Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
TINGO MARIA
FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICAS Y
ADMINISTRATIVAS
ARTICULO CIENTIFICO:
I.
TITULO
II.
AUTORES
EJECUTOR:
ASESOR:
Eco. Hugo Soto Prez
III. RESUMEN
El presente trabajo de investigacin fue desarrollado en la ciudad de Tingo
Mara, Provincia de Leoncio Prado, Regin de Hunuco Per.
El aspecto central del trabajo se refiere al estudio de la Pobreza
y el
niveles de
IV. ABSTRACT
The present work of investigation it was developed in Tingo Maria's city, Leoncio Prado's
Province, Hunuco's Region - Peru.
The central aspect of the work refers to the study of the Poverty and the Economic Growth in
Peru: 1,991 - 2,006. The proven hypothesis: "THE INCREASE OF THE POVERTY IN PERU
OWES PRINCIPALLY TO THE ECONOMIC GROWTH", whereas the aim was " To identify the
principal factors that explain the growth of the poverty in Peru ".
Methodologically the investigation was of explanatory type, as such it is orientated to the
checking of a causal hypothesis. Obviously, it included the descriptive level, because it is not
possible to explain without describing, whereas for the discussion of the results there was in use
the dialectical, deductive method and of synthesis. The compilation of the information took across
primary and Internet information. Then we try the information with a computer specializing program
Econometric Views 3.0.
Finally the hypothesis was rejected, provided that the such principal indicators as the TSTUDENT, F-STATISTIC, and probability of the coefficients show high levels of significancia to 5
% and also we can see that the Poverty in our period of study this one explained in 57.20 % for the
independent variables considered inside the model, whereas 42.80 % shows the influence of
variables not included in the model.
V. PALABRAS CLAVES
Para el desarrollo de esta investigacin planteamos los conceptos, que nos servirn de base
para la estructura de las variables; a continuacin presentamos los conceptos de algunos que son
muy importantes:
5.1. BIENES DE CONSUMO. Son todas aquellas mercancas producidas por y para
la sociedad en el territorio del pas o importadas para satisfacer directamente
5.3.
5.4.
RIQUEZA. Valor neto de dos partidas tangibles y financieras que posee un pas
o una persona .Es igual a todo el activo menos el pasivo.4
5.5.
POBREZA.
Es
la
carencia
de
recursos
necesarios
para
satisfacer
las
5.7.
1 http://www.definicion.org/bienes-de-consumo
2 http://www.definicionabc.com/economia/capital-humano.php
3 http://www.banrepcultural.org/blaavirtual/ayudadetareas/economia/econo39.htm
4 http://es.thefreedictionary.com/riqueza
5 http://www.mef.gob.pe/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=53:pobreza&lang=es
6 http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calidad_de_vida
7 http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hogar
VI. INTRODUCCIN
La presente tesis titulado, POBREZA Y CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO EN EL
PERU: 1,991 2,010, se realiz con la finalidad de ver la influencia del
CRECIMIENTO ECONMICO sobre la POBREZA
7.1.
(8)
en el vnculo
familiar.
La pobreza presenta la ausencia de ciertas capacidades bsicas para
funcionar; una persona que carece de la oportunidad para lograr algn nivel
mnimamente
aceptable
de
esos
funcionamientos
.los
funcionamientos
pertinentes de este anlisis pueden variar de los fsicos, como estar bien
nutridos, estar vestido y vivir en forma adecuada, evitar la morbilidad
prevenible, los logros sociales ms complejos, como participar en la vida de la
comunidad.
7.3.
(9)
se estn
(10)
8.1.
METODOLOGA.
Para la ejecucin de la presente investigacin se tuvo en consideracin los
siguientes mtodos:
Mtodo
Inductivo:
Con
este
mtodo
se
analiz
la
Mtodo
Comparativo:
Nos
ayud
comprender
las
8.2.
TCNICAS.
