Published by Newcastle University NE1 7RU

Copyright © Newcastle University 2007

ISBN 978-07017-0213-7

Disclaimer statement
Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy
of the information supplied herein, Newcastle University
cannot be held responsible for any errors or omissions.
Unless otherwise indicated, opinions expressed herein are
those of the authors.

Copyright statement
This publication (excluding logos) may be reproduced free
of charge in any format or medium for research, private
study or for circulation within an organisation. This is
subject to it being reproduced accurately and not used in
a misleading context. The material must be acknowledged
as copyright and the publication should be referenced as:

Walsh, C.L., Hall, J.W., Street, R.B., Blanksby, J., Cassar,

M., Ekins, P., Glendinning, S., Goodess, C.M., Handley,
J., Noland, R. and Watson, S.J. Building Knowledge
for a Changing Climate: collaborative research to
understand and adapt to the impacts of climate change
on infrastructure, the built environment and utilities.
Newcastle University, March 2007.

For further information contact:

Dr Claire Walsh, School of Civil Engineering and
Geosciences, Newcastle University.
email: claire.walsh@ncl.ac.uk.

all background images copyright © christine jeans

except pages 11, 36, 55, 56, 57, 60, 61
Preface

Climate change is projected to have a significant impact upon buildings,

infrastructure and utilities. As it is essential that these systems are designed
to last for decades, so it is of the utmost importance include climate change in
their planning, design and operations. In order to plan effectively for the future,
researchers, regulators, policy-makers and decision-makers need to work together
to determine future challenges and to develop appropriate adaptation options.
The Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate (BKCC) programme supported
by EPSRC and UKCIP involved researchers and stakeholders from the outset in
defining and undertaking a portfolio of nine projects related to climate change and
the built environment. The programme had a number of generic objectives:
• to better understand potential impacts and adaptation measures for climate
change on the built environment, transport and the utilities;
• to inform stakeholders on how to adapt successfully to impacts of climate change;
and
• to inform the research community on the research challenges in implementing
these adaptation strategies.
An over-arching Stakeholder Forum has kept the projects focused on solutions-
driven research and has advised where BKCC outputs themselves can be applied
more widely. In order to achieve an effective sharing of knowledge between projects
and with stakeholders, the programme was coordinated through an Integrating
Framework which included a data-management group to facilitate data acquisition
and storage.
This publication reports the BKCC programme and presents results from the portfolio
of nine projects. It aims to inform a range of stakeholders whether they be policy-
makers, decision-makers, planners or designers. Further details of the research
results can be found in the more detailed publications cited in this report.
The projects have advanced knowledge of the impact of climate change on
urban drainage, engineered slopes, the electricity supply industry, the aviation
industry, historic buildings and infrastructure, as well as the urban environment
more generally. The programme has delivered new insights into how to reduce
climate related risk and increase resilience in the built environment, including
soft engineering solutions with urban greenspace. Specialised climate and socio-
economic scenarios have been developed along with risk assessment techniques.
A summary of each of the projects is given which provides context to the projects,
states the aim and objectives of the projects, provides an overview of the project
methodology, highlights the key results of the research and suggests how the results
relate to policy and practice.
Each of the projects has resulted in new insights and important recommendations.
However, unlike climate science, which generates headline-grabbing results,
the science and practice of adaptation cannot be summarised simply. It involves
carefully weighing up options, costs and risks within the context of specific locations
and systems. Understanding the vulnerabilities of engineering systems and
proposing modifications to make them more robust and resilient involves careful
analysis and skilled engineering judgement. Those skills are not widespread in
practice and one of the contributions of the BKCC programme has been to train a
new cohort of young researchers in methods that can be transferred into practice.
The BKCC programme has certainly not solved all the problem of adapting
infrastructure systems and the built environment to climate change. It was not
able to cover all infrastructure sectors with the BKCC programme. Furthermore,
our understanding of the challenges presented by climate change is itself rapidly
evolving. This report therefore concludes by summarising some of the challenges
and research questions that remain in adapting to a changing climate in the built
environment.
This report is one of the outputs of the EPSRC funded project Sustaining Knowledge
for a Changing Climate (SKCC), which will sustain the researcher and end user
community assembled in the BKCC programme. SKCC will develop a user-led
plan for future research into the impacts of climate change on the built environment
and infrastructure and development of adaptation options. To become involved in
developing that research plan, visit the SKCC web site at http://www.k4cc.org/


Introduction

Climate change is projected to have a significant impact upon buildings, infrastructure and utilities.
Decision-makers need a much larger knowledge base in order to plan effectively for the future. To
achieve this, researchers, regulators, policy makers and decision-makers need to work together
so that this knowledge can be generated and then utilised to maximum advantage in developing
climate change adaptation strategies.

Infrastructure for the built environment is typically designed and constructed Key research issues include:
to be operational over a long time period, meaning that knowledge of future • How can existing buildings and
conditions and integration of that knowledge in building and infrastructure, urban areas be adapted to cope
design and operations are essential. The impacts of climate change are likely with new climate and weather
to become increasingly evident and more prevalent in the coming decades. extremes, when they were built
Therefore, unless we start building this into current design and practice, the many decades or even centuries
consequences could be severe. Planners, designers, architects and engineers, ago?
and those responsible for infrastructure, all need to consider and address these
climate change risks. • How should drainage systems in urban
areas and on transport networks
be modified to cope with changing
patterns and intensity of rainfall?
• How can cooling systems be
designed to cope with warmer
weather, while minimising energy
use?
Through a portfolio of nine projects
Contents EPSRC and UKCIP supported a
programme of research: Building
Knowledge for a Changing Climate
(BKCC), which has advanced
knowledge of the impacts of
climate change on urban drainage,
Introduction ......................................................................................... 2
engineered slopes, the electricity
supply industry, the aviation industry,
Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate ....................................... 3 historic buildings and infrastructure
and the urban environment more
A changing climate .............................................................................. 4 generally. Specialised climate and
socio-economic scenarios have
The BKCC Integrating Framework and Stakeholder Forum ............... 6 been developed along with risk
assessment techniques.
BETWIXT: high resolution weather scenarios ..................................... 8 Now that BKCC is complete, EPSRC
have funded a follow-on initiative
BESEECH: socio-economic scenarios ................................................ 14 entitled Sustaining Knowledge for a
Changing Climate (SKCC) with the
CRANIUM: risk management .............................................................. 22 aim of further disseminating results
from BKCC and preparing the ground
AUDACIOUS: urban drainage ............................................................. 36 for future research. This publication,
which forms part of the SKCC project,
reports the results from each of the
ASCCUE: urban planning ................................................................... 44
nine BKCC projects and describes
the contribution each project has
BIONICS: slope stability ...................................................................... 54 made to improving practice in climate
impact studies and adaptation
EHF: heritage ...................................................................................... 58 decision making. Furthermore the
report outlines research challenges
GENESIS: energy ................................................................................ 64 that remain in adapting to a changing
climate in the built environment. This
Impact of climate change on UK Air Transport .................................... 72 report is aimed to inform a range of
stakeholders whether they be policy-
makers, decision-makers, planners
Challenges and research questions for the future ............................... 75
or designers. Details of the research
summarised here can be found in the
List of contacts ..................................................................................... 76 papers and reports cited at the end of
each chapter.


Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate
In 2001 EPSRC and UKCIP
recognised the need for a joint
initiative to stimulate multi-disciplinary
research on the impacts of climate
change on infrastructure, the
built environment and utilities. A
new collaborative approach was
developed for bringing together
researchers and decision-makers.
During late 2001, two stakeholder
workshops were held (in London and
Edinburgh), with the aim of obtaining
stakeholder views and identifying
the main research questions of
concern from the point of view of
decision makers. At the same time,
researchers and stakeholders were
both invited to submit expressions of
interest outlining what they believed
were the main research issues.
Coastal and river flood defence were
excluded from this initiative as they
were being covered elsewhere by
EPSRC and others.
A further workshop in early 2002
brought together the research and
stakeholder communities to develop a
shared research agenda, from which
eight main topic areas emerged:
urban drainage, urban environments
and planning, energy and other
utilities, transport, buildings, heritage,
risk management and societal issues.
With respect to this latter topic, in
addition to inevitable future socio-
economic change, societal issues
BETWIXT: CRANIUM:
High resolution Risk management
weather scenarios
AUDACIOUS: GENESIS:
Urban drainage Energy
ASCCUE:
Urban planning Historic Futures:
Figure 1 The Integrating Framework
include the indirect impacts resulting
from individuals and organisations
themselves responding to a changing
climate. At present, our knowledge of
many of these changes in behaviour
and attitudes is rather speculative.
These issues therefore deserve
further research so that they can
be integrated within adaptation
strategies in each topic area.
EPSRC initially allocated £2million
of research funding for the joint
initiative, and this has been used
to fund consortia-based projects in
five of the areas identified above.
It was also decided to fund further
development of high-resolution
weather datasets based upon the
UKCIP02 climate change scenarios
as a general service to all projects
and further work on socio-economic
scenarios. EPSRC continued to
welcome proposals for climate-
related projects and two further
projects, on earthworks slope stability
and air transport, were admitted into
the BKCC portfolio with funds from
EPSRC’s standard ‘responsive mode’
funding mechanism.
From the outset, it was considered
important that the initiative should
have an integrating framework to link
together the portfolio of individual
projects. This would enable cross-
sectoral issues to emerge and also
BESEECH:
Socio-economic
aspects
Integrating Framework
BIONICS:
Slope stability Sustainable Urban Brownfield Regeneration
Integrated Management
Engineering Impacts of climate
change on air
Heritage transport
provide a basis to share information
on generic topics such as societal
issues. In addition, it was also
considered that a stakeholder forum
was needed to allow decision-makers
the opportunity to become engaged
within the overall initiative, as well
as actively involved with individual
projects.
Concurrently, the Department of
Trade and Industry (DTI) initiated
research on the many issues relating
to adapting buildings for climate
change. To develop improved links
between these projects and those
funded under the EPSRC/UKCIP
initiative, the DTI research projects
were incorporated within the
Integrating Framework (Figure 1).
The collaborative approach to
research involving university
researchers and stakeholders has
been so successful that in 2006
EPSRC decided to fund a follow-on
initiative, Sustaining Knowledge for
a Changing Climate (SKCC), with
the aim of sustaining the community
of researchers and practitioners and
preserving the research capacity that
BKCC had cultivated, with a view to
addressing the many outstanding
research challenges that climate
change still presents to the built
environment, infrastructure and
utilities.
Wider
world
Stakeholder
forum
SKCC
SUBR:IM
DTI PiI
Climate change
projects

 A changing climate
The vast majority of scientists agree that the changes in climate
we are now experiencing portend much more serious changes in
the future.
By modifying the natural radiation
balance of the earth through emission
of greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide, we have initiated a long-
term climatic experiment. As a more
enlightened view emerges, the UK
and other countries are beginning to
develop successful policies to reduce
these emissions, but nevertheless we
are already committed to significant
climate change. Understanding
the consequences of the projected
changes and developing effective
sustainable responses should
therefore be a major research
imperative.
In 2002, UKCIP published its latest
Climate Change Scenarios for the
UK (UKCIP02), based upon analysis
by the Hadley Centre and Tyndall
Centre. These scenarios provided
a range of future climate change
projections that reflect dependence
on the future levels of greenhouse
gas emissions. The UKCIP02 report
describes the changes to climate that
we are experiencing now, such as
the general pattern of warming and
increased intensity of winter rainfall,
and how these may accelerate in the
future. By the 2050s (2031 - 2060),
average annual temperatures are
likely to have increased by 1-3°C,
together with a likely shift towards
drier summers and wetter winters
over much of the country. Other
climate variables, such as radiation,
wind, humidity and evaporation,
will also be influenced and undergo
variations in seasonal changes. Sea
level rise will provide an increasing
challenge to our coastal areas.

Inevitably, such changes will have
major consequences for the built
environment, transport and utilities,
as indeed they are now where
changes are already evident. The
risk from climate-related events such
as flooding, drought, wind-storm
and heat-waves is likely to increase,
posing important issues for planning,
design and maintenance. In addition,
changes in general weather patterns
will require proactive strategies to
ensure and enhance quality of life,
either at work or home, or when
travelling.
Our knowledge of climate change is
rapidly evolving. The IPCC’s fourth
assessment report, published in
2007, reviews the consensus of
global scientific opinion on climate
change, its impacts and potential
mitigation. In 2008 UKCIP will
publish its “UK 21st Century Climate
Scenarios” or UKCIP08 for short.
UKCIP08 will be based on a large
‘ensemble’ of Hadley Centre climate
model runs, and the final results will
also incorporate information from
single model runs of other IPCC
climate models. Together these will
provide a statistical distribution (i.e.
a range of plausible changes with an
estimated likelihood of occurrence)
for each emissions scenario. The
use of ensembles will allow the
UKCIP08 output to be described
in probabilistic terms, which is
better-suited to risk-based decision-
making for adaptation. It will present
opportunities for improved decision
making but also will challenge
decision makers to think carefully
about their attitudes to risk. BKCC
has begun to pave the way for the
use of probabilistic scenarios in the
built environment, infrastructure
and utilities sectors, and the use of
probabilistic scenarios is a major
theme within the SKCC programme.
 Summer Mean temperature Winter
change °C
2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
60N 60N
4.5
Low emissions

Low emissions
4.0
57N 57N
3.5

54N 3.0 54N

2.5
51N 51N
2.0
1.5
60N 60N
1.0
High emissions

High emissions
0.5
57N 57N

54N 54N

51N 51N

9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E

Figure 2 Projected future temperature changes under the UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios for the thirty-year
periods centred on the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The Low Emissions and High Emissions scenarios are both shown to
indicate the range of uncertainty. All of the scenarios show a significant warming which is more pronounced towards the
south-east.
Summer Precipitation Winter
change (%)
2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
60N 60N
30
Low emissions

Low emissions
25
57N 20 57N
15
54N 10 54N
0
51N -10 51N
-15
60N -20 60N
High emissions

High emissions

-30
57N -40 57N
-50

54N 54N
Changes within
‘natural’ variability
51N 51N

9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E

Figure 3 Projected future changes in precipitation under the UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios using the same
scheme as for Figure 2. The scenarios suggest a significant shift towards wetter winters and drier summers in the future.
This could have serious implications with regard to drought in summer and problems related to flooding in winter.
Summer Percent Autumn
change (%)
2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
0
60N 60N
Low emissions

-10
Low emissions

57N -20 57N

-30
54N 54N
-40

51N -50 51N

-60

60N 60N
High emissions
High emissions

57N 57N

54N 54N

51N 51N

9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E 9W 6W 3W 0 3E

Figure 4 Projected future changes in soil moisture content under the UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios using the
same scheme as Figure 2, but for Summer and Autumn. The presence of drier, more compact soils for a much longer
part of the year will have major consequences for built infrastructure. Other seasons of the year show less dramatic
changes, with the possibility of more waterlogged ground in winter due to higher moisture content.


The BKCC Integrating Framework and Stakeholder Forum
The BKCC portfolio of research
projects introduced several
innovative ways of working together
that participants considered
essential to its effective running
and that many believe could be
applied to any group of research
projects working on a common
theme. These innovations were
realised through two mechanisms
– an Integrating Framework and
a Stakeholder Forum. These two
mechanisms were introduced to
enhance the level of integration
among the portfolio of individual
projects and the effectiveness of
stakeholder involvement in the
projects and portfolio as a whole.
They were designed specifically to
encourage the use of common tools
and case studies, and to improve
understanding of the multidisciplinary
research challenges raised by the
need to adapt UK buildings and
infrastructure to a changing climate.
Additionally, through involvement in
these mechanisms it was intended
that there would be an improved
understanding and dissemination/
take-up of the ensuing research
results.

Each of the BKCC projects involved
partnerships of researchers and
decision-makers, who together
shaped the research from the outset.
The intention was to ensure that the
research would deliver results that
could be applied to real-world climate
adaptation problems. To support this
effort:
• An over-arching Stakeholder
Forum was established which
aimed to keep the projects
focussed on solutions-driven
research and provided advice as
to opportunities where the BKCC
outputs could be applied more
widely;
• Systematic arrangements were
put in place to ensure high levels
of integration and data sharing
between the projects at all stages
so that results could be connected
and compared. For instance, a
set of case study locations were
agreed by all projects; and
• Some of the BKCC projects
(e.g. BETWIXT and BESEECH)
provided data and methodologies
that were required by the other
projects contributing to heightened
integration. In addition, the projects
also made use of existing UKCIP
tools and techniques.
The “Integrating Framework” (IF)
was established by UKCIP and
EPSRC and was used to encourage
projects to work together and with
their respective and the broader
stakeholder community, and to share
case study sites. It also included the
establishment of a data management
group to oversee the intelligent
access and sharing of data and a
communications task to facilitate
the sharing of information between
projects and development of the
website. The aims and key functions
of the Integrating Framework were:
Aims of the BKCC Integrating
Framework
a. To maximise the resources of
the individual projects through
collaboration;
b. To manage the projects as a
coherent portfolio; and
c. To ensure the outputs of the
projects reach the widest possible
stakeholder community.
Key functions of the BKCC
Integrating Framework
a. IF meetings to address common
issues (e.g. datasets and
scenarios, project linkages, socio-
economic issues);
b. BKCC intranet and external
website;
c. Monthly internal e-newsletter;
d. Individual project steering groups;
e. Shared progress reports;
f. Shared case study locations;
g. Shared datasets and data
management forum;
h. Identifying and acting on linkages
between projects;
i. Synthesis of findings (short
reports, technical guides); and
j. Conferences and workshops.
Among the advantages of the
Integration Framework (IF) noted by
participants were the following:
• Encouraged consistency across
the project through the use of
common scenarios, tools, case
study sites, data, etc.
• Allowed for the sharing of common
data sets and intelligent access to
required data sets (portfolio rather
than project-by-project requests for
data).
• Introduced communication tools
(IF meetings, newsletters, project
reports and intranet) that were
effective for sharing information
among the projects’ researchers
and stakeholders.
• Facilitated and enhanced
interactions with other projects
and the broader research and
stakeholder communities.
Consideration of this mechanism and
its operation by both researchers
and stakeholders led to the following
recommendations as means of
strengthening the IF:
• Ensure all research team leaders
are aware of requirements of
involvement in the IF and that
provisions for participation are
made within each project’s budget.
• With the objective of
communicating beyond the
immediate BKCC team, it was
suggested that there should be
an external website as well as
intranet.
• Consider data requirements when
identifying stakeholders as they
often have access to unique and
valuable data or information.
• Stakeholders, where keen to do
so, should be involved in the IF as
well as the Stakeholder Forum.
The importance of making the BKCC
research relevant to stakeholders
was realised early in the process.
As mentioned earlier, all projects
involved in this programme of
research were required to identify and
involve in their respective steering
group stakeholders who would benefit
from the research. It was recognised,
however, that this involvement could
result in stakeholders feeling over-
burdened. To address this concern, a
Stakeholder Forum was established
to facilitate “efficient” stakeholder
engagement and minimise
stakeholder fatigue. The objectives
and key functions of this Forum were:
BKCC Stakeholder Forum objectives
a. To better understand the potential
impacts of climate change on the
built environment, transport and
the utilities;
b. To inform stakeholders on how to
successfully adapt to impacts of
climate change; and
c. To inform the research community
on the research challenges in
implementing these adaptation
strategies.
BKCC Stakeholder Forum key
functions
a. Advise on whether BKCC portfolio
is delivering stakeholder-focused,
solutions-driven research;
b. Advise where information from one
project might be of interest more
widely; and
c. Identify dissemination opportunities
for BKCC research and promote
such dissemination through
members’ own networks.
Advantages particularly noted by
participants were primarily related
to its effectiveness as a mechanism
for engaging stakeholders that was
essential for:
• Providing data and site access;
• Connecting to decision-makers
who potentially would be
implementing the research
findings;
• Facilitating the provision of vital
input into design of the project and
methodology;
• Ensuring that outputs were
provided in a useful format; and
• Demonstrating that the projects
were addressing “real-world”
problems, which is sometimes a
funding criterion.
The Stakeholder Forum also
provided an effective mechanism for
stakeholder involvement which in
itself encouraged new stakeholders
to get involved. In addition,
the Stakeholder Forum allowed
researchers to see the outputs
from their research being used and
encouraged them to follow this
through.
Recommendations suggested for
strengthening the Stakeholder Forum
in terms of better achieving its aims:
• Involve stakeholders with a wide
range of expertise.
• Ensure that stakeholders
involved are in a position to make
decisions and have a practitioner
constituency to which they can
refer.
• Stakeholders need to show
ownership of outputs and help
communicate these to the broader
potential users’ communities.
• Ensure stakeholder and researcher
timetables are linked.
• Recognition that stakeholder time,
for the most part, is provided “in-
kind”.
EPSRC and UKCIP believe that the
introduction of these two integrating
mechanisms has significantly
contributed to the success of BKCC.
The resulting positive experience
and the lessons learned through
delivering BKCC are now seen as
providing a model to be applied
for other initiatives. This has been
a learning process that is worth
continuing and refining.

Built EnvironmenT: Weather scenarios for investigation of Impacts and eXTremes
(BETWIXT)
Project leader: Dr Clare Goodess, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia
Project research partners: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia; School of Civil Engineering and
Geosciences, Newcastle University; Hadley Centre; Met Office; Environment Agency.
Project stakeholder partners: Other BKCC projects: ASCCUE, AUDACIOUS, BIONICS, CRANIUM, EHF, GENESIS
Project website: www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/projects/betwixt
The requirement to develop high-
resolution climate change scenarios
tailored to the needs of the BKCC
programme was identified through
discussions with EPSRC, UK Climate
Impacts Programme, academic
partners, stakeholders and project
partners: University of East Anglia,
Newcastle University and the Hadley
Centre.

The primary objective of BETWIXT
was to act as a service to the other
projects in the BKCC programme
and to develop best practice in
the application of climate change
scenarios. This has, however, led to
considerable advances in weather
generator development at both
UEA and Newcastle University.
BETWIXT has also addressed issues
of scenario uncertainty (e.g. by
analysing the reliability of regional
model simulations of wind speed) and
the Hadley Centre has provided new
information on potential changes in
the ‘urban heat island’.
The starting point for climate
scenario construction in the BKCC
programme is the four generic IPCC
SRES emissions scenarios and
the UKCIP02 scenarios (Hulme et
al., 2002) which are currently the
most recent, detailed and reliable
scenarios for the UK. These
simulations, however, had a number
of disadvantages with respect to the
BKCC initiative:
• Limited availability of daily time-
series data for all scenario periods,
and no sub-daily time-series data;
• The spatial resolution of 50 km
x 50 km is coarser than required
for some applications and some
degree of averaging occurs in the
model parameterisation so that
further downscaling, to obtain point
rainfall, for example, is required;
• Limited information in terms of
meeting the needs of some users
for information on extremes;
• Although four emission scenarios
are considered and the scenarios
are based on the average of three
runs of the Hadley Centre climate
model, this still means that the full
range of uncertainty cannot be
quantified;
• Urbanized portions of the land
surface are neglected, thus
ignoring potential changes in the
urban heat island effect and the
impacts of additional heat sources
in cities.
Aims and objectives
• To provide high spatial/temporal
resolution state-of-art climate
scenarios for selected case-study
locations as a common service
to projects funded under the
EPSRC/UKCIP climate impacts
programme;
• To provide continuing support
and advice to the users of these
scenarios.
BETWIXT outputs
BETWIXT successfully developed
high-resolution climate-change
scenarios for key UK locations.
These scenarios are based on,
and consistent with, the UKCIP02
scenarios, but have been developed
for shorter time periods and point
locations, to meet the particular
needs of the built environment,
including information about changes
in weather extremes.
Two types of model were developed
to construct these scenarios:
RainClim software package:
generates rainfall time series for the
present day and future time periods
up to 2100 for 18 sites in the UK, with
time resolutions of 5 minutes and 1
hour. RainClim was made available
for download by BKCC users.
The Climatic Research Unit (CRU)
weather generator: constructs self-
consistent daily time series for the
present day and future time periods
for eight variables (maximum and
minimum temperature, precipitation,
sunshine, vapour pressure, relative
humidity, wind speed and potential
evapotranspiration) and at ten BKCC
case-study locations.
The basis of RainClim and the
CRU weather generator have been
further developed in an Environment
Agency (EA) funded development of
a software tool: EARWIG, EA Rainfall
and Weather Impacts Generator.
The choice of variables, extreme
events, temporal and spatial scales
and geographical locations used in
BETWIXT was strongly guided by the
user community, through an iterative
and two-way process. BETWIXT has
had a major impact in feeding data,
together with advice and guidance on
usage into the other BKCC projects.
Examples include:
• High time resolution extreme
rainfall for the AUDACIOUS project
for urban drainage models;
• Joint precipitation and temperature
series for the CRANIUM project
case-study on snow melt and
• Hourly and daily weather generator
hydropower in Scotland;
• Future climate rainfall series for
the BIONICS project, studying
wetting and drying impacts on
• Hourly and daily weather
embankments;
• Daily weather generator output
for the use in ASCCUE’S spatial
mapping and risk assessment
work for Greater Manchester;
Advances in RainClim
The RainClim software package
was developed by Newcastle
University building on previous
work on the Neyman-Scott
Rectangular Pulses (NSRP) point-
process rainfall model applied in
hydrological modelling. RainClim
consolidates a number of key
advances in the area of rainfall
modelling including:
• Fitting models to current and
projected future rainfall statistics
using an approach of applying
factors derived from regional
climate model (RCM) output;
• Fitting using third-order moments
to obtain better representation of
extremes (Kilsby et al., 2004);
• Disaggregation of 1-hour series
to 5-minute using a second
stochastic process model, crucial
for urban drainage modelling.
A major advance was made in the
linkage of the NSRP rainfall model
with the CRU weather generator:
previous work in this area has
used simpler rainfall models (e.g.
Markov chain) which tend to have
inferior performance and more
limited ability for modification for
future climates, particularly at
the sub-daily level. Consistent
linkage of the two models provides
consistent weather variable series
and facilitates more complex
impacts modelling such as snow
melt estimation. An hourly version
of the weather generator, linked to
RainClim, has also been produced.
Screenshot of the RainClim user
interface.
output to allow projections of future
energy demand patterns in the
GENESIS project;
generator output for Coltishall
and Abbotsinch for use in the
Engineering Historic Futures
case-studies at Blickling Hall and
Brodick Castle.
Advances in the CRU weather
generator
The CRU daily weather generator
was initially developed by Jones
and Salmon (1995) and has been
extensively modified and further
developed in the BETWIXT project.
Precipitation is the fundamental,
primary variable in the weather
generator, from which all the
other variables are derived using
regression relationships or
subsequent direct calculation. A
first-order Markov chain model
(Richardson, 1981) is used. A
major advance in BETWIXT is the
use of a continuous distribution for
precipitation, making this an infinite
state model which is considered
superior to the more usual two-
state model. Once precipitation has
been generated, the secondary
variables (minimum and maximum
temperature, vapour pressure,
wind speed and sunshine duration)
are generated. Finally, relative
humidity and reference potential
evapotranspiration (PET) are
calculated from the generated
variables.
EARWIG
EARWIG (Kilsby et al., 2007)
generates consistent daily series of
rainfall and other weather variables
for 5km grid squares and river
catchments across the UK for the
same climate scenarios as the
BETWIXT models. EARWIG was
developed for strategic projects
under the key Environment
Agency science theme of Climate
Change, including implementation
of the Water Framework Directive,
impact assessments for hydrology,
pollution, water resources and
flooding. EARWIG has been taken
up enthusiastically by consultants,
academics and EA projects in the
first few months of its availability. A
version incorporating further model
outputs (from the EU PRUDENCE
project outputs) is now available,
and is the first stage of planned
developments towards a fully
probabilistic system. This will be
carried out in the context of the
UKCIP2008 which will allow for the
generation of on-demand, specific
weather series for given locations,
emissions scenarios and quantiles
of probability using probabilistic
modelled outputs.

