East Midlands

home truths 2013/14

the housing market in the East Midlands

A distorted economic recovery

Only 49% of the new homes needed in the East Midlands are currently being built, pushing up house prices and rents.

England appears to be emerging from recession, but the recovery is distorted. Parts of the country are experiencing growth and in some places the local housing market is overstretched and is starting to overheat. Meanwhile other areas are at a relative standstill with little or no economic growth. Economic recovery is not reaching everyone in the East Midlands.
The East Midlands was one of the English regions with the lowest number of new homes built during 2012/13. Less than half (49%) of the new homes needed are being built each year1,2, pushing up the regions house prices and rents. The average East Midlands home costs over eight times the average local wage3,4 and is expected to cost 212,300 by 2020 a rise of more than 25%5. More people are being forced into the private rented sector, but the East Midlands is also expecting the second largest rise in rents of any English region up 45% by 20205. With comparatively low wages in the East Midlands 20,0364 on average housing costs are increasingly unaffordable. Since 2009 the region has reported a 93% rise in housing benefit claims by working people6.

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More homes would kick start the East Midlands economy

Between 2011 and 2013 the East Midlands has seen a 2.8% increase in new businesses7 but unemployment remains a problem with 180,500 people (6.5% of the regions working age population) out of work in 2012/138.
Young professionals and families are struggling to afford a home of their own and there is not enough suitable housing for the regions growing older In rural parts the East Across the North East just population. over half (54%) of the newof homes Midlands, households led by under-35s are expected to needed are actually being built each year. This is storingrise up by 9% between 2011 and 2021, while households led by people aged more problems for the future. The average North East home 1 65 and over are predicted to rise by 27% already costs more than seven times the. average income,

pushing more people into the private rented sector. Yet private Building more homes in the East Midlands would give the local rents are also unaffordable for many and are predicted to rise by economy a major boost. Every new home built brings 69,045 30% by 2021. into the East Midlands and creates 1.6 jobs directly and in the wider regional economy9. Nearly 80% of businesses surveyed across the country said a lack of affordable housing is stalling local economic growth and 70% warned it would affect their ability to attract and keep workers10. We need local people who want more housing to contact local councillors and say "Yes to Homes" (www.yestohomes.co.uk).

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The solution

Government must invest in building more homes where they are needed, and at prices that everyone can afford. Rising rents and house prices, as well as higher levels of unemployment and low or stagnant wages, mean more and more people need help with their housing costs.
Housing benefit currently costs taxpayers 24bn a year and most of it goes to private landlords rather than towards building new homes6. For a fraction of that, the Government could support areas experiencing economic growth by building more affordable homes. In areas where high housing costs could be stalling economic growth and creating problems for employers, Local Enterprise Partnerships working with local authorities, housing associations and others must take a strategic lead on getting more homes built, revitalising communities and creating jobs. Housing associations are in it for the long term. With more support, they can be real catalysts for change for local communities and help drive forward a balanced economic recovery for the East Midlands.

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The evidence
!

Across the East Midlands, 18,753 new households are expected to form each year between 2013 and 20211. In 2012/13 9,160 new homes were completed in the region 1,350 by housing associations2. Private rents are expected to rise by 45% in the East Midlands by 20205. Gedling and Rutland have seen rises of 7% and 10% respectively over the last four years, with further increases of 44% and 42% predicted by 20205. The average house price in the region in 2012 was 162,693 59% higher than the average for 20023. The East Midlands has seen a 93% increase in working people claiming housing benefit since 20096. Every new home built in the East Midlands adds 69,045 to the regional economy9. Every new home built in the region creates 1.6 jobs directly and in the wider regional economy9.

more problems for the future. The average North East home Live Table 253, Permanent dwellings started and completed, by tenure and district already costs more than seven times the average income, DCLG 2012/13 pushing more people private Simple average house prices into Land the Registry data rented sector. Yet private Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) Office and for National Statistics (ONS) 2012 rents are also unaffordable for many are predicted to rise by provisional results 30% by 2021.
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Across Sources: the North East just over half (54%) of the new homes 1 Household population projections by district, England, 1991-2021, interim 2011-based needed are actually being built each year. This is storing up Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) April 2013

Projections for the National Housing Federation Oxford Economics 2013 Inter Departmental Business Register (IDBR) ONS 2013

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Housing benefit statistics (Stat-Xplore) Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) Model-based estimates of unemployment ONS (Crown Copyright Reserved) Economic impact database, Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) for National Housing Federation Survey for National Housing Federation ComRes 2013

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East Midlands
Average (mean) weekly private sector rents 20121 Average (mean) house prices 20122 Average (median) incomes 20123 Ratio of house prices to incomes2,3 Households on waiting list 20124

ENGLAND East Midlands Derby UA Leicester UA Nottingham UA Rutland UA Derbyshire Amber Valley Bolsover Chesterfield Derbyshire Dales Erewash High Peak North East Derbyshire South Derbyshire Leicestershire Blaby Charnwood Harborough Hinckley and Bosworth Melton North West Leicestershire Oadby and Wigston Lincolnshire Boston East Lindsey Lincoln North Kesteven South Holland South Kesteven West Lindsey Northamptonshire Corby Daventry East Northamptonshire Kettering Northampton South Northamptonshire Wellingborough Nottinghamshire Ashfield Bassetlaw Broxtowe Gedling Mansfield Newark and Sherwood Rushcliffe

162.69 120.23 108.69 111.46 113.08 157.38 119.77 116.08 108.46 110.08 139.38 116.31 117.69 123.69 134.77 128.54 140.08 122.77 141.00 122.77 132.23 129.23 134.08 115.62 119.54 104.08 107.54 127.62 118.38 128.31 109.85 130.85 119.08 144.69 138.00 121.85 129.69 169.38 122.08 119.08 110.77 109.15 124.38 123.23 111.92 116.54 144.69

