Tomorrow's Spygames Author(s): Jack Devine Source: World Policy Journal, Vol. 25, No. 3 (Fall, 2008), pp.

141-151 Published by: The MIT Press and the World Policy Institute Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40210154 . Accessed: 18/03/2014 23:10
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Devine a career clandestine services the Central headed the Task Force Jack officer of Intelligence Agency, agency's Afghan as the CIA's director He is currently 1985-87,andserved Arkin from acting deputy ofoperations. president ofThe Group, a NewYork-based intelligence consulting firm.

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JackDevine

Tomorrow's Spygames

Economicintelligence In thisglobalizedand rapidly will increase in imchanging will be a as ofintelligence concern of businesses thefuture and world, portance top and nations. will remain marked tactical, Objectiveanalysis strategic, by significant paraintelligence sharing changeoverthenextquarter mount.Finally, among technological in allies will continue advances to be a vitalaspectof Near-unimaginable century. landthe will alter the process. intelligence technology faster access Sincetheearliest daysoftheAmerican driving scape,withinnovation and has been used to gain unique friends information to moreaccurate nation, spying by While theethicalchallenges of to thismorecomin response foes.Partly insights. and often make the interconnected environment, betrayal people deception plex, theseare critical facets of will enter uncomfortable, American community intelligence human collection endeavors. as various a periodofconsolidation intelligence agencies leadershaveat times undertheleadership Even our country's centralized arefurther discomfort. Former of A conofintelligence. ofa future Secretary expressed secretary L. Stimson once remarked: State with diverse casolidated Henry entity intelligence don'treadother ofa Cabinet- "Gentleman undertheleadership peoples'mail." pabilities, toA but not relevant noble somewhat and hopefully, levelauthority, thought, very in the turf thebureaucracy, from morefree battles, day sincethe reinsofpowerare rarely and since our adverhands of commuand politicsoftoday's gentlemen, intelligence aboutclandessarieshaveno compunction America's will enhance abilityto pronity, tine tectits interests. activities, including usingtechnology and Internet uncontrollable, to gain accessto telephone Despite theunavoidable, tidesofchange, communications. and at timesunpredictable In fact, and technological oftheintelligence several globalization keycomponents have a advances have as constant will remain business produced majorupswingin they all naactivities oforganized thehistory byvirtually society. intelligence throughout haveso manyintellitions.Neverbefore to rely agencieswill continue Intelligence well as individuals as into to on high-quality genceagencies agents gain insight and skill to sources had thetechnical ofenemies; theplansand intentions capability Adand information. monitor rewill stillhaveto be spotted, manipulate developed, will onlydeepenthe in thefield. and runby operators cruited vancingtechnology
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oftheintelligence element availableto peoplewho be a critical pool ofinformation well intothetwenty-first century. mightuse it to do harmor gain advantage. future The Internet has revolutionized already and Action Collection in waysthatare not collection intelligence Intelligence activithe well-known In additionto understood or appreciated. spying Virtually fully detailedbyJohnLe Carre unlimited accessto open-source intelligence tiesfictionally are realoperational there tradi- and Ian Fleming, has leveledtheplayingfieldbetween feats heroes whose and and has weak services, equallymatchthefictionally strong orJamesBond. To cite Bourne an into the tional Jason brought industry intelligence and thatshareinformation ofanalysts on a but one case,theAmerican, British, army haveall paid services real-time basis.The extraordinary accessibil- French intelligence to a heroicintellihas placed a signif- homagein recent years ityofpublic information WorldWar II era. the from informaicantpremium on non-public genceoperator in fluent tion or "intelligence" thatfillsin