North American Interconnected Grids

The ERCOT grid:

One of 9 ISOs in North America Covers 75% of Texas land Serves 85% of Texas load 38,000 miles of transmission lines >550 generation units 62,429 Megawatts peak demand (set 8/17/06) Single point of control Interconnection

ERCOT connections to other grids are limited to direct current (DC) ties, which allow control over flow of electricity

Sept. 20, 2006

ERCOT Update

ERCOT - Transmission Additions and Upgrades

38,000 miles of transmission lines
8,000 miles of 345kV lines 16,000 miles of 138 kV lines 1,000 Miles of new transmission since 1999 including 700 miles of new 345 kV lines 1,500 miles of transmission lines upgraded since 1999 Numerous substation additions and upgrades Significant additional projects underway

Sept. 20, 2006

ERCOT Update

The Fraction of Primary Energy Used for Electric Generation Continues to Grow
60 fraction of primary energy used for electric generation

50

40

30

20

10

0 1940

1950

1960

1970

1980 year

1990

2000

2010

2020

Chart derived from DOE Annual Energy Review 2003 data. Courtesy Dr. Santoso.

How Electric Consumption Impacts Emissions (3-1 Rule)

Typical Electric System

We Love to Use Electricity

Some facts:
The 3 to 1 rule to produce 1 kWh of electricity, it takes 3 kWH of fuel If you work hard at manual labor all day, you will produce about 1 kWh of energy 1 kWh of electrical energy cost about 12 - 14 cents

Big plug, little outlet!

Conservation is an Important Part of the Energy Solution Compare Incandescent and Compact Fluorescent Lights
Used to generate light But it actually creates more heat than light, and your air conditioner has to remove the heat! 60W, 8760 Hours $74

For same light level, 14W 14W, 8760 Hours $17

Improving Building Efficiency is a Big Part of the Energy Solution

Proper orientation and design of structure Proper design and installation of HVAC Proper installation of insulation Reduced air leakage Water conservation Efficient windows Efficient lighting Efficient appliances, equipment

Section 1 A Global Perspective The Big Picture

Population expected to reach 8 billion persons by 2030 95% of population growth expected to occur in non-OECD

October, 2007

U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil

Have Oil
Saudi Arabia Iraq Kuwait Iran UAE Venezuela Russia Libya Mexico China Nigeria U.S. 26% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2%

Use Oil
U.S. Japan China Germany Canada Russia Brazil S. Korea France India Mexico Italy 26% 7% 6% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%

The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest consuming nations combined.
Updated March 2003. Source: International Energy Annual 2001 (EIA), Tables 11.4 and 11.10.

Energy Use Grows With Economic Development

Energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2002)

Chinese population 1.3 billion today 40% of worlds coal last year Use grew 13% last year alone 2006 brought on 50 gw of new coal construction
Primary Energy per capita (GJ)

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

US

S. Korea Greece

AustraliaFrance UK Japan

Ireland

Malaysia Mexico 0 China 0 5,000 Brazil India

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

GDP per capita (PPP, $1995)

October, 2007

11

Source: UN and DOE EIA

Global CO2 Emissions

October, 2007

12

Source: ExxonMobil Outlook for Energy A View to 2030

49% Imported!

Source: Wood McKenzie

OIL- U.S. Consumption

! d e t r o p m i 7%

The worlds existing 435 nuclear reactors currently need 180 million pounds of uranium each year.
180 160 140

80 million pound gap

120

100 Million Pounds 80

60

40

20

0 Needed Produced

Power Generation Usually based upon the rotation of a dynamo

But what causes the rotation?

Conventional Gas-Fired Steam Power Plant

Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear

Large Generators 500 MW 750 MW 1000 MW

A Time of Increasing Power Plant Construction Costs Compounds the Difficulty

2500 2300 Construction Costs $/kW 2000

1500 1195 1000 629 500 423 0 2004 Pulverized Coal

1195

1337 900

629

704 600

423 2005

458 2006

2007 Low-efficiency gas (GT)

High-efficiency gas (CCGT)

October, 2007

19

Source: Morgan Stanley, Electric Utility View, July 31, 2007

The Texas Energy Picture

Oil production peaked in 1972 Texas became a net energy importer in 1993 5th largest energy user in the world Texas accounts for 12% of U.S. energy consumption, why?
60% of US petrochemical production 25% of US refining capacity 19 million automobiles 22 million population

