Renewable Energy 28 (2003) 18131824 www.elsevier.

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Technical note

Weather data and probability analysis of hybrid photovoltaicwind power generation systems in Hong Kong
H.X. Yang , L. Lu, J. Burnett
Department of Building Services Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong Received 23 July 2002; accepted 19 December 2002

Abstract This paper describes a simulation model for analyzing the probability of power supply failure in hybrid photovoltaicwind power generation systems incorporating a storage battery bank, and also analyzes the reliability of the systems. An analysis of the complementary characteristics of solar irradiance and wind power for Hong Kong is presented. The analysis of local weather data patterns shows that solar power and wind power can compensate well for one another, and can provide a good utilization factor for renewable energy applications. For the loss of power supply probability (LPSP) analysis, the calculation objective functions and restraints are set up for the design of hybrid systems and to assess their reliability. To demonstrate the use of the model and LPSP functions, a case study of hybrid solarwind power supply for a telecommunication system is presented. For a hybrid system on the islands surrounding Hong Kong, a battery bank with an energy storage capacity of 3 days is suitable for ensuring the desired LPSP of 1%, and a LPSP of 0% can be achieved with a battery bank of 5 days storage capacity. 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Hybrid photovoltaicwind system; Simulation model; LPSP method; Battery bank

Corresponding author. Tel.: +852-2766-5863; fax: +852-2774-6146. E-mail address: behxyang@polyu.edu.hk (H.X. Yang).

0960-1481/03/$ - see front matter 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/S0960-1481(03)00015-6

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Nomenclature The power generated by the wind turbine when the wind velocity is v, W The rated power generated by the wind turbine, W Pr The rated wind velocity of the wind turbine, m / s vr The cut-in wind speed of the wind turbine, m / s vc v Wind speed, m / s The cut-off wind speed of the wind turbine, m / s vf G The total solar radiation absorbed by the PV panels, W/m2 V Voltage generated by the PV module, V I Current generated by the PV module, A P Power output by the PV module, W C1,C2,C3 Parameters that can be identied by tests [12] C4,C5,C6 Parameters that can be identied by tests [12] Parameter that can be identied by tests [12] C7 Operating temperature of solar cells, K, determined by ambient air Tce temperature, the characteristics of the module, insulation on the module, and other variables such as wind velocity. SOC(t) Battery state of charge of the battery bank at hour t, Ah s Self-discharge rate of the battery bank, percentage h(Ibat(t)) Charging efciency of the battery bank with the charging current at hour t, assumed 1 during discharge, and 0.65 to 0.85 during charge Ibat(t) Charging current at hour t, A t Time interval, 1.0 h in this study Ibat,max(t) Possible maximum battery current rate at h t, A The maximum battery current rate of the battery bank, A Imax C Constant, zero during discharge and 1 during charge SOCmax The maximum state of charge of the battery bank, Ah SOCmin The minimum state of charge of the battery bank, Ah C(t) Power input to the storage system at hour t, W P(t) Power generated by the wind turbine and PV modules at hour t, W L(t) Electricity load needed by the demand system at hour t, W PW(t) Power generated by the wind turbine at hour t, W PPV(t) Power generated by PV modules at hour t, W The nominal voltage need by the system, V VL Ineeded(t) Current needed for the load at hour t, A Isupply(t) Current supplied by both PV modules and wind turbine at hour t, A LPSP Loss of power supply probability SOC The nominal capacity of the battery bank, equaling SOCmax, Ah Pw(v)

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1. Introduction For different districts and locations, climatic conditions, including solar irradiance, variations in wind speed, temperature, and so forth, are always changing. In order to efciently utilize renewable energy using wind power and solar energy, an analysis of the characteristics of solar irradiance and wind conditions at a potential site should be made at the stage of inception. There are a number of methods used to design a hybrid photovoltaic wind system and to calculate the probability or reliability of its power generating capacity. The most popular method, LPSP (loss of power supply probability) method has been used to design a hybrid system using linear programming, goal programming and probabilistic techniques [13]. LPSP is the probability that an insufcient power supply results when the hybrid system (PV, wind power and energy storage) is not able to satisfy the load demand. The LPSP is considered to be the implemented criteria for a hybrid PVwind system employing a battery bank. For one location, long-term data on wind speed and irradiance records for every hour of the day are deduced to produce the probability density function of the combined generation. For a given load distribution, the probability density function of the storage is obtained and the battery size calculated to give the relevant level of the systems reliability using the LPSP technique. Additionally, the trade-off/risk method is a recent theoretical advance to solve problems with multiple conicting objectives and uncertainty in system planning [4]. In this study, a simulation model of a hybrid system is established, and its reliability or probability for a telecommunication system is analyzed using the LPSP technique. For a given loss probability, different combinations of PV modules, wind turbines and battery banks are determined.

