Pakistan Weekly Update

StockSmart

AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

21 March 2014

AKD Research

Weekly Review

research@akdsecurities.net
009221 111 253 111

The KSE-100 Index closed the week at 26,765 points, down by 1.3%WoW. Investor sen-

Indices
KSE-100
KSE-30
This week 26,765.49 18,990.38
Last week 27,124.47 19,579.43
Change
-1.32%
-3.01%

timent remained subdued following no change to the DR in the Mar14 MPS and a dip in
regional markets which resulted in selling pressure towards the end of the week. Major
news flow during the week included 1) Feb14 current account registered at US$164mn
increasing the 8MFY14 deficit to more than US$2bn (1.2% of GDP) while FDI increased

Indices
KMI-30
Allshare
This week 44,606.35 20,026.10
Last week 45,588.55 20,195.28
Change
-2.15%
-0.84%

by 18%YoY to US$606mn and 2) LSM sector posted modest growth of 2.6%YoY in

Jan14, bringing 7MFY14 LSM growth to 6.05%YoY. Within the AKD Universe, major
gainers during the week were SNGP (+16.3%WoW), SSGC (+14.2%WoW) and SHEL
(+5.7%WoW) while major losers during the week included AGTL (-7.2%WoW), OGDC (-

off by 33%WoW to clock in at 188mn shares where volume leaders included FABL, TRG,
LPCL, FCCL and SSGC.

Index & Volume Chart

Universe Gainers & Losers

(Index)

(Shrs'000)
250,000

27,259

27,229

27,149

27,200

27,247

200,000

26,765

100,000

26,800

85.28

FCCL

36.26

SSGC

35.19

26,600

26,500

ReadyVolume(LHS)

5.0%
10.0%

KSE100Index(RHS)

AGTL

44.44

OGDC

LUCK

LPCL

21Mar

67.86

20Mar

19Mar

TRG

0.0%

26,700

50,000

18Mar

17Mar

FABL

5.0%

26,900

PSMC

Volum e (m n)

ICI

Sym bol

27,000

150,000

10.0%

27,100

PPL

Top-5 Volum e Leaders

15.0%

27,300

UBL

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)

This week
188.87
Last week
282.90
Change
-33.24%

6.9%WoW) and PSMC (-6.4%WoW). Average daily traded volume during the week came

SHEL

US$bn
65.80
66.45
-0.97%

SSGC

PkRbn
6,460.62
6,551.97
-1.39%

SNGP

Mkt Cap.
This week
Last week
Change

Source: KSE & AKD Research

(mn)

(Index)

700

28,000
26,700

600

25,400

500

Outlook

24,100
22,800

400

21,500
300

20,200
18,900

200

17,600

100

16,300

With the end of result season, we expect the market will continue tracking the regional
markets, at least in the near-term. Attention is also likely to remain on macros particularly
the fx reserves position (release of CSF and IMF tranche). In our view, the recent market
dip has opened up attractive investment opportunities in names such as BAFL, NBP,

Volume (LHS)

Mar-14

Jan-14

Feb-14

Oct-13

Dec-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

May-13

15,000

NML, ENGRO and HUBC which should be availed.

KSE- 100 Index

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies

Important disclosures covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

AKD SECURITIES
Member: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg

(AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com
and Reuters Knowledge

Copyright2014 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended
for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be
contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within
such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation
or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD
Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

21 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

Mar 21, 2014

PSMC_TPrevisionfollowingstrongerPkR,(AKDDaily,March21,2014)