thevi- Virginia Hall, British by birth, to boot, and an avid game hunter data missingfrom theanaFrench, tallyimportant the leaders of the brave of was one of mosaic. This is the task organizalytical spying. to Nazi Gerresistance As we look overthehorizon to 2033, tionoftheFrench fora young suchactivity will remain Of course, a very robust business many. spying and bothin terms ofhumanand signalsintelli- womanin thesedayswas rare, risky, that she the fact this in in Add to terms more or recruitfamiliar, gence, courageous. of her one an who lost and was the comlegs in a ing spies amputee secretly intercepting and in munication ofadversaries. will the accident So, too, Turkey, youhave hunting ofimagery ofa truelegend.She parachutthemakings collection, practice usingsatelwithherartilitesto photographically and record ed intoNazi-occupiedFrance capture and ourenemies'activities overhershoulder and movements. ficialleg strapped Want"Most we will the continue to see strikwent on to become Nazi's Furthermore, in between modern technol- ed" resistance ing juxtapositions fighter France. Similarfeats ofdutyand daringwere ogyand theage old tacticsofintelligence collection. in in services' of us who allied Many intelligence participated replicated theAfghan the War in the 1980s are convinced morerecent in Afghanistan after efforts thatthe introduction with ofthe then"ultra-so- 9/11attacks U.S. when,along Special missilebrokethewill and a smallmilitary fieldoperators Forces, phisticated" Stinger oftheRussiansand led to theirretreat theTalibanleaderfrom contingent demolished Some even that in a matter the and forces ofdays.That use Afghanistan. argue ship ofthistechnology and it was thestrawthatbroke heroism is yetto be fully recorded, thecamels back,leadingto the laterfallof will be evenlongerbefore thedetailsaredetheSovietUnion entirely. It is interesting to classified and made availableto thepublic. thatthesehigh-tech bold actionslike thesewill be note,however, weapons Nonetheless, weretransported acrosstheruggedterritory required our community by intelligence China. Remember, well intothefuture. by mulesherdedfrom It is also worth lesser too,thatthoughtheAfghan mujaheddin mentioning weretoughand determined known such as ecoactivities, fighters, very intelligence fewofthemhad formal will nomic and which military training. counterintelligence, The abilityto adapt newtechnologies in theintellifor a constant likewiseremain use in placeswheretransport and otherinand gencelandscapeforthenext25 years frastructure is non-existent will continue to beyond. The Office ofNaoftheDirector
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thatcortionalIntelligence now estimates America has been porate by 140 targeted countries forintelligence and the collection, number is expected to grow.Close to half ofall Fortune some 500 companies report ofeconomicespionageagainsttheir version and theannuassets, al costto American is esticompanies matedto be close to $20 billion. The Chineseare well knownforuneconomic dertaking collection operations in theUnitedStates in support oftheir technogovernment's and financial, logical, The military goals. FederalBureauofIn(fbi)revestigation that numerous ports Chinesefront companiesexistsimplyto collectovert economic and othertypesof on key intelligence international bothin thepublic and targets, sectors. to a 2005 stateprivate According mentby an FBIofficial in combatinvolved one-third ofall economing theseactivities, ic espionageinvestigations are linkedto Chinesegovernment research instiagencies, or businesses. tutes, Examplesaboundof bothChinese-Americans and expatriates underinvestigation fortheallegedtheft of tradesecrets from unknown Silishadowy, that con Valleycomputer firms technology areprimarily conduits forinformation to and defense contracmajorChinesemilitary tors.Moreover, havebeen appresuspects in places less hendedfor activities espionage obvious,including Louisiana,New Jersey, New York,and Hawaii. Manyof Virginia, thesesuspected agentshavebeen detainedat
Tomorrow's Spygames

in California, theirluggagefilled airports eviand withcomputer incriminating chips to as of their dence activities, theyprepare fleethecountry. oftheglobal intelliAmongmembers are similarly the gencecommunity, French

