Economic, Social and Demographic Thought in the XIXth Century

Yves Charbit

Economic, Social and Demographic Thought in the XIXth Century

The Population Debate from Malthus to Marx

123

Prof. Yves Charbit Universit e Paris Descartes UMR CEPED (Universit e Paris Descartes-INED-IRD) 75006 Paris France

ISBN 978-1-4020-9959-5 DOI 10.1007/978-1-4020-9960-1

e-ISBN 978-1-4020-9960-1

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For V eronique

Contents

1 The Population Controversy and Beyond . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Theoretical Progress and Afliations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Demographic Theory and Economic Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Demographic Doctrines and Ideology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Interpreting Theories and Doctrines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Population, Economic Growth and Religion: Malthus as a Populationist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Central Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The First Model: Regulation by Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The First Model: Scandinavian Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Reform of the Poor Laws in England . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Second Model: The Demo-Economics of Fertility and Nuptiality . . . . The Agricultural Employment Market and Demographic Growth . . . The Law of Diminishing Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Third Model: Effective Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Production and Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Short-Term Demographic Responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Effective Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . England in Malthuss Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A Comprehensive Model for Maximising Demo-Economic Growth . . . . . . Social Doctrine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Industry and Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Malthus the Populationist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Moral Restraint, the Principle of Population and Demo-Economic Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Religion and Economics in the Concepts of 1798 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Contradictions and Unity in Malthuss Writings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 2 4 5 6

9 13 15 16 17 20 20 21 23 23 25 25 27 31 32 33 37 38 42 46

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3 From Malthusianism to Populationism: The French Liberal Economists (18401870) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Economists as a Sect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A Double Paradox . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The 1856 Census: Demographic Crisis and Economic Prosperity . . . The 1866 Census: The Decreasing Fertility and International Outlook Poverty of the Working Class and the Dangers of the Revolution . . . . . . . . Industrialisation and Its Demographic Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Responses to the Problem of Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Second Empire: Social Peace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Peasants: Small Holdings and Rural Exodus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Urban Working Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Towards Populationism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The New Socialism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Demographic Conditions: Infant Mortality and Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . Military Problems and Pacism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Emigration and Colonies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . From Anti-colonialism to Colonialism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Emigration and Colonisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Malthusianism and the Bourgeois Ideology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Annex: The Causes of the Rural Exodus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

51 51 53 54 55 57 58 60 62 64 69 75 76 77 79 80 81 81 83 87

4 The Malthusian Trap: The Failure of Proudhon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 A Thinker Who Cannot Be Classied . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 The Two Progressions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 The Early Carnets: To Be or Not to Be a Malthusian? . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Population Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Does Production Really Increase in Geometrical Progression? . . . . . 100 Economics and Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 The Demand for Labour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 The Right to Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Emigration, Colonisation and Economic Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Industrialisation and Free Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Moral Philosophy and Social Criticism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 Philosophy and Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 Progress and Providence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 The Proudhonian Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Against Fertility Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Fertility and Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 Malthusian Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 The Limitations of Proudhons Ideology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 The Misuse of Metaphysics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

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5 Capitalism and Population: Marx and Engels Against Malthus . . . . . . 121 An Ambivalent Hostility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 The Poverty of the Working Classes and the Poor Laws . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 The Epistemological Break of 1845 and Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 Applying the Method of Political Economy to Population . . . . . . . . . 128 From Engels to Marx: Analysing the Crises of Capitalism . . . . . . . . . 130 The Accumulation of Capital and Its Organic Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 Marxs Primitive Accumulation Versus Malthuss Effective Demand . . . . . 136 The Effective Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 Primitive Accumulation in the History of Capitalism . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 Capitalisms Population Law: The Industrial Reserve Army . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Creation and Development of the Reserve Army . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 Conditions for the Working of the Population Law of Capitalism . . . 144 The Actual Working of the Population Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 Increasing the Industrial Reserve Army . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 The International Dimension of Capitalism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 Challenging the Theory on the Basis of Demographic Facts . . . . . . . . 150 Demography and the Evolution of Capitalism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 Annex: The Althusserian School and Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 The Epistemological Status of Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 Three Key Theoretical Points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 6 Beneath Demographic Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Wealth and Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 Demographic Behaviour and Bourgeois Universalism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 The State and the Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 Theorising Versus Historicising . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183