The Role of Statistics and the Statistician Author(s): Lynne Billard Source: The American Statistician, Vol.

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General
The Role of Statistics and theStatistician
Lynne BILLARD
we can tracethe emergence of theory in otherdisciplines, suchas demography. We can tracecertain typesof statistics. "Do (workers elsewhere) immediately embracethe statisti- We could eventrack thePresidential addresses. As an aside, cal method as an integral threadin thefabricof theirown it is interesting to notethatin our first 70 years,there were and decision makingventures, enterprises or have we be- just fiveASA Presidents each holding office formanyyears come isolatedand irrelevant?" Set againstthebackdropof untildeath.Then, it was decided to includea Presidential ASA's first of writers, century we attempt to cast a critical Addressat theAssociation'sannualmeetings, thefirst to be and the role of the statistician, delivered eye at therole of statistics in January by Wright 1908. Whereupon (suchwas bothin itspractice andpreparation and in thetraining of the its tollperhaps)withPresident Wright's passing,there thus practitioner forthe nextcentury. This includesaddressing began the first of subsequentone-yearpresidential terms therole of theAssociationand theprofession. starting withNorthin 1910. Northin December of 1908 (or was it Wright'saddress delivered by North?It is hardto tell; see North1909) took the to task. North spoke of the "organized membership It is important, indeed past time,thatwe pause, as inthisold and honorable movement to bring organization out dividualsand as a profession, to ponderthe role of our of therutof mereexistence and intothestrenuous activities statistics profession together withour role as statisticians of today."He was speakingat the end of the first decade in itspractice and in itstraining andpreparation as we move of the 1900s whenJASApublications had become more a intothe21st Century. Let us do thisby drawing upon our catalogue of routinestatistical in contrast reports, to the ourthinking to direct aboutthepathsthat lie ahead. vibrancy heritage of the 1890s duringwhich therewere considerThereare manypossiblestarting pointswhenseekingthe able theoretical developments (in the fieldof application). past as a springboard for whatever future perspective we We had lostourway and had becomemoribund. We runthe seek. My remarks evolve froma readingof Journalof the same dangers today-instead of tablesof dataperfunctorily American Statistical Association(JASA)volumescovering presented, our publications are at timesbeset on seemingly quite removedfromthe substantive the first 100 years of our history 1839-1939. From these, esotericmathematics it is quiteevident thatASA's focuswas squarelyplaced on field.Northasked the societal problemsof the day. We analyzed and inter- Whatcan be done-what oughtto be done-to maketheAmerican Statissocial sciences, ticalAssociationa vital,predominating preteddata to draw conclusionsregarding thedirections forcein determining science shall advance ... ? politicalscience,healthsciences,economics,government, in whichstatistical and so on, with new statistical history, theorydeveloped ourjournal articlesbecame moresubstantial Soon after, only in orderto defineor to directbetteranalysesin the again, withtheoretical fieldsinresultsin all substantive substantive application.Would we describeourselvesthis cludingmathematical Of course,it is likelythe statistics. way today?And if not,whynot?We need to ask ourselves exigenciesbroughton by World War I also contributed. if our primary concernsare in dealing withthe problems North'scall to actioncan be our call to action,as we too in healthcare, engageourtalents, of today,1990-2020 say,such as, problems ourscience,and ourexpertise to address the environment, and so on. law, technology, theproblems of theday. There were articlesthatwere as serious as theywere There are many"histories" thatcan be gleaned froma papers. of dull, always balanced by serious but fascinating readingof thesejournals.We can tracethedevelopment We numerous specific techniques-regression, forexample-or Then, therewere those which today seem frivolous. read Winslow's(1906) reviewof a book "Mentaland Moral Adams Woods,in which in Royalty" Heredity by Frederick of Statistics, Uni- we learnthat832 members LynneBillard is University Professor, Department of thereigning familiesin Euof Georgia,Athens, GA 30602-1952 (E-mail:lynne@stat.uga.edu). versity intotengradesformental rope wereclassified qualitiesand This articleis based on the luncheonaddressdeliveredat the annualFall TechnicalConference in Scottsdale,AZ, on October25, 1996. The Fall ten gradesformoralqualities.Woods obtainedan "imporbetweenmentaland moral traitsabout .3 TechnicalConference is cosponsoredby the Sectionon Physicaland En- tantcorrelation Associationand the as workedout by thePearsonmethod... (about) the same Sciences (SPES) of theAmerican Statistical gineering Chemicaland Process Industries and Statistics Divisionsof theAmerican He betweenstrength of pull and weight." as thecorrelation Society for Quality.My thanksare extendedto Karen Jensen, Program correlation betweenmoralqualitiesand the a distinct such a found and assistancein makingmyparticipation Chair,fortheinvitation adultlife-"a hopeful of offspring number pleasantexperience. reaching signfor
( 1998 Amiiericani Statistical Association The Americanz 1998, Vol.52, No. 4 Statisticiacn, Novemizber 319