In addition to this scenario Paisley (2080s) Medium High Emissions Scenario
construction work, the Hadley Centre
for Climate Change Research has, Precipitation − January
4
for the first time, implemented a
parameterisation of urban land 3
surfaces and anthropogenic
heat sources in the land-surface

mm
2
scheme of the Hadley Centre
Atmospheric General Circulation 1
Model HadAM3. Seven simulations
0
were performed to evaluate the 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
sensitivity to current/doubled carbon 00 hours
dioxide concentrations, no/current Precip percent wet hours − January
urban areas and current/tripled 0.3
anthropogenic heat sources.
In these simulations, landscape 0.2
effects cause urban areas simulated
%

to be warmer and less humid than 0.1

surrounding non-urban areas as a
result of landscape effects, both at
0
present-day and doubled carbon 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
dioxide levels. Estimated present- 00 hours
day anthropogenic heat sources Precipitation − July
slightly further increase the strength 4
of the urban heat island and dry
island. Tripling of the heat source 3
causes additional urban warming
mm

2
and drying, with large changes in
the variance and skew of the heat 1
island distribution. This suggests that
the present-day heat island is not a 0
good indication of a future heat island 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
under modified forcings, so heat 00 hours
islands cannot be properly accounted Precip percent wet hours − July
0.3
for by simply adding present-day
heat island patterns to gridbox-mean
projections of climate warming. 0.2
%

0.1

0
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
00 hours
Figure 5 Mean annual precipitation and percentage of wet hours projected for
January and July for Paisley near Glasgow for the 2080s under the medium-
high emissions scenario. Observed values (blue crosses) are the observed
mean. The simulated values (red for the 1961-1990 control period and black for
the scenario periods) are the mean of 50 30-year weather generator runs (red/
black dots). The red/black lines and bars show the variability of the 50 series
(plotted as plus/minus two standard deviations around the mean).

Case study Impact of research

For the AUDACIOUS project, high
time resolution extreme rainfall was
needed for urban drainage models.
Figure 5 shows mean annual
precipitation and percentage of wet
hours projected for January and
July for Paisley near Glasgow for
the 2080s under the medium-high
emissions scenario, while Figure
6 shows wet hour persistence and
frequency of wet hour amounts.
Major research impacts of BETWIXT
outputs are evident both within the
BKCC portfolio and more widely in
the UK and European climate impacts
modelling community. Exciting new
developments in ensemble climate
modelling at the Hadley Centre and
in Europe (ENSEMBLES project)
have moved towards a Bayesian
framework where probability density
functions (pdfs) are generated rather
than explicit time series of weather

10
Paisley (2080s) Medium high

60
Wet hour persistence observed values
January simulated values for the control period
frequency

40
simulated values for the 2080s

20

0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
Consecutive hours of preciptation
30
Wet hour persistence
July
frequency

20

10

0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
Consecutive hours of preciptation
120 Frequency of wet hour amounts
January
frequency

80

40

0
0.1-0.5 0.5-1.0 1-2 2-5 5-10 10-25 25-50 50-100
Class (preciptation mm)
80 Frequency of wet hour amounts
July
60
frequency

40

20

0
0.1-0.5 0.5-1.0 1-2 2-5 5-10 10-25 25-50 50-100
Class (preciptation mm)
Figure 6 Wet hour persistence and frequency of wet hour amounts for
January and July for Paisley near Glasgow for the 2080s under the medium-
high emissions scenario.

variables for all possible scenarios.
The successful demonstration of
the stochastic weather generator
approach in BETWIXT has led
to the realisation that a major
role in downscaling and scenario
development can be played by
models such as RainClim and the
CRU weather generator in providing
time series for specific scenarios
or quantiles of pdfs derived from
ensemble climate projections.
Subsequently, the latter model has
been used to construct probabilistic
scenarios of extremes as part of the
CRANIUM project.
Time-series output and summary
output from the CRU daily and hourly
weather generators can be freely
downloaded from the BETWIXT
project website, together with briefing
notes describing the models and
their performance. Outside the
BKCC programme outputs have,
for example, been used by Atkins
consultants to examine the risks of
climate change to London’s transport
systems for the London Climate
Change Partnership, particularly in
relation to flooding and hot weather
infrastructure problems. They have
also been used by the London School
of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine to
study health impacts in London and
the South East, and by the Institute
of Water and Environment, Cranfield
University to explore uncertainties in
simulating groundwater recharge in
East Anglia.
The urban heat island simulations
are described in two briefing notes.
These results suggest that state-of-
the-art climate change projections,
such as those produced using the
BETWIXT weather generators,
may contain systematic biases in
estimates of temperature and relative
humidity in urban areas, as a result of
urban effects being neglected. Future
climate model simulations intended
for use in assessments of potential
climate change impacts in the built
environment should include changes
in urban area and anthropogenic
heat sources. The BETWIXT work
has helped to set the stage so that
future research efforts will be able to
address this important issue.

11
Stakeholder view:
Roger Street, UKCIP
Increased interest in addressing the
implications of a changing climate
both in terms of its scope and nature
of that interest has increased the
demand for information that can
support decision-making. This
increased demand is particularly
reflected in the needs of the built
environment community as became
apparent within BKCC. BKCC
researchers and stakeholders
expressed the need for greater
temporal and spatial detailed
climate scenarios, as well as higher
resolution simulations that would
allow them to explore changes in the
urban heat island.
12
Within BKCC, BETWIXT did not
have direct involvement with the
stakeholder community, however,
they did and are expected to benefit
from BETWIXT results both directly
and as a result of benefits realised by
the other BKCC projects. The latter
benefit may be more visible in that
other projects needs for sub-daily and
higher resolution information were
delivered through BETWIXT allowing
those other projects to achieve their
results. The benefits directly to the
stakeholders will result from access to
the BETWIXT outputs which is seen
by many stakeholders as presenting
the climate change information at
scales that are meaningful to their
decisions, thereby helping them
bridge the gap between theory and
practice. The focus on extreme
events is seen as particularly helpful,
particularly considering that many
stakeholders believe that the primary
vulnerabilities in the built environment
during the next 10-25 years will be
realised through extreme events.
Considering the importance and
vulnerability of urban environments
to climate extremes and change,
BETWIXT’s contribution to
demonstrating the importance of
landscape effects and local heat
sources for simulated climate
change in urban areas sets the
stage for further work in this area.
The importance of having available
information on the urban heat island
has been highlighted by stakeholders
in a number of the major cities
throughout the UK following the
observed impacts during recent
summers. The fact that EPSRC
has funded further research on the
urban heat island further highlights
the importance of this work and the
contribution of BETWIXT.
The development of RainClim and
CRU daily and hourly weather
generators ensured the availability of
high spatial and temporal resolution
temperature and rainfall scenarios in
support of the other BKCC projects.
With these high resolution scenarios,
many of these other BKCC projects
were able to undertake analyses and
provide results to stakeholders that
were deemed to be more meaningful.
This work will continue to benefit
stakeholders and not just those with
concerns for the built environment.
The lessons learned through
development of these new tools will
be used in the development of the
weather generating tool that will be
available through the UKCIP08 users’
interface.
As a supportive project more or
less behind the scenes within the
BKCC suite of projects, the benefits
accrued through BETWIXT may not
be as apparent to all stakeholders,
but as one can see through the
results reported, the benefits were
omnipresent. There is at least one
further benefit from BETWIXT that
will hopefully be a further legacy
effecting the future development
of climate scenarios. BETWIXT
demonstrated the value of ongoing
dialogue between developers and
users of climate scenario information.
It showed how such dialogue can
help bridge the gaps between the
two communities towards ensuring
scientifically appropriate tailoring of
climate change information to support
practical applications.
References
Hulme,M., Jenkins,G.J., Lu,X.,
Turnpenny,J.R., Mitchell,T.D., Jones,R.
G., Lowe,J., Murphy,J.M.,Hassell,D.,
Boorman,P., McDonald,R. and Hill,S.
(2002). Climate Change Scenarios for
the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02
Scientific Report. Tyndall Centre for
Climate Change Research, School of
Environmental Sciences, University of
East Anglia, Norwich, UK. 120pp
Jones, P.D. and Salmon, M. (1995)
Development and Integration of a
Stochastic Weather Generator into
a Crop Growth Model for European
Agriculture, MARS Project. Final
Report to Institute of Remote Sensing
Applications, Agricultural Information
Systems (ISPRA). Contract No. 5631-
93-12, ED ISP GB.
Kilsby, C.G., Jones, P.D., Harpham, C.,
Burton, A., Ford, A.C., Fowler, H.J.,
Smith, A., Wilby, R.L (2007). A daily
weather generator for use in climate
change studies. Environmental
Modelling and Software, in press.
Kilsby C.G., Moaven-Hashemi, A.,
O’Connell, P.E. (2004). Simulation of
rainfall extremes: fitting to observed
annual maxima. First International
Conference on Flood Risk. Institute
of Mathematics and its Applications,
University of Bath, UK, 7-8 September,
2004.
Richardson, C.W. (1981). Stochastic
simulation of daily precipitation,
temperature, and solar radiation.
Water Resources Research 17, 182-
190.

13
Building Economic and Social information for Examining the Effects of Climate
cHange (BESEECH).

Project leader: Professor Paul Ekins, Policy Studies Institute

Project research partners: Policy Studies Institute
Project stakeholder partners: Other BKCC projects: ASCCUE, AUDACIOUS, EHF and GENESIS
Project website: www.psi.org.uk/reserach/project.asp?_id=103

Aims and objectives Background

In order to assess the impacts The overall aims of the BESEECH The UKCIP socio-economic scenarios
of climate change, both climate project were to further the for the UK (UKCIP, 2001) provided
scenarios, describing conditions or understanding of adaptive the starting point for the BESEECH
changes in climatic parameters, and capacity, its determinants and its project. In the development of these
non-climatic scenarios, providing consequences; to provide a service scenarios, the two dimensions of
the wider socio-economic context in to the BKCC portfolio of projects governance and values were taken
which the climatic changes would be by supplying consistent, unifying as fundamental and independent
taking place are required. assumptions and scenarios; and to determinants of future change; with
assist in the integration and synthesis changes in all other variables being
During the early stages of the
of the socio-economic aspects of the seen primarily as a function of the
BKCC programme, a need was
portfolio. particular relationship between the
identified for consistent socio-
dominant socio-political values and
economic information, additional to These aims are reflected in the three
the organisational interests and
that provided in the UKCIP Socio- specific objectives that were set for
configurations. This gave rise to four
Economic Scenarios (UKCIP, 2001), the project, which are:
scenarios: World Markets, Global
which could be used by the individual
• to develop novel means of Sustainability, Local Stewardship and
BKCC projects. In particular, there
assessing the capacity and National Enterprise (Figure 7).
was a need for the scenarios to
willingness of individuals and
provide insights regarding the
organisations in the building sector
capacity of systems in the building
to adapt to climate change;
sector to adapt to climate change
– i.e. their adaptive capacity. Four • to expand and further interpret,
projects were identified where both quantitatively and
this was particularly relevant: the qualitatively, the four socio-
urban environment (ASCCUE), economic scenarios developed
urban drainage (AUDACIOUS), under the UK Climate Impacts
built heritage (Engineering Historic Programme (UKCIP);
Futures) and electricity supply and
• to synthesise the socio-economic
generation (GENESIS).
elements of the BKCC programme.
It was recognised that there was
a need both for further qualitative
development of the scenario
storylines, and for the provision
of more detailed quantitative
projections. Furthermore, there was
a need to develop project-specific
scenarios, focussing on the attributes
of case-study areas of individual
projects, in addition to generic
scenario development that would be
relevant to all BKCC projects.

14
None of these scenarios should be
viewed as predictions or forecasts
of future outcomes. Rather, each
scenario should be viewed as ‘a
coherent, internally consistent, and
plausible description of a possible
future state of the world’ (Carter and
La Rovere, 2001:147), which can
be used as a tool ‘to illuminate the
choices of the present in the light
of ‘possible futures’’ (Godet and
Roubelat, 1996:164). As such, they
are useful tools for assessing future
interdependence
world
markets
consumerism
national
enterprise
autonomy
Figure 7 UKCIP Socio-Economic Scenarios
developments in complex systems
that are characterised by high
scientific uncertainty and insufficient
understanding, making them
inherently unpredictable. In particular,
they provide a useful tool for
scrutinising underlying assumptions
and for identifying potential future
threats and opportunities, and
they facilitate the development of
strategies that are robust under a
variety of circumstances.
global
sustainability
values community
local
stewardship
Characteristics of UKCIP
socio-economic scenarios
The National Enterprise scenario
sees people aspiring to personal
independence and material wealth
within a nationally-based cultural
identity. Liberalised markets
together with a commitment to build
capabilities and resources to secure
a high degree of national self-reliance
and security are believed to best
deliver these goals. Political and
cultural institutions are strengthened
to buttress national autonomy.
In the Local Stewardship scenario,
people aspire to sustainable levels
of welfare in federal and networked
communities. Markets are subject
to social regulation to ensure more
equally distributed opportunities and
a high quality local environment.
Active public policy aims to promote
economic activities that are small-
scale and regional in scope, and acts
to constrain large-scale markets and
technologies. Local communities are
strengthened to ensure participative
and transparent governance.
In the World Markets scenario, people
aspire to personal independence,
material wealth and mobility to the
exclusion of wider social goals.
Integrated global markets are seen
as the best way to deliver this.
Internationally coordinated policy sets
framework conditions for the efficient
functioning of markets. Wherever
possible, the provision of goods
and services is privatised, under the
principle of minimal government.
Rights of individuals to personal
freedoms are enshrined in law.
Under the Global Sustainability
scenario, people aspire to high
levels of welfare within communities
with shared values, more equally
distributed opportunities and a sound
environment. These objectives are
thought to be best achieved through
active public policy and international
cooperation within the EU and at the
global level. Social objectives are met
through public provision, increasingly
at an international level. Markets are
regulated to encourage competition
amongst national players. Personal
and social behaviour is shaped by
commonly-held beliefs and customs.
15
Scenario development
The qualitative and quantitative
development of the scenarios is
described in detail in Dahlström
and Salmons (2005). The following
provides a brief synopsis.
Qualitative development
In developing a qualitative framework
for the scenarios, two theoretical
concepts were combined: adaptive
capacity and grid-group cultural
theory.
Adaptive capacity is the ability of a
system to adapt to the effects and
impacts of climate change, and take
advantage of new opportunities
associated with such change.
Together with exposure, adaptive
capacity is a key determinant of
the vulnerability of a system. The
characteristics of societies that
influence their ability to adapt are
called the determinants of adaptive
capacity and are generally thought
to involve the economic, social,
demographic, technological and
institutional conditions which in
various ways facilitate or hinder
the implementation of adaptive
measures.
Following a literature review on
the factors that influence adaptive
capacities and workshops with
individual BKCC projects to assess
their socio-economic needs, six
broad categories of adaptive capacity
determinants were identified as
an appropriate framework around
which to structure and elaborate the
scenarios. These were: governance,
technology, human capital, equity,
critical institutions and economic
resources and structure.
16
Grid-group cultural theory is Combining the cultural types with the
a framework that individual’s socio-economic scenarios helped
involvement in social life can be by not only providing a general
captured by two dimensions of elaboration of the scenarios, but
sociality: the degree of social the insights from cultural theory
regulation or prescription (grid) and more specifically aided in assessing
the degree of social integration the dominant approaches to
(group). Increasing the grid environmental risk management in
dimension means increasing limits the different scenarios; in speculating
on individuals’ options or moving on the different types of problems
from a more unstructured to a and possible surprises to which the
more structured state. The group different scenarios make themselves
dimension describes the degree vulnerable; in ensuring that a balance
of collectiveness or individualism between negative and positive
and the difficulty of entry into a attributes is considered in all the
certain group: increasing the group scenarios; as well as helping to draw
dimension means increasing the out the social characteristics of the
strength of the group boundaries. scenarios (Figure 9).
Using these two dimensions, five
distinct ways of life/cultural types can
be defined: hierarchists, individualists,
egalitarians, fatalists and autonomists
(Figure 8).
high grid
fatalism hierarchy
(strength of group boundary,
difficulty of entry)
autonomy
low group high group
individualism egalitarianism
low grid
Figure 8 Cultural types
interdependence (high grid)
world global
markets sustainability
(fatalists) (hierarchists)
consumerism values community
(low group) (high group)
national local
enterprise stewardship
(individualists) (egalitarians)
autonomy (low grid)
Figure 9 Combined socio-economic scenarios and cultural types
Quantitative development
There was broad agreement within
the BKCC portfolio that a more
rigorous approach to the estimation
of quantitative indicators for the
scenarios would be beneficial,
with greater clarity regarding the
underlying assumptions. This was
reflected in the approach that
was used in BESEECH for the
construction of various quantitative
projections. In order to ensure
the internal consistency of the
projections, they were generated
using an integrated suite of
spreadsheet modules, driven by a
small number of scenario-specific
parameters which could be directly
related to the respective storylines.
Projections were produced for each
of the four scenarios out to 2061
for three core indicators:
• Population: broken down by
region (NUTS1) / sex / age-
band;
• Gross Value Added (GVA):
broken down by region (NUTS1)
/ sector;
• Households: broken down by
region (NUTS1) and by household
type.
In addition to the projections
for these three core indicators,
it was felt that the inclusion of
some other quantitative indicators
relating to the determinants of
adaptive capacity would help
clarify the storylines. However,
these indicators were not modelled
with the same level of rigour.
Rather they were “guesstimated”
for the different scenarios using
available time series data for the
UK, international comparisons and
future projections where these
were available. Consequently they
should be treated as illustrative,
serving merely to enrich the
narrative storylines.
BESEECH scenarios
Brief synopses of the scenarios
along the six determinants of
adaptive capacity are given below.
Comprehensive storylines can be
found in Dahlström and Salmons
(2005).
National enterprise
Governance
Nature is seen as benign. While
there may be short-term problems,
the dominant view is that the global
equilibrium will be restored in the
long-term. Commitment to climate
change and adaptation options
is lukewarm and management
adopts a laissez-faire attitude
to environmental issues. The
credibility of decision-makers is
medium-low. This individualistic
society is vulnerable to climate
change risks through a general
lack of cooperation.
Technology
The rate of innovation is rather low
due to low R&D investment and
limited international competition,
resulting in a reliance on traditional
technology for environmental
protection.
Human capital
The quality of state education
declines, and private education
increases for those who can
afford it. There is little concern for
environmental or social justice
issues, including climate change
causes and effects. However,
there is some general knowledge
and awareness of climate change
issues and adaptation options.
Equity
Income and other inequalities
grow somewhat, as does social
exclusion. There is little concern
about social equity, and state
provision of education and
healthcare declines. Access to
financial, information, health and
other resources becomes uneven.
Critical institutions
Planning is seen as an important
state activity, carried out by
bureaucrats, to redress market
failures and support or suppress
development. There is some reform
in the planning system, although
the structure of development plans
and development controls remains.
While insurance is widely available,
high premiums in vulnerable areas
mean that uptake becomes more
scattered and uneven.
Economic resources and structure
Growth is a political priority in this
scenario, but falls below the long-
run UK average due to protectionist
policies at the national and regional
levels. In general, there is little
state intervention in the economy,
except in relation to key industries
which are supported against
foreign competition. There are
considerable regional variations
in economic development, with
London and SE experiencing the
highest growth rates.
17
Local stewardship
Governance
Ecosystems are seen to be very
fragile and nature must be treated
with care as small events can trigger
collapse. Commitment to climate
change and adaptation policies is
high, with decision-makers focusing
on the risks of technology and
risks to the environment. There is a
range of planned and autonomous
adaptations. However, there is
relatively little new research, and
no major structural responses. The
credibility of decision-makers is
medium-high, with trust increasing at
more local levels of government. As
this society is characterised by little
acceptance of authority, it becomes
vulnerable to deadlock over important
issues.
Technology
Rates of investment and innovation
in manufacturing are generally
low, although there is a concerted
channelling of efforts towards
‘environmental’ technologies, usable
at small scales, with a stress on
eco-efficiency, quality and durability
in consumer goods. There is a
decline in the quality of large-scale
engineering works, and there are
few technology spill-over effects or
benefits from shared development
expenditure.
Human capital
The education and healthcare
systems are largely publicly funded
and there is an emphasis on
environmental and social justice
issues. Knowledge about the causes
and impacts of climate change
are well-known, and there is a
good general understanding of the
behavioural adaptation options.
Prevailing attitudes to climate change
risks are that they require common
efforts and altruism in order to be
prevented or modified.
Equity
Income and other disparities decline,
as does social exclusion, and there
is a very strong emphasis on equity,
social inclusion, and participatory
democracy. Access to insurance and
forms of risk-sharing is fairly even.
18
Critical institutions
The planning system is scaled
down at the national level, with
fewer resources (or public support)
available for large-scale projects or
enforcement. Central government
issues policy guidance which
is interpreted at the regional
level, although nationally there is
consensus on key issues. The role
of insurance narrows as a range of
alternative risk-sharing arrangements
are developed. There are fairly high
levels of welfare provision, and
significantly higher levels of informal
social security.
Economic resources and structure
Economic growth is not an
absolute political priority, and it
is slow relative to the long-term
average. International trade plays
a relatively less important role in
economic growth, which more evenly
spread across the regions than
today. Smaller-scale production of
goods and services is encouraged,
with SMEs in the manufacturing
sector, cooperatives, and locally-
based financial and other services
prospering.
World markets
Governance
Nature is seen as acting randomly;
there is no point in specific risk
prevention strategies. There is
minimal government intervention,
and the state relies on autonomous
adaptations, of which there are
plenty, particularly in terms of market-
driven innovation. The credibility
of decision-makers is low, although
the electorate is largely politically
inactive. There is unwillingness
to plan ahead, making society
vulnerable to different types of climate
change risks.
Technology
Although public R&D investment
is proportionately low, the rate of
innovation is high and driven by
market priorities. Innovation is
promoted by high investments in
Research Training and Development,
and private-public partnerships. There
is rapid innovation in technologies for
the built environment.
Human capital
The provision and quality of state-
funded education declines, and
access to a good education becomes
very uneven as those who can afford
private education choose that route.
The education system emphasises
skills needed in a highly market-
driven economy. There is very
little appreciation of climate change
causes and impacts, and with regard
to climate change risks, outcomes
are seen to be largely a function of
chance.
Equity
Income and other inequalities
increase substantially. Levels of
social exclusion are high, but concern
about issues of social equity or
inclusion remains at low levels.
Wealthy sections of the population
can afford to protect themselves, but
increasingly, the less well off sections
bear the losses of climate change
impacts.

Critical institutions
The scope of planning in this scenario
is narrowed towards supporting
economic development and urban
design, and the system is not used to
counteract wider social and economic
trends. State activity is minimised,
with several functions privatised
and placed in the hands of technical
experts, and public participation is
greatly reduced. Insurance is widely
available, except in very vulnerable
areas, for those who can afford to.
The welfare system is increasingly
privatised and tied to labour-market
contributions.
Economic resources and structure
Economic growth is a political priority
and GDP growth is rapid by historical
standards. Globalisation proceeds
rapidly as national and international
markets are liberalised. The
dismantling of trade barriers and the
retreat of the state leaves a greater
role for the private sector. Structural
change in the economy is rapid,
with the service sector dominating
economic activity.
Global responsibility
Governance
Nature is seen to be robust within
certain limits, which must not be
exceeded. While commitment to
climate change and adaptation
policies is reasonably high,
governments are more concerned
with the risks of failed diplomacy and
international relations. The credibility
of decision makers is high, as this
type of society values experts and
hierarchies highly. However, this
also makes this society vulnerable
to misplaced trust in authority and
science.
Technology
Innovation focuses on radical
improvements in eco-efficiency
across the board, and there is also
a rapid rate of innovation in other
‘environmental’ technologies, as well
as in traditional sectors. Public, as
well as private, R&D spending is high.
Human capital
There is equal access to high quality
public education, which includes
teaching on social and environmental
values. Understanding of climate
change causes and effects are
reasonably high, while the general
awareness of adaptation options is
medium-high.
Equity
There is a broad consensus on the
need for maintaining and enhancing
social equity, and as a result income
and other inequalities, and social
exclusion, decrease somewhat.
Governments prioritise access to
insurance, and provide assistance
to those who are without such
protection.
Critical institutions
The planning system is strengthened
and its scope expanded, and there
is a lot of respect for planners who
are seen to facilitate the collaboration
needed to transform urban spaces.
Development plans remain essentially
the same as now, but there is an
increase in development controls
and more detailed policy guidance in
key areas related to climate change.
Uptake of insurance is fairly even,
although there are some limitations
and restrictions in place. State
provision of welfare is substantial.
Economic resources and structure
Economic growth continues at around
long-term average rates, with the
economy becoming increasingly
export-oriented. Growth is achieved
by balancing commercial with social
and environmental objectives,
reflecting a concern about long-term
development issues.
Quantitative projections
The size and structure of the
population differs between the
four scenarios, reflecting different
underlying assumptions about
inward migration and mortality rates.
Population growth is fastest in the
World Markets scenario, reaching
70 million by the end of the 2050s.
In contrast, the population under
the Local Stewardship scenario
remains at around 60 million. In all
four scenarios there is a significant
change in the age-structure of
the population, with an increasing
proportion of older people. This is
particularly marked in the Global
Responsibility scenario, where
around 14% of the population are
over 80 years old by the end of the
2050s.
There is even greater variation
between the scenarios in terms of
the number of households and their
composition, reflecting differences in
the underlying assumptions for the
trajectories for average household
size. In the World Markets scenario,
the number of households grows
to almost 36 million by the end of
the 2050s, with over 40% of these
being single-person households. In
contrast, the number of households
under the Local Stewardship scenario
declines (from today’s level) to less
than 23 million, reflecting a reduction
in the proportion of single-person
households to around 15% and a
corresponding increase in “multi-
person” households.
Project-specific scenarios
The generic scenarios provided the
base for the generation of project-
specific scenarios that focused on
the specific socio-economic issues
that had been identified for each
of the four “stakeholder” BKCC
projects. For example, in the
specific scenarios produced for the
ASCCUE project (Salmons and Venn,
2006) the implications for the urban
environment and for the use of urban
green space are expanded upon.
The accompanying quantitative
projections are also tailored to the
needs of the individual projects, with
detailed breakdowns for economic
activity, population and households
being provided for their respective
case-study regions.
19
 aged 80+ aged 65 - 79 aged 15 - 64 aged 0 - 14 Project achievements
A literature review demonstrated
80 that a criticism of socio-economic
scenarios used in climate change
and adaptation research is that they
60 do not provide an adequate insight
into present vulnerability, and the
dynamic processes of vulnerability
million

40 and adaptation (Downing, 2003).