2. Weather data analysis For the Hong Kong Special Administrative region, the climate data for 1989 are taken as the typical weather year, as shown in Ref. [5]. It is seen from Fig. 1 that

Fig. 1.

Monthly accumulated solar radiation and wind power distribution in 1989.

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Fig. 2. Daily accumulated solar radiation and wind power distribution in January.

solar and wind sources are complementary over that year. The summer provides good solar irradiance but poor wind conditions, whilst a relatively good wind source but poor solar radiation occurs in the winter. For the daily distribution the results are shown in Fig. 2. On most days with high solar radiation, the wind energy is poor. Such periods usually last for 35 days, thus such complementary characteristics make the hybrid application more reliable. The above shows that the combination of the two energy sources can provide a better utilization factor for the available energy. For a typical day of sunshine, the radiation peaks at around 13:00, as shown in Fig. 3. The available solar power is able to meet the load prole and peak load during the daytime. For the wind distribution in Hong Kong, September to March provides the highest wind speeds, which occur early in the morning, with the lowest in the afternoons. In other months, the wind speed in good wind exposure areas changes daily and continuously [6]. Thus, solar energy and wind energy resources can compensate for each other not only for a few days but also for the whole year.

Fig. 3.

Typical diurnal solar radiation distribution in a sunny day.

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3. Probability analysis of hybrid photovoltaicwind power generation systems 3.1. Methodology In order to calculate the performance of an existing system, or to predict energy consumption or energy generated from a system in the design stage, appropriate weather data is required. The development of methodologies for generating the socalled typical meteorological year (TMY) provides a standard for hourly data for solar radiation and other meteorological parameters for a period of 1 year, representing climatic conditions considered to be typical over a longer time period. Previous studies are mostly for solar energy systems and building energy studies [7 10], but no appropriate TMY study is available for wind and hybrid solarwind application. In earlier studies, the weighting criteria for wind have been very smallscale, so a TMY for a hybrid solarwind system was required. A suitable TMY for hybrid solar-wind systems should be studied and achieved for Hong Kong and other areas to calculate the performance of the renewable energy application [11]. Here, the typical weather year of 1989 is applied for the probability study on an hourly basis instead of one appropriate TMY for Hong Kong. The results achieved in this study are for the typical weather year of 1989 only. Thus, more reliable results and fewer errors can be achieved if the appropriate TMY were applied. 3.2. The simulation models The system is shown in Fig. 4. The wind energy conversion system (WECS) and photovoltaic system are paralleled in order to supply electrical power to the load, and the excess energy generated is supplied to the batteries. Once the energy is decit, the batteries discharge to supply the shortfall in demand. The following simulation determines the performance of a hybrid system. For the output power of the wind energy conversion system (WECS), the wind

Fig. 4. Schematic diagram of a hybrid solarwind system.

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speed distribution for selected sites and chosen wind turbine type are the main factors considered. The following simplied model is used to assess power generation probability as a function of wind velocity:

Pw(v)

Pr (vvc)vcvvr (vrvc)

Prvrvvf 0otherwise

(1)

For most PV modules, the power generation characteristic can be described by [12]: I C1 C2GC3 EXP P VI

V V V 1 C5 EXP 1 C4Tce C6Tce C7Tce

(2) (3)

A maximum power point tracker (MPPT) is used to extract the maximum available power at every isolation level. Here, the monocrystalline silicon PV modules are used. The specications are shown in Section 3.4. More details about the photovoltaic modules are introduced in the literature [12]. The maximum power points are found from: P 0 V (4)