A rural GotIntelligence? array. "sig-int"

caeconomic collection renowned fortheir In the late and successes. 1980s, pabilities intheFrench to media reports, according service was reportedly engineering telligence several "blackbag" jobs every day in fine hotelsin Parisand Nice. The usual routine and break-in ofa clandestine would consist or ofa briefcase followed by the theft entry, the of Given types peoplegenercomputer. theinforfortheseoperations, ally targeted sensitive was likelyhighly mationcollected exbusiness valuable.In fact, and financially and other influential ecutives, politicians are often evencelebrities, leaders, subjectto travelers Business when traveling. scrutiny to are advised keep their today regularly lockedawayand to laptopsand documents driveskept data on external storesensitive
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faux pas.

on their person. Despite new information thesehotelroom security precautions, too manyyears Not operations persist. ago whilevisiting theMiddle East,one Central returned (CIA)officer Intelligence Agency a man'sleg to his hotelroomand observed theceilingas he struggled danglingfrom he was spotted. Underthe to exitbefore it circumstances was bestto ignorethe

ofthe Of course, high-quality analysis from whether collected spies, intelligence will also remain a humanor technological, oftheintelligence Politics and Intel feature important vitally the behavior and acOn the politicalfront, Analyzing fairly landscape. predictable will continue constants enemieshas beenand to markAmerica's tivities ofAmerica's a central element ofthepolitical intelligence activities abroad.First, let's will remain in the to humanfallibility, world.A tribute analy- look at Russia,our foremost adversary after its invasis has notalwaysbeendone withconsisten- lastcentury who,particularly sionofGeorgia,seemsincreasingly stems analysis likelyto Insightful cy and alacrity. be a leadingadversary overthe next25 their thequalityoftheanalysts, from Russia'srenewed nationalism theirleaders. and importantly, years. repretraining, ofanother a consissentsthe beginning to provide mustcontinue Leaders phaseofthe and professional U.S.-Russiarelationship. Oil wealth,the framework tent, analytical abandonment of socialist and economic characterized culture policies, by objectivity and a restored but still-flawed politicalorindependence. decision-maker derhaveplaced Russia back on themain As anynational security thattheRussians to is critical knows, stage.We can anticipate analysis independent their interPoliticization will assiduously oftheproduct. theintegrity guard strategic in border areasand former and policy- ests,especially theprocess mustbe absentfrom for from mustrefrain makers po- Sovietstates. interfering oftheCold liticalgain. The needforreliable, But, we will notsee a return insightful, War. The communist is as and objective revolutionary ideology important today analysis folnow.To thatdrovemanySovietleadersand their from as it will be a quarter century themlowers is dead. Russians have seen for ofthe drivehomethispoint,thefounders ofa closed,Marxist selvesthedownside Central wiselyetched Agency Intelligence It is safe to a quote entrance intothewall ofLangley's economy. saythatdespitethe economictroubles former Sovietstateshave theBible: "Andyou shallknowthe from an econotheir citizens The will free." set you and thetruth truth, experienced, prefer in private is simpleand spoton. The essenceof myin whichtheycan participate mantra and where market notthe to and freedom the is forces, enterprise ability good analysis whimsoftheir viewof and objective takea tough-minded leaders, govern. A number in the inofRussiawatchers In thefuture, politicalleadersneed reality. believewe missedan their thatthisserves understand to better community telligence in theaftermath oftheCold of opportunity bestinterests and,aboveall, theinterests War to embrace Russia more and theAmerican vigorously people.
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The intelligence has just community an difficult passedthrough extremely period in thisregard, but there is growing and renewedappreciation oftheprinciple. It is to come likelythatformanyyears very will be push back from there the intellion effort to undergencecommunity any minethisanalytical There is a discipline. healthier mind-set stronger, developing ofthe intelligence commuamongmembers will who not stand for nity politicalinfluence in thefuture.