242,535 162,693 141,701 137,594 119,066 267,602 161,776 158,663 109,181 135,781 244,597 139,882 172,117 162,962 175,648 184,131 175,137 181,832 230,325 169,675 201,531 164,268 164,780 153,679 134,660 147,018 130,438 165,018 150,135 177,540 149,503 179,313 135,502 225,837 184,911 158,397 161,075 248,284 160,226 155,921 120,993 139,196 150,631 151,620 113,730 167,612 224,496

21,429 20,036 21,445 17,779 18,330 22,672 20,836 20,233 18,403 18,756 21,512 20,977 21,892 21,856 21,533 20,784 22,589 20,368 22,287 20,582 17,987 20,613 20,348 18,933 16,032 17,196 17,566 19,906 20,764 20,337 19,131 20,701 19,443 24,684 21,554 21,024 19,609 21,523 19,838 20,145 18,470 19,854 23,582 21,086 16,786 18,798 24,981

11.3 8.1 6.6 7.7 6.5 11.8 7.8 7.8 5.9 7.2 11.4 6.7 7.9 7.5 8.2 8.9 7.8 8.9 10.3 8.2 11.2 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.4 8.5 7.4 8.3 7.2 8.7 7.8 8.7 7.0 9.1 8.6 7.5 8.2 11.5 8.1 7.7 6.6 7.0 6.4 7.2 6.8 8.9 9.0

1,851,426 121,452 6,632 7,707 12,067 401 21,888 2,893 1,995 2,137 3,202 2,730 5,171 2,203 1,557 10,324 1,482 2,626 1,545 1,515 848 808 1,500 19,344 2,042 6,133 2,748 1,384 2,393 3,696 948 20,480 2,603 2,051 1,190 2,377 7,601 1,801 2,857 22,609 3,235 3,856 2,254 2,220 4,402 5,367 1,275

Footnotes to tables
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Private Rental Market Statistics Valuation Office Agency (VOA), year to March 2012 Land Registry sales data 2012 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2012 Live Tables Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) New build completions data HCA 2012/13

Homeless acceptances 2012/134

All new HA homes completed with HCA funding 2012/135 26,547 1,350 98 38 7 17 225 22 20 0 92 0 0 14 77 125 16 49 0 14 7 39 0 374 20 80 61 106 54 41 12 458 78 22 0 114 188 16 40 8 0 0 0 8 0 0 0

Total HA rented homes 20136

Total LA rented homes 20134

Unemployment rate 2012/137

HA supported housing 20136

% increase in working housing benefit recipients August 2009 to August 20138 96% 93% 85% 97% 28% 52% 82% 78% 76% 68% 85% 106% 58% 104% 98% 102% 97% 108% 101% 79% 87% 100% 174% 122% 152% 72% 111% 130% 84% 73% 108% 164% 123% 65% 114% 109% 103% 88% 97% 136% 98% 82% 83% 97% 67% 123%

50,241 3,415 169 93 481 354 61 80 32 45 41 19 76 267 1 164 25 38 39 588 13 110 199 33 23 180 30 963 30 27 52 48 626 51 129 500 26 75 10 56 180 119 34

2,392,124 131,993 7,547 10,419 9,730 1,754 22,632 7,017 1,028 1,410 3,897 6,488 1,099 797 896 13,141 3,088 2,752 2,981 1,620 608 1,559 533 22,481 5,286 6,982 1,694 1,137 934 1,828 4,620 26,637 1,036 4,697 4,965 1,993 4,125 3,849 5,972 17,652 1,847 1,198 1,138 5,048 2,313 2,084 4,024

1,681,782 183,539 13,491 22,139 27,636 1 30,174 4 5,293 9,647 0 2 4,089 8,115 3,024 16,841 0 5,823 0 3,414 1,878 4,464 1,262 21,867 0 0 7,905 3,832 3,917 6,209 4 20,670 4,837 0 0 3,784 12,047 2 0 30,720 6,876 6,918 4,631 222 6,575 5,465 33

6.4% 6.5% 8.1% 9.9% 10.3% 2.9% 5.4% 5.5% 5.4% 6.4% 3.5% 6.0% 5.6% 5.2% 4.6% 4.8% 4.5% 5.0% 3.4% 5.1% 4.0% 5.7% 5.7% 6.0% 5.5% 6.3% 7.6% 4.8% 5.6% 5.2% 6.6% 6.3% 7.9% 4.7% 5.8% 6.5% 7.2% 3.1% 7.5% 6.1% 7.6% 6.3% 5.8% 6.9% 6.4% 5.8% 4.1%

412,250 32,507 2,028 1,740 3,230 531 7,637 2,646 304 636 1,390 1,971 389 181 120 3,673 1,394 508 1,051 190 146 242 142 3,922 1,103 1,142 477 208 75 436 481 5,046 93 1,036 1,150 248 787 1,064 668 4,700 427 388 172 1,349 419 516 1,429

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Statistical Data Return - Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) 2013 Model based estimates of unemployment ONS 2012/13 Housing benefit statistics (Stat-Xplore) Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)

The National Housing Federation is the voice of affordable housing in England. We believe that everyone should have the home they need at a price they can afford. Thats why we represent the work of housing associations and campaign for better housing. Our members provide two and a half million homes for more than five million people. And each year they invest in a diverse range of neighbourhood projects that help create strong, vibrant communities.
Further information: National Housing Federation (Bristol) Tel: 0117 929 7388 bristoloffice@housing.org.uk National Housing Federation Lion Court 25 Procter Street London WC1V 6NY Tel: 020 7067 1010 www.housing.org.uk www.yestohomes.co.uk

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