The Texas Energy Picture

Annual growth in electrical use averaged +3.5% over last 10 years 437 electric generating plants Electric generating capacity
Natural gas Coal Nuclear Renewable* 49% 39% 10% 2%

*Leads US in renewable energy potential

ERCOT Load

62,339 MW summer peak demand Majority of load is concentrated in eastern half of state

October, 2007

22

Winter, Spring, and Summer Day Load Shapes with Fuel Mix
MW MW

Noon MW

Midnight

Noon

Midnight

Noon October, 2007 23

Midnight

Other Long-Term Reliability Factors

Region also needs additional fuel diversity

Reduces vulnerability to supply disruption and volatile pricing

Natural gas produces over 40% of the electric energy utilized on the ERCOT grid and always sets the marginal price

Sept. 20, 2006

ERCOT Update

20-Year Load & Generation Maturity Scenarios

This gap must be filled with new generation to maintain reliability

Generation units are typically retired after 30-50 years of service Sept. 20, 2006 ERCOT Update

Predicted Texas Electric Energy Usage

600,000

500,000

UP, UP, UP

400,000 GWh

300,000

200,000

100,000

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Characteristics of Generation Options

Resource Coal Nat. Gas Combined Cycle. Nat. Gas Combustion Turbine Nuclear Cost / MWh $36-40 $52-69 $74-115 $36-42 Characteristic Base load Base load Peak load Base load Benefits Stable cost, slow responsive Short lead time, responsive Short lead time, quick start, very responsive Stable cost, no emissions, slow responsive No emissions, no fuel cost, low operating cost No emissions, no fuel cost, offsets summer peak load Drawbacks Emissions, long lead time, high up-front costs Volatile fuel cost Volatile fuel cost Lead time, security, spent fuel Not dispatchable, not responsive, transmission needs, low value on-peak High upfront cost, not responsive

Wind

$39-53

Intermittent

Solar PV

$314

Intermittent

Other Ways to Rotate a Generator

Why Renewables?
Global climate change Carbon emissions limits and/or taxes Green power marketing programs Declining costs Public support
29

Renewable Technologies

Solar

Geothermal

Hydro

Wave Biomass Wind

Tidal 30

Renewable Energy Costs Have Decreased

Historical and Projected

2006

Costs as percentage of 1980 levels Source: NREL 2005, 2002

Renewable technologies at various stages of development and deployment

October, 2007

32

Renewable Technologies in Texas

Other Hydro 2% 5%

Renewable Generating Capacity Installed in Texas (MW) Technology Existing New Total Biomass 12.2 12.2 Hydro 197.0 10.3 207.3 Landfill Gas 6.3 54.3 60.6 Solar 1.2 1.2 Wind 115.8 3,823.3 3,939.1 Total 319.1 3,901.3 4,220.4

As of July 31, 2007

Wind 93%

Why Wind?
Availability Cost Short Construction Lead-Time Ease of Interconnection Public Acceptance

34

Wind Power Has Been Used for a Long Time

US Wind Energy Outlook

Total U.S electricity generation in 2002: 3,800 billion kWh Total electricity potentially generated by wind: 11,000 billion kWh annually, three times the electricity generated in the U.S today.

USWindEnergyResources

WindEnergyProjectsintheU.S (6/30/2007)

25 States (+D.C.) with an RPS

Wind Turbines Can Be Large or Small

1.5 Megawatts

400 Watts
(on display in the lobby)

Skystream Residential Installation

A Modern Wind Turbine

Wind Powers Place

Important part of mix
Free fuel No emissions management

Maturing technology Cost competitive

Predictable at proven sites Low risk at proven sites

Fastest growing source Future looks bright

May 2003 desertskywind.com

Texas: #1 in Wind Power

Consider Our State. We Lead the US in Wind Power Production but it is still only about 3% of the annual electricity used. Texas has more renewable energy (wind + solar) potential than any other state.

Realistic targets are for the wind percentage to rise to 10% of electricity consumed.

