11/26/13

HARVARD UNIVERSITY JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT IGA-211/GOV 1796 CENTRAL CHALLENGES OF AMERICAN NATIONAL SECURITY, STRATEGY, AND THE PRESS GRAHAM ALLISON, DAVID E. SANGER, & DEREK REVERON
Course Assistants: Jessica Blankshain: (jblanksh@fas.harvard.edu) Paige Fitzgerald: (Paige_Fitzgerald@hks13.harvard.edu) Jonathan Hillman: (Jonathan_Hillman@hks14.harvard.edu) Esther Tetruashvily: (etetruashvily@fas.harvard.edu) Faculty Assistant: Courtney Anderson, Rm. B309 (courtney_anderson@hks.harvard.edu)

SYLLABUS FALL 2013

Description: Irans nuclear ambitions, the slaughter in Syrias civil war, the rise of China to super-power status, the risks of a nuclear 9/11 these are among the challenges to American national security that students will wrestle with this year. In each case, students are cast as a trusted National Security Council (NSC) staffer to President Obama, or to another principal in the policy-making process. Each case requires not only reexamining current U.S. strategy, but also identifying alternative strategies for protecting and advancing national interests. In this course, students wrestle with some of the hardest American national security challenges of the decade ahead. From the Arab revolutions and intervention in Syria to combating Irans nuclear ambitions and coping with the economic and military rise of China, students assignments require strategic thinking: analyzing dynamics of issues and developing strategies in the real world of Washington today. This requires clear thinking in the swirl of a government whose deliberations are discombobulated by leaks, internal differences among policymakers, and press analyses. Students are cast as participants of the policymaking process, in most cases as a trusted member of the NSC reporting to the President or National Security Advisor, where they are required to devise strategies and write Strategic Options Memos. Strategic Options Memos combine careful analysis and strategic imagination, on the one hand, with the necessity to communicate to major constituencies in order to sustain public support, on the other. A subtheme of the course explores coping with a world where a pervasive press makes secrecy more often the exception than the rule. In each case, we explore how media coverage affects decision making, including an examination of WikiLeaks; revelations about drones and secret, American-led cyberattacks; the National Security Agency affair; and other examples of the publication of classified information. The course will meet once a week for two class sessions (three consecutive hours). One of the two sessions each week will focus on a specific, real-world case that crystallizes one of the central

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challenges. The second session will provide an opportunity to consider additional central challenges, as well as host occasional guests. Participants are required to come to class prepared to discuss the readings (approx. 150 pages per week) and to submit a one-page outline of a strategic options memo for each case. In responding to one of the cases, chosen by each student, a full strategic options memo (three pages long) will be required. The final exam will be take-home and will require submitting a strategic options memo plus answering questions that cover the readings. Time: Tuesdays, 8:40am-11:30am Location: BL1 (Weil Town Hall)

Learning Objectives: To enhance participants ability to: (1) analyze issues in international affairs from a policy perspective; (2) think strategically about feasible interventions; (3) communicate analyses of issues in Strategic Options Memos and Outlines; (4) operate within current national security policymaking processes surrounded by an intrusive, inquiring press; and (5) appreciate the complexities of communicating national security policies to multiple audiences.

Expectations: A graduate-level professional course (open to a limited number of undergraduates): attendance at scheduled classes (unless excused in advance for special reasons); completion of assignments on time; reading of all assigned materials in advance of class; readiness to respond to cold calls.

Eligibility: Limited enrollment. Course enrollment will follow procedures established by HKS and FAS. Graduate students from MIT and Fletcher, HKS National Security Fellows, and other fellows are welcome for credit or audit (space permitting).

Reading: Students are required to complete approximately 150 pages of assigned readings each week, including handouts. Required readings will be on the Course Page. For non-HKS students, please go to the following link for Course Page access: https://secure.ksg.harvard.edu/degrees/HKSCrossRegistration/. Participants are also required to read at least one major newspaper daily: the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, or the Financial Times. Additional relevant articles will be posted on the Course Page. Required Books: Throughout the course of the semester, participants will read significant portions of the books listed below. They are available for purchase at the COOP or through electronic download, and on reserve at the HKS Library.

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Allison, Graham. Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe. Holt/Times Books, 2004. Reveron, Derek. Exporting Security: International Engagement, Security Cooperation, and the Changing Face of the U.S. Military. Georgetown University Press, 2010. Sanger, David. Confront and Conceal: Obamas Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power. Crown, 2012. The New York Times, Open Secrets: WikiLeaks, War and American Diplomacy. Grove Press, 2011.

Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for Assignments: All assignments must be uploaded to the Course Page in order to receive full credit. Students are required to upload their assignment by 8:30am on the day it is due. Additionally, students must hand in two hard copies of their assignment at the beginning of class. Failure to do so will result in an incomplete grade. Additionally, all assignments must follow the formatting guidelines distributed in class.

Students enrolled for credit: Each student is expected to turn in a memo/outline representing his/her own work. Students are encouraged to discuss the case and ideas for their memo/outline with fellow students, CAs, and/or other peers, but must do individual write-ups based on their own analysis. In your write-up, you do not need to cite ideas that come from the assigned readings, but you must cite any outside sources used. Collaboration is NOT permitted on the take home final exam.

Auditors: May work in small groups (2-4 students) on assignments. Turn in one memo/outline with all students' ID numbers in the "From" line. Citation policy is the same as that for enrolled students.

Grades: Class participation: 20% Outlines/memos: 30% Mini-case assignment: 15% Final exam: 35%

Office Hours: Professor Allisons office hours will generally be held on Thursdays from 5:00-6:00pm. An office hours sign-up sheet will be posted outside Professor Allisons office (L368) each week. David Sanger will be lecturing at a limited number of class sessions, and will announce his office hours ahead of his visits. They will usually be on select Tuesday afternoons. Prof. Reveron's office hours will be held from 7:00-8:30am before class on Tuesdays. Students may contact him at derek.reveron@usnwc.edu. Course Assistants will also schedule weekly office hours. Check the Course Page for updates.

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IGA-211/GOV 1796 Course Schedule Fall 2013

T T

Sept 3 Sept 10

Shopping Day: Introduction Overview: Presidential Decisions: Syria in the aftermath of Afghanistan and Libya; Strategic Options Memos, Outlines, and the Press Obamas Afghanistan, JFKs Cuba, and Killing OBL: An Examination of National Interests, Strategy, and Conceptual Frameworks; [Case 1 due] U.S. Defense/National Security Budgeting [Case 2 due] Iran: Strategic Options for President Obama, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and Supreme Leader Khomeini Iran: Olympic Games, and Instruments of Power in International Relations [Case 3 due] Nuclear Terrorism and Pakistan Global Nuclear Order/Disorder? [Case 4 due] Meeting the China Challenge Can the U.S. Escape Thucydidess Trap? [Case 5 due] NSA, WikiLeaks, and the Press: Secrecy, Privacy, the Press, and National Security More on NSA, WikiLeaks, and the Press; and Other Hard Cases [Case 6 due] Exporting Security: the Military and Weak and Failing States, Pandemic Diseases, Trans-National Narcotic Trafficking, Piracy, and Vulnerable Information Systems Mini Cases Developed by Participants