27,198
27,132
27,066
27,000
26,934
26,868
26,802
26,736
16:32

15:46

15:02

14:18

13:35

12:53

12:10

11:26

9:59

10:43

9:15

26,670

Mar 20, 2014

Followingswi PkRapprecia on,subsequentincorpora onofhigherGMsandarevi

sioninvolumees mates,weraiseourEPSes matesforPSMCby6%onaverage.To
gether will rollover onto Dec'14, our target price for PSMC rises to PkR195/share
(+12%).WeforecastNPATofPkR1,892mn(EPS:PkR22.99)inCY14Fwhichrepresents
normalizedgrowthof20%YoY(exsaleoflandinCY13),leadingtoadoubledigitpro
jected5yrNPATCAGR(normalized).Thatsaid,webelievethestock's23%MTDrisehas
largelycapturedtheposi veswhereourrevisedtargetpriceimpliesaNeutralstance.
Factorsthatwouldinduceustorevisitourinvestmentcaseincludeasustainedstrong
PkR(+ve)aswellastheprovisionsoftheupcomingautopolicy.
NBP_Worstmaybeover,(AKDDaily,March20,2014))

27,356
27,316
27,276
27,236
27,196
27,156
27,116
27,076
15:31

14:39

13:47

12:56

12:05

11:14

9:30

10:22

27,036

Mar 19, 2014

27,360
27,340
27,320
27,300

FollowingNBP'sworstperformancein10yrs(CY13NPAT:PkR5.4bn,EPS:PkR2.48),we
cutourDec'14targetpricetoPkR60/sharebutretainanAccumulatestancebasedon
anan cipatedswi reboundinprofitability.WithBangladeshopera ons~60%provid
edforanddomes cimpairmentheadedlower,themainimpetustoearningsgrowth
shouldcomefromlikelylowerprovisions.Atthesame me,NBPretainssizeableunre
alizedcapitalgainsbacklogofPkR21.7bn(onlocalshares/mutualfunds)whichcanpo
ten ally result in +ve earnings surprises. Finally, sustained CAR above 16% provides
comfortthatNBPcanmaintainahighpayoutra ogoingforward(3yraverage:76%).
Havingshed8%CYTD,NBPtradesataCY14FP/Bof0.7x,P/Eof7.2xandD/Yof10.4%.
WhileNBPwilllikelycon nuetotradeatadiscounttoprivatesectorpeers,webelieve
itspriceperformancewillrecouplewithan cipatedimprovementinsequen alresults.
Ourrevisedtargetpriceoers13%upside(totalreturn:24%).
BAFL_Poisedforstronggrowth,(AKDDaily,March19,2014)

27,280
27,260
27,240
27,220
15:30

14:51

14:13

13:35

12:57

12:18

11:40

11:02

9:45

10:24

27,200

Mar 18, 2014

27,372
27,353
27,334
27,315
27,296

Followingbe erthanexpectedresultsinCY13(EPS:PkR3.47,+3%YoY)whereasharp
reduc oninNPLstockwasakeyhighlight,weli ourDec14targetpriceforBAFLto
PkR32/sharefromPkR27/share.Ourbullishstanceispremisedonaprojected5yrNPAT
CAGR of 17%, among the best in the AKD Banking Universe, coupled with consistent
payouts(cash+bonus)overthemediumterm.Earningsgrowthisexpectedtoema
nate from both higher NII and lower credit costs. At the same me, while the rapid
branch network expansion in 4QCY13 (+73 branches to 574) may impinge on CY14F
costs,webelieveeconomiesofscalewillemergeoverthemediumtermascoresta
strengthhasremainedlargelystable.BAFLtradesataCY14FP/Bof1.1xandP/Eof7.5x
whereourrevisedTP(whichdoesnota achanyvaluetoWaridstake)oersanupside
of12%(exdividend:21%).

27,277

NML_A rac vedespite2HFY14weakness,(AKDDaily,March18,2014)

