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January 2014
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Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation.
Energy Outlook 2035 2 BP 2014
Contents
Page Introduction Outlook 2035: Global energy trends Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal and non-fossil fuels Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Appendix 4 7 23 51 67 79 91
BP 2014
Welcome to the 2014 edition of BPs Energy Outlook. Published for the 4th time, the annual Energy Outlook reflects our best effort to describe a most likely trajectory of the global energy system, based on our views of likely economic and population growth, as well as developments in policy and technology. The Outlook, like its sister publication, the Statistical Review of World Energy, is the result of intensive analysis by our Economics Team; both documents have deservedly become standard references for those with an interest in energy. Of course the future is uncertain: the numbers that make up this Outlook are less important than the long-term trends, the possible forks in the road ahead, and the choices they pose for decision makers in government and business. This edition of the Outlook raises three big questions: Will the world have sufficient energy to fuel continued economic growth? Will that energy be secure? And will it be sustainable? On the first question, our answer is a resounding Yes . We project that global energy consumption will rise by 41% by 2035, with 95% of that growth coming from rapidlygrowing emerging economies. That growth rate is slower than what we have seen in previous decades, largely as a result of increasing energy efficiency. Trends in global technology, investment and policy leave us confident that production will be able to keep pace. New energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil, and renewables will account for a significant share of the growth in global supply. Energy efficiency promises to improve unabatedly, driven by globalization and competition.
Energy Outlook 2035 4 BP 2014
On the question of security, our Outlook offers a mixed, though broadly positive, view. Among todays energy importers, the United States is on a path to achieve energy selfsufficiency, while import dependence in Europe, China and India will increase. Asia will become the dominant energy importing region. Russia will remain the leading energy exporter, and Africa will become an increasingly important supplier. While it will remain a key energy player, the Middle East is likely to see relatively static exports. And on the question of sustainability, we project that global carbon dioxide emissions will rise by 29%, with all of the growth coming from the emerging economies. There are some positive developments: emissions growth will slow as natural gas and renewables gain market share from coal and oil. And emissions are expected to decline in Europe and the US. But we could do better. This year, we extend the outlook to 2035 far enough to see some key turning points: India is likely to surpass China as the largest source of energy demand growth; renewable energy will no longer be a minor player, surpassing nuclear energy; and OECD countries will have started to crack the code of sustaining economic growth while reducing energy demand. Once again, the Outlook highlights the power of competition and market forces in unlocking technology and innovation to meet the worlds energy needs. These factors make us optimistic for the worlds energy future, and they suggest a way forward in mastering challenges such as security and sustainability. I hope you find the BP Energy Outlook a useful addition to the global energy discussion. Bob Dudley Group Chief Executive
Energy Outlook 2035 5 BP 2014
Page Introduction Outlook 2035: Global energy trends Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal and non-fossil fuels Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Appendix 4 7 23 51 67 79 91
BP 2014
-0.4
BP 2014
2000
2035
10
11
BP 2014
Coal
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Gas
2000
2035
13
BP 2014
12%
6%
0 1990
2005
2020
0% 2035
BP 2014
Coal
Gas
14
10%
2000
4 2035
16
0% 1965
*Includes biofuels
and the fuel mix is slowly shifting away from fossil fuels
Energy consumption grows less rapidly than the global economy, with GDP growth averaging 3.5% p.a. 2012-35. As a result energy intensity, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP , declines by 36% (1.9% p.a.) between 2012 and 2035. The decline in energy intensity accelerates; the expected rate of decline post 2020 is more than double the decline rate achieved 2000-2010. Fuel shares evolve slowly. Oils share continues to decline, its position as the leading fuel briefly challenged by coal. Gas gains share steadily. By 2035 all the fossil fuel shares are clustering around 27%, and for the first time since the Industrial Revolution there is no single dominant fuel. Taken together, fossil fuels lose share but they are still the dominant form of energy in 2035 with a share of 81%, compared to 86% in 2012. Among non-fossil fuels, renewables (including biofuels) gain share rapidly, from around 2% today to 7% by 2035, while hydro and nuclear remain fairly flat. Renewables overtake nuclear in 2025, and by 2035 they match hydro.
Energy Outlook 2035 17 BP 2014
Renew.
