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Forecasting for S-2&3

Page: 1 2 3 (Next) Question 1 Marks: 1 Inaccurate de and forecasts can !ead to "ro#!e s suc$ as o%er-staffing and !ate de!i%eries& '$oose one ans(er& a& Fa!se b. True Question 2 Marks: 1 ) corre!ation coefficient of -1 i "!ies t$at '$oose one ans(er& a. one variable increases at the same rate that the other variable decreases #& #ot$ %aria#!es increase at exact!* t$e sa e rate c& #ot$ %aria#!es increase at t$e sa e rate d& t$e t(o %aria#!es $a%e no corre!ation e& #ot$ %aria#!es decrease at t$e sa e rate Question 3 Marks: 1 'ausa! forecasting atte "ts to forecast a "$eno enon+ and ex"!ain t$e causes of t$e "$eno enon& '$oose one ans(er& a& Fa!se #& True Question ,

Marks: 1 )n ex"onentia! forecasting '$oose one ans(er& a. False #& -rue Question . Marks: 1 'it* go%ern ent $as co!!ected t$e fo!!o(ing data on annua! sa!es tax co!!ections *es and ne( car registrations (x) et$od is a ti e-series forecasting et$od&

* x x* x S/& * S/&

1 10 10 100 1

1&, 12 11&2 1,,

1&31

1&3 1. 22&. 22. 3&11

2 11 32 2.1 ,

1&2 1, 2.&2 131 3&2,

2&1 14 3.&4 223 ,&,1

2&3 20 ,1 ,00 .&23 -ota! 12&. 10, 13,&2 1110 23&.1

'a!cu!ate t$e coefficient of corre!ation& '$oose one ans(er& a& 0&33

#& 0&3. c& 0.97 d& 0&33 Question 1 Marks: 1 ) con%enience store (ants to forecast next (eek5s de and for i!k& Sa!es for t$e "ast fi%e (eeks are s$o(n #e!o(& 6sing t$e cu u!ati%e a%erage forecasting ode!+ ($at are forecast sa!es for (eek 17

8eek t

)ctua! Sa!es 1 232 2 230 3 234 , 23. . 233

'$oose one ans(er& a& 235 #& 234 c& 233 d& 232 Question 4 Marks: 1 )n ice crea anufacturer ex"eriences $ig$er de and in t$e su er #ecause of $ig$ te "eratures and !o( de and in t$e (inter #ecause of co!d (eat$er& In a ti e series ode!+ t$ese f!uctuations (ou!d #e descri#ed as t$e 9999999999 co "onent of t$e forecasting "rocess& '$oose one ans(er& a& '*c!ica! co "onent #& Per anent co "onent c& :ando co "onent

d& -rend co "onent

e. Seasonal component Question 2 Marks: 1 If co "uting a causa! !inear regression ode! of ; < a = #> and t$e resu!tant r S/uare is %er* near ?ero+ t$en one (ou!d #e a#!e to conc!ude t$at '$oose one ans(er& a& ; #& none of t$e a#o%e c& a u!ti"!e !inear regression ode! is a good forecasting et$od for t$e data

d& a + bX is not a good orecasting method e& ; f& a u!ti"!e !inear regression ode! is not a good forecasting et$od et$od for t$e data

g& a = #> is a good forecasting Question 3 Marks: 1

'ausa! ode!s for statistica! forecasting assu e t$at t$e %a!ue of t$e de"endent %aria#!e is a function of t$e %a!ues of ot$er %aria#!es t$at are kno(a#!e in a ti e!* fas$ion& '$oose one ans(er& a. True #& Fa!se

Page: 1 2 3 ( Page: (Pre%ious) 1 2 3 (Next) Question 10 Marks: 1 8$ic$ of t$ese /ua!itati%e forecasting '$oose one ans(er& et$ods (ou!d #e "referred for ne( "roducts@ser%ices

a& $istorica! ana!og* and #& executi%e co

arket researc$ et$od

ittee consensus and Ae!"$i

c. surve! o sales orce and customers d& None of t$e a!ternati%es is correct Question 11 Marks: 1 -$e )B' 'o "an* ai!s /uestionnaires to a rando -$is is an exa "!e of ($at tec$ni/ue7 '$oose one ans(er& a& Cxecuti%e co #& Ae!"$i et$od ittee consensus sa "!e of $ouse$o!ds in t$eir co unit*&

c. mar"et research d& Focus grou" a""roac$ Question 12 Marks: 1 Forecast accurac* refers to '$oose one ans(er& a. ho# close orecasts come to actual data #& $o( "recise a forecast (i!! #e c& $ig$!* accurate forecasts d& !ong range forecasts Question 13 Marks: 1 Mike5s Bikes+ a s a!! #ic*c!e store+ (ants to forecast sa!es for Du!*& -$e sa!es for t$e first $a!f of t$e *ear are:

Mont$

Sa!es Dan 12 Fe# 1, Mar .4 )"r 1. Ma* 14 Dun 43

6sing t$e (eig$ted o%ing a%erage forecasting et$od (it$ t$e su -of-digits (eig$ting sc$e e at N < ,+ ($at are t$e forecast sa!es for Du!*7

'$oose one ans(er& a& 13&0 #& 12&0 c& 1.&4 d& 1.&. Question 1, Marks: 1 )n ex"onentia! s oot$ing '$oose one ans(er& a& is a!(a*s t$e ost effecti%e (eig$ting sc$e e& ode! $a%ing a !arge

#& is !ess res"onsi%e to recent de and& c& is not a ti e-series ode!&

d& "!aces e "$asis on t$e "ast de and data& e. is more responsive to recent demand changes. Question 1. Aeter ine t$e !east s/uares regression e/uation&

'$oose one ans(er& a& $0.%&+0.%3' #& -0&11=0&13x c& -0&13=0&11x d& -0&13=0&13> Question 11 Marks: 1 -$e "ur"ose of a tracking signa! is to $e!" us esti ate t$e forecast error at eac$ data "oint& '$oose one ans(er& a. True #& Fa!se Question 14 Marks: 1 -$e co "onent of ti e series ode!s t$at descri#es an* !ong-ter o%e ent o%er a "eriod of ti e is a '$oose one ans(er& a& '*c!ica! co "onent #& :ando co "onent u"(ard or do(n(ard

c& Seasona! co "onent d& Per anent co "onent

e. Trend component Question 12 Marks: 1 8$* are c*c!ic co "onents used rare!* in ti e series '$oose one ans(er& a& -$eir effects are irregu!ar+ #& -$e* are not i "ortant c& Their luctuations are represented alread! in the trend component d& -$e* re"resent !ong "eriods of ti e aking t$e $ard to re"resent ode!s7

Page: (Pre%ious) 1 2 3 (Next) Page: (Pre%ious) 1 2 3 Question 13 Marks: 1 Statistica! forecasting ode!s t$at forecast t$e future %a!ues of a %aria#!e using on!* "re%ious %a!ues of t$at %aria#!e are '$oose one ans(er& a& Ae and ode!s ode!s

#& )ssociati%e c& 'ausa!

ode!s

d. Time series models Question 20 Marks: 1 Qua!itati%e forecasting tec$ni/ues are a""ro"riate ($en '$oose one ans(er& a& Eitt!e or no $istorica! data exist #& -$e en%iron ent is sta#!e

c& (ll o the above d. -$e forecast $as a s$ort-ter Question 21 Marks: 1 )n Ita!ian restaurant (ants to forecast "e""eroni "i??a sa!es for Fcto#er& )ctua! sa!es and forecasts for t$e "ast 3 ont$s are s$o(n #e!o(& -$e o(ner "refers to use an ex"onentia! s oot$ing forecasting ode! (it$ G < 0&3& 8$at are t$e forecast sa!es for Fcto#er7 $ori?on

Mont$ )ctua! Sa!es Forecast (G < 0&3) Dune 210 202 Du!* 211 202&1 )ug 20, 210&22 Se"t& 212 202&44

'$oose one ans(er& a& 209.7) #& 212&34 c& 204&20 d& 211&23 Question 22 Marks: 1 -$e re!ations$i" #et(een H#H and HrH is '$oose one ans(er& a& their signs must be the same #& c& t$e su of t$eir %a!ues e/ua!s ?ero

d& -$ere is no re!ations$i" Question 23 Marks: 1 Frgani?ations use de and forecasts to "!an '$oose one ans(er& a& Faci!ities #& Materia!s c& Personne! d. (ll o the above Question 2, Marks: 1 -i e-series ode!s ena#!e t$e forecaster to inc!ude s"ecific re"resentations of %arious /ua!itati%e and /uantitati%e factors& '$oose one ans(er& a& Fa!se

b. True Question 2. Marks: 1 -o ake a forecast ($ic$ is accurate o%er ti e re/uires t$at (e co!!ect data o%er ti e&

'$oose one ans(er& a& -rue #& False

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