27,258
27,239
15:30

14:44

13:59

13:15

12:30

11:45

11:00

9:30

10:15

27,220

Mar 17, 2014

27,314
27,296
27,278
27,260
27,242
27,224
27,206
27,188
15:25

14:34

13:43

12:53

12:02

11:12

9:30

10:21

27,170

While NML posted strong results during 1HFY14 (EPS: PkR10.96; +35%YoY), 2HFY14
resultsareexpectedtobesequen allylowerduetolowercoreincomeonastronger
PkRaswellaslikelylowerdividendincome.Thesestandtocountertheimpactofan c
ipated higher other incomefrom loan to subsidiary. Together witha strong PkR, we
downward revise our FY14F and FY15F EPS es mates to PkR18.67 (1.88%) and
PkR22.12 (4.74%) which leads us to trim our Jun14 target price to PkR137.5/share
from PkR141.4/share previously. That said, NML (FY14F P/E: 6.9x) remains our pre
ferredplayintheTex lespacegivenitsrela velylowsensi vitytoco onpricesand
strongpor olioincome.Inthisregard,webelieveanyweaknessinshareprice,par cu
larlyonfreshPkRapprecia on,shouldbetakenasanopportunitytobuildposi onsin
thisqualityname.

Source:KSE&AKDResearch

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

21 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

PakistanEconomy:SBPtowait&see,(AKDDaily,March17,2014)
Inanotunexpectedmove,theSBPhaskepttheDiscountRateunchangedat10%for
the next two months. In this regard, while the central bank has cited lower infla on
andreboundinLSMgrowthasposi vefactors,itwishestoseefurthercomfortonthe
external front before decisively moving to cut interest rates. The la er is con ngent
upon1) melymaterializa onofforeigninflows,2)reduc oninfiscalborrowing,and
3)mee ngtheNDAtargetgivenbyIMFwhilesustainedstabilityintheexchangerateis
alsolikelytobeakeyfactor.Providedthisisachievedandinfla onremainsincheck,
webelievetheSBPmayhaveroomtocuttheDRbyasmuchas100bpsintheMay14
MPS.Intheinterim,withtheSBPmaintainingstatusquointheMar14MPS,weexpect
Bankstooutperformthisweek.Ontheflipside,leveragedCementsandselectedFer
lizers(EFERT)mayseeneartermweakness.Atthesame me,anyfreshdeprecia ng
pressure on the PkR (slippage of 1.5% vs. the US$ in the two days before MPS an
nouncement)maycauseaswitchfromAutosintoIPPs.

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

21 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Regional Valuations (2014)

Major World Indices Performance

EPSGrowth
Pakistan
25%
Indonesia
13%
Malaysia
17%
Philippines
9%
Vitenam
16%
India
17%
China
13%

PE(x)
8.27
11.38
12.55
14.76
15.28
13.83
7.08

Country

BloombergCode

%
Pakistan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Vitenam
India
China

DivdYld
5.82
2.37
3.46
2.48
n.a
1.82
3.95

Pakistan
Srilanka
Thailand
Jakarta
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
HongKong
Singapore
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S&P
DJIA
NASDAQComposite
UK
German
Qatar
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Kuwait
Oman
SaudiArabia
MSCIEM
MSCIFM

KSE100Index
CSEALLIndex
SETIndex
JCIIndex
FBMKLCIIndex
PCOMPIndex
VNINDEXIndex
HSIIndex
FSSTIIndex
IBXIndex
RTSSTDIndex
SENSEXIndex
SHCOMPIndex
SPXIndex
INDUIndex
CCMPIndex
UKXIndex
DAXIndex
DSMIndex
ADSMIIndex
DFMGIIndex
KWSEIDXIndex
MSM30Index
SASEIDXIndex
MXEFIndex
MXFMIndex

ROE
21.54
18.48
13.50
14.84
17.85
15.73
13.91

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

21Mar14

14Mar14

26,765
5,938
1,361
4,700
1,820
6,339
602
21,437
3,073
19,617
8,745
21,754
2,048
1,872
16,331
4,319
6,563
9,336
11,367
4,785
4,304
7,557
6,933
9,306
941
617

27,124
5,896
1,372
4,879
1,805
6,391
597
21,539
3,074
18,685
8,402
21,810
2,004
1,841
16,066
4,245
6,528
9,056
11,343
4,754
3,981
7,455
7,063
9,386
938
602

