SHORT TERM LOAD FORECASTING IN POWER SYSTEM USING NEUROFUZZY

Sunil Kumar*
Dept. of ECE DGI, Gr. Noida, U.P., India 874480 !40 S"mee 07#$mail.%om

Kapil De& S'arma

Dept. (f Ele%troni%) En$$. DGI, Gr. Noida, U.P., India !808007888 Kd)'arma.en#$mail.%om

*a+ee& *an+an
Dept. of Ele%tri%al , Ele%troni%) En$$. DGI, Gr. Noida, U.P., India -el.No. E.mail of aut'or

ABSTRACT ABSTRACT
S'ort.term load fore%a)tin$ /S-012 i) a ne%e))ar3 dail3 ta)" for po4er di)pat%'. It) a%%ura%3 affe%t) t'e e%onomi% operation and relia5ilit3 of t'e )3)tem. -'i) paper pre)ent) a )olution met'odolo$3 u)in$ fu663 lo$i% approa%' and artifi%ial neural net4or" for )'ort term load fore%a)tin$ and i) implemented on 'i)tori%al 4eat'er )en)iti&e data i.e. temperature, 'umidit3, 4ind )peed and 'i)tori%al load data for fore%a)tin$ t'e load. -'e propo)ed fu663 lo$i% approa%' i) implemented on 4eat'er )en)iti&e data and t'e a%%ura%3 of t'e re)ult i) %ompared u)in$ t4o different mem5er)'ip fun%tion). 7rtifi%ial neural net4or" approa%' i) implemented on t'e propo)ed non.full3 %onne%ted neural net4or" %on)i)t) of fi&e full3 %onne%ted )upportin$ net4or") repre)entin$ 4eat'er &aria5le), da3 t3pe and load data a) input).
Keywords 0oad fore%a)tin$, Nueral model, 1u663 lo$i%, Neurofu663.

1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION
1u663 )3)tem) and neural net4or") 'a&e attra%ted t'e intere)t of re)ear%'er) in &ariou) )%ientifi% and en$ineerin$ area). -'e num5er and &ariet3 of appli%ation) of fu663 lo$i% and neural net4or") 'a&e 5een in%rea)in$, ran$in$ from %on)umer produ%t) and indu)trial pro%e)) %ontrol to medi%al in)trumentation , information )3)tem) and de%i)ion anal3)i) .-'e main idea of fu663 lo$i% %ontrol /10C2 i) to 5uild a model of a 'uman %ontrol e8pert 4'o i) %apa5le of %ontrollin$ t'e plant 4it'out t'in"in$ in term) of a mat'emati%al model. -'e %ontrol e8pert )pe%ifie) 'i) %ontrol a%tion) in t'e form of lin$ui)ti% rule). -'e)e %ontrol rule) are tran) lated into t'e frame4or" of fu663 )et t'eor3 pro&idin$ a %al%ulu) 4'i%' %an )imulate t'e 5e'a&ior of t'e %ontrol e8pert. -'e )pe%ifi%ation of $ood lin$ui)ti% rule) depend) on t'e "no4led$e of t'e %ontrol e8pert, 5ut t'e tran)lation of t'e)e rule) into fu663 )et t'eor3 frame4or" i) not formali6ed and ar5itrar3 %'oi%e) %on%ernin$, for e8ample, t'e )'ape of mem5er)'ip fun%tion) 'a&e to 5e made. -'e 9ualit3 of fu663 lo$i% %ontroller %an 5e dra)ti%all3 affe%ted 53 t'e %'oi%e of mem5er)'ip fun%tion). -'u), met'od) for tunin$ fu663 lo$i% %ontroller) are ne%e))ar3 neural net4or") offer t'e po))i5ilit3 of )ol&in$ t'e pro5lem of tunin$. 7lt'ou$' a neural net4or" i) a5le to learn from t'e $i&en data, t'e