Small-sized lead-acid batteries are used for energy storage. The selection of a proper battery for these types of applications requires a complete analysis of the batterys charge and discharge requirements, including load, output and pattern of the solar or alternative energy source, the operating temperature, and the efciency of the charger and other system components. Energy losses occur when charging a battery. The battery efciency drops further when as the battery ages or if it is not maintained correctly. The batterys state of charge (SOC) is computed using: SOC(t 1) SOC(t)s Ibat(t)th(Ibat(t)) Ibat.max(t) max{0,min[Imax,(C(SOCmaxSOC(t)) (SOC(t) SOCmin)(1C)) / t]} Ibat,max depends on the batterys state at each time instant. The batterys state is described by the amount of the batterys state of charge, by the sign of the battery current, as well as by the history of the battery. Imax is given by manufactures as around 20% of the value of nominal capacity. (5) (6) The maximum possible battery current rate Ibat,max at time t, is determined by:

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In this study, the electrical energy is supplied to a telecommunication system. The main consumer is the telecommunication equipment, as well as four buoys of 40 W each during the nighttime. The operation mode is about 30% in emission and 70% in reception. The power consumption is 70 W from 7:00 to 19:00, and 230 W from 19:00 to 7:00. 3.3. Loss of power supply probability (LPSP) The power input to the storage system is controlled by the equation C(t) = P(t)L(t) in which P(t) = PW(t) + PPV(t). It is evident that the power generated by the hybrid system and the amount of energy stored are time dependent. For the charging process of the battery, [PW(t) + PPV(t)] L(t), the objective function is: SOC(t 1) SOC(t)s PW(t) PPV(t)L(t) th(Ibat(t)) VL (7)

The charging efciency is considered to be 0.75, and the self-discharge rate is assumed to be zero since it is only 0.007% for 1 h. There are some constraints restricting the range of the decision variables during the charging process: PW(t) PPV(t)L(t) 0.2SOCVL t (8) (9)

0.2SOCSOC(t)SOC

For the discharging process, PW(t) + PPV(t) L(t), the related equations are as follows: Ineeded(t) L(t)PW(t)PPV(t) h(Ibat(t)) VL (10)

Isupply(t) min Imax

LPSP

i1

0.2SOC SOC(t)sSOCmin , t t

(11)

hours(Isupply(t) Ineeded(t)) n (12)

The discharging efciency is considered to be 1. For longevity of battery, the maximum charging rate, SOC/5, is given as the upper limit. To avoid deep discharging, the battery cannot be discharged to 20% or less, so that SOCmin is 20% of the nominal capacity of the chosen battery. 3.4. Sizing selection of wind generator, PV module and battery Using the LPSP technique, the size of the equipment is optimized and can be selected when economical constraints are not considered. The assumptions of this study are as follows:

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Table 1 Characteristics of PV modules Height (mm) Width (mm) Frame PV area (m2) Electrical performance

Dep.(mm) 1280 357 29

Wid.(mm) 27 0.457

Isc 2.5 A

Voc

Pmax

22 V 50 W

1. For the PV alone system, the optimization starts from 30 50 W PV modules with an interval of one 50 W PV module. The modules are placed horizontal, and their characteristics are given in Table 1. 2. To assess the wind turbine alone system, a 0.3 kW wind generator is chosen as the starting point, and 0.1 kW is considered as the interval. The characteristics of wind turbines are, as follows: Start-up wind speed, 2.7 m/s; rated wind speed, 12.5 m/s; cut-off wind speed, 20.3 m/s; tower height, 22 m. 3. To assess the hybrid PVwind power generation system, the capacity of wind generators ranges from 0.22 kW with an interval of 0.1 kW, while two PV modules is the starting point with one PV module as interval. Here, the wind turbine power rate is considered as the lead power generator because of the coincident variation trend between daily load and wind speed distribution curve. 4. For the PV alone and wind alone power systems, considering their randomness and discontinuity, 3 or 5 days worth of battery storage capacity is chosen, i.e. about 450 and 750 Ah (24 V voltage). For the hybrid system, three different battery storage capacities are used for comparison, i.e. 150, 450 and 750 Ah. 3.5. Results and discussion 3.5.1. Results for the PV system operating alone For the PV system alone, the PV capacity required is quite large, as shown in Fig. 5. If the desired LPSP is 1%, the PV module number is more than 82 for 3

Fig. 5.

The number of PV modules required for the desired LPSP.

