Confidence Intervals

What happens to your confidence as the interval gets smaller?

- The larger your confidence, the wider the interval.
Point Estimate
- Use a single statistic based on sample data to estimate a population parameter
- Simplest approach
- But not always very precise due to variation in the sampling distribution
Confidence intervals
- Are used to estimate the unknown population mean
- Formula:
o estimate + margin of error
Margin of error
- Shows how accurate we believe our estimate is
- The smaller the margin of error, the more precise our estimate of the true parameter
- Formula:

Confidence Level
- Is the success rate of the method used to construct the interval
- Using this method, ____% of the time the intervals constructed will contain the true population
parameter
Critical value (z*)
- Found from the confidence level
- The upper z-score with probability p lying to its right under the standard normal curve
- Confidence level tail area z*
90% .05 1.645
95% .025 1.96
99% .005 2.576






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statistic the of
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Steps for doing a confidence interval:
1) Assumptions
SRS from population
Sampling distribution is normal (or approximately normal)
Given (normal)
Large sample size (approximately normal)
Graph data (approximately normal)
s is known
2) Calculate the interval
3) Write a statement about the interval in the context of the problem.
Statement: (memorize!!)
- We are ________% confident that the true mean context lies within the interval ______
and ______.
A test for the level of potassium in the blood is not perfectly precise. Suppose that repeated
measurements for the same person on different days vary normally with s = 0.2. A random sample of
three has a mean of 3.2.
- What is a 90% confidence interval for the mean potassium level?
o Assumptions:
Have an SRS of blood measurements
Potassium level is normally distributed (given)
s known


- We are 90% confident that the true mean potassium level is
between 3.01 and 3.39.
- 95% confidence interval?
o Assumptions:
Have an SRS of blood measurements
level is normally distributed (given)
s known

- We are 95% confident that the true mean potassium level is
between 2.97 and 3.43.
- 99% confidence interval?
o Assumptions:
Have an SRS of blood measurements
Potassium level is normally distributed (given)
s known


- We are 99% confident that the true mean potassium level is
between 2.90 and 3.50.
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( ) 4974 . 3 , 9026 . 2
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576 . 2 2 . 3 = |
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What happens to the interval as the confidence level increases?

- The interval gets wider as the confidence level increases
How can you make the margin of error smaller?
- z* smaller
(Lower confidence level)
- s smaller
(Less variation in the population)
- n larger
(To cut the margin of error in half, n must be 4 times as big)
Find a sample size:
If a certain margin of error is wanted, then to find the sample size necessary for that margin of
error use: (Ask Labelle For Formula)

Always round up to the nearest person!
Students t- distribution
Developed by William Gosset
Continuous distribution
Unimodal, symmetrical, bell-shaped density curve
Above the horizontal axis
Area under the curve equals 1
Based on degrees of freedom
How does t compare to normal?
Shorter & more spread out
More area under the tails
As n increases, t-distributions become more like a standard normal distribution
How to find t*
Use Table B for t distributions
Look up confidence level at bottom & df on the sides
df = n 1
Formula:
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n
s
t x * : Interval Confidence
Assumptions for t-interval
Have an SRS from population
s unknown
Normal distribution
Given
Large sample size
Check graph of data
Robust
An inference procedure is ROBUST if the confidence level or p-value doesnt change much if the
assumptions are violated.
t-procedures can be used with some skewness, as long as there are no outliers.
Larger n can have more skewness.
Some Cautions:
The data MUST be a SRS from the population
The formula is not correct for more complex sampling designs, i.e., stratified, etc.
No way to correct for bias in data
Cautions continued:
Outliers can have a large effect on confidence interval
Must know s to do a z-interval which is unrealistic in practice