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to drawit solidlyintotheWestern camp. Whether or notthisanalysis is correct, the UnitedStatesfacesanother turning pointin withMoscowas theKremlin its relationship consolidates its reinvigorated leadership a We can choose pathofpartnership power. or confrontation. In either case,high-quality intelligence will be neededto gauge moreeffectively and capabilities Moscow'splans,intentions, to avoida confrontawe can tion.Moreover, conRussia to expect tinueto strongly supportand growits own capacities. intelligence In thewakeofthecolthe lapseoftheUSSR, fellintodisarservice Russianintelligence deaccompanied by an unprecedented ray, overall.Selaborforce clinein thenation's haveslowly services and intelligence curity mostreand rebuilt themselves, reorganized ofPrimeMinisunderthepatronage cently terVladimirPutin.The SVR (the renamed its preto close is former kgb) regaining FSB and the (the internal collapseinfluence, to theAmerican similar FBI)has reservice, well. as its most of power gained turnwe areat an important Likewise, with China in our relationship ing point inour intelligence thatwill help to define overthenext25 and capabilities terests 2008 The Beijing's Olympicsserved years. aimsofusingpatriotic domestic to shoreup theCommunist nationalism but did and legitimacy, popularity Party's notgive China theboostin international thatit and manyothers expectprestige and violencein ed. Pre-Olympic protests accessto theinterTibet,denialofInternet and national flapsover embarrassing press, little a and fireworks lip-synching digitized the reminded at the openingceremony girl worldin manywaysofChina'sshortcomrewerean important ings.The Olympics
Tomorrow'sSpygames

- still thatChina'spoliticalsystem minder muchout ofsyncwithdemocratic stanvery - will continue dards to be its Achilles' heel. Regrettably, theworldhas been fixated on the primarily hugeeconomic opportunity thatChina represents and has turned a blind eyeto its politicsand its military-intelliand priorities. gencecapabilities As we moveforward in thiscentury, China'sdomestic politicswill becomein-

** Of the services many intelligence in theUnitedStates, China's operating ** themostworrisome. is perhaps

and internal creasingly problematic, oppositionto thegovernment could resultin seriand unrest. ous civil strife China'sstate-run newsagencyreports moreprotests every withtensofthousands of"massinciyear, - someofthemviolent - occurring dents" in 2006. The U.S. intelligence community in the alertforserious cracks will remain that for watching disruptions could system, with littlewarning and cause economerupt worldwide. ic and politicaldestabilization theChineseleaderTo avoid thisoutcome, politicalsysshipwill haveto open up their and fortemto theliberalidealsits citizens havelobbiedfor, or else it risks eign critics intent on repressive, becoming increasingly will undissenters who continue to quieting thecountry's communist foundadermine result tion.Such a turnwould undoubtedly and a majordownturn in investment flight thatwould have in theChineseeconomy financial repercussions. global intelliIn thesamecontext, Western needto be alertto thevery genceservices that serious challenges counter-intelligence In 2001, theFBI theChineserepresent. thesize ofits China unit.Of the tripled in the services operating manyintelligence
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UnitedStates, China'sis perhaps themost worrisome. detail Numerousmedia reports theFBI s concerns aboutChineseexpatriates, and evenChinese-Ameristudents, visiting cans engagedin economic colintelligence lectioneither on behalf oftheChinesegovor organized criminal ernment, groupsenin intellectual countheft, gaging property and terfeiting, piracy.

