ENGINEERING PROBABILITY SET THEORY Definition: A set is a collection of well-defined objects, called elements. Example 1.

1 The following are examples of sets: a. The months of the year that begins with letter J b. The set of engineering drawing instruments c. The set of !A teams in this year"s !A series #ames of set are designated by using capital letters such as A, !, $. To indicate that an element belongs to a gi%en set, the symbol epsilon is used and the epsilon for an element that does not belong to the set. Example 1.& 'rite the following statements in mathematical symbol. a. () is an element of the set *+ Answer: ) * b. ( 1 is not an element of the set *+ Answer: 1 *. Methods of Describing A Set ,ne way of writing a set is by listing its elements, separating them by commas, and including this listing within a pair of braces, - .. This way of representing a set is called the listing or roster method. Example 1./ 0escribe the gi%en sets by roster method. a. 1f A is the set of the days of the wee2 that begin with the letter *, then we describe A using roster method by A 3 - *aturday, *unday . b. 1f ! is the set of letters in the word love, then ! 3 - l, o, %, e . c. 4sing set notation, write the set of digits that ma2e up the telephone number for information, 5166157 Answer: - 7, 1, 6, 5 . #ote that when we form a set, the elements within the set are ne%er repeated and the elements can appear in any order. Example 1.) -x 8 x is a natural number between & and 17. 9read ( the set of all element x such that x is a natural number between & and 17+: defines the set - /, ), 6, ;, 5, <, = ..

The notation -x 8 x is a natural number between & and 17. is an example of writing the set in set-builder notation. Kinds Of Sets A set A is said to be a subset of another set ! if e%ery element of A is also an element of !. 1n symbol, A !. Example 1.6 >i%en the sets A 3 - 1, &, / ., ! 3 - 1, &, /, ), 6, ;, 5 ., ? 3 - /, 6, 5 . 0etermine if the following statements are true or false. a. A ! Ans. True b A ? Ans. @alse c. ? ! Ans. True The totality of elements under consideration as the elements of any set is the universal set. 'e denote the uni%ersal set by the symbol U. Operations On Sets The union of sets A and !, denoted by A !, is defined as the set whose elements are in A or in ! or in both A and !. 1n symbol, A ! 3 - x 8 x A or x ! . Example 1.; >i%en the following sets: A 3 - x 8 x is a positi%e e%en integer less than 17 . ! 3 - 1, /, 6, 5 . The set A ! 3 - &, ), ;, < . - 1, /, 6, 5 . 3 -1, &, /, ), 6, ;, 5, <. The intersection of A and !, denoted by A B , is defined as the set whose elements are common to both. 1n symbol, A B 3 - x 8 x A and x ! .. Example 1.; >i%en the following sets: A 3 - 1, &, / ., ! 3 - &, /, ), 6 ., ? 3 - ), 6 . @ind: a. A B Ans. -&, /. b. B C Ans. -), 6. Venn Diagram A pictorial representation of relations and operations on sets is called a Venn diagram. 1t usually shows a rectangle 9which represents the universal set: that includes circles depicting the subsets.

Example: A sur%ey of 177 students in a particular high school revealed the following information about their enrollment in Aathematics, Bistory, and ilipino : &; ta2e Aathematics ;6 ta2e Bistory ;6 ta2e ilipino 1) ta2e Aathematics and Bistory 1/ ta2e Aathematics and ilipino )7 ta2e Bistory and ilipino < ta2e Aathematics, Bistory and ilipino 9a: Bow many students ta2e Aathematics as their only subjectC 9b: Bow many students did not ta2e any of the three subjectsC 9c: Bow many students were ta2ing Aathematics and Bistory but not ilipinoC *olution:

Deferring to the Eenn diagram abo%e, 9a: n1 3 &; F 96 G < G ;: 3 5 9b: n& 3 177 F 95 G &7 G1= G 6 G/& G ; G <: 3 / 9c: n/ 3 1) F < 3 ; PERMUTATIONS AN !OM"INATIONS