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days battery storage capacity, and 64 for 5 days battery storage capacity. If the desired LPSP is 0%, the PV system alone with 3 days battery storage cannot meet the requirement, but the one with 5 days battery storage can meet the requirement when the PV modules number 76. This is because heavy cloudy/rain weather may continue for more than 3 days, but less than 5 days. Results also show that the LPSP reduction ratio declines with the increase in the PV module numbers. Higher ratios exist when the number of the PV modules is less than 40, while ratios become lower when the PV module number is more than 70. Thus, for this system, it is not appropriate to increase the number of PV modules for satisfying reliability. 3.5.2. Results for wind power system operating alone The wind power system usually meets demand very well due to good wind speed distribution in Hong Kong and because the load prole coincides with power density distribution, that is, a higher load during night-time with good wind speed. For such a load prole, the wind power system is more suitable. If the desired LPSP is 1%, a 900 W or larger wind turbine is needed with 3 days battery storage, and 700 W with 5 days battery storage. If the desired LPSP is 0%, the system with 3 days battery storage cannot meet the requirement, but for the 5-day battery storage system the rated power needed is 1400 W. For PV or wind power systems, a 5-day storage battery is more suitable. This is because, in Hong Kong, both bad solar radiation and bad wind speed occurs continually for more than 3 days, but for less than 5 days. The curves also show that the LPSP reduction ratio has the same trend of the PV system alone curves, as shown in Fig. 6. Changes to the ratio are very small when the rated power of the wind turbine exceeds 700 or 800 W. 3.5.3. Results for hybrid PVwind systems Hybrid PVwind power systems usually meet load demands well because of the good complementary effect of solar radiation and wind speed. For 150 or 450 Ah battery storage capacities, the wind turbines with 200, 800, 1400 and 2000 W for

Fig. 6.

The wind turbine capacity required for the desired LPSP.

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different numbers of PV modules are chosen for comparison, as shown in Fig. 7. For the 750 Ah storage, the trend is very similar to the 450 Ah case. The combinations have very high reliability with very small LPSP, except for the 200 W wind turbine system. Comparing the hybrid system with the PV system alone or the wind system alone shows that the hybrid system can reduce both photovoltaic capacity and wind turbine capacity. For different desired LPSPs, the calculation results are shown in Fig. 8 and Fig. 9. The areas above the curves are areas that can ensure the required probability. For a desired LPSP of 1% it shows that the hybrid system with a 1-day storage battery can also provide high reliability and good probability, but the system needs an excessive number of PV modules. The combinations for the system with 3-day storage and the ones with 5-day storage are very similar. The 3-day storage hybrid system is very suitable for the needed LPSP of 1%. For the desired LPSP of 0%, only the systems with 3 or 5-day storage can meet the need. The changing ratio is also very gradual when the rated power of the wind turbine exceeds 500 W. The number of PV modules needed is also very large, at least 15 for the 3-day storage system, while the hybrid system with 5-day storage has good performance to meet the no-loss operating hours.

Fig. 7. (a) Combinations of PV and wind power capacities for the desired LPSP (150 Ah battery); (b) Combinations of PV and wind power capacities for the desired LPSP (450 Ah battery).

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Fig. 8. Combinations of PV and wind capacities for the desired LPSP of 1% with different storage capacities.

Fig. 9. Combinations of PV and wind capacities for the desired LPSP of 0% with different storage capacities.

4. Conclusions As the rst step in developing solarwind hybrid energy in Hong Kong, the 1989 weather data as the typical weather year was used to analyze the complementary characteristics of solar radiation and wind power. Simulation models for hybrid photovoltaicwind systems with a storage battery are set up for LPSP calculation. The optimized combinations of photovoltaic modules, wind turbine and battery bank are obtained for different desired LPSPs. For the load demand system in this study, the priority sequence for choosing renewable systems in Hong Kong should be the hybrid PVwind power generation system, the wind power system alone, then the PV system alone. The priority sequence is affected not only by the load prole but also by wind speed and by solar radiation conditions. The results show that the hybrid system with a 3-day power storage battery is suitable for ensuring an LPSP of 1%, while the hybrid system with a 5-day power storage battery is suitable for ensuring an LPSP of 0%. The weather conditions, the types of photovoltaic modules and wind turbine, and the prole of the demand load also inuence the priority sequence. Detailed simulation should be undertaken before designing a hybrid renewable power generation system.

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The weather data used in this study is the data of the typical weather year of 1989. Suitable weather data of TMY (for renewable energy use) can provide more correct calculation or analysis results with fewer errors.

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