High-tech Espionage

As we shift to thevariable aspectsofthe inworld over the next 25 years, telligence will thegreatest occurin clearly, changes therealmoftechnology as we advancefurtherintothecomputer age, but other the rise ofenergy and changes, including watersecurity the of issues, restructuring the intelligence and shiftitself, community multilateral will also collaborations, ing markthefuture landscape. We shouldanticipate thatthere will be advancesin the extraordinary technological toolscurrently at thedisposaloftheanalyst and theoperator alike. "Spymasters," as case officers are knownin theindustry, will see an amazingarray ofminiaturized "nanogadgets"becomeavailableforuse. We shouldanticipate thata Blackberry-type device will be encrypted and miniaturized to a pointwhereit can be concealedin a writing and thatit will takeverbal pen or eyeglasses and digitally transmitted commands forthe communication ofdata to an agent,who will likewisereceive it on a similar device. These gadgetswill enhance ourabilitiesto and concealall forms ofcommuniencrypt cationswithclandestine sources. will also improve thesecuriTechnology of American as comofficers, ty intelligence munication withspieshas alwaysbeen the mostdifficult and dangerous aspectofagent with handling. Historically, communicating has often left an trail identifiable agents - the whichcould lead to an agent'sarrest written record whichoften theeviprovided
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theagentin court.In denceto compromise often old modesofcommunication addition, to an with enemies opportunity provided who assisted and harmindividuals identify officers. American intelligence we shouldanticipate major Similarly, communications in breakthroughs capturing We should our national to protect security. inof use the potentially expect increasing toolssuchas audio and visualdevices trusive walls and allow sightsand thatpenetrate The comundetected. soundsto be captured to world is susceptible offsite already puter devicesas "sniffers" such using penetration to comsimilar invisible programs (nearly transthat information worms capture puter Advances mittedin a network system). and software made in maliciouscomputer in will likelyresult networking capabilities thatis virtually of "malware" thecreation - and our capacity to identify undetectable mustgrowas thesethreats and eliminate well. New laws on wiretapping, signalsintelhave comeinand attacks computer ligence, to to play in recent months relating collecand Government surveillance tion privacy. ofbeing ofAmerican citizens suspected as well as activilinkedto terrorist groups, data miningand electronic tiesincluding whichcastan evenwidernet, wiretapping, in will continue to be a pointofcontention a security theUnitedStates,bothfrom perand from theperspective ofcivil spective revised and liberties. laws are Though being to provide moreeffective overtightened thecivil sightand authorization protocols, v. national liberties debatewill security at for least the next25 years, likelypersist as beespecially communications technology comesmoresophisticated, and accessible, undetectable. To avoida loss on bothfronts, American and intelligence policymakers should harness suchtechnologprofessionals ical advances to developsurveillance techfor falsepositives niqueswhichcan filter
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and excludeirrelevant data (or thatprotectat thesame time ed byprivacy while laws), authorimeasures, strengthening oversight and grievance zationprocesses, procedures.

at theDefenseMinistry. Thoughthe techin both casesdid notapnologyemployed thesecyber attacks advanced, pearhighly are onlythetip ofa rapidly icedeveloping In the attacks that disfuture, berg. cyber able an adversary's communications, Warfare Cyber role and othersystems to thethemeofcomputers' will havethe weapons, Returning that15 years potential it is noteworthy to determine in thefuture, theoutcomeofwars. the intelligence ago, community beganto the fully appreciate impactthatmodern would technology haveon intelligence, and and thethreats it repopportunities This awareresented. thatcyber It is important to recognize to committed nessas well as theresources will also extend enwar with has increased, beyond government along technology greatly of our national as ofsensitive tities, 90 percent security parallelgainsin thecollection in is the hands of the infrastructure members private Recently, intelligence. high-value Amerithreats to sector. have exoftheintelligence Addressing cyber community a will necessarily about how techno- ca's infrastructure concern require growing pressed the between new collaboration arena of in the intelligence especially logicaladvances, thathelp run and thebusinesses We warfare. theInternet, community impactmilitary mobile the far to don'thaveto fastforward networks, roads, phone country's recogvery National and electricity warfare bridges, rolethatcyber nize theimportant Jourgrids. thisyearthat,as farback as nal reported wars. will playin future ofHomelandSecuricon2005, theDepartment Indeed,the2008 Russia-Georgia for attacks timecyber thefirst flict protecting ty,theagencyresponsible represents sufcivilian America's Variconflict. armed an actual computer systems, accompanied a attacks over fered In850 the monitor that ous non-profit petwo-year nearly groups netunclassified riod.Two oftheagency's as well as primaliciousactivity, for ternet werefoundto havebeen workservers and official vatesector reported agencies, a breached various on attacks designedto steal by program govGeorgian significant to weeks in the websites ernment passwords. leadingup In late 2007, theBush administration ofarmedconflict.In some theoutbreak askedtheNationalSecurity werein a sense websites Agencyand cases,government to proof Homeland official hackers with Security Department replacing hijacked, and civilian communicatect what with communications government government from tionnetworks believedwas Russianpropahackers, someanalysts especially a $144 milinitiative the and and Estonia Russia In Chinese, gave 2007, fought ganda. withhigh-vol- lion budget.In January in cyberspace, 2008, President a warentirely diBush W. Esume attacks signedtwopresidential George overwhelming effectively of the establishment called for that rectives down toniansystems virtually shutting a concrete, and office at theprimeminister's networks cyber-security comprehensive