Sept 17

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Sept 24 Oct 1

Oct 8

T T T T T

Oct 15 Oct 22 Oct 29 Nov 5 Nov 12

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Nov 19 Nov 26

Dec 3

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Reading List: Syria Assigned: September 3, 2013 Due: September 10, 2013 Required: Allison, Graham and David Sanger. HarvardX video segments. Baker, Peter. Heavy Pressure Led to Decision by Obama on Syrian Arms, New York Times, 14 June 2013 Clark, Wesley. To Get a Truce, Be Ready to Escalate, New York Times, 17 June 2013 Dempsey, Gen. Martin. Letter to Senator Levin, 19 July 2013 Filkins, Dexter. The Thin Red Line, New Yorker, 13 May 2013 Interview with Barack Obama, Charlie Rose, 16 June 2013 (3:35-18:15) International Crisis Group. Syrias Metastasizing Conflicts, Middle East Report N128, 27 June 2013 (Executive Summary and Intro) Lynch, Marc. Syrias Hard Landing, Policy Brief, Center for New American Security, 22 February 2013 McCain, Sen. John, Sen. Carl Levin, and Sen. Robert Menendez. Letter to President Obama, 18 June 2013 Rachman, Gideon. The perilous drift to intervention in Syria, Financial Times, 3 December 2012 Report of the Commission on Americas National Interests, 2000, pp. 1-21 Ross, Dennis. Its Time to Act in Syria, Foreign Policy, 18 April 2013 Sanger, David. Confront and Conceal: Obamas Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (Crown, 2012), Chapter 14 (pp. 335-366) Slaughter, Anne-Marie. How to Halt the Butchery in Syria, New York Times, 23 February 2012 Timeline: Unrest in Syria, Washington Post, 13 June 2013 Zakaria, Fareed. Obamas Syria policy is full of contradictions, Washington Post, 19 June 2013 Additional recommended (not required, but useful for Syria case): Abdul-Ahad, Ghaith. How to Start a Batallion (in Five Easy Lessons), London Review of Books, 21 February 2013 Brinton, Crane. The Anatomy of Revolution, Revised ed. (Vintage Books, 1965), Chapters 5-6, 8, epilogue Friedman, Thomas. This Aint Yogurt, New York Times, 4 May 2013 Ignatieff, Michael. Getting Iraq Wrong, New York Times Magazine, 5 August 2007 Jeffrey, James. Intervention Escalation, Foreign Policy, 24 April 2013 Lund, Aron. Freedom fighters? Cannibals? The truth about Syrias rebels, The Independent, 17 June 2013 PBS Frontline. Syria: Behind the Lines, 9 April 2013 (video) Rebel Eats Heart of Syrian Soldier, 13 May 2013 (YouTube) Zelikow, Philip. Foreign Policy Engineering: From Theory to Practice and Back Again, International Security, Spring 1994, pp. 143-171

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Reading List: Obamas Afghanistan, JFKs Cuba, and Killing OBL An Examination of National Interests, Strategy, and Conceptual Frameworks Assigned: September 10, 2013 Due: September 17, 2013 Required: Allison, Graham, How it Went Down: The Last Days of Osama bin Laden, TIME, 7 May 2012 Allison, Graham T., and Philip Zelikow. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2nd ed. 1999. pp. 1-12, 109-120, and 379-407 Eikenberry, Karl W., Cables on U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan, New York Times, 5 January 2010 Kennedy, Paul. Grand Strategies in War and Peace: Toward a Broader Definition, in Paul Kennedy (ed.), Grand Strategies in War and Peace (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1991), pp. 1-7 May, Ernest and Philip Zelikow. The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House During the Cuban Missile Crisis (Belknap Press, 1997), pp. 542-549 Sanger, David. Confront and Conceal: Obamas Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (Crown, 2012), pp. ix-xx, 15-57, 114-138 Recommended: Agha, Hussein and Robert Malley. This is Not a Revolution, New York Review of Books, 8 November 2012 Berger, Alan. The let-it-burn strategy in Syria, Boston Globe, 22 June 2013 Joseph, Edward, and Elizabeth OBagy. Syrian Peace and the Bosnia Precedent, National Interest, 22 May 2013 Reagan, Ronald. Remarks and a Q&A Session with Regional Editors and Broadcasters on the Situation in Lebanon, 24 October 1983 Syrian refugees: where are they? Guardian, 25 July 2013 Background for participants not familiar with the U.S. Government: Kegley, Charles W. and Eugene R. Wittkopf. American Foreign Policy: Pattern and Process, 5th ed. (St. Martins Press, 1996), Chapters 10-11 Special note: All participants are required to attend one screening of the film 13 Days, which will be shown from 6:30-9:00pm September 12 in Bell Hall (B-500) and September 16 in the Belfer Center Library (L369). Film will be discussed at the September 17 class meeting.

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Reading List: U.S. Defense/National Security Budgeting Assigned: September 17, 2013 Due: September 24, 2013 Required:
'Strategic Solvency': How Much National Security Can We Afford?

Carter, Ashton interviewed by David Sanger, Refashioning Todays Pentagon to Fight the Wars of the Future, Aspen Institute, July 18, 2013 (17 pages) Defense Advisory Committee, A New US Defense Strategy for a New Era: Military Superiority, Agility, and Efficiency Stimson Center and Peterson Foundation, November 15, 2012, pp. 3-6, 51-59. (13 pages) Eaglen, Mackenzie, Defense vs. Food Stamps- What Would You Choose? Wall Street Journal, August 7, 2012 (3 pages) Haass, Richard, America Can Take a Breather. And It Should., NYT, June 22, 2013 (2 pages) Lieberthal, Kenneth and Michael OHanlon, The Real National Security Threat: Americas Debt, LA Times, July 13, 2012 (2 pages) Plumer, Brad, Americas staggering defense budget, in charts Washington Post, January 7, 2013 (4 pages) Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense DOD, January 2012, pp. 1-8 (8 pages) Andrews, Wilson and Todd Lindeman, The Black Budget Washington Post, August 29, 2013 (2 pages) Approaches for Scaling Back the Defense Departments Budget Plans Congressional Budget Office, March 2013, pp. 1-6 (6 pages) Drew, Christopher, Costliest Jet, Years in Making, Sees the Enemy: Budget Cuts New York Times, November 28, 2012 (8 pages) Eaglen, Mackenzie and Michael OHanlon, Military Entitlements Are Killing Readiness, Wall Street Journal, July 25, 2013 (2 pages) Harrison, Todd and Mark Gunzinger, Strategic Choices: Navigating Austerity CSBA, November 27, 2012, pp. i-iii, 1-3, 11-23 (19 pages) Letter: Consensus on defense reforms AEI, CAP, CNAS, CSBA, CSIS, FPI, NSN, Brookings, Cato, Stimson, June 3, 2013 (2 pages) McLeary, Paul, Armys Problems go Deeper Than SCMR, Defense News, August 1, 2013 (3 pages) Rabechault, Mathieu, Are US Navys Super Carriers a Relic of Wars Past? Defense News, March 23, 2013 (2 pages)

The Specifics: What Can We Live Without?

The Sliced Sausage: How a Budget Comes Together (and Falls Apart)

Barno, David, Nora Bensahel, Jacob Stokes, Joel Smith, and Katherine Kidder, The Seven Deadly Sins of Defense Spending CNAS, June 2013, pp. 5-9 (5 pages) Executive Office of the President, Overview of the Budget, Circular No. A-11 (Washington, DC: GPO, July 2013) (7 pages)

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Kaplan, Fred, Line Item Warfare Slate, April 10, 2013 (2 pages) Task Force on Defense Budget and Strategy, Indefensible: The Sequesters Mechanics and Adverse Effects on National and Economic Security, Bipartisan Policy Center, June 2012, pp. 1020 (11 pages) Adler, Loren and Shai Akabas, A Guide to the 2014 Sequester, Bipartisan Policy Center, June 3, 2013 (4 pages) Clark, Colin, Fear, Changing Threats Drive SCMR, OpPlans Rewrite; Cut Readiness Dough, Analysts Say, Breaking Defense, August 2, 2013 (3 pages) Hagel, Chuck Statement on Strategic Choices and Management Review DOD, July 31, 2013 (8 pages)

Cliff Dive: What You Need to Know About Sequestration

Recommended:

CBO, Long-Term Implications of the 2013 Future Years Defense Program, (Washington, DC: GPO, July 2012) The Future Military: Your Budget Strategy New York Times, January 2, 2012. N.B. tool does not reflect changes to defense budget since 2012. Best used as reference and ideas. Do not use tool to make budgetary decisions in your memo. OHanlon, Michael, Healing the Wounded Giant: Maintaining Military Preeminence while Cutting the Defense Budget (Washington: Brookings, 2013). OSD, Overview: US Department of Defense FY2014 Budget Request (Washington, DC: DOD, April 2013).

