Survey of Burma Public Opinion

December 24, 2013 - February 1, 2014

International Republican Institute

Detailed Methodology
Period : Survey Type : Eligibility : Total Respondents : December 24, 2013 - February 1, 2014 In-person, in-home interviews Age 18+. The survey is a national representative sample of voting age adults. n = 3,000

Data was collected by Myanmar Survey Research under the supervision of Rob Varsalone of Global Strategic Partners and the International Republican Institute. A multi-stage probability sample was used. The sample was distributed into 300 primary sampling units (PSU) which were then stratified by region. Townships were selected through the Probability-Proportionateto-Size (PPS) method and the sample was further stratified by location. The equal-sized village tracts were selected by simple random sampling (SRS) and then the PSUs were selected through PPS. Within each PSU, systematic random sampling was used to select the households. Within each household the respondent was selected through the Kish Grid.

At the midrange the survey has a confidence interval of plus and minus two percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. The response rate was 79 percent.
The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error.

This public opinion poll was funded by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States government.

Demographics
GENDER Male Female RELIGION Buddhism Christianity Islam Hinduism Other 92% 5% 2% 1% <1% 18-25 26-40 41-55 55+ REGION / STATE Ayeyarwady Yangon Sagaing Mandalay Bago East Magway Shan (North) Mon Rakhine Kachin Kayin Tanintharyi Naypyitaw Shan (South) Kayah Chin 50% 50% Urban Rural AGE 11% 30% 33% 26% LOCATION 31% 69% ETHNICITY Bamar Kayin Shan Rakhine Kachin Chin Mon Myanmar Indian Kayah Myanmar Chinese Pa-O Other* 70% 6% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 4%

MONTHLY INCOME LEVEL 1 50 USD 22% 50 - 100 USD 38% 100 - 500 USD 34% 500 - 1,000 USD 2% 1,000 - 2,000 USD 1% 2,000 or more USD <1% EDUCATION LEVEL Illiterate Literate - No School Monastic Some Primary Primary Middle High School Vocational College 9% 2% 10% 16% 37% 12% 8% 1% 6%

13% 12% 11% 11% 10% 9% 7% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1%

* Other includes Chinese, Kokang, Dhanu, Kayin and Pa-O, Chin and Bamar, Palaung, Wa, Khami, Mon and Bamar, Pathi and Tamil Income level was recorded in Burmese Kyat, the local currency, but reported in US dollars for ease of reference.

Burma Polling Locations

Plains zone Sagaing Mandalay Magway Naypyitaw Hill zone Kachin Chin Shan Kayah Kayin

Coastal zone Rakhine Bago Ayeyarwady Yangon Mon Tanintharyi

Current Developments

Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of these statements?

Democracy may have problems but it is better than any other form of government

50%

26%

3%1% 21%

Democracies are indecisive and have too much squabbling

3% 14%

20%

29%

34%

In a democracy the economic system runs badly

3% 7%

30%

39%

21%

Democracies aren't good at maintaining law and order

2% 7%

28%

37%

27%

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

DK/NR
6

What is your opinion about the trend of the following in Burma compared to a year ago? Is it increased/improved, the same or decreased/worsened?
Democratization 62% 17% 1% 20%

Increased

Stayed more or less the same

Decreased

DK/NR

Women's rights

62%

23%

1% 14%

Improved

Stayed more or less the same

Worsened

DK/NR

Ethnic / sectarian violence

14%

17%

57%

12%

Decreased

Stayed more or less the same

Increased

DK/NR
7

If parliamentary elections were held today, how likely is it that you would vote?
89%

9%

1% Would not vote

1%

Would definitely vote

Might vote

DK/NR

Why will you not vote?

I am not interested in politics I don't have enough information about the candidates I don't have time to vote I am not registered My vote won't change anything I don't think the vote will be fair I don't support any party/candidate DK/NR

30% 11% 7% 4% 4% 2% 2% 42%

8

* Would not vote or DK/NR n=57

How credible do you think the results of the 2015 parliamentary elections will be?

Were the results of the last parliamentary elections held in 2010 credible to you?

DK/NR 20% Not at all 4%

DK/NR 20% Very 33%

Yes 53%
No 27%

Somewhat 44%

In general, would you say that things in Burma are heading in the right direction or are they heading in the wrong direction?