The BESEECH scenarios addressed
this problem by considering factors
that influence adaptive capacity
20
and using these as an organising
framework for the development of
the scenario storylines. In particular,
0 six determinants of adaptive capacity
2001 WM NE GR LS in the built environment were
determined on the basis of a review
scenario
of the relevant literature and the
Figure 10 Population by age band: 2061 under the different scenarios (WM:
requirements of the “stakeholder”
World Markets; NE: National Enterprise; GR: Global Responsibility; LS: Local
BKCC projects.
Stewardship)
A major scientific outcome of the
other couple one person project has been the extension of the
quantitative data set from the UKCIP
40 (2001) data. Quantitative indicators
in the key areas of economic,
demographic and household
30 characteristics have been produced
for each scenario up to the 2050’s,
with detailed breakdowns along UK
million

20 regional, sectoral and demographic

dimensions.
Another outcome has been the
10 production of “project-specific
scenarios” for the “stakeholder”
BKCC projects, in which the generic
0
scenarios have been tailored to meet
the specific needs of the individual
2001 WM NE GR LS projects and their respective case
scenario study areas.
Figure 11 Households by type: 2061 under the different scenarios (WM: The development of qualitative
World Markets; NE: National Enterprise; GR: Global Responsibility; LS: Local data, combined with determinants
Stewardship) of adaptive capacity is a major
project outcome. Now, through the
development of ‘storylines’ illustrated
examples of how economic, social
and environmental issues are
addressed differently in each of the
four scenarios. This information
complements the qualitative data
to give a holistic view of each of the
scenarios and how they respond
individually to the problems posed by
climate change.

20
References
Carter, T. and La Rovere, E.
(2001). Developing and Applying
Scenarios. Climate Change
2001 - Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Contribution
of Working Group II to the
Third Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change. IPCC.
Cambridge, Cambridge University
Press: 145-190.
Dahlström, K. and Salmons, R.
(2005). Building Economic and
Social Information for Examining
the Effects of Climate cHange.
Generic socio-economic scenarios,
final report. Policy Studies
Institute.
Downing, T. (2003). Lessons from
early warning and food security
for understanding adaptation
to climate change: toward a
vulnerability/adaptation science?
In Smith, S., Klein, R. and Huq, S
(Eds). Climate Change, Adaptive
Capacity and Development.
Imperial College Press. pp 71-100.
DTI (2002). Foresight Futures 2020:
Revised Scenarios and Guidance.
London, DTI.
Godet, M. and Roubelat, F. (1996).
“Creating the Future: The Use and
Misuse of Scenarios.” Long Range
Planning 29 (2): 164-171.
Salmons, R. and Venn, A. (2006).
Building Economic and Social
Information for Examining the
Effects of Climate cHange. Project
specific socio-economic scenarios
ASCCUE, final report. Policy
Studies Institute.
UKCIP (2001). Socio-economic
scenarios for climate change
impact assessment: a guide
to their use in the UK Climate
Impacts Programme. Oxford,
UKCIP.

21
Climate change Risk Assessment: New Impact and Uncertainty Methods (CRANIUM)
Project leader: Professor Jim Hall, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University
Project research partners: School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University; Climatic Research Unit,
University of East Anglia; Leeds University Business School; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol
Project stakeholder partners: Arup; Halcrow; Halliburton KBR; Environment Agency; Met Office, Hadley Centre;
Network Rail; Scottish and Southern Energy
Project website: www.ncl.ac.uk/cranium; www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/projects/cranium
Background
The assessment and management
of risk are essential issues for all
decision-makers. By linking the
characteristics of major environmental
hazards, such as extreme weather
events, to the sensitivity and
vulnerability of a system, we can
obtain a more balanced view of the
potential consequences of decisions.
This in turn can assist in the choice of
more effective adaptation responses.
The challenge therefore is to apply
and extend current research on risk
management to incorporate the
effects of climate change, comparing
climate and non-climate related risks.
Uncertainty is inherently related
to risk. Complete prediction of
environmental hazards for decision-
making is never possible, due to
incomplete datasets usually over too
short a time period, and uncertainty
about the future. Therefore “knowing
what we do not know”, the process
of explicitly identifying sources of
uncertainty within the decision-
making process, is critical for making
effective decisions based on risk.
Anticipating climate change inevitably
involves uncertainty. UKCIP does not
provide forecasts or predictions of
climate change, but rather ‘scenarios’
which give a range of values based
upon particular assumptions of
future greenhouse gas emission
levels. Exact predictions of the
future are impossible for a host of
reasons relating to societal and
technological change. In addition,
the climatic response to changing
emission levels is also uncertain
because climate models, although
continually improving, are based
upon an incomplete knowledge of
atmospheric, terrestrial and ocean
dynamics.
Because risk assessment can
provide us with the means to handle
uncertainty in climate change
decision-making, UKCIP and the
22
Environment Agency have developed
guidelines on this subject (Connell
and Willows (2003). Within this
framework however, there exists a
full research agenda to explore and
evaluate different methodologies with
the objective of providing practical
advice to stakeholders. Case studies
are particularly useful in this respect,
because criteria and approaches
to risk assessment can vary widely
amongst different organisations.
A particularly pertinent example
for the built environment is the
choice of design criteria. These are
conventionally based on analysis
of current climate variability, but if
the climate is changing, how do we
decide now on acceptable limits for
structures intended to last a long
time? And, given the uncertainty,
how do we incorporate this into the
pragmatic requirements of the real
world?
Uncertainty clearly means that it is
not possible to determine the level
of future risk as a single value,
and it is misleading to represent
it as such. The appropriate use of
probabilities is therefore particularly
important for bringing the principles
of risk management to climate
change decision-making. Multiple
simulations, which vary input values,
can collectively provide information
on outcome probabilities. Other
techniques, such as Bayesian
analysis, can allow qualitative expert
judgement to be included within the
analysis, which is often required
when reliable data are absent.
Another feature of climate change
risk assessments is that they involve
a chain of related effects, from the
initial climate modification through a
complex web of inter-related factors,
to the economic and societal impact.
At each step in the chain, there
is uncertainty, and this therefore
propagates towards the end of the
chain. Effective responses to complex
issues therefore require being
aware of the ‘cascade’ of uncertainty
through the system. Techniques
such as sensitivity analysis can be
particularly useful in this respect.
Identifying thresholds in the system,
beyond which there is a major
difference in outcome, are also very
important.
At present, although many decision-
makers acknowledge climate
change as a significant factor, they
do not believe there is sufficient/
adequate information available or
feel able to incorporate it within
their everyday decision-making
because of the problems in dealing
with uncertainty. Therefore it is also
important to integrate research with
practical guidance on handling such
uncertainty within decision-making.
Communicating climate change
risk represents a major challenge.
Potential methods include the
use of mathematical expressions
of uncertainty and qualitative
statements, which may be
incorporated in design guidance,
decision support systems and
visualisation tools. All deserve further
research, together with a more
complete understanding of user
perceptions and attitudes in different
risk situations.
Aim
To develop new methods for
analysing uncertainty and making
robust risk-based decisions
for infrastructure design and
management in the face of climate
change.

Objectives
• To explore the cascade of
uncertainty involved in the
construction of climate scenarios
for infrastructure and the built
environment and to develop new
methods for expressing these
uncertainties in an appropriate
form;
• To develop practical methods for
the quantitative assessment of
system sensitivity to uncertain
input variables;
• To demonstrate in climate
adaptation decisions the use of
risk-based multi-criteria decision-
making and methods for decision-
making under severe uncertainty.
CRANIUM has developed new
methodologies for analysing
uncertainty and making robust risk-
based decisions for infrastructure
design and management in the face
of climate change. New methods
for analysing uncertainties in key
climate variables, for example
rainfall and temperature, have
been developed and applied.
CRANIUM has demonstrated how
these climate changes impact upon
the performance of infrastructure
systems, including railways and
hydro-electric power. It has developed
methods to enable this type of
analysis to be carried out faster,
more robustly and comprehensively.
Finally, CRANIUM has investigated
with stakeholders how, in the light
of these insights, decision making
about operation of, or investment
in, infrastructure systems can be
managed or modified to reflect
potential climate change impacts
and, in particular, the uncertainties
surrounding them.
The overall CRANIUM methodology
followed the stages in risk analysis
and decision-making in relation to
climate impacts and adaptation,
from analysis of climate scenarios,
to analysis of system response and
to appraisal of options and robust,
risk-based decision-making. The
methodology was structured around
three tasks: (1) uncertainty analysis
in climate scenarios, (2) analysis of
system response and (3) decision-
making.
Uncertainty analysis in climate
scenarios
Uncertainties in climate scenarios are
related to:
• The forcing emissions scenarios,
i.e. inter-scenario variability;
• The response of different climate
models, i.e. inter-model variability;
• Different realizations of a given
forcing scenario with a given
climate model, i.e. internal or
intra-model variability (which is, in
part, a reflection of natural climate
variability);
• Sub-grid-scale forcings and
processes, i.e. uncertainties due to
the method used for downscaling
to finer spatial/temporal scales
(applicable whether dynamical
and/or statistical downscaling
methods are used).
These sources of uncertainty were
recognised a number of years
ago and are sometimes referred
to as the cascade or explosion of
uncertainty. Techniques for handling
them have also been identified
and recommended. Inter scenario
variability, for example, can be
represented by using multiple
emissions scenarios. Intra-model
variability can be explored using intra-
model ensembles, in which the same
model is run a number of times, with
a different starting point or parameter
values each time.
Despite the recognition of
these uncertainties and ways of
representing them, in practice
these techniques have not yet been
widely or comprehensively used,
particularly with respect to regional
climate scenarios. The UKCIP02
scenarios, for example, are based
on four emissions scenarios and a
single suite of climate models, hence
they only reflect a small part of the
uncertainty range.
The growing availability of large
climate model ensembles permits a
more comprehensive approach to
the assessment of uncertainty. The
size of these ensembles reflects
the complexity and computing time
required to run the different types
of climate model. Multi-model
ensembles encompassing dozens
of regional climate model runs were
performed during the European
Union-funded PRUDENCE project
for example. Larger ensembles are
possible for coarser scale global
climate models - encompassing
hundred of runs in the case of the
Hadley Centre ‘perturbed physics’
QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainties in
Model Predictions) simulations, and
thousands of runs in the case of the
climateprediction.net initiative.
These large ensembles permit
the construction of probabilistic
climate scenarios, which are now
acknowledged by the climate
modelling and scenario community
as the way forward. The UKCIP08
scenarios will, for example, provide
probability distributions to represent
the uncertainties in key climate
variables. This approach is also
being pursued in the European
Union-funded ENSEMBLES project.
ENSEMBLES work on probabilistic
regional scenarios includes, for
example, assessment of weighting,
pattern-scaling and ensemble-
averaging techniques.
Exploring inter-model uncertainties
in scenarios of UK weather extremes
using a daily weather generator
In this example, inter-model scenario
uncertainties are explored using
output from 10 different European
regional climate models (RCMs).
The RCM runs were undertaken
as part of the PRUDENCE project.
Most of the RCMs were forced by
the Hadley Centre global climate
model (the model used in UKCIP02),
but three of the RCMs were also
forced by a different global model
– giving a total of 13 RCM runs, all
for the IPCC SRES A2 emissions
scenario (equivalent to the UKCIP02
medium high scenario). Changes in
mean temperature and precipitation,
together with changes in their
variability, were taken from each
RCM run for the grid square nearest
to each UK location of interest, and
used to perturb the parameters of the
CRU weather generator developed
for the BETWIXT project. For each
of the 13 RCM runs, the weather
generator was run 100 times.
Seasonal indices of extremes were
then constructed from the daily time
series.
The results are plotted as probability
density functions (PDFs), for the
number or magnitude of extreme
events. Each individual PDF is
constructed using 3000 values (i.e.
30 years x 100 weather generator
runs).
23
probability density 0.20 Winter 0.20 Winter

probability density
0.15 0.15

0.10 0.10

0.05 0.05

0 0
0.20 Spring 0.20 Spring
probability density

probability density
0.15 0.15

0.10 0.10

0.05 0.05

0 0
0.20 Summer 0.20 Summer
probability density

probability density

0.15 0.15

0.10 0.10

0.05 0.05

0 0
0.20 Autumn 0.20 Autumn
probability density

probability density

0.15 0.15

0.10 0.10

0.05 0.05

0 0
0.20 Annual 0.20 Annual
probability density

probability density

0.15 0.15

0.10 0.10

0.05 0.05

0 0
0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80
number of hot days number of hot days

reference period (1961 - 1990) scenario period (2071 - 2100)

thin coloured lines: scenario period (2071 - 2100) - ensemble members

Figure 12 Probability of getting a certain number of hot days (Tmax >90th percentile) for Elmdon under the medium
high emissions scenario

24
Figure 12 shows the probability of
getting a certain number of hot days
(defined as Tmax > 90th percentile)
for Elmdon (Birmingham). The heavy
black line in both left- and right-hand
panels shows the weather generator
results based on observations for
the reference period 1961-1990. In
the left-hand panel, each of the 13
coloured lines represents weather
generator results for the 2080s based
on a different RCM run. In the right-
hand panel, the red line shows the
ensemble average, i.e. the average of
the 13 coloured lines.
For all RCM runs, the PDF shifts to
the right – indicating an increased
probability of more frequent hot
days in the 2080s for the A2
emissions scenario. This shift to
the right is greater in summer than
other seasons. The left-hand panel
indicates the spread across results
based on individual RCM runs. Two
RCM runs give larger changes than
the others – these are forced with two
different global climate models to the
others. The demonstration that the
choice of driving model can increase
the width of the PDF indicates the
importance of considering inter-model
uncertainty in the forcing model as
well as the downscaling model.
As well as being shifted to the
right, the future PDFs are broader,
indicating the range of uncertainty in
the projections. If we just consider
the mode or centre point of the
distribution, however, the ensemble
average indicates a change in
summer from around 5 hot days
(i.e. days with Tmax > 24.3°C in
this case) in the reference period
to about 40 days in the 2080s. This
represents a major increase in the
risk of occurrence of hot days. For
comparison, the results for Elmdon
produced as part of the BETWIXT
project (based on the Hadley Centre
RCM – a slightly different version
of which is used here), indicate an
average of 45.6 summer hot days.
Further results are avaialable from
www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/projects/
cranium
Methods for estimation rainfall
extremes in non-stationary climates
A wide range of engineered
structures, from large dams through
flood defences to urban sewer
systems, require the estimation of
the frequency and magnitude of
“extreme” rainfall events in their
design. This job is complicated by:
• Short observed record lengths
and natural variability, causing
uncertainty;
• Existence of possible trends in
extremes over the period of record;
• Likelihood of continuing or
increasing trends over the next
decades brought about by climate
change.
When climate variability and trends
occur simultaneously causing
changes in rainfall extremes over
time, it is difficult to disentangle the
confused signals. Furthermore, the
usual methods for estimating the
frequency of rainfall extremes only
strictly apply in stationary conditions,
where no trend is present. CRANIUM
has therefore developed methods for
estimating rainfall extremes in non-
stationary situations. This has been
applied first of all by way of detection
of observed trends, and secondly
in order to estimate the detectability
of trends to allow for example the
estimation of how long a record is
needed for a trend of a certain size to
be confidently detected.
The usual approach to extreme value
analysis is to take annual maximum
(AM) series of daily rainfall, i.e.
the highest daily rainfall amounts
observed in each calendar year,
and fit a probability distribution, e.g.
Gumbel or Generalised Extreme
Value (GEV). UK standard practice
(e.g. as embodied in the Flood
Estimation Handbook) has been to
use the L-moment methodology of
Hosking and Wallis (1997), and to
consider the data set to be stationary
in time. In CRANIUM we have
considered the case of data with a
linear trend in time, so the method
of Maximum Likelihood Estimation
(MLE) has been adopted as it allows
the fitting of models with linear
trends more flexibly than L-moments.
For more extreme storms, and
for more general cases including
climate change, sufficient data do
not exist, and it has been necessary
to generate “synthetic” AM data to
develop and validate the methods.
The approach taken has been to
generate rainfall data corresponding
to a GEV distribution, and apply a
known time varying increase factor
to one or more parameters of the
distribution so that an increasing
trend is obtained in the AM series.
Figure 13 shows the power of
detection for data sets of varying
length with examples of the required
trend in the scale parameter of the
GEV distribution to allow detection
over a realistic time scale (around
100 years). The analysis quantifies
the critical dependence of the power
of detection on the record length,
allowing us to approach the climate
change detection issue armed with
realistic estimates of either how large
a trend is required over a fixed period
(say 30 years) or how long a record is
required to detect a trend of a certain
size. Applied to 40-year observed
series of annual maximum rainfall at
sites in the UK, at durations of 1,5
and 10 days, revealing evidence of
trends, with stronger signals at higher
durations.
25
 Trend in scale = 2% of starting level System response to uncertain
Test at 5% significance level climate scenarios
1.0 Having analysed the uncertainty in
climate scenarios, the next stage
in impact analysis is to assess
0.8
the response of the system under
Scale Trend Test consideration, to uncertain forcing.
0.6 Location Trend Test Climate change is not the only
power

Shape Trend Test

uncertain factor determining system
0.4
performance in the future, so the
effects of climate uncertainty need
to be considered alongside the
0.2 many other uncertainties in system
response.
0 The CRANIUM project developed
0 50 100 150 200 250
length of data set (years) a number of advanced methods
for analysing the uncertainties in
Figure 13 Power of detection of trends in GEV parameters using synthetic system response and demonstrated
generated annual maximum data for the scale parameter them in the context of real life case
studies of slope instability, flooding
and water resources, three important
potential impacts of climate change.
The emphasis was, however, upon
methodological advances, so the
methods are readily transferable to
other domains.
The slope stability analysis made
use of the CHASM combined slope
hydrology/stability model (Wilkinson
et al., 2000, 2002). The model was
able to demonstrate the effect of
uncertainty in slope stability analysis,
including impacts of climate-
induced changes in hydrology,
evapo-transpiration and vegetation
species/growth rate. Two methods
for analysing large system response
problems were investigated:
reduction of dimensionality using
variance based sensitivity analysis
(VBSA) and reduction of complexity
using statistical emulators.
Reduction of dimensionality
– Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis
(VBSA)
In the context of slope stability, those
with responsibility for the safety of
slopes need to understand which
factors contribute most to the risk
of slope failure in order to design
appropriate maintenance and
remediation strategies. The motive of
this study was to examine the relative
importance of rainfall variability and
potential future changes in rainfall
as compared with uncertainty in
other variables that determine slope
stability.

26

VBSA quantifies the contribution
that each input factor in a model
makes to the variance (a measure
of statistical dispersion, indicating
how possible values are spread
around an expected value) in the
model output. VBSA methods are
model-independent and applicable
to non-linear and non-monotonic
models, unlike methods based on
regression or correlation analysis
(Saltelli et al., 2000, 2004). VBSA
was used to identify the dominant
model sensitivity and to provide
diagnostic insights into the model
behaviour of the CHASM model.
With increasingly complex modelling
systems being used in geotechnical
analysis as well as other engineering
domains, individual components of
the models are generally understood,
yet in combination behaviour may be
difficult to detect. VBSA provides the
modeller with concise insights into
model interactions. Factors whose
influence on uncertainty is small, can
be fixed and subsequently eliminated
from future uncertainty analysis,
whereas factors with a dominant
contribution to uncertainty can be
investigated further (Hamm et al.,
2006).
VBSA provided quantified evidence to
support intuitions based on scientific
principles, for example, the dominant
effect of friction angle on slope
stability in non-cohesive soils, and
also revealed more surprising effects
such as the minimal influence of
rainfall return period on hydrologically
induced slope stability. Variability
in the occurrence of failures was
attributable more to the uncertainty
in soil strength rather than the
uncertainty in rainfall.
Reduction of complexity – statistical
emulators
Traditional techniques for uncertainty
and sensitivity analysis are often
based on several thousand model
runs (Rubio et al. 2004, Saltelli et al.,
2004). However, given the run time
of moderate and high complexity
models, such analysis may not be
possible. This has raised the question
of whether fast emulators of such
models can be developed that allow
the outputs to be approximated
without the computational cost.
The objective of this work was
to provide an accessible proof of
concept for environmental scientists
and engineers and to empirically
evaluate the emulator approach.
The emulator used was the freely
available (University of Sheffield,
UK) GEM-SA software (Gaussian
Emulation Machine Sensitivity
Analysis). The emulator was
evaluated quantitatively against a set
of model runs from CHASM, driven
under varying rainfall conditions.
Evaluation of the emulator against the
CHASM output took two forms. First,
the emulator output was evaluated
against the output from the actual
model runs. Second, the uncertainty
assessment and sensitivity indices
obtained using the emulated model
output are evaluated against those
obtained using the actual model
outputs.
For relatively small training samples
the emulator produced accurate
predictions for factor of safety.
However, the emulator did not provide
accurate predictions for failure mass,
although better results were found for
larger sample sizes.
Decision making under severe
uncertainty
Following insights on identification of
potential climate impacts on system
performance and understanding the
associated uncertainties, CRANIUM
addressed how decision making
about operation of, or investment
in, the system in question could
be managed or modified to reflect
potential climate change impacts and
the uncertainties surrounding them.
Decisions responding to climate
change impacts need to not only
recognise the direct systems
response uncertainties, but also
the existence of multiple evaluation
criteria and that decision making
is embedded in a dynamic social
context reflecting multiple perceptions
and hence perspectives of different
stakeholder groups.
Three strands of work were
conducted in this field:
• Review of decision making
approaches;
• Use of climate change information
by decision makers;
• Info-gap decision theory.
Decision-making approaches
This work reviewed decision-
making approaches, assessing their
relevance to particular decision
contexts, with a focus on dealing with
severe uncertainty. A decision-making
process covers many stages from
defining the problem to be addressed
to setting over-arching objectives,
goals and more specific criteria by
which options will be judged, to
setting out the various options and
estimating their performance or
impacts. This work did not address
all parts of the decision process but
considered the possible ways forward
once the point has been reached
where there are clear objectives and
evaluation criteria and a shortlist of
feasible options.
The three main characteristics that
define the type of decision problem:
• The way in which the future is
viewed or represented;
• The nature of the salient
uncertainties;
• The approach to evaluation of
decision options.
Table 1 provides a summary of the
decision contexts considered and
highlights the methods that would be
appropriate to use in each.
27

View of the Probabilities Evaluation Time and Suitable methods of
future available? Type? of outcomes resources available of decision analysis

Scenarios None possible Single indicator Limited Pay-off matrix for

different scenarios/
actions, linked with
strategies such as
Maximin, Minimax regret

Scenarios None possible Range values Limited Pay-off matrix (with ranges)
reflecting uncertainty and appropriate
decision strategies

Scenarios None Ordinal values Limited Apply strategies as

above to ordinal data.
Output is ordinal

Very many scenarios None Single indicator Extensive Robustness

or multi criteria analysis

Mutually exclusive, Yes, but not known Single indicator Limited Table of outcomes,
exhaustive set of linked with appropriate
possible future states decision strategies

As above Yes, but not known Single indicator Moderate Indifference probability
of utility analysis. Robustness
analysis with respect
to different probabilities

As above Yes, interval Single indicator Limited SEU analysis based on

probabilities of utility point probabilities derived
available from interval probabilities

Table 1 Summary of decision contexts and appropriate methodologies

Summary of decision contexts and
appropriate methodologies
Most of the methods described
have been treated as though the
performance of each action for each
future state could be described using
a single indicator. In reality many
complex decisions will use a variety
of criteria for evaluation, which may
not combine naturally into a single
measure of utility or value.
There exist many different ways
to combine an evaluation across
many criteria into a single “score”,
of which the simplest is probably
to assign a weight to each criterion
according to its importance, and then
to sum the individual criteria scores,
each multiplied by the appropriate
weight. Although the calculation is
simple to perform, the assignment
of weights to the criteria can be
beset by difficulties, particularly in
the many cases where the criterion
has no equivalent market value, is
qualitative in nature and may be
valued differently by different sectors
of society.
A more sophisticated approach uses
the weights of the evaluation criteria
(framed as fairly general objectives)
to represent different priorities that
would exist in different future states.
For example, the uncertain future
states might include the possibility
of sea level rise and less rainfall.
The options could be evaluated in
terms of their ability to deal with
the consequences of each of these
situations. The overall performance
of the options in a particular future
state would be represented by a
weighted sum of their performance,
using weights appropriate to the
future state. If the future state being
evaluated were one in which the
sea level rose, but rainfall remained
constant, then the ability to deal with
sea level rise would be given a higher
weight than the ability to deal with low
rainfall when the overall performance
of the options was evaluated, and so
on. The result of applying this method
is a pay-off matrix of option scores
which can then be dealt with in one of
the ways outlined above, depending
on the nature of the future states. The
advantage is that the criterion weights
are sensitive to the different future
states rather than remaining static or
being divorced from the consideration
of different possible futures.
Use of climate change information by
decision-makers
This part of the project analysed
the institutional, organisational and
individual drivers of and barriers to
the management of climate change
uncertainty. This involved qualitative
research based on interviews
with engineers and managers
responsible for infrastructure and built
environment projects.
Integration of climate change
information in the management of
long-term projects was found to be
ad-hoc. Lack of integration of climate
change information was found to
be due to organisational decision-
making practices being ‘climate
change unfriendly’ and incapable of
addressing uncertainty. ‘Stakeholder
Champions’ within stakeholder
groups were found to be powerful
mechanisms leading organisations to
address climate change.

28

The study offers the following
recommendations:
• To encourage organisations to
adopt new reporting procedures
that capture the total lifespan
cost of projects and that explicitly
request an assessment of climate
change impacts;
• To promote more training in
environmental issues in civil
engineering educational curricula.
This will ensure civil engineers
are more comfortable with
climate change in formation,
more aware of the environmental
consequences of their activity,
and therefore should increase the
probability that long-term projects
in the built environment address
climate change;
• Governments to support
professionals having training in
environmental issues.
residential
properties
Figure 14 Cross-sectional view of flood defence options
1.50
uncertainty in energy loss, α
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0
3.3
Figure 15 Effect of increasing hydraulic uncertainty upon predictions of flood
depth
Future research about climate change
should address the mechanisms
through which a corpus of knowledge,
such as the scientific knowledge
about the use of climate change
information (e.g. assessment of risk
and adaptation options), spreads into
an organizational field, and is turned
into usable practices for practitioners,
(e.g. decision support methods
for managing climate change
uncertainty). Such analysis should
help organisations promoting climate
change adaptation to shape policies
that will increase the use of climate
change information and the number
of long-term projects addressing
climate change.
levee
main river
channel stage
3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2
stage (m depth)
Info-gap decision theory
Ben-Haim (2001) proposed info-gap
decision theory for use in situations
of severe uncertainty, especially
in cases where it may be difficult
to justify any particular probability
distribution. Info-gap is a theory of
robust decision making which helps
weigh up immunity to the harmful
impacts of uncertainty against the
potential for beneficial impacts.
CRANIUM demonstrated the use
of an info-gap approach to support
robust flood management decisions.
It was applied first to a hypothetical
river channel and then to a site on the
upper reaches of the River Thames
(Figure 14). In both cases hydraulic
modelling was used to simulate river
flooding and compute flood depths in
the floodplain.
Three potential flood defence options
were selected for comparison, each
having an associated cost based on
an estimate of the value of material
involved in its construction:
• Levees adjacent to the channel:
£5.7 million;
• Reprofiling to widen the channel:
£1.4 million;
• Hybrid option incorporating both
levees and reprofiling: £7.1 million.
For each option the expected annual
damage was calculated using the
hydraulic model and standard
procedures.
Flood modelling is focused upon
extreme events so inevitably
there are limited data available
for calibration of models. In order
to represent uncertainties in the
approach this study used an info-gap
model to represent two important
potential sources of uncertainty:
• Inaccuracies in the hydraulic model;
• Inaccuracies in estimates of the
frequency of extreme flood events.
The latter of these two uncertainties
includes the effect of climate
uncertainties.
Figure 15 illustrates the effect of
increasing hydraulic uncertainty upon
predictions of flood depth. At zero
uncertainty (a = 0) the water depth
can be calculated precisely. For a>0
the existence of uncertainty yields
an interval range of values for the
water depth. The envelopes of flood
depth can then be transformed and
aggregated to gain estimates of the
expected flood damages at different
horizons of uncertainty.
29
 Figure 16 illustrates the robustness as this indicates the ability to cope Implications for policy and practice
curves for the three options. These with uncertainty. A relatively flat New methods have been developed
are the minimum return (in terms of robustness curve, by contrast, in the CRANIUM project for the
net benefit) that can be guaranteed indicates that the performance of the rigorous quantified treatment of
for a given value of a. As the horizon option, whilst perhaps attractive at uncertainty, which do not rely on
of uncertainty increases the level zero uncertainty, could decay rapidly the ability to estimate probability
of return that can be guaranteed as uncertainty increases. density functions in circumstances
reduces. At around a = 0.4 there is a where it may not be reasonable to
Another major source of uncertainty
reversal of preference ordering and do so. Info-gap theory is one such
in flood risk calculation is in the
the channel widening option becomes quantified theory of robustness,
assumed flow frequency distribution
the preferred option. The difference which demonstrates the level of
(Figure 17). The frequency of future
is only slight and it is not until a = 1.3 performance that design options can
floods is particularly uncertain due
that the fragility of the levee solutions be guaranteed to yield at different
to the potential effects of climate
becomes clear, with a rapid decay horizons of uncertainty. It therefore
change. The CRANIUM project
in performance, whilst the channel helps to identify options that are
therefore developed a new hybrid
widening solution is more robust. robust to uncertainty. Interpretation
Info-gap method to represent
A steeper curve indicates a more of the results of info-gap analysis
the uncertainties in future flood
robust option. An ambiguity adverse requires careful judgement on the
frequencies and demonstrated the
decision maker will prefer an option part of decision makers about their
approach in the example described
with a relatively steep robustness, attitudes to uncertainty and the level
above.
of robustness that they are seeking
to achieve. This will vary from project
to project and will depend upon
the nature of the uncertainties in
question.

