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Strengths and Weaknesses of the Discipline over Fifty Years of Change Author(s): Dominique Tabutin and Roger Depledge Source: Population (English Edition, 2002-), Vol. 62, No. 1 (2007), pp. 15-31 Published by: Institut National d'tudes Dmographiques Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/27645290 . Accessed: 07/03/2014 03:07
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Dominique
Tabutin*
to recount. In over half a century, the discipline has developed, has a history of research and in its teaching, both in terms of its themes and instruments following different pathways and advancing at different speeds from continent to continent and country to country. What stage has the science of demography reached it reached today? What a turning is its place in social sciences research and teaching? Has and its social and of its scientific visibility point? What we one or several its Are What of future? towards utility? moving
political forms of demography? These general questions, both wide-ranging and complex, will be addressed as I examine what 1 consider to be the discipline's assets and strengths, its one to a weaknesses and constraints certain (variable from another) and region Iwill end with a number of short- and medium-term risks and imperatives.
few suggestions. These questions are not new ones, or indeed specific to our
own discipline, attention at this time. but they are worthy of particular is based on the findings of recent seminars and publications The discussion devoted to the history, current situation and future of demography(1), analysis of the content the findings of major conferences, on the IUSSP group teaching from 1997 to 2002), of working groups (such as recent and major surveys of
Institute
of Demography,
Catholic
University
of Louvain
(Belgium)
Translated
Chair of the Institute of (such as the 2002 Quetelet (1) Often professors "Entre nature et culture :quelle(s) d?mo graphie (s) ?", of Louvain, of the Catholic University Demography of journals (Demography's 30th in 1993, Population Loriaux and Vilquin (eds.), 2006), the anniversaries in 1997 of Les contours Studies' 40th in 1996) or institutions (INED s 50th in 1995, with the publication de la d?mographie au seuil du xxf si?cle, Editions de l'INED, 435 p.).
Population-E,
62
(1), 2007,
15-32
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?.
Tabutin
demographers(2)
own personal demography,
and research
institutions
around
in a
the world(3).
university population
It includes my
institute questions of in
European on mainly
countries
nor totally
therefore be neither
comprehensive
river:
or forty years ago, was a clearly delimited demography terms in its defined of and Its essential precisely topics methodology. thirty
structures by age, sex and marital status, fertility, mortality and
its basic tools were standard demographic internal migration; statistics; most of its data came from administrative elementary
systems (civil records, censuses, the occasional register)(4). We
and growth rates, described levels and trends, we projected (as phenomena best we could), and worked mainly at aggregate level. This can be seen inmany of the definitions of demography that were given in those days. Here are just
a few examples(5). H?user and Duncan (1959): "Demography of population, is the changes study therein, of the and size, territorial
and composition
the components
changes." (1949): "Demography concerns are processes growth." (1969): of human "Demography populations." is the empirical, statistical and mathematical of is the quantitative of human study populations. the measurement and discovery in of uniformities human movement and birth, death, population
Demographic
Dictionary
(1958): "Demography
respect to their the quantitative
of human study populations structure and their development; their general characteristics."
During
as teaching
international
and new
created
schools
of thought
emerged
.National
and international
funding
increased,
the first Internet survey in 2000 of demographers worldwide (2) Particularly (637 respondents), their training and careers, etc. The results were their vision of demography, research, in 2004 (D?mographie 2000. Une enqu?te internationale par Internet published aupr?s des d?mographes, 368 p.). Louvain-la-Neuve, Academia/Bruylant, concerning in particular dans d?mographique (3) See the CICRED lemonde, 2003 et scientifique institutionnel paper, Panorama the activities of 499 centres world-wide. in countries of the North and South were de la recherche
presenting national
the first major (4) Although the 1950s and 1960s. (5) Others may be found
carried
out
in
in Caldwell American,
(1993).