**

warwillextend Cyber beyond govas 90 percent ernment ofthe entities, national infrastructure is in security ** sector. thehandsoftheprivate

Tomorrow'sSpygames

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Bush's2009 budgetreport- havenotbeenmade. In 2002, theInformaplan. President was established Office tionAwareness asks for close to $6 billionto be used by edly Research Advanced that the Defense to developa highly confidential Projects system oftheDepartwould protect national (darpa). As a branch security. Agency cyber to was intended theoffice mentofDefense, The resources devotedto strengthening DARPA information several in terms oftechnology America's bringtogether security a to create will increase and cyber threats megadataprojects exponentially technology Information "Total that build in thecomingquarter In base would this case, century. claimed oftheoffice Awareness." the intelligence Supporters thankfully, community would help theUnitedStates thesystem has recognized thethreat earlyon, before from a catastrophic combatasymmetric eventcenters attention on threats, especially thatthedeployCriticscountered it can terrorists. theissue.Over the next25 years, could potentially be expected thattheUnitedStateswill rementofsuchtechnology tainits leadingedge,developing and imple- lead to an illegalmasssurveillance system. database this Public to bolprojagainst outcry menting revolutionary technologies in was so sterdomestic and national interests ect 2003, that, Congress strong security fortheinitiative, abroad. haltedfunding though researched for othertechnologies by funding Office remained Awareness and Civil Liberties theInformation Security In terms overcivillibin play.These types ofbattles ofhumanintelligence, major across will continue restrictions loom on the horizon. Databases of erties surely changes all sorts no doubt,but overtime are expanding at an exponential thenext25 years, will surely be revisited. thistypeofproject ofyears rate,and it will onlybe a matter will before and will for be able to The task analysts operators intelligence professionals that in a manner in arena review this and be to complete comprehensive compete personal profiles data from ofpersonal oftheirtargets. Fromtheseadtheprotection ensures secuvanceddatabases, we will be able to deterthosewho do nothavea truenational minenotonlya target's The testfor basic biographical rity need forthe information. a will be to calibrate democratic institutions data,but also day-to-day livingpatterns and civil and travbalance between entertainment, shopping, reading, security, liberties, el habits, as well as sensitive thatenjoysbroad-based medicalhisto- humanrights pubriesand personal routines. We also will see lic support. commercial initiatives to imbedglobal posiAdvances also will be made in thebeand enhance medical data sciences thatwill greatly havioral (GPS) tioningsystems into the human of for off' evaluation safethe to do "stand chips body personal ability thisnew thepathology ofindividuals. tyand medicalreasons. Brainwashing Inevitably, will be appliedin thegovernand mindcontrol havelong beenresearch technology - as a meansoftracking topicsfortheCIAand foreign mentarenaas well alike. services citizens and their data. fallen While these tactics to have personal appeared While todaythere arepowerful in thelate 1960s, there database out offavor apparmostofthisdata- entlyis renewed in them, interest hereand tools,suchas LexisNexis, base information is concerned withcommer- abroad.This is clearly a troublesome develcial property, and In media and a of concern. records. should be cause litigation, opment Thereare no databases whichincorporate hands of these the individuals, unscrupulous theprivate data thatis so revealing inabout techniques mightbe used to interview, ourpersonalities. This is not to sayattempts terrogate, or evaluatetargets, counterparts,
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and colleaguesalike. Concerns aside,howmost and our adverever, nations, certainly will be pressing the limitsin this saries, and it is hardto imaginethatwe field, would notkeeppace, preserving our strategic edge. One unanticipated aspectofAmerica s response to this rapidly changing will be landscape further consolidation and centralization of intelligence agencies. It is axiomatic that, to maximize our efour intelfectiveness, ligenceresources mustbe properly managed, organized, and led. Thereis awareness amongintelligence practitionersand customers alike thattheexistisn'tworking well ing bureaucratic system needs enough,and thata seriousadjustment to be made.