Reading List: Iran Assigned: September 24, 2013 Due: October 1, 2013 Required: Nuclear program Albright, David and Christina Walrond. Irans Critical Capability in 2014, Institute for Science and International Security, 17 July 2013 Allison, Graham. How Close is Iran to Exploding Its First Nuclear Bomb? Scientific American, 30 May 2012 Allison, Graham. Will Iran Get a Bombor Be Bombed ItselfThis Year? Atlantic, 1 August 2013 Associated Press. Iran Increases Some Nuclear Activity, UN Agency Says, printed in Wall Street Journal, 28 August 2013 Bozorgmehr, Najmeh. Irans supreme leader pushes for flexibility in nuclear talks, Financial Times, 17 September 2013 Breakout beckons, Economist, 22 June 2013 Einhorn, Robert. Getting to Yes With Iran, Foreign Policy, 10 July 2013

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Epstein, Edward Jay. How Iran Could Get the Bomb Overnight, Wall Street Journal, 27 March 2013 Hadley, Stephen, Joseph Lieberman, and Jim Steinberg. Irans nuclear ambitions demand urgent reaction from international community, Washington Post, 13 June 2013 Heinonen, Olli and Simon Henderson. Nuclear Iran: Technical Issues Overshadowing Negotiations,, 23 October 2012 Heinonen, Olli and Simon Henderson. Rouhani and Irans Nuclear Progress, Washington Institute, 6 September 2013 Jervis, Robert. Getting to Yes with Iran, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2013 Kahl, Colin H., Raj Pattani, and Jacob Stokes. If All Else Fails: The Challenges of Containing a Nuclear-Armed Iran, Center for a New American Security, 13 May 2013, pp. 5-16 (recommended, but not required: pp. 17-22) Luers, William, Thomas R. Pickering, and Jim Walsh. For a New Approach to Iran, New York Review of Books, 15 August 2013 Ross, Dennis. Calling Irans Bluff: Its Time to Offer Tehran a Civilian Nuclear Program, The New Republic, 15 June 2012 Senate letter to President Obama, 2 August 2013 Takeyh, Ray. The best red line for a nuclear Iran, Washington Post, 31 March 2013 Weighing Benefits and Costs of Military Action Against Iran, Iran Project, September 2012, Executive Summary, pp. 7-13

Rouhani and U.S.-Iran relations Clawson, Patrick. Rouhanis Nuclear Views: An Open Book? Washington Institute, 19 June 2013 Cohen, Roger. Rouhanis New Year, New York Times, 9 September 2012 Dareini, Ali Akbar. Top Iran adviser reaches out to West, Associated Press, 19 August 2013 Erdbrink, Thomas. Irans President Puts New Focus on the Economy, New York Times, 3 August 2013 Farhi, Farideh. Irans National Security and Nuclear Diplomacy: An Insiders Take, Lobe Log, 7 August 2012 Iran confirms exchange of letters with Obama, Reuters, 17 September 2013 MacDonald, Myra. Despite thaw, resolving Iranian nuclear dispute a major challenge, Reuters, 22 September 2013 Maloney, Suzanne. Why Rouhani WonAnd Why Khamenei Let Him, Foreign Affairs, 16 June 2013 President Rouhanis First Press Conference, Iran Primer, U.S. Institute of Peace, 6 August 2013 Rohani, Hassan. Irans Nuclear Program: The Way Out, TIME, 9 May 2006 Sanger, David. Quick Turn of Fortunes as Diplomatic Options Open Up with Syria and Iran, New York Times, 19 September 2013 Takeyh, Ray. What will Irans new president do? His memoir offers some clues, Washington Post, 5 July 2013 Warrick, Joby and Jason Rezaian. Irans economic crisis deepens as Rouhani prepares to take office, Washington Post, 2 August 2013

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Israel Allison, Graham. Why Netanyahu Backed Down, New York Times, 12 October 2012 Landler, Mark and Jodi Rudoren. As It Makes Ovetures to Iran, U.S. Strives to Reassure Israel, New York Times, 20 September 2013. Netanyahu, Benjamin. Interview with Face the Nation, 14 July 2013 (watch 12:34-19:15) Netanyahu, Benjamin. Remarks at UN General Assembly, 27 September 2013 (watch 11:52-29:17) Obama, Barack. Interview with Israels Channel 2, 14 March 2013 (watch 2:05-8:12) Sanger, David. Confront and Conceal: Obamas Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (Crown, 2012), Ch. 9, pp. 226-240 Sanger, David. Imagining an Israeli Strike on Iran, New York Times, 27 March 2010

Syria Hoffman, David. A Grand Bargain in the Cards, Huffington Post, 17 September 2013 Press, Darryl and Jennifer Lind. Red lines and red herrings, Foreign Policy, 6 May 2013 Ross, Dennis. Blocking action on Syria makes an attack on Iran more likely, Washington Post, 9 September 2013 Sick, Gary. Credibility? Garys Choices blog, 9 September 2013 Takeyh, Ray. Red Lines, Allies and Enemies, New York Times, 17 September 2013 Worth, Robert. Drawing a Line on Syria, U.S. Keeps Eye on Iran Policy, New York Times, 2 September 2013

Recommended (not required): Albright, David, Christina Walrond, and Andrea Stricker. ISIS Analysis of IAEA Safeguards Report, Institute for Science and International Security, 28 August 2013 Bergman, Ronen. Will Israel Attack Iran? New York Times Magazine, 25 January 2013 Doomsday Counter, Economist, 26 June 2013 Ganji, Akbar. Who is Ali Khamenei? Foreign Affairs, September/October 2013 Heinonen, Olli and Simon Henderson. Nuclear Iran: A Glossary of Terms, Washington Institute, May 2013 Kane, Chen. Nuclear Decision-Making in Iran: A Rare Glimpse, Middle East Brief, Crown Center for Middle East Studies, Brandeis University, May 2006 Kupchan, Cliff. An Opening in Iran, New York Times, 22 July 2013 Nader, Alireza. What to do now? Iran torn on Syria, USIP Iran Primer, 11 September 2013 Sadjadpour, Karim. Reading Khamenei: the Worldview of Irans Most Powerful Leader, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2009. pp.14-31 Yadlin, Amos and Avner Golov. Irans Plan B for the Bomb, New York Times, 8 August 2013

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Reading List: Iran Case Discussion, Instruments of American Power, and Olympic Games Assigned: October 1, 2013 Due: October 8, 2013 Required: Allison, Graham and David Sanger. HarvardX video segments. o Segment 6 (Classified Information) o Segment 7 (Iran Case I Advising the President) o Segments 8 & 9 (Red Teaming & Iran Case II Advising the Ayatollah) o Segment 10 (Iran Case III Advising the Israeli PM) Allison, Graham. The Cuban Missile Crisis at 50, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2012, pp. 11-16 Doctrine for the Armed Forces of the United States: Joint Publication 1, Joint Chiefs of Staff, 25 March 2013, Ch. 1, pp. I-11-I-13 (Instruments of National Power and the Range of Military Operations) Ignatius, David. Rouhani sees a nuclear deal in 3 months, Washington Post, 25 September 2013 Sanger, David. Confront and Conceal: Obamas Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (Crown, 2012), Prologue and Ch. 8, pp. ix-xx, 188-225 U.S. Foreign Policy Tools: An Illustrative Matrix of Selected Options, National Foreign Trade Council Zakaria, Fareed. Can Rouhani or Obama deliver on any deal? Washington Post, 25 September 2013 Cyber, Sanctions, and Leaks Clarke, Richard A. and Robert K. Knacke. Cyber War: The Next Threat to National Security and What to Do About It, Ch. 6, pp. 179-218 (skim) Coll, Steve. The Rewards (and Risks) of Cyber War, New Yorker, 7 June 2012 Erdbrink, Thomas and Rick Gladstone. Iran Assails House Sanctions Bill, Saying It Will Complicate Nuclear Dispute, New York Times, 1 August 2013 Ignatius, David. The Anatomy of a Leak, Washington Post, 22 June 2012 Johnson, Keith. Beijing Gets a Pass on Iran Sanctions, Wall Street Journal, 5 June 2013 Kirk, Mark and Eliot Engel. Without Stronger Sanctions, Iran Will Go Nuclear, Wall Street Journal, 12 August 2013 Spider Web: The Making and Unmaking of Iran Sanctions, International Crisis Group, 25 February 2013, Executive Summary and Conclusion, pp. i-v, 45-53 (also see interactive here) Weighing Benefits and Costs of International Sanctions Against Iran, Iran Project, December 2012, Executive Summary, pp. 5-14 (also see chart pp. 68-77) Red teaming: Israel Allison, Graham, David Sanger, and Derek Reveron. Iran Case Red Teaming Israel, HarvardX, July 2013 (attached) *Note: this case was assigned to online students enrolled in the HKS-211x course. Read and reflect to better understand the Israeli perspective on the Iranian nuclear issue, but you do NOT have to complete the written assignment. Allison, Graham and David Sanger. Case #1: Israels Dilemma: To Strike or Not to Strike?, September 2012 (attached)

