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Whither Demography?

Strengths and Weaknesses of the Discipline over Fifty Years of Change Author(s): Dominique Tabutin and Roger Depledge Source: Population (English Edition, 2002-), Vol. 62, No. 1 (2007), pp. 15-31 Published by: Institut National d'tudes Dmographiques Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/27645290 . Accessed: 07/03/2014 03:07
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Dominique

Tabutin*

Whither demography? Strengths andWeaknesses of the Discipline over FiftyYears of Change


was launched in the 1930s, developed institutionally Demography to many United States and France after 1945, and rapidly extended it is among the most recent, though countries. As a scientific discipline, in the other it now

to recount. In over half a century, the discipline has developed, has a history of research and in its teaching, both in terms of its themes and instruments following different pathways and advancing at different speeds from continent to continent and country to country. What stage has the science of demography reached it reached today? What a turning is its place in social sciences research and teaching? Has and its social and of its scientific visibility point? What we one or several its Are What of future? towards utility? moving

political forms of demography? These general questions, both wide-ranging and complex, will be addressed as I examine what 1 consider to be the discipline's assets and strengths, its one to a weaknesses and constraints certain (variable from another) and region Iwill end with a number of short- and medium-term risks and imperatives.
few suggestions. These questions are not new ones, or indeed specific to our

own discipline, attention at this time. but they are worthy of particular is based on the findings of recent seminars and publications The discussion devoted to the history, current situation and future of demography(1), analysis of the content the findings of major conferences, on the IUSSP group teaching from 1997 to 2002), of working groups (such as recent and major surveys of

Institute

of Demography,

Catholic

University

of Louvain

(Belgium)

Translated

Chair of the Institute of (such as the 2002 Quetelet (1) Often professors "Entre nature et culture :quelle(s) d?mo graphie (s) ?", of Louvain, of the Catholic University Demography of journals (Demography's 30th in 1993, Population Loriaux and Vilquin (eds.), 2006), the anniversaries in 1997 of Les contours Studies' 40th in 1996) or institutions (INED s 50th in 1995, with the publication de la d?mographie au seuil du xxf si?cle, Editions de l'INED, 435 p.).

by Roger Depledge held to celebrate emeritus

Population-E,

62

(1), 2007,

15-32

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?.

Tabutin

demographers(2)
own personal demography,

and research

institutions

around
in a

the world(3).
university population

It includes my
institute questions of in

as a experience professor as a researcher and working

European on mainly

countries
nor totally

of the South. The point of view will


unbiased.

therefore be neither

comprehensive

I.Demography is no longer a slow-flowing a rapid historical overview


Barely discipline,
objects were

river:

or forty years ago, was a clearly delimited demography terms in its defined of and Its essential precisely topics methodology. thirty
structures by age, sex and marital status, fertility, mortality and

its basic tools were standard demographic internal migration; statistics; most of its data came from administrative elementary
systems (civil records, censuses, the occasional register)(4). We

analysis and information


measured

and growth rates, described levels and trends, we projected (as phenomena best we could), and worked mainly at aggregate level. This can be seen inmany of the definitions of demography that were given in those days. Here are just
a few examples(5). H?user and Duncan (1959): "Demography of population, is the changes study therein, of the and size, territorial

distribution, of such Kirk

and composition

the components

changes." (1949): "Demography concerns are processes growth." (1969): of human "Demography populations." is the empirical, statistical and mathematical of is the quantitative of human study populations. the measurement and discovery in of uniformities human movement and birth, death, population

Its central the basic

population Bogue study

United Nations Multilingual


is the size, aspects scientific their of

Demographic

Dictionary

(1958): "Demography
respect to their the quantitative

of human study populations structure and their development; their general characteristics."

with primarily it takes into account

During
as teaching

the 1970s and 1980s, demography


and research centres were

rapidly became more


on every continent

international
and new

created

schools

of thought

emerged

.National

and international

funding

increased,

the first Internet survey in 2000 of demographers worldwide (2) Particularly (637 respondents), their training and careers, etc. The results were their vision of demography, research, in 2004 (D?mographie 2000. Une enqu?te internationale par Internet published aupr?s des d?mographes, 368 p.). Louvain-la-Neuve, Academia/Bruylant, concerning in particular dans d?mographique (3) See the CICRED lemonde, 2003 et scientifique institutionnel paper, Panorama the activities of 499 centres world-wide. in countries of the North and South were de la recherche

presenting national

the first major (4) Although the 1950s and 1960s. (5) Others may be found

surveys (1996) English

carried

out

in

in Caldwell American,

and Preston and French.

