China’s International Trade Fair and Vietnam Carlyle A. Thayer October 15, 2009 [client name deleted]: QUESTION: The Vietnamese Prime Minister will visit China from October 15th to 17th, to "attend an international fair in Chengdu, Sichuan province, China and visit the province and Chongqing city", at the invitation of the government of China and the authorities of Sichuan province and Chongqing city. What is your assessment on this visit? Is it a way to reassure China after some problems concerning claims to maritime territory under the UN Law of the Sea Treaty, the opposition to the fishing ban imposed by China in waters near the Paracels and the Spratlys, and especially an increasing anti‐China sentiment in VN? Is there anything related to political situation in VN where the government tried to silence anti‐China protests or the reportedly 50 billions of dollars handling by China to Vietnam to deal with the crisis? Can we say that this visit of Nguyen Tan Dung in China is part of a diplomatic offensive often used by VN, with the troika dispatched to different countries (before Nguyen Tan Dung, Nong Duc Manh has gone to Australia (and NZ) and Nguyen Minh Triet to New York)? ANSWER: The main economic issue between China and Vietnam is the huge trade imbalance in favour of China, over US $9 billion, and the low level of Chinese investment in Vietnam. Vietnam has been trying for years to increase its market access and to encourage Chinese investment. In the midst of the global financial crisis, Vietnam needs to keep its market with China stable. The visit of Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung is primarily aimed at promoting cross border trade. Vietnam’s strategy is to develop its ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ with Beijing and be careful not to allow any single irritant or issue to hold the larger bilateral relationship hostage. The Prime Minister’s visit reinforces this strategy. It will reassure the Chinese that multilateral cooperation will continue. Of course events like this one provide an opportunity for leaders to meet and hold informal discussions. But China and Vietnam have other more effective mechanisms to deal with their disputes in the South China Sea including overlapping territorial claims and China’s unilateral fishing ban. But these issues are not the main purpose of Prime Minister Dung’s visit. When Vietnam launches a diplomatic offensive with the major powers, its leaders go to their capital cities.