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*Note: this case was assigned to IGA-211 students last year. Read and reflect to better understand the Israeli perspective on the Iranian nuclear issue, but you do NOT have to complete the written assignment. Landler, Mark. Netanyahu is Said to View Iran Deal as a Possible Trap, New York Times, 22 September 2013 Rudoren, Jodi. As the New Iranian Leader Gets a Warm Reception, Israel Calls for Caution, New York Times, 24 September 2013

Red teaming: Iran Allison, Graham, David Sanger, and Derek Reveron. Iran Case Red Teaming Iran, HarvardX, July 2013 (attached) *Note: Prof. Allison would have assigned, but Prof. Sanger vetoed on the grounds that this assignment, which asks how Iran could get 2 bombs ready to test in 12 months, would be technically too hard. Read and reflect to better understand the Israeli perspective on the Iranian nuclear issue, but you do NOT have to complete the written assignment. Recommended (not required): Hufbauer, Gary, et al. Case 2006-1, Case Studies in Economic Sanctions and Terrorism, Peterson Institute of International Economics, updated June 2012 Hufbauer, Gary, et al. Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd ed. (Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2009), Ch. 6, pp. 155-178 Mackey, Robert. Israeli Diplomats Mock Irans President Online, New York Times, 24 September 2013 Obama, Barack. Remarks at UN General Assembly, 24 September 2013 Rouhani, Hassan. Remarks at UN General Assembly, 24 September 2013 Rouhani, Hassan. Remarks to Asia Society and Council on Foreign Relations, 26 September 2013 (video) Spider Web: The Making and Unmaking of Iran Sanctions, International Crisis Group, 25 February 2013, Ch. 3, pp. 19-38 (also see interactive here) Strategic Options for Iran: Balancing Pressure with Diplomacy, Iran Project, April 2013, Executive Summary and Ch. 4, pp. 7-13, 41-55 War in the Fifth Domain, Economist, 1 July 2010

Reading List: Pakistan and Nuclear Terrorism Assigned: October 8, 2013 Due: October 15, 2013 Required: Terrorism, nuclear terrorism, and megaterrorism Allison, Graham. Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe (Holt/Times Books, 2004), Introduction and Ch. 8, pp. 1-15, 176-202; skim the rest Allison, Graham. Living in the Era of Megaterror, International Herald Tribune, 7 September 2012

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Allison, Graham. Nuclear Terrorism: Threat Briefing, Nuclear Security Summit, 12-13 April 2010 (course page) Allison, Graham. The Ongoing Failure of Imagination, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, September/October 2006, pp. 36-41 Allison, Graham. Washington Can Work: Celebrating Twenty Years With Zero Nuclear Terrorism, Huffington Post, 29 December 2011 Allison, Graham, Mohamed ElBaradei, and Ernesto Zedillo. Nuclear Security, International Herald Tribune, 10 April 2010 Assault on Pelindaba, 60 Minutes, 20 June 2010 (watch) Bunn, Matthew and Kevin Ryan. The nuclear terrorism threat and next U.S. Russian steps to prevent it, 3 June 2013 (required: slides 21-22, 29-32, 35-38, 45-49; skim the rest) (course page) Lipton, Eric and Scott Shane. Anthrax Case Renews Questions on Bioterror, New York Times, 3 August 2008 Mowatt-Larssen, Rolf. Al Qaeda Weapons of Mass Destruction Threat: Hype or Reality? Belfer Center report, 25 January 2010, pp. 5-9 (skim pp. 11-28) Nuclear Terrorism Fact Sheet, Belfer Center, updated October 2013 (course page) Sanger, David. The Inheritance: The World Obama Confronts and the Challenges to American Power (Harmony, 2009), pp. 399-418 (recommended: pp. 419-29) Steps to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, Belfer Center report, September 2013, pp. 3-6, 19-22

Video clips Countdown to Zero, 2010 (with Kissinger addendum) Last Best Chance, 2005 Nuclear Tipping Point, 2010 Pakistan Ambinder, Marc and Jeffrey Goldberg. The Ally from Hell, Atlantic, December 2011, pp. 48-64 Cold shoulder for Sharif, Economist, 28 September 2013 Lieven, Anatol. Pakistan: A Hard Country (PublicAffairs, 2011), Introduction, pp. 3-10, 23-29 (course page) Sanger, David. Confront and Conceal (Crown, 2012), Ch. 6, pp. 58-67 National security and the press (for Session II with David Ignatius) Ignatius, David. Anatomy of a Leak, Washington Post, 22 June 2012 Ignatius, David. David Axelrod and the medias dying credibility, Washington Post, 19 February 2012 Ignatius, David. Edward Snowdens misplaced idealism, Washington Post, 12 June 2013 Ignatius, David. Wide, wide world of surveillance, Washington Post, 4 September 2013 Recommended (not required): 1 Nuclear 101 Bunn, Matthew. Nuclear 101: How Nuclear Bombs Work, September 2013 (video)
1

For those of you who are interested in the novelist's account of nuclear terrorism, you may wish to read Richard North Patterson's The Devil's Light (Scribner, 2010) and former Secretary of Defense William Cohen's Blink of an Eye (Forge, 2011).

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Wellerstein, Alex. Nukemap 3D, Restricted Data, 22 July 2013

Terrorism, nuclear terrorism, and megaterrorism Allison, Graham. A Failure to Imagine the Worst, Foreign Policy, 25 January 2010 Allison, Graham. Case #5: Red Teaming Bin Laden, 14 March 2005 *Note: You are NOT required to complete this assignment, but should read and reflect for class discussion. Allison, Graham and Andrei Kokoshin. A US-Russian Alliance Against Megaterrorism, Boston Globe, 16 November 2001 Allison, Graham. What Happened to the Soviet Superpowers Nuclear Arsenal? Belfer Center report, March 2012, pp. 1-3, 23-27 Bernstein, Paul I. International Partnerships to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University, May 2008 Bunn, Matthew. Securing the Bomb, April 2010, Executive Summary, pp. v-xvi Bunn, Matthew. Securing the Bomb, November 2008, pp. 3-4 (Pelindaba) Bunn, Matthew and Eben Harrell. Consolidation: Thwarting Nuclear Theft, Belfer Center report, March 2012, pp. v-ix Bunn, Matthew, Eben Harrell, and Martin Malin. Progress on Securing Nuclear Weapons and Materials, Belfer Center report, March 2012, pp. 5-12 Fissile material stocks, International Panel on Fissile Materials, January 2013 Global Nuclear Security Gains, Nuclear Threat Initiative, 30 January 2013 Kokoshin, Andrei. A Nuclear Response to Nuclear Terror, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, September 2006, pp. 59-63 (course page) Jenkins, Brian Michael. Will Terrorists Go Nuclear? (Prometheus Books, 2008), pp. 323-353 Langewiesche, William. The Atomic Bazaar: Ch. 1, New York Times, 20 May 2007 Mead, Walter Russell. Atomic Gaffes, New York Times Book Review, 15 September 2013 Meade, Charles and Roger C. Molander. Considering the Effects of a Catastrophic Terrorist Attack, RAND Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy, 2006, pp. xv-xviii, 1-5; skim Appendix A, pp. 13-28 Mowatt-Larssen, Rolf. Nightmares of nuclear terrorism, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2010, pp. 37-45 Myhrvold, Nathan. Strategic Terrorism, Lawfare paper, 3 July 2013 National Statement of the United States, Nuclear Security Summit, April 2010 Nuclear Security Dossier, Belfer Center webpage, March 2012 (skim) Sanger, David, Raymond Bonner, and William Broad. A Tale of Nuclear Proliferation: How Pakistani Built His Network, New York Times, 12 February 2004 Shane, Scott. Portrait Emerges of Anthrax Suspects Troubled Life, New York Times, 4 January 2009 Tobey, Will and Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. The Armageddon Test, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 26 July 2010 United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540, 28 April 2004 World at Risk, Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism (Vintage Books, December 2008), pp. xv-xxvii, 43-64 Pakistan

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Gowen, Annie. Pakistan, India spar in Kashmir in worst border violence in years, Washington Post, 12 September 2013 Joshi, Shashank. Pakistans Tactical Nuclear Nightmare: Dj vu? Washington Quarterly, Summer 2013, pp. 159-172 MacDonald, Myra. South Asian arms race raises risk of nuclear war: IISS think tank Reuters, 12 September 2013 Nauman, Qasim. Militants attack major Pakistan air base; nine killed, Reuters, 16 August 2012 Rashid, Ahmad. How it went wrong for Nawaz Sharif, BBC, 24 September 2013 World at Risk, Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism (Vintage Books, December 2008), pp. 65-75