(1993).

(6) At that point, mainly

16

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Whither

Demography?

and South, with a clear priority given to fertility. Surveys became the preferred data collection method almost everywhere, especially in developing countries(7). At the same time, computer technology developed rapidly and was in made considerable progress analysis (biographical approaches, models, was a time revision of theories. This also debate and of indirect methods, etc.). as a statistical or (known variously analytical, formal demography Alongside in both North mathematical) focusing more there developed on the social, amore multi-disciplinary social demographyC8), causes and and cultural economic, political in other w7ords, to understand and explain aiming,

(1970 below). Nevertheless, during that period research objects that 1985) there was no major change in the clearly distinct were the standard components of population dynamics. Towards the end of the 1980s and in the 1990s, demographers' scope and areas of interest became more diversified under the pressure of facts (much of social and political the world was faced with crises and their consequences), for and sometimes (national or international) funding requirements the institutions of created. With inertia, varying degrees demography began to venture out of its own territory and open up to the major issues of society, to other disciplines: into fields that had once belonged moving development demand and poverty), and development), poverty gender (population (demography and environment and health environment), population), (gender (population etc. not to mention and reproduction, ageing and AIDS. This brou sexuality, a new Itwas also a about of among degree specialization ght demographers. change (Courgeau 1997): for example, from focusing period of methodological on aggregate analysis (1950s and 1960s), then individual (1970s and analysis in into the other moved multi-level with 1980s), demography step analysis,
social sciences.

of change, consequences (we will return to this point

At the start of the twenty-first is still a long river, century, demography a more one. The discipline but much broader, and many-branched tumultuous is challenged with from within, the outside world; some and in competition even see it as under threat. What are its assets and achievements? are What I shall only consider fairly general observations its weaknesses and constraints? or questions Some of that arise from recent research or my own questioning. more so at to level local conclusions need be because, perhaps my qualified status in and other the institutional than history, place of demography disciplines, vary enormously from one part of the world to another, and even from one country to another, including within Europe(9).

in 62 the World the two major international (7) Including programmes: Fertility Survey (1975-82, and Health Surveys since 1985 (around 210 surveys in 74 Southern and the Demographic countries) to date). countries (8) Sometimes called "population studies" in English. and L. Roussel, (edited by J.C. Chasteland since 1945 (Canada, France, Hungary,

the INED 50th anniversary publication (9) See, for example, of seven countries the experience 1997), which compares United Kingdom, United States and USSR). Netherlands,

17 I

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D. Tabutin

II. Achievements

and assets

of demography
science, admired and sometimes has undergone methodological It also trains people explanation.

is an independent social Demography feared; it has opened up to new questions, turned towards change, and has gradually
to become demographers. Let us examine

these

various

points.

social Called

science

a "wild frontier science" (science sauvage) by Alfred Sauvy in 1945, recently a "hostage science" (science otage) by Michel Loriaux (1996), has certainly become a science in the true sense of the word, with demography and more its body of research objects, methods and paradigms (I will return to this there is most agreement, below). This is probably one of the points on which even if the word "science" does not always appear in the definitions (often science" is sometimes used, replaced by "discipline"). The term "demographic or more broadly, that of "population is not, or is no science"(10). Demography rates. for computing longer, simply a technique Its objects of study (the behaviour of human populations from individual to society level) put demography even the social sciences, if statistics, among even if of the discipline, biology and public health are integral components or demography come from varied academic back demographers practitioners In most universities in the world, to is attached demography grounds(11). or mean not faculties of economics, sciences. social But does this that political within the official typologies of social sciences it is specific to each country as a as case is the for separate always discipline, recognized sociology, anthropology or political science.