1.4

1.2

1.0
uncertainty

0.8

0.6
levee 2.5m high
0.4
channel 10m wider
0.2 levee and channel widening

0
-0.20 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0 0.5 1.0 1.5
nett present value that can be guaranteed £s x 107
Figure 16 Robustness curves for the three potential flood defence options

1.0 0.5
probability of exceedence

0.8 0.4

0.6 0.3

0.4 0.2

0.2 0.1

0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000
discharge (m3s-1)
Figure 17 Flood frequency curves showing bounds of uncertainty at different
values of a

30
Case studies
Three case studies have
demonstrated the use of the methods
developed and tested in CRANIUM.
These relate to common real-life
problems.
Dam operation
Two aspects of dam operations have
been considered within CRANIUM,
with general application across the
UK, but also a particular focus on
schemes operated by Scottish and
Southern Energy (SSE), one of the
UK’s major energy providers. The
first aspect is that of amount and
seasonality of rain and snowfall,
whilst the second is that of dam
safety under the threat of overtopping
by very large flood events.
Seasonality of snow and rainfall
The impact of changes in future
precipitation, its seasonal distribution
and whether it falls as rain or
snow, are crucial to the design and
operation of hydropower schemes,
such as the new scheme at
Glendoe, near Fort Augustus, being
commissioned by SSE, Scotland’s
first major hydropower scheme for
40 years. Reliable yield from such a
scheme is preferentially provided by
runoff distributed evenly throughout
annual precipitation (mm)
the year, rather than in intense
bursts which may be beyond the
capacity of the turbines. The slow
steady release associated with
snowmelt is beneficial. An impacts
study was therefore carried out for
the Glendoe scheme assessing
changes in precipitation statistics
for a range of scenarios using the
weather generator and rainfall model
developed in BETWIXT. Results
showed a modest decrease through
to the 2080s in annual and summer
precipitation, with a small increase in
winter precipitation. Figure 18 shows
the trends estimated for the Medium
High UKCIP02 scenario.
snow amount (mm)
More dramatic changes are found
for snow, which currently constitutes
around 20% of the annual total
precipitation. Due to the increase in
mean temperature of around 2.8°C
(Medium High, 2080s) there are
substantial reductions in snowfall
and number of days with snow lying
for the 5x5 km grid square enclosing
the Glendoe scheme (Figure 19).
Estimates of reductions in snow
amount for the Low scenario 2080’s
are less severe (158 mm, 11% of
total, whilst the changes for the High
scenario are correspondingly more
severe (64 mm, or 5%). Overall,
the changes in amount and type of
precipitation outlined above are likely
to impose only slight reductions in
the operating capacity of the scheme.
However, larger additional reductions
of some 10 to 20% in runoff are
likely due to the increase in Potential
Evapotranspiration from some 400 to
650 mm annual total (Medium High,
2080s).
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400 annual
winter
1350
summer
1300
1961 - 90
Figure 18 Seasonality of precipitation for Glendoe (Medium High scenario)
300
200
100
snow amount
snow days
0 0
1961 - 90
Figure 19 Decrease in snowfall for Glendoe (Medium High scenario)
Hydrological safety of dams
The second aspect is that of
hydrological safety, where dams
must be designed to pass a
“Probable Maximum Flood” or 10,000
year return period flood without
overtopping. There is concern that
storms causing such large floods
may become more frequent in future
climates. The methods developed
in CRANIUM have been used to
investigate whether in the first
instance there have been any trends
on the recent observed climate,
before going on to make estimates of
the magnitude of future changes.
Figures 20 and 21 show some results
of applying new trend detection
methods to 40 year records of 1 day
and 10 day annual maximum rainfall,
showing indications of increases
in extremes in the NW of the UK.
Whilst this is broadly consistent with
changes predicted by climate models,
care must be taken in the attribution
of these trends, as they may equally
be caused by natural variability.
600
winter and summer (mm)
500
400
300
200
100
0
2020s 2050s 2080s
time slice
60
50
40
snow days
30
20
10
2020s 2050s 2080s
time slice
31
 Water resources
N Sites indicating a trend A case study undertaken with the
0.00 - 0.80 Environment Agency examined the
0.80 - 0.85
impact of climate change on water
0.85 - 0.90
0.90 - 0.95 availability in the Thames catchment,
0.95 - 1.00 and in particular on the conditions
Surface indicating a trend attached to new abstraction licences.
0.00 - 0.80 In order to protect the river’s water
0.80 - 0.85 resources, the granting of new
0.85 - 0.90 consumptive abstraction licences
0.90 - 0.95
is conditional upon the flow at
0.95 - 1.00
no data Kingston exceeding a fixed level. The
case study illustrates the effects of
Likelihood Ratio test results uncertainty in climate model outputs.
indicating a trend in 1 day The study demonstrates how to use
annual maxima rainfall the types of multiple probabilistic
(0 = 0%; 1 = 100%)
scenarios and weather generator
outputs that will be made available in
the UKCIP08 scenarios.
The study used the Environment
Agency’s rainfall-runoff model for
the Thames. The stochastic weather
generator (EAWIG) was adapted
to include the output from thirteen
regional climate models obtained
from the PRUDENCE project.
Simulations were conducted of the
flow levels at Kingston for each of the
climate model outputs. The resulting
probability distributions for abstraction
availability were combined, with the
distributions weighted according to
Figure 20 Sites showing trends in 1 day annual
a Bayesian description of climate
model skill in representing current
climate. The study explored different
N Sites indicating a trend
0.00 - 0.80
approaches to weighting the outputs
0.80 - 0.85 from multiple climate models and
0.85 - 0.90 demonstrated the effect upon a
0.90 - 0.95 typical water resource management
0.95 - 1.00 decision.
Surface indicating a trend
0.00 - 0.80 The results of the analysis showed
0.80 - 0.85 a substantial decrease in predicted
0.85 - 0.90 availability of water for abstraction
0.90 - 0.95 in the Thames, although there
0.95 - 0.999
is considerable variability in the
no data
probability distributions produced by
Likelihood Ratio test results different climate models (Figure 22).
indicating a trend in 10 day However, the results demonstrate
annual maxima rainfall that the majority of climate outputs
(0 = 0%; 1 = 100%)
used in this project show a somewhat
less serious situation with regard
to water resources in the south
of the UK than previously implied
in the UKCIP02 scenarios. Water
resource management decisions
need to be adapted to account for
probabilistic information. We have
also demonstrated how info-gap
analysis can be used to explore the
effect of different assumptions made
in the combination of multiple climate
model outputs.

Figure 21 Sites showing trends in 10 day annual maximum rainfall

32
probability that abstraction is permitted
on no more than this number of days
Figure 22 Predicted annual number of days of permitted abstraction from the
Thames under the medium high emissions scenario in 2080s
0.45
probability of system failure
1.0 Rail system reliability
0.9 A case study undertaken with
0.8 Network Rail examined the system
0.7 reliability of part of the rail network
0.6 to rainfall-induced landslides,
in order to investigate whether
0.5
predictions can be made about
0.4 changing maintenance priorities with
0.3 a changing climate. The part of the
0.2 system studied was the line between
0.1 London and Bristol, where high
winter rainfall rates, combined with
0
plastic clays and nineteenth century
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
embankment construction methods,
number of days
lead to intermittent imposition of
maximum permitted ukcip02 speed restrictions caused by landslip
predicted from current climate model historical availability with this condition
and subsequent inspection and
PRUDENCE HadRM3 models PRUDENCE ECHAM4 models
remediation work.
A mathematical model for system
failure was formulated, together
with a model to describe the spatial
wetter initial moisture profile variation of rainfall. These were
dryer initial moisture profile used together with a pre-existing

0.40 model for slope stability, and the

EARWIG weather generator (based
on the BETWIXT work), to simulate
0.35 the effect of simultaneous rainfall
on idealised embankments at
0.30 locations with high risk of landslides,
both in current and in predicted
future climates, using the UKCIP02
0.25 scenarios.
The results of analysis of the
0.20
system reliability showed that slope
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
stability is dependent on long-term
year
accumulated rainfall, and that
Figure 23 Changing probability of system failure with climate change: note the probability, and likely timing
that the different values at 2080 correspond to different emissions scenarios of network failure are critically
dependent on slope moisture profile
at the end of the summer (Figure 23).
0.10 Under the assumptions taken, it was
probability of failure at each location

wettest initial moisture profile

0.09 wetter initial moisture profile shown that the probability of system
dryer initial moisture profile failure is expected to decrease with
0.08
dryest initial moisture profile predicted climate change, and that
0.07 while failures are currently more likely
0.06 to occur at the westerly end of the
line with increasing differentiation
0.05
for dryer slopes at the end of the
0.04 summer, failure will increase still
0.03 further with climate change (Figure
0.02
24).

0.01 Results of the system simulation

(Manning et al. 2007) were compared
0
both with the experience of Network
160 150 140 105 95 85 80 Rail engineers, and with recorded
distance west of London (km) delay information in the light of
historical daily rainfall records. It
Figure 24 Changing distribution of failure locations with climate change
is not clear whether the predicted
future hot dry summers would lead
to different dominant failure modes;
outcomes of the BIONICS project are
awaited to confirm this.

33
Stakeholder View:
Ian Meadowcroft, Environment
Agency.
Stakeholders within CRANIUM are
mainly concerned with infrastructure
management. They need the ability
to make informed decisions about
the management of major assets and
asset systems. Decisions can affect
future risks – in social, environmental
and business terms – many years
into the future and can have major
implications in terms of investment.
The Environment Agency, for
example, currently spends around
£400m a year building, maintaining
and replacing flood defences. Many
of these are expected to have a
useful lifetime of 50 to 100 years.
Water resources and transport
infrastructure also have long
horizons. Today’s decisions should be
sound and robust for many years to
come, meeting criteria of efficiency,
effectiveness, safety and so on.
In recent years climate change has
been a factor in determining the most
appropriate action but uncertainty
has undoubtedly hindered out ability
to understand fully the implications
of different courses of action. There
are two problems, both of which
CRANIM and other BKCC projects
help to address. Firstly, we do not
have adequate information on climate
change uncertainty. In order to make
informed and balanced decisions
we need to know not just ranges
of possible outcomes, but also
the relative likelihoods of different
climate outcomes. Secondly, we do
not have the tools and methods to
incorporate uncertainty into decision-
making. While classical probabilistic
34
risk assessment is relatively well
understood and widely used, many
aspects of climate change knowledge
do not fit this framework particularly
well. How for example should one
represent the quality different models
in a decision framework? How should
the decision-maker account for
climate scenarios without knowing
how likely each is - or even if they
cover the full range of possibilities?
These are very challenging problems
and will need a degree of ‘re-learning’
by policy makers, decision-makers
and practitioners. As we become
more certain about the reality and
impacts of climate change, we
will need to account for it more
comprehensively. Our ability to
understand responses of systems,
analyse options, and select the ‘best’
course of action will come under
greater scrutiny.
CRANIUM and sister projects within
BKCC have made an important
contribution to knowledge on this
area. Crucially CRANIUM has always
kept the kept decision-maker in view
and has recognised the very real
limits in data and knowledge he or
she faces. The outcome is not a
prescriptive method or decision rule.
Rather it is a set of methods and case
studies to show the types of analysis
that can now be done to inform
different decisions, with a range of
uncertainty types. While there is
still much to be done – not least to
encourage change in culture towards
accepting and managing uncertainty
- I believe that CRANIUM has laid
some very good foundations.
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35
Adaptable Urban Drainage – Addressing Change in Intensity, Occurrence and
Uncertainty Of Stormwater (AUDACIOUS)

Project leader: John Blanksby, Pennine Water Group, University of Sheffield

Project research partners: University of Sheffield; University of Bradford; Imperial College London; Herriot Watt
University; The University of Wales, Aberystwyth; CEH
Project stakeholder partners: Association of British Insurers; HR Wallingford; Environment Agency; Thames Water;
Scottish Water; Yorkshire Water; Micro Drainage; UKWIR; CIRIA; Bradford City Council; Haringey City Council;
Montgomery Watson Harza; Fullflow; Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden; Wuppertal Institute for Climate,
Environment and Energy, Germany
Project website: www.eng.brad.ac.uk/audacious

Urban drainage is increasingly The recent utilisation in the UK of As it is impractical to design

recognised as the ‘Achilles heel’ of
flood management systems. Run-
off of rainfall in urban areas cannot
follow a natural path, and is therefore
usually constrained within completely
artificial systems.
Drainage of surface water is also
often combined with disposal of foul
water in combined sewerage systems
which include sewer overflows that
normally discharge to receiving
waters during wet weather. As recent
events have shown, the need for
good management is therefore
paramount because of the serious
consequences that urban flooding
can bring to those affected.
The combination of ageing
infrastructure and a changing
climate emphasises the importance
of research in this topic. Extreme
events, resulting from increasing
amounts and intensity of rainfall,
are likely to become more common,
meaning that design limits for
drainage systems will require
reappraisal.
Changes in water usage over the
lifetime of many older drainage
systems already means that they
have little surplus capacity. Changes
will also vary both geographically
and at different time periods. The
challenge therefore is to develop
robust techniques to extract the
required information from climate
and hydraulic simulation models,
and to use this within studies that
investigate the best approaches to
upgrade systems. It is likely that
climate change effects will manifest
themselves within the timescale for
which even new urban drainage
systems are being designed.
Sustainable Drainage Systems completely weather-proof systems,
(SUDS) has provided an important we need to understand better the
step forward in terms of system mechanisms and consequences
design and operation. In the right of flooding from sewer systems,
location, built to the appropriate and how a changing climate may
standards and properly maintained, impact on the risks to householders
SUDS-type systems can attenuate and other stakeholders in terms of
and reduce surface flow flood peaks inundation, water quality and health
by modifying and delaying run- impacts. Development of improved
off through mechanisms such as contingency responses would also
permeable surfaces and integrated assist in reducing risk. Increasingly,
storage facilities. They can also divert real-time control systems could be
flows from drainage systems, by used to manage drainage systems,
means of infiltration to groundwater but these will also require further
and, in summer especially, by means development to meet the changing
of evapo-transpiration. However, circumstances.
there is now a strong need to assess
how climate change will modify the
performance of these systems and
whether current design ideas for
SUDS are adequate.
A host of other direct and indirect
effects of climate change will also
require detailed assessment.
Changing flows will impact on
sediment transport and could
increase structural damage.
Modification of in-sewer processes,
such as from acid corrosion and
gas, could necessitate changes in
downstream treatment and regulation.
A warmer climate will also impact on
vegetation growth and type, which
may bring both positive and negative
effects for drainage systems.

36

Both roof and highways drainage
may require upgrading as rainfall
patterns change, but little is known
about these issues. As with sewers,
maintenance regimes may require
modification in order to meet required
standards of service. Proactive
strategies such as those promoting
the re-use of rainwater or wastewater
(‘grey water’) may have an important
role to play, once more information
becomes available. Across the UK,
the regional differences may be
significant and solutions appropriate
in one area may not be so elsewhere.
These approaches must also take
into account the widespread, and
often unclear, responsibility for
these systems. Major actors are the
Environment Agency or Scottish
Environment Protection Agency,
local and national government, land
drainage boards, water companies,
private landowners, and, not least,
private householders.
As a consequence, a priority for
research should be to develop
a more integrated approach to
urban drainage management. By
developing improved systems that
optimise the active storage capacity
available, flood peaks could be
further alleviated. Linking urban
systems to larger-scale catchment-
based flood management will ensure
that responses in one area do not
negatively impact on another. In
coastal areas, we need a better
understanding of the impacts that sea
level rise and higher tides will have
on drainage performance.
Rehabilitation of drainage systems
will also need to consider likely
changes in people’s behaviour.
Changes in the use and density of
urban areas, lifestyle changes, and
new regulations such as the Water
Framework Directive, all need to be
explored in conjunction with climate
change issues. For example, climate
change will also impact on how
people use water. Hence, there may
be consequences for downstream
system performance, with most UK
sewers being combined systems.
The choice of system upgrade or
system replacement will require
the integration of climate change
research with whole life costs over a
considerable time period to assess
the full implications.
Aim
The aim of AUDACIOUS was to
investigate key aspects of the effects
of climate change and urbanisation
on existing drainage in urban areas
and provide tools for drainage
managers and operators to adapt
to uncertain future scenarios. It was
considered that this would plug a gap
in drainage related research, in that it
was proposed to establish a rational
framework for problem-oriented, cost-
efficient, adaptable and sustainable
decision-making for those owning and
responsible for managing, operating,
regulating and developing urban
drainage systems to adapt to likely
future problems.
Objectives
The focus of AUDACIOUS was on
flooding caused by a lack of capacity
or hindrance (e.g. blockage) of the
urban drainage system, rather than
inundation of buildings on river
flood plains due to overland flows
from major watercourses. Although
aimed at adapting existing systems,
AUDACIOUS considered new builds
and it set out to link with the other
primary areas - interaction of urban
floods with other urban infrastructure
(e.g. transportation, communications,
buildings) and to tackle some of the
many cross-cutting issues (e.g. socio-
economic implications, stakeholder
perception, planning, insurance risk
and land development).
Within this context, the objectives of
AUDACIOUS were:
• To set out a clear picture, of the
scope and interactions between
the likely problems caused to the
performance of existing drainage
systems by climate change and
urbanisation.
• To provide new procedures,
computer models, and appropriate
guidance to facilitate the
assessment of climate change
and urbanisation impacts, and
the development of adaptive
responses for building and local
drainage systems.
• To enable and demonstrate the
integrated application of these
models and procedures within,
the wider context of drainage and
urban systems.
• To establish the baseline
procedures for evaluation of and
adaptation to the effects of climate
change on existing urban drainage
and to disseminate these to a wide
audience
37
 building /
downscaled local highway
rainfall scenarios drainage downstream effects
(1 - 5 minutes
resolution) main drainage
adapted
hydrology socio-economic
model scenarios
other climate
change scenario
effects use of
local drainage AUDACIOUS
outputs

Figure 25 Positioning of AUDACIOUS

AUDACIOUS AUDACIOUS AUDACIOUS AUDACIOUS AUDACIOUS

WP4 WP5 WP6 WP3 WP2
run off model of conventional
roof drainage local foul new surface and SUDS systems
model drainage pathways /
(including both model piped drainage including SUDS including
conventional system model in existing greenfield sites
BETWIXT and siphonic urban drainage and constructed
systems) systems SUDS components
long series
rainfall data for
future emissions WaND WP10
scenarios
integration applcation of adaptable models for urban drainage enhanced model improved data
and
understanding

AUDACIOUS AUDACIOUS
WP2 AUDACIOUS WPs 7, 8, 9 and 10 WP12
investigation of climate change impacts on building
downscaled drainage, local storm drainage, major - minor interface risk assessment
rainfall and main draiange systems model of building
time series for drainage for
rainfall scenarios pluvial flooding
impact assessment, risk assessment and optimisation for Work packages associated
pluvial flooding for current and future rainfall with the development of
and current and future land use in case study areas
AUDACIOUS AUDACIOUS the technical toolbox
WP 21 AUDACIOUS WPs 16 and 17 WP14
risk assessment of existing systems and options Work packages associated
common format risk assessment
for data
and optimisation of strategic options
model of local and
with the procedural toolbox
management main drainage for
and reporting pluvial flooding Application of the
AUDACIOUS toolbox and
AUDACIOUS AUDACIOUS AUDACIOUS
WP11 WP13 WP15
other tools in case studies
CRANIUM BESEECH to assess climate and land
health impact whole life cost whole life cost use change impacts on
decision making assessment model of model of local story lines and
under data for
urban drainage at a local
(HIA) model of building and main
uncertainty urban drainage drainage for drainage for future scale
scenarios for pluvial flooding pluvial flooding socio-economic
pluvial flooding scenarios external interactions

Figure 26 The AUDACIOUS flow chart

Methodology
The AUDACIOUS project had a Figure 26 provides a representation
large number of stakeholders and of how the different work packages
since its conception a significant within AUDACIOUS were brought
body of research into integrated together in a phased programme. It
urban drainage management has also shows how the project interacted
developed. Consequently, it has been with the WAter cycle management
necessary to position AUDACIOUS and New Development project to
within the broader context and to develop the adaptable runoff model
ensure that its outputs will continue to and the interactions with the BKCC
provide a contribution to the ongoing projects BETWIXT, BESEECH and
research and development process. CRANIUM.
The positioning of AUDACIOUS
is shown in Figure 25 in which the
activities carried out in AUDACIOUS
are identified in orange boxes, those
in the other BKCC projects are
identified in yellow boxes and the
wider urban drainage context are
associated with blue arrows.

38
Key results
Climate and Rainfall Hydrology
The BETWIXT project provided Although urban runoff comes
integrated outputs for a range of mainly from impervious areas, the
parameters for four emissions importance of pervious areas and
scenarios (high, medium-high, soil conditions has been recognised
medium-low and low) for three future (at least since DoE/NWC 1981) for;
epochs (2020s, 2050s and 2080s). the runoff and shallow sub-surface
An assessment of the BETWIXT flow that they generate, the pathways
outputs was compared with rainfall that they offer for losses from runoff,
from an UKWIR project (UKWIR, and for the effect of and on the
2003), benchmarked against flora they support under different
observed data (Kellagher, 2005). This climate conditions. Current seasonal
concluded that both tools are useable rainfall patterns are due to change
in assessing drainage system with wetter winters and fewer, but
performance for critical durations potentially more intense local summer
between 1 to 6 hours, but below this storms. These changes will alter
duration both models tend to produce the response of mixed impervious
events that do not accurately reflect and pervious areas increased runoff
the observed data. from pervious areas in winter and
significant increases for those intense
Notwithstanding the deficiencies
summer events which are preceded
mentioned above, a detailed analysis
by a period of rainfall sufficient to
of the five minute outputs for the
saturate the ground. These changes
different emissions scenarios was
will alter the performance of current
made to determine ‘uplifts’ which
runoff models which have been
could be applied to current synthetic
calibrated against historic data.
rainfall for design and analysis in
Therefore a new runoff model is
order to account for climate change.
required to help us understand
There was considerable variation in
the potential impacts of climate
the uplifts between sites, emissions
change on runoff from mixed urban
scenarios, the epochs for which the
surfaces. This model is particularly
outputs were produced, the duration
relevant where significant areas of
and return period of the event and
greenspace within and surrounding
seasons. In some cases, particularly
urban areas contribute to runoff.
in summer, the uplifts were less than
However, at smaller scale such as
one, but in winter they were as high
within the curtilages of domestic
as 1.4. It was concluded from both
properties, it can be appropriate to
studies that seasonal changes will be
assume 100% runoff from all surfaces
significant and that there is a need
during extreme rainfall.
for further work to develop short
interval time step rainfall futures at
local scale. It was also concluded
that the degree of uncertainty in
rainfall prediction made an adaptable
approach to flood risk management
essential. It is recommended that in
view of the uncertainties in rainfall
estimation, initial uplifts of between
10% and 40% should be used. It
may be inferred from this that in
many, though not all areas, there will
be a need to build capacity into our
existing urban fabric to compensate
for future rainfall is not to increase
flood risk.