Coal
0% 1965
2000
2035
BP 2014
400
300
Energy
-2
21
BP 2014
22
BP 2014
Page Introduction Outlook 2035: Global energy trends Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal and non-fossil fuels Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Appendix 4 7 23 51 67 79 91
23
BP 2014
Supply
2035 level
25
BP 2014
6%
3%
40
1995
2015
1995
2015
2035
BP 2014
33
BP 2014
Historical disruptions
Change from pre-disruption level*, Mb/d 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 Iran (1979) Iraq (1990) Libya (1970) Russia (1991)
3Q11
2Q12
1Q13
4Q13
34
-5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
BP 2014
OPEC exports
Mb/d and Bcf/d 40 Oil Gas 30
300
600
200
400
20
100
200
10
0 1975
1995
2015
2035
BP 2014
37
BP 2014
Regional imbalances
Mb/d 75 50 25 0 -25 Middle East Europe Africa N America Mb/d 30 FSU Asia Pacific S&C America 25 20 15 10 5 0 2015
38
Mb/d 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
1995
2015
2035
1995
2015
2035
BP 2014
20 15 10 5 0 -5
OECD
*Includes gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids and refinery volume gain Energy Outlook 2035 40
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
BP 2014
50
Vehicle ownership
Vehicles per 1000 capita 800 US Germany Japan China 1 200 India 2 3
Transport demand
Billion toe
600
Non-OECD
Non-OECD
OECD
2000
0 2035 1965
2000
2035
BP 2014
15
0 1975
80 70 60 50 40 30 2012 Increased number of vehicles Reduced average usage Improved Increased vehicle use of efficiency alternatives* 2035
Non-OECD Non-OECD OECD
OECD
* Includes biofuels, GTL, CTL, CNG, LNG and electricity Energy Outlook 2035 48 BP 2014
50
BP 2014
Page Introduction Outlook 2035: Global energy trends Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal and non-fossil fuels Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Appendix 4 7 23 51 67 79 91
51
BP 2014
Demand by sector
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Industry Other Transport
Power
2000
2035
52
0% 1965
2000
2035
BP 2014
53
BP 2014
120
80
Rest of world China Europe & Eurasia Canada & Mexico US Power
24%
16%
40
% of total (RHS)
0 1990
2005
20%
LNG
2005
2020
2005
2020
2035
BP 2014
Europe
China
Net pipeline import Net LNG import Shale gas Other unconventional Conventional
2015
2035
BP 2014
1.2
Oil
30% Power
0.8
Gas
0.4
0.0 1970
1983
1996
2009
2022
2035
60
2000
2035
BP 2014
80%
63
BP 2014
Production
2035 level
2012
Non-shale decline
Shale
64
BP 2014
65
BP 2014
66
BP 2014
Page Introduction Outlook 2035: Global energy trends Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal and non-fossil fuels Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Appendix 4 7 23 51 67 79 91
67
BP 2014
0.9
60%
Power Other
Industry Transport
90%
40%
60%
China India OECD
20%
30%
Other
0% 1965
Energy Outlook 2035
2000
0% 2035 1965
70
2000
2035
BP 2014
Non-OECD
0 1965
Energy Outlook 2035
2000
2035
72
0 1965
2000
2035
BP 2014
73
BP 2014
0.3
China
EU
US
OECD Asia
India
BP 2014
75
BP 2014
3%
0 1965
Energy Outlook 2035
2000
2035
76
0% 1965
2000
2035
BP 2014
77
BP 2014
78
BP 2014
Page Introduction Outlook 2035: Global energy trends Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal and non-fossil fuels Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Appendix 4 7 23 51 67 79 91
79
BP 2014
US
EU World
China
2000
81
BP 2014
Carbon intensity
Tonnes CO2 per toe 4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0 1965
Energy Outlook 2035
2000
2035
82
0 1965
2000
2035
BP 2014
40%
US
US EU
20% 1900
1915
1930
1945
1960
84
1975
1990
2005
2020
2035
BP 2014
*France, Germany, Italy and United Kingdom pre-1965 Energy Outlook 2035
EU
China
60%
30%
0% 1990 1990
Energy Outlook 2035
2035 2035
BP 2014
400
GDP
25 20
Energy intensity
Fuel mix
Conclusion
Meeting the global energy challenge
Sufficient and available?
Yes new energy sources and efficiency improvements
Sustainable?
Room for improvement
Page Introduction Outlook 2035: Global energy trends Liquid fuels Natural gas Coal and non-fossil fuels Carbon emissions and the fuel mix Appendix 4 7 23 51 67 79 91
91
BP 2014
Coal
Bio Biofuels
Inputs into power generation Non-OECD fossil fuel use -150 -100 -50 0 Mtoe
Energy Outlook 2035 92 BP 2014
50
100
150
Non-OECD OECD
Other Gas
Nuclear Liquids
Coal
Our Outlook is based on a most likely assessment of future policy trends. In that respect it differs from the energy projections published by the IEA and the EIA, which are based on specific policy scenarios and which make no judgements about the likelihood of those scenarios. Our policy assumptions are closest to those in the IEAs New Policies Scenario (NPS), which assesses demand prospects on the assumption that announced national policy objectives are implemented. Yet our outcomes are closest to the IEAs Current Policies Scenario and the EIAs reference case, both of which assume no change in policy settings. Our Outlook shows more growth in non-OECD energy demand than the IEA NPS; it also shows more growth for fossil fuels, especially for coal. This probably reflects differing views on the outlook for rapidly industrializing economies, in particular on the speed with which they can move to a less energy-intensive growth path.
95
BP 2014
Data sources
BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, June 2013 Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, Heston, A., Summers, R., Aten, B., Penn World Table Version 7.1, Nov 2012. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, Washington, D.C., United States, 2013 Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Washington, D.C., United States, 2014 Etemad, B., J. Luciani, P. Bairoch, and J.-C. Toutain, World Energy Production 1800-1985, Librarie DROZ, Switzerland, 1991 International Council for Clean Transportation, Global passenger vehicle standards update. August 2013 International Energy Agency, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, Paris, France, 2013 International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2013 International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2013 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2013, Paris, France, 2013 Mitchell, B.R., International Historical Statistics 1750-2005, Palgrave Macmillan, New York, United States, 2007 Oxford Economics Ltd, Oxford, UK Rhl C., Appleby P., Fennema J., Naumov A., Schaffer ME. (2012). Economic development and the demand for energy: a historical perspective on the next 20 years. Energy Policy, vol 50, pp. 109-116. UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, New York, United States, 2013 US Environmental Protection Agency, Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2012. March 2013 Plus various official sources
96
BP 2014