DK/NR Wrong direction 6% 6%

Right direction 88%

10

Why do you think that things in Burma are heading in the right/wrong direction?
Right direction (Open-ended - Only responses >3% shown)
35% Roads are being paved & bridges are being built

Wrong direction (Open-ended - Only responses >3% shown)

32% 21% 12% 7% 5% 5% 3% Poor economic conditions Ethnic or sectarian violence There is no rule of law or transparency Poor transportation Political problems Traditions eroded, youth more spoiled The Constitution has not been amended

27% Economic conditions have improved

10% The rule of law has improved 6% People can speak their minds about politics

3% Support for education has increased

3% The agricultural sector has improved 8% DK/NR

3%

DK/NR

* Right direction n=2,632; Wrong direction n=182

11

How would you describe the current economic situation in Burma?

12%

73%

11%

1% 4%

Very good

Good

Bad

Very bad

DK/NR

Compared to a year ago, has your personal economic situation improved, stayed the same or worsened?
Worse 16%

Do you expect your personal economic situation in the next year to get better, stay the same or get worse?
Worse 2% DK/NR 17%

Improved 40%

Same 45%

Same 24%

Better 57%

12

What are the three biggest problems facing Burma as a whole? (Open-ended, responses >1% shown)
19% 16%

First Choice Second Choice

Third Choice

8% 6%

9% 7%

5% 4%

5% 5% 1%

5%

4%
1%

5%

2%

3%
1%

3%

1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

1%

1%1% 1% 1%1%

1%

* Dont Know / No response is not shown but accounted for 23% of first choice responses, 58% of second choices and 95% of third choices.

13

How serious of a problem would you say each of the issues below are in Burma?
Low income Unemployment Insufficient farm aid Quality healthcare Quality education Medical access Price increases Lack of infrastructure Terrorism Corruption Need for further democratic reforms Lack of water Crime Environment Housing Gender discrimination Ethnic / sectarian conflict Very 58% 58% 54% 54% 53% 52% 49% 41% 41% Somewhat Not at all DK/NR 21% 30% 32% 34% 35% 79% 79% 76% 75% 73% 72% 71% 69% 26% 26% 5% 17% 15% 16% 18% 18% 20% 20% 23% 9% 3% 1% 5%1% 5% 4% 6%1% 7% 3% 6% 3% 8% 1% 7% 2% 7%

7% 9% 20% 13% 3% 11% 4% 8% 6% 10% 17% 17% 6% 8% 8%

14

35% 35%

Generally speaking, do you think the national government is doing a good job or a bad job?

Net* +84

20% Very good job Good job

69% Bad job Very bad job DK/NR

4%1% 6%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Thein Sein is handling his job?

Net +89

43% Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove Somewhat Approve DK/NR

48%

2% <1% 6% Somewhat Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job done by the Union Parliament?

Net +60

20%

45%

4%1%

31%

Strongly approve
Strongly disapprove

Somewhat approve
DK/NR

Somewhat disapprove

* Net is calculated by the sum of very good/strongly approve and good/approve and minus the sum of very bad/strongly disapprove and bad/disapprove.

15

Please rate the national governments performance on each of the following issues:
Infrastructure development Peace process Water sanitation Gender equality Water availability Improving education Ethnic-based equality Environmental preservation Fighting crime Electricity availability Democratic reforms Delivering quality healthcare Controlling inflation Fighting corruption Poverty reduction Housing Employment 18% 17% 16% 16% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% Good 30% 47% 42% Poor Very poor 32% 56% 57% 62% 55% 53% 56% 52% 58% 42% 53% 48% 42% 42% 55% 13% 7% 2%4% 2% 11%

15% 4% 7% 10% 1% 10% 18% 4% 8% 21% 17% 7% 4% 3% 11%

17% 5% 12% 17% 4% 8% 31% 12% 1% 23% 28% 38% 25% 35% DK/NR
16

11% 3% 21% 8% 5% 20% 8% 12% 16% 7% 6% 14% 8% 5%

28% 6%

Very good

Please rate the national governments performance on each of the following issues: (Positive-negative net)*
Infrastructure development Gender equality Peace process Water sanitation Democratic reforms Ethnic-based equality Fighting crime Water availability Environmental preservation Improving education Housing Delivering quality healthcare Controlling inflation Fighting corruption Electricity availability Employment Poverty reduction -14%

78% 67% 59% 55% 52% 50% 50% 49% 44% 40% 25% 24% 23% 16% 13% 8%

* Net is calculated by the sum of very good/strongly approve and good/approve and minus the sum of very bad/strongly disapprove and bad/disapprove.