Fundamental Counting rinciple: 1f an e%ent can happen in any one of p ways and if when this has occurred, another e%ent can happen in any one of q ways, then the number of ways in which both e%ents can happen in a specified order is pq. Example: 1f in climbing a certain mountain, there are 6 trails that could be followed in going to the top and ) trails in going down, in how many ways can the trip be doneC Solution: *ince n1 3 6 and n& 3 ), there are 69): 3 &7 ways in which such trip can be done.

ermutations: An arrangement of objects in a definite order is called a permutation of the objects. This counting techniHue is usually applied to problems about digits, filling distinct positions and seating arrangements. Example: Ta2en / at a time, the letters A, !, ? has six permutations, namely A!? A?! !A? !?A ?A! ?!A. Ta2en two at a time, it has also six permutations, namely A! A? !A !? ?A ?!. The number of permutations of
n

n things ta2en r at time is gi%en by

n! (n r )!

Pr or P (n, r ) = n(n 1)( n 2) to r factors =

Example: 1n how many ways can the 6 starting positions on a !A team be filled with 1& men who can play any of the positionsC Solution: @or n 3 1& and r 3 6, the preceding formula on permutation yields
12

P5 =

12! = 95,040 ways (12 5)!

-0The number of permutations of n distinct objects ta2en n at a time is nI, i.e.

n

Pn = P (n, n) = n! = n(n 1)(n 2) 3 2 1

Example: 1n how many ways can four boo2s 9Aath, Jnglish, Bistory and *cience: be arranged on a shelfC Solution: 4sing n n with n 3 ), we ha%e 3 )I 3 &) ways. Permutation with Alike Things: The number of permutations of n objects ta2en altogether where r 1 are of one 2ind, r& are of the other 2ind and so on is gi%en by
n

Pn =

n! r1 ! r2 ! rk !

Example: The number of ways of arranging the word B1K1

11 ! =1,108,800 ways 11 P 11 = 3! 3!

1#J* is

Circular Permutations: To find the number of ways of arranging n different objects in a circle, we first select a position for one of the objects. Then the others can be placed in their positions in 9n F 1:I ways. The number of circular permutations of n objects ta2en altogether is
n 1

Pn 1 = ( n 1)!

Example: 1n how many ways can 5 different trees be planted in a circleC Solution: *ince n 3 5, there are 95-1:I 3 ;I 3 5&7 ways of planting the 5 trees in a circle. Combinations:

A combination is a selection of objects with no attention gi%en to the order of arrangements. This counting techniHue is usually applied to problems about groups, committees or collections where order of the elements is not important. The number of combinations of n objects ta2en r at a time is gi%en by
n

C r or C ( n, r ) =

n! ( n r )!r!

Example: 1n a dec2 of 6& cards, in how many ways can we select 6 heartsC Solution: The number of ways of selecting 6 hearts out of 1/ heart cards is
13

C5 =

13! =1,287 ways (13 5)!5!

Combination in a Series: The total number of combinations of n things ta2en 1, &, /, . . . . . ., n at a time is
n

C1 + n C 2 + n C 3 + ......+ n C n = 2 n 1

Example: A boy has 6 coins each of a different denomination. Bow many different sums of money can he formC Solution:
5

C1 +5 C 2 + 5 C 3 + 5 C 4 +5 C 5 = 2 5 1 = 31

!O"A"#$#%& The sample space * for an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of the experiment. Any subset of a sample space is called an event. 1f A is a subset of *, then the probability of the occurrence of e%ent A is eHual to the number of possible ways in which e%ent A can occur, i.e. n9A: di%ided by the number of possible outcomes of the experiment, i.e. n9*:.
P ( A) = n( A) n( S )

1f A" is the e%ent that A will not occur, then

P ( A' ) = n( A' ) = 1 P ( A) n( S ) P ( A) + P ( A' ) = 1

i.e.