16
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Whither
Demography?
and South, with a clear priority given to fertility. Surveys became the preferred data collection method almost everywhere, especially in developing countries(7). At the same time, computer technology developed rapidly and was in made considerable progress analysis (biographical approaches, models, was a time revision of theories. This also debate and of indirect methods, etc.). as a statistical or (known variously analytical, formal demography Alongside in both North mathematical) focusing more there developed on the social, amore multi-disciplinary social demographyC8), causes and and cultural economic, political in other w7ords, to understand and explain aiming,
(1970 below). Nevertheless, during that period research objects that 1985) there was no major change in the clearly distinct were the standard components of population dynamics. Towards the end of the 1980s and in the 1990s, demographers' scope and areas of interest became more diversified under the pressure of facts (much of social and political the world was faced with crises and their consequences), for and sometimes (national or international) funding requirements the institutions of created. With inertia, varying degrees demography began to venture out of its own territory and open up to the major issues of society, to other disciplines: into fields that had once belonged moving development demand and poverty), and development), poverty gender (population (demography and environment and health environment), population), (gender (population etc. not to mention and reproduction, ageing and AIDS. This brou sexuality, a new Itwas also a about of among degree specialization ght demographers. change (Courgeau 1997): for example, from focusing period of methodological on aggregate analysis (1950s and 1960s), then individual (1970s and analysis in into the other moved multi-level with 1980s), demography step analysis,
social sciences.
At the start of the twenty-first is still a long river, century, demography a more one. The discipline but much broader, and many-branched tumultuous is challenged with from within, the outside world; some and in competition even see it as under threat. What are its assets and achievements? are What I shall only consider fairly general observations its weaknesses and constraints? or questions Some of that arise from recent research or my own questioning. more so at to level local conclusions need be because, perhaps my qualified status in and other the institutional than history, place of demography disciplines, vary enormously from one part of the world to another, and even from one country to another, including within Europe(9).
in 62 the World the two major international (7) Including programmes: Fertility Survey (1975-82, and Health Surveys since 1985 (around 210 surveys in 74 Southern and the Demographic countries) to date). countries (8) Sometimes called "population studies" in English. and L. Roussel, (edited by J.C. Chasteland since 1945 (Canada, France, Hungary,
the INED 50th anniversary publication (9) See, for example, of seven countries the experience 1997), which compares United Kingdom, United States and USSR). Netherlands,
17 I
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D. Tabutin
II. Achievements
and assets
of demography
science, admired and sometimes has undergone methodological It also trains people explanation.
is an independent social Demography feared; it has opened up to new questions, turned towards change, and has gradually
to become demographers. Let us examine
these
various
points.
social Called
science
a "wild frontier science" (science sauvage) by Alfred Sauvy in 1945, recently a "hostage science" (science otage) by Michel Loriaux (1996), has certainly become a science in the true sense of the word, with demography and more its body of research objects, methods and paradigms (I will return to this there is most agreement, below). This is probably one of the points on which even if the word "science" does not always appear in the definitions (often science" is sometimes used, replaced by "discipline"). The term "demographic or more broadly, that of "population is not, or is no science"(10). Demography rates. for computing longer, simply a technique Its objects of study (the behaviour of human populations from individual to society level) put demography even the social sciences, if statistics, among even if of the discipline, biology and public health are integral components or demography come from varied academic back demographers practitioners In most universities in the world, to is attached demography grounds(11). or mean not faculties of economics, sciences. social But does this that political within the official typologies of social sciences it is specific to each country as a as case is the for separate always discipline, recognized sociology, anthropology or political science.
A largely independent
Demography and production soon
discipline
a specific for its scientific acquired organization as a reflection of its status as a science. Virtually teaching, from the outset(12), it spawned its own international association (IUSSP in 1928) and scholarly journals (Population Index in 1933, Genus in 1934, Population in 1945, Population Studies in 1947)(13). Illustrating both the discipline's vitality across the world, and the diverse range of problems the 1970s and 1980s saw
of Louvain of demography
set up a department of population and an institute of development (Algeria, D.R. Congo, until 2003 and Italy,
(11) Apart from a few countries where demography etc.) or is taught in a specific scientific department and often sociology in the United States). (12) For a much more detailed history, see Maffioli (13) Followed by other journals such Review in 1974, etc. and Development as Demography
18
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Whither
Demography?
of associations, levels.
congresses
and reviews(14)
at both
} regional
in North America and Europe in the 1950s University teaching developed to another, with and above all the 1960s, in varied forms from one country or taught as in curricula (United States) incorporated demography sociology etc.)- In the South, (France, Belgium, Canada, graduate courses were set under the impetus of programmes up, notably independent quickly the United Nations Division At and UNFPA(16). present, most Population countries in Asia and Latin America offer master's degrees in formal demography or population PhD courses likewise. studies, and, increasingly, specialized over
we
This scientific, institutional and sometimes financial independence, achieved too much difficulty, has many advantages, but also, as the years without
shall see, disadvantages.