sible for to takea fresh look policymakers at how bestto build an intelligence commuthewisrediscover nityand, in theprocess, a cendom ofthefounders who emphasized a structure ortralized agencysupported by

wicked thisway comes? Something

basicpillarsofintelliganizedaroundthree and technology. collection, gence: analysis, The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of2004 and a newexecutive and Prevention order whichmarginally enhanced theDirecReform As it stands, theAmerican control over intelligence sys- torofNationalIntelligence's temis bloatedwithredundant of the current 16 layers appear intelligence agencies, - each programmed to protect to be a smallstepin thisdirection. But a management its own turf. it will probably will moredramatic, bolder, Regrettably, reorganization takeanother failure or be needed,one hopeswell before 2033, to majorintelligence international to force a fulland centralize and streamline theintelligence catastrophe serious evaluation oftheorganization of and its effectiveness community, sharpening theintelligence Given recent size. its community. greatly reducing we will probably nothaveto wait With suchreform history, likelyon thehorizon, too long forthisto happen. a powerful will ofintelligence secretary a evaluation can be new need and over the Assuming bipartisan leadership authority donewisely, it is likelythatin theend poli- entity. He or she will havepredominant will return to whattheoriginal control overall aspectsofintelligence colcymakers architects in 1947 whentheCIA lectionand analysis. envisioned This leadership role was established. If unencumbered will be a challenging one,particularly by poligiven ticsand bureaucratic it will be pos- historical resistance to puttingthevarious history,
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- theNationalSecurity years. It is necessary thatwe align our intelligence agencies the Defense withan informed resources (nsa), Agency Intelligence intelligence the Reconnaissance view National of the future. Wherepossible, (dia), Agency strategic in and the as Office National the cases of China and Russia,we (NRO), Geospatialaccord(ngia)- undercivilian shouldset our collection Intelligence Agency priorities a control. is and ingly. Forecasting risky unpopular in theintelligence will likely business ofintelligence The secretary community, actionac- but it mustbe done in orderto be welloverall covert havefullauthority as for the tivities positioned managedby theCIA, change.Over theyears, currently ofbattle- community has becomeincreasingly tactical well as themilitary's "preparation in its planning and now focuses whichare activities field"intelligence activities, on current issues:today 's action.An effective almostexclusively deemed"quasi-covert" In in-box. will also havebudgofintelligence fairness, manyintelligence secretary inalso theuneven the FBI's over control and resource recognize professionals etary in seismic the next Over division. 25 years, pastperformance foreseeing telligence and thepraction the world scene this off in interest respon- changes spinning growing of "conventional wisdom." cal a domestic and creating shortcomings security sibility In the 1990s, no one was focusing modeledon theBritish service sharply Security a attack terrorist on Service catastrophic enough on American in thecreation well result soil, noron theprospects (mi-5)mayvery or more in wars of should ofan American Iraq and Afghanistan, especially equivalent; nationalistic on a resurgent attackon the be another there recently devastating Russia. UnitedStates. forwhatthe thepotential sense,we should Recognizing Last,and in a broader Taleb coineda writer and Nassim scholar that intelliin the comingyears anticipate that comes out of an event swan" "black allies between genceliaisonrelationships and tiltstheworldorder the need will be en- nowhere services and friendly intelligence in assessments but reality-based for creative intellimultilateral that new and hanced, For is world the down face to be will example, great. intelligence developed gencegroups a significant