A largely independent
Demography and production soon

discipline

a specific for its scientific acquired organization as a reflection of its status as a science. Virtually teaching, from the outset(12), it spawned its own international association (IUSSP in 1928) and scholarly journals (Population Index in 1933, Genus in 1934, Population in 1945, Population Studies in 1947)(13). Illustrating both the discipline's vitality across the world, and the diverse range of problems the 1970s and 1980s saw

(10) For example, and development studies.

in 1992, the Catholic University an institute sciences comprising

of Louvain of demography

set up a department of population and an institute of development (Algeria, D.R. Congo, until 2003 and Italy,

(11) Apart from a few countries where demography etc.) or is taught in a specific scientific department and often sociology in the United States). (12) For a much more detailed history, see Maffioli (13) Followed by other journals such Review in 1974, etc. and Development as Demography

is a separate graduate degree in Morocco (such as statistics

(2006b). in 1964, Demography India in 1973, Population

18

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Whither

Demography?

a blossoming and national

of associations, levels.

congresses

and reviews(14)

at both

} regional

in North America and Europe in the 1950s University teaching developed to another, with and above all the 1960s, in varied forms from one country or taught as in curricula (United States) incorporated demography sociology etc.)- In the South, (France, Belgium, Canada, graduate courses were set under the impetus of programmes up, notably independent quickly the United Nations Division At and UNFPA(16). present, most Population countries in Asia and Latin America offer master's degrees in formal demography or population PhD courses likewise. studies, and, increasingly, specialized over
we

This scientific, institutional and sometimes financial independence, achieved too much difficulty, has many advantages, but also, as the years without
shall see, disadvantages.

Rigorous methodology
(and simplistic) dichotomy between "hard" and "soft" is the hardest of the social sciences, concerned sciences, demography undeniably with and standards for essentially quantification applying strict methodological both data collection and analysis. It is an inductive science, sometimes described as formal or empirical, that does not burden itself with discourse, uncertainty or rash interpretation. As Preston (1993, p.594) puts it:
"In part most social because of their of on social careful closeness scientists, measurement to data focused inductive scientists are the production, demographers to a greater extent than other and cautious interpretation."

Ifwe

take the habitual

Similarly,

Caldwell
will

(1996, p. 333) wrote:


remain because of its approach: its discipline with in observable and testable data keeping as as to elicit data be used their shrewdly possibly the study should be representative or of sizeable be in populations." a distinct

"Demography demand that the real world,

conclusions that and these that

real meanings, significant and

definable

social sciences and humanities, the perception of to another, or even, within a varies from one discipline demography discipline, to another. Often misunderstood from one researcher (see below), genuinely in its interpretations, cautious is admired by some rigor-ous, demography Among while inspiring fear and scepticism in others.

the other

(14) CICRED's partly devoted

Revue des revues d?mographiques to demography

in 2003

lists nearly

75 journals

in the world

wholly

or

in 1983 of the EAPS (European Association the creation for Population (15) For example, Studies) with its own journal (European Journal oj Population) and congresses, and in 1984 UAPS (Union for African Population Studies) with African Population Studies.. in 1956, CELADE five regional research and teaching institutions: IPPS inMumbai (16) Particularly in 1957, CDC in Cairo in 1963, RIPS in Accra in 1971 and IFORD in Yaounde in 1972. in

Santiago

19

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D. Tabutin

Recent

new

research

themes

there is no doubt that, like all scientific disciplines, Likewise, demography is evolving. Some would say it is adapting, others would say it as progressing. It has opened up its objects and its lines of research (asmentioned above), and its methods and of data collection and analysis. Demography demographers today are no longer what they used to be. The D?mographie 2000 survey (Chasteland et al., 2004) analyses the reasons The development themselves. for these changes as stated by "demographers" are data and of computer of micro-longitudinal by far the most technologies use from the theories and followed of techniques by frequently mentioned, other in demographic and progress analysis. disciplines, to external is of due more than "progress" demography the Ultimately, internal factors.