Rigorous methodology
(and simplistic) dichotomy between "hard" and "soft" is the hardest of the social sciences, concerned sciences, demography undeniably with and standards for essentially quantification applying strict methodological both data collection and analysis. It is an inductive science, sometimes described as formal or empirical, that does not burden itself with discourse, uncertainty or rash interpretation. As Preston (1993, p.594) puts it:
"In part most social because of their of on social careful closeness scientists, measurement to data focused inductive scientists are the production, demographers to a greater extent than other and cautious interpretation."
Ifwe
Similarly,
Caldwell
will
definable
social sciences and humanities, the perception of to another, or even, within a varies from one discipline demography discipline, to another. Often misunderstood from one researcher (see below), genuinely in its interpretations, cautious is admired by some rigor-ous, demography Among while inspiring fear and scepticism in others.
the other
in 2003
lists nearly
75 journals
in the world
wholly
or
in 1983 of the EAPS (European Association the creation for Population (15) For example, Studies) with its own journal (European Journal oj Population) and congresses, and in 1984 UAPS (Union for African Population Studies) with African Population Studies.. in 1956, CELADE five regional research and teaching institutions: IPPS inMumbai (16) Particularly in 1957, CDC in Cairo in 1963, RIPS in Accra in 1971 and IFORD in Yaounde in 1972. in
Santiago
19
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D. Tabutin
Recent
new
research
themes
there is no doubt that, like all scientific disciplines, Likewise, demography is evolving. Some would say it is adapting, others would say it as progressing. It has opened up its objects and its lines of research (asmentioned above), and its methods and of data collection and analysis. Demography demographers today are no longer what they used to be. The D?mographie 2000 survey (Chasteland et al., 2004) analyses the reasons The development themselves. for these changes as stated by "demographers" are data and of computer of micro-longitudinal by far the most technologies use from the theories and followed of techniques by frequently mentioned, other in demographic and progress analysis. disciplines, to external is of due more than "progress" demography the Ultimately, internal factors.
Regarding
in 2000, the fields of interest still ranks first (36% of fertility of ahead and the family, responses), clearly mortality-morbidity, nuptiality internal and international migration. Loriaux (2004, p. 161) comments:
"In short, qualitative we may change by demographers, are limited or a revolution and do not involve changes upheaval an to in the of the discipline, but rather adaptation changes context." say that over in the themes time there has been both addressed quantitative but that and these
as having reported by the researchers find, unsurprisingly, ageing, population in the the of the role of women, South, greater rapid growth development international migration, low fertility in the North and AIDS. As yet, the impact Among influenced phenomena their research work, we the social on research of environmental has been and globalization A broader range issues, limited. unemployment, new forms of poverty
of quantitative
tools
Traditional demographic analysis remains a key tool in the demographer's kit: it marries well with standard information systems and can be used to measure population dynamics at aggregate level. Its quest for rigour is legitimate; is still useful and often essential. And for thirty years it the Lexis diagram But demography sealed the reputation of the "French school of demography". in the absence of is no longer only a technique for research into phenomena its field of investigation risk. It has extended from the macro competing on gaining to the and period micro-longitudinal, placed greater emphasis new insight (see next section) by devising or using more complex information
systems.
As a result, it now uses many statistical often borrowed from outside(17) analysis,
tools other than simple demographic and adapted to its needs, with no
(17) Tools such as log-linear and multi-level before they were adopted by demographers.
models
were
used
in sociology,
psychology
and economics
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Whither
Demography?
great creativity
of its own,
inmy
opinion(18).
In this respect
fully independent. This change in the "techniques of demography"(19) has been clearly apparent in the last fifteen years in both publications and teaching. Many demography curricula have been recently revised and now often include more hours of
statistics or even new specific courses on multivariate analysis, multi-level
Is demography analysis and event history analysis. science? and statistical purely quantitative Growing Although concern long for how considered and why to be a science
becoming
(once more)
a purely of measurement, nor to able neither discipline willing provide descriptive explanations, now increasingly seeks to understand and collective individual demography is a major one. The individual, This recent change in perspective behaviour. is no longer seen as a simple for example, trajectory made up of distinct life-course events, each analysed separately, but as a complex event various interconnected of types comprising occupational, (demographic, residential, etc.), a life of stages and periods with variable causalities(20). From we have moved on to a the demographic "explaining" by the demographic, multi-factorial approach giving full place to the family, to the social circle and to social, economic and cultural factors. We are still a long way from networks, demographic an explanatory science (see below) but real progress has been achieved.