Entre las diversas tcnicas a utilizar, tendremos:
IX. RESULTADOS
9.1.
Hiptesis General.
9.2.
obs
1993:01:00
1993:02:00
1993:03:00
1993:04:00
1993:05:00
1993:06:00
1993:07:00
1993:08:00
1993:09:00
1993:10:00
1993:11:00
1993:12:00
1994:01:00
1994:02:00
1994:03:00
1994:04:00
1994:05:00
1994:06:00
1994:07:00
1994:08:00
1994:09:00
1994:10:00
1994:11:00
1994:12:00
1995:01:00
1995:02:00
1995:03:00
1995:04:00
1995:05:00
1995:06:00
1995:07:00
1995:08:00
1995:09:00
1995:10:00
1995:11:00
1995:12:00
1996:01:00
1996:02:00
1996:03:00
1996:04:00
1996:05:00
1996:06:00
1996:07:00
1996:08:00
1996:09:00
1996:10:00
1996:11:00
1996:12:00
PBISA
83.580
89.195
89.871
85.222
82.341
90.605
88.767
92.226
91.547
89.230
90.326
90.382
96.495
96.459
99.935
96.405
96.321
99.550
98.685
102.565
102.964
101.629
104.550
103.608
110.459
108.316
108.791
105.178
110.030
109.072
109.893
112.801
107.678
108.946
108.005
103.129
110.145
109.919
108.388
108.455
112.935
111.188
112.769
111.879
110.925
111.893
113.390
112.714
POBSA
57.801
57.677
57.505
57.315
57.094
56.911
56.629
56.547
56.354
56.194
55.941
55.717
49.098
48.971
48.807
48.616
48.443
48.215
48.130
47.942
47.812
47.595
47.465
47.304
46.090
46.033
45.840
45.717
45.529
45.316
45.165
45.074
44.895
44.795
44.573
44.406
44.908
44.836
44.612
44.460
44.346
44.157
43.979
43.947
43.750
43.595
43.476
43.284
obs
1997:01:00
1997:02:00
1997:03:00
1997:04:00
1997:05:00
1997:06:00
1997:07:00
1997:08:00
1997:09:00
1997:10:00
1997:11:00
1997:12:00
1998:01:00
1998:02:00
1998:03:00
1998:04:00
1998:05:00
1998:06:00
1998:07:00
1998:08:00
1998:09:00
1998:10:00
1998:11:00
1998:12:00
1999:01:00
1999:02:00
1999:03:00
1999:04:00
1999:05:00
1999:06:00
1999:07:00
1999:08:00
1999:09:00
1999:10:00
1999:11:00
1999:12:00
2000:01:00
2000:02:00
2000:03:00
2000:04:00
2000:05:00
2000:06:00
2000:07:00
2000:08:00
2000:09:00
2000:10:00
2000:11:00
2000:12:00
PBISA
119.384
116.435
112.011
120.699
118.200
118.882
118.422
118.737
121.923
121.142
117.860
122.682
117.284
119.639
119.056
118.674
112.209
117.440
117.232
120.580
120.142
116.162
117.352
121.627
115.709
117.289
118.150
115.397
117.020
120.133
119.712
117.304
121.399
121.243
123.753
122.777
121.904
124.767
129.724
119.831
126.280
126.769
124.075
122.525
118.047
120.633
120.705
116.452
POBSA
38.140
38.089
37.961
37.791
37.698
37.586
37.456
37.289
37.187
37.096
36.895
36.740
38.032
37.871
37.757
37.598
37.516
37.393
37.258
37.084
36.979
36.896
36.695
36.553
38.462
38.415
38.268
38.178
37.972
37.876
37.753
37.596
37.500
37.396
37.194
37.114
49.313
49.189
49.012
48.810
48.625
48.505
48.327
48.147
48.020
47.795
47.664
47.491
obs
2001:01:00
2001:02:00
2001:03:00
2001:04:00
2001:05:00
2001:06:00
2001:07:00
2001:08:00
2001:09:00
2001:10:00
2001:11:00
2001:12:00
2002:01:00
2002:02:00
2002:03:00
2002:04:00
2002:05:00
2002:06:00
2002:07:00
2002:08:00
2002:09:00
2002:10:00
2002:11:00