39
Building and local drainage
New computer based simulation
models for building drainage have
been developed. These comprise
components making up a roof
drainage model and also a local area
drainage model (Wright et al., 2006).
The roof drainage model simulates
the flow conditions from roof surfaces
down to ground level, and consists
of three constituent modules for
roof, gutter and pipe flow. The
movement of rain water from a roof
to the ground is typically via vertical
pipe connections. Conventional
systems allow the water to enter
the downpipe freely from the gutter.
Alternative systems have been
developed utilising siphonic inlets
to the downpipe a development
that has increased substantially the
rate at which flows are removed
from the roofs of buildings. The pipe
flow computational module utilises
a two-step approach to the routing
of rainfall from gutter level to the
ground in order to avoid the type of
known stability and run time problems
associated with the simulation of
mixed free surface and full bore flow
regimes within complex systems. The
boundary conditions incorporated
include: system entry (linked to the
gutter outlet condition), blocked
entry, pipe bend, pipe junction and
system exit (including allowance for
submerged discharge or discharge to
a sealed manhole).
In addition to variable rainfall
conditions and the effect of wind
driven rain, the new model is also
capable of handling user specified
roof geometry and characteristics.
Furthermore, by inclusion of an
appropriate infiltration formulation,
the model is also able to simulate the
effects of green roof surfaces, i.e.
calculate the quantity of rainfall that
infiltrates into a green roof rather than
running off into a gutter.
The local drainage model simulates
flow conditions from system entry
points (gullies, rainwater downpipes,
etc) to the boundary of the local
drainage systems exit point, assumed
to be the main sewer connection at
the curtilage boundary.
Another development has been the
use of digital elevation models using
data sources such as Lidar to create
1D representations of surface flow
paths, and although this may be
seen as being unneccessary at local
scale, this is useful in assessing the
40
impacts of runoff at a wider scale
and will enable drainage providers to
assess the impact of changes to local
drainage and additional runoff from
climate change.
Cost-benefit-risk and health
AUDACIOUS uses the commonly
adopted definition of risk which
involves the probability of an event
occurring and the consequences
of the event (Gouldby & Samuels,
2005). At national and regional
scale the assessment of risk can
be a complex matter, requiring
the identification of economic,
social and environmental ‘costs’ or
impacts. However, at local scale, the
assessment is usually much simpler
as the number of stakeholders
involved is smaller.
The components developed here
comprise two levels of economic
assessment; one at the building scale
and the other for the complete local
drainage area, together with a new
approach to evaluating the health
impacts and benefits accruing from
flood risk reduction.
Crucial to the assessment of costs,
benefits and related factors such
as health are future predictions of
demographics, land use and wealth
(personal for risk assessment and
societal for affordability of responses).
The BESEECH project has defined
the local socio-economic conditions
over time for the case study areas
used in the AUDACIOUS project,
all based in Yorkshire, and these
correspond closely with the Regional
Spatial Strategy up to 2025.
For existing properties with
quantifiable flood risk, property
owners, users and other stakeholders
such as insurers have to assess the
consequences of the individual event
(cost and other), and the frequency of
the event. They then have to assess
if they can live with the risk, or if it is
beneficial for them to adapt to change
the risk. In making these decisions,
the stakeholders will wish for certainty
in the assessment of future flood risk,
but certainty cannot be guaranteed
and so strategies are required to
help stakeholders make the best
decision. Should there be investment
to build in robustness, or adaptive
capacity? How much investment is
required, and when is it required?
The answers to these questions
depend on the nature of the flooding,
the relationships between and the
attitude to risk of the stakeholders.
Whatever the circumstance, it has
been possible to develop a simple
step-by-step procedure to help in
decision taking.
• Understand and quantify the
current flood risk and the desire
and capacity to manage it;
• Define the epochs for which future
risk assessments will be made. In
BKCC these have been identified
as the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s;
• Understand the worst case
scenario. Using the rainfall
scenario generating the highest
uplift, and where appropriate other
(socio-economic drivers) identify
and cost the adaptations required
to produce an acceptable flood
risk;
• Assess the need and desire for
robustness, and/or the capacity
to adapt. This depends on the
capacity and desire to make
provision for future scenarios that
may or may not happen and the
capacity and desire to revisit the
problem if the chosen course of
action proves to be inadequate in
the future.
Health impacts can be considered
to be direct or indirect, with indirect
impacts resulting for example, from
damage to infrastructure, food supply
and other factors (e.g. Ohl & Tapsell,
2000; Defra/EA, 2005). Unfortunately
the health impacts of flooding do
not lend themselves to controlled
prospective epidemiological studies,
where those that are flooded are
randomly allocated and matched to a
control group, who do not experience
flooding. Thus, much of the
literature is based on opportunistic
retrospective studies of flooding
(sometimes conducted a considerable
time after the event), case studies
or anecdotal evidence. Following a
flood event, if the numbers of houses
flooded, the flood depth and flood
velocity and sociodemographics of
the area are known, it is possible to
determine the health impacts. The
main difference under climate change
would appear to be the frequency of
flooding. Therefore health impacts/
year automatically increase because
people are being flooded (or fear the
possibility) more often.
The health related flooding
assessments is aimed at, where
possible, the quantification of
the individual health outcomes
as Disability Adjusted Life Years
(DALYs). These can then be summed
in order to compare different events
or remediation options. These are
summary measures of health that
allow comparison of effects across
a wide range of health outcomes,
including both mortality and morbidity.
The measure combines years of life
lost by premature mortality (YLL),
with years lived with a disability
(YLD), standardised using severity or
disability weights. Figures from the
interim life tables for England have
been used (GAD, 2005). Disability
weights have been derived for a
number of disease categories (WHO
2005; Stouthard et al., 1997), where
possible these have been used
directly.
Responses and Adaptation
(behaviour and perceptions, capacity
building)
There are growing sources of
guidance and tools to assist in the
selection of responses. In the local
drainage area the institutional barriers
may be the most problematic. Hence,
it is imperative to try to build capacity
in each of the stakeholder groups
involved in flood risk management
and invest in building the potential to
respond to changes in future risk.
When it comes down to local
drainage, many of those involved do
not have the capacity (financial or
competencies) to utilise the complex
tools developed by AUDACIOUS
and related projects. Nor can they
be expected to have a detailed
comprehension of the drainage
needs of the wider catchment.
What is needed at local scale is a
general understanding of the issues
relating to climate change, urban
development and the need for
local responses, guidance so that
they can use cost effective flood
risk management methods whilst
achieving their personal objectives
and simple tools that they can use to
work quantify what they need to do.
This guidance needs to be produced
at local level and should take
account of current system capacity
and the future drivers. The role of
the AUDACIOUS outputs is in the
assessment of the needs of the wider
catchment and ion the development
of the local guidance.
Implications for policy and
practice
As stated above, much has happened
since AUDACIOUS was conceived
and it has been difficult to finalise
the outputs in such a fluid situation.
However, the publication of PPS
25, Development and Flood Risk,
(DCLG, 2006) has created an
environment of relative stability in
which the AUDACIOUS outputs can
contribute to the fine tuning of policy
and, with related work, enable the
development of good practice for
local people with limited resources.
The scientific outputs of AUDACIOUS
will contribute to this process by
helping the catchment wide context to
be determined, and also by assisting
the development of simple design
guidance that can then be applied
by those with limited resources.
This is crucial to the development of
adaptive responses to future flood
risk, because it enables the inclusion
of the majority of small developments
within our existing urban areas within
the wider management of flood risk.
Without simple methods set within the
understanding of the wider context,
this cannot be done.
41
Stakeholder View:
Tony Poole, Principal Drainage So what does AUDACIOUS offer?
Engineer, City of Bradford Simplistically a means of analysing
Metropolitan District Council at local level flows from the roof
and surface flows, through the
Since Local Government
drainage system of buildings into the
Reorganisation in1974 the role
connecting pipework to the receiving
of Local Authorities in Water
sewer or other outfall with a resulting
Management issues had been
tool box that is easily understandable
gradually eroded by the increasing
and useable. Work on the roof model
influence of Water Companies and
has shown that syphonic conditions
the Environment Agency. However
can occur in situations not previously
the recent rise in the incidence of
recognised, resulting in significant
urban flooding has led to recognition
under estimation of flows.
that the Planning function of Local
Authorities can be a major way in Overland flows had generally been
reducing future flood risks. assumed to discharge straight into
some local underground system, but
When Water Companies stopped
now the prospect of a more accurate
using Local Authorities as their
flow pattern has been developed.
design consultants a great exodus of
This process however has not been
experienced drainage staff resulted,
without difficulty, but in overcoming
leaving at best only a small residual
some of the early problems, a
staff to look after the Land Drainage
means of producing simple flow path
function. In Bradford only my team
overlays has been developed.
dealing with statutory functions was
left, the three design teams having The importance of the potential
gone to consultants and with them for this to be developed as a tool
the main modelling expertise. for all Planning Authorities should
not be under estimated. Not all
Whilst we had been used to
Local Authorities have drainage
commenting on Planning and
expertise, but even where it exists
Building Regulation Applications
Water Management Plans showing
any complex modelling input was
where development should be
supplied by the design teams.
avoided or flows can be attenuated
Coincidentally the nature of the
naturally will significantly increase
required response was changing.
not only the speed in dealing with
Whereas the traditional role had been
planning applications, but the
solely to check information supplied
quality of information available to
by the developer, we were now being
elected members on the Planning
required to provide an independent
Committees.
check on the methodology and in a
comparatively short timescale. Whilst this work clearly needs further
development, AUDACIOUS has
The common analytic modelling
shown that it is possible to satisfy not
packages were not only expensive
only researches curiosity, but provide
to purchase, but as they would only
tools and outputs that are useful to a
be used occasionally it was doubtful
diverse range of stakeholders.
if any real expertise in their use
could be gained. So when asked
to participate in AUDACIOUS it
appeared an ideal opportunity not
only to recreate some of the lost
expertise, but to look at some of the
basic issues which had not previously
been covered.

42
References
DCLG (2006). PPS 25, Development
and Flood Risk, Department
for Communities and Local
Government, December 2006,
http://www.communities.gov.uk/index.
asp?id=1504640
Defra/EA (2005). Flood risks to
people. Phase 2. The risks to people
methodology. FD2321/TR1. Defra/
Environment Agency Flood and
Coastal Defence R&D Programme.
March 2005
DoE/NWC (1981). Design and
analysis of urban storm drainage,
The Wallingford Procedure, Standing
Technical Paper No.28, 173p.,
National Water Council 173p, ISBN 0
901090 27 1.
GAD (2005). Interim life tables 2001-
2003. England. Male and Female
(http://www.gad.gov.uk/Life_Tables/
Interim_Life_Tables.htm) Accessed
17/06/05. Government Actuary’s
Department, UK Government.
Gouldby, B. and Samuels, P. (2005).
Integrated Flood Risk Analysis
and Management Methodologies.
Language of Risk – Glossary of
Terms. March. Report: T32-04-01.
Floodsite [www.floodsite.net].
Kellagher, R. (2005). Audacious
- Adaptable Urban Drainage,
Comparison on RainSim and
TSRsim stochastic rainfall generators
benchmarked against observed data.
Report SR 675, Release 2.0, HR
Wallingford, July.
Ohl, C., and Tapsell, S. (2000).
Flooding and human health. British
Medical Journal 321: 1167-1168
Stouthard, M., Essink-Bot, M.,
Bonsal, G., Barendregt, J., Kramers,
P. (1997). Disability weights for
diseases in the Netherlands.
Rotterdam: Department of Health,
Erasmus University. Cited by
Victorian Government Department of
Human Services (1999).
UKWIR (2003). Climate change and
the Hydraulic Design of Sewerage
Systems, Vol. I-III, UKWIR Report No.
03/CL/10.
WHO (2005). Disability weights used
in the Global Burden of Disease 1990
study. (http://www3.who.int/whosis/
menu.cfm?path=evidence,bod,burd
en,burden_manual,burden_manual_
other&language=english) Accessed
17/06/05
Wright, G.B., Jack, L.B. and
Swaffield, J.A. (2006). Investigation
and numerical modelling of roof
drainage systems under extreme
events. Building and Environment,
41(20) pp 126-135, Elsevier Ltd.
43
Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change in the Urban Environment (ASCCUE)

Project leader: Professor John Handley, Centre for Urban and Regional Ecology, University of Manchester.
Project research partners: Centre for Urban and Regional Ecology, University of Manchester; Civil and Environmental
Engineering, University of Southampton; The Centre for Research in the Built Environment, University of Cardiff; Oxford
Institute for Sustainable Development, Oxford Brookes University.
Project stakeholder partners: Town and Country Planning Association; Environment Agency; Office of the Deputy
Prime Minister; Insurance and Construction Industry; Local Government; Royal Town Planning Institute.
Project website: www.sed.manchester.ac.uk/research/cure/projects/current/asccue.htm

The biophysical properties of the
urban environment are distinctive
with a large building mass (350kg.
m-2 in dense residential areas)
and associated heat storage
capacity, reduced greenspace
cover (with its evaporative cooling
and rainwater interception and
infiltration functions) and extensive
surface sealing (around 70% in high
density settlement and city centres)
which promotes rapid runoff of
precipitation. This distinctiveness is
amplified by climate change (Gill et
al., 2004; Gill et al., 2007). It is here
where people and wealth are most
concentrated and where climate
change impacts, should they occur,
will be most intense. The IPCC
3rd Assessment Report pointed to
strong research evidence that urban
settlements in developed (high
capacity) economies may be at risk
from flooding/landslides, sea level
rise, heat/cold waves, water shortage,
hail/windstorm, air pollution and
intensification of urban heat islands
(Jauregui et al., 2001). In the UK the
Construction Research Innovation
Strategy Panel (CRISP) emphasised
the need to identify the most
vulnerable sectors and geographical
areas and highlighted 3 key issues
for the built environment: coastal and
riverine flooding; subsidence, wind
and storm damage; and impacts of
warm summers on thermal comfort.
However, whilst research priorities
had been identified, little progress
had been made in quantifying
climate change impacts on the
urban environment and developing
an integrated response. ASCCUE
sought to remedy this deficiency
and assembled a multi-disciplinary
research team from four universities
that was well equipped to meet
the challenge. We recognised that
climate change may bring some
benefits to city living but that it
poses a significant threat to building
integrity and human welfare. Urban
greenspace may also be at risk, but
our principal interest here is in the
ecosystem services and adaptation
potential provided by the ‘green
infrastructure’ in moderating climate
change impacts. All aspects of the
CRISP agenda were tackled except
wind damage, where there is still
a great deal of uncertainty in the
climate modelling.
Aim
To develop an improved
understanding of climate change
impacts in urban areas (focusing on
building integrity, human comfort and
urban greenspace) and how these,
and neighbourhoods within them can
be adapted.
Objectives
• To explore the physical template of
two contrasting urban areas and
to make a city-wide assessment
of climate-related risks to and
constraints on development;
• To explore the likely consequences
of climate change for building
integrity, urban greenspace
and human comfort at the
neighbourhood level in each
location;
• Having regard to the potential
for autonomous adjustment, to
explore the scope for strategic
adaptation by planning and design
at both scales of inquiry;
• To recognise the potential for
interaction (both positive and
negative) between adaptation and
mitigation and to screen adaptation
strategies for this;
• To engage with the stakeholder
community (national and local) at
all stages in the assessment and
with them develop dissemination
tools and seek to initiate
demonstration projects.

44
Overall methodology
ASCCUE followed the research
framework provided by the IPPC
Technical Guidelines for Assessing
Climate Change Impacts and
Adaptations, refined and updated by
Parry and Carter (1998).
By applying an integrated
assessment methodology (Figure
27), ASCCUE sought to produce
generic research findings that would
be widely applicable. However,
to provide a realistic test-bed for
methodological development work
was concentrated in two case study
locations at opposite ends of the
SE/NW climate gradient:
• Greater Manchester
– a representative case; a large
conurbation (population 2.5 million)
with a full range of building types,
varied topography and soils;
• Lewes – an extreme case; a small
coastal town in Sussex (population
15,000) which lies astride a tidal
river and which has already
experienced severe flooding (most
recently October 12th, 2000).
UKCIP02
scenarios
urban characterisation and risk assessment
WP1
Lewes
exposure units
WP4
human comfort
national
stakeholders
WP5
urban greenspace
strategy development
WP6
socio-economic
impacts
BESEECH
Figure 27 ASCCUE research framework
Urban characterisation
A robust and repeatable methodology
was devised for mapping urban areas
and their surroundings from digital
ortho-rectified aerial photographs into
distinctive urban morphology types
(UMTs), with 13 major categories
and 29 sub-categories (Figure 28).
The maps were ground-truthed by
Local Authority partners and updated
as new imagery became available,
so permitting assessment of land
use change. Working on advice
from our national steering group
the classification was made fully
compatible with the National Land
Use Database.
BETWIXT
WP2
Manchester
WP3
building integrity
local
advisors
WP7
strategies development
and testing
BKCC
projects
WP8
adaptation and
migration
Surface cover was then characterised
by stratified random sampling (400
sample points per UMT category)
using nine surface cover categories
(e.g. building, other impervious,
mown grass etc). This allowed us
to visualise the distribution of built
and evapotranspiring surfaces at the
conurbation (Greater Manchester) or
catchment (Lewes) scale.
The urban characterisation
methodology is readily transferable
and provides a firm basis for risk
assessment and modelling of climate
change impacts (Handley et al., in
press). The UMT maps have been
made freely available to the Local
Authorities under licence and are
being used by them to inform both
emergency and spatial planning.
45
Figure 28 Urban morphology type map of Greater Manchester

Risk assessment
A consistent approach to risk
assessment was adopted:
Risk = ƒ {Hazard, Exposure,
Vulnerability}
Where hazard is the extent, severity
and probability of a climate related
hazard; exposure is the extent
and value of elements that would
be affected were the hazard to be
realised; and vulnerability is the
susceptibility of the elements to the
hazard.
The advantage of using this approach
for climate related risk assessment
is that complementary adaptation
strategies can be devised which
reduce risk by either reducing
exposure (e.g. preventing a flood
reaching the area in question) or
reducing vulnerability (e.g. measures
to increase the resilience of the
building stock).
In Greater Manchester, priority
themes for risk assessment were
identified at a workshop with local
stakeholders (see Table 2).
Risk analysis was carried out in
a GIS environment with the UMT
map often providing the ‘elements
at risk’ layer. Even simple overlays
were informative (e.g. in Greater
Manchester 12 out of 27 electricity
substations are potentially exposed
to high flood hazard levels (EA
Flood Zone 3), and by the 2080s
High 159 schools experience a
surface temperature regime that
at present is associated with town
centres, compared to 49 currently).
In Lewes the location of emergency
support facilities within the flood zone
significantly impaired the response to
the October, 2000 event. However,
more sophisticated approaches were
possible, for example work on heat
stress in vulnerable populations
(DOH, 2004), which combined climate
scenarios (BETWIXT) data with likely
changes in the socio-economic mix
(BESEECH) (Lindley et al., 2006).
Here, as in other examples, there
is a strong coincidence between
vulnerability and exposure, with
communities with limited adaptive
capacity often bearing the brunt of
climate change impacts.
The risk analysis provides a
screening technique at the
conurbation level which is not
necessarily quantitative. Therefore,
for the next level of enquiry more
detailed and rigorous methods are
required to quantify the degree of
risk. These can include probability
and process models, rather than
simple GIS overlays. For example,
Lewes, a flood prone town, lies on
a tidal river where increased rainfall
(and therefore river flow) could
potentially interact with a tidal surge,

Exposure unit Hazard Elements at risk

Built environment Flooding, geohazards (e.g. Built environment,

landslides, shrink-swell clays) key infrastructure and services

Urban greenspace Drought (available water Key greenspace infrastructure

content), runoff, temperature including parks, gardens, and trees

Human comfort Temperature (day and night Receptive environments e.g.

maximums), precipitation for shoppers and commuters

Human health Temperature (day and night maximums) Population density and characteristics

Table 2 Priority risk themes in Greater Manchester

46

on a sea level which is already rising
relative to the land. Extreme joint
probability statistics produced a more
reliable estimate of flood frequency
than the conventional approaches,
even before the effects of climate
change are factored in. This approach
significantly increases the predicted
frequency of potential flood events;
climate change exacerbates the
problem (White, forthcoming). In this
instance hydraulic modelling showed
that an engineered off-stream surge
water storage area on the floodplain
below Lewes would be capable of
mitigating flooding in Lewes up to
2080. However, adaptive responses
could be compromised by pressure
for development within the floodplain
of Lewes and more widely by
continuing urbanisation in the upper
catchment.
Key research findings and
implications for policy and practice
The conurbation scale risk screening
methodology can contribute to
climate change adaptation in the UK
by:
• Identifying areas of potentially high
risk where future development
should be avoided without
additional investigative work;
• Prioritising areas for further
investigative study (e.g. within
ASCCUE it helped to identify
suitable neighbourhoods for the
adaptation strategy workshop);
• Identifying areas where adaptation
strategies may be most urgently
required.
A historical study of climate related
events and their consequences
highlighted the need for much
more systematic recording by
those involved if we are to use
such information to inform policy
development or validate risk
assessment models.
For tidal river flood defences it is clear
from this research that the integrated
approach of using joint probability
analysis with one-dimensional
hydraulic modelling provides the most
reliable methodology for predicting
flood risk and hence it is likely to
become widely adopted.
For many towns lying on tidal rivers,
downstream off-stream storage
reservoirs can provide a cost
effective and environmentally friendly
approach to mitigating sea level rise
for some time into the future.
Exposure units
Integrity of the built environment
One of the key threats of climate
change to building integrity concerns
increased coastal, fluvial and
pluvial flood risk manifested by sea
level rise, increased storminess
and increased winter precipitation.
These impacts are exacerbated by
urbanisation, which alters natural
hydrological regimes, for example,
by reducing infiltration capacity of
the ground. Geohazards, such as
subsidence and land slides, created
by changed soil and geologic
conditions which are influenced by
moisture content, also pose a risk to
the built fabric of urban areas.
Methodology
A new approach was developed to
assess risk from natural hazards
caused by climate change at a
neighbourhood scale. To develop
adaptive policy, several hazards
influenced by climate change need to
be integrated into a single measure
of risk. A framework was developed
that could integrate data relating
to flood and geological hazards in
Lewes. The methodology enabled
neighbourhood scale risk assessment
through a focus on individual building
vulnerability. Each factor of the
risk function (exposure, hazard,
and vulnerability) were considered
independently and then combined in
a GIS-based overlay process.
Key research findings
The methodological framework
proposed used GIS to estimate
combined risk to buildings from
various natural hazards and offers the
potential to evaluate risk of damage
under current conditions and climate
change. The approach employs
non-invasive survey techniques
and allows sections of a city to be
differentiated according to their
vulnerability. The procedure also
estimates the cost of damage due to
combined hazards.
Implications for policy and practice
• The role of spatial planning, at the
regional, local and project scale
is important in the development
and implementation of adaptation
options to impacts such as flooding
and geohazards.
• The use of risk assessment
methodologies encourages a more
informed approach to the planning
and development of urban areas
to adapt to the threats of climate
change.
• The challenges associated with
climate change emphasise the
importance of recognising the
need to look beyond traditional
growth-dominated approaches
and to encourage a longer
term sustainable view of urban
development.
External human thermal
comfort
The provision and use of open
space, both public and private, is
an important element in the way in
which urban areas and population
respond to climate change. There
is evidence that people’s use of
open space is changing in response
to climate change, especially with
warmer springs and autumns
predicted. However, while research
has been conducted on people’s level
of comfort in internal spaces, there
is less understanding of people’s
experience of outdoor spaces,
particularly within urban areas.
With higher average temperatures
and extreme temperatures, it is
likely that people’s need for, use of
and experience of open space will
change.
47
Methodology
The aim of this component of
the project was to explore the
implications of climate change
for the use of urban space taking
account of socio-economic change
at conurbation and site-scale; and
to assess the opportunities for
increasing adaptive capacity.
Field work on human comfort and
microclimate in all seasons and
all weathers at four town centre
locations was carried out to improve
understanding of external human
comfort. Questionnaires were
designed to establish people’s
perceptions of comfort and their
environment. A portable weather
station measured ground-based
meteorological conditions at the time
of interviews. Outputs from BETWIXT
generated daily weather sequences
for Greater Manchester under the
UKCIP02 climate change scenarios.
These were mapped on the UMT’s
to allow identification of areas
which might experience significant
increases in temperature (see Figure Figure 29 Discomfort levels for city users’ environments for maximum
29). Probabilistic data-sets from temperatures in August in Greater Manchester
CRANIUM were also used to explore
the likelihood of periods of extreme Key research findings Field work confirmed that, as
weather. Social and cultural capital This innovative work linked external expected, people outdoors respond
required to adapt to a changing thermal comfort surveys with to season and to weather. While there
climate is also important. The climate change models and socio- is considerable adaptation to different
prospect of different socio-economic economic scenarios. Under future conditions and temperatures, such
and cultural context will affect the conditions, demand for open space as changes in clothing, in activity
capacity and willingness of individuals will increase for a number of reasons: and in location, the adaptation is
and institutions to adapt. BESEECH to enjoy the warmer conditions incomplete. Climate change will
socio-economic scenarios were over a longer season (with warmer increase the mismatch unless urban
used. A range of design options were springs and autumns) and a longer designers and city centre managers
assessed: (i) adaptive assessment of day into evening (with more moves anticipate these changes and plan
the provision of shade in the summer towards a 24-hour city); to have accordingly. The key to comfort
and wind-shelter in the winter; (ii) access to open air, wind and shade in outdoor spaces is the adaptive
increased use of open spaces for from uncomfortably hot, poorly opportunity offered by the spaces to
recreation; (iii) choice of plant species ventilated offices, shops and public the people in them, allowing them to
which are compatible with climate buildings during the day, or from choose between local micro-climates
change scenarios. over-cooled buildings; and to have to suit themselves (Figure 30). Such
access to the open-air for cooling opportunities in Manchester and
from uncomfortably warm, naturally- Lewes town centres were found to
ventilated residential properties in the be severely limited at present and
evening or at night. the extent to which towns and cities
can be adapted will be influenced by
the social and cultural context. The
BESEECH socio-economic scenarios
suggest significantly different story-
lines for public open spaces in urban
centres and the adaptive response.

48
Figure 30 St Ann’s Square,
Manchester
Implications for policy and practice
• The protection, improvement
and expansion of green and blue
space areas, which can moderate
temperature and enhance human
comfort, must be encouraged;
• Spatial planning, at the regional,
local and project scale has a key
role to play in the development
and provision of adaptation
responses targeted at enhancing
human comfort. This must be
acknowledged and reflected in
appropriate planning legislation
and guidance;
• Collaborations between planners,
urban designers and land owners
will be necessary to encourage
the provision of urban open space
resources adapted to climate
change impact.
Urban Greenspace
Urban greenspace offers significant
potential in adapting cities for
climate change, through its role in
ameliorating the urban climate (by
shading and evaporative cooling)
and reducing surface runoff (by
intercepting, storing and infiltrating
rainwater) (Whitford et al., 2001).
However, this potential has not been
explored and little is known about
the impact of climate change on
urban greenspace and how this may,
in turn, impact on its functionality.
Such knowledge will be critical for
the creation of adaptation strategies
through urban greenspace planning,
design and management.
Figure 31 Evapotranspiring (i.e. vegetated and water) surfaces over Greater
Manchester
Methodology
This work aimed to assess the
vulnerability of urban greenspace
to climate change at the city
and neighbourhood level; and
to investigate the potential of
greenspace to adapt cities to climate
change.
Modelling work was undertaken for
Greater Manchester and used the
UMTs as its spatial basis and the
surface cover analysis as a key input,
representing the ’current form’ of the
urban environment (Figure 31). Model
runs were completed for the baseline
climate and future climate scenarios,
with meteorological input calculated
from output from the BETWIXT daily
weather generator for Ringway. In
addition, model runs included a series
of ’development scenarios’ where
greenspace was added to explore
adaptation strategies and removed
to represent current development
trends.
Key research findings
Results show that woodlands are the
coolest UMT whilst town centres are
the warmest, with a 12.8ºC difference
in maximum surface temperatures
for the 98th percentile summer day in
1961-1990 and 13.9°C by the 2080s
High (Gill, 2006). Greenspace can
be used to moderate the effects of
climate change on increasing surface
temperatures. For example, adding
10% green cover keeps maximum
surface temperatures in high density
residential areas and town centres at
or below the 1961-1990 case up until
the 2080s High. Greening roofs also
moderates surface temperatures.
A caveat is during droughts, when
plants experience water stress
and evapotranspiration, with its
cooling effect, is reduced. It was
found that drought conditions for
grassland increase both spatially and
temporally with climate change. In
such conditions, water bodies will be
important for their evaporative cooling
and mature trees for their shade,
whilst irrigation will be required to
maintain this functionality.
There is more surface runoff from
built UMTs. Faster infiltrating (e.g.
sandy) soils have the least runoff, so
surface sealing here has a greater
impact than on slower infiltrating (e.g.
clay) soils. By the 2080s High, the
99th percentile winter precipitation
event has 56% more rain than in
1961-1990, resulting in an 82%
increase in runoff from Greater
Manchester. Whilst adding green
cover can reduce runoff locally,
this effect is not enough to counter
the extra precipitation from climate
change. The use of water storage
in combination with green surfaces
will be required, and could be used
to irrigate greenspace in order to
maintain its functionality in times of
drought.
49
 Strategy development
review control climate concious climate concious
existing plans development in urban new Strategy development involved a
and policies high risk areas regeneration development sharing of knowledge and experience
between the research team and
stakeholders in a series of interactive
screening risks at the conurbation scale workshops. In Greater Manchester
the workshop explored impacts
mitigate modify influence and responses in the following
climate change urban form general
drivers and function behaviour contexts: city centre, densifying
suburb and a restructuring urban
area. New development was
explored in a joint workshop with
the Defra cross-regional project on
urban elements
hazard
system of risk ‘sustainable communities’ (LUC et
al., 2006). Contributions from allied
projects (BETWIXT, BESEECH,
AUDACIOUS) helped to inform these
workshops. Climate change impacts
reduce exposure reduce vulnerability reduce are cross cutting and unavoidable,
exposure risk vulnerability
and they demand a multilevel policy
response (national, regional, local),
the engagement of a variety of
delivery mechanisms and effective
risk regulatory oversight. The research
has emphasised the importance
of risk assessment and strategy
Figure 32 Relationship of land-use planning mechanisms for building adaptive development at a variety of scales
capacity with components of screening risk assessment methodology (black but work at the conurbation scale is
dashed lines show direct relationships and grey dashed lines show indirect critical (Lindley et al., 2007). The way
relationships) (Lindley et al., 2007) in which risk assessment could inform
different aspects of the land-use
Implications for policy and practice planning process is shown in Figure
• Promote the multi-functional 32.
benefits of greenspace resources, Using Lewes as a worked example,
which extend beyond their role in ASCCUE researchers have shown
climate change adaptation. how the conurbation scale risk
• Encourage the use of spatial screening methodology can be
planning at the strategic local and dovetailed with a more detailed
neighbourhood level, to design assessment of the vulnerability of the
and implement climate change building stock to provide a nested
adaptation strategies based approach to risk assessment of
around greenspace resources. climate related hazard in urban areas
(Gwilliam et al., 2006).
• Greenspace or green infrastructure
strategies will require a suite It is also important to ensure that
of complementary measures to adaptation complements, rather
realise the full adaptation potential than undermines, efforts to reduce
of the green infrastructure, greenhouse gas emissions (McEvoy
particularly in relation to climate et al., 2006). The functionality of the
related functions such as ‘green infrastructure’ needs to be
interception, flood conveyance and protected and enhanced (Gill et al.,
storage, infiltration, evaporative 2007) and measures taken to improve
cooling, and shading. resilience during the development
and redevelopment process. It has
to be remembered that climate
change brings opportunities as well
as problems, especially in the public
realm.