trained neural net4or" i) $enerall3 under)tood a) a 5la%" 5o8. Neit'er it i) po))i5le to e8tra%t )tru%tural information from t'e trained neural net4or" nor %an 4e inte$rate )pe%ial information into t'e neural net4or" in order to )implif3 t'e learnin$ pro%edure. (n t'e ot'er 'and, a fu663 lo$i% %ontroller i) de)i$ned to 4or" 4it' t'e )tru%tured "no4led$e in t'e form of rule) and nearl3 e&er3t'in$ in t'e fu663 )3)tem remain) 'i$'l3 tran)parent and ea)il3 interpreta5le. :o4e&er, t'ere e8i)t) no formal frame4or" for t'e %'oi%e of &ariou) de)i$n parameter) and optimi6ation of t'e)e parameter) $enerall3 i) done 53 trial and error. Com5ination of neural net4or") and fu663 lo$i% offer) t'e po))i5ilit3 of )ol&in$ tunin$ pro5lem) and de)i$n diffi%ultie) of fu663 lo$i%. -'e re)ultin$ net4or" 4ill 5e more tran)parent and %an 5e ea)il3 re%o$ni6ed in t'e form of fu663 lo$i% %ontrol rule) or )emanti%). -'i) ne4 approa%' %om5ine) t'e 4ell e)ta5li)'ed ad&anta$e) of 5ot' t'e met'od) and a&oid) t'e dra45a%") of 5ot'. In t'i) paper, neuro.fu663 %ontroller ar%'ite%ture i) propo)ed, 4'i%' i) an impro&ement o&er t'e e8i)tin$ neuro fu663 %ontroller). It o&er%ome) t'e ma+or dra45a%") of t'e e8i)tin$ neuro.fu663 approa%'e); of eit'er "eepin$ neural net4or") and fu663 lo$i% a) )eparate entitie) /%o.operati&e model)2 4or"in$ to4ard) a %ommon $oal or in mo)t of t'e e8i)tin$ neuro.fu663 approa%'e), t'e trained %ontroller no lon$er %an 5e interpreted a) fu663 lo$i% %ontroller.