Regarding

in 2000, the fields of interest still ranks first (36% of fertility of ahead and the family, responses), clearly mortality-morbidity, nuptiality internal and international migration. Loriaux (2004, p. 161) comments:
"In short, qualitative we may change by demographers, are limited or a revolution and do not involve changes upheaval an to in the of the discipline, but rather adaptation changes context." say that over in the themes time there has been both addressed quantitative but that and these

in the content environmental

as having reported by the researchers find, unsurprisingly, ageing, population in the the of the role of women, South, greater rapid growth development international migration, low fertility in the North and AIDS. As yet, the impact Among influenced phenomena their research work, we the social on research of environmental has been and globalization A broader range issues, limited. unemployment, new forms of poverty

of quantitative

tools

Traditional demographic analysis remains a key tool in the demographer's kit: it marries well with standard information systems and can be used to measure population dynamics at aggregate level. Its quest for rigour is legitimate; is still useful and often essential. And for thirty years it the Lexis diagram But demography sealed the reputation of the "French school of demography". in the absence of is no longer only a technique for research into phenomena its field of investigation risk. It has extended from the macro competing on gaining to the and period micro-longitudinal, placed greater emphasis new insight (see next section) by devising or using more complex information
systems.

As a result, it now uses many statistical often borrowed from outside(17) analysis,

tools other than simple demographic and adapted to its needs, with no

(17) Tools such as log-linear and multi-level before they were adopted by demographers.

models

were

used

in sociology,

psychology

and economics

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Whither

Demography?

great creativity

of its own,

inmy

opinion(18).

In this respect

it is far from being

fully independent. This change in the "techniques of demography"(19) has been clearly apparent in the last fifteen years in both publications and teaching. Many demography curricula have been recently revised and now often include more hours of
statistics or even new specific courses on multivariate analysis, multi-level

Is demography analysis and event history analysis. science? and statistical purely quantitative Growing Although concern long for how considered and why to be a science

becoming

(once more)

a purely of measurement, nor to able neither discipline willing provide descriptive explanations, now increasingly seeks to understand and collective individual demography is a major one. The individual, This recent change in perspective behaviour. is no longer seen as a simple for example, trajectory made up of distinct life-course events, each analysed separately, but as a complex event various interconnected of types comprising occupational, (demographic, residential, etc.), a life of stages and periods with variable causalities(20). From we have moved on to a the demographic "explaining" by the demographic, multi-factorial approach giving full place to the family, to the social circle and to social, economic and cultural factors. We are still a long way from networks, demographic an explanatory science (see below) but real progress has been achieved.

A profession
"Demographer" is now a profession, rather as demography is a science. It

is that of a researcher or professional whose specific or main activity consists of teaching or addressing with the apposite technical questions, population and theoretical skills (taught or acquired). This is a wide definition, without restrictive criteria (such as specific qualifications) come because demographers from a wide,
"Specialists

and widening,
in population

range of academic
questions" recognise

backgrounds(21).
themselves as a profession(22),

and increasing numbers their classifications^.

of academic But,

and research

bodies

include

the term in is often

like demography

itself,

the profession

shared by Alain Blum (18) A rather radical personal opinion, statistics and demography between (Blum 1997, pp.266-270). (19) Or rather, perhaps, statistical behind

in his

examination

of

the relations

(20) This is the philosophy recent years. (21) Although Then two-thirds came sociology,

techniques applied to demography. event the numerous longitudinal

history

surveys did have

conducted

in

degree.

in the D?mographie 2000 survey of the respondents and history statistics, economics, geography

a demography

as "demographers". defined themselves survey, 67% of respondents a to are often classed under is there (and demographers) (23) However, go: demography long way or even wider categories in In many countries, (as etc.), statistics, (France, Italy). sociology Belgium, is still not listed in the official socio-occupational nomenclature. "demographer" (22) For example, in the 2000

21

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D. Tabutin

unfamiliar Overall, fast),


We in nature.

to the general

public is growing youthful,

and

the profession more becoming


(24) . to less now turn

or its role misunderstood. the media, in numbers I cannot say how (although in the younger and more feminized
less certain, and more controversial

generations

positive

aspects,

III.Demography's

weaknesses

and constraints

certainly has its assets and strengths, but it also suffers from Demography constraints and weaknesses that vary in nature and intensity from one region or country to another. Iwill examine only those I see as most important, most a in the short or those that may pose "threat" to the discipline universal,
medium term.