WoW

CYTD

1.32%
5.96%
0.71%
0.42%
0.85%
4.76%
3.66%
9.97%
0.85%
2.49%
0.81%
7.63%
0.82%
19.25%
0.48%
8.02%
0.01%
2.97%
4.99%
7.88%
4.08%
14.07%
0.26%
2.75%
2.16%
3.23%
1.68%
1.28%
1.65%
1.48%
1.74%
3.42%
0.54%
2.75%
3.09%
2.26%
0.21%
9.52%
0.65%
11.53%
8.10%
27.71%
1.38%
0.10%
1.85%
1.43%
0.86%
9.02%
0.32%
6.18%
2.50%
3.71%
Source: Bloomberg

International Major Currencies

SPOT

21Mar14

14Mar14

DollarIndex

80.115

79.446

USD/PkR

97.879

99.023

105.0

USD/JPY

102.320

101.360

103.0

EUR/USD

1.378

GBP/USD
AUD/USD

PkR/US$ Trend
109.0

107.0

101.0

99.0

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

97.0

Source: Bloomberg

Chg+/

WoW

CYTD

0.669

0.84%

0.10%

1.143

1.15%

7.07%

0.960

0.95%

2.84%

1.391

0.014

0.97%

0.26%

1.649

1.665

0.015

0.93%

0.39%

0.907

0.903

0.004

0.44%

1.69%

NZD/USD

0.853

0.854

0.000

0.05%

3.90%

CHF/USD

0.884

0.872

0.012

1.34%

0.99%

CAD/USD

1.119

1.111

0.009

0.78%

5.36%

USD/KRW

1,080

1,073

7.620

0.71%

2.91%

CNY/USD

6.226

6.150

0.076

2.83%
1.23%
Source: Bloomberg

Commodities

TRJ-CRB Index

SPOT

Units

21Mar14

14Mar14

WoW

CYTD

305

TRJCRB

Points

299.95

302.88

0.97%

7.06%

300

Nymex(WTI)

US$/bbl.

99.27

98.89

0.38%

0.86%

295

ICEBrent

US$/bbl.

106.83

108.38

1.43%

3.60%

290

N.GasHenryHub

US$/Mmbtu

4.4

4.3796

0.47%

1.29%

285
280
275

Cotton

USd/Pound

97.8

97.4

0.41%

9.03%

Gold

US$/Tr.Oz

1337.64

1383.05

3.28%

10.95%

Sliver

US$/Tr.Oz

20.418

21.445

4.79%

4.88%
12.67%

Mar-14

Jan-14

Feb-14

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

May-13

Mar-13

270

Source: Bloomberg

Copper

US$/MT

6441

6492.5

0.79%

Platinum

US$/Oz

1437.24

1471

2.30%

4.95%

Coal

US$/MT

73.1

73.1

0.00%

13.59%

Source: Bloomberg

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

21 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Chart Bank
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

Advance to Decline Ratio

(%)

1.60

12.0

1.50

10.0

1.40

8.0

1.30

6.0

1.20

4.0

0.80

FIPI Flows for the week

(US$mn)

500

10.00

70

(500)

8.00

M.Funds,
(11.11)

Ind.,0.10

6.00

(907)

(2,000)
(2,500)

4.00

(1,816)

2.00

(3,000)
(3,500)

(2,929)

NBFC,4.70

(4,000)
(4,500)

(2.00)

Co.,(1.43)

(4,372)

(5,000)
19Mar 20Mar

21Mar

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

MSCIEM

Mar14

Jan14

Nov13

Sep13

MSCIFM

Jul13

Mar14

Jan14

Dec13

Nov13

AKDUniverse

KSE100

65%
55%
45%
35%
25%
15%
5%
5%
15%

May13

KSEAllShareIndex

Sep13

Aug13

Jul13

May13

Apr13

49%
43%
37%
31%
25%
19%
13%
7%
1%
5%

Mar13

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

Jan13

18Mar

Others,
(1.33)

Bank/DFI,
(1.83)

(4.00)

17Mar

Mar13

Mar13

LIPI Flows for the week

(US$'000)

(1,000)
(1,500)

Mar14

(4.0)

Dec13

0.90
Oct13

(2.0)