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Names in England, 1571-1622 Table 1. Christian John Thomas, William, Richard, Robert Edward, Henry, George, Francis, James, Nicholas, Edmund, 3826 2777 2546 1691 1222 957 908 647 447 424 326 298 times,or about
"" "" "" ""

frivolous of the seemingly Perhapsthe mostinteresting namesin on Christian is theentry withthestatistics entries in theyears a totalof about30,000 registered Englandfrom because these are similar 1571-1622 (Table 1), intriguing fortoday statistics of the corresponding to my perception 400 yearslater(see Miscellany1890). stories buriedin ourhisare manyinteresting Well,there toricalannals. Ratherthanpast roles, I want to focus on and of thestatistician today.While our therole of statistics it and future, perhapsonlyconcernis the present greatest, are as applihow muchof our earlywritings is remarkable a together Indeed,it is possibleto craft cable todayas then. of whatourroles shouldbe forthe21st Century, rendering of our members quotes and viewpoints by piecingtogether of a century ago.

his mustturn to whichthe statistician of problems Probablythe majority betweenthosein whichthe somewhat intermediate are in reality attention at least to be applied is clear and thosein whichno technique, technique no-man'sland, is advisable.In thismethodological sort, of a mathematical mustdo the best he can. He may have to develop a new the statistician "" a and foremost technique;in thatcase he has two chief reliances,first "" in whichhe has to withthefieldof activity sound and wide acquaintance because it is from background, operate,and second a good mathematical are developed;butif choice mustbe made between thatthatall techniques I should with mathematics, with his subject and familiarity in familiarity thefuture of therace,"he says!-as well as correlations horse and all too is a queer the Mathematics former. prefer unhesitatingly and likewisefor and offspring; powersof parent intellectual in easily runs always withits rider;and thenthereis such a satisfaction we may think today,thisarticle trying moralqualities.Whatever its variousgaitsin all sortsof roads thatmanya riderhas gone off was all seriousnessand was viewed as a very significant in almosttheoppositedirection thepathhe shouldhave followed.In from he mayhave ridden problem, his pursuit of thesolutionto some scientific to biology. contribution goal. over his solutionto some purelyfantastic right

"" ""

12.8 9.3 8.5 5.6 4.1 8.2 3.0 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.0

per cent.

My own beat theotherextreme. deviations, and standard lief is thatall stationsalong this axis are valid, withthe what stationshouldbe used applicationdriving particular on any given occasion. Wilson (1930) in his 1929 Presiand dentialAddressin discussingthe role of mathematics said it as well as anyonewhenhe explained: statistics,

Wilson goes on
mathematics correct applied is useful, appropriate, Whatwe need to foster or not theyhave reached .. . whether scientific problems, to worth-while is helpful. use of mathematics thestage whereanyconsiderable