Relative Often

isolation independent and methods,

among

the

social

sciences terms, with concerned with its own specific

in institutional and still

or academic

objects social change(25), demography social sciences. Some would a growing There is admittedly

insufficiently understanding tends to be intellectually isolated among the even say that it has retreated behind its walls. but this is still not with other
comes borders

degree of interdisciplinarity, the prime characteristic of demographers; their dialogue can be difficult. In Roussel's (2004, p. 239): opinion
"A major obstacle of retrenchment to forming the Faced syndrome.

sciences
from a sort other

of demography identity to define with the need

with

scientific fields, demographers prefer to hide behind aMaginot


the risk of interdisciplinary contamination."

line tominimize

This and
sciences.

isolation

specialized,

can be found too in teaching, where curricula are specific to other social with no great interdisciplinary opening

A "small" discipline
In most
university

countries,
teams that

demography
are small or

has developed
even tiny(26),

and operates
with fewer

in centres

or
and

researchers

(24) For example, 54% of PAA members still clearly in the majority (63% in the the proportion of women is rising: from it was 54% at the latter date). members al. in their analysis of the contents some variations between (25) With to the CICRED

in 2004, but in many other associations men are IUSSP in 2004, 66% in AIDELF). However, within the IUSSP, 31% in 1999 to 35% in 2003 and 37% in 2005 (among student This feminization of research was from 1964 pointed to 1992. up by Teachman et

were women

of the journal Demography regions and countries.

(26) According and only 20% have researchers, and the Max (Paris), NIDI (The Hague)

database 12 or more.

half the centres (2003, p.30), There are, of course, some major Planck Institute (Rostock).

listed

have

fewer

exceptions,

than 6 such as INED

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Whither

Demography?

students

than

other

social

sciences,

and

consequently

fewer

resources

and

less room for manoeuvre.


says: "Demography and always

Even

in the United

States,

as Preston
in academic

(1993, p. 595)
bureaucracies

is a small in need

discipline lacking of a raison d'?tre."

security

research
lining"

are not everything, but they can help in negotiating Of course, numbers or student places or in raising funds. At a time of budget "stream
and restriction, as is the case today, "small" entities are vulnerable,

is indeed under and demography creation of international doctoral does not resolve Demography's Relatively all the problems. fragmentation isolated and small,

threat

in some places. Networking and the as now in is the fashion schools, Europe,

is also gradually becoming demography nor not is inside. This from limited to new, compartmentalized fragmented, our in acute not it is but and without my opinion particularly discipline(28), recent on In their of research, Poirier report danger. thirty years demography a and Pich? make clear distinction various between (1999) types of between objects of research, levels of analysis, compartmentalization: currents and demographic critical theoretical factors, production
us examine the first.

explanatory centres. Let

at the start by traditional mainly or unconcerned with demographic largely comprehension analysis(29), we a on to have moved number of explanation, demographic "sub-disciplines", a breakdown of demography into separate fields or issues, and greater From analytical demography, controlled Each major field (fertility, mortality, etc.) or issue specialization. migration, its own health, ageing, etc.) now has its own specialists, (family, education, tools (for data collection and analysis), and explanatory paradigms. The process even within is continuing a individual in addition, fields or topics(30) with, between North and South. gulf This fragmentation is perhaps necessary, or may well be inherent to progress in scientific knowledge, but it is not free of risk: it causes a fragmentation of favours the analytical and neglects knowledge, approach over the systemic, are the interactions that and complexity part of any social system, in terms of are A number of recent approaches(31) both measurement and explanation. but this is far from enough. opening up new perspectives,

(27) This naturally

varies by type and level of course, this problem world.

but rarely exceeds

thirty.

(28) Edgar Morin long ago deplored (29) At least in the French-speaking

in all sciences.

into child mortality, divided (30) An example of a field might be mortality, oldest-old mortality, with some specialists focusing on the North and others (31) Such as the life-event history approach already mentioned.

adult mortality, on the South.

and now

23 ?