Jul13

1.00

Jun07
Oct07
Mar08
Aug08
Jan09
May09
Oct09
Mar10
Aug10
Dec10
May11
Oct11
Mar12
Jul12
Dec12
May13
Oct13
Mar14

May13

1.10

2.0

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

21 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuations

21Mar14
EPS(PkR)
EPSchg(%)
EPSchg(%)ExFinancials
BookValueperShare(PkR)
Payout(%)
Valuations
PricetoEarnings(x)
PricetoBook(x)
PER(x)ExFinancials
P/BVS(x)ExFinancials
PricetoCF(x)
EarningsYield(%)
DividendYield(%)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Profitability
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
ChginSales(%)
GrossMargin(%)
OperatingMargin(%)
NetMargin(%)

2011A
8.04
24.30
25.15
37.64
52.26

2012A
8.74
8.67
8.76
43.08
50.30

2013A/E
9.55
9.28
16.62
49.25
50.11

2014F
11.90
24.59
28.53
55.24
48.10

2015F
13.64
14.59
15.37
61.58
48.24

12.23
2.61
13.16
3.18
20.17
8.18
4.27
7.77

11.25
2.28
12.10
2.80
25.12
8.89
4.47
6.85

10.30
2.00
10.38
2.38
8.20
9.71
4.87
6.11

8.27
1.78
8.07
2.07
20.06
12.10
5.82
5.34

7.21
1.60
7.00
1.84
11.21
13.86
6.69
4.74

21.37
3.85
17.34
23.41
14.47
11.38

20.29
3.58
17.58
21.76
12.84
10.52

19.40
3.77
5.68
22.88
13.47
10.88

21.54
4.16
12.61
22.46
13.47
12.04

22.15
4.30
10.79
23.02
14.32
12.45

Source: AKD Research

Market PER Chart 2014F

(x)
15

11

Mar-14

Dec-12

Sep-11

Jun-10

Mar-09

Dec-07

Sep-06

Jul-05

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2014F

(x)
3.5
2.6
1.7

Mar14

Dec12

Sep11

Jun10

Mar09

Dec07

Sep06

Jul05

0.8

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

21 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations

EPS

PE(x)
PB(x)
DY(%)
(PkR)

(PkR)
(PkR)

12A 13A/E 14F

12A 13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14F
AutomobileandParts

IndusMotors
INDU
395.3 384.29 Neutral 54.7 42.7 49.17.29.38.1 1.81.8 1.68.1 6.3
PakSuzukiMotors
PSMC
190.2 194.99 Neutral 11.9 22.5 23.016.08.58.3 1.00.9 0.81.3 2.12.6
Construc onandMaterials

DGKhanCement
DGKC
93.8 106.95 Accumulate 9.4 12.6 12.910.07.57.3 1.20.9 0.81.6 3.23.5
Chemicals

EngroPolymerChemicals
EPCL
14.6 16.49 Accumulate 0.11.11.1 125.8 13.7 12.7 1.51.4 1.2
ICIPakistanLimited
ICI
332.2 228.39
Sell
10.57.4 17.831.5 44.6 18.6 3.02.9 2.71.7 1.52.7
Lo eChemicalPakistanLtd.
LOTCHEM 6.8 8.53
Buy
0.0(0.3) 0.6 n.m n.m 11.5 0.80.8 0.83.7
EngroCorpora on
ENGRO
184.3 196.20 Accumulate 2.6 18.7 22.970.79.98.1 2.21.3 1.2
EngroFer lizersLimited
EFERT
49.1 55.45 Accumulate (2.3) 4.25.6(21.7) 11.68.7 4.02.9 2.2
DawoodHerculesLimited
DAWH
79.5 71.83 Reduce 2.09.2 13.139.08.66.1 2.0 n.a n.a1.3
FaujiFert.BinQasimLtd.
FFBL
41.3 49.33 Accumulate 4.66.06.68.96.96.2 3.12.4 2.5 10.9 13.3 15.1
FaujiFer lizerCompany
FFC
108.9 138.62
Buy
16.4 15.8 16.46.66.96.6 6.35.8 5.6 14.2 14.7 14.9
Fa maFer lizer
FATIMA
31.2 35.09 Accumulate 2.94.15.010.77.76.2 2.32.0 1.76.4 6.46.4
FoodProducers

