Mathematics

Work Sheet

Topic: Probability

1) In summer the probability of a wet day is 0.25. On a wet day, the probability of wind is 0.2. On a dry day, the probability of wind is 0.4. You may assume that the weather each day is independent of the weather the day before. (a) Copy and complete the tree diagram below. [3]

(b) When it is wet and windy, concerts have to be postponed until the next day. Find the probability that Monday's concert (i) has to be postponed, (ii) takes place on Tuesday. (c) Sailing boats can only sail on a windy day. Find .the probability that they cannot sail on Monday. [3] [2] [3]

(d) On a dry day with no wind, the probability that the temperature is more than 30 C is 0.9. On a wet or windy day this will not happen. Find (i) the probability that the temperature is more than 30 C on Monday, [2]

(ii) the probability that on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday the temperature is more than 30 C. [2]

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2) Doctors use a test to find who has a certain illness. The probability of a positive test result is 0.20. However 15% of those with positive test results do not have the illness; 5% of those with negative test results do have the illness. (This means that these people are given an incorrect test result.) (a) Copy and complete the tree diagram below. [3]

(b) Find the probability that a person chosen at random (i) has a positive test result and has the illness, (ii) has the illness, (iii) is given an incorrect test result. (c) In a certain town, 10 000 people, chosen at random, are given this test. Estimate how many of these people will (i) be told they have the illness, (ii) actually have the illness. [1] [2] [2] [2] [3]

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3) Paula and Tarek take part in a quiz. The probability that Paula thinks she knows the answer to any question is 0.6. If Paula thinks she knows, the probability that she is correct is 0.9. Otherwise she guesses and the probability that she is correct is 0.2. (a) Copy and complete the tree diagram. [3]

(b) Find the probability that Paula (i) thinks she knows the answer and is correct, (ii) gets the correct answer. [1] [2]

(c) The probability that Tarek thinks he knows the answer to any question is 0.55. If Tarek thinks he knows, he is always correct. Otherwise he guesses and the probability that he is correct is 0.2. (i) Draw a tree diagram for Tarek. Write all the probabilities on your diagram. [3] (ii) Find the probability that Tarek gets the correct answer. (d) There are 100 questions in the quiz. Estimate the number of correct answers given by (i) Paula, (ii) Tarek. [1] [2]

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