Check Sheet for M. Sc.

Thesis Proposal and Topic Approval

1 2 3 4 5 6 Title Page Table of contents Problem Statement Aims & Objectives Literature Review Methodology of Research a) b) c) d) 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Theoretical Studies Experimental Set Up Method of Analysis Result Expected

Utilization of Research Results Work Schedule Plan Budget Description References Curriculum Vitae Undertaking Board of Post Graduate Studies Remarks

Certified that the Synopsis/Topic approval report is according to the items listed in Check Sheet.

Research Scholar:

Director Postgraduate Studies, Department of Electrical Engg. Name___________________ Signature________________ Date____________________

Name_________________ Signature______________ Date __________________

M.Sc. Thesis Proposal Use Support Vector Machine for Short Term Load Forecasting Problem

Submitted By Muhammad Nadeem Anjum 13F-MS-EE-08 Supervisor Prof. Dr. Aftab Ahmed Professor EED

DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY TAXILA

MARCH 2014
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Table of Contents

Problem Statement Aims & Objectives Literature Review Methodology of Research Utilization of Research Results Work Schedule Plan Budget Description References Curriculum Vitae Undertaking Supervisors Comments Board of Post Graduate Studies Remarks

4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10

1. Problem Statement
Load forecasting has become one of the most critical issues in planning and operation of electric power industry. An accurate estimation of load is essential for electricity price forecast. Load forecasts can have significant implications on energy transactions, market shares and profits in competitive electricity markets. Short term load forecasting (STLF) is use to forecast day ahead load. STLF is used load generation, reduce the spinning reserve and schedule device maintenance

During last ten to fifteen years, Neural Network (NN) approaches combines with other methods are most frequently used for Short term load forecasting (STLF). There are severe issues appears in the designing of STLF Model based upon NN for the Real world applications, Over fitting and curse of dimensionality, In such

conditions, the forecasting system can yield poor results. Support vector machines (SVM) excellent generalization properties on real-life regression and classification problems. Support Vector Regression Machines (SVM) is proposed to tackle these issues .in addition, Feature selection algorithm will be use for the Generation model selection and Particle Swarm Global Optimization is used to reduce the interaction time. Application of SVM for load forecasting depends upon the available data and forecasting perspective (e.g STLF, MTLF, LTLF).New England and North American Electric Utility data sets are well known and publicity available. Accuracy of prediction can significantly useful for (1) economic operation (2) reliability

2. Aims & Objectives

a) Optimization b) Maximum accuracy c) Error reduction d) Economic operation e) Reliability

3. Literature Review
Load forecasting has become one of the most critical issues in planning and operation of electric power industry. An accurate estimation of load is essential for electricity price forecast. Load forecasts can have significant implications on energy transactions, market shares and profits in competitive electricity markets.[1] The development rate of countries around the globe currently are growing tremendously and is inevitable . The world population growth rate in 2012 is estimated to be about 1.096%.The pattern of population rate around the globe is continuously growing annually. The growing pattern of human population indicates that the demand for accommodation, nation development and others will also keep increasing. Complementary to all these developments, superfluous energy is needed to drive the global demand and at the same time, the environment needs to be kept safe. Furthermore the rapid expansion of residential and commercial areas also contributes to the increase of building energy consumption, especially by the industrial growth. Energy consumption forecasting also plays a significant role in plans to improve energy performance, and save energy. Moreover, forecasting also plays a vital role in decision-making and future planning which rely on accurate forecasting result. [2] Generally, each building consists of multiple electrical loads that are used consistently or regularly. In commercial buildings and industrial buildings, lighting, motors, air-conditioning system or Air Handling Unit (AHU) system are the common loads used. However, other devices or Miscellaneous Electrical Loads (MELs) such as computers, printers, televisions, fax machines, oscilloscopes, furnaces and others also contribute to the energy consumption. Nevertheless, in general, air-conditioning consumes the most electrical energy consumption of the buildings [3] Besides the use of electrical appliances and devices in buildings, the geographical and location of a building also influence the electric energy consumption, and indirectly affects the forecasting analysis. Geographical differences of the building will make a difference in the use of electrical equipment. This differentiation is related to several factors associated to the particular country, such as the weather condition, surrounding temperature where

the country is located, as well as the seasons.[2][4] the influence of temperature is the most, other factors also contribute to the electricity demand, such as humidity, wind speed, cloudiness, rainfalls and solar radiation [5] In terms of time scale, generally, the hours of operation of a building varies, depending on the type of building. For example, the duration of electricity usage in industrial buildings is usually 24 h. However, there are industrial buildings that operate within working hours. For office buildings, the operation time is normally in working hours, usually starting from 8am until 5pm. For electricity consumption in the residential area, the electricity usage is maximum in the evening when all family members are at home. However, this electrical energy usage also depends on several occasions, such as holiday, festive and others. For a forecasting purpose, there are three categories of forecasting analysis, named as Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF), Medium Term Load Forecasting (MTLF), and Long Term Load Forecasting(LTLF). [2] STLF time range between 24 h, but up to only one week, MTLF time range covers from one week, up to one year, LTLF time range covers greater than one year[1][6] There are several popular methods used for forecasting energy consumption, which can be categorized into three, which are Engineering Method, Statistical Method and Artificial Intelligence (AI) Method[2] .the most widely implemented method in forecasting is the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Method, which includes Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM)[2] [7][8]. The other two methods of Engineering Methods and Statistical Methods are still applied, but some shortcomings have been identified in both these methods, Among the deficiencies identified in Engineering Method are its complexity which contributes to the difficulties to apply it practically and its lack of input information [7] . Meanwhile, the Statistical Methods has been found to have lack of accuracy and not flexible [2][7].