EngroFoodsLimited
EFOODS 113.1 80.92
Sell
3.40.32.633.4 410.9 43.5 8.67.6 6.4
Oil&Gas

Oil&GasDevelopmentCo.
OGDC
251.9 302.09 Accumulate 22.5 21.1 28.911.2 11.98.7 4.03.3 2.72.9 3.34.6
PakOilfields
POL
539.9 612.57 Accumulate 50.1 45.8 59.110.8 11.89.1 3.63.7 3.49.7 8.38.5
PakistanStateOil
PSO
429.2 345.59 Reduce 36.7 50.8 91.511.78.44.7 2.11.7 1.31.3 1.22.3
Electricity

HubPowerCo.
HUBC
52.5 72.19
Buy
7.18.87.07.46.07.5 2.01.8 2.0 11.4 15.2 17.1
KotAdduPowerCompany
KAPCO
58.8 64.00 Accumulate 6.98.48.08.57.07.3 2.22.1 2.1 11.7 12.7 13.2
FixedLineTelecommunica on

PakistanTelecommunica on PTC
30.5 29.71 Neutral 2.23.14.213.69.97.3 1.31.3 1.27.49.8
PersonalGoods

NishatMills
NML
122.8 137.54 Accumulate 10.0 16.6 18.712.27.46.6 1.10.7 0.72.8 3.33.9
Banks

AlliedBankLimited
ABL
84.4 95.03 Accumulate 11.4 14.2 11.07.45.97.7 1.71.5 1.47.0 6.57.1
BankAlFalah
BAFL
25.9 32.0*
Buy
3.43.53.87.77.56.8 1.21.1 1.07.7 7.75.8
HabibBankLimited
HBL
164.0 164.99 Neutral 17.0 17.1 19.19.69.68.6 1.61.5 1.44.2 4.95.5
MCBBankLimited
MCB
246.6 270.03 Accumulate 18.8 19.7 20.913.1 12.5 11.8 2.62.4 2.14.4 5.25.3
Na onalBankofPakistan
NBP
51.6 59.99 Accumulate 7.32.57.47.0 20.87.0 0.80.7 0.7 11.8 3.9 10.7
UnitedBankLtd
UBL
144.8 150.03 Neutral 15.6 15.8 16.59.39.28.8 1.71.6 1.55.9 5.96.2
*TPforBAFLrisestoPkR33.8/shareuponsuccessfulWaridstakesale