Texas Wind Farms

No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Name Kunitz Big Spring Wind Farm Southwest Mesa Delaware Mountain Wind Farm West Texas Project Hueco Mountain Wind Ranch Indian Mesa Woodward Mountain Ranch Trent Mesa Desert Sky King Mountain Wind Ranch Llano Estacado Wind Ranch Sweetwater Wind Power Green Mtn. Energy Wind Farm at Brazos Aeolius Wind Callahan Divide Wind Farm Sweetwater Wind Power II Buffalo Gap Wind Farm Horse Hollow Wind Farm John Deere (3 Community-Owned Projects) Sweetwater Wind Power III Horse Hollow Wind Farm II Horse Hollow Wind Farm III Horse Hollow Wind Farm IV Red Canyon 1 Forest Creek Wind Farm Wolfe Flats Wind Farm Camp Springs Mesquite Wind Farm Sand Bluff Wind Farm Buffalo Gap II Wind Farm Sweetwater Wind Power IV Post Oak Wind Capricorn Ridge Wind Farm 1 Capricorn Ridge Wind Farm 2 Total Capacity (MW) 45 34 75 30 7 1 83 160 150 161 277 80 38 160 3 114 98 120 221 30 129 186 224 115 84 124 10 134 200 90 233 400 200 200 150 4,366

15 12 27
Whirlwind 60 MW Roscoe 209 MW Wild Horse 60 MW Snyder 63 MW Barton Chapel 120 MW

28 29 25 20 31 33 14 16 9 2 5 13 17, 21, 32 30 26 18 19, 22, 23 and 24 Orion Energy 175 MW 34 and 35 11 8 3 7 Wind 10 Goat 150 MW
Ocotillo 59 MW Stanton 101 MW

Silver Star 60 MW

Off-Shore Wind 150 MW

Gulf Wind I-III 400 MW each

Map as of 9-30-2007

Draft CREZ PUCT Designations

3720

Wind Zone

1, 2

Planned New Wind Capacity (MW) 4,560 3,720 2,890 5,215 2,051

4560

2051

5215

9, 10

1, 2 4

19

2890

5, 6

5, 6 9,10 19

Total

18,436

October, 2007

47

Potential Wind Resource

10600 12000 8300 9600

2700

4600

20
6200 6000

0m
2900

ile s

15

0m

ile s

Nearly 100,000 MW above 35% capacity factor (CF) Concentrated in western half of state Existing system from west Texas fully subscribed Significant distances and costs associated with adding bulk transmission

7900

6900

4700

2200

Currently approximate west to east transfer capacity 3,200MW

October, 2007

3000

48

A Typical Modern Wind Turbine is About 1.5 MW

About 100 wind turbines in a wind farm
330 ft 215 ft

Operate at 10 20 RPM, with wind speed range 8 56 MPH

115 ft My daughter Claire enjoying her family vacation to the Desert Sky Wind Farm in West Texas

Eastern New Mexico Wind Farm

Forest Creek Wind Farm Near Big Spring Siemens 2.3 MW Wind Turbines

52

Texas Offshore Wind Project

Galveston Off-Shore Wind
Announced in October, 2005 Located off-shore (Galveston Island) Located on leased state-owned land (managed by the Texas General Land Office) 150 MW capacity 3 MW turbines (50) 260 Hub Height (80 meters) 250 Rotor Diameter Commercial Operation Date: TBD
55

Location

Galveston Island

Site

10.36 miles Boundary of Texas lands

56

Texas Second Offshore Wind Project

Corpus Christi Project
Announced in May, 2006 Located about 10 miles offshore (near Baffin Bay, south of Corpus Christi) Located on leased stateowned land 39,900 acres (managed by the Texas General Land Office) 500 MW capacity Cost: $1 Billion to $2 Billion Commercial Operation Date: TBD (at least 4 years after construction begins)

57

Wind Turbine Technology Today

Several well-established global
manufacturers Mitsubishi (Japan) Suzlon (India) GE (US) Siemens (Germany) Vestas (Denmark) Gamesa (Spain)

Typical wind turbine specifications

Capacity: 2 to 3 MW (net) Hub Height: 80 to 90 meters Rotor Diameter: 90 to 100 meters

Typical costs: $1,500/kW to

$2,000/kW

Wind Turbine Nomenclature

Typical Parameters: Hub Height = 80 meters Rotor Diameter = 88 meters Swept Area = 6,082 sq. meters Cut-in Windspeed = 4 m/s Rated Windspeed = 14 m/s Cut-out Windspeed = 25 m/s

59

Inside Nacelle

Source: GE Wind

60

GE Wind 1.5 Operation

Operates in 8-56 MPH wind Electronically controlled, Remotely monitored Each turbine self-contained independent power plant Onboard weather station, Yaw control facing wind Variable speed via blade pitch Operates at 10-20 RPM Rotor/blade assembly, Generator speeds 850 to 1440 RPM
May 2003 desertskywind.com