Reading List: Global Nuclear Order Assigned: October 15, 2013 Due: October 22, 2013

Required: Global order Kennedy, Paul. Things fall apart, Financial Times, 28 September 2012 Kissinger, Henry. The Chance for a New World Order, International Herald Tribune, January 12, 2009 Kissinger, Henry. Diplomacy (Simon & Schuster, 1994), Ch. 1 and Ch. 31, pp. 17-28, 804-35 Kissinger, Henry. A World Restored: Metternich, Castlereagh and the Problems of Peace 1812-22 (Houghton Mifflin, 1957), Introduction, pp. 1-6 Global nuclear order Allison, Graham. Bold Proposals for Transforming the Global Nuclear Order, 22 October 2012 (course page) Allison, Graham. How fragile is the global nuclear order? in Influencing Tomorrow: Future Challenges for British Foreign Policy (eds. Douglas Alexander and Ian Kearns, Guardian Books, 2013), pp. 161-77 Allison, Graham. How to Keep the Bomb From Terrorists, Newsweek, 23 March 2009 Allison, Graham. Obamas nuclear visionor illusion? Boston Globe, 5 April 2013 Bundy, McGeorge. Danger and Survival (Random House, 1988), pp. 155-76, 192-96 Kissinger, Henry. Interview with Graham Allison, 30 September 2009 (course page) Kissinger, Henry. Speech at the 45th Munich Security Conference, 6 February 2009 Obama, Barack. Remarks at UN Security Council Summit on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Disarmament, New York, 24 September 2009 Obama, Barack. Speech in Prague, Czech Republic, 5 April 2009 Schelling, Thomas. An Astonishing Sixty Years: The Legacy of Hiroshima, Nobel Prize Lecture, 8 December 2005 Shultz, George P. et al. Toward a Nuclear Free World, Wall Street Journal, 15 January 2008

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Shultz, George P. et al. A World Free of Nuclear Weapons, Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2007 Status of World Nuclear Forces 2013, Federation of American Scientists, updated 2013

Day After Carter, Ash, Ernest May and William Perry. The Day After: Action in the 24 Hours Following a Nuclear Blast in an American City, Preventive Defense Project, Harvard and Stanford Universities, May 2007, pp. 4-18 Woodward, Bob. Obamas Wars (Simon & Schuster, 2010), pp. 362-63 Recommended (useful for completing case assignment, but not required): Burt, Richard and Jan Lodal. The Next Step for Arms Control: A Nuclear Control Regime, Survival (2011), pp. 51-72 (course page) Clark, Grenville and Louis B. Sohn. Disarmament, in World Peace Through World Law: Two Alternative Plans (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1966), 206-13 (course page) Rinne, Robert L. An Alternative Framework for the Control of Nuclear Materials, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, May 1999 Robock, Alan and Owen Brian Toon, Self-assured destruction: the climate impacts of nuclear war, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, September/October 2012 Additional recommended (not required): Allison, Graham. The Cascade of Proliferation, Atlantic, October 2005 (course page) Allison, Graham. Flight of Fancy in Confronting the Specter of Nuclear Terrorism (American Academy of Political and Social Science, September 2006), pp. 162-66 Allison, Graham. Thinking about Zero, Trilateral Commission, August 2010, pp. 5-30 (course page) Evans, Gareth and Yoriko Kawaguchi. A plan to eliminate nuclear weapons, Financial Times, 18 December 2009 Gallucci, Robert. Averting Nuclear Catastrophe in Confronting the Specter of Nuclear Terrorism (Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, September 2006), pp. 51-58 Gardner, Richard. The Hard Road to World Order, Foreign Affairs, April 1974, pp. 556-76 Guarino, Douglas. New U.S.-Russian Security Deal Greatly Scales Back Scope, Experts Say, Global Security Newswire, 18 June 2013 Kissinger, Henry. Foreword in Nuclear Proliferation: Risk and Responsibility (Trilateral Commission, 2006) Miller, Steven. Nuclear Collisions: Discord, Reform & the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime (Academy of Arts & Sciences, 2012), pp. 1-41 Nuclear Forensics: A Capability at Risk, Committee on Nuclear Forensics (Chair, Albert Carnesale), National Academy of Sciences, 2010, pp. 1-12 Obama, Barack. Remarks at the Brandenburg Gate, Berlin, 19 June 2013 Pincus, Walter. Panel Cites Tipping Point on Nuclear Proliferation, Washington Post, December 16, 2008 Power Reactor Information System, International Atomic Energy Agency, updated 15 October 2013 U.N. Security Council Resolution 1887, 24 September 2009

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Reading List: Meeting the China Challenge Assigned: October 22, 2013 Due: October 29, 2013 Required: US-China Relationship Allison, Graham and Robert D. Blackwill, with Ali Wyne, Lee Kuan Yew and the Future of US-China Relations, Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Masters Insights on China, the United States, and the World (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2013), 3749, 13 pages. Friedberg, Aaron L., Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics, National Interest (July-Aug. 2011), 1827, 10 pages. Kissinger, Henry, China: Containment Wont Work, Washington Post (6/13/05), 4 pages. Kissinger, Henry, Avoiding a US-China cold war, Washington Post (1/14/11), 2 pages. Lind, Jennifer and Daryl Press, The Sources of the Sino-American Spiral, National Interest (9/18/13), 7 pages. Mahbubani, Kishore, While America Slept: How the United States botched China's rise, Foreign Policy (2/27/13), 3 pages. Sanger, David, Obama and Xi Try to Avoid a Cold War Mentality, New York Times (6/9/13), 3 pages. Historical Precedents and Thucydidess Trap Allison, Graham, Avoiding Thucydidess Trap, Financial Times (8/22/12), 1 page. Allison, Graham, Obama and Xi Must Think Broadly to Avoid a Classic Trap, New York Times (6/6/13), 2 pages. Kissinger, Henry, Does History Repeat Itself? The Crowe Memorandum, On China (New York: Penguin Press, 2011), 51430, 17 pages. Current US Policy Bader, Jeffrey A., Obama and Chinas Rise: An Insiders Account of Americas Asia Strategy (Washington, DC: Brookings 2012), 1048, 5 pages. Clinton, Hillary, Americas Pacific Century, Foreign Policy (11/2011), 9 pages. Donilon, Tom, America is back in the Pacific and will uphold the rules, Financial Times (11/27/11), 2 pages. Donilon, Tom, The United States and the Asia-Pacific in 2013, Asia Society, New York, NY (3/11/13), 7 pages. Remarks by President Barack Obama and Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, The US-China relationship, Washington, DC (2/14/12), 2 pages. Rudd, Kevin A subtle defrosting in Chinas chilly war with America, Financial Times, (6/10/13), 2 pages. Statements on Obama administrations pivot toward Asia-Pacific, 1 page.

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Economics and the International Order Kato, Yoichi, Interview: G. John Ikenberry: Liberal international order should be strengthened to integrate rising China, Asahi Shimbun (9/13/13), 8 pages. National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (Washington, DC: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 11/12), 810, 1519, 7678, 11 pages. Zoellick, Robert B., Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility? remarks to National Committee on US-China Relations, New York, NY (9/21/05), 6 pages. Territorial Disputes Campbell, Kurt, Threats to peace are lurking in the East China Sea, Financial Times (6/25/13), 3 pages. View from China Allison, Graham, Considering China? It Pays to Listen to Lee, Financial Times (1/28/13), 1 page. Allison, Graham and Robert D. Blackwill, with Ali Wyne, Lee Kuan Yew on the Future of China, Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Masters Insights on China, the United States, and the World (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2013), 117, 17 pages. Bingguo, Dai, Persisting with Taking the Path of Peaceful Development, website of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (12/6/10), 6 pages. Jiechi, Yang, U.S., China can forge a more cooperative relationship, Washington Post, (7/8/13), 1 page. Liu Chang, Commentary: U.S. fiscal failure warrants a de-Americanized world, Xinhua (10/13/13), 2 pages. Xuetong, Yan, The Problem of Mutual Trust, New York Times (11/15/12), 3 pages. Recommended (not required): Ahmed, Kamal, Jim ONeill: China could overtake US economy by 2027, Telegraph, (11/19/11). Allison, Graham, Comments on Yang Jiemians From Crisis Management to Strategic Cooperation, Power and Restraint: A Shared Vision for the U.S.-China Relationship, ed. Richard Rosecrance and Gu Guoliang (New York: Perseus, 2009), 15361, 9 pages. Blackwill, Robert D. "Ideal Qualities of a Successful Diplomat." Paper, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, October 17, 2013. Brzezinski, Zbigniew and Brent Scowcroft, The Virtue of Openness: China and the Far East, in America and the World: Conversations on the Future of American Foreign Policy, ed. David Ignatius (New York: Basic Books, 2008), 11356. The China model, Economist (5/6/10). Dobbins, James et al., Conflict with China: Prospects, Consequences, and Strategies for Deterrence, RAND occasional paper 344-A (2011), 111. Dyer, Geoff, US strategic battle guidelines under attack, Financial Times (5/31/12). Ferguson, Niall, In Chinas Orbit, Wall Street Journal (11/18/10). Friedberg, Aaron L., The Future of U.S.-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable? International Security 30, no. 2 (Fall 2005): 711 and 3945.