Stocks

Symbol

Price

TP

Stance

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

21 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance

Stocks

Sym bol

Price
21-Mar-14

1M

CYTD

1 Year
High

1 Year
Low

26765.49

4.5

4.6

13.4

49.4

5.6

27104.70

17492.00

AGTL
MTL

212.12
469.00

-22.4
-1.4

1.4
-2.6

3.9
-4.7

-0.6
0.7

2.1
-3.1

273.49
519.58

197.00
433.73

INDU
PSMC

395.34
190.19

6.0
20.0

17.7
30.0

19.7
30.3

28.8
88.7

19.4
33.5

398.10
167.70

282.00
97.29

DGKC
LUCK

93.83
318.64

9.6
5.9

12.8
10.1

19.4
28.0

36.1
88.5

13.0
9.4

96.43
321.67

61.23
160.97

EPCL
ICI
LOTCHEM
DAWH
EFERT
ENGRO
FATIMA
FFBL
FFC

14.60
332.17
6.80
79.53
56.83
184.31
31.18
41.28
108.93

-4.6
25.5
1.2
-6.5
0.0
1.2
8.2
-5.3
-2.2

11.3
41.0
-7.7
40.0
n.a
17.4
8.2
-8.3
-5.7

12.4
66.9
-2.0
44.5
n.a
22.3
18.3
5.4
3.1

40.1
141.1
-10.1
59.4
n.a
40.5
38.5
11.4
0.9

10.8
45.7
-9.6
38.3
n.a
11.3
9.3
-7.3
-5.1

16.66
326.31
8.89
85.56
56.85
187.38
30.16
45.42
119.52

9.29
135.37
6.46
37.88
29.66
103.25
21.29
36.90
101.37

EFOODS

113.08

13.4

11.4

-1.6

-11.4

6.4

162.22

80.37

44.33

5.1

15.4

51.7

71.2

14.6

74.12

23.57

OGDC
POL
PSO

251.89
539.93
429.18

-4.1
9.1
24.8

-9.7
6.0
27.4

0.4
14.2
46.2

23.6
18.3
109.0

-8.9
9.2
27.7

287.84
539.63
367.10

197.32
428.73
184.67

HUBC
KAPCO

52.49
58.84

-3.8
3.4

-14.2
-4.5

-18.8
-8.3

-1.8
11.8

-14.8
-5.5

73.42
68.34

50.13
49.53

PTC

30.51

8.7

-2.5

11.1

54.8

-3.4

31.70

17.46

NCL
NML

48.21
122.82

-11.2
-7.5

-16.9
-1.8

-20.8
25.4

-1.3
47.7

-17.2
1.2

68.82
140.79

43.31
69.03

ABL
AKBL
BAFL
HBL
HMB
MCB
MEBL
NBP
UBL

84.42
17.20
25.86
164.01
24.55
246.55
36.95
51.56
144.83

-5.4
24.0
-7.5
2.2
1.9
-8.7
-1.2
-8.5
7.0

-8.1
18.4
-8.1
-1.1
-5.4
-17.7
-5.5
-13.1
6.3

-0.8
24.8
7.4
-3.9
0.0
-18.8
-5.4
-5.6
-4.8

41.3
11.6
66.4
70.3
59.3
30.7
45.0
29.3
71.4

-7.9
25.1
-5.6
1.5
-5.2
-13.1
-8.3
-11.2
6.3

94.51
16.15
28.66
181.57
26.16
316.87
40.87
60.01
154.21

55.01
10.76
14.77
88.00
14.61
183.00
24.11
37.66
82.16

KSE-100 Index

Absolute Perform ance (%)

3M
6M
12M

Industrial Engineering
Al-Ghazi Tractor
Millat Tractors
Autom obile and Parts
Indus Motors
Pak Suzuki Motors

Construction and Materials

DG Khan Cement
Lucky Cement
Chem icals
Engro Polymer Chemicals
ICI Pakistan Limited
Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited
Daw ood Hercules
Engro Fertilizers Ltd.
Engro Chemical
Fatima Fertilizer
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd.
Fauji Fertilizer Company
Food Producers
Engro Foods Limited
Non Life Insurance
Adamjee Insurance

AICL

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co.
Pak Oilfields
Pakistan State Oil
Electricity
Hub Pow er Co.
Kot Addu Pow er Company

Fixed Line Telecom m unication

Pakistan Telecommunication
Personal Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd.
Nishat Mills
Banks
Allied Bank Limited
Askari Bank Limited
Bank AlFalah
Habib Bank Limited
Habib Metropolitan Bank
MCB Bank Limited
Meezan Bank Limited
National Bank of Pakistan
United Bank Ltd

Source: KSE & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

21 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Economic Snapshot
End Month Data

Units

Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13

Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14

T-bill
3M

9.42

9.41

9.26

8.93

9.00

9.15

9.47

9.63

9.93

9.92

9.91

6M

9.44

9.42

9.16

9.01

9.20

9.35

9.68

9.88

10.02

9.98

9.95

12M

9.46

9.43

9.19

9.03

9.34

9.48

9.81

9.96

10.12

10.05

9.99

PIB 10Y

11.92

11.25

10.86

11.57

11.97

12.28

12.83

12.93

12.90

12.59

12.80

KIBOR 6M

9.58

9.60

9.39

9.08

9.15

9.29

9.55

9.52

10.13

10.14

10.15

Discount rate

9.50

9.50

9.00

9.00

9.00

9.50

9.50

10.00

10.00

10.00

10.00

Headline inflation

5.80

5.10

5.90

8.26

8.55

7.40

9.10

10.90

9.18

7.90

7.90

Core inflation

8.70

8.10

7.80

8.20

8.50

8.70

8.40

8.50

8.20

8.00

7.80

Food inflation

5.50

6.50

7.90

9.20

10.30

7.90

9.80

13.00

9.30

7.20

7.60

Export (PBS)