Comparative Heights of the Wind Turbines

Feet
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Carter 300 (300 kW) Vestas V47 (660 kW) Statue of Liberty Suzlon S88 (2.1 MW) Total Height : 89 meters (290 feet) Rotor Diameter: 47 meters (154 feet) Hub Height: 65 meters (213 ft) Total Height: 200 feet Rotor Diameter: 79 feet Hub Height: 160 ft Total Height: 133 meters (433 feet) Rotor Diameter: 88 meters (289 feet) Hub Height: 80 meters (263 ft)

62

GE Wind Turbines
GE W I N D - 3.6 Offshore

Main Data:
- Tower options: - Rotor diameter: - Generator capacity: - Control: - Rotor speed: - Swept area:

100 - 140m (328 to 459 ft) 104 m (341 ft) 3600 kW Pitch
8.5 15.5 Rpm

7854 m2

Boeing 747-200

Issues Facing Wind Generation

Timing of Production Impact on Grid Operations Transmission Congestion Environmental and Social Impacts
65

Impact on Grid Operations

Voltage support Reactive compensation Responsive Reserves Grid Stability

Wind Data

Sample Generator Output Series (Site in McCamey Area)

100 90 80 U nit O utput (M W ) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1-Jan 6-Jan 11-Jan 16-Jan Date 21-Jan 26-Jan

June 9, 2006

67

EECP Communications

Timing of Production

16,000

Wind Farm Production (MWh)

14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Actual

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

68

Summer Peak Month Coincidence

Average Hourly Profiles - August 2000
TXU Load
24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Wind Project Output

20,993 MW

24 22 20 18 16 14 12

Capacity Value at Peak = 10.9% 3.7 MW

10 8 6 4 2 0

Hour

Wind Project Output (MW)

TXU Load (MW)

69

O&M - Planned Maintenance

Semi-annual routine planned maintenance Lubrication, yaw and pitch system, generator, gearbox filter inspections Drive train alignment Blade zero adjustments Wind vane/anemometer checks Converter cleaning and testing Cleaning and inspection of nacelle and tower equipment
Note: Each turbine requires about 20 hours of planned maintenance per year, generally split between low wind periods in spring & fall.
May 2003

O&M - Routine Corrective Maintenance

About 6 O&M Technicians are fully engaged in correcting daily turbine issues (about 75% of time spent troubleshooting and 25% repairing) Most common turbine technical problems are associated with pitch system and converter (instrumentation and electronics).
Note: The most difficult issue currently facing wind power system owners is probably the shortage of qualified technicians. Given that many technical tasks occur in the nacelle, the work is physically demanding as it requires climbing. Although pay is reasonable as compared to market, potential employees seem to be increasingly difficult to locate. Retention is also a problem, probably due to physical demands.
May 2003

O&M - Non-Routine Corrective Maintenance

Blade repairs, lightning damage & leading edge erosion.
Blade inspections and repairs are completed annually. About 25 lightning related repairs per year. Since commissioning, three blades have required replacement due to lightning damage.

Gearbox failures and subsequent replacement.

Gearbox life cycle appears to be 5-8 years.
Note: The repairs mentioned above require two cranes, a large 300 ton crane and a smaller 100 ton crane. Crane availability and expense are serious issues facing wind farm owners. Demand for crane service is currently outpacing availability.
May 2003

Performance Monitoring
Power Curve
1600

P o w e rC u rv e
1 6 0 0

1400

Reference Actual Power

1 4 0 0

1200

1 2 0 0

1000

1 0 0 0

800

8 0 0

600

6 0 0

400

Power curve for turbine with improper blade zero setting

4 0 0

Power curve for turbine with improper wind vane alignment

200

2 0 0

May 2003

Solar

Solar Will Most Likely Be Integrated as Grid-Tied Panels on Rooftops, Instead of in Large Solar Farms

Solar monitor (on display in the lobby) records solar radiation data

Solar electricity is still expensive compared to wind and grid prices, but the future looks good

Distributed Energy

Distributed generation: Small power source located near the user

Concentrating Solar Power

Trough Tower

Solar concentration allows tailored design approaches

Dish

CPV

Photovoltaics
PV panels

PV roofing shingles

4 Times Square, New York City Mauna Lani Hotel in Hawaii

Global Photovoltaic Market Demand Through 2010 (MW)