50
Stakeholder View:
Robert Shaw, Town and Country
Planning Association
Being solutions-oriented, with
research findings intended to inform
policy and practice, the research
team placed a strong emphasis
on stakeholder engagement from
the outset of the ASCCUE project.
Indeed, key national stakeholders
[Town and Country Planning
Association (TCPA), Royal Town
Planning Institute (RTPI), Office of
the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM)
and the Environment Agency]
were represented at a preliminary
workshop in 2002 to help define
research objectives and priorities,
and subsequently offered written
endorsement in support of the
proposal before the research
process got underway. Continuing
collaboration with the stakeholder
community has been one of the most
critical factors in ensuring quality
deliverables from the ASCCUE
project.
There were six important strands
to the ASCCUE stakeholder
engagement process: 1) the
involvement of the TCPA as
stakeholder champion, 2) a strategic
ASCCUE steering group operating
at the national level, 3) local
advisory groups for each of the
two case studies, 4) more informal
interactions with local stakeholders
as the research developed, 5) the
hosting of risk workshops, and 6) the
stakeholder forum which acted as a
dissemination ‘gateway’ to the outside
world as part of the ‘Integrating
Framework’ for the wider Building
Knowledge for a Changing Climate
(BKCC) research programme.
TCPA acted as Stakeholder
Champion for the project, hosting
and facilitating the National
Steering Group meetings as well as
representing ASCCUE on the BKCC
stakeholder forum. Their involvement
stemmed from a belief that adaptation
was an essential part of any response
to climate change, and that spatial
planning needs to play a central
role. Any response will also need
to be informed by the best possible
science. In addition to coordinating
the stakeholder engagement process
at the national level, they were
also responsible for developing a
coherent communication strategy
and ensuring that the key messages
arising from the ASCCUE project
were disseminated effectively. A core
component of the dissemination
output is the development of a
‘Climate Change Adaptation-
by-Design’ guide for planners,
developers, architects and urban
designers, based on the outcomes
of the ASCCUE and other similar
research. This initiative is currently
underway, involves many of the
ASCCUE project stakeholders, and
is due to be published in the first half
of 2007.
The National Steering Group for
ASCCUE met on a six-monthly
basis in London and members were
selected to represent enablers /
policy-makers / users / and other
key stakeholders. The group make-
up consisted of public, private, and
voluntary sectors; with representation
from Government departments,
quasi-public organisations, regional
planning authorities, professional
associations, and representatives
from the construction, urban design,
landscape architecture, and health
sectors. The project funders (UKCIP
and EPSRC) were also represented
at these regular meetings.
Contributions from the steering group
served several important functions.
As a result of their individual
knowledge domains and experience,
they not only provided authoritative
‘guidance’ to the solutions-oriented
research, but were also able to
make valuable contributions to
the development of research
methodologies within the project.
Furthermore, when dealing with
specific adaptation issues members
of the group were able to use their
expert knowledge to highlight other
relevant activity and best practice to
the research team. This exchange
of knowledge was of particular value
to the research team. The national
steering group was also given the
responsibility of contributing to the
communications strategy. This was
a significant role, ensuring that the
implications of the research for policy
and practice were made as explicit
as possible in the final dissemination
of the findings. Over three years of
direct involvement, members of the
national steering group also used
their individual professional networks
to raise awareness of ASCCUE
research activity.
In addition to the steering group
operating at the national level, Local
Advisory Groups were also set up
for the two case studies of Greater
Manchester in the North West of
England and Lewes in the South
East. These two case studies were
selected to allow investigation of two
contrasting urban areas. The former
is a large conurbation chosen as a
representative case, enabling the
research team to draw out generic
findings and inform ‘transferable’
adaptation strategies, whereas
the latter was viewed as a good
example of an extreme case in
terms of its vulnerability to climate
change. In the case of Greater
Manchester, a membership of 10-
12 stakeholders was considered
the optimum size for the advisory
group, with stakeholders again
representing a spectrum of interests
within the urban environment:
regional policy-makers, planners,
urban designers, members of the
insurance industry, local authorities,
city managers, emergency planning
experts and regulatory authorities.
Their collective input, again at six
monthly meetings (with additional
contributions at other meetings and
events), was multi-dimensional – not
only did members provide valuable
local insights to climate change
impacts and adaptation issues, they
also commented on the different
exposure units under investigation
by the research team, contributed
their local knowledge at climate
51
risk workshops, assisted with the
selection of specific case studies,
and used their expert knowledge to
assist the development and testing
of possible adaptation strategies.
Coming from a local perspective, this
input acted as a valuable compliment
to the contribution from the national
stakeholders. For the Lewes case
study, which has been subject to
severe and repeated flooding, the
interaction between the research
team and local stakeholders was, out
of necessity, much more constrained.
Due to important political and
economic sensitivities in the case
study area (the town was subject to a
substantial flooding event as recently
as 2002) it proved impossible to
hold ‘open’ group meetings. Instead,
the research team had to rely on
the expertise of a small number of
policy and regulatory stakeholders
(representation and input from
regional and local authorities, and the
Environment Agency).
Engagement with local stakeholders
was not limited to the local advisory
group meetings. Whenever possible
the research team sought to promote
more informal interactions with other
stakeholders. Three examples from
the Greater Manchester best illustrate
the variety of working relationships
that developed during the course of
the research. Firstly, the knowledge
of local planners from each of the
ten metropolitan borough councils
was called upon to ensure accuracy
when generating urban morphology
types for the Greater Manchester
conurbation. Secondly, the research
team also performed an ASCCUE
‘road-show’, visiting the local offices
of organisations that were interested
52
in adapting cities to climate change
(for example, TEP, the Environment
Agency, Association of Greater
Manchester Authorities, United
Utilities etc.), giving presentations that
highlighted the aims and objectives
of the ASCCUE project. This process
was a useful dissemination vehicle,
both informing local stakeholders
and eliciting valuable feedback.
Thirdly, there was particularly close
interaction with the regional planning
authority and the Environment
Agency, culminating in a 2006 report
responding to the Regional Spatial
Strategy consultation in the Northwest
region. Interactions were not limited
to Greater Manchester however, with
individual work packages engaging
with stakeholders in Lewes according
to their research needs.
An important mechanism for
facilitating the exchange of
knowledge between the research
team and the local stakeholder
community was the hosting of
risk workshops. The first of these
was held early on in the research
programme (July 2004) and was
specifically designed to promote
active engagement with the local
advisory group. The main focus of
the half-day event was to obtain
feedback on the conurbation scale
risk screening methodology which
was under development at the time.
Not only was there broad support
for the ASCCUE methodologies
from the participants but they
also helped to identify additional
expert groups who would be able
to make useful contributions to the
development of the final toolkit. This
was then followed up by a second
workshop in January 2006, though
in this instance there was a greater
emphasis on the development of
adaptation options as illustrated
by the title of the event: ‘adaptive
management and climate conscious
design of urban neighbourhoods’.
The morning session first introduced
an overview of research activity
before splitting into three breakout
groups focusing specifically on each
of the three exposure units. In the
afternoon, a more cross-cutting and
integrated approach was taken with
the consideration of impacts and
adaptation according to different
neighbourhood types (city centre,
urban restructuring, and densifying
suburb). This semi-structured
format provided a useful opportunity
for the research team to present
work-in-progress from each of the
work modules, as well as allowing
stakeholders to be an integral part of
the research process by commenting
on the assessment methodologies
under development and contributing
to the testing of integrated adaptation
options for different neighbourhood
types. Representation at this day long
workshop was intentionally broader,
with the inclusion of experts whose
knowledge benefited the research
of the different exposure units and
a wider representation from the
potential ‘users’ of the ASCCUE
findings. A final joint workshop (20th
March 2006) was also held with the
DEFRA project on Adaptation in the
Growth Areas, to explore some of
the findings of ASCCUE in relation to
new areas of development such as
the Thames Gateway. The workshop
included a range of stakeholders from
the South East of England.

The final element of the stakeholder
engagement process was the
dissemination vehicle set up by the
BKCC programme, the stakeholder
forum. This was considered
necessary to allow decision-makers
the opportunity to become engaged
with the overall initiative and more
actively involved with individual
projects. It also acted as the main
dissemination gateway to the outside
world. TCPA represented ASCCUE
on this panel and although it is
acknowledged that the process was a
steep learning curve for many, TCPA
suggest that those that stayed the
course and engaged positively would
be better informed as a result.
The importance of the stakeholder
engagement activity that developed
over the lifetime of the ASCCUE
project cannot be overstated. Looking
back, it is evident that this form of
‘social learning’ brought enormous
benefits to both sides. Not only
did stakeholders contribute their
expertise and local knowledge,
leading to an enhancement of
research activity and findings, but
also the two-way exchange between
researchers and stakeholders
undoubtedly had a positive impact
on the potential for more informed
decision-making in the future. The
social learning process has been
promoted by continuous interaction
and dialogue between the research
and stakeholder communities, a
level of trust and openness between
different parties, and a collective
effort towards developing and testing
adaptation options. The build-up of
knowledge as a result of this type of
collaborative working can only have
positive implications for the adaptive
capacity of our towns and cities.
References
CURE (2004). ASCCUE: Local
Advisory Group Workshop report-
risk assessment methodologies.
CURE, University of Manchester,
Manchester.
DOH (2004). NHS Heatwave Plan
for England – Protecting Health
and Reducing Harm from Extreme
Heat and Heatwaves, 2004 edition.
London, Department of Health.
Gill, S., Pauleit, S., Ennos, A.R.,
Lindley, S.J., Handley, J.F., Gwilliam,
J. and Ueberjahn-Tritta, A. (2004).
Literature review: Impacts of climate
change on urban environments.
CURE, University of Manchester.
http://www.sed.manchester.ac.uk/
research/cure/downloads/asccue_
litreview.pdf
Gill, S. (2006). Climate change and
urban greenspace. PhD thesis,
University of Manchester.
Gill, S., Handley, J., Ennos, R. and
Pauleit, S. (2007). Adapting cities for
climate change: the role of the green
infrastructure. Built Environment. (In
press).
Gwilliam, J., Fedeski, M., Lindley,
S., Theuray, N. and Handley, J.
(2006). Methods for assessing risk
from climate hazards in urban areas.
Municipal Engineer, 159(4), 245-255.
Jauregui, E. et al (2001). Human
Settlements, Energy & Industry. In:
McCarthy, J.J. et al (eds). Climate
Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation &
Vulnerability, Contribution of Working
Group II to the 3rd Assessment
Report of IPCC. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, Chapter
7, pp 380-416.
Land Use Consultants in association
with Oxford Brookes University, CAG
Consultants and Gardiner & Theobald
(2006). Adapting to climate change
impacts – A good practice guide for
sustainable communities. Defra,
London.
Lindley, S.J., Handley, J.F., Theuray,
N., Peet, E. and McEvoy, D. (2006).
Adaptation strategies for climate
change in the urban environment:
assessing climate change related risk
in UK urban areas. Journal of Risk
Research, 9(5), 1-26.
Lindley, S.J., Handley, J.F.,
McEvoy, D., Peet, E. and Theuray,
N. (2007). Conurbation scale risk
assessment and its implications for
the development of climate conscious
land-use planning in the UK. Built
Environment. (In press).
McEvoy, D. and Lindley, S. (2006).
Adaptive management and
climate conscious design of urban
neighbourhoods. CURE, University of
Manchester, Manchester.
McEvoy, D., Lindley, S. and Handley,
J. (2006). Adaptation and mitigation in
urban areas: synergies and conflicts.
Municipal Engineer, 159(4), 185-191.
Parry, M. and Carter, T. (1998).
Climate Impact and Adaptation
Assessment: A Guide to the IPCC
Approach. Earthscan, London.
Whitford, V., Ennos, A.R. and
Handley, J.F. (2001). “City form
and natural process” – indicators
for the ecological performance of
urban areas and their application
to Merseyside, UK. Landscape and
Urban Planning, 57 (2), 91-103.
53
BIOlogical and eNgineering Impacts of Climate change on Slopes
(BIONICS)
Project leader: Dr Stephanie Glendinning, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University
Project research partners: Loughborough University, Durham University, University of Bristol, University of Dundee,
University of Birmingham, Nottingham Trent University,
Project stakeholder partners: The Construction Industry Research and Information Association; BRE; British
Waterways; Cundall; Geotechnical Observations Ltd.; Highways Agency; Metronet; Mott Macdonald; Network Rail;
New and Renewable Energy Centre; Owen Pugh; Rail Safety and Standards Board; Scottish Crop Research Institute;
Skanska; Soil Instruments Ltd.; Stent; Tensar International Corporation; Terra Firma Ground Investigation Ltd
Project website: www.ncl.ac.uk/bionics
Climate change is likely to have
a serious detrimental effect on
huge parts of our infrastructure.
Whilst this is generally accepted
by stakeholders, there is as yet no
strategy to facilitate the planning
required to act upon it. BIONICS
will enable the effects of climate
change on infrastructure slopes
to be deduced by establishing
a unique facility consisting of
a full-scale, instrumented soil
embankment, planted with a variety
of flora with controlled heating and
rainfall at its surface. It aims to
establish a database of high-quality
embankment performance data
to enable future research into the
interaction of climate, vegetation
and engineering on the behaviour
of infrastructure earthworks. There
will be enormous future benefits
beyond BIONICS: by bringing
together the key stakeholders and
academics, it is already providing
the focus for ‘spin-off’ projects aimed
at defining and solving specific
needs-based problems. In the
longer term this strategy will enable
advanced procedures for maintaining
serviceability and safety of strategic
embankments and cuttings in addition
to advancing the science base.
Slopes make up a large proportion
of UK transport networks (£20 billion
of the estimated £60 billion asset
value of major highway infrastructure
is earthworks). Major (ultimate limit
state) failure of these slopes causes
disruption to network operation
and frustration to the public. Minor
(serviceability state) failure of rail
slopes causes speed restrictions
and daily commuter misery due to
delays. Continuous maintenance
of these slopes is essential and,
according to Perry et al. (2001), cost
54
£50 million in the year 1998/9 for
embankments alone. However, the
cost of emergency repair is ten times
greater than the cost of planned
maintenance works (O’Brien, 2001)
so the ability to predict the future
effects of climate on the infrastructure
would be of significant financial
benefit. There is evidence that the
scenario of more intense rainfall is
already having an impact on the
national transport infrastructure,
including major landslides in Scotland
(e.g. Stromeferry) and, in the winter
of 2000/1, which was documented
the wettest on record, over 100 slope
failures in the Southern Region of
Railtrack alone (O’Brien, 2001).
The strength of the materials from
which slopes are created and the
status of the water held within
the pore spaces are key factors
controlling the stability of slopes
(Vaughan et al., 1978). Changes to
the water content of clay materials
cause volume changes, leading to
areas of reduced strength which can
initiate ultimate limit state failure.
Embankments created from, and
cuttings within, the overconsolidated
clays prevalent throughout the UK
experience high negative pore water
pressures that last for approximately
10-15 years on average after
construction providing apparent
stability to the slope. With time,
these pore water pressures increase,
leading to potential instability. The
action of successive shrink-swell
cycles can lead to surface cracking,
allowing water into the embankment
and so accelerating the process. The
most critical time is when very heavy
rainfall follows a period of very dry
weather. While existing embankments
may have reached equilibrium, the
scenario of hotter drier summers,
followed by periods of more intense
rainfall will change equilibrium
conditions and have a major influence
on the rate of degradation of the
engineering condition of infrastructure
slopes.
A key influence on the water within
slopes, and hence their engineering
behaviour, is vegetation, with
beneficial effects including root
reinforcement, prevention of pore
pressure build up and surcharging
at the base of the slope. However,
serious detrimental effects include
loading the upper part of the slope,
uprooting or overturning. The
changing seasonal demand for
water causes fluctuations in soil
water content, exacerbating the
problems associated with shrinking
and swelling. Management of the
vegetation on slopes is therefore a
key issue to their owners and is an
inherent part of London Underground
Limited’s pro-active management
strategy (Gellatney et al., 1995).
Plants respond to small changes
in environment, so a temperature
difference of 1-2°C, or drought,
will alter the composition of the
plant community, its water use and
rooting characteristics. Quite apart
from their function as engineering
structures, transport corridors provide
valuable habitats for many plants and
animals, acting as linear corridors
for movement of species, so are of
great value in terms of conservation.
Climate change is predicted to cause
migration of many species but the
availability of continuous stretches of
habitat will be a severe limitation, so
transport corridors will play an even
more important ecological role in
future.
Aim
To improve understanding of climate
change impacts on slope stability by
building and monitoring a full-scale
climate-controlled embankment.
Objectives
• Build and monitor an embankment
representative of UK infrastructure
subjected to different climates;
• Plant and monitor representative
vegetation subjected to different
climates;
• Create a controlled climate (using
specification provided by the
BKCC project BETWIXT;
• Set up and run validated computer
models under present and
future climates to predict the
embankment performance;
• Develop a methodology to identify
parts of the UK infrastructure
that require further investigation
(working in connection with other
BKCC projects, in particular
CRANIUM);
• Formulate a medium to long term
research strategy, including some
specific needs-based ‘spin-off’
projects.
In addition to providing appropriately
engineered solutions to meet
stakeholder needs, the research
involves significant scientific
innovation as follows:
• The development of a fully
integrated building and fabric
moisture model incorporating
both liquid and air moisture.
Existing models make gross
simplifications about moisture
movement either assuming no
moisture movement into the fabric
or a simplified moisture penetration
depth. Conversely, fabric models
consider the room environment
as a boundary condition thereby
ignoring any interaction between
the fabric and room environment;
• A comprehensive moisture-
related data set with which to test
the validity of building moisture
models;
• A data set of historic fabric
hygrothermal properties;
• An improved method for mapping
the moisture content of the building
fabric.
The aim of the project is to establish • Two spin off projects have already
a unique facility for engineering and been funded by EPSRC:
biological research to improve the
• ALARMS (Assessment of
fundamental understanding of the
Landslides using an Acoustic
effects of climate change on slopes. It
Real Time Monitoring System).
is also to extend modelling capability
Project leader Neil Dixon,
to examine the long-term effects
Loughborough University.
of climate change on serviceability
The project will develop an
limits of embankments and develop a
early warning system for slope
methodology for identifying vulnerable
movement using the BIONICS
parts of the transport infrastructure.
embankment to test and
It will establish a database of
calibrate equipment.
embankment performance data and
develop the necessary skills to enable • Remote asset inspection
future research so that engineering for transport corridor
solutions to the effects of climate environments. Project leader
change can be devised. Stakeholders Jon Mills, Newcastle University.
and researchers will, together, identify The aim of this research is
and develop an ongoing research to develop methods in which
strategy in the field of climate change remotely sensed data can be
related to infrastructure earthworks. utilised to perform intelligent
This project is ongoing, however analysis in transport corridor
progress to date includes: environments. The BIONICS
embankment will be used as one
• The embankment has been
of the test sites in the project
constructed, the instruments are
and will facilitate calibration
in place, the controlled climate
of remote sensing data. In
system is soon to be installed and
addition it is planned to develop
measurements are being taken
a method of water content
from the geotechnical instruments;
sensing using equipment at the
• Vegetation has been selected, embankment site.
seeds have been collected,
and planting has occurred. In
addition to work on vegetation
on the trial embankment a PhD
student has set up a large scale
mesocosm experiment at Close
House (Biological field station)
to investigate a greater variety of
plant mixes than would be possible
solely with the embankment;
• A versatile and robust controlled
climate system will be installed in
spring 2007. BETWIXT data are
helping to decide what weather
patterns to run on the climate
system;
• The basic computer models
have been set up, modellers are
currently deciding on baseline
data. Validation of the computer
models will begin once several
seasons of data from the
embankment have been recorded
55
The embankment
The embankment is 6m high with
side slopes of 1 in 2 and a 5m width
crest (Figure 33). The ends of the
embankment are constructed from
reinforced soil to minimize space
requirements and access to the crest
will be provided via steps. There
will be four 18m wide test plots on
each face. The central, 36m long,
section has been constructed using
good compaction control to simulate
a newly constructed embankment.
The outer test plots (two 18m
long sections either side of the
central section) have a ‘designed’
heterogeneous structure, end-tipped
to simulate an older embankment.
The two 4m wide biological test plots
are well compacted and will provide
additional duplication for plant studies
(Figure 34).
29m
4m
18m
18m
90m
18m
18m
4m
plan view
Figure 33 Embankment schematic
Figure 34 The Embankment
56
Instrumentation
Geotechnical instrumentation has
been installed in each panel of the
embankment. Slope movement,
settlement, pore pressure and
water content can be monitored in
each of the engineered sections.
Figure 35 shows installation of
magnetic extensometers to measure
settlement.
Systems within the embankment
are continuously logged, providing
the capability for alarms to be set
when significant change is occurring
and also making the embankment
a suitable location for testing and
calibrating new prototypes of
geotechnical instruments.
reinforced earth ends
biological test plot
poor compaction test plot
impermeable membranes
between each test plot
5m
2 ensure that it provides the climatic
1
29m
cross section
highway specification test plots
poor compaction test plot
biological test plot
reinforced earth ends
5m wide crest, 0.5m granular fill capping layer
Figure 35 Installation of Magnetic Extensometers
Climate control
A controlled climate will be provided
to half of the test plots and ambient
weather monitored throughout so
that the effects of post construction
equilibration can be separated
from those changes induced by
climate. The design consists of
computer controlled flexible roofing
sections that can be pulled over the
embankment automatically when
required, and arrays of rainfall
sprinklers mounted on poles.
Oscillating sprinklers will be used
with differently sized upward-oriented
nozzles, to ensure a spatially uniform
rainfall at the ground surface with
appropriate droplet sizes. The
rainfall input will be checked during
commissioning to assess spatial
coverage, rainfall rates, and drop
size distributions. An automatic
weather station will be installed
before the start of construction to
monitor wind speed, net radiation,
temperature, relative humidity and
atmospheric pressure, with tipping
bucket and storage rain gauges to
measure rainfall rates and totals.
The performance of the proposed
arrangements will be measured to
conditions required. In particular, the
heating effect provided by covering
(and leaving covers in place over
night to prevent heat loss) will be
compared to the temperatures
predicted by climate change.
Key results and implications
for policy and practice
The first stage of the BIONICS project
is still two years from completion
but already the project is generating
results significant to UK infrastructure:
• Density testing conducted
during the construction of the
embankment demonstrated that
even when trying to minimise
the amount of construction plant
tracking over the embankment
the fill material was compacted
to a high density. This indicates
that when using certain soils the
standard highway specification is
over specified and cost savings
could be made during construction;
• Computer modelling has shown
that the inclusion of under
drainage in earth embankments
changes the most likely mode of
failure from deep seated (very
expensive to remediate) to shallow
(less expensive to remediate);
• Pore pressure measurements
have shown that high negative
pore water pressures are
generated during placement of
the embankment fill. This negative
pore water pressure has a
stabilising effect on the slopes until
it dissipates.
It is anticipated that the longer term
results from the BIONICS project
will have a significant impact on the
construction industry.
Collaboration with stakeholders
A consortium comprising 16
academics and 12 industrial
stakeholders has been brought
together to develop and manage
BIONICS. The academic membership
includes experts from 6 Universities
from across the UK. The disciplines
represented are as wide-ranging as
biology, engineering, mathematics
and soil science. The industrial
partners represent the UK transport
infrastructure industry and include
facility owners, operators and
maintainers. All of these together
make up a unique consortium
addressing the challenges of climate
change and its impact on transport
infrastructure.
Industrial stakeholders (Network
Rail, Metronet, British Waterways,
Highways Agency and others) have
contributed through project steering
committee meetings. They were
engaged in the planning of the project
from the outset.
The BIONICS stakeholder forum has
provided data on embankments from
their own networks that has been
invaluable in setting up the initial
computer models. An ongoing study
by two of the main stakeholders for
network rail will be used as “real”
embankment data to compare with
BIONICS results. Other stakeholders
have provided equipment and
materials for use on the embankment.
Geotechnical Observations is
providing some of the pore pressure
monitoring equipment and Tensar
UK designed and provided materials
for the reinforced earth structures at
each end of the embankment.
Companies involved in the
construction of the embankment and
equipment suppliers have frequently
asked to become partners in the
project after seeing the potential
benefit to their business of having
a greater understanding of climate
impacts and knowing what sort of
products and services they may
be asked to provide for the future
maintenance of UK infrastructure
embankments.
During the initial phase of the
project a BIONICS website has
been constructed to disseminate
information back to the stakeholders
in the form of reports and
presentations. In addition to this,
embankment monitoring data is
also posted on the site so that it can
be accessed by all academics and
stakeholder involved in the project.
The BIONICS website also includes
the BIONICS web forum. The web
forum has been successfully used
to discuss aspects of the project in
detail with all interested stakeholders
without the need for time consuming
journeys to a central meeting
location, it has also made it possible
to get discussion going very quickly
when critical issues have arisen when
other methods of communication may
have delayed important decisions.
Most importantly it has allowed
stakeholders to have more of a say
in how the overall project is run and
kept it relevant to their interests.
The input of stakeholders has helped
focus the research programme on
industry needs and provided an
invaluable pool of expertise to consult
whilst designing and constructing
the complex embankment research
installation.
References
Gellatney, M.J., McGinnity, B.T.,
Barker, D.H. and Rankin, W.J.
(1995). Interaction of vegetation
and LUL embankment surface
railway system. In Vegetation and
slopes. Proc. Int. Conference, 60-
71, Oxford, UK.
Glendinning, S, Rouainia, M, Hughes,
P, Davies, O. (2006). “Biological
and engineering impacts of climate
on slopes (BIONICS): The first
18 months”. In: Proceedings
of the 10th IAEG international
congress, (Culshaw, M., Reeves,
H., Spink, T., and Jefferson, I.
eds) Nottingham, 6-10 Sept. 2006
CD-rom
Greenway, D.R. (1987). Vegetation
and slope stability. In Slope
Stability, (Eds). Anderson and
Richards, John Wiley and Sons.
Perry, J., Pedley, M. and Reid,
M. (2001). Infrastructure
Embankments - condition
appraisal and remedial treatment.
CIRIA publication C550.
O’Brien, A. (2001). Personal
communication.
Skempton, A.W. (1996).
Embankments and cuttings on
the early railways. Construction
History, 11, pp33-39.
Vaughan, P.R., Soda, V. G. and
Walbancke, H.J. (1978). Factors
controlling the stability of clay fills
in Britain. Clay Fills. ICE, London,
pp 205-217.
57
Engineering Historic Futures (EHF)
Project leader: Professor May Cassar, Centre for Sustainable Heritage, UCL
Project research partners: Centre for Sustainable Heritage, UCL; The Bartlett School of Graduate Studies, UCL;
School of Engineering, Science and Design, Glasgow Caledonian University; Department of Mechanical Engineering,
Strathclyde University
Project stakeholder partners: English Heritage; Historic Scotland; The National Trust; Ecclesiastical Insurance Group;
Munters Dehumidification Ltd
Project website: www.ucl.ac.uk/sustainableheritage/historic_futures.htm
Over 80% of buildings in the UK are
over 50 years old and more than
20% of housing is listed or located
in a conservation area. The built
heritage is a non-renewable resource
recognised for its social, economic
and environmental significance. The
value of re-using historic buildings
is widely recognised. Demolition
of old buildings is no longer an
acceptable solution for cultural,
social, environmental and economic
reasons. While 0.4% of the existing
building stock is currently being
demolished per year, increasing the
rate of demolition and constructing
new buildings would, over the next 60
years, increase carbon emissions and
reduce significantly cultural heritage
assets. Adapting old buildings to
future use is the right strategic
response in terms of mitigation to
climate change.
Heritage materials are particularly
vulnerable to accelerated decay
when the environmental equilibrium is
disturbed. The EHF project focussed
upon the potential effects of changing
frequency of flooding and intense
rainfall. The drying of historic fabric
is far more complex than modern
buildings as much of the fabric cannot
and must not be replaced after water
damage. The precise construction
materials, their composition and their
assembly are not easy to identify
and historically the building fabric
has interacted naturally with the
environment and the ground, allowing
moisture to be transported through
the fabric and to evaporate from its
surfaces. This natural interaction will
change if the projected changes to
the climate occur.
58
Current conservation advice for
drying historic buildings is that the
process should be carried out slowly
to avoid hygrothermal stresses in the
fabric. In the historic past, a flooded
building dried by natural ventilation
and was reoccupied while the fabric
was still damp. The drying process
could take several months. More
recently, there has been growing
pressure from owners and insurers
to dry buildings rapidly for health and
safety and hygiene reasons, to bring
buildings back into use more quickly
in order to control costs of re-housing
and business interruption and to
re-establish conditions unfavourable
to wood decay. Furthermore, the
presence of electrical wiring and
other services, and the incidence of
mould growth where buildings have
been occupied too soon, mean that
it is necessary to dry a building as
much as possible before reoccupation
– and the technology to dry buildings
rapidly is now available. However it
needs evaluation for use in historic
buildings to determine the resultant
stresses in the fabric and whether
rapid drying leads to irreversible
distortion in materials, catastrophic
failure, cryptocrystallisation within
masonry and salt efflorescence
and to compare these effects to
corresponding damage when the
fabric is slowly dried.
There is also a need to identify the
best methods for managing flooding
and damage and to develop the
most appropriate strategies to dry
the historic fabric. Appropriately
engineered solutions are needed
to adapt historic buildings to the
problems they will encounter with
a changing climate, including more
frequent moisture penetration as a
result of higher ground water and
increased rainfall or longer dry
periods that can lead to subsidence
and tree root damage.
Discussions with the key heritage
stakeholders English Heritage,
Historic Scotland, The National
Trust and key commercial and
industrial stakeholders, Ecclesiastical
Insurance Group and Munters UK
Ltd identified fabric saturation and
the drying of buildings after flooding
as key problems for investigation.
Recognising that not all moisture-
related problems in the built heritage
can be studied, this project focuses
on adaptation to water ingress and
drying of the fabric. The findings
from this area of research are also
applicable to a wide range of moisture
and building-related problems ranging
from relative humidity control in
museums and galleries through to
controlling moisture related health
problems such as mould growth
and house dust mites in fuel poor
housing.
Aim
The specific aims of the Engineering
Historic Futures project were to
gain an increased understanding
of the wetting properties and drying
processes of historic masonry walls,
specifically those constructed of brick
and sandstone.
Objectives
The research was divided into eight
main objectives that applied different
methodologies (described below):
• To develop a specification of user
requirements to ensure good
understanding of current moisture-
related problems facing historic
buildings and to identify key
problems that may be exacerbated
by climate change;
• To identify appropriate case study
sites that had suffered water
damage.;
• To carry out field monitoring at
case study sites to understand
better the complexity of the
problems and to provide data for
testing the model;
• To understand better through
laboratory measurements what
happens in the field.
• To develop appropriate
hygrothermal models to assess
different drying scenarios;
• To undertake a socio-economic
evaluation of different adaptation
strategies;
• To provide appropriate guidance to
stakeholders;
• To participate in cross-project
BKCC initiatives.
Methodologies
A range of methodologies to suit the
different objectives was applied:
• To develop a specification of
user requirements, participative
exchanges with stakeholders
including workshops, face-to-face
unstructured interviews and the
dissemination of a questionnaire
were used.
• Data including qualitative reports
and photographs, cost estimates
and quantitative measurements
of moisture content, timber
movement and degree of fungal
attack and analysis of existing
monitored data was collected
from water-damaged properties
managed by the stakeholder
project partners.
• Intensive field monitoring of
external climate, internal air
temperature and humidity, fabric
moisture content, and ventilation
rates was undertaken at two sites,
one vulnerable to driving rain
ingress and the other to direct
flooding.
• Two test walls were constructed at
Glasgow Caledonian University to
replicate as much as possible the
wall types at Blickling Hall, Norfolk
(clay brick) (Figure 36) and Brodick
Castle, Isle of Arran (sandstone)
(Figure 37) and to represent typical
historic building walls. Laboratory
measurements on the test walls
were carried out to enable detailed
study of two-dimensional moisture
profiles through the different fabric
structures.
• A drying model consisting of a
combined building and fabric,
transient heat conduction and
moisture movement model,
was developed to understand
better the field and laboratory
measurements and to test future
scenarios and novel drying
techniques. This model considers
the moisture content both within
the domain of the construction
element and the air domain of the
internal environment with external
conditions as the driving boundary
conditions. The Engineering
Historic Futures drying model
participated in a world-wide
comparative exercise to test
building models against each other
and against measured data (IEA
Annex 41).
• A multi-disciplinary team of
insurers, economists, conservation
scientists and conservators from
with the project team and from the
University of Bath, quantified the
direct and indirect costs of climate
impacts on the built heritage.
• Guidance and dissemination of
the project findings was achieved
via workshops, a website and
publications. Four project
workshops were held in London
and Glasgow with one of the
workshops receiving coverage on
national TV. Stakeholders actively
participated throughout the project
by helping direct the research and
providing valuable support and
guidance including access to the
buildings and historic materials,
and in the preparation of the final
report which is being commercially
published.
• Active participation and regular
attendance at EPSRC BKCC
meetings demonstrated a model
of stakeholder interaction and
working with other consortia
including “Adaptable Urban
Drainage Systems for Climate
Change” (AUDACIOUS). The
AUDACIOUS project team
attended the EHF project meeting
held at Glasgow Caledonian
University in July 2004 to present
their modelling work and to visit
the Brodick Castle case study
site to examine the suitability of
the building for modelling of the
drainage. Future climate scenarios
for 2020s (2011 - 2041) and 2080s
(2071 - 2100) were modelled
using climatic data generated by
BETWIXT, another BKCC research
consortium.
59
Figure 36 Blickling Hall, Norfolk
© The National Trust
Figure 37 Brodick Castle, Isle of
Arran the moisture content of walls was
© Crown copyright reserved Historic
Scotland Images 2007
60
Results and implications for
policy and practice
The implications of the Engineering
Historic Futures research can be
summarised in the following key
findings:
Characterisation of materials
For the first time the hygrothermal
properties of two common historic
building materials, sandstone
and Jacobean clay brick have
been characterised. This data is
essential for detailed modelling of the
performance of historic buildings.
Monitoring
The electrical resistance
measurement of small wooden
dowels commonly used to measure
suitable for measuring average
conditions over a period of several
weeks or longer (Figures 38 and
39) but not appropriate for transient
conditions and may give a pessimistic
assessment of the drying of buildings.
Hygrothermal modelling
A novel computer model (Canute)
was developed which models the
interaction of hygrothermal conditions
both inside and outside buildings and
within the fabric. Canute also models
water as a liquid and vapour in two
dimensions and so it can examine
the flooding and drying of historic
buildings which are free floating
(i.e. have non-conditioned internal
environments).
Future modelled climate scenarios for
2020s and 2080s did not suggest any
changes in the effect of increased
driving rain in south west Scotland,
and the overall effect suggested by
the modelling completed so far is that
there is a greater tendency for drying
of the stone (Figure 40) building
fabric rather than wetting.
Management and maintenance
Maintenance, in particular of
guttering and mortar joints, will
become increasingly important with
increased rainfall. The amount of
run-off collected from driving rain on
sandstone walls is found to increase
with the quantity of water sprayed
onto the wall. This is because the
amount of water absorbed by the wall
is limited by its surface absorption
characteristics.
Wetting and drying of historic
materials.
The research established that during
flooding, historic brick walls may
absorb up to 70 litres of water per
meter length. With dehumidification,
the core of a brick wall takes two
months to dry.
Economic impact of climate change
The total present (i.e. discounted)
cost of climate change induced
flooding of two churches over the
period 2011-2100 – with no adaptive
measures beyond straightforward
repair of the damage - range from
£35,000 to £90,000.
Figure 38 Measured wall moisture content (resistance units) for the west tower wall, Brodick Castle, 2004-05, shown as
a cross section though the wall, with room and external environmental data. This wall receives nearly twice the driving
rain as the east wall and suffers from a defect on the parapet flashing. Consequently, the lower wall moisture probes are
saturated, with high moisture contents also measured further up the wall.