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D. T?butin

Insufficient

progress

in explanation

or a discipline to be complete, to deserve the status of a measure not but also understand (how) and explain science, only in the last twenty years or has made definite progress (why)(32). Demography so: it is opening up, or attempting to open up, to the explanation of the social so well. But this is happening it already quantifies phenomena slowly and it must the image of demography is any clear priority(33). Overall, cautiously, without that of a science which is good at measuring, at ex but poor or unreliable (de Bruyn, 1999; Burch, 1999; Tabutin, 1999). Progress in explanation plaining and theorization is real for fertility, but much less so for mortality and
migration.

For a science

The debate
is not a new one;

on the place
it is more or

of explanatory
less recurrent(34).

or causal
Some

research
observers

in demography
see demography

as being restricted to the analytical, which was originally its strength, but is now a serious handicap (Loriaux 1996). Others argue that "demography does not, in general, deserve to be qualified as theoretically weak" (Poirier and Pich? research has faced many obstacles, 1999, p.42), but do recognize that explanatory to the due of Let us merely point out the discipline. particularly fragmentation that multivariate
a preliminary

statistical
stage.

analysis

is not sufficient

for explanation;

it is only

rather

In fact, there is still the risk that will remain "a technique demography to others than a science" (Livi-Bacci, 1984), leaving basic explanation to to economists and health sciences, fertility (migration geographers, mortality to sociologists and anthropologists). is short on theoretical and Demography debate. ideological discreet Despite a science? a certain

Too

is progress and diversity across the world, demography understood both its fellow disciplines and (misunderstood?) generally poorly by the world of politics and the media. It is often lacking in public visibility at every level (central government, and suffers regions, local authorities andbusinesses(35)), . from insufficient dissemination and awareness of its research Demography has not yet fully emerged from its ivory tower, a position which offers freedom to think but also creates a risk of social and political irrelevance.
(32) Consequently, is the descriptive determined a possible definition of demography would be: "the social science and explanatory and dynamics of spatially study of the structures human populations". whose object or culturally

to have been specifically devoted (33) One need only note how few sessions at recent major congresses theories or explanation. Or again the little space given to these topics in many study curricula. need theory" (Wunsch (34) "is theory for demographers?" (Vance 1952); "Why demographers 1995). a form of applied as business known is now developing, (35) Although demography, demography in the United States. notably to the rule, such as the there are some fine exceptions (36) Fortunately Population on the world in France, or the exhibition held in Paris in 2005. population and Societies journal

24

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Whither

Demography?

This is probably due to the very nature of the discipline: is a demography more science of knowledge than of action. It does provide valuable information to support decision-making but it covers long-term trends rather processes, than topical events,
response times, and

requires research

complex
are

information
cautious. In

systems
this

and relatively
it has more

long
to

its diagnoses

respect

than applied research. Some observers criticize its insufficient (or tardy) engagement with the great contemporary challenges etc.), globalization, facing the world and its societies (poverty, environment, in public debate, its absence of political commitment(37). its lack of involvement Loriaux (1996) goes so far as to call it a "sanitized discipline".

do with

fundamental

IV.Potential
Iwill
future of

risks
most debated, central to the within

examine
demography,

only
and

those
related

that are currently


to our above

remarks:

compartmentalization,

excessive
universities.

quantification,

explanation

left to others,

and fragile position

Compartmentalization a strong identity, based on objects still has, in my opinion, Demography as useful and effective. But some observers are and tools that are recognized are concerned by the processes of specialization that currently at work in both research and teaching(38). An extreme scenario might be a "disintegration" of are a to sector into branches that disparate demography particular specific (reproduction, graphy, positive demo etc.), discipline (health, economic or seen as the This be etc.) may region. demographic anthropology, as effect of greater the advance of interaction, interdisciplinary migration, ageing,

as the risk of a loss of identity, or into other fields, or conversely demography as a retreat from the prime object of demography: the study of complete again and systems in their spatial and temporal diversity. The analytical demographic to the thus be would Object fragmented approach strengthened. Towards "statistical extremism"? focusing on individual traditional statistical behaviour, demography was and demographic analysis. in statistical analysis was key to is to slip you can't the most

destined

Like other disciplines to move beyond

recent trends Taking on board the most in But this the danger, in research and teaching, progress respect. into a sort of statistical extremism (almost an intellectual terrorism): a or be do demography without using (or obtaining) demographer
(37) In the 2000 but more stated of respondents survey, one-third as individuals than as demographers. of research centres and teaching that they "wanted

to take part

in political in targeted

debate",

(38) Growing themes.

numbers

programmes

are specializing

25 ?