A profession
"Demographer" is now a profession, rather as demography is a science. It
is that of a researcher or professional whose specific or main activity consists of teaching or addressing with the apposite technical questions, population and theoretical skills (taught or acquired). This is a wide definition, without restrictive criteria (such as specific qualifications) come because demographers from a wide,
"Specialists
and widening,
in population
range of academic
questions" recognise
backgrounds(21).
themselves as a profession(22),
of academic But,
and research
bodies
include
like demography
itself,
the profession
shared by Alain Blum (18) A rather radical personal opinion, statistics and demography between (Blum 1997, pp.266-270). (19) Or rather, perhaps, statistical behind
in his
examination
of
the relations
(20) This is the philosophy recent years. (21) Although Then two-thirds came sociology,
history
conducted
in
degree.
in the D?mographie 2000 survey of the respondents and history statistics, economics, geography
a demography
as "demographers". defined themselves survey, 67% of respondents a to are often classed under is there (and demographers) (23) However, go: demography long way or even wider categories in In many countries, (as etc.), statistics, (France, Italy). sociology Belgium, is still not listed in the official socio-occupational nomenclature. "demographer" (22) For example, in the 2000
21
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D. Tabutin
to the general
and
or its role misunderstood. the media, in numbers I cannot say how (although in the younger and more feminized
less certain, and more controversial
generations
positive
aspects,
III.Demography's
weaknesses
and constraints
certainly has its assets and strengths, but it also suffers from Demography constraints and weaknesses that vary in nature and intensity from one region or country to another. Iwill examine only those I see as most important, most a in the short or those that may pose "threat" to the discipline universal,
medium term.
Relative Often
among
the
social
or academic
objects social change(25), demography social sciences. Some would a growing There is admittedly
insufficiently understanding tends to be intellectually isolated among the even say that it has retreated behind its walls. but this is still not with other
comes borders
degree of interdisciplinarity, the prime characteristic of demographers; their dialogue can be difficult. In Roussel's (2004, p. 239): opinion
"A major obstacle of retrenchment to forming the Faced syndrome.
sciences
from a sort other
with
line tominimize
This and
sciences.
isolation
specialized,
can be found too in teaching, where curricula are specific to other social with no great interdisciplinary opening
A "small" discipline
In most
university
countries,
teams that
demography
are small or
has developed
even tiny(26),
and operates
with fewer
in centres
or
and
researchers
(24) For example, 54% of PAA members still clearly in the majority (63% in the the proportion of women is rising: from it was 54% at the latter date). members al. in their analysis of the contents some variations between (25) With to the CICRED
in 2004, but in many other associations men are IUSSP in 2004, 66% in AIDELF). However, within the IUSSP, 31% in 1999 to 35% in 2003 and 37% in 2005 (among student This feminization of research was from 1964 pointed to 1992. up by Teachman et
were women
(26) According and only 20% have researchers, and the Max (Paris), NIDI (The Hague)
database 12 or more.
half the centres (2003, p.30), There are, of course, some major Planck Institute (Rostock).
listed
have
fewer
exceptions,
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Whither
Demography?
students
than
other
social
sciences,
and
consequently
fewer
resources
and
Even
in the United
States,
as Preston
in academic
(1993, p. 595)
bureaucracies
is a small in need
security
research
lining"
are not everything, but they can help in negotiating Of course, numbers or student places or in raising funds. At a time of budget "stream
and restriction, as is the case today, "small" entities are vulnerable,
is indeed under and demography creation of international doctoral does not resolve Demography's Relatively all the problems. fragmentation isolated and small,
threat
in some places. Networking and the as now in is the fashion schools, Europe,
is also gradually becoming demography nor not is inside. This from limited to new, compartmentalized fragmented, our in acute not it is but and without my opinion particularly discipline(28), recent on In their of research, Poirier report danger. thirty years demography a and Pich? make clear distinction various between (1999) types of between objects of research, levels of analysis, compartmentalization: currents and demographic critical theoretical factors, production
us examine the first.