Support vector machines:

Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are a more recent powerful technique for solving classification and regression problems. This approach was originated from Vapniks [9] statistical learning theory. Unlike neural networks, which try to define complex functions of the input feature space, support vector machines perform a nonlinear mapping (by using so-called kernel functions) of the data into

a high dimensional (feature) space. Then support vector machines use simple linear functions to create linear decision boundaries in the new space. The problem of choosing architecture for a neural network is replaced here by the problem of choosing a suitable kernel for the support vector machine [6]. Mohandes [10] applied the method of support vector machines for short-term electrical load forecasting. The author compares its performance with the autoregressive method. The results indicate that SVMs compare favorably against the autoregressive method. Chen et al. [11] proposed a SVM model to predict daily load demand of a month. Their program was the winning entry of the competition organized by the EU-NITE network. Li and Fang [12] also used a SVM model for short-term load forecasting.

4. Methodology of Research 4.1 Theoretical Studies

Load forecasting problem Important Factors for Forecasts Short-term load forecasting methods Regression methods Support Vector Machines Feature selection algorithm MATLAB (Application software)

4.2 Method of Analysis

Support Vector Machine (SVM) Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) Statistical Methods(Regression)

4.3 Result Expected

Reduce the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) Reduce running time

5. Utilization of Research Results

(1) Economic operation 7

(2) Reliability

6. Work Schedule Plan

Sample of work schedule is given below. Collection of literature Study of Literature Analysis of Proposed Scheme Preparation of Scheme/Model Implementation of Scheme/Model Analysis and Simulation Result Formulation Final Write-up & Thesis Submission Two Weeks Two Weeks One Month One Month One Month One Month Two Weeks Two Weeks

6.1

Proposed Time Schedule

Sample is given below.

Activity Collection of Literature Study of Literature Analysis of Proposed Scheme Preparation of Schemes / Model Implementation of Schemes/Model Analysis & Simulation Result Formulation Final Write-up & Thesis Submission

Apr 2014

May

June July

August September 2014

2014 2014 2014 2014

7. Budget Description
Write about budget required for the proposed research here. Do mention about that how the equipment/experimental setup required will be arranged. E.g., experimental setup is present in university or some other organizations setup will be used or funding is required for the execution of proposed research.

8. References
[1] Ervin Ceperic, Vladimir Ceperic and Adrijan Baric , STLF: A Strategy for ShortTerm Load Forecasting by Support Vector Regression Machines, IEEE Transactions on power systems, vol. 28, no. 4, November 2013 [2] A .S. Ahmad, M.Y. Hassan, M.P. Abdullah, H.A . Rahman F. Hussin, H. Abdullah, R. Saidur, A review on applications of ANN and SVM for building electrical energy consumption forecasting Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 33 (2014) 102 109 [3] H. Mohamad, S.Hazlina, Y. Rubiyah, B. Salinda,Fatimah S. Review of HVAC scheduling techniques for buildings towards energy efficient and cost effective operation Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 27( 2013) pp 94 103 [4] Mirasgedis S, Sarafi dis Y, Georgopoulou E, Lalas DP, Moschovits M, Karagiannis F, et al. Models for mid-term electricity demand forecasting incorporating weather influences Energy 2006;31(2 3):208 27 [5] Moral-Carcedo JN, Vicens-Otero J. "Modelling the non-linear response of Spanish electricity demand to temperature variations" Energy Economy 2005;27:477 94. [6] Ghiassi M, Zimbra DK, Saidane H. Medium term system load forecasting with a dynamic artificial neural network model Electrical Power System Res 2006;76 (5) [7] Zhao H-X, Magouls F. A review on the prediction of building energy consumption Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2012; 16(6) :3586 92. [8] Lee Yi-Shian, Tong L-I. Forecasting time series using a methodology based on autoregressive integrated moving average and genetic programming Knowledge Based System 2011; 24(1): 66 72. [9] V.N. Vapnik The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory New York, Springer Verlag, 1995. [10] M. Mohandes. Support Vector Machines for Short-Term Electrical Load

Forecasting. International Journal of Energy Research ,26: 335345, 2002. [11] B.J. Chen, M.W. Chang, and C.J. Lin. Load Forecasting using Support

Vector Machines: A Study on EUNITE Competition 2001 Technical report, Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Taiwan University, 2002. 10

[12]

Y. Li and T. Fang. Wavelet and Support Vector Machines for Short-Term

Electrical Load Forecasting. Proceedings of International Conference on Wavelet Analysis and its Applications, 1:399404, 2003. [13] S.A. Soliman, A. M. Al-Kandari, Electrical load forecasting : modeling and

model construction, Elsevier,2010, ISBN: 978-0-12-381 543-9

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9. Curriculum Vitae
Write down very briefly as per format given below: Name: Fathers Name: Regn. No.: Contact: Address: Phone: E-mail (s): Courses Passed: muhammadnadeemanjum@yahoo.com Muhammad Nadeem Anjum Riasat Ali 13F-MS-EE-08 +92-302-7917618

Subject 1 2 3 4 NA NA NA NA

Exam Held in

Grade

GPA

Name Employer Organization: Name & Contact of the Controlling Officer:

10. Undertaking
I certify that research work titled Short Term Load Forecasting Using Support Vector Machine is my own work. The work has not, in whole or in part, been presented elsewhere for assessment. Where material has been used from other sources it has been properly acknowledged/referred.

Muhammad Nadeem Anjum 13F-MS-EE-08

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11. Supervisors Comments

Take recommendation of your supervisor for your proposed research work here.

Signature of Supervisor Name of Supervisor Designation of Supervisor

12. Board of Post Graduate Studies Remarks

Do not write anything here. This is for office use only.

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