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D. Tabutin

"state-of-the-art" toolkit(39). Already perceived as (too?) quantitative, sophisticated, the discipline would become even less comprehensible, forfeiting the opportunity to develop a more open, social or qualitative form of demography. Leaving explanation to others?

now

on the place of research is among demographers explanatory For one side, demography is progressing, up to other opening use concerned with theorization and the of more disciplines, increasingly advanced data and tools. The other side (including me) sees demography as The debate open. when it comes to understanding are made, it is often by advances
economists, etc.). In other

time(40) and still just as hesitant marking and ex-plaining. And when fundamental
outsiders (sociologists, historians,

anthropologists,

faces "competition" on its own ground. If it cannot explain words, demography better using its own resources, it runs the risk of gradually leaving a key feature of all science - insight - in the hands of others, and thereby losing its credibility.

Is university

demography

losing steam?

are the main venue for the world, universities Throughout demographic research and teaching, which is either institutionally independent or incorporated with another disciplined The situation naturally varies from one country to or even threatened another, but demography teaching is often made vulnerable reasons: for various the small size of the teaching centres(42), the marginal status of demography with respect to other disciplines ,fierce competition with similar courses if funding and posts are pared down, a strongly quantitativist in career terms. In many the future of image, and poor visibility places, is in uncertain, university demography increasingly Europe where including
major reforms are under way(44). The risks, already upon us, are the disappear

ance
research.

of established of competent

courses, young

fewer

students

in this field for both

shortage

demographers

a and, ultimately, and applied fundamental

(39) This programmes. (40) Rather

process

can

be

seen

at work

in

the

content

of major

journals

and

recent

teaching

as is happening

in other

social

sciences.

to the CICRED there are 329 university centres in the world. This (41) According (2004) inventory includes regional training centres in developing countries, usually funded by international organizations and attached to universities. those structures that are institutionally (42) Particularly independent. (43) It is often only an adjunct to courses in other subjects. (44) What will be the place of demography in the new European 3-5-8 system (BA, MA, PhD)?

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Whither

Demography?

V.Whither and whither


Almost

demography demographers?

of demography has all demographers agree that the science or so in its the last twenty years, improving original considerably changed new methodological in measurement), expertise developing (particularly its research (micro, longitudinal, multi-level, etc.), and diversifying approaches a as to I I it remains uncertainties But number of have shown, topics. subject hope and perhaps even diversion. and suffers from inadequacies and constraints, the of is and the discipline the debate (its identity However, open perception to another. and future) varies from one region, country, school and individual even speaking are pleased with of a "new Some observers these changes, about the future; others (including me) are more and optimistic demography", some are seriously themselves while and are asking questions, and its institutions. about the future of the discipline The history of every science has its ups and downs, periods of certainty as such is not yet under threat by and periods of questioning. Demography seems a to at it but be any means, turning point in its history, as it faces the world's major social and economic problems, new social and political demands and "competition" from neighbouring often against a backdrop of sciences, doubtful, concerned public funding for research and teaching. It seems tome that three aspects of the discipline need to be strengthened: ;2) its social and political utility; and 3) its public 1) its identity or specificity If this does not happen, demography is likely to remain what it is visibility. now:
to

limited

a fascinating small discipline that is rather isolated and marginalized, disconnected the from realities of the world, and offering a safe haven relatively
its practitioners.

of imperative relevant to both research and requirements(45), to contribute One these teaching, goals. imagine: might a more social, rather less analytical^ demography, giving greater priority to the social, economic causes and consequences and political of change, to could
their understanding, and to the interrelations between social subsystems, etc.