at the start by traditional mainly or unconcerned with demographic largely comprehension analysis(29), we a on to have moved number of explanation, demographic "sub-disciplines", a breakdown of demography into separate fields or issues, and greater From analytical demography, controlled Each major field (fertility, mortality, etc.) or issue specialization. migration, its own health, ageing, etc.) now has its own specialists, (family, education, tools (for data collection and analysis), and explanatory paradigms. The process even within is continuing a individual in addition, fields or topics(30) with, between North and South. gulf This fragmentation is perhaps necessary, or may well be inherent to progress in scientific knowledge, but it is not free of risk: it causes a fragmentation of favours the analytical and neglects knowledge, approach over the systemic, are the interactions that and complexity part of any social system, in terms of are A number of recent approaches(31) both measurement and explanation. but this is far from enough. opening up new perspectives,
thirty.
(28) Edgar Morin long ago deplored (29) At least in the French-speaking
in all sciences.
into child mortality, divided (30) An example of a field might be mortality, oldest-old mortality, with some specialists focusing on the North and others (31) Such as the life-event history approach already mentioned.
and now
23 ?
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D. T?butin
Insufficient
progress
in explanation
or a discipline to be complete, to deserve the status of a measure not but also understand (how) and explain science, only in the last twenty years or has made definite progress (why)(32). Demography so: it is opening up, or attempting to open up, to the explanation of the social so well. But this is happening it already quantifies phenomena slowly and it must the image of demography is any clear priority(33). Overall, cautiously, without that of a science which is good at measuring, at ex but poor or unreliable (de Bruyn, 1999; Burch, 1999; Tabutin, 1999). Progress in explanation plaining and theorization is real for fertility, but much less so for mortality and
migration.
For a science
The debate
is not a new one;
on the place
it is more or
of explanatory
less recurrent(34).
or causal
Some
research
observers
in demography
see demography
as being restricted to the analytical, which was originally its strength, but is now a serious handicap (Loriaux 1996). Others argue that "demography does not, in general, deserve to be qualified as theoretically weak" (Poirier and Pich? research has faced many obstacles, 1999, p.42), but do recognize that explanatory to the due of Let us merely point out the discipline. particularly fragmentation that multivariate
a preliminary
statistical
stage.
analysis
is not sufficient
for explanation;
it is only
rather
In fact, there is still the risk that will remain "a technique demography to others than a science" (Livi-Bacci, 1984), leaving basic explanation to to economists and health sciences, fertility (migration geographers, mortality to sociologists and anthropologists). is short on theoretical and Demography debate. ideological discreet Despite a science? a certain
Too
is progress and diversity across the world, demography understood both its fellow disciplines and (misunderstood?) generally poorly by the world of politics and the media. It is often lacking in public visibility at every level (central government, and suffers regions, local authorities andbusinesses(35)), . from insufficient dissemination and awareness of its research Demography has not yet fully emerged from its ivory tower, a position which offers freedom to think but also creates a risk of social and political irrelevance.
(32) Consequently, is the descriptive determined a possible definition of demography would be: "the social science and explanatory and dynamics of spatially study of the structures human populations". whose object or culturally
to have been specifically devoted (33) One need only note how few sessions at recent major congresses theories or explanation. Or again the little space given to these topics in many study curricula. need theory" (Wunsch (34) "is theory for demographers?" (Vance 1952); "Why demographers 1995). a form of applied as business known is now developing, (35) Although demography, demography in the United States. notably to the rule, such as the there are some fine exceptions (36) Fortunately Population on the world in France, or the exhibition held in Paris in 2005. population and Societies journal
24
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Whither
Demography?
This is probably due to the very nature of the discipline: is a demography more science of knowledge than of action. It does provide valuable information to support decision-making but it covers long-term trends rather processes, than topical events,
response times, and
requires research
complex
are
information
cautious. In
systems
this
and relatively
it has more
long
to
its diagnoses
respect
than applied research. Some observers criticize its insufficient (or tardy) engagement with the great contemporary challenges etc.), globalization, facing the world and its societies (poverty, environment, in public debate, its absence of political commitment(37). its lack of involvement Loriaux (1996) goes so far as to call it a "sanitized discipline".
do with
fundamental
IV.Potential
Iwill
future of
risks
most debated, central to the within
examine
demography,
only
and
those
related
remarks:
compartmentalization,
excessive
universities.
