A - Growth equity investment - High volume, mid-market strategic M&A - Leveraged buyouts - Low volume, large scale strategic M&A - Limited M&A/ investment - Cost focus - Alliances or spinoffs Expected Deal Activity* Advertising OTT+

22

* Note: outlier deals may occur + Over-the Top mobile messaging platform (e.g. LINE, Kakao Talk, WeChat) x For illustrative purposes only

About Digi-Capital

23

About Digi-Capital
Digi-Capital is an investment bank for games, apps, digital media/services and technology/telecoms across America, Asia (China, Japan, South Korea) and Europe
Sell-side M&A Buy-side M&A Fundraising Investment

Board Advisory

Strategic Consulting

Industry Analysis

Selected Clients

24

Global Games Investment Review 2014

Executive Summary
Contact: info@digi-capital.com

www.digi-capital.com

Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

Digi-Capital 2014