Figure 39 Measured wall moisture content (resistance units) for the east tower wall, Brodick Castle, 2004-05 shown as
a cross section though the wall, with room and external environmental data. The wall receives much less driving rain
and is in a good state of repair. It is clearly much drier than the west wall.

61
Figure 40 Modelled annual wall moisture contents at the Blickling Hall case
study site for 1970 (top row, green lines), 2020 (middle row, blue lines) and
2080 (bottom row, red lines). The results suggest that wall moisture content
will change little until the 2080s, when the wall will begin to dry out during the
summer months.
Stakeholder View:
The National Trust
This statement summarises the
perspective of The National Trust,
one of Britain’s foremost heritage
management organisations on the
Engineering Historic Futures project.
What our needs are?
The Trust is concerned about the
increasing incidence of flooding and
water penetration problems in our
historic properties which is likely to
be a consequence of global climate
change. These incidents have
been caused by flooding from river
overflows or sea surges, urban and
rural water run-off from inadequate
surface drainage and increased
severe rainfall and storminess.
The effect of these incidents on
historic properties has caused
flooding of basements and ground
floor rooms, roof leaks, overflowing
of rainwater goods and damp
penetration through window
surrounds and walls. In order to
deal in a more effective way with
the problems caused by water
penetration in historic properties, the
Trust needs to find reliable methods
for monitoring moisture in masonry
walls, suitable techniques for the
drying out of flood affected walls, a
62
better understanding of the wetting
and drying properties of different wall
materials and a model for predicting
the wetting and drying behaviour of
different masonry walls.
The Trust’s expectations of the
research were to develop a better
understanding of the dynamic
movement of water through flooded
brick and stone wall structures, an
understanding of how drying works
and differs for different building
fabrics, experimental brick and
stone walls which would be effective
proxies for the behaviour of the
two test wall sites in response to
wetting and drying interventions,
the establishment of a wetting and
drying model for historic buildings and
the establishment of best practice
guidelines for drying out of buildings
in the event of a flood or water
ingress.
Comments on the findings
The results were seriously hampered
by a moisture sampling technique
(electrical resistance measurements)
which was inadequate for walls
with high saturation and they did
not provide a deeper understanding
of the dynamic nature of water
movement in masonry. Trialling
other comparative assisted drying
methods apart from dehumidification
could have been considered, such
as forced air ventilation. The
results from the model have been
encouraging, but in its present form
it has not been able to provide a
complete picture, in part due to
the complexity of historic buildings
compared with modern buildings.
The way forward
Further research should be focused
on the following areas to build on the
experiences of Engineering Historic
Futures:
• Improved methods for monitoring
moisture within the building fabric
• The development of methods of
monitoring the equilibrium moisture
state of buildings
• Understanding the relationship
between moisture content and
deterioration of materials under
moisture induced stress
• Work on a simplified model for
non-specialists which is able to
predict likely behaviour based on
an understanding of certain key
parameters
References
Cassar, M. and Hawkings, C. (2007).
Engineering Historic Futures,
Stakeholders Dissemination and
Scientific Research Report. UCL
Centre for Sustainable Heritage,
London. http://www.ucl.ac.uk/
sustainableheritage/ehf_report_
web.pdf
Cassar, M. (2005). Climate Change
and the Historic Environment.
Centre for Sustainable Heritage,
University College London with
support from English Heritage
and the UK Climate Impacts
Programme. http://eprints.ucl.
ac.uk/archive/00002082/01/
Published_Climate_Change_
Report_05.pdf
Cassar, M. Towards Evidence for
Policy Development in the area
of Climate Change and World
Heritage. In the 7th European
Union Conference ‘Sauveur’
Safeguarded Cultural Heritage
Understanding and Viability for
the Enlarged Europe, Prague,
31st May-3rd June 2006 http://
www.arcchip.cz/ec-conference/
presentations/Session%20V/0955-
1005%20Cassar.ppt
Cassar, M. and Pender, R. (2005).
The Impact of Climate Change on
Cultural Heritage: Evidence and
Response. Preprints of the ICOM-
CC Triennial Conference, The
Hague, September 2005, James X
James Publishers.
European Union 6th Framework
Programme for Research. ‘Global
Climate Change Impact on Built
Heritage and Cultural Landscapes
(Noah’s Ark)’ Research Project
(SSPI-CT-2003-501837), June
2005-May 2008. http://noahsark.
isac.cnr.it/reports.php

63
A Generic Process for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on the Electricity Supply
Industry and Utilities (GENESIS)
Project leader: Dr Simon Watson, Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology, University of Loughborough
Project research partners: Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology, University of Loughborough;
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol
Project stakeholder partners: National Grid; E.ON/Central Networks; Building Research Establishment.
Changes in both supply and demand
have potentially serious effects for
major utility providers. Extreme
weather events already infrequently
cause significant disruption to supply,
but an increased rate of climate
change could exacerbate this and
also lead to a significant shift in the
demand profile.
Research was therefore required to
better understand the likely future
conditions in which utilities will have
to operate, and accordingly to match
supply and demand.
Power supplies are particularly
vulnerable to unusual combinations
of weather, such as windstorms and
freezing rain. Predicting such events
is difficult even within the current
climate, but by using new analytical
techniques, we should be able to gain
more reliable information on future
risks, such as the degree of structural
loading or the seasonal pattern of
extreme events. This will assist in
identifying and upgrading critical parts
of the network in order to minimise
risks associated with future security
of supply.
Signals and telecommunications
are critical parts of utility systems
that are potentially at increased risk,
due to changes in wind patterns
and lightning activity during storms.
Predictive tools that provide better
condition monitoring of structures will
be important to maintain and enhance
efficiency.
64
For power production, the future
climate will have impacts on
performance and resources.
Transmission networks could be
particularly vulnerable, suggesting
that an assessment of overhead
versus underground systems would
be very useful in terms of optimal
performance and routing. This would
involve comparative risk analysis
including factors such as damage
from wind and subsidence. A warmer
climate could also impact upon the
efficiency of power station cooling
systems and the performance of
turbines. It will also require a re-
evaluation of the pollution risks,
notably due to changes in dispersal
plumes from stacks and discharges of
cooling and process water.
Renewable sources of energy are
likely to play an increasing role in
future energy provision. However,
the viability of the different renewable
energy sources (wind, wave, tidal,
solar, biomass) needs to be evaluated
against the changes in the associated
climate resources. This requires
better modelling techniques so that
we can quantify the robustness of
power supply from each source.
Offshore and coastal installations will
require a full assessment of likely
future change. Both structures and
operations on offshore platforms
may need to be adapted. As a large
number of power stations are situated
adjacent to the sea for cooling water,
the future vulnerability of energy
supplies needs to be considered
in the context of projected future
change in the coastal zone. Similarly,
riverside locations need to be
assessed for future flood risk.
An important step in assessing
future service provision is predicting
changes in future seasonal and
daily usage patterns. For the energy
sector, a warmer climate may mean
that current seasonal patterns of
demand are modified and peaks
occur at a different time of day.
Warmer temperatures may also
benefit one source of energy over
another, such as those which are the
most efficient and economic in those
conditions.
As well as climate change, socio-
economic factors will have a large
impact on future utilities. These
may occur independently of climate
change, such as market liberalisation,
or may be a result of individuals and
organisations adapting to their new
climate.
Research therefore also needs to
cover these societal issues, such
as exploring the consequences
of changes in demand from
increased air conditioning during
warmer summers.Work practices
may also change, such as a move
towards more homeworking. Taken
together, better prediction of these
different factors will allow a clearer
identification of future requirements.
For example, it could be the case that
a switch to micro-energy production,
involving smaller on-site Combined
Heat and Power (CHP) systems
would be more robust to change than
large-scale centralised sites.
Climate change impacts research in
the energy sector clearly needs to be
linked with that on energy efficiency
and climate change mitigation
measures. This will require an
evaluation of design and economic
issues over the whole lifetime that a
particular energy source is utilised.
Aim
To assess both the impact of the
UKCIP02 climate change scenarios
and socio-economic scenarios
(BESEECH) on the energy
consumption of the electricity supply
industry.
Objectives
• To identify key climate impacts
for the Electricity Supply Industry
(ESI);
• Apply models to assess changing
patterns in energy use due
to climate change and socio-
economic factors;
• Assess climate impacts on wind
power generation;
• Use a model to describe how
stakeholder performance demands
from the ESI can be mapped
through to technical performance
requirements.
Methodology Meteorological data
Data for a number of meteorological
The project was divided into six
parameters, namely temperature,
integrated work packages addressing
wind speed, precipitation, sunshine
the areas described below:
hours and relative humidity, were
• A description of the datasets used obtained from the Met.Office
in the project; concurrent with the National Grid
demand data in order to build the load
• General description of
forecasting models. In addition, data
methodology;
from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset
• Development of load forecasting (Simmons and Gibson, 2002) was
models; used to study the dependency of wind
turbine failures on meteorological
• Impact of climate change on wind
parameters.
power;
Distribution network data
• Simulation of transmission
Half-hourly substation demand data
network;
over two years and network data
• Development and integration of were obtained from Central Networks
systems models. for parts of Birmingham. Limited
analysis was made using these data
In order to illustrate the application of
to develop demand models for a
the methodology, a number of data
smaller (regional) area.
sets was obtained. Some of these
data came from industry stakeholders Socio-economic data
and some from other BKCC Projected future electricity demand
consortium partners. A description of required an estimate of population
these datasets is given below: change over this period. BESEECH
National grid data provided scenarios up to 2050 to
allow general demand growth to be
A large part of the project was
estimated.
to develop a model for electricity
demand on different timescales
(monthly, daily and hourly)
projecting forward to 2080. This was
underpinned by national hourly and
half-hourly load data for England
and Wales for the period 1970 to
2003, provided by National Grid plc.
Another large part of the work was
involved with assessing the changing
power flows within the transmission
network. This was based on publicly
available data from the National
Grid Seven Year Statement (2006)
giving details of transmission lines
and power stations connected to the
network.
65

Climate change scenario data
Once the demand forecasting models
had been built, it then required future
projected climate parameters in order
to provide future load patterns. The
BETWIXT weather generator was
provided representative time series
with the correct autoregressive
properties consistent with the
UKCIP02 scenarios for 2020, 2050
and 2080.
Wind turbine failure data
In order to study the dependence of
wind turbine failure on changes in
extreme wind speed, data on wind
turbine failure statistics from the
Windstats periodical (2002) were
extracted and summarised. These
data were used to build models of
wind turbine failure as a function of
climate parameters, most notably
wind speed.
ibuilding system models
2
identifying
problem and required
performance
ibuilding system models
1 3
4
a the longer term, gradual changes in
Stakeholder workshops and
interviews
The lack of industry awareness
and appreciation of climate change
impacts was reflected in the fact
that, due to changes in personnel,
several of the industry stakeholders
who had originally intended to
support the project were unable to
do so, as the issue did not have
sufficient business priority. However,
through two workshops and a
number of structured interviews,
the views of a representative
cross-section of stakeholders,
including representatives from
National Grid, E.ON, UK Climate
Impacts Programme, Met Office,
Environmental Change Institute
(Oxford University) and an industry
specialist from Edinburgh University,
were acquired and built into the
project knowledge base.
iassessing impacts
on system
performance
Key results
Generic description of the GENESIS
process
Stakeholder analysis revealed
many issues that the methodology
should take account of. The
impact of climate change on the
UK Electricity Supply Industry is
heavily dependent on the roles of
the various stakeholders involved
with generation, transmission,
distribution, supply and regulation.
The ESI is a complex market, with
the relationships and interactions
between these stakeholders, and
their associated business priorities,
changing continually and often rapidly
(e.g. through takeovers, fluctuation
in basic fuel supplies and consumer
demand, etc.). The characteristics of
the infrastructure itself are continually
changing, for example by the
introduction of new technologies that
enable greater capacity from existing
transmission lines. The impacts of
climate change manifest themselves
indirectly through changes in
performance and capacity of the
infrastructure. Over short time scales,
such changes tend to be associated
with extreme weather events (e.g.
snow storms, floods, heat waves
etc.), which can lead to localised or
even complete system failures. Over

limit states demand

identifying the problem, building the system models scenarios assessing impacts on the
objectives and criteria system performance
capacity
identifying the scenarios building the scenarios
problem situation building the building the
system system
external
actions on demand model capacity model
demand instantiating the system state
identifying systems objectives
external actual
actions on building the overall (percieved)
capacity system model state comparing actual system state
identifying identifying with system limit state
stakeholders legislative
requirements requirements, performance
constraints building the system measure
and codes process model
of practice processes process
model assessing the system
performance and its
acceptability in each scenario
specifying the performance reviewing and modifying system
criteria (limit states) and the to adapt to impacts
uncertainties associated with it
identifying adaption issues
performance model

understanding anticipated
impacts on the system identifying and appraising
adaption options

modify modify modify

criteria demand making adaption decisions capacity modify scenarios
and planning actions
b

Figure 41 GENESIS process. (a) This contains four main sub-processes: ‘Identifying the problem, objectives and
criteria’, ‘Building the system models’, ‘Assessing impacts on system performance’, and ‘Renewing and modifying system
to adapt to impacts’, enacted in sequence. (b) The second level of sub-processes shows the feedback loops between the
processes.

66
mean climate parameters, such as
temperature, can have a significant
effect on the system’s performance
and capacity, but are not as evident
as extreme failures and can easily be
overlooked if not actively evaluated.
Future climate scenarios are being
refined continually, both in spatial and
temporal resolution, but are couched
in significant uncertainty, especially
for long range estimates running into
decades and for localised extreme
event data. The impact of climate
change on customer demand is also
highly uncertain and changeable,
depending on the climate and socio-
economic scenarios. In a business
context, climate change impacts are
currently difficult to characterise and
appreciate, with the consequence
that they are given lower priority than
other more tangible issues.
All of the above observations
suggest that the ESI as a whole
is a complex adaptive system,
responding to continual change
and riddled with epistemic and
aleatory uncertainty. An effective
climate impact assessment
methodology must be seen as a
continual process that stimulates
the acquisition and retention of new
knowledge, is a harmonised part of
the normal strategic and operational
management process, and supports
risk-based decision making. In
essence, the methodology should
embed climate change impacts into
the everyday thinking, modelling and
operation of the ESI.
The GENESIS methodology
(Marashi, 2006) is based on a
simple cyclic learning model
(Figure 41). This seeks to build
and continually update models of
the required system performance
(drawn from a reconciled view of the
stakeholder needs), the climate and
customer demand scenarios, the
system capacity and actual system
performance, etc. These, generally
dynamic, models are instantiated
with observed data and run to give
forecasts of short to long term
performance. The system’s capacity
and performance are characterised in
terms of Key Performance Indicators
or state variables. The system and
model performances are reviewed
and corrective actions (in the form of
strategic and operational decisions)
and model updates are made
accordingly. The overall performance
goal is to ensure that the ESI has
sufficient capacity to meet short and
long term demands. The former are
met by active management of the
generation, while the latter are met by
appropriate infrastructure upgrading
and renewal.
Development of load forecasting
models
In this project, several load
forecasting models have been
developed to assess climate change
impacts on electricity demand
patterns. Each model was verified
and refined repeatedly using
historical data until the results gave
a satisfactory fit. For long-term
electricity demand projections,
the models make use of four
climate change scenarios defined
using the UKCIP02/BETWIXT
weather generator known as ‘Low
Emissions’, ‘Medium-Low Emissions’,
‘Medium-High Emissions’ and ‘High
Emissions’ over three time scales:
2020s (2011 - 2040), 2050s (2041
- 2070) and 2080s (2071 - 2100).
The models also incorporated four
socio-economic trends i.e. gross
domestic product and population
growth defined by the BESEECH
project. The load forecasting models
were developed for three timescales:
monthly, weekly and hourly demand.
Figure 42 shows how the monthly
demand patterns in England and
Wales are predicted to change over
the period 2011 to 2100 under the
four emissions scenarios (Hor et
al., 2005). The Low Emissions (LE)
scenario does not sure the lowest
growth in electricity consumption
as the demand is also a function of
economic growth which is not lowest
for this scenario.
Figure 42 shows a comparison of the
predicted monthly load pattern during
the 2080s in England and Wales
under the Low Emissions (LE) and
High Emissions (HE) scenarios. The
HE scenario results in significantly
increased summer temperatures
compared to the LE scenario. This
gives a noticeable summer peak
under the HE scenario which is not
seen in the LE scenario. This reflects
significant growth in the required
air-conditioning/cooling load in the
summer under the HE scenario.
Figure 43 and Figure 44 show how
the hourly demand pattern in England
and Wales is predicted to vary by
season in the 2020s and 2080s
under the HE scenario. The demand
patterns in the 2020s do not show
a significant change in the shape
of the profiles compared to present
day. However, moving forward to the
2050s, summer demand has notably
risen while winter demand reduces
(not shown). By the 2080s, summer
demand is expected to exceed winter
demand during the day as seen in
Figure 44. Once again this shows the
rise in demand for air-conditioning
and cooling during the hotter
summers. This may have implications
for the scheduling of generation plant
maintenance which is traditionally
carried out during the summer in the
UK. The summer profile will have its
peak shifted noticeably to between
mid-day and afternoon.
67
Impact of climate change on wind 250 162
power

HE: electricity consumption

LE: electricity consumption

248 160
The most important impact on wind
power generation was likely to be 246
158

(TWh / month)

(TWh / month)
changes in wind speed patterns for 244
two reasons: 156
242
• Changes in mean wind speed 154
240
would lead to changes in mean
238 152
wind power output in the long term; HE 2080s
236 LE 2080s 150
• Changes in extreme wind speeds
could lead to increases in damage 234 148
and possible failure. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
month
It was clear from the research carried
out and from the BETWIXT data, Figure 42 A comparison of England and Wales electricity consumption
that mean changes in wind speed patterns under Low Emissions (LE) and the High Emissions (HE) scenarios for
were very slight if at all, and that
the climate model predictions of 9000 spring 2020s high emission scenario
wind speed patterns were subject summer
to a large level of uncertainty, larger 8000
autumn
than for temperature predictions. In 7000 winter
demand (MW)

addition, there was a large level of

uncertainty on changes in extreme 6000
wind speed. In the absence of
5000
reliable data, this part of the project
concentrated on building models 4000
for failure prediction. Several
components were studied in the 3000
wind turbine drive train, and the 2000
component that showed one of the 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400
highest dependencies on wind speed hour
was the blades.
Figure 43 England and Wales hourly demand patterns by season in the 2020s
Figure 45 shows a plot of how under the High Emission scenario.
Danish blade failures depend on
wind speed. In this case the number spring
9000 2080s high emission scenario
of blade failures per month was summer
plotted against the number of times 8000
autumn
the six-hourly wind speed averaged winter
7000
over Denmark, went above 20m/s
demand (MW)

in that month. This plot was based 6000

on 10 years of data. Although there
is some scatter in the data and 5000
the data are quite sparse, there is
4000
nonetheless a definite relationship
between frequency of intense winds 3000
and blade failure. This relationship
could then be used with data for 2000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400
expected wind speed extremes under
hour
different climate change scenarios
to predict expected blade damage to
wind turbines. At present, these future Figure 44 England and Wales hourly demand patterns by season in the 2080s
extreme wind speed data statistics under the High Emission scenario.
are not available with any confidence.
It should also be noted that there is
no publicly available data on UK wind
turbine failures.
Danish wind turbine blade failures per
turbine per year against the number
of times per month that the six-hourly
wind speed went above 20m/s. The
dotted line shows the line of best fit
to the data with the equation given in
the figure.