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

2000

2001

2002
Germany

2003
Rest of Europe

2004
Japan

2005
Rest of Asia

2006

2007

2008
Rest of World

2009

2010

United States

Source: Solar Today, 2007

79 HelioVolt Corp 2007

Price decline of Modules

Residential PV System

Residential Pole Mount System

3.5kW Pole Mounted PV System

Austin Convention Center

188 Panels 60 Watts each Amorphous Silicon Two Trace Inverters

Airport - Taxi Staging Area

Electrical Properties of a Solar Cell

Photons

Junction

n-type p-type I

V +

External circuit (e.g., battery, lights)

 36 Cells in Series Make a 12V-Class Panel (Voc 19V)

9 cells x 4 cells is a common configuration

Two 12V-Class Panels in Series Make a 24V-Class Array (Voc 38V)

I-V Curve
Isc

I (V ) = 5.34 0.00524 e 0.1777V 1

PV Station 13, Bright Sun, Dec. 6, 2002
6

)
Pmax at approx. 30V Pmax 0.7 Voc Isc

Isc
I - amps

5 4 3 2 1 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

V(panel) - volts

Voc

The Maximum Power Point

PV Station 13, Bright Sun, Dec. 6, 2002
140.0 120.0

Pmax

P(panel) - watts

100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0

P=0 at short circuit

0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

P=0 at open circuit

40 45

V(panel) - volts

On a good solar day in Austin, you get about 1kWh per square meter of solar panels (corresponds to about 150W rated)

Where is the Sun?

Up (?z axis)
zenith sun

Line perpendicular to horizontal plane Horizontal plane

East (y axis)

azimuth sun

West

North (x axis)

Note because of magnetic declination, a compass in Austin points approximately 6 east of north.

Figure 4. Sun Zenith and Azimuth Angles

Sun Moves from Summer to Winter

Solar Zenith versus Azimuth at Austin 22nd Day of Jun, Jly, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec
(Sun hrs/day. Jun=13.9,Jly=13.6,Aug=12.8,Sep=12.0,Oct=11.0,Nov=10.3,Dec=10.0) Azimuth (South = 180) 0 0 10 Zenith (Degrees from Vertical) 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

Jun Sep Dec

Sun Moves From Winter to Summer

Solar Zenith versus Azimuth at Austin 22nd Day of Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun
(Sun hrs/day. Dec=10.0,Jan=10.3,Feb=11.0,Mar=12.0,Apr=12.8,May=13.6,Jun=13.9) Azimuth (South = 180) 0 0 10 Zenith (Degrees from Vertical) 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

Jun Mar

Dec

Panel Orientation is Important

tilt panel
Line perpendicular to horizontal plane Line perpendicular to panel surface Edge of panel

tilt panel
Figure 6. Panel Tilt Angle

Horizontal plane

Best all-year tilt = Latitude Best winter tilt = Latitude + 15 Best summer tilt = Latitude 15

Solar Radiation Monitors

Rotating Shadowband Pyranometers Measure GH and DH

GH (Global Horizontal W/m2): Sensor points straight up, sees entire sky, including sun disk DH (Diffuse Horizontal W/m2): Once per minute, band quickly swings over, shadow falls on sensor. Then, sensor sees entire sky, less sun disk.

NREL Sci Tec Two-Axis Tracker Measures DN, GH, and DH

DN (Direct Normal W/m2): Tracking device points toward sun and sees only the sun disk

Computing Incident Power, cont.

The incident solar radiation, in kW, on a panel surface is approximated by
Measured sky on shadowed horizontal sensor (excludes disk of sun) Est. disk of sun component on sensor pointed toward sun
About 14% is converted to electricity

(GH DH ) cos( incident ) A panel Pincident = DH + zenith cos( sun )

Est. disk of sun component on panel surface

Est. Watts on panel surface

Multiply by surface area

The Clean Energy Future

Bio fuels Plug-in H2

Fossil Fuels

Nuclear

Solar

Wind

Distributed Utility

Zero Energy Home

The Clean Energy Future

Plug-in Hybrid Power Train

Modest Electric Range Large Impact

Plugging In Improves Equivalent Fuel Economy

Comparative Co2 Emissions

Technology-Based Solutions:
There is no single or simple answer. Energy efficiency Renewable energy Nonpolluting transportation fuels Transition to smart, resilient, distributed energy systems

Meet the Future. Today, Electrical and Computer Engineering Students are Eager to Learn About Renewable Energy and Conservation.

Renewable Energy is a perfect challenge for todays environmentallyminded students, both graduate and undergraduate