2. S'()T T*)+ L(A, F()*-AST.N/ 2. S'()T T*)+ L(A, F()*-AST.N/

Ele%tri%al load fore%a)tin$ i) an e))ential tool u)ed to en)ure t'at ener$3 )upplied 53 utilitie) meet t'e load plu) t'e ener$3 lo)t in t'e )3)tem. It i) a %entral and inte$ral pro%e)) in t'e plannin$ and operation of ele%tri% utilitie). 0oad fore%a)tin$ 'elp) an ele%tri% utilit3 to ma"e important de%i)ion) on pur%'a)in$ and $eneratin$ ele%tri% po4er. Factors Affecting Accurate Load Forecast /i2 <eat'er Influen%e, /ii2 -ime fa%tor),/iii2 E%onom3,/i&2 Cu)tomer %la)) 2.1 Short Term Load Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networ 2.1.1 Neural Networ 7 Neural net4or" i) an artifi%ial repre)entation of t'e 'uman 5rain t'at trie) to )imulate t'e learnin$ pro%e)). It re)em5le) t'e 5rain in t4o re)pe%t)= >. Kno4led$e i) a%9uired 53 t'e net4or" from it) en&ironment t'rou$' a learnin$ pro%e)). . Interneuron %onne%tion )tren$t'), "no4n a) )3napti% 4ei$'t), are u)ed to )tore t'e a%9uired "no4led$e. -'e pro%edure u)ed to perform t'e learnin$ pro%e)) i) %alled a learnin$ al$orit'm, t'e fun%tion of 4'i%' i) to modif3 t'e )3napti% 4ei$'t) of t'e net4or" in an orderl3 fa)'ion to attain a de)ired de)i$n o5+e%ti&e. 2.1.2 Artificial Neuron Neuron i) t'e 5a)i% 5uildin$ 5lo%" of an artifi%ial neural net4or". In %al%ulatin$ t'e output of t'e neuron, t'e a%ti&ation fun%tion ma3 5e in t'e form of a t're)'old fun%tion, if a t're)'old le&el i) rea%'ed, t'e output of t'e neuron i) ?> and 0 ot'er4i)e. -'e 5a)i% %omponent) of artifi%ial neuron are )ummari6ed a)=. @ <ei$'tin$ 1a%tor), @ Summation 1un%tion, @ -ran)fer 1un%tion A 7%ti&ation 1un%tion @ S%alin$ and 0imitin$, @ (utput 1un%tion, @ Error 1un%tion and Ba%".propa$ated Calue @ 0earnin$ 1un%tion. 2.2 ANN Techni!ue for Short Term Load Forecasting -'e artifi%ial neural net4or" /7NN2 te%'ni9ue to )'ort.term load fore%a)tin$ 'a) $ained a $reat deal of intere)t and )e&eral re)ear%'er) 'a&e reported t'e effe%ti&ene)) of t'e 7NN approa%'. -'e 7NN te%'ni9ue) 'a&e 5een applied to %orrelate t'e 4eat'er information and t'e load &ariation) to fore%a)t t'e dail3 pea" load and 'ourl3 load. 2.2.1"ro#lem Formulation -'e propo)ed de&elopment and implementation of ne4 7NN 5a)ed te%'ni9ue for t'e )'ort.term load fore%a)tin$ of 4eat'er )en)iti&e load) %on)i)t of four )ta$e). -'e 7NN model u)ed a non full3.%onne%ted neural net4or" %on)i)tin$ of one main and four )upportin$ neural net4or". Data )ele%tion and anal3)i) for )ele%tion of num5er of input &aria5le) t'ere i) no 5a)i% rule. It i) %arried out almo)t entirel3 on 'it and trial 5a)i). 2.$ Short Term Load Forecasting Using Fu%%y Logic 2.$.1 Fu%%y Logic & Fu%%y Sets 7 fu663 )et, a) t'e name implie), i) a )et 4it'out a %ri)p 5oundar3. -'at i), t'e tran)ition from D5elon$ to a )etE to Dnot 5elon$ to a )etE i) $radual, and t'i) )moot' tran)ition i) %'ara%teri6ed 53 mem5er)'ip fun%tion) t'at $i&e fu663 )et) fle8i5ilit3 in modelin$ %ommonl3 u)ed lin$ui)ti% e8pre))ion), )u%' a) D4ater i) 'otE or Dt'e temperature i) 'i$'E. 7 fu663 )et e8pre))e) t'e de$ree to 4'i%' an element 5elon$) to a )et. :en%e t'e %'ara%teri)ti% fun%tion of a

fu663 )et i) allo4ed to 'a&e &alue) 5et4een 0 and >, 4'i%' denote) t'e de$ree of mem5er)'ip of an element in a $i&en )et. If F i) a %olle%tion of o5+e%t) denoted $enerall3 53 8, t'en a fu663 )et 7 in F i) defined a) a )et of ordered pair) <'ere G7/82 i) %alled t'e mem5er)'ip fun%tion /H12 for t'e fu663 )et 7. -'e H1 map) ea%' element of F to a mem5er)'ip $rade 5et4een 0 and >. 1u663 I1 -:EN *ule) 7 fu663 if.t'en rule /fu663 rule, fu663 impli%ation, or fu663 %onditional )tatement2 i) e8pre))ed a) follo4= I1 8 i) 7 -:EN 3 i) B 4'ere 7 and B lin$ui)ti% &alue) defined 53 fu663 )et). D8 i) 7E i) %alled Dante%edentE or Dpremi)eE, 4'ile D3 i) BE i) %alled t'e D%on)e9uen%eE or D%on%lu)ion. 2.$.2 Fu%%y inference Systems 0F.S1 -'e fu663 inferen%e )3)tem i) a popular %omputin$ frame4or" 5a)ed on t'e %on%ept of fu663 )et t'eor3, fu663 if.t'en rule), and fu663 rea)onin$.