applytodaybutwithcomputer-based These same thoughts added to thoseof mathematics. methods of our Associationin 1914 coinThe 75th anniversary cided withthe 191Os when the doors were opened to the of thenew component methodas an integral mathematical so muchof ourdiscidefined whichmethodology statistics, years-much in thesame way I believe plinein subsequent methodwill defineit in the decades the computer-based 75 years,and equally so the first ahead. However,the first in otherways too. Dur100 years,were quite distinctive of ourselvesas social scientists ing thattime,we thought 1. WHAT IS STATISTICS? with we wereconcerned More specifically, defined. broadly In the history of science of the hu- theuse of statistics of What is statistics? as a meansforsolvingtheproblems can make a claim as both one of society. man endeavor, statistics In thoseearlyyears,such problems(at least as far on focusedprimarily the newestand oldest of the sciences. Set againsta back- as ourjournal articlestell the story) theconcepts sociology, Over a no sciencebeganuntilmanmastered dropthat economics, politicalscience,and history. and weighting, thensince periodoftime, measuring, and artsof counting, medicalstatistics (and latertoday'sbiostatisscience, tics and biometry) it mustbe said thatright these conceptsare the veryessence of statistical evolvedthough was paid to health attention we can claim our science to be one of the oldest.Further- from considerable ourinception with more,Kopf (see King 1936) "indicatedthatthe life tables matters, especiallydiseases,oftenby thoseconcerned of the popuof AugustusCaesar's day were improving and livingconditions devisedby thestatisticians the working was in ascertaining applied in Italy for (about) a thousandyears." lation,and/orby those whose interest practically sizes. Likewise,as we In 1693, Halley (of Halley's cometfame;Halley 1693; see birth and deathratesand population in to construct became moreindustrialized, emerged industrial statistics Lancaster1994, p. 63) is creditedas the first statishereevolvedtoday'sindustrial life tablesbased on data. Thus, our science reallyis quite abundance, and from old age-wise.On theother hand,Willcox (1910) statedthat tician in much the same way as occurredin otherareas. in this Whatever therewas the persistent is not yet established "The workof the statistician the backdrop, however, role to play in solvas career." He a major and a had as a insistence that statistics opined hardly profession country mustremain and that thestatistician that"the outlookforstatistics dependsmainlyon the atti- ing society'sproblems, of the thecondition factsrepresenting towardsthe subject,"to whichwe "versedin classified tudeof the government administeris task of in His the planning, and academia. a state. would add industry people to the servicesessential theintelligence debate about mathematical ing and interpreting There is the never-ending of theGreatSocietyof today"(Mills 1935). withthe pure theoretically working and applied statistics, statistics Beyond the art of analyzingand So, what is statistics? comand theroutine at one extreme statistics mathematical can una way thatthe nonspecialist data in interpreting mean with possibly tables, of statistical putation standar^d
320 Genesral