A number

This does not involve quantification alone. an explanatory demography: despite some
remains and is perceived as an essentially

real progress(47),
science,

demography
a science of

descriptive

its identity and independence, numbers. To underpin itmust venture to explain and concern itself more with the reasons why changes occur. Congresses and

in our discipline the world, although (45) Fairly general because, here again, situations vary throughout the United dominance of the North, the scientific of the countries States, (and financial) especially remains strong. (46) To use (47) Often this old, and rather brusque disconnected and individual. dichotomy, because I could not find a better one.

27 |

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D. Tabutin

study curricula
debate.

should give much more

space to theories,

causality

and ideational

a more qualitative demography: the qualitative approach is virtually absent from teaching programmes, and has never really found a place in the discipline, out of ignorance, fear or even rejection on the part of the dominant quantitativists. The point is not to "dilute" the methodology of demography but to strengthen itwith approaches better suited to the study of the perceptions, strategies and that underlie rationales individual and collective demographic behaviour. The is essential for explanation(48). qualitative a demography more the many key socio-political issues of engaged with the world,
exclusion,

in both North
poverty,

and South,

from local
development,

to international
violence, etc.

levels: social
In general,

environment,

have played little part in this, or have done so only recently. Yet demographers when is often valued(49). As stated by Lassonde they do, their contribution its dimension (1996, p.177): "By confining object of study to the microsocial of reproduction, is incapable of providing the enlightenment demography essential indicating a demography to defining the issues of the modern the appropriate solutions". world, and consequently of

have direct taught differently: all the above suggestions the for the of textbook (course structure, implications teaching discipline is which diversified Let the world. content, teaching style), highly throughout us mention a to few which used could be shift from only major principles(50) a rather "abstract" to a more lively, more practical and probably demography more attractive demography: 1) integrate "techniques" and "explanatory factors" rather than teach them in separate courses(51); 2) give greater weight to theories and conceptual illustrations of the history frameworks; 3) stress the practical of change exercises,
methods.

in the world;

the computer tools needed for application 4) develop for simulation in data collection and for error testing and

Concluding

remarks

is not, inmy opinion, an interdisciplinary science or a bridge Demography nor an between the social and natural sciences, to discipline interdiscipline, used. It is a science in its own right which, quote some of the terms sometimes by choice or necessity, has adapted to change and opened up to other disciplines. A danger, often mentioned, would be, as Roussel (1997, p. 27) states, "for it to
to teach, or be competent in all the methodologies (48) It is impossible could imagine amore even balance between qualitativist demographers, and quantitativist concerned with measurement. demographers, (49) This (50) On is true in the environmental of the social concerned with sciences, but one

understanding,

field for example. issue of teaching, see, for example, the report of the IUSSP working the texts by Burch and Palloni in the special issue of Genus. 2002), and particularly in Europe and North America. (51) As is the case with many courses and textbooks the major

group

(Caselli

4 28

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Whither

Demography?

become once more, a multiple, protean auxiliary


not

in away

that is different no

science

with discipline or support discipline

but just as marked as at the outset, A sort of identity or independence". for the others. The risk exists but it is

inescapable.

from within, assailed from without, doubtless stands at demography a turning point in its history. Its future will largely depend on its ability to that will inevitably adapt and respond to the new social and political demands to at its sell and achieve all levels. arise, greater visibility "products" Torn

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in European

Population,

<

30

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Whither

Demography?

Abbreviations
AIDELF (in Cairo) CELADE CICRED CDC Association Internationale des D?mographes de Langue Fran?aise Cairo Demographic Centre Centro Latinoamericano de Demograf?a y Caribe?o in National in Demography Committee for International Research Cooperation Association de Formation Union Institut Studies for Population et de Recherches D?mographiques for the Scientific Study of Population Institute

EAPS European IFORD IUSSP

International NIDI Netherlands PAA Population

Interdisciplinary Demographic Association of America for Population Studies Studies Fund

RIPS UNFPA

(in Accra)

Institute Regional for African UAPS Union United Nations

Population

Population

Dominique Belgium,

Institut de d?mographie, Tabutin, e-mail: tabutin@demo.ucl.ac.be

Universit?

catholique

de Louvain,

Louvain-la-Neuve,

31

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