68
Simulation of the transmission 0.25 y = 0.0125x + 0.0372
network
In order to assess the effect of 0.20
changing demand patterns on the
England and Wales transmission
system, national demand data 0.15
predicted using the hourly load
forecasting model were split into 0.10
10 regions (Northeast, Northwest,
Yorkshire, East Midlands, West
Midlands, Eastern, London, 0.05
Southeast, Southwest, Wales)
according to the population figures 0
from the BESEECH socio-economic 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
data. In each region, the number six-hourly wind speed values >20m/s (1/mnth)
of Grid Supply Points (GSPs) was
Figure 45 Danish wind turbine blade failures per turbine per year against the
estimated (as the data is incomplete)
number of times per month that the six-hourly wind speed went above 20m/s.
and the regional demand was divided
The dotted line shows the line of best fit to the data with the equation given in
equally, meaning that each GSP
would take approximately the same
amount of power. The seasonal
hourly demand data were projected
forward to the 2020s, 2050s and
2080s based on the four climate
change scenarios and loaded into a
transmission model of the England
and Wales network using the
PowerWorld Simulator software to
identify changes in transmission line
loading. National Grid (2006) was
used to assess generation capacity
into the near future. Scheduling and
dispatch of power plant depended
on transmission line constraints,
but full optimum economic dispatch
was not implemented. Figure 46(a)
shows an example of a simulation
showing a summer day in the 2020s
under the HE scenario where some
line constraints (pink shows 100%
overloading, red 65% overloading,
yellow 39% overloading and green a
marginal overloading) are to be
expected in the London area between
12:00pm – 3:00pm. Figure 46(b)
shows the resulting power flows for
the same time of the day but during
the 2080s. It can be seen that there
is severe overloading in certain areas
which would require transmission
line upgrading, though it should be
pointed out that the overall electricity
demand growth rate predicted this far
in the future is speculative.
Transmission line power flows
between 12pm and 3pm in the
London area during (a) the 2020s and
(b) the 2080s under the HE scenario.
Pink=100% overloading, red=65%
overloading, yellow=39% overloading,
green=marginal overloading.
b
The transmission network modelling
so far illustrates general patterns of Figure 46 Transmission line power flows between 12pm and 3pm in the
power flow, but would need more London area during (a) the 2020s and (b) the 2080s under the HE scenario.
data for a comprehensive and refined Pink=100% overloading, red=65% overloading, yellow=39% overloading,
analysis of the network. Nonetheless, green=marginal overloading.

69
it illustrates some of the performance
parameters, e.g. transmission line
loading, which would then feed into
the PeriMeta-based systems model.
Development and integration of
systems models
A new framework, known as the
Evidential Discourse for ENgineering
(EDEN) methodology (Marashi and
Davis, 2006; Marashi, 2006) and its
corresponding PeriMeta-2 software
have been developed to improve
the process of handling evidence
and arguments leading to decisions,
with improved mathematics for
dealing with uncertainty. Moreover,
the framework helps users to
elicit and combine qualitative
and quantitative aspects of the
performance of systems in a ‘wicked’
problem, like climate change impact
assessment. The result is a view
of the system’s performance in the
form of a hierarchy of interconnected
processes. The evidence and
reasoning for and against the
satisfactory performance of each
sub-process is gathered and stored
within the PeriMeta model. The
performance of each sub-process
evidence that
A is successful lack of evidence
0 1
Figure 47 Italian Flag
time histories of performance
satisfactory
unsatisfactory
RCEP generation mix
capacity scenarios
generation
mix
scenario
CHP temperature dependent
capacity model
climate
Loughborough
scenario demand model
Figure 48 Integration of system models to determine system performance
time history
70
is denoted by an ‘Italian Flag’ bar
containing green, white and red
bands (Figure 47). The extent of
the green band represents the
evidence in favour of the sub-process
performance. The extent of the
red band represents the evidence
against. The white band between
the green and red represents the
uncertainty.
A newly developed approach enables
the evidence and uncertainties to
be combined at each level of the
hierarchy and propagated upwards.
The ideal goal is for the root process
at the top of the hierarchy to have a
totally green Italian Flag. PeriMeta
allows instantaneous visualisation
of the effects on the overall system
performance of adjusting the
performance of a sub-process. This
allows the user to identify critical
sub-processes and to explore the
impact of, for example, different
intervention strategies. The evidence
and argumentation recording features
of PeriMeta enable the reasoning
and rationale behind decisions to be
captured and communicated better
amongst a group of stakeholders.
evidence that
A is not successful
PeriMeta is designed to integrate
information from a variety of
simulation models, field observations,
etc. It accepts time history
information in a simple format and
displays a time history of the resultant
performance of any process as
indicated in Figure 48. This is a
simplified example of how various
models are integrated within the
GENESIS framework.
In this case, a generation capacity
scenario is defined and the
temperature sensitivity of the capacity
of the combined heat and power
element of the mix is picked out as an
example (here the model is a simple
graph, but it could be a simulation
model). A climate scenario is also
defined, giving the temperature
parameter to feed into the CHP
capacity model. The climate scenario
also defines the parameters that are
fed into the demand model.
The capacity and demand models are
fed into an ESI simulation model (for
example a PowerWorld or SIMULINK
simulation), which outputs, in this
case, a forecast of the capacity
margin. This in turn is fed through a
mapping function, known as a Figure
of Merit, which yields an Italian Flag
distribution for a particular sub-
process in the PeriMeta hierarchical
performance model. PeriMeta then
yields a performance time history
for the root process, where green
indicates satisfactory performance
and red unsatisfactory. Figure 48
shows the time history outputs for two
emissions scenarios.
The PeriMeta model can integrate
information from many other models,
each feeding into one or more
sub-processes in the hierarchy
as appropriate. At present, the
underpinning climate, emissions
and generation mix data are too
ill-defined to render the output from
this particular model meaningful.
The next phase of development
should be to apply this methodology
to the detailed study of a particular
aspect of the ESI, for example the
transmission system performance.
Detailed studies of some typical
components have not revealed any
significant deficiencies in existing
conventional design models. There is
a case regularly to review standard
climate loadings in codes of practice
and standard procedures. The main
climate impact issues are at the
system level.
Implications for policy and
practice
• The GENESIS project has
clearly identified the need
to consider climate change
impacts on the performance of
the Electricity Supply Industry
in a holistic manner with all
other environmental, strategic,
operational and commercial
issues. All of these continuously
changing issues intersect in
complex ways and should not
be separated out and handled in
isolation.
• Climate impact assessment, and
the concomitant adaptation of
the ESI to accommodate these
impacts, must be embedded as
a continuous process within the
normal strategic, operational and
business processes of the industry.
• All stakeholders must recognise
that they have an important role
to play in ensuring that climate
change impact is at the core
of the industry’s drive towards
sustainability. It must become part
of the industry’s normal mindset.
• The GENESIS process provides
a generic, adaptable, risk-
based framework for building
and retaining knowledge and
understanding about climate
change impact on the required
performance of the ESI. It enables
the integration of objective and
subjective information from a wide
range of sources, including data
from field observations, simulation
models, and expert opinion and
argumentation, as a means for
exploring scenarios and options for
action. The PeriMeta-2 software is
an enabling a tool for this process.
• The pilot studies conducted
within the GENESIS project have
highlighted the significant gaps and
uncertainties in the current climate
data and technical information
about the ESI infrastructure
and business processes. These
gaps and uncertainties need to
be resolved over time if climate
change impacts are to be
managed effectively.
• The future climate scenarios for
the UK do not differ from existing
climates around the world,
where electricity supply systems
already perform satisfactorily.
However, this is not to say that
the specifications of existing
equipment and systems in the
UK are necessarily satisfactory
for these future scenarios.
Preliminary indications are that
existing equipment would cope
with the slowly varying trends in
mean climate parameters, such
as temperature, at least in the
short to medium term. Short
term extremes, such as wind
storms and icing, might be more
problematic, but more reliable
localised weather data are needed
to answer this question. Further
detailed studies of typical systems,
using the GENESIS process, are
strongly recommended to explore
this issue.
• The limited GENESIS studies
have not revealed any significant
deficiencies, with respect to
climate impact, in conventional
design and analysis models and
procedures for the physical system
and its components. However, it
is recommended that the standard
climate parameters in these
procedures be updated periodically
in the light of improved climate
data.
• The GENESIS project was not
intended to produce an exhaustive
and detailed assessment of how
climate change would affect such
a complex system as the ESI. It
is strongly recommended that a
detailed study of an exemplar part
of the ESI now be conducted.
• The GENESIS generic process
is not specific to the ESI. It
is applicable in principle to
any complex infrastructure
system, such as water
supply, gas transmission, and
telecommunications. Nor is
it specific to climate impact
assessment. It is applicable, in
principle, to any natural hazard
(e.g. earthquake) or human or
industrial hazard.
References
Davis J.P., Marashi, E. and Taylor,
C.A. (2006). ‘Climate change
simulations on electricity supply
infrastructure’, Joint International
Conference on Computing and
Decision-making in Civil and
Building Engineering (ICCCBE XI),
14-16 June, Montreal, pp. 722-
731.
Hor, C. L., Watson, S. J. and
Majithia, S. (2005). ‘Analyzing the
Impact of Weather Variables on
Monthly Electricity Demand’. IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems
20 pp 2078-2085.
Marashi, E. (2006). ‘Managing
discourse and uncertainty for
decision-making in civil and
infrastructure engineering
systems’, PhD Thesis, Department
of Civil Engineering, University of
Bristol
Marashi, E. and Davis, J.P. (2006).
‘An argumentation-based method
for managing complex issues in
design of infrastructural systems’,
Reliability Engineering and
System Safety, Special Issue
on Complexity in Design and
Engineering, Vol. 91, No. 12, 1535-
45.
National Grid plc. (2006). ‘2006
GB Seven-Year Statement’.
http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/
sys%5F06/, last accessed 22/1/07.
Simmons, A.J. and Gibson, J.K.
(2000). The ERA-40 Project Plan.
ERA-40 Project Report Series No.
1.
Windstats (2001, 2002). “Component
failure and production data
summary tables,” Windstats
Newsletter, 14 and 15.
71
Impact of Climate Change on UK Air Transport
Project leader: Dr Robert Noland, Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College London
Project research partners: Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College London
Project website: www.cts.cv.ic.ac.uk/html/ResearchActivities/projectDetails.asp?ProjectID=325
Rapid growth in air travel has ensured
that aviation remains a significant and
growing contributor to climate change
despite technological advances that
continue to improve efficiency and
reduce emissions as new aircraft are
introduced. Aviation impacts occur not
only from emissions of carbon dioxide
(CO2), but also from other emissions
such as oxides of nitrogen which can
increase ozone and reduce methane.
As clouds play an important role in
climate, the formation of contrails is
also a contributor, especially those
that spread to form large cirrus
clouds.
The environmental and economic
costs associated with the impact of
aviation on climate are significant.
Global warming due to CO2
emissions from passenger aircraft
alone is estimated to be £1.4 billion
in the UK in 2000. Unless air traffic
is constrained, the projected cost
for 2030 is over £4 billion per year
(Department for Transport, 2003).
In addition, air transport is an industry
exposed to changes in weather,
with extreme weather events able to
cause severe system disruption and
delays.
This project was unusual in the BKCC
portfolio in that it aimed to examine
the contribution of aviation to climate
change as well as examining the
impact of climate on aviation.
72
Aim
To identify the possible impacts of
climate change for UK aviation and
the feedback mechanisms involved.
Objectives
• Estimate UK CO2 emissions from
aviation using air traffic data.
• Examine the impact of the future
wind field on CO2 emissions by
aircraft.
• Determine the impact of changes
in severe weather patterns on the
operation of current and proposed
airports.
• Conduct probability analysis
of severe weather events and
estimated impact on UK air
transport.
Estimation of UK CO2
emissions from aviation using
air traffic data
CO2 pollution is one of the main
causes of climate change and air
transport is the fastest growing
source. CO2 is theoretically an easily
accessible indicator of environmental
performance of a flight. Emissions to
the atmosphere are proportional to
fuel consumption and their impacts
are independent of the location or
time of emission.
Under the Kyoto Protocol (1997)
anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions have to be attributed to
individual countries in order to set
targets and monitor performance.
Currently, countries only have
to include domestic air traffic
in calculations of total national
emissions (UNFCCC, 1998). In the
context of national progress towards
Kyoto targets, it is important to have
a clear understanding of the total
contribution of aviation, not just
domestic flights, to ensure policy
priorities can be fully assessed.
Several different air transport CO2
emission estimates have been
provided for the UK, for example,
National Environmental Technology
Centre (NETCEN) and South East
and East of England Regional Air
Services Study (SERASS).
Methodology
Allocation of anthropogenic
greenhouse gases to individual
countries for air traffic is difficult
and several approaches have been
proposed. This project used the
Flight Schedule Approach as it best
corresponds with the other two UK
CO2 estimations (NETCEN and
SERAS) and is based on real air
traffic data.
Approaches for allocation of
anthropogenic greenhouse
gases for air traffic
Territorial Approach: All emissions
from flights over the national territory
are considered, including flights
which only cross a country. Flights
over international territories (e.g.
oceans) are not recorded by this
method.
Sales Approach: Import, production
and export of kerosene in a
country is registered. However,
due to “economical tankage”
(carrying more fuel than required
for a journey to avoid refuelling
in locations with higher fuel cost),
kerosene consumption by aircraft
can be underestimated in the official
statistics.
Flight Schedule Approach: All flights
and resulting fuel consumption
originating from a country are
calculated based on the schedule of
air traffic movements.
National Airline Approach: Only the
air traffic of nationally registered
airlines is added to the total
international air traffic by a country.
Analysis of fuel burn and hence
CO2 emissions was calculated using
the Reorganised Air Traffic Control
Mathematical Simulator (RAMS) and
the Advanced Emissions Model (AEM
III). Simulations were conducted
using traffic, route network and sector
data provided by National Air Traffic
Services in the UK (UATS). A 24-
hour air traffic sample for Friday 3rd
September 2004 was used with 7074
flights each with specified departure
and destination airports and
simulation entry times in UK airspace.
Emissions are attributed to different
modes of the flight, with each using
fuel at different rates. Emissions
occur during: the Landing and Take
Off cycle and the Climb, Cruise and
Descent cycle (Figure 49).
Key results: UK CO2 emission
estimate
Summing the emissions from all
simulated flights it was possible to
derive a value for total CO2 emissions
for the given day. The whole UK
traffic sample is divided into three
categories: domestic, UK departures
to the EU and UK departures to other
international airports. All other traffic
such as fly-over flights and arrivals in
the UK are omitted. Therefore, only
55% of the UK’s total daily traffic is
used as a basis for estimation of the
CO2 emissions inventory (Figure 50).
The day’s emissions total was
multiplied by 30 to gain a monthly
total for September. September was
then used as a reference month and
using Civil Aviation Authority (CAA)
statistics of air transport monthly
movements in 2004, it was possible
to calculate the annual cycle of UK
CO2 emissions (see Table 3).
The estimated 2004 annual cycle of
UK’s CO2 emissions from aircraft,
shows international departure flights
as the largest polluter. Both EU and
international departures have similar
annual cycles, with higher emissions
occurring during the vacation period.
CO2 emissions from domestic traffic
are uniform during the year.
de
cruise
sc
en
t
b
3000 feet
m (ca. 1000m)
cli
landing
LTO cycle
taxi-in
take-off
taxi-out
Figure 49 Flight phases of an aircraft
flights in flights in
traffic sample CO2 emissions estimate
11.33%
22.78%
11.18%
55.19% 21.11%
22.30%
11.30%
EU arrivals EU departures
international arrivals international departures
fly over domestic
Figure 50 Breakdown of air traffic sample by flight category
Further analysis calculated which
2004 UK CO2 CO2 (Mt/day) flights and associated aircraft account
Emissions Estimate
for the bulk emissions of CO2. 6.23%
(243 flights) of the most polluting
Domestic 2.89 flights account for 50% of the total
CO2 emitted (Figure 51).
EU Dep. 8.39
Differences in CO2 emissions from
Int. Dep. 23.41 aircraft size (6 classes) are clearly
reflected with larger aircraft emitting
Total 34.68 more CO2 per kilometre. For medium
haul flights, each aircraft group shows
Table 3 UK CO2 emissions in 2004 a reduction in CO2 per kilometre
for longer routes; emissions per
kilometre are more than doubled for
very short haul routes (Figure 52).
Results of CO2 emissions from this
study compare well with those made
for the UK by the SERAS study and
NETCEN estimate (Table 4). Their
figures for 2000 are 26.1 Mt and
31 Mt respectively. A more recent
NETCEN estimate for 2003 is 34.1
Mt of CO2. This work, using more
detailed simulations and real air traffic
survey data is 34.7 Mt for 2004.
73
 0.12 CO2 (kg) 4500 Implications for policy and
number of flights 4000 practice
0.10
3500 Results from the assessment of CO2
CO2 emissions (Mt)

Number of flights
0.08
emissions from UK aviation indicate
3000
that by using real traffic profiles
2500 with a Flight Schedule Approach
0.06
2000 and applying different emissions
for different modes of flights, it is
0.04 1500
possible to calculate a CO2 emissions
1000 inventory comparable to other UK
0.02
500 estimates. The approach allows
243 better desegration of domestic
0 0 and international flights and their
0.4 50 70 80 90 100
emissions. Disaggregation of the
CO2 emissions - percent of daily total emissions into aircraft groups and
route profiles can aid analysis of
Figure 51 Most polluting flights – daily traffic
various policy effects. In addition
understanding the total contribution
120 of aviation, not just domestic flights
short haul medium haul long haul
can ensure policy priorities are
fairly assessed. A small proportion
100 heavy of international departures can
CO2 (kg per km)

l_med consume a large amount of the

80
60
40
20
0 1
Figure 52 CO2 emitted per aircraft km (in 1000)
Type of traffic SERAS NETCEN This analysis (2004)
Domestic 1.5 2.9 2.9
International 24.6 28.5 31.8
Total 26.1 31.4 34.7
Table 4 Aviation related CO2 emissions, year 2000 (million tonnes)
Severe weather delay analysis
This research addressed the close
connection between air traffic delays
and weather conditions. This analysis
represented an overview of the
delay situation in the UK, caused
by weather, for the period starting
January 2001 and ending May
2006. The focus of the study was
London’s Heathrow airport, which
accounts for more than 20% of the
UK’s air traffic movements. Traffic
disruptions at Heathrow airport can
have a huge impact on the overall air
traffic in Europe and North Atlantic
2 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 9
range of flight
corridor. This analysis found that
more than 90 percent of total delay
minutes are connected to the airport
location, rather than en-route weather
conditions, indicating that the weather
impact is strongest during take-
off and landing. Strong winds are
identified as the most frequent cause
of weather restrictions at Heathrow.
Further analysis is underway to
assess the impacts of severe system
disruption due to extreme weather by
considering the delays and diversions
associated with short airport closure.
light
small national allowance of emissions.
u_med This has implications for how
the associated CO2 emissions
of international aviation can be
brought within national targets
for emissions reduction. Further
analysis of weather-related delays
will be completed to identify the
10 11 12
possible vulnerabilities of UK air
traffic operations to changes in the
frequency and severity of extreme
weather events associated with
climate change.
References
Department for Transport (2003).
Aviation and the environment:
using economic instruments. www.
hmtreasury.gov.uk/document/
taxation_work_and _welfare/
tax_and_the_environment/aviation/
tax_avi_index.cfm
Pejovic, T., Noland, R.B., Williams, V.
and Toumi, R. (2007). Estimates of
UK CO2 emissions from aviation
using air traffic data. Submitted to
Climatic Change.
UNFCCC (1998). Kyoto Protocol to
the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change.
http://unfcc.int/resource/docs/
convkp/conveng.pdf

74
Challenges and research questions for the future
The BKCC programme has made considerable progress in understanding the potential impacts of climate change
upon infrastructure, the built environment and utilities. New assessment tools have been developed, demonstrated
and disseminated to industry and policy makers. New insights into the potential impacts of climate change have been
provided. Yet the science of climate change is rapidly advancing and the challenges of adaptation to climate change
across a host of sectors are only beginning to be understood.
A number of research challenges already stand out as requiring more work beyond what was possible in BKCC.
The representation of uncertainty and use of probabilistic scenarios as a basis for adaptation
decisions
Rapid advances are being made in the representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios. In 2008 UKCIP will
publish its “UK 21st Century Climate Scenarios” or UKCIP08 for short, which promise to be groundbreaking
in their representation of climate uncertainties. UKCIP08 will provide statistical distributions to represent
uncertainties in key climate projects. Work in the CRANIUM project has begun to explore the use of probabilistic
scenarios and methods for analysing the implications of climate uncertainties. Further research is required to
understand how probabilistic climate scenarios can be used in practice for planning, design and management of
the built environment and infrastructure systems. Climate change uncertainties need to be considered alongside
other uncertainties associated with system response and long term change. Further research will need to examine
the joint use of climate scenarios alongside projections of other changes and uncertainties of significance to the
built environment.
Assessment of adaptation options that may be applied across a range of sectors in the built
environment and infrastructure systems
Climate change will have a multitude of potential impacts. Well designed adaptation can deal with several impacts
at the same time. For example, smart use of green spaces in urban areas can help to reduce the temperature
in urban areas and also reduce the runoff from intense rainfall. The ASCCUE project began to look at such
interactions and demonstrated the complexity of integrated assessments. Research within the Tyndall Centre is
now developing integrated assessment facilities, working at the scale of large cities. Further research is required
to understand the inter-relationships between adaptation options, to evaluate their combined impacts and to
identify any potential conflicts.
Integrating adaptation with measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
There are a number of areas in the built environment where strategies for adaptation to climate change might
have an adverse effect on greenhouse gas emissions and hence mitigation efforts - for instance, if energy-
intensive air conditioning is installed to cope with higher temperatures. Many of the materials and engineering
solutions for adaptation may have significant energy implications. On the other hand some greenhouse gas
reduction measures might increase vulnerability to climate impacts, for example cavity wall insulation, which is a
maladaptation to flood risk. The built environment is a focal point for consideration of adaptation and mitigation
in an integrated fashion, yet tools are required to help planners and designers to understand the complex
interactions and trade-offs between these two aspects of climate change.
Costing climate impacts and adaptation
Wise decisions regarding adaptation to climate change require careful consideration of the costs of adaptation and
the economic consequences of climate impacts. This type of economic knowledge is patchy. Information on costs
and economic impacts will inevitably contain considerable uncertainties, so methods for cost-benefit analysis that
account for these uncertainties and can identify solutions that are robust to uncertainties are required. Costing and
appraisal tools need to be customised for particular sectors and recognised by clients and regulators.
Adaptation of the built environment
Within the BKCC programme it was possible to examine the majority of sectors in infrastructure and the built
environment. Adaptation of new and existing building stock to climate change remains premier research
challenge. Joint work with industry has the potential to develop new holistic approaches to building design and
renovation that are well adapted to climate change.
The SKCC project is cultivating the researcher and stakeholder community brought together in BKCC, exploring and
developing new ways in which science and engineering can contribute to adaptation to climate change across sectors.
Sustaining stakeholder engagement is pivotal to realising a well adapted UK, aware of the impact and benefits of
adaptation actions across the borders of sectors and disciplines.
The SKCC project will be consulting with industry and researchers in order to develop proposals for a major new
industry-led research initiative to further progress the science and engineering of adaptation to climate change for
infrastructure, the built environment and utilities. This will involve stakeholder workshops in London and Edinburgh during
2007 and a series of meetings between researchers and stakeholders. Visit http://www.k4cc.org/ and subscribe to the
email list to be kept up to date about these meetings.

75
List of contacts

ASCCUE EHF
Professor John Handley Professor May Cassar
School of Environment and Development Centre for Sustainable Heritage
University of Manchester University College London
University of Manchester Gower Street
Oxford Road London
Manchester WC1E 6BT
M13 9PL tel: +44(0)20 7679 1780
tel: +44(0)161 275 6891 email: m.cassar@ucl.ac.uk
email: john.handley@manchester.ac.uk
GENESIS
AUDACIOUS Dr Simon Watson
John Blanksby Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology
Department of Civil and Structural Engineering Loughborough University
University of Sheffield Loughborough
Mappin Street LE11 3TU
Sheffield tel: +44(0)1509 227 033
S1 3JD email: s.j.watson@lboro.ac.uk
tel: +44(0)114 222 5768
email: j.blanksby@shef.ac.uk Impact of Climate Change on UK Air Transport
Dr Robert Noland
BESEECH Centre for Transport Studies
Professor Paul Ekins Imperial College London
Policy Studies Institute London
50 Hanson Street SW7 2AZ
London tel: +44(0)20 7594 6036
W1W 6UP email: r.noland@imperial.ac.uk
tel: +44(0)20 7911 7500
email: p.ekins@psi.org.uk UKCIP
Roger Street
BETWIXT UK Climate Impacts Programme
Dr Clare Goodess Oxford University Centre for the Environment
Climatic Research Unit Dyson Perrins Building
School of Environmental Sciences South Parks Road
University of East Anglia Oxford
Norwich OX1 3QY
tel: +44(0)1603 592875 tel: +44 (0)1865 285717
email: c.g.goodess@uea.ac.uk email: roger.street@ukcip.org.uk

BIONICS EPSRC
Dr Stephanie Glendinning Michelle Lascelles
School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Engineering and Physical Research Council
Newcastle University Polaris House
Newcastle upon Tyne North Star Avenue
NE1 7RU Swindon
tel: +44(0)191 222 6612 SN2 1ET
email: stephanie.glendinning@ncl.ac.uk tel: +44(0)1793 44 4134
email: michelle.lascelles@epsrc.ac.uk
CRANIUM
Professor Jim Hall
School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences
Newcastle University
Newcastle upon Tyne
NE1 7RU
tel: +44(0)191 222 3660
email: jim.hall@ncl.ac.uk

76
ISBN 978-07017-0213-7