Example: 1n a family of & children, what is the probability of ha%ing exactly one boyC Solution: To answer this problem, the total number of outcomes must be listed first. This is the fundamental sample space *. * 3 -!1!&, !1>&, >1!&, >1>&. There are ) possible outcomes of which only two contain exactly 1 boy. Therefore if A is the e%ent of ha%ing exactly one boy, then A 3 - !1>&, >1!&.
P ( A) = n( A) 2 1 = = n( S ) 4 2

Conditional Probability: ?onditional probability is the probability that a second e%ent will occur if the first e%ent already happened. *ymbolically, conditional probability is written as 9A8!: and is read as the probability of e%ent A gi%en that e%ent ! has occurred. The computing formula is gi%en by 9A8!: 3
P ( A B ) n( A B ) = P( B) n( B )

where 9AL!: is the probability that both e%ents A and ! will occur. Example: A card is drawn from a dec2 of 6& playing cards. >i%en that the card drawn is a face card, then what is the probability of getting a 2ingC *olution: Ket A be the e%ent of getting a face card and ! the e%ent of getting a 2ing. Thus 9A8!: 3 Mutually Exclusive Events: Two e%ents are mutuall# e$%lusive if they can not occur at the same time. Ket A and ! be mutually exclusi%e e%ents. Then 9A !: 3 9A: G 9!: where 9A !: is the probability that e%ent A or ! will occur. 1f e%ents A and ! are not mutually exclusi%e, then 9A !: 3 9A: G 9!: F 9AL!: ndependent and !ependent Events: Two e%ents A and ! are said to be inde&endent if the occurrence of an e%ent A does not affect the occurrence of e%ent !. ,therwise, the e%ents are said to be dependent. An example of independent e%ents A and ! is when drawing a ball 9A: from an urn and after replacing the first, a second ball is drawn 9!:. An example of dependent e%ents A and ! is when drawing the first ball 9A:, a second ball is drawn 9!: without replacement of the first. @or independent e%ents A and !, 1f e%ent ! depends on e%ent A,
P( A B ) = P ( A) P ( B A)

n( B A) 4 1 = = n( B ) 12 3

P ( A B ) = P ( A) P ( B )

Probabilities in "epeated Trials:

1f p is the probability that an e%ent will occur in a single trial of an experiment and H is the probability the e%ent will fail to occur, then the probability that these e%ents will occur exactly r times in n trials is
n

C r p r q n r

Expectation: 1f p is the probability of the occurrence of an e%ent in a single trial, then the expected number of occurrences or expectation of that e%ent in n trials is defined as np. 1f p is the probability that a person will win m pesos, his expectation is defined as mp. 1t is the a%erage amount that he would expect to win in the long run.

Review Exercises in Engineering Probability 1. A certain ec!anica" #art $% a ac!ine can &e 'e%ective &eca(se it !as $ne $r $re $(t $% t!ree #$ssi&"e 'e%ects) ins(%%icient tensi"e stren*t!, a &(rr $r a 'ia eter $(tsi'e $% t$"erance "i its. +n a "$t $% 500 #ieces 19 !ave tensi"e stren*t! 'e%ect, 17 !ave a &(rr,

11 !ave an (nacce#ta&"e 'ia eter, 12 !ave tensi"e stren*t! an' &(rr 'e%ects, 7 !ave tensi"e stren*t! an' 'ia eter 'e%ects, 5 !ave &(rr an' 'ia eter 'e%ects, 2 !ave a"" t!ree 'e%ects. (a) ,$w an- !ave n$ 'e%ects. (&) ,$w an- #ieces !ave $n"- &(rr 'e%ects. (c) ,$w an- #ieces !ave exact"- tw$ 'e%ects. 2. 3. 4. 5. :. ,$w ,$w an- #er (tati$ns can &e %$r e' %r$ t!e "etters $% t!e w$r' /01234+454+126. 1 t$ 9.