1i$.4.> 1u663 rule

S'ort term

1i$.4. 1u663 rule me%'ani)m

1i$.4.I 1u663 mem5er)'ip fun%tion input plot -'e)e fi&e )tep), )upplemented 53 t'e re)olution of %onfli%t) and in%orporation of e8pert opinion, %on)titute t'e %on)tru%tion of t'e fu663 rule 5a)e for trape6oidal mem5er)'ip fun%tion.

1i$.4.4 1u663 mem5er)'ip fun%tion input plot

1i$.4.J 1u663 mem5er)'ip fun%tion input plot

1i$.4.K 1u663 mem5er)'ip fun%tion input plot

1i$.4.7 1u663 mem5er)'ip fun%tion oAp plot

2.2 Neuro3Fu%%y +odels 7 neuro.fu663 /N12 model i) a fu663 )3)tem dra4n in a neural net4or" )tru%ture, %om5inin$ t'e learnin$, parallel pro%e))in$ and $enerali6ation %apa5ilitie) of neural net4or") and lo$i%alit3, tran)paren%3 and u)e of a priori "no4led$e in fu663 )3)tem). 7 lo%al linear neuro.fu663 )3)tem, a) a nota5le %ate$or3 of N1 model), de%ompo)e) an a priori un"no4n $lo5al nonlinear )3)tem into a )erie) of lo%al linear model) and t'en trie) to %arr3 out t'e )impler ta)" of identif3in$ parameter) of linear )u5.model).

3. S.+ULAT.(N AN, )*SULT ANAL4S.S 3. S.+ULAT.(N AN, )*SULT ANAL4S.S

-'e di))ertation 4or" 'a) 5een fo%u)ed on t'e preliminar3 in&e)ti$ation of fea)i5ilit3 and performan%e of fu663 lo$i% model and artifi%ial neural net4or" model to %arr3 out )'ort term load fore%a)tin$ on 'ourl3 5a)i) and pea" load demand predi%tion for 4ee"da3) and 4ee"end da3). *eal time data t'at in%lude) 'i)tori%al 'ourl3 load demand o&er a 4ee", and 4eat'er data in term) of temperature, 'umidit3, 4ind )peed, i) %olle%ted from, Ha'ara)'tra Cid3ut Para)aran Ni$am /HCN2. -'e fore%a)ted load i) %ompared 4it' t'e a%tual load and a&era$e per%enta$e error i) %al%ulated.

1i$.K.> -'e a5o&e fi$ i) )'o4in$ t'e re)pon)e of fore%a)tin$ for different )e))ion, in rainin$ )ea)on load i) re9uired more.

-ran)for med real load

-ran)for med )%aled load

-ime/Da32 1i$.K. -'e a5o&e fi$ure )'o4 t'e load fore%a)tin$ of *eal load &) )%aled load

-ime/Hont'2 1i$.K.I -'e a5o&e fi$. i) )'o4in$ t'e load fore%a)tin$ of different time

1i$.K.4 -'e a5o&e fi$ure i) )'o4 t'e Surfa%e rule of fore%a)tin$

Defle%ted

*eal load fore%a)tin$

1i$.K.J -ime/Da32

3.CONCLUSION 3.CONCLUSION

-'i) paper 'a) propo)ed a )op'i)ti%ated )'ort.term ener$3 demand fore%a)tin$ approa%' 5a)ed on t'e :P filter, HI. 5a)ed input )ele%tion al$orit'm and S0N1 model. E8tra%tion of t'e trend and %3%li% %omponent) of t'e demand )erie) and effe%ti&e input )ele%tion 53 t'e HI te%'ni9ue, %on)idera5l3 impro&ed t'e modelin$ performan%e of t'e S0N1 net4or". Bot' lo%al and $lo5al e)timation of rule %on)e9uent parameter) of t'e S0N1 model 4ere %on)idered RE re)ult) in 'i$'er modelin$ performan%e. and it 4a) demon)trated t'at t'e $lo5al e)timation te%'ni9ue RE

FE FE RE RE L>M. U.S. Ener$3 Information 7dmini)tration /EI72.NC 7&aila5le online= 'ttp=AA444.eia.$o& /a%%e))ed on J Nune NC ES 0>>2. ES L M. :arri), N.0.; 0iu, 0.H. D3nami% )tru%tural anal3)i) and fore%a)tin$ of re)idential ele%tri%it3 %on)umption. Int. J.