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Fukuyama, Francis, US democracy has little to teach China, Financial Times (1/17/11). Glaser, Bonnie S., A Shifting Balance: Chinese Assessments of U.S. Power, in Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power, ed. Craig S. Cohen (Washington, DC: CSIS, June 2011). Hille, Kathrin, China grapples with great power status, Financial Times (10/16/12). Ikenberry, G. John, The Future of the Liberal World Order: Internationalism After America, Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011), 5668. Kissinger, Henry, Remarks at The National Conversation: Chinas New Leadership: Opportunity for the United States?, Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, DC (10/3/12). Krugman, Paul, Rare and Foolish, New York Times (10/17/10). Li, Cheng, Chinas Team of Rivals, Foreign Policy (March/April 2009). Mearsheimer, John J., The Gathering Storm: Chinas Challenge to US Power in Asia, Chinese Journal of International Politics 3 (Winter 2010): 38196, 16 pages. Nathan, Andrew J., What China Wants: Bargaining with Beijing, Foreign Affairs (July/Aug. 2011). Qingguo, Jia and Richard Rosecrance, Delicately Poised: Are China and the U.S. Heading for Conflict? Global Asia (Winter 2010). Remarks by Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, New US Defense Strategy and Asia-Pacific Policy, Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore (6/2/12). Shambaugh, David, Coping with a Conflicted China, Washington Quarterly (Winter 2011): 725. Stelzer, Irwin M., Chinese Chess, Weekly Standard (12/18/10). US Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense (1/5/12), 2 and 45. US Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China 2013, Office of the Secretary of Defense (2013), 1527.

Reading List: Meeting the China Challenge Assigned: October 29, 2013 Due: November 5, 2013 Required: US-China Relationship Gill, Bates et al., Strategic Views on Asian Regionalism: Survey Results and Analysis (Washington, DC: CSIS, Feb. 2009), 47, 4 pages. International Security Advisory Board, US Dept. of State, Report on Maintaining U.S.-China Strategic Stability (10/26/12), 16, 6 pages. Kennedy, Paul, Dont Surrender U.S. Influence to Beijing, International Herald Tribune (9/29/10), 3 pages.

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Lieberthal, Kenneth and Wang Jisi, Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust, Brookings (3/12), 7 19, 13 pages. May, Ernest and Zhou Hong, A Power Transition and Its Effects, in Power and Restraint: A Shared Vision for the U.S.-China Relationship, ed. Richard Rosecrance and Gu Guoliang (New York: Perseus, 2009), 321, 19 pages. Nathan, Andrew J., and A. Scobell, How China Sees America, Foreign Affairs (Sept./Oct. 2012): 3247, 16 pages. Ross, Robert, Obamas New Asia Policy is Unnecessary and Counterproductive, Foreign Affairs (Nov. /Dec. 2012): 70-82, 13 pages.

Chinas Domestic Challenges Profile: Xi Jinping, BBC News (11/7/12), 2 pages. The East is grey: China and the environment, Economist (8/10/13), 10 pages. Beech, Hannah, How China Sees the World, TIME (6/17/13), 6 pages. Krugman, Paul, How Much Should We Worry About A China Shock? New York Times (blog) (7/20/13), 2 pages. Makinen, Julie and Barbara Demick, Chinas new leaders, Los Angeles Times (11/14/12), 4 pages. Meltzer, Joshua, A Trade Policy for President Obama's Second Term, Brookings (11/9/12), 3 pages. ONeill, Jim Why China Will Disappoint the Pessimists Yet Again, Bloomberg View (9/25/13), 3 pages. Wong, Edward, Chinese Military Seeks to Extend Its Naval Power, New York Times (4/23/10), 4 pages. Zoellick, Robert, The big questions China still has to answer, Financial Times (9/1/11), 3 pages. Cyber Clarke, Richard A., How China Steals Our Secrets, New York Times (4/2/12), 2 pages. Goldsmith, Jack, Why the USG Complaints Against Chinese Economic Cyber-Snooping Are So Weak, Lawfare (3/25/13), 2 pages. Goldsmith, Jack, Questions Someone Should Ask DOD About Its Report on Chinese CyberOperations, Lawfare, (5/7/13), 1 page. Morris, Charles R., We Were Pirates, Too: Why America was the China of the 19th century, Foreign Policy (12/5/12), 3 pages. Sanger, David U.S. Blames Chinas Military Directly for Cyberattacks, New York Times (5/6/13), 4 pages. Territorial Disputes Chinas and Japans UK ambassadors debate island dispute: o Hayashi, Amb. Keiichi, It is time for China to calm down, Financial Times (11/13/12), 2 pages. o Xiaoming, Amb. Liu, China responds to Japans provocation, Financial Times (11/1/12), 2 pages. Fravel, M. Taylor, The Dangerous Math of Chinese Island Disputes, Wall Street Journal

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(10/28/12), 2 pages. Kaplan, Robert D., The South China Sea Is the Future of Conflict, Foreign Policy (Sept./Oct. 2011): 18, 8 pages. White, Hugh, Caught in a bind that threatens an Asian war nobody wants, Sydney Morning Herald (12/26/12), 2 pages.

Recommended: Barboza, David, Billions in Hidden Riches for Family of Chinese Leader, New York Times (10/25/12). CFR InfoGuide, Chinas Maritime Disputes, 9/13. Charlie Rose interview with Henry Kissinger, (5/30/11). Christensen, Thomas J., The Advantages of an Assertive China: Responding to Beijings Abrasive Diplomacy, Foreign Affairs (March/April 2011). Dobbins, James, War with China, Survival 54, no. 4 (Aug.-Sept. 2012): 724. Eimer, David, Chinas huge leap forward into space threatens US ascendancy over heavens, Daily Telegraph (11/5/11). Friedberg, Aaron L., Bucking Beijing: An Alternative U.S. China Policy, Foreign Affairs (Sept./Oct. 2012). Glaser, Charles, Will Chinas Rise Lead to War? Why Realism Does Not Mean Pessimism, Foreign Affairs (March/April 2011). Hachigian, Nina and Yuan Peng, The U.S.-China Expectations Gap: An Exchange, Survival 52, no. 4 (Aug./Sept. 2010): 6786. Kaplan, Robert D., How We Would Fight China, Atlantic (June 2005). Mann, James, The China Fantasy: How Our Leaders Explain Away Chinese Repression (New York: Penguin Books, 2007), 17. Nye, Joseph, American and Chinese Power after the Financial Crisis, Washington Quarterly (10/10): 14353. Prestowitz, Clyde V., Lie of the Tiger, Foreign Policy (Nov. /Dec. 2010). Schweller, Randall L. and Xiaoyu Pu, After Unipolarity: Chinas Visions of International Order in an Era of U.S. Decline, International Security (Summer 2011): 5272. Shulong, Chu and Chen Songchuan, Is America Declining? Brookings Northeast Asia commentary 54 (Nov. 2011). Smith, Paul J., The Senkaku/Diaoyu Island Controversy: A Crisis Postponed, Naval War College Review 66, no. 2 (Spring 2013): 2744. Swaine, Michael D., Chinas Assertive BehaviorPart One: On Core Interests, China Leadership Monitor (Winter 2011): 111. Szamosszegi, Andrew and Cole Kyle, An Analysis of State-owned Enterprises and State Capitalism in China (Washington, DC: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, October 2011), 13. White, Hugh, Why War in Asia Remains Thinkable, Survival 50, no. 6 (12/2008): 85104. Zoellick, Robert B., Beyond Aid, speech delivered at George Washington University, Washington, DC (9/14/11).