2002:12:00
2003:01:00
2003:02:00
2003:03:00
2003:04:00
2003:05:00
2003:06:00
2003:07:00
2003:08:00
2003:09:00
2003:10:00
2003:11:00
2003:12:00
2004:01:00
2004:02:00
2004:03:00
2004:04:00
2004:05:00
2004:06:00
2004:07:00
2004:08:00
2004:09:00
2004:10:00
2004:11:00
2004:12:00
PBISA
118.439
120.601
121.471
121.277
125.009
122.249
125.960
124.470
120.980
125.918
123.753
124.503
125.264
124.126
123.283
132.460
131.909
128.116
131.911
128.871
130.512
130.288
131.272
130.349
133.559
132.244
131.737
137.762
135.449
137.446
135.779
131.942
133.969
136.488
132.389
132.745
137.444
137.585
138.983
142.390
140.352
140.716
141.234
139.005
141.196
140.959
146.106
145.588
POBSA
55.330
55.174
54.946
54.802
54.544
54.399
54.158
54.089
53.854
53.694
53.448
53.287
54.792
54.630
54.435
54.319
54.089
53.915
53.664
53.577
53.333
53.194
52.949
52.726
53.181
52.998
52.900
52.676
52.450
52.273
52.083
51.938
51.770
51.594
51.453
51.230
49.528
49.407
49.216
49.003
48.899
48.698
48.525
48.352
48.229
47.995
47.864
47.678
obs
2005:01:00
2005:02:00
2005:03:00
2005:04:00
2005:05:00
2005:06:00
2005:07:00
2005:08:00
2005:09:00
2005:10:00
2005:11:00
2005:12:00
2006:01:00
2006:02:00
2006:03:00
2006:04:00
2006:05:00
2006:06:00
2006:07:00
2006:08:00
2006:09:00
2006:10:00
2006:11:00
2006:12:00
2007:01:00
2007:02:00
2007:03:00
2007:04:00
2007:05:00
2007:06:00
2007:07:00
2007:08:00
2007:09:00
2007:10:00
2007:11:00
2007:12:00
2008:01:00
2008:02:00
2008:03:00
2008:04:00
2008:05:00
2008:06:00
2008:07:00
2008:08:00
2008:09:00
2008:10:00
2008:11:00
2008:12:00
PBISA
145.214
148.695
145.222
151.838
150.247
150.334
149.565
149.343
151.042
150.411
157.993
157.090
153.719
156.600
162.130
158.007
160.233
160.434
161.368
165.106
162.669
165.655
169.678
171.467
169.154
170.166
173.904
170.444
175.303
171.976
176.840
177.083
179.218
183.542
184.207
188.815
188.264
191.957
185.981
194.352
190.010
194.290
195.387
195.814
199.958
200.412
194.774
197.728
POBSA
49.635
49.407
49.319
49.099
48.990
48.794
48.624
48.455
48.333
48.095
47.963
47.771
45.338
45.162
45.021
44.943
44.710
44.543
44.374
44.255
44.166
43.995
43.775
43.658
43.189
43.095
42.975
42.817
42.616
42.417
42.299
42.206
42.083
41.895
41.781
41.601
38.032
37.871
37.757
37.598
37.516
37.393
37.258
37.084
36.979
36.896
36.695
36.553
obs
2009:01:00
2009:02:00
2009:03:00
2009:04:00
2009:05:00
2009:06:00
2009:07:00
2009:08:00
2009:09:00
2009:10:00
2009:11:00
2009:12:00
2010:01:00
2010:02:00
2010:03:00
2010:04:00
2010:05:00
2010:06:00
2010:07:00
2010:08:00
2010:09:00
2010:10:00
2010:11:00
2010:12:00
2011:01:00
2011:02:00
2011:03:00
2011:04:00
2011:05:00
2011:06:00
2011:07:00
2011:08:00
2011:09:00
2011:10:00
2011:11:00
2011:12:00
2012:01:00
2012:02:00
2012:03:00
2012:04:00
2012:05:00
2012:06:00
2012:07:00
2012:08:00
2012:09:00
2012:10:00
2012:11:00
2012:12:00
PBISA
193.934
192.171
190.812
190.978
191.009
189.577