Forecast. 2556, 9, 4I7O4JJ. LIM. Edi$era, C.; 7"ar5, S. 7*IH7 fore%a)tin$ of primar3 ener$3 demand 53 fuel in -ur"e3. Energy Policy 2556, 35, >70>O>708. L4M. Bian%oa, C.; Han%a, (.; Nardinia, S. Ele%tri%it3 %on)umption fore%a)tin$ in Ital3 u)in$ linear re$re))ion model). Energy 2557, 34, >4>IO>4 >. LJM. 76ade', 7.; K'a"e)tani, H.; Sa5eri, K., D7 fle8i5le fu663 re$re))ion al$orit'm for fore%a)tin$ oil %on)umption e)timationE. Energy Policy 2557, 37, JJK7OJJ7!. LKM. S'a"ouri, :.; Nadimia, G.; G'aderia, 1. D7 '35rid -SK.1* model to )tud3 )'ort.term &ariation) of t'e ele%tri%it3 demand versus t'e temperature %'an$e)E. Expert Syst. Appl. 2558, 36, >7KJO>77 . L7M. 76ade', 7.; 7ra5, *.; Be'fard, S., D 7n adapti&e intelli$ent al$orit'm for fore%a)tin$lon$term$a)oline demand e)timation= -'e %a)e) of US7, Canada, Napan, Ku4ait and IranE. Expert Syst. Appl. 2515, 37, 74 7O74I7. L8M. Po"o3ama, *.; <a"ui, -.; Sata"e, *., D Predi%tion of ener$3 demand) u)in$ neural net4or" 4it' model identifi%ation 53 $lo5al optimi6ationE. Energy onvers. !anag. "ol. 2557, 5#, I>!OI 7. L>0M. :a'n, :.; He3er.Nie5er$, S.; Pi%"l, S., D Ele%tri% load fore%a)tin$ met'od)= -ool) for de%i)ion ma"in$E. Eur. J. $per. %es. 2557, &99, !0 O!07. L>>M. Su$ant'i, 0.; Samuel, 7. DEner$3 model) for demand fore%a)tin$= 7 re&ie4E. %ene'. Sustain. Energy %ev. 2511, &#, 8>OI>>. L> M. C'en, -., D 7 %olla5orati&e fu663.neural approa%' for lon$.term load fore%a)tin$ in -ai4anE. o(put. In). Eng.* 2511, doi=>0.>0>KA+.%ie. 0>>.0K.00I. L>IM. 76ade', 7.; 7)ad6ade', S.H.; G'an5ari, 7. D7n adapti&e net4or".5a)ed fu663 inferen%e )3)tem for )'ort. term natural $a) demand e)timation= Un%ertain and %omple8 en&ironment)E. Energy Policy 2515, 3+, >J !O>JIK. L>4M N.P. *ot'e, 7.K. <ad'4ani, S. <ad'4ani, D:35rid and inte$rated approa%' to )'ort term load fore%a)tin$E, IEEE -ran)a%tion) on Po4er S3)tem), &ol. , i))ue > , pp. 7> 7.7>I , 0>0. L>JM Qu'aim3I)mailaand *o)naliniHan)or5, D1u663 0o$i% 7pproa%' for 1ore%a)tin$ :alf'ourl3 Hala3)ia Ele%tri%it3 0oad DemandE, International S3mpo)ium on 1ore%a)tin$ O Pra$ue pro%eedin$), pp.>.>K, Nul3 0>>. A99endi: 0ma8RBma8 *eSCma8 , 0minR Bma8* eSCmin ,B/"2ma8 R B/"2minR H7PERH7F/ , R 2*>00 ,HSPER , R */i2/ . 2?