RESEARCH TEAM

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

DIRECTION

TIMEFRAME S-TERM S-TERM S-TERM S-TERM S-TERM M-TERM S-TERM S-TERM M-TERM S-TERM S-TERM S-TERM

STRATEGY / POSITION

ENTRY LEVELS

OBJECTIVE / COMMENTS Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal.

STOP

ENTERED

EUR / USD GBP / USD USD / JPY USD / CHF USD / CAD AUD / USD GBP / JPY EUR / JPY EUR / GBP EUR / CHF GOLD (in USD) SILVER (in USD)

Long 2

172.03

Sell 1 unit at 174.49, remaining at 179.85 Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal.

170.95

06/03/2014

Long 3 units

1.2329

1.2660/1.2985/1.3195 Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal.

1.1998

23/01/2013

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014

EUR / USD

Failing to hold above the key resistance at 1.3893.

EUR/USD has thus far failed to hold above the strong resistance at 1.3893. Hourly supports can be found at 1.3825 (28/02/2014 high) and 1.3708 (05/03/2014 low, see also the rising channel). In the medium-term, the potential ascending triangle formation hints at further upside potential towards 1.4368. A key resistance lies at 1.4247 (27/10/2011 high). A break of the support at 1.3643 is needed to invalidate the current medium-term bullish bias.

Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch

Await fresh signal.

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014

GBP / USD

Weakening.

GBP/USD weakened yesterday, confirming persisting selling pressures. An hourly support lies at 1.6617, while a key support stands at 1.6584. An hourly resistance now stands at 1.6686 (previous support). A break of the key resistance at 1.6823 is needed to resume the underlying uptrend. In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bullish bias as long as the support at 1.6220 (17/12/2013 low) holds. The decisive break of the resistance at 1.6668 opens the way for a move towards the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high). However, a sustainable move above that level is unlikely in the next few weeks.

Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch

Await fresh signal.

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014

USD / JPY

Digesting its recent rise.

USD/JPY is likely digesting its recent sharp rise. An hourly resistance lies at 103.76, whereas an hourly support can be found at 102.61. A further medium-term rise towards the resistance at 104.92 (16/01/2014 high) is favoured. A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support area given by the 200 day moving average (around 100.26) and 99.57 (see also the rising trendline from the 93.79 low (13/06/2013)) holds. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch

Await fresh signal.

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014

USD / CHF

Trying to bounce.

USD/CHF is trying to bounce. However, the short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 0.8816 (07/03/2014 high). Another resistance stands at 0.8896 (05/03/2014 high, see also the declining trendline). An hourly support now lies at 0.8757. From a longer term perspective, the structure present since 0.9972 (24/07/2012) is seen as a large corrective phase. However, the break of the key support at 0.8800 (27/12/2013 low) opens the way for a further decline towards the next key support at 0.8568 (27/10/2011 low).

Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch

Await fresh signal.

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014

USD / CAD

Symmetrical triangle likely underway.

USD/CAD is likely moving within a symmetrical triangle, favouring a continuation of the underlying uptrend. Hourly supports stand at 1.1071 and 1.1046 (06/03/2014 high). Hourly resistances can be found at 1.1160 (27/02/2014 high) and 1.1194 (21/02/2014 high). In the longer term, the decisive break of the major resistance at 1.0870 validates a multi-year basing formation whose minimum upside potential is around 1.1910. A first resistance is given by the 50% retracement of the decline from the September 2009 peak at 1.3065 (around 1.1236). A key support stands at 1.0911 (19/02/2014 low).

Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch

Await fresh signal.

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014

AUD / USD

Monitor the key resistance at 0.9168.

AUD/USD suffered a bout of selling pressure near the key resistance area between 0.9086 and 0.9168. The hourly support at 0.9007 (intraday low) has held thus far. An initial resistance can be found at 0.9073 (intraday high). Another support lies at 0.8891. In the medium-term, a decisive break above the resistance at 0.9086 would validate a bullish head and shoulders formation. The upside potential is given by 0.9312. The long-term technical pattern remains negative as long as prices are below the resistance at 0.9168 (02/12/2013 high, see also the 200 day moving average).

Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch

Await fresh signal.

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014

GBP / JPY

Fading near the resistance at 173.66.

GBP/JPY has thus far failed to break the resistance at 173.66. The hourly support at 171.67 has been breached. Another support lies at 170.99. As long as this level holds, we favour a second medium-term leg higher towards the key resistance at 174.85. The break of the major resistance at 163.09 calls for further long-term strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The longterm technical structure remains supportive as long as the key low at 160.41 (19/11/2013 low) holds.

Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch

Long 2 at 172.03, Obj: Sell 1 unit at 174.49, remaining at 179.85, Stop: 170.95 (Entered: 2014-03-06)
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014

EUR / JPY

Pausing.

EUR/JPY is pausing after its bullish breakout of the key resistance at 143.17. An hourly support can be found at 142.44. Another support is at 141.26 (previous resistance), whereas another resistance lies at 145.17. The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low, see also the 200 day moving average) holds. Resistances can be found at 147.04 (16/09/2008 low) and 157.00 (08/09/2008 high).

Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch

Await fresh signal.

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014

EUR / GBP

The long-term declining trendline has been broken.

EUR/GBP continues to improve, as can be seen by the break of its long-term declining trendline. Monitor the test of the key resistance at 0.8350, as a break would call for further medium-term strength. A support stands at 0.8263 (intraday low). Another resistance can be found at 0.8405 (25/12/2013 high). In the longer term, the technical structure remains negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 0.8350 (13/01/2014 high). However, monitor the potential base formation near the support implied by the 61.8% retracement (of the 2012-2013 rise) at 0.8160. Another key resistance stands at 0.8464 (13/11/2013 high).

Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch

Await fresh signal.

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014

EUR / CHF

Weakening near the key resistance at 1.2218.

EUR/CHF's bounce has failed to break the key resistance at 1.2218 (see also the 38.2% retracement), confirming persistent selling pressures. An initial support now lies at 1.2155. Another support can be found at 1.2104. In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term. As a result, the medium to long-term risk/reward ratio looks more favourable for a long position.

Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014

GOLD (in USD)

Moving sideways.

Gold prices are overextended and close to the key resistance at 1362, calling for short-term caution. However, the hourly support at 1331 (see also the short-term rising trendline) has held thus far. An hourly resistance stands at 1355. A key support lies at 1307 (20/02/2014 low). Longer term, the successful test of the key support at 1181 coupled with the break of the resistance implied by the 200 day moving average are positive. However, we are skeptical of a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, we remain cautious given the current overextended rise.

Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch

Await fresh signal.

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 March 2014

SILVER (in USD)

Tiny bullish head and shoulders underway?

Silver is moving within a declining channel. However, monitor the hourly resistance at 21.04 (10/03/2014 low), as a tiny bullish head and shoulders could be underway with an implied upside potential at 21.48. Another resistance stands at 21.72. An hourly support now lies at 20.61 (10/03/2014 low). In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the potential higher low at 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.52 suggest a phase of stabilisation. A key resistance now stands at 23.09.

Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch

Await fresh signal.

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