muchlike a beefed-up weaponofmassdepreventing global challenges, attackin theUnitedStatesfrom nation struction the 186-member ofInterpol, version forces shouldbe or non-sovereign coordinates thatcurrently sovereign policeagency to come. for a law enforcement cross-border priority years investigations. top intelligence difficult the consider must We or as solid Thesealliancesmaynotbe questions: longin Al 1 the attack was the allies and 9/1 the in as point high strategic past, lasting Will suchchallenges thanfrom Qaeda's capabilities? maychangeissueto issue,rather havein threats terrorist as other out The to peter clearly country country. Europeans and Latin America in the the United and this aremovingin Europein direction, past, Al will Or and 70s? the 1960s Stateswill notbe farbehindin structuring Qaeda rea and pull off new recruits, multilateral robust relationships group,inspire intelligence atsustained and/or allies. dramatic, ofits own,withtheEU and other catastrophic, tackin theUnitedStates? the whatscenario No matter unfolds, Swans Black remust American intoour over-theto factor It is critical community intelligence on thisissueif focused variables mainappropriately theinternational horizon planning the of to be is there the in kick to are that likely anyhope preventing during coming
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next9/11.It's clearthatRussia,China,and will remain imIslamicterrorism critically thenextquarter threats throughout portant to our naBut how thesechallenges century. will playout dependsgreatly tionalsecurity on ourpoliciesin dealingwiththefuture. thatcomesto powThe newadministration will havean opportunity to er inJanuary theseknown enactpoliciesthataddress to It will also havetheopportunity threats. ofintelliforthefuture laythecornerstone and prigence,whilebuildingthestructure it. This is notto say thatsurround orities shouldbe thattheintelligence community and Islamic focused solelyon Russia,China, as well as the The community, terrorism. needsalso newpresidential administration, Pakofa nuclear thepossibility to consider unanti-Western istanruledby extremists, Israeland its neighissuesbetween resolved and nuclear Iran,as bors,an empowered intentions well as NorthKorea'smilitary and proliferation plans. Whereelse mighta blackswanappear thattiltsstrategic duringthecomthinking A reasonable mightbe suggestion ing years? arena.While we are busy in theeconomic oftoday thepoliticallandscape measuring we needalso to invest to forecast tomorrow, to and analysis collection in intelligence and fithreats economic worldwide evaluate This arenahas histornancialdevelopments. of component icallybeenan under-invested world.If thelast fewyears theintelligence

havetaughtus anything, theglobal econois much more my complexand vulnerable thangenerally witha capacity to perceived, rockinstitutions and individuals alike. The that interlocking piecesare so complicated it is extremely difficult to forecast even short-term economictrends. Thereis a awareness ofthisproblemin the growing and it is very intelligence community likely thatmoretimeand effort will haveto be devotedto it. This substantial effort will thehiring ofuniversity fiMBAs, require who undernance,and economics majors standthemanyintricacies ofglobal marwill necessitate kets.It likewise therecruitmentofforeign agentsimbeddedin the international economic world.It will take to hone this capability. years The comingdecadeswill bringother to whichpolicysurprises unanticipated makers and members ofthe intelligence will haveto respond and adapt. community ofa blackswaneventcan The possibility and theintelligence never be discarded, mustboostits efforts to think community about future threats, including creatively thosewhichcould dramatically impact and global economies. How we American and oureffort, allocateresources, structure should technological breakthroughs apply discourse be thebasis forserious bipartisan in Congress, theexecutive and branch, public at large. amongtheAmerican

Tomorrow'sSpygames

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