quantification,
explanation
left to others,
Compartmentalization a strong identity, based on objects still has, in my opinion, Demography as useful and effective. But some observers are and tools that are recognized are concerned by the processes of specialization that currently at work in both research and teaching(38). An extreme scenario might be a "disintegration" of are a to sector into branches that disparate demography particular specific (reproduction, graphy, positive demo etc.), discipline (health, economic or seen as the This be etc.) may region. demographic anthropology, as effect of greater the advance of interaction, interdisciplinary migration, ageing,
as the risk of a loss of identity, or into other fields, or conversely demography as a retreat from the prime object of demography: the study of complete again and systems in their spatial and temporal diversity. The analytical demographic to the thus be would Object fragmented approach strengthened. Towards "statistical extremism"? focusing on individual traditional statistical behaviour, demography was and demographic analysis. in statistical analysis was key to is to slip you can't the most
destined
recent trends Taking on board the most in But this the danger, in research and teaching, progress respect. into a sort of statistical extremism (almost an intellectual terrorism): a or be do demography without using (or obtaining) demographer
(37) In the 2000 but more stated of respondents survey, one-third as individuals than as demographers. of research centres and teaching that they "wanted
to take part
in political in targeted
debate",
numbers
programmes
are specializing
25 ?
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D. Tabutin
"state-of-the-art" toolkit(39). Already perceived as (too?) quantitative, sophisticated, the discipline would become even less comprehensible, forfeiting the opportunity to develop a more open, social or qualitative form of demography. Leaving explanation to others?
now
on the place of research is among demographers explanatory For one side, demography is progressing, up to other opening use concerned with theorization and the of more disciplines, increasingly advanced data and tools. The other side (including me) sees demography as The debate open. when it comes to understanding are made, it is often by advances
economists, etc.). In other
time(40) and still just as hesitant marking and ex-plaining. And when fundamental
outsiders (sociologists, historians,
anthropologists,
faces "competition" on its own ground. If it cannot explain words, demography better using its own resources, it runs the risk of gradually leaving a key feature of all science - insight - in the hands of others, and thereby losing its credibility.
Is university
demography
losing steam?
are the main venue for the world, universities Throughout demographic research and teaching, which is either institutionally independent or incorporated with another disciplined The situation naturally varies from one country to or even threatened another, but demography teaching is often made vulnerable reasons: for various the small size of the teaching centres(42), the marginal status of demography with respect to other disciplines ,fierce competition with similar courses if funding and posts are pared down, a strongly quantitativist in career terms. In many the future of image, and poor visibility places, is in uncertain, university demography increasingly Europe where including
major reforms are under way(44). The risks, already upon us, are the disappear
ance
research.
of established of competent
courses, young
fewer
students
shortage
demographers
process
can
be
seen
at work
in
the
content
of major
journals
and
recent
teaching
as is happening
in other
social
sciences.
to the CICRED there are 329 university centres in the world. This (41) According (2004) inventory includes regional training centres in developing countries, usually funded by international organizations and attached to universities. those structures that are institutionally (42) Particularly independent. (43) It is often only an adjunct to courses in other subjects. (44) What will be the place of demography in the new European 3-5-8 system (BA, MA, PhD)?
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Whither
Demography?
demography demographers?
of demography has all demographers agree that the science or so in its the last twenty years, improving original considerably changed new methodological in measurement), expertise developing (particularly its research (micro, longitudinal, multi-level, etc.), and diversifying approaches a as to I I it remains uncertainties But number of have shown, topics. subject hope and perhaps even diversion. and suffers from inadequacies and constraints, the of is and the discipline the debate (its identity However, open perception to another. and future) varies from one region, country, school and individual even speaking are pleased with of a "new Some observers these changes, about the future; others (including me) are more and optimistic demography", some are seriously themselves while and are asking questions, and its institutions. about the future of the discipline The history of every science has its ups and downs, periods of certainty as such is not yet under threat by and periods of questioning. Demography seems a to at it but be any means, turning point in its history, as it faces the world's major social and economic problems, new social and political demands and "competition" from neighbouring often against a backdrop of sciences, doubtful, concerned public funding for research and teaching. It seems tome that three aspects of the discipline need to be strengthened: ;2) its social and political utility; and 3) its public 1) its identity or specificity If this does not happen, demography is likely to remain what it is visibility. now:
to
limited
a fascinating small discipline that is rather isolated and marginalized, disconnected the from realities of the world, and offering a safe haven relatively
its practitioners.
of imperative relevant to both research and requirements(45), to contribute One these teaching, goals. imagine: might a more social, rather less analytical^ demography, giving greater priority to the social, economic causes and consequences and political of change, to could
their understanding, and to the interrelations between social subsystems, etc.