an- %$(r-#"ace n( &ers can &e %$r e' (sin* t!e 'i*its %r$

7in' n i% 8(n, 3) 9 : 0(n, 5). ,$w an- n( &ers $% 5 'i%%erent 'i*its, eac! n( &er t$ c$ntain 3 $'' an' 2 even 'i*its, can &e %$r e' 1 t$ 9. A 'rawer c$ntains 10 w!ite &a""s an' : &"ac; &a""s. <!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- $% ran'$ "'rawin* 2 &"ac; &a""s. a. 0.15 &. 0.104 c. 0.125 '. 0.180 4w$ 'ice are r$""e'. 7in' t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at t!e s( $% t!e $(tc$ es is *reater t!an 10.

7.

8. 2ine tic;ets, n( &ere' 1 t$ 9, are in a &$x. +% tw$ tic;ets are 'rawn at ran'$ , 'eter ine t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at &$t! are $''. 9. A c$ ittee $% t!ree is t$ &e %$r e' %r$ a *r$(# $% 5 a'e at ran'$ , %in' t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at tw$ are en. en an' 4 w$ en. +% t!e se"ecti$n is

10. 4!ree &a""s are 'rawn %r$ a &$x c$ntainin* 5 re', 8 &"ac; an' 4 w!ite &a""s. =eter ine t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at a"" are w!ite. 11. A &a* c$ntains 9 &a""s n( &ere' 1 t$ 9. 4w$ &a""s are are 'rawn at ran'$ . 7in' t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at $ne is even an' t!e $t!er is $''. 12. ,$w an- cars can &e *iven "icense #"ates !avin* 5-'i*it n( &ers (sin* t!e 'i*its 1 t$ 5 wit! n$ 'i*it re#eate' in an- "icense #"ate. 13. A c$ ittee $% 4 is se"ecte' &- "$t %r$ a *r$(# $% : en an' 4 w$ en. <!at wi"" &e t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at it wi"" c$nsist $% exact"- 2 en an' w$ en. 14. 7r$ a &a* c$ntainin* 3 w!ite, 4 &"ac; an' 5 re' &a""s, a &a"" is 'rawn. 7in' t!e #r$&a&i"itt!at it is n$t re'.

15. 4!ere are %$(r &a""s $% 'i%%erent c$"$rs. 4w$ &a""s at a ti e are ta;en an' arran*e' an- wa-. ,$w an- s(c! c$ &inati$ns are #$ssi&"e. a. 3: &. 3 c. : '. 12

1:. A *ir" !as : &a*s, 11 'resses, an' 7 #airs $% s!$es. +n !$w (#. 17. ,$w an- si*na"s can a sc$(t are w!ite.

an- 'i%%erent wa-s can s!e 'ress

a;e $(t $% 9 &anners i% 3 &anners are re', 4 are &"(e, an' 2 an- 'i%%erent

18. A %a i"- $% %$(r enters an air#"ane w!ic! !as %i%teen avai"a&"e seats. +n !$w wa-s can t!e %a i"- &e seate'. 19. ,$w an- *r$(#s can &e

a'e $(t $% ei*!t &$-s i% t!e *r$(#s wi"" c$nsist $% 1 t$ 8 &$-s. t!e n( &ers 2,

20. Re#etiti$ns a""$we', %in' t!e n( &er $% c$ &inati$ns t!at can &e %$r e' %r$ 3, 5, 8, an' 9, i% eac! c$ &inati$n c$nsists $% %ive 'i*its. 21. A c$in is t$sse' twice. <!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at exact"- $ne !ea' $cc(rs.

22. A 'ie is t$sse'. <!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at t!e n( &er /56 s!$ws (# $r a n( &er "ess t!an :. 23. +% a car' is 'rawn %r$ an $r'inar- 'ec;, %in' t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at it is a !eart $r a 'ia $n'.