17

How would you rate each of the following institutions or organizations: very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable?
Media
Military Opposition Ruling coalition 39% 33% 43% 51% 3% 1% 14% 8% 5% 3%

25%
23% 21% 18%

45%
51% 47% 56%

9%

4%
9% 4%

16%
14%

Parliament
Police Courts Political parties

5% 1% 16%

27% 8% 3%

15%
14%

47%
45%

15%
8% 2%

5%
31%

18%

Very Favorable

Favorable

Unfavorable

Very Unfavorable

DK/NR

18

Would you welcome contact from a political party during future campaigns?
DK/NR 2% No 7%

Which of the following forms of contact would you welcome from a political party?
84% 84% 79% 64% 49% 22% 19%

Attend a neighborhood meeting Visit at home

Attend a rally
Approached in a public place

Yes 91%

Phone call SMS Email

* Yes, welcome contact from a political party n=2,722

19

Issues In Depth

Do you support the repeal of the current constitutional amendment that bans someone from becoming president if they have married a foreigner?

Knowing Aung San Suu Kyi is prevented from becoming president with the current constitution, would you now support amending the constitution so that she would be able to run?

DK/NR 15%

DK/NR 15%

No 32%

Yes 54%

No 21%

Yes 64%

21

Do you support giving the states and regions more autonomy and power so that they can make decisions for themselves, or do you think that all such power and decisions should be centralized and made by the union government?

DK/NR 8%

Autonomous Centralized
Autonomous 35%

Coastal zone Hill zone Plains zone Non-Bamar Bamar

40% 39% 25% 47% 30%

53% 55% 65% 47% 62%

Centralized 57%

22

In your opinion, how prevalent is corruption within the government in Burma?

Are you satisfied with the national governments efforts to fight corruption?

Very unsatisfied 2% DK/NR 19% Not at all 6% Very 25%

DK/NR 12% Very satisfied 30%

Somewhat unsatisfied 15%

Somewhat 50%

Somewhat satisfied 42%

23

In your opinion are people in Burma afraid to openly express their political views or not?

33%

20%

35%

7%

5%

Most are afraid

Most are not afraid DK/NR

Some are afraid

For the most part no one is afraid

24

Political Parties

Which party do you think best reflects each statement?

57%

52%
48%

44%
35% 24% 19% 25% 23% 27% 25%

42% 35%

40% 34% 26%

40% 36%

37%

37%

32% 31% 32% 31%

22%

23%

24%

They support women

They have They They care young support about leaders democratic people like reforms me

Their They are They have They have They fight policies trustworthy strong good corruption help the leadership policies poor

National League for Democracy (NLD) Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) DK/NR
26

Which party do you think would do a better job on the following:

49%

41%
37%

38% 38%

39% 33% 29%

40% 33% 27%

43%

30%

22%

24%

27%

25%

26%

Improving education

Improving healthcare

Ending ethnic Improving the Strengthening conflict economy the nation NLD USDP DK/NR

Improving security
27

What is the most important reason for you in choosing a political party?

Party leader Party platform Candidate quality Ethnicity

Family ties DK/NR 1% 13% 4% 12% 34%

36%

28

If there are two candidates campaigning for the same elected office with exactly the same qualifications, which one would you be more likely to vote for?

Man or woman
DK/NR 3% No preference 25% Woman 24%

Young or older
DK/NR 2% No preference 22% Older person 34%

Man 48%

Person new to politics or someone who has been involved in politics for a long time DK/NR 4% No preference 22% New person 19%

Young person 41%

Someone who has been around 55%

29

Media Usage

Where are you most likely to get your news and information?
Radio Friends and family TV 23% 8% 2% 2% 1% 26% 35%

Newspapers
Journal Village head Internet Magazines DK/NR

1%
2%

How often do you read news magazines or newspapers?

How often do you listen to the radio or watch TV?

8%
14% 11% 68% 27%
Almost every day Once a month Once a week Less than once a month Almost every day Once a month Once a week Less than once a month 31

24% 42% 7%

Does your household own a mobile phone?

DK/NR 1%

No 59%

Yes 40%

32

On average, how often do you use the Internet?

73%

22% 2%
Every day

2%
Few times a week

1%
Once a week

0%
Once a month

0%
Less often Never DK/NR

When you do use the Internet, from where do you most regularly access the Internet?
Cell phone Home Internet cafe Work Home of friend/family
* Often use Internet n=142 33

56% 29% 7% 5% 4%

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