A number
This does not involve quantification alone. an explanatory demography: despite some
remains and is perceived as an essentially
real progress(47),
science,
demography
a science of
descriptive
its identity and independence, numbers. To underpin itmust venture to explain and concern itself more with the reasons why changes occur. Congresses and
in our discipline the world, although (45) Fairly general because, here again, situations vary throughout the United dominance of the North, the scientific of the countries States, (and financial) especially remains strong. (46) To use (47) Often this old, and rather brusque disconnected and individual. dichotomy, because I could not find a better one.
27 |
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D. Tabutin
study curricula
debate.
space to theories,
causality
and ideational
a more qualitative demography: the qualitative approach is virtually absent from teaching programmes, and has never really found a place in the discipline, out of ignorance, fear or even rejection on the part of the dominant quantitativists. The point is not to "dilute" the methodology of demography but to strengthen itwith approaches better suited to the study of the perceptions, strategies and that underlie rationales individual and collective demographic behaviour. The is essential for explanation(48). qualitative a demography more the many key socio-political issues of engaged with the world,
exclusion,
in both North
poverty,
and South,
from local
development,
to international
violence, etc.
levels: social
In general,
environment,
have played little part in this, or have done so only recently. Yet demographers when is often valued(49). As stated by Lassonde they do, their contribution its dimension (1996, p.177): "By confining object of study to the microsocial of reproduction, is incapable of providing the enlightenment demography essential indicating a demography to defining the issues of the modern the appropriate solutions". world, and consequently of
have direct taught differently: all the above suggestions the for the of textbook (course structure, implications teaching discipline is which diversified Let the world. content, teaching style), highly throughout us mention a to few which used could be shift from only major principles(50) a rather "abstract" to a more lively, more practical and probably demography more attractive demography: 1) integrate "techniques" and "explanatory factors" rather than teach them in separate courses(51); 2) give greater weight to theories and conceptual illustrations of the history frameworks; 3) stress the practical of change exercises,
methods.
in the world;
the computer tools needed for application 4) develop for simulation in data collection and for error testing and
Concluding
remarks
is not, inmy opinion, an interdisciplinary science or a bridge Demography nor an between the social and natural sciences, to discipline interdiscipline, used. It is a science in its own right which, quote some of the terms sometimes by choice or necessity, has adapted to change and opened up to other disciplines. A danger, often mentioned, would be, as Roussel (1997, p. 27) states, "for it to
to teach, or be competent in all the methodologies (48) It is impossible could imagine amore even balance between qualitativist demographers, and quantitativist concerned with measurement. demographers, (49) This (50) On is true in the environmental of the social concerned with sciences, but one
understanding,
field for example. issue of teaching, see, for example, the report of the IUSSP working the texts by Burch and Palloni in the special issue of Genus. 2002), and particularly in Europe and North America. (51) As is the case with many courses and textbooks the major
group
(Caselli
4 28
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Whither
Demography?
in away
that is different no
science
but just as marked as at the outset, A sort of identity or independence". for the others. The risk exists but it is
inescapable.
from within, assailed from without, doubtless stands at demography a turning point in its history. Its future will largely depend on its ability to that will inevitably adapt and respond to the new social and political demands to at its sell and achieve all levels. arise, greater visibility "products" Torn
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in European
Population,
<
30
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Whither
Demography?
Abbreviations
AIDELF (in Cairo) CELADE CICRED CDC Association Internationale des D?mographes de Langue Fran?aise Cairo Demographic Centre Centro Latinoamericano de Demograf?a y Caribe?o in National in Demography Committee for International Research Cooperation Association de Formation Union Institut Studies for Population et de Recherches D?mographiques for the Scientific Study of Population Institute
RIPS UNFPA
(in Accra)
Population
Population
Dominique Belgium,
Universit?
catholique
de Louvain,
Louvain-la-Neuve,
31
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