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Reading List: WikiLeaks 2.0: Press, Power, and the Korean Peninsula Assigned: November 5, 2013 Due: November 12, 2013 Required: Allison, Graham and David Sanger. HarvardX video segments. o Wiki Segment 1 (Introduction to the Balancing Act: National Security vs. Responsibilities of a Free Press) o Wiki Segment 2 (Before WikiLeaks: Pentagon Papers, Warrantless Wiretapping, and the SWIFT Case) o Wiki Segment 3 (WikiLeaks) o Wiki Segment 4 (The Case: A Hypothetical Story About North Korea)

Historical Context: Pentagon Papers Abrams, Floyd, Why WikiLeaks Is Unlike the Pentagon Papers, Wall Street Journal, December 29, 2010 Ellsberg, Daniel, Lying About Vietnam, New York Times, June 29, 2001 Frankel, Max, Affidavit in United States of America v. New York Times Company, et al. 1971. Basis for Case #6: Wikileaks 2010 Keller, Bill, Introduction, Open Secrets: WikiLeaks, War, and American Diplomacy, January 2011, pp. 3-22 Sanger, David, How Our Diplomats Think, Open Secrets: WikiLeaks, War, and American Diplomacy, January 2011, pp. 331-333 Brisbane, Arthur, What if the Secrets Stayed Secret? New York Times, December 4, 2010 Brooks, David, The Fragile Community, New York Times, November 29, 2010 (CP #14) Council on Foreign Relations, Expert Roundup: Will WikiLeaks Hobble U.S. Diplomacy? December 1, 2010 Cowell, Alan, Leaked Cables Stir Resentment and Shrugs, New York Times, December 3, 2010 Carr, David, WikiLeaks Taps Power of the Press, New York Times, December 12, 2010 Clinton, Hillary, Remarks on the Release of Government Documents to WikiLeaks, November 29, 2010 Dickey, Christopher, Fighting Words, Newsweek, November 28, 2010 Espionage Act of 1917, Title 18 Section 798, Disclosure of Classified Information and Section 793, Gathering, transmitting or losing defense information. Frankel, Max, WikiLeaks: Secrets shared with millions are not secret, Guardian, November 30, 2010 Fullilove, Michael, WikiLeaks: Fruit of an Unhealthy Tree, Brookings Institution, December 16, 2010 Gienger, Viola and Flavia Krause-Jackson, WikiLeaks Postings to Have Modest Impact on Foreign Policy, Gates Says, Bloomberg, November 30, 2010 Gordon, Michael, Meddling Neighbors Torment Iraq, New York Times, December 5, 2010

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Transcript of Patrick Kennedy testimony, United States of America vs. PFC Bradley E. Manning, Vol. 28, August 5, 2013. [pp 49-60] Kurtz, Howard, WikiLeaks, the MSM and national security, Washington Post, July 27, 2010 Lieven, Anatol, Analysis: Impact of Wikileaks US cable publications, BBC News, December 4, 2010 Lindenberger, Michael, The U.S.s Weak Legal Case against WikiLeaks, Time, December 9, 2010 New York Times, Answers to Readers Questions About States Secrets, November 29, 2010 New York Times Editorial Board, WikiLeaks and the Diplomats, November 29, 2010 Pillar, Paul, The Many Costs of Leaks, The National Interest, October 22, 2010 Reynolds, Paul, Wikileaks: National security or national embarrassment? BBC News, November 29, 2010 Sanger, David, James Glanz, and Jo Becker, Around the World, Distress Over Iran, New York Times, November 28, 2010 Sanger, David, North Korea Keeps the World Guessing, New York Times, November 29, 2010 Savage, Charlie, U.S. Prosecutors Study WikiLeaks Prosecution, New York Times, December 7, 2010 Schmitt, Eric and Helene Cooper, Leaks Add to Pressure on White House Over Strategy, New York Times, June 26, 2010 Schoenfeld, Gabriel, The End of Secrecy, Weekly Standard, July 26, 2010 Schoenfeld, Gabriel, Can the U.S. Bring Assange to Justice? Wall Street Journal, December 8, 2010 Shane, Scott and Andrew W. Lehren, Cables Uncloak U.S. Diplomacy, New York Times, November 28, 2010 Stone, Geoffrey, A Clear Danger to Free Speech, New York Times, January 3, 2011 Yong, William and Alan Cowell, Iran Calls Leaked Documents a US Plot, New York Times, November 29, 2010

Recommended: Transcript, Shorenstein Centers Executive Session on WikiLeaks, February 3, 2011. Transcript, Freedom of the Press Does Not Extend to State Secrets, Intelligence Squared Debates, June 8, 2011. McCraw, David, and Stephen Gikow. "The End to an Unspoken Bargain? National Security and Leaks in a PostPentagon Papers World." Harvard Civil Rights-Civil Liberties Law Review 48.2 (2013): 473-509. Address by the Honorable Edward H. Levi, Attorney General of the United States Before the Association of the Bar of the City of New York, April 28, 1975.

A Proposed Shield Law Lewis, Anthony and Max Frankel, et al, Are Journalists Protected? Panel Discussion, Cardozo Law Review 29.4 (2008): 1353-1379. Savage, Charlie. "Court Tells Reporter to Testify in Case of Leaked C.I.A. Data," New York Times, July 20, 2013.

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United States of America v. Jeffrey Alexander Sterling, James Risen. United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit. 19 July 2013

Reading List: More on NSA, WikiLeaks, and the Press; and Other Hard Cases Assigned: November 12, 2013 Due: November 19, 2013 Required: Snowden Video of Edward Snowden Interview, Part I and Part II, The Guardian (7/8/13) Ellsberg, Daniel. Edward Snowden: saving us from the United Stasi of America, The Guardian (6/10/13) Ignatius, David, Edward Snowdens misplaced idealism, Washington Post (6/12/13) Sullivan, Andrew, Has Greenwald crossed the line? The Daily Dish (7/15/13) Risen, James, Snowden Says He Took No Secret Files to Russia, New York Times (10/17/13) Phone Metadata Program Greenwald, Glenn, NSA collecting phone records of millions of Verizon customers daily, The Guardian (6/5/13) Donohue, Laura, NSA surveillance may be legal but its unconstitutional, Washington Post (6/21/13) Miller, Greg, Misinformation on classified NSA programs includes statements by senior U.S. officials, Washington Post (6/30/13) Valentino-Devries, Jennifer and Siobhan Gorman, Secret Courts Redefinition of Relevant Empowered Vast NSA Data-Gathering, Wall Street Journal (7/8/13) Gerstein, Josh, Wyden: Dont conflate surveillance programs, Politico (7/24/13) Pincus, Walter, NSA should be debated on the facts, Washington Post (7/29/13) Pincus, Walter, The other side of the surveillance story, Washington Post (8/14/13) Elliott, Justin and Theodoric Meyer, Claim on Attacks Thwarted by NSA Spreads Despite Lack of Evidence, ProPublica (10/23/13) Sanger, David, As U.S. Weighs Spying Changes, Officials Say Data Sweeps Must Continue, New York Times (11/4/13) PRISM

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Gellman, Barton and Laura Poitras, U.S., British intelligence mining data from nine U.S. Internet companies in broad secret program, Washington Post (6/6/13) NSA Slides explain the PRISM data-collection program, Washington Post (6/6/13) Starr, Barbara, Terrorists try changes after Snowden leaks, officials say, CNN (6/25/13) Lee, Timothy, Heres everything we know about PRISM to date, Washington Post (7/12/13) Calahan, Thomas and Josh Chin, Snowdens Leaks Cloud U.S. China Talks, Wall Street Journal (7/8/13) Savage, Charlie, N.S.A. Said to Search Content of Messages to and From U.S., New York Times (8/8/13) Sanger, David, N.S.A. Leaks Make Plan for Cyberdefense Unlikely, New York Times (8/12/13) Goldsmith, Jack, We Need an Invasive NSA, The New Republic (10/10/13) Decryption

Perlroth, Nicole, Jeff Larson, and Scott Shane, N.S.A. Able to Foil Basic Safeguards of Privacy on Web, New York Times (9/5/13) Cracked credibility, The Economist (9/14/13) Spying On Other Countries