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derstand, any definition becomes the captiveof one's use and thenconRortyproceedsto develophis hypothesis and applicationarea. For statistical methodshave evolved cludes: from thesubstantive discipline, and perforce mustvaryacto subjectmatter-medicine, of a direct concording engineering, physical It is thischecking of circumstantial evidenceby theforcing be describedas the culprit thatmay properly sciences,pharmacy, government, and so on. Indeed,a simi- fessionfromthe statistical sentimenthird degree.And no professional application of the statistical lar list was spelledout by Ogburn(1932) whenadvocating talism of thepossibilities a fulldevelopment shouldbe allowed to prevent thatthe ASA "expand in such a way as to sweep more of thisprocedure. amongscientific The statistician, as thechiefpathfinder fertility, combinethatvisionwhichcomesfrom mustnecessarily and moredifferent subjectsintoits orbit." We observethat pioneers, withthebalance and surenessof of hypothesis, and incisiveness soon thereafter Sectionsemerged as partof theASA infras- breadth, methodas a whole. But, above all, he mustpossess step of the scientific tructure. If I may distort one of Ogburn'spictures, just as something and mustseek his results of thefrontiersman of therudespirit different artists will paint scenes withtheirown interpre- in everylegitimate of methodand rigidity way,regardless of refinements so do different tation, subjectmatter experts have different of conventions. statistical tools on theirpalette;yet all producea product The idea thatwe don the mantleof being a statistical in harmony withthereality beingdescribed. Back to whatis statistics? And our 75thanniversary. To SherlockHolmes is verycompelling. celebrate thatoccasion, a number of articleson "Statistics 3. EDUCATION AND TRAINING in ... business, economics,sociology, government, biology, ..." were published.These were all veryfaslaw, history, of educating and trainingfuture The responsibilities The articlesand provideinteresting ourhistory. cinating readingfor those statisticians ringloud and clearthroughout inclined. The mostintriguing though is theone on the ser- passionate FlorenceNightingale, to whomstatisstatistician were as a religiousexercise, method vice of statistics to history by Hull (1914). Amonghis many tics and the statistical he stated to a British official that"What we want quotablecontributions, wroteimploringly not at present) an accumula(or at least is not so much In the addressput forth esby the Associationat the period of its first the its spokesman, thepolygraphic Edwardsof theAn- tion of facts,as to teach men who governthe country tablishment, Professor doverTheologicalSeminary, as "theascertaining and use of statistical had defined statistics profacts";see Kopf (1916). She further of thosefactswhichare fitted theconditions bringing together to illustrate in applied or lecturership posed to founda professorship and prospects of society." It followedthat"everysubjectin truth forms a we today thatour positively say statistics at Oxford. Can and he naturally concludedthatthelaborsof theAssocipartof statistics" or do method, ationshouldprove"of inestimable value to thefuture historian in ourown nationalleaders are versedin the statistical and otherlands"; "Statistics is history in a stateof progression, statistics we need a modern to speak again? dayFlorenceNightingale are history at a stand";and "since thesubjectmatter of statistics is largely We shouldbe thosespeakers, of course! social and economic,thefuture ... mustmake largerand larger historian our literature The clarioncalls throughout tendedto foluse of thestatistics thatare and of the statistics thatare to be." werethat Earlyon, thecalls typically low thesame themes. Finally,earlierWright, ASA President(1897-1909), had a course in statistics be a mandatory partof a degreeprothepremise that"history is past statistics, statistics gramin politicalscience,in economics,or whatever. adopted Many is present as a partof ASA's creed(Wright history," 1908). commentsturnedon the demand for trainedstatisticians whilstnotingthe inadequacyin the qualityof thateduca2. WHAT IS A STATISTICIAN? spokeof thegap betweentheacademictraining tion;others the role of the statistician, Beforeaddressing let us ask and theneeds of theemployers. ourselves"What is a statistician?" No doubt we all have are long overdueforan programs Today,our educational thanwe might overhaul.Our statistics individual answerslikelyto be moredistinct that programs majors are entering thestatis- are remarkably realizethough we probably all includeminimally forthepast 40 odd similarto thoseoffered ticianas one who will analyze,who will draw inferences years,thoughpossiblysome new topics have been added. these data. How- Also, exposureto computer fromdata and thencewho will interpret packages has occurredso as or picture to ease the computational how manyof us have a definition ever,I wonder burdenof large data sets. This thatmatchesthatof Rorty(1931), who claims the statisti- assumes students are even exposed to real (i.e., not artifician oftensmall or concocted)data sets. Not cial and therefore a Sherlock Holmes of figures, who must work mainly, unnaturally, ...is, in effect, the trendhas been for programsto emulate or wholly, fromcircumstantial detective must the strongly evidence.So the statistical mathematical statistics programs theoretically learn to approacheach complicatedproblemfromas manyindependent itis my and While status which have visibility. enjoyed high of anglesas possibleand mustcombineand weighand balance theresults is an important firm beliefthatthere place forthisso-called thedifferent solutionsat whichhe arrives... emphasis-indeed I believe thatall pro"puretheoretical" In thisconnection the criminal not to be carried parallelis too tempting have some coursesand some faculty steeped should grams the trained will nevercompleteand pass final a stepfurther-for worker thatto counselforthedefense. in these areas-it is also my beliefwholeheartedly first judgment uponan analysiswithout appointing he will promptly In otherwords,after his proof, set to work, trainour students establishing it will be necesfor the 21st Century, in personor by capable proxy, to show thatthe whole demonstration, if theoretically based program saryforthe oftenexclusively it proves anything at all, leads to the exact opposite of the conclusions to move towardwhat we mightcall an "applied theoretioriginally announced... emphasis to remain viable, cal" and/or an "applied-applied" If thestatistician can learnthuswholeheartedly to wreckhis own fondest within my comments here is rather than the reverse. Buried hopes in themanner I have described, he will have takenhis first firm step in report writing whichincludes the need to trainstudents in the scientific pathway.
1998, Vol.52, No. 4 The American7 Statistician1, Nolvemaber 32]