US$ (mn)

2,130

2,175

2,197

2,095

1,996

2,622

1,864

1,804

2,275

2,061

2,167

Import (PBS)

US$ (mn)

3,909

4,346

3,940

3,814

3,572

3,791

3,281

3,651

3,561

4,137

3,600

Trade Deficit (PBS)

US$ (mn)

Home Remittances

US$ (mn)

1,216

1,186

1,165

1,404

1,233

1,283

1,348

1,131

1,385

n.a

1,210

Current Account

US$ (mn)

(354)

(346)

(163)

46

(575)

(574)

(166)

(572)

285

(464)

164

1,779

2,171

1,743

1,719

1,576

1,169

1,417

1,847

1,286

Inflation

External Indicators

(1,779) (2,171) (1,743) (1,719) (1,576) (1,169) (1,417) (1,847) (1,286) (2,076) (1,433)

Banking Sector
Deposits

PkR (bn)

6,709

6,950

7,316

7,069

7,174

7,125

7,133

7,309

7,529

7,566

7,599

Advances

PkR (bn)

3,857

3,906

3,869

3,788

3,817

3,831

3,921

4,008

4,071

4,127

4,110

Investments

PkR (bn)

3,893

3,942

4,129

3,837

3,708

3,873

3,776

4,035

4,070

4,217

4,443

Weighted Avg. lending rate

11.42

11.49

11.36

11.28

11.11

11.10

11.10

11.13

11.07

n.a

n.a

Weighted Avg. deposit rate

5.23

5.15

5.01

4.97

4.83

4.79

4.90

4.89

5.05

n.a

n.a

Spread rate

6.19

6.34

6.35

6.31

6.28

6.31

6.20

6.24

6.02

n.a

n.a

153,199 173,268 267,608

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

60,982 128,889

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

104,737 112,286 138,719

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Public Finance
Tax collection

PkR (mn)

Direct taxes

PkR (mn)

Indirect Taxes

PkR (mn)

48,462

Currency
Reserves (RHS)

US$ (mn)

11,812

11,474

11,020

10,287

9,998

9,995

9,525

8,238

8,168

8,017

8,737

USDPkR - Interbank

PkR/USD

98.48

98.52

98.94

101.90

104.51

105.24

106.89

107.56

107.13

105.47

104.89

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

21 March 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Analyst Certification
We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related
to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the
specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst

Tel no.

E-mail

Coverage

Naveed Vakil
Raza Jafri, CFA
Anum Dhedhi
Bilal Alvi
Qasim Anwar
Hassan Quadri
Azher Ali Quli
Nasir Khan
Tariq Mehmood

+92 111 253 111 (692)

+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (637)
+92 111 253 111 (647)
+92 111 253 111 (680)
+92 111 253 111 (639)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (643)

naveed.vakil@akdsecurities.net
raza.jafri@akdsecurities.net
anum.dhedhi@akdsecurities.net
bilal.alvi@akdsecurities.net
qasim.anwar@akdsecurities.net
hassan.quadri@akdsecurities.net
azher.quli@akdsecurities.net
nasir.khan@akdsecurities.net
tariq.mehmood@akdsecurities.net

Director - Research & Business Development

Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks
Pakistan Economy
Textiles, Cements & Chemical
Technical Analysis
Research Production / Autos
Research Production
Research Production
Library Operations

DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS

This publication/communication or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AKD Securities
Limited. AKD Securities Limited has produced this report for private circulation to professional and institutional clients only. The information,
opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing so
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within such jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable and complied by
our research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to
its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Any opinions or estimates herein reflect the judgment of AKD Securities Limited at the date of this
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