China Lam, Lana and Stephen Chen, EXCLUSIVE: Snowden reveals more US cyberspying details, South China Morning Post (6/22/13) Latin America Greenwald, Glenn, The NSAs mass and indiscriminate spying on Brazilians, The Guardian (7/6/13) Lizza, Ryan, What the N.S.A. Wants in Brazil, New Yorker (7/24/13) NSA Documents Show United States Spied Brazilian Oil Giant, Fantastico (9/8/13) Clapper, James, Statement by Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper on Allegations of Economic Espionage, (9/8/13) Colitt, Raymond and Arnaldo Galvao, Rousseff Calls Off U.S. Visit Over NSA Surveillance, Bloomberg (9/17/13) Europe Macaskill, Ewan and Julian Borger, New NSA leaks show how US is bugging its European allies, The Guardian (6/30/13) Heisbourg, Francois, Americas spying has made a European trade deal even harder, Financial Times (7/2/13) Traynor, Ian, EU threatens to suspend deal with US on tracking terrorists funding, The Guardian (9/24/13) Sanger, David and Mark Mazzetti, Allegation of U.S. Spying on Merkel Puts Obama at Crossroads, New York Times (10/24/13) Sanger, David, In Spy Uproar, Everyone Does It Just Wont Do, New York Times (10/25/13) Deeks, Ashley, The German Intelligence Agencies Are Coming to Town, Lawfare (10/28/13)

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Sanger, David, Obama May Ban Spying on Heads of Allied States, New York Times (10/29/13) NSAs relationship with companies

Fontanella-Khan, James, Against the eavesdroppers, Financial Times (7/25/13) Seward, Zachary, Mark Zuckerberg says people trust Facebook less after NSA revelations, Quartz (9/18/13) Peterson, Andrea, Post reporter: Heres why we refused the NSAs demand to censor the names of PRISM companies, The Switch (10/9/13) Oversight

FISA Court Favole, Jared, Former FISA Judge Says Changes Needed, Wall Street Journal (7/9/13) Editorial Board, More Independence for the FISA Court, New York Times (7/28/13) Baker, Stewart, Critiquing FISA Reforms, Skating on Stilts (8/1/13) Brenner, Joel, The Data on FISA Warrants, Lawfare (10/17/13) Congress Aftergood, Steven, A Candid Look at the Senate Intelligence Committee, Secrecy News (6/18/13) Potential for Abuse Friedman, Tom, Blowing a Whistle, New York Times (6/11/13) Keller, Bill, Living With the Surveillance State, New York Times (6/16/13) Edgar, Timothy, Big Transparency for the NSA, Wall Street Journal (8/1/13) Gorman, Siobhan, NSA Officers Spy on Love Interests, Wall Street Journal (8/23/13) Cordero, Carrie, Initial Observations on Newly Declassified Documents, Lawfare (8/22/13) Nakashima, Ellen, Julie Tate and Carol Leonnig, Declassified court documents highlight NSA violations in data collection for surveillance, Washington Post (9/10/13) The Press Keller, Bill, Is Glenn Greenwald the Future of News? New York Times (10/27/13) Public Opinion Page, Susan, Poll: Snowden should be prosecuted for NSA leaks, USA Today (6/18/13) U.S. Voters Say Snowden Is Whistle-Blower, Not Traitor, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Big Shift On Civil Liberties vs. Counter-Terrorism, (7/10/13) Most think NSA is violating privacy rights but want Snowden charged with a crime, Washington Post (7/23/13) Zegart, Amy and Marshall Erwin, The NSAs image problem, Los Angeles Times (11/1/13)

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General Commentary Hayden, Michael, What Edward Snowden did, CNN (7/19/13) Harris, Shane, The Surveillance State Strikes Back, Foreign Policy (7/26/13) Video of President Barack Obamas Press Conference (8/9/13) Goldsmith, Jack, Reflections on NSA Oversight, and a Prediction that NSA Authorities (and Oversight and Transparency) Will Expand, Lawfare (8/9/13) Aid, Matthew, The NSAs Data Haul Is Bigger Than You Can Possibly Imagine, Foreign Policy (8/15/13) Sanger, David and Thom Shanker, N.S.A. Director Firmly Defends Surveillance Efforts, New York Times (10/12/13) Hayden, Michael, American Intelligence and the High Noon Scenario, Wall Street Journal (10/30/13) Mazzetti, Mark and David Sanger, Tap on Merkel Provides Peek at Vast Spy Net, New York Times (10/30/13) Shane, Scott, No Morsel Too Miniscule for All-Consuming N.S.A., New York Times (11/2/13)

Recommended: Crowe, William, The Line of Fire: From Washington to the Gulf, the Politics and Battles of the New Military (pp. 212-227) Wittes, Benjamin and Jane Chong, Congress Has No Clothes: A Quick and Dirty Summary of the New FISC Opinion, Lawfare (9/17/13) Wittes, Benjamin and Jane Chong, Congress is Still Naked, Lawfare (9/19/13) Video of The NSA Conundrum: National Security vs. Privacy and the Press (9/25/13) Gellman, Barton and Ashkan Soltani, NSA collects millions of e-mail address books globally, Washington Post (10/14/13) Timberg, Craig and Ellen Nakashima, Amid NSA spying revelations, tech leaders call for new restraints on agency, Washington Post (11/1/13)

Reading List: Terrorists, Pirates, and Gangs: Defense Approaches to Non State Challenges Assigned: November 19, 2013 Due: November 26, 2013 Required: Adams, Gordon. Continental Shift: Why the Pentagon should pay less attention to Africa. Foreign Policy, January 25, 2013, pp. 1-6. Hurlburt, Heather. Malis Crisis Caused by Development Failures, The Guardian, January 2013, pp. 1-3. Le Sage, Andre. Africas Irregular Security Threats: Challenges for U.S. Engagement, Strategic Forum, No. 255, May 2010, pp. 1-12. Moyar, Mark. How Misguided U.S. Aid Contributed to Malis Coup, Bloomberg, March 11, 2013, pp. 1-3.

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Reveron, Derek S. Exporting Security: International Engagement, Security Cooperation, and the Changing Face of the U.S. Military. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2010 pp. 1-72.

Recommended: Farah, Douglas. Transnational Organized Crime, Terrorism, and Criminalized States USAWC Strategic Studies Institute, August 2012, pp. 1-29. Kaplan, Robert D. Imperial Grunts: The American Military on the Ground. New York: Random House, 2005, pp. 39-90. Priest, Dana. The Mission: Waging War and Keeping Peace with Americas Military. New York: WW Norton, 2003, pp. 11-120. Reveron, Derek S. and James L. Cook. From National to Theater: Developing Strategy, Joint Force Quarterly, Issue 70, 3rd Quarter 2013, pp. 113-120. Tarnoff, Curt, and Marian Lawson. Foreign Aid: An Introduction to United States Programs and Policy, CRS, February 2011, pp. 1-15. Zinni, Tony and Tony Koltz. The Battle for Peace: A Frontline Vision of Americas Power and Purpose. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006. Background for participants not familiar with the Unified Command Plan: Brown, David E. AFRICOM at 5 Years: The Maturation of a New U.S. Combatant Command, August 2013. Feickert, Andrew. The Unified Command Plan and Combatant Commands: Background and Issues for Congress, January 3, 2013. GAO, Security Force Assistance: DODs Consideration of Unintended Consequences, Perverse Incentives, and Moral Hazards, GAO-13-241R, Jan 8, 2013.

Reading List: Robert Zoellick: Economics and Security in U.S. Foreign Policy Assigned: November 19, 2013 Due: November 26, 2013 Required: Zoellick, Robert B. The Currency of Power, Foreign Policy, November 2012, pp. 68-73. Zoellick, Robert B. U.S. Trade Policy and Foreign-Security Policy Interests, PowerPoint (June 23, 2004). Zoellick, Robert B. Six ideas of how an integrated approach to economics and security could guide Americas strategic outlook, November 2013. Zoellick, Robert B. Handout for Class of November 26, 2013 Recommended: Clinton, Hillary. Economic Statecraft, Speech at Economic Club of New York, October 14, 2011. Gelb, Lesley. GDP Now Matters More than Force, Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2010.

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Marshall, George. The Marshall Plan Speech, Commencement Address at Harvard University, June 5, 1947. Pilling, David and Shawn Donnan. Trans-Pacific Partnership: Oceans Twelve, Financial Times, September 22, 2013. Rohde, David. Start-Up Diplomacy, The New York Times, May 7, 2013.