193.006
194.791
200.063
203.664
202.089
207.504
201.494
203.067
207.820
208.620
207.804
212.373
210.561
212.908
220.069
220.941
222.715
226.098
220.814
220.051
223.922
224.623
223.055
224.203
224.843
229.184
232.115
233.340
233.282
240.475
232.889
235.327
236.703
234.938
238.943
240.843
241.803
244.026
246.674
249.296
249.132
250.826
POBSA
36.206
36.021
35.915
35.858
35.695
35.557
35.381
35.342
35.208
35.096
35.000
34.777
31.371
31.233
31.208
31.122
30.960
30.823
30.736
30.630
30.521
30.397
30.314
30.196
28.363
28.186
28.138
28.029
27.955
27.827
27.771
27.659
27.604
27.497
27.422
27.298
26.322
26.227
26.092
26.000
25.952
25.798
25.696
25.713
25.625
25.497
25.428
25.335
9.3.
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
PBISA
65.19569
-0.150116
1.305305
0.008416
49.94672
-17.83606
0.0000
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
0.572039
0.570240
42.85981
8.701922
S.E. of regression
5.704636
6.328734
7745.204
Schwarz criterion
6.357739
F-statistic
318.1249
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
-757.4481
0.048402
Estimation Command:
=====================
LS POBSA C PBISA
Estimation Equation:
=====================
POBSA = C(1) + C(2)*PBISA
Substituted Coefficients:
=====================
POBSA = 65.1956932 - 0.1501160261*PBISA
Coefficient
34.32032
-0.024784
AR(1)
0.990358
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
0.981518
0.981362
1.183103
330.3372
-377.8025
1.987508
Inverted AR Roots
Std. Error
16.17974
0.023271
t-Statistic
2.121192
-1.065042
0.009820
100.8536
Prob.
0.0349
0.2879
0.0000
42.79730
8.666012
3.186632
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
3.230270
6266.694
0.000000
.99
Estimation Command:
=====================
LS POBSA C PBISA AR(1)
Estimation Equation:
=====================
POBSA = C(1) + C(2)*PBISA + [AR(1)=C(3)]
Substituted Coefficients:
=====================
POBSA = 34.32032395 - 0.02478406788*PBISA + [AR(1)=0.9903581182]
porque
estadsticamente la variable pbi posee una probabilidad mayor al 5%, por lo que
se rechaza su influencia en la pobreza en el Per en el perodo de estudio.
10
X. DISCUSION.
Finalmente en el cuadro N 03 observamos que la variable independiente
pbi no explica el comportamiento de la pobreza en el pas en el periodo de
estudio ya que la probabilidad del coeficiente es mayor al 5%, por lo tanto se
rechaza la hiptesis planteada al inicio la presente investigacin la misma que
nos dice que:
El Crecimiento Econmico es el factor que influye en la Pobreza
De acuerdo a la investigacin la nueva hiptesis seria:
XI. CONCLUSIONES
1.
2.
un ayuda
4.
XII. BIBLIOGRAFA
11
1.
BOURGUIGNON
Francois
CHRISTIAN
Morrison
(2002),
P. 733.
para
redaccin
presentacin
de
documentos
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
www.inei.gob.pe/pobreza/resumen.htm
12.
http://www.socialwatch.org/es/informeImpreso/pdfs/peru200
6_esp.pdf.
12