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If we examrewriting the statistical conclusions in the languageof the ance across thesciences,arts,and humanities. clear and abundantly discipline/problem which createdthe data set. Likewise, ine theseclosely,it seems paramount or on data analysis,or statistics students shouldbe similarly trained in theoral presentation thata course on statistics, (notan option)courseof shouldbe a mandatory of the material. Time is of the essence. If we do not shift in society, Thus, those of us in academia have a our present job opportuni- this core curricula. emphases,we will quicklyfind course(s) here-to revampthe methods ties thatshouldbe filledby our graduateswill insteadbe dual responsibility filledby nonstatistical experts. we currently offer and worktowardhavingsuch a course general studies axis, as an integralpart of the undergraduates Regardlessof the emphasisalong the pure-applied See Billard (1994). a majorchangein thelandscaperelatesto computing skills. program. in statistiWe can drawan analogywiththedevelopments 4. OUR PUBLIC PERSONA cal sciencethatbegan 70-80 yearsago withthe "introducin theresearch tion"of mathematics as an essential toolfirst thatwe makethekindsof changesto Whileit is essential and related our educationalenterprises as indicatedabove, any course side (primarily the door of correlation through in the side withthe depth on "Statistics in Society"is but one routenecessary concepts)and laterin the instructional in our outreach of mathematics on the degreeto dissemination to the tratodayvarying depending of our discipline, mathematical ditionalnon-user of our science.The whichthemajoris more,or less, a theoretical as to the importance itis my problemis not new; let me draw upon Pidgin's (1890) restatistics forthe 1990s andbeyond, program. Today, a paper beliefthatthistraditional approachhas to be supplemented sponse to theAssociation'srequestthathe present of computational tools. Recentyears on thesubject"How to makestatistics popular"fora public by the "introduction" of a statisforanything and everything have seen research developments in, forexample,imaging, pathetically hungry and so on, which could tical nature.(It stillis today). neuralnets,resampling methods, was the without thecomputer. It is timeI believe avenue forpopulardissemination nothave occurred Pidgin's first he to bringintothe classroomcourses thatprovidethe grad- printing press (or today,the Web page). In particular, methods suggested intolines of statistical uate thetools to developcomputational thatcolumnsof tablesbe translated Justas we text,but notjust any text.To use his example,if he says and/orto use thosebeing developedby others. in mathematics calculus,lin- that23,459,103personsin Germany require prerequisites (typically outof 46,918,206have in blue eyes and flaxen ear algebra,and so on), so we should add prerequisites hair,theaudiencehas no idea of what science(e.g.,programming, butif he says 50% or halfhave algorithmic methods, impression computer he is conveying; skillsof whichwe speakhereare blue eyes and flaxenhair,thenthereis a statistical point etc.).These computational from as a biggerand better cal- whichshouldstaywiththem. distinct Thatis, percentages are easier usingthecomputer culatoreither or via statistical packages,a givenin to grasp.Along thesesame lines,graphical directly representations today'sworld. of tabulations areusuallyeasierforthereaderto understand Important as our statistics majorsassuredlyare, equally themessagebeingconveyed. theformat, concluWhatever are our introductory service courses offered to sionsand deductions so to be readeasily important shouldbe succinct, our nonmajors.As elaboratedin Billard (1997), we need by thebusycitizen. to approach these quite differently than is traditionally Newspaperswere suggestedas an incalculable service I believe we should develop courses (as are othercontemporary of done. In particular, media) in the dissemination in "Statisticsin Society" (or some such equivalent),that statistical information. Again, thereis a caveat-the jourinstillin students an appreciation rather than nalistis busy.Therefore, of statistics Pidgin suggestedthe statistician to teach them (but a few of thousandspossible) summarize the statistical resultsinto a few compactparaattempt and making it to be so "conspicuous specificmethods.That is, ratherthan the negativeimage graphs, bykindof type of a "hated" course,we should seek diligently to offer a or prominent positionthatthebusyeditorsees it and transwritten "beloved" course.We have squanderedthe golden oppor- fersit to thecolumnsof his paper."These abstracts handedto us to reach future leaders and lawmakers in popular formwould be sent to media outlets,writers, tunity these servicecourses especiallythose in the core speakers, through and so on. That is, generalstudiesprogram. popularby makingthemeasily attainBeforeleavingthe questionof the servicecourse,there ... thepurposeis to make statistics so thatthe activepushing able, to expressgreatfactsin shortsentences, is another to ponder.We are reminded of the Americancan read as he runsand remembers perspective whathe reads. dictum(attributed to H. G. Wells) that"statistical thinking will one day be as necessary forefficient statiscitizenship as the Pidgin concludedthatbe theyeditors,statisticians, "... all That tical publications, statistical abilityto read and to write"(or wordsto thateffect). bureaus,or whatever, that day has long come. To this,we add Schwartz' (1993) ex- dispensers of statistics mustsupplythemin such form hortation thatthe distinction betweenscientific truths and theywill catch the eye, appeal to the mind,and lingerin and testing hypotheses by data thememory." purescience(byestablishing gathering) has a central role in thebasic undergraduate eduWe do not wantto make our audience (or our serviceRather, cation.Furthermore, students) expertstatisticians. theprinciples upon whicha core gen- course-undergraduate eral studiesprogramis foundedstand on the premiseof we concurwithHuebner(1909) thatwe "seek to enablethe business,to better in publiclife or private broadening the students'vision of the worldaroundthem, laymanwhether to seek an inquiring mind, and so on,whilst achieving a bal- understand theresultsobtainedby the statisticians."
322 General