24. 4w$ c$ins are t$sse'. 7in' t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at t!e c$ins %a"" a"i;e an' t!e %irst c$in is a !ea'. 25. A &$x c$ntains tw$ -e""$w an' t!ree w!ite &a""s. 4w$ &a""s are 'rawn in s(ccessi$n wit!$(t re#"ace ents. <!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at &$t! are -e""$w. 2:. A &(i"'in* !as six $(tsi'e '$$rs. +n !$w &(i"'in* &- a 'i%%erent '$$r. an- wa-s can a #ers$n enter an' "eave t!e an- si*na"s

27. 7$(r 'i%%erent c$"$re' %"a*s can &e !(n* in a r$w t$ a;e a c$'e' si*na". ,$w can &e a'e i% a si*na" c$nsists $% t!e 'is#"a- $% tw$ $r $re %"a*s. a. :0 &. :2 c. :4 '. :: 28. +n !$w an- wa-s can seven 'i%%erent c$"$re' &ea's &e a'e int$ a &race"et.

29. A c"ass c$nsists $% 5 &$-s an' 7 *ir"s. (a) +n !$w an- wa-s can t!e c"ass e"ect t!e #resi'ent, t!e vice-#resi'ent an' t!e secretar-. (&) +n !$w an- wa-s can t!e c"ass e"ect 3 e &ers $% a certain c$ ittee. 30. +n !$w an- wa-s can a st('ent answer 5 $(t $% 8 >(esti$ns i% !e is re>(ire' t$ answer 3 $% t!e %irst 4 >(esti$ns. 31. A &a* c$ntains 3 w!ite, 7 &"ac;, 2 re' an' 9 *reen &a""s. +% $ne &a"" is 'rawn %r$ t!e &a*, w!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at it wi"" eit!er &e w!ite $r *reen. a. 4?7 &. 3?8 c. 1?7 '. n$ne $% t!ese 32. A st('ent is ta;in* tw$ exa s, $ne in 0a"c("(s an' an$t!er in 8!-sics. 4!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at !e wi"" #ass t!e 0a"c("(s exa is 0.75 an' t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at !e wi"" %ai" t!e 8!-sics exa is 0.20. 4!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at !e wi"" #ass &$t! exa s is 0.:5. <!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at !e wi"" #ass eit!er $% t!e exa s. 33. 7r$ a &a* c$ntainin* 4 &"ac; &a""s an' 5 w!ite &a""s, tw$ &a""s are 'rawn $ne at a ti e. 7in'

t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at &$t! &a""s are w!ite. Ass( e t!at t!e %irst &a"" is ret(rne' &e%$re t!e sec$n' &a"" is 'rawn. 34. A &a* c$ntains 3 w!ite an' 5 &"ac; &a""s. +% tw$ &a""s are 'rawn in s(ccessi$n wit!$(t re#"ace ent, w!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- t!at &$t! &a""s are &"ac;. 35. 4!e #r$&a&i"it- $% *ettin* !ea' $r tai" in t$ssin* a c$in is @. +% a c$in is t$sse' : ti es, w!at is t!e #r$&a&i"it- $% *ettin* exact"- 4 !ea's. a. 15?:4 &. 5?1: c. 1?8 '. n$ne $% t!ese

A23<ER3) 1. 475, 2, 18 2. 9,979,000 3. 3,024 4. 8 5. 7,200 :. c 7. 1?12 8. 5?18 9. 10?21 10. 1?170

11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 1:. 17. 18. 19. 20.

5?9 120 3?7 7?12 ' 4:2 12:0 32,7:0 255 3,125

21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 2:. 27. 28. 29. 30.

1?2 5?: @ A 1?10 30 a 720 1320, 220 24

31. 32. 33. 34. 35.

a 0.9 25?81 5?14 a