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(withASA and fectthis.Many such advisorycommittees in the last 8-10 agency memberships) were reestablished years.Koren (1913) and Gifford (1914) focusedon attracting all thoseengagedin statistical work;Parmalee(1915), all attested Willcox(1914), andWeber(1914), amongmany, Mitchell(1919) to theimportance of ourrole in thisregard. urged"theAssociationto play a moreactiverole in public affairs thanin the past,"and notingthatthe Association's of Commerce President had been asked by the Secretary 5. THE ROLE OF THE ASA of statisti"to advise theDirectorof theCensus on matters So, whereare we? We have looked at what constitutes cal principle and on the selectionof statistical experts," he statistics and what is a statistician. We have touchedon hoped thiswould forsagereal and lastingcooperation. We have also consideredaspects of how best to training. In contrast, today,it would seem we have lost our way, disseminate statistics and statistical responsibly sciences. Let us look or our voice, in guidingand in using statistics briefly at one finalaspect and thatis the role of the ASA in government, in society,in the workplace,the marketwe are starting to Perhaps,however, towardthesequestions.This is the one glaring hole in our place, and so forth. Associationtoday when we compareour relativepaucity recoverit. Early in 1996, we respondedto a requestfrom of efforts to reach the public comparedto the consider- Congress,specifically on Government the Subcommittee able efforts of the Governforat least the first Management, Information and Technology expendedby our members 100 years.Indeed,one could say,such efforts and concerns mentReformand Oversight Committee of the U.S. House were our centraland primary to testify on the Statistical Consolidafocus. The storyhere starts of Representatives, withthefounding of theAssociation.The ASA was estab- tionAct of 1995, H.R. 2521, knownas the Horn Bill. The lished specifically News providedextensive to wrestlewith issues surrounding the April and May issues of Amstat of thistestimony (see Billard1996a,b;Humm1996). nation'scensus taking, a ten-year eventdatingfrom1790. reports to an issue of a difOur Boston forefathers were disturbed Also in 1996, we began responding by the antiquated As partof its constitutional methods from1790 and stillplanned ferent essentially unchanged role,Congressis stripe. forthe 1840 census.Understandably, how the Census should be executed.Those of muchof theattention reviewing andjournalwritings of the 1800s wereconcentrated on the us-and I hope thatis mostof us!-who have paid attencensuses in some way-how theywere conducted,what tion have been disturbed by some recentassessmentsof If Congresswantsto information was to be sought,publicationof the result- fundamental statistical methodology. ing statistical tenetsforpoliticalpurposes,thatis tables,whatthe data revealed,and so forth. ignorebasic scientific Much of thiswas done by themembership. theywantto ignorethese prerogative. When,however, this their Throughout cannot the Association itselfsoughtto influence tenets because theybelievethestatistical time,however, profession and congressmen government urgingthemto implement agree on whatis or is not clear and establishedstatistical to speak up forthe proceduresand/orto enact legislationthatwould ensure science,thenwe have a responsibility in the qualityof statistics of our discipline(thisapartfromour concernsas improvement So criti- integrity gathered. in the in my capacityas President, cal was thisdeemedto be thatthenASA President Walker taxpayers). Therefore, a Blue RibbonPanel (comprised of the Washington StatisticalSo- Spring1996, I established urgedthe establishment Janet NorJohn in Washington could meet of John Neter, Rolph,Chair,WayneFuller, cietyin 1896 so thatmembers some to "promot(e)the discussionof statistical meth- wood,RichardRockwell,and Donald Rubin)to study regularly in particular as theypertained amongthe of thesemethods, resultsand statistical sampling, ods, statistical principles" withtheexto the2000 Census.The panel's report, together local body (see Walker1897). and its charge the list of panel members Perhapsthe mostvisibleoutcome,beyondthe recogniz- ecutivesummary, in thebasic principles able and substantial un- were sent on September3, 1996, to all membersof the improvement Affairs Commitand Government the census takingintroduced derlying by Walker,was the Senate Appropriations and Governmental Census Bureau. Until tees and of the House Appropriations 1902 bill to establisha permanent This maand Oversight and corre- Affairs amongothers. Committees, then,accordingto North(1908), coordination News. Let us lationof government statistics were impossiblebecause it terialappearedin theOctoberissue ofAmnstat that thepanelendorsed herewiththeobservation it. Northopinedthat be content was no bureau'srole to effect in the Census of 2000 and of the use statistical sampling No singlething, save only the requirement for a decennialcensus in the with FederalConstitution, has done so muchto promote thestudy and to perfect triedto assure Congressthat samplingis consistent the methods of statistics as thatlegislation, to whichCongressconsented prevailing sound statistical practice.As withall scientific withthe utmost reluctance and withmuchmisgiving. statistical changesovertime.Whatknowledge, knowledge we do have a proThe demand to maintain contacts with government ever might be our politicalpersuasions, to maintain theimportance of usingthe echoed through our pages. Mills (1935) eloquently expos- fessionalobligation techniques currently available. tulatedon the importance of the contactsbetweenstatis- best statistical The issue is stillunresolved. However,our report's existiciansand government, and thatit was the Association's responsibility to maintain attention. For examthesecontacts. He, together notinconsiderable with tencehas attracted in a Nationall article,Wired Rice, advocatedthe creation of advisory committees to ef- ple, it was mentioned Joulrnal
The Amereican1 1998, Vol.52, No. 4 Statisticiane, Novem7ber 323

Thatis, to paraphrase Storey(1914), thestatistician must understand themindof thepublicand of thereader; he must put himselfin thatreader's place and design his exhibit fromtheirstandpoint, not fromhis own. Too oftentoday, we neither createnortaketheopportunities presented to us to educate thenonstatistician. And when we do, we write our articles(beautifully perhaps)fora statistically literate audiencerather thanto thepublicforum we seek to reach.

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magazine,and in a November1996 Science articleon the Howencouraging. census and sampling.This is certainly ever,thereis muchmorewe could and shouldbe doing. look, receivedno morethana cursory Even if thereport It importance. is I believeof evengreater its veryexistence in thatour Associationexerciseits responsibility is critical sciuse of statistical the correctand appropriate ensuring this of society.Without crucialproblems ence in resolving uphill battlein public persona,we have an unnecessarily othersof the usefulrole we can play as partconvincing We have spenta lot of time own undertakings. nersof their those outsideour immedineglecting talking to ourselves, corrective to taketheappropriate ate ken.Let us determine as here,academia,indusWhether itbe government actions. and statisticians statistics wherever sector, or theprivate try, reside,it is the role and purposeof the ASA "to encourmethod" thepurposesof a scientific age theuse and perfect (Newcomb1909). of the conclusionof my Let me concludewithportions Chicago address(see Billard 1997).

(1996a), "StatheOSPA Committee) help from (withconsiderable on H.R. 2521,"Am1Act of 1995: BillardTestifies tisticalConsolidation statNews,230, 1, 3, 6. Amtstat on the Hill-A Personal Journey," (1996b), "Testifying News,231, 7-8. Statistical ofAmzericani Journ1al (1997), "A Voyage of Discovery," 92, 1-12. Associationi, Workand How It Statusof Statistical W. S. (1914), "The Present Gifford, Needs to be Developed in the Service of PrivateSocieties and OrganiAssociationl, 14, 116-121. Statistical Journ1al ofAmericani zations," Halley, E. (1693), "An Estimate of the Degrees of the Mortalityof Mankind,Drawn fromCurious Tables of the Birthsand Funerals at the Price of Annuto Ascertain the City of Breslau; Withan Attempt London,17, RoyalSociety itiesUpon Lives,"PhilosophicalTracnisactions 596-610, 654-656. StaJoutrn1al ofAm1ericani Huebner, G. G. (1909), "Teachingof Statistics," tistical Association,11, 516-518. ofAmerto History," Joutrnial Hull, C. H. (1914), "The Seriveof Statistics Association,14, 30-39. ican Statistical on HornBill,"Anstat M. J.(1996), "ASA, COPAFS, NABE Testify Humm, News,231, 5-6. our Gains,"JourntalofAmericanStaKing, W. I. (1936), "Consolidating tistical 31, 1-9. Associationi, of Journall Kopf, E. W. (1916), "Florence Nightingaleas Statistician," Statistical Associationi, 15, 388-404. Ame7rican cannot existbyitself. as a discipline Yet,withobviousexceptions Koren, J. (1913), "Our Coming Seventh-fifth Statistics of Jolurn1lal Anniversary," as an Associationhave and certainly of course,manyof us as individuals Statistical Association,13, 557-562. American of late withdrawn withinourselves.We have to ask: Are we addressing Lancaster, Medical Methodsin Biological an1d H. 0. (1994), Qluanititative to these theneeds of audiencesthatseek us out? Are we even connected Sciences,Springer-Verlag. practiceoccupied the minds Mills, F. C. (1935), "Statistics audiences?What constituted good statistical StaJournzalof Anmerican and Leviathan," serious members. Yet,to readourjournalstoday, of ournineteenth century 30, 1-11. Association, tistical butbywhat blareout,notbywhatis published, aboutourdestiny questions of Christian Names in EarlyTimes,"Journal Miscellany(1890), "Statistics is notpublished. Association, 2, 37-38. ofAmericanStatistical ofAmi1er-ican1 Jou;vial and Government," W. C. (1919), "Statistics Mitchell, We mustask ourselves Statistical Association,16, 223-235. of Amer-ican Remarks,"Jolurnal government managers,scientists Newcomb,H. T. (1909), "Introductory industrial Do public servants, officials, Statistical Association,11, 605-607. methodas an embracethe statistical of all persuasions, etc.,immediately Science in theUnited S. N. D. (1908), "The OutlookforStatistical and decisionmaking North, in thefabricof their own enterprises thread integral 11, 17-26. American Statistical Associationi, Journ-zal of States," or have we become isolatedand irrelevant? ventures, to Economics and Sociology," (1909), "The Relationof Statistics Statistical Association,11, 431-443. JoutiialofAmericani Of course,we wantto believe the answerto this is a reand Art," Statistical ofAmnericanl Jouern-al W. F. (1932), "Statistics Ogburn, and do embracestatistics sounding yes; yes, otherworkers 27, 1-8. Associationi, instead,we uncomfortably Parmalee,J. H. (1915), "Public Service Statisticsin the United States," do approachus. Unfortunately, is notalways-not as muchas we expect. admitthereality Statistical Association,14, 489-504. Journal ofAmerican ofAmerJoltrn1al Popular," the crucialrole Pidgin,C. F. (1890), "How to Make Statistics we ask: How do we reassert Therefore, icaniStatistical Association, 2, 107-115. we see forstatistics? Again,fromChicago, Method,"Joutrn1al of M. C. (1931), "Statisticsand the Scientific Rorty